The Arms (Errr, Legs) Race: 2022 Summer Transfer Window

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Lots of FDJ to Manchester United chatter going on right now.

My gut instinct is that Barcelona wants to sell him. They need the money to fund other priorities and a plan to sell FDJ would explain their aggressive pursuit of Kessie, who essentially plays the same position as one of the 8s in the 4-3-3. It just doesn't really make sense to have Pedri, Gavi, FDJ, and Kessie competing for two positions when the team has other needs and is financially strapped.

No idea whether FDJ wants United, or has other suitors (Bayern has been rumored, but not very concretely). He is reportedly on big wages and United is one of the handful of clubs in the world that could pay them.
 

Jimy Hendrix

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Not directly transfer related, but in general off-season news, Ralf Ragnick will not be staying on at United in a consulting role, as was originally planned following his term as interim manager this season.
https://www.espn.com/soccer/manchester-united-engman_utd/story/4677047/manchester-united-announce-ralf-rangnick-wont-stay-as-consultant
Seemed like this was the only way it was going to go, but it is also very modern Man U that Rangnick was put into a position as manager which he was not well suited for which then torpedoed his chance to be involved in modernizing the overall club structure of Man U, a project which it seems like he would be much better suited for.
 

dirtynine

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Newcastle just poached Brighton’s sporting director, Dan Ashworth. He’s made some very shrewd moves for the club recently. Happy he’s getting paid, tip of the cap, but it sucks for Brighton. Hope they have a worthy successor in the wings.
 

67YAZ

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The Guardian reporting Ekitike from Reims to Newcastle for £25m. Interesting because Dortmund had been in on him as their Haaland replacement (not that Ekitike is THAT good, but he’s a very talented 20 year old). Will be interesting to see if Newcastle start targeting emerging talent like this. Plus, a palindrome name is super fun.

Lingard released on a free. Does he reunite with Moyes?
 

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
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James Tarkowski strongly rumored to Everton on a free.

Good business if so. CB was a problem this season, with Mina's constant injuries, Keane's problems with low confidence, gaffes, etc., and Godfrey having regressed, seemingly due to his bout with COVID. Tarkowski is not a glamor signing but Everton have done far too many of those. He is solid, competent, and has played 30+ games a season most of his career.

Mee also rumored to be looking for a way out of Burnley. What is Burnley if not centre-backs? If they lose those two Burnley is looking at a freefall down the Championship table.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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James Tarkowski strongly rumored to Everton on a free.

Good business if so. CB was a problem this season, with Mina's constant injuries, Keane's problems with low confidence, gaffes, etc., and Godfrey having regressed, seemingly due to his bout with COVID. Tarkowski is not a glamor signing but Everton have done far too many of those. He is solid, competent, and has played 30+ games a season most of his career.

Mee also rumored to be looking for a way out of Burnley. What is Burnley if not centre-backs? If they lose those two Burnley is looking at a freefall down the Championship table.
I love the Tarkowski deal for Everton assuming the wages aren't crazy.

Burnley have some massive financial issues. I think they're going to be one of these clubs that drop down and don't come back to the PL for a long time. IMO, we are more likely to see them going to League One than the PL in coming years.
 

67YAZ

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Looks like Gaga to Madrid has some substance. Slonina is a long way from being even back up quality for a mega club, so it will important for Slonina to get some kind of guarantees about loans & development plans so that he isn’t another casualty in the loan army.

 

rguilmar

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Playing for Real's B team in the Segunda for a year or two would probably be a decent next step, hopefully then a loan to another La Liga side.
Not to take away from your overall point but Real’s B team (Real Castilla) are in the Primera Division RFEF which is the Spanish third tier.

I imagine Lunin, Real’s backup GK, will be looking for a move away from Madrid. He’s 23, pretty solid, and must know he won’t be getting the starting gig anytime soon. I doubt they’d even consider Gaga for that role, likely finding a solid veteran. However this could mean Madrid see Gaga as the long term replacement for Courtois. A few years for the B team followed by some loan spells in the segunda and La Liga could be the plan assuming he pans out.
 

Warning Track Speed

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Newcastle just poached Brighton’s sporting director, Dan Ashworth. He’s made some very shrewd moves for the club recently. Happy he’s getting paid, tip of the cap, but it sucks for Brighton. Hope they have a worthy successor in the wings.
And speaking of Ashworth's shrewd moves, lots of credible (?) rumors that Cucurella is on his way to Manchester City. This also sucks--player of the year for Brighton this year, just a tireless runner and a real pleasure to watch.
 

Zososoxfan

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And speaking of Ashworth's shrewd moves, lots of credible (?) rumors that Cucurella is on his way to Manchester City. This also sucks--player of the year for Brighton this year, just a tireless runner and a real pleasure to watch.
I wonder if Pep knows his from Barca. It seems unlikely that they would've overlapped in any meaningful way, but I'm sure Pep still has friends in Catalunya.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Crazy money for a CM. The only other CM ever sold above €75m was Pogba.

Real Madrid does have insane midfield depth now with Modric, Kroos, Casemiro, Camavinga, Tchouameni, and Valverde, even if Modric probably retires or goes to MLS after next year. Valverde is a good player who seems likely to fall by the wayside a bit. Some other club might end up getting a bargain on him in a year or two.

View: https://twitter.com/FabrizioRomano/status/1534158153704685568
 

HowBoutDemSox

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They’ve used Valverde as a winger as well, that may wind up being his primary position going forward.
 

Zososoxfan

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Crazy money for a CM. The only other CM ever sold above €75m was Pogba.

Real Madrid does have insane midfield depth now with Modric, Kroos, Casemiro, Camavinga, Tchouameni, and Valverde, even if Modric probably retires or goes to MLS after next year. Valverde is a good player who seems likely to fall by the wayside a bit. Some other club might end up getting a bargain on him in a year or two.

View: https://twitter.com/FabrizioRomano/status/1534158153704685568
Modric is a treasure, but I think Kroos' days in big matches are over. Casemiro could fall off a cliff at any moment. So this looks to me like a clunky season of having the future MF (Camavinga, Tchou, Valverde) simultaneously on the squad as the old guard.
 

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
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No official media outlets yet, but several accounts on Everton Twitter and Facebook who are usually pretty good are saying that Tarkowski to Everton on a free is a done deal.
 

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
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Seriously: Tarkowski may have less “talent” than Keane, but is more dependable, with the ball at his feet and defensively. I’m happy with it.
 

Kliq

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Yeah he wasn't going anywhere with Tottenham and now he has some stability, can play UCL games, and should be right in the mix for a prime USMNT spot for the World Cup this winter.
 

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
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Rumors of Richarlison to Spurs
Don’t see it making sense for either Spurs or Richarlison.

R’s heat map is close to Son’s. He’s not as effective centrally or on the right. It would be an overpay for Spurs at the rumored price of 60m to get essentially a backup for Son. And Richy wants steady time to keep his place for Brazil.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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That's a wild price for Richarlison given that Gabriel Jesus is likely to cost in the £40-45m range and Leeds reportedly wants around £47m for Raphinha.

I bet Conte loves Richarlison though. He seems like his kind of player.
 

Kliq

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Richarlison just makes no sense for Spurs. He's too expensive to be a bench player; and it will be like Chelsea a few years ago when they just kept buying attackers and ignoring everything else. With Perisic aboard, Kulu looking like a star in the making, Kane and Son, potentially Bale coming in on a free, plus we don't totally know the future of Bergwijn (I still believe in Stevie B!) and Lucas (an imperfect, but useful player off the bench). Richarlison seems like a waste, unless they are selling Kane or Son.
 

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
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Richarlison just makes no sense for Spurs. He's too expensive to be a bench player; and it will be like Chelsea a few years ago when they just kept buying attackers and ignoring everything else. With Perisic aboard, Kulu looking like a star in the making, Kane and Son, potentially Bale coming in on a free, plus we don't totally know the future of Bergwijn (I still believe in Stevie B!) and Lucas (an imperfect, but useful player off the bench). Richarlison seems like a waste, unless they are selling Kane or Son.
Right.

Richarlison wants CL football but he also wants to play every day. He’s not going to get both of those because, and this is not to damn him by faint praise, most players of his level don’t start week in and week out-for a CL side in a top 5 league.

He could start at an Ajax, Porto, or Bentsikas if hr wanted regular CL football, or he could be a 2000-2500/minute player at a top side. Thst hes Brazils 9 mostly has to do with the peculiarities of their current roster. He can play as a9 but he’s not a 9. He can be a false nine or on the left of a front three. He excels running at goal, he can score golazos, he’s got a nice touch but not truly world class striker consistency, he can pass but not with the vision or precision of a true playmaker, he’s a decent header but he’s not that big. He tracks back, wins balls, and defends much better than most forward players, and he’s got a nonstop motor. That’s a great player to have but not a talisman of a side with serious CL aspirations.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Richarlison just makes no sense for Spurs. He's too expensive to be a bench player; and it will be like Chelsea a few years ago when they just kept buying attackers and ignoring everything else. With Perisic aboard, Kulu looking like a star in the making, Kane and Son, potentially Bale coming in on a free, plus we don't totally know the future of Bergwijn (I still believe in Stevie B!) and Lucas (an imperfect, but useful player off the bench). Richarlison seems like a waste, unless they are selling Kane or Son.
With the packed fixture list and move to the five subs rule, everybody is going to need more depth, especially quality depth, this season.

The last couple years have also been pretty anomalous in terms of Kane and Son's usage and availability. They've both clocked 3000+ league minutes the last two years (Kane had done that only twice previously, Son had never done it) and that's unlikely to continue, especially as they get older. With the CL, Spurs are now also in a situation where they're going to want to play Kane and Son every European match if they're available, which wasn't the case the last couple years.

IMO, a high quality forward who can play both CF and on the wings and rotate with Kane/Son is a pretty big need. And Bergwijn hasn't done anything over 2.5 years to show that he is that guy.
 

Kliq

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With the packed fixture list and move to the five subs rule, everybody is going to need more depth, especially quality depth, this season.

The last couple years have also been pretty anomalous in terms of Kane and Son's usage and availability. They've both clocked 3000+ league minutes the last two years (Kane had done that only twice previously, Son had never done it) and that's unlikely to continue, especially as they get older. With the CL, Spurs are now also in a situation where they're going to want to play Kane and Son every European match if they're available, which wasn't the case the last couple years.

IMO, a high quality forward who can play both CF and on the wings and rotate with Kane/Son is a pretty big need. And Bergwijn hasn't done anything over 2.5 years to show that he is that guy.
I don't disagree with anything you wrote, except the last part about it being a high need. Spurs have a flawed roster and they don't have the resources to pay that kind of price for Richarlison while also filling the more pressing needs (specifically at wingback and midfield) that the team absolutely needs to fill if they want to win anything next season. Richarlison smashing the Spurs transfer record by 20 million pounds just doesn't make much sense. Getting Richarlison would be nice in the way it was nice for City to pick up Grealish last season, but Spurs aren't at the same level financially to invest like that.

Bergwijn's issue is that he hasn't been able to get into the rotation under Conte. When he has played Statsbomb likes him; and he's been a good player at the international level.
 

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
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With the packed fixture list and move to the five subs rule, everybody is going to need more depth, especially quality depth, this season.

The last couple years have also been pretty anomalous in terms of Kane and Son's usage and availability. They've both clocked 3000+ league minutes the last two years (Kane had done that only twice previously, Son had never done it) and that's unlikely to continue, especially as they get older. With the CL, Spurs are now also in a situation where they're going to want to play Kane and Son every European match if they're available, which wasn't the case the last couple years.

IMO, a high quality forward who can play both CF and on the wings and rotate with Kane/Son is a pretty big need. And Bergwijn hasn't done anything over 2.5 years to show that he is that guy.
I agree he could do well in that role and Spurs could use him, but he wants to play every minutand it’s too much money for Spurs.

He’s all about Brazil. He wants to keep his starting spot in that XI. So he needs to play every game for his club.

Cant square this imo.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
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I agree he could do well in that role and Spurs could use him, but he wants to play every minutand it’s too much money for Spurs.
Yeah, the money and the expected minutes don't make a lot of sense from the Spurs perspective. He's a quality player and I would like him, but the cost is prohibitive.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I don't disagree with anything you wrote, except the last part about it being a high need. Spurs have a flawed roster and they don't have the resources to pay that kind of price for Richarlison while also filling the more pressing needs (specifically at wingback and midfield) that the team absolutely needs to fill if they want to win anything next season. Richarlison smashing the Spurs transfer record by 20 million pounds just doesn't make much sense. Getting Richarlison would be nice in the way it was nice for City to pick up Grealish last season, but Spurs aren't at the same level financially to invest like that.

Bergwijn's issue is that he hasn't been able to get into the rotation under Conte. When he has played Statsbomb likes him; and he's been a good player at the international level.
The price being discussed for Richarlison is definitely crazy and I can't imagine Spurs paying it.

Ultimately, however, I do think Spurs need to add some quality depth in attack, whether that is Richarlison at a more realistic price or somebody else. The combination of Kane/Son enjoying extremely good health for a couple years plus being in second-order European competitions (in which Kane/Son haven't really logged many minutes) has allowed Spurs to operate on a different kind of front three model than other top PL sides, but its unlikely to be a sustainable one.

This season is going to be insane. After September 1st PL clubs in Europe are essentially playing twice a week every single week until the World Cup in mid-November, then everybody goes to the World Cup and plays twice a week, then we come back and go right into the festive season fixtures, then the spring is also even more packed than normal. Players at the top clubs who are internationals and also in European competitions are going to be destroyed physically and the biggest stress will be on the CL sides because they can't rotate as easily in Europe without risk. Meanwhile, players at the mid-to-lower table clubs are going to be much more rested, many of them will get a month long holiday in the middle of the season, and their managers will be able to sub half the outfield players every game so we're going to see matches where its just fresh legs for 90 minutes. I don't think a model where you count on any player - even Kane or Son - to keep starting twice a week for weeks on end works in that context. And I don't see a lot of evidence that Conte truly trusts either Moura or Bergwijn to start ahead of Kane or Son in an important match.
 
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DJnVa

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Europe are essentially playing twice a week every single week until the World Cup in mid-November, then everybody goes to the World Cup and plays twice a week, then we come back and go right into the festive season fixtures, then the spring is also even more packed than normal.
Cool story on the scheduling: Pairing teams, algorithms, and long Tuesday away trips: How the Premier League and EFL work out fixtures - The Athletic

An added, unique, complication for 2022-23, of course, is having a World Cup played slap-bang in the middle of the season. An immovable, non-negotiable object in Qatar that cannot be shifted.

For the Premier League, that means a seven-week break has to be accommodated. Games played on the weekend of November 12-13 will be the last in the top flight until Boxing Day, with the season also beginning at an earlier date on the August 6-7 weekend and ending on Sunday, May 28.

That means the next Premier League season will span 295 days, as opposed to the 282 the last one took. It will consist of 34 weekend match days, three in midweek and one on a bank holiday.
 
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Kliq

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This is more interesting. I'm not sure what Everton's aspirations are. Winks and Moura are useful players that can provide a baseline of competence to help avoid sliding into a relegation spot; but if Everton are convinced that last season was a fluke and that they can compete for a European slot with a few moves and better luck, I doubt they would want Winks + Moura and some money for Richarlison. Richarlison is hard to replace, which is why he is priced at the level he is at.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Thanks that is an interesting read.

My general sense is that this season will have a lot of unpredictability. We've never seen a situation where one group of players will have unprecedented physical demands placed on them due to Europe/World Cup commitments and meanwhile another group of (non-international, non-European) players will not only play less during the league season but also get a huge seven week period in the middle of that season to rest, train, and strengthen their bodies. And its really hard to say how the five subs rule might (or might not) change the intensity of the game and some of the tactical thinking. We could see clubs really trying to press for 90 minutes by changing everybody except their back four and a defensive midfielder, we could see managers regularly throw on 3-4 new players at 60 minutes to completely change shape and tactics by surprise, etc.
 

67YAZ

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That’s an outrageous deal. Wow.

Edit: I had not heard of the sexual assault case, which is deeply concerning and certainly impacted his market.