The AFC Playoff Picture (formerly Ranking the AFC)
- Thread starter tims4wins
- Start date
Houston should be above Cleveland, and I would personally move Cincy up one spot as well as Baltimore, but yeah
I'd switch Miami and Pittsburgh. Other than that, I'd rank the AFC the same way.RedOctober3829 said:
If the playoffs started today:
#1 (NE) and #2 (DEN): Bye
#6 (PIT) @ #3 (CIN)
#5 (KC) @ #4 (IND)
Note that 5 of the 6 AFC 2013 playoff teams would make it again, with the Pats and Broncos again occupying the 1 and 2 seeds and the Colts and Bengals again the 3 and 4 seeds hosting the Wild Card games (with an IND/KC rematch).
Obviously things will likely change (I think PIT overtakes CIN), but that's remarkable consistency compared to the upheaval in the NFC, where the Cardinals and Lions (!!) currently are in position for 1st round byes.
#1 (NE) and #2 (DEN): Bye
#6 (PIT) @ #3 (CIN)
#5 (KC) @ #4 (IND)
Note that 5 of the 6 AFC 2013 playoff teams would make it again, with the Pats and Broncos again occupying the 1 and 2 seeds and the Colts and Bengals again the 3 and 4 seeds hosting the Wild Card games (with an IND/KC rematch).
Obviously things will likely change (I think PIT overtakes CIN), but that's remarkable consistency compared to the upheaval in the NFC, where the Cardinals and Lions (!!) currently are in position for 1st round byes.
TomRicardo said:
It would make sense. Not sure if much would change, but if I ever get around to it I'll edit the code.
1. Denver (Good win at home today. Getting healthier. Better than the Patriots on a field outside Gillette in temperatures above 40)
2. KC (Loss to Oakland but showed great fight on only three days' rest. Beat the Patriots only eight weeks ago)
3. Miami (Played Denver real tough on the road. Beat the Patriots on Opening Day - big game)
4. Baltimore (In their match-ups versus the Patriots, they have the most recent win in the playoffs and it was at Gillette and then they won the f'ing SB!!!)
5. New England (Until they can prove they can beat the top 3 on the road they must be slotted below them)
6. Cincy (Only 27 points away from beating the Patriots and occupying a higher slot than them)
7-16 The Rest
2. KC (Loss to Oakland but showed great fight on only three days' rest. Beat the Patriots only eight weeks ago)
3. Miami (Played Denver real tough on the road. Beat the Patriots on Opening Day - big game)
4. Baltimore (In their match-ups versus the Patriots, they have the most recent win in the playoffs and it was at Gillette and then they won the f'ing SB!!!)
5. New England (Until they can prove they can beat the top 3 on the road they must be slotted below them)
6. Cincy (Only 27 points away from beating the Patriots and occupying a higher slot than them)
7-16 The Rest
riboflav said:
It wasn't funny the first 10 times and it's not funny now.
At least you're consistent.
Thirded. Just stop dude, with all your content less snarky schtick, here and in other threads.epraz said:
Jesus, let the guy have a little fun. The Patriots have made this thread pretty boring. Even Stitch has them ranked #1 now.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
When I saw that you'd replied to the thread, I was hoping that it was to "rank" the various responses you got asking you to stop your rankings.
You know this hurt him. Tom Jackson on ESPN just now, "The AFC road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxboro."
So are we rooting for Denver or KC this weekend? Current situation:
NE: 9-2
Den: 8-3 (3-0 in division, games left at KC, vs Buf, at SD, at Cin, vs Oak)
KC: 7-4 (1-2 in division, games left vs Den, at Ari, vs Oak, at Pit, vs SD)
But NE owns the tiebreaker over Denver, but KC owns the tiebreaker over NE. So right now NE is up 1.5 (in effect) over Denver, but really just 1 (in effect) over KC. If we assume NE loses two more games the rest of the way and finishes at 12-4, Denver and/or KC would have to go undefeated to surpass the Patriots. By the way, the same holds true for Cincinnati and Indianapolis as well. A 12-4 finish almost guarantees New England the #1 seed in the AFC.
So do we care about the Denver-KC game? I don't know who I'd rather face, to be honest. Denver still scares me (less so, obviously, in Foxboro), but KC kicked the crap out of the Patriots earlier in the year and they have the kind of team that could give us fits.
But KC's schedule is pretty daunting the rest of the way. Suddenly Oakland and SD aren't easy games, and Den/Ari/Pit is a rough trifecta. Maybe root for KC here, knowing they're likely to lose one more down the stretch?
NE: 9-2
Den: 8-3 (3-0 in division, games left at KC, vs Buf, at SD, at Cin, vs Oak)
KC: 7-4 (1-2 in division, games left vs Den, at Ari, vs Oak, at Pit, vs SD)
But NE owns the tiebreaker over Denver, but KC owns the tiebreaker over NE. So right now NE is up 1.5 (in effect) over Denver, but really just 1 (in effect) over KC. If we assume NE loses two more games the rest of the way and finishes at 12-4, Denver and/or KC would have to go undefeated to surpass the Patriots. By the way, the same holds true for Cincinnati and Indianapolis as well. A 12-4 finish almost guarantees New England the #1 seed in the AFC.
So do we care about the Denver-KC game? I don't know who I'd rather face, to be honest. Denver still scares me (less so, obviously, in Foxboro), but KC kicked the crap out of the Patriots earlier in the year and they have the kind of team that could give us fits.
But KC's schedule is pretty daunting the rest of the way. Suddenly Oakland and SD aren't easy games, and Den/Ari/Pit is a rough trifecta. Maybe root for KC here, knowing they're likely to lose one more down the stretch?
I'm rooting for KC for three reasons:
1. I hate Peyton Manning (and KC and Denver are both essentially behind the Patriots by the same amount)
2. KC is more likely to lose one more game, if needed
3. I'd rather the Patriots face KC in a "revenge" game for the Patriots than face Denver in a "revenge" game for Denver
1. I hate Peyton Manning (and KC and Denver are both essentially behind the Patriots by the same amount)
2. KC is more likely to lose one more game, if needed
3. I'd rather the Patriots face KC in a "revenge" game for the Patriots than face Denver in a "revenge" game for Denver
I'm rooting for KC just because I think Denver is still more likely to get the 1-seed if they win this game than KC is.
Rooting for KC.
When in 1st, root for the 2nd place team to lose.
Creates more separation
Plus I enjoy when Manning loses
When in 1st, root for the 2nd place team to lose.
Creates more separation
Plus I enjoy when Manning loses
I'll root for KC, because I can't imagine doing otherwise, but I think a DEN win is slightly better for the Pats, assuming you believe (as I do) that it's basically a wash in terms of the Pats' prospects of capturing the #1 seed.
The #2 seed is less important to the Pats than the #5 seed. It's also less likely to be decided by this game) -- Indy is still very much in the picture. DEN is much more likely than KC to win a road playoff game, and DEN will be a more formidable opponent in the divisional round than the AFCN champ.
The #2 seed is less important to the Pats than the #5 seed. It's also less likely to be decided by this game) -- Indy is still very much in the picture. DEN is much more likely than KC to win a road playoff game, and DEN will be a more formidable opponent in the divisional round than the AFCN champ.
I kind of have a similar feeling as last week. If the Pats win at 4:30 then they might be better off with a Denver win, even if it would be hard to root for that.
At the end of the day it really doesn't matter who we root for, of course.
At the end of the day it really doesn't matter who we root for, of course.
I'm far more worried about Peyton and Denver than I am about KC and Andy Reid come playoff time.
Go Chiefs.
Go Chiefs.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
yeah, this isnt as close a call as the DEN - MIA game. There's no good argument for rooting for Denver this time.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
I think the probabalistic combination of events that would result in the scenario you describe (DEN as 5-seed beating Baltiless and coming to NE in the Divisional) is far less likely than the combination of probabilities that result in Denver taking the #1 seed from the Pats and hosting us in the Div or AFCCG.maufman said:
If GB beats us and DEN beats KC, we will have the same record as DEN. They'll just need to do 1 better than us down the stretch to take that #1 seed.
MentalDisabldLst said:
Same is true of KC though. If GB beats us and KC beats Den, we'll be one game up on them, but they always have the H-to-H tiebreaker, so they just need to do 1 better than us down the stretch to take that #1 seed (via tiebreaker).
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=lQtbzkT4iQE[/youtube]Kliq said:
Denver has @ Cincy and @ SD left after this week; I don't think either are gimmes.
I couldn't figure a reasonable scenario where they miss the playoffs entirely, but until that is out of the question I will continue to root against them. They're also unlikely to not win the division so far as I can figure with the playoff machine. I think they would have to lose Sunday, lose the above two games, and get the AFC North to line up right in order to miss entirely.
But I'm not too worried about any other team so long as the Pats get home field, barring any given Sunday stuff. KC in arrowhead again could be tough but that seems really unlikely even if they win Sunday. So go KC.
I couldn't figure a reasonable scenario where they miss the playoffs entirely, but until that is out of the question I will continue to root against them. They're also unlikely to not win the division so far as I can figure with the playoff machine. I think they would have to lose Sunday, lose the above two games, and get the AFC North to line up right in order to miss entirely.
But I'm not too worried about any other team so long as the Pats get home field, barring any given Sunday stuff. KC in arrowhead again could be tough but that seems really unlikely even if they win Sunday. So go KC.
If the Pats continue to play at the level they've been playing over the last few weeks, what other teams do is inconsequential. Ergo, root for Manning face.
The loss to Oakland is a killer for KC. It keeps Denver in first within the division even if the Broncos lose today. Rooting big time for the Chiefs.
Harry Hooper said:
TJ was thinking "The AFC road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxboro....where the team still hates its coach"
Seels said:
A KC win means they split the H2H with Denver. KC has an additional loss in the AFC West due to the loss at the Raiders. Denver will be in 1st in the AFC West at the end of today.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
Something to inform our inter-conference rankings (since we only have conference-specific threads):
AFC East vs NFC North: 7-7
AFC North vs NFC South: 11-2-1
AFC South vs NFC East: 4-11
AFC West vs NFC West: 7-8
(Remaining games: MIA vs MIN, BUF vs GB, PIT @ ATL, CLE @ CAR, IND @ DAL, SD @ SF)
AFC East vs NFC North: 7-7
AFC North vs NFC South: 11-2-1
AFC South vs NFC East: 4-11
AFC West vs NFC West: 7-8
(Remaining games: MIA vs MIN, BUF vs GB, PIT @ ATL, CLE @ CAR, IND @ DAL, SD @ SF)
If playoffs started today the AFC North would send three teams, with Cincy (9-4-1) winning the division and seeding as #4, with Pittsburgh (9-5) and Baltimore (9-5) as the #5 and #6. Pittsburgh has the division and conference tie-breaker with Baltimore. Indy (10-4) has the inside track on the #3 seed, with remaining games @Dallas and @Tennessee.
Remaining schedules:
Cincinnati (9-4-1): DENVER, @Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh (9-5): KANSAS CITY, CINCINNATI
Baltimore (9-5): @Houston, CLEVELAND
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh control their own destiny for the division, but Baltimore seems to have the easiest schedule remaining.
Three teams on the outside looking in, and I believe only KC controls their own destiny: they win-out, they leap over Pittsburgh. SD and Buffalo would need help.
Kansas City (8-6): @Pittsburgh, SAN DIEGO
San Diego (8-6): @San Francisco, @Kansas City
Buffalo (8-6): @Oakland, @New England
As others have noted, the one team of these six that I want no part of is Baltimore, and it is not hard at all to envision them as the #4 seed visiting Foxboro on the second weekend in January.
Remaining schedules:
Cincinnati (9-4-1): DENVER, @Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh (9-5): KANSAS CITY, CINCINNATI
Baltimore (9-5): @Houston, CLEVELAND
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh control their own destiny for the division, but Baltimore seems to have the easiest schedule remaining.
Three teams on the outside looking in, and I believe only KC controls their own destiny: they win-out, they leap over Pittsburgh. SD and Buffalo would need help.
Kansas City (8-6): @Pittsburgh, SAN DIEGO
San Diego (8-6): @San Francisco, @Kansas City
Buffalo (8-6): @Oakland, @New England
As others have noted, the one team of these six that I want no part of is Baltimore, and it is not hard at all to envision them as the #4 seed visiting Foxboro on the second weekend in January.
I played with the Playoff Machine and here is what I came up with. I picked who I thought would win each game and not who I want to win each game.
#1 New England 13-3
#2 Denver 13-3
#6 Cincinnati 10-5-1 at #3 Pittsburgh 11-5
#5 Baltimore 11-5 at #4 Indianapolis 11-5
I'm anticipating that any team the Patriots get in the Divisional Round will be a tough out.
#1 New England 13-3
#2 Denver 13-3
#6 Cincinnati 10-5-1 at #3 Pittsburgh 11-5
#5 Baltimore 11-5 at #4 Indianapolis 11-5
I'm anticipating that any team the Patriots get in the Divisional Round will be a tough out.
Yeah it is looking highly likely that the 4-5 game will be an AFC North clash.
The Indy vs. the 6 seed game may be interesting though, especially if it is the Steelers. They throttled Indy earlier this year. Wouldn't particularly mind seeing the Steelers in round two.
The Indy vs. the 6 seed game may be interesting though, especially if it is the Steelers. They throttled Indy earlier this year. Wouldn't particularly mind seeing the Steelers in round two.
Stitch01 said:
Given my druthers I'd take Indy in the divisional round out of all the likely opponents. Already beat them in their own house, BB has already seen them once this year and they're a dome team coming to the Blade.