The AFC Playoff Picture (formerly Ranking the AFC)

[williams_482]

Here are the rankings from Pro Football Reference's Simple Rating System, as a totally neutral and pleasantly transparent comparison point and also because I like numbers and may as well be honest about it. 
 
1. DEN, +10.6
2. NE, +9.6 
3. IND, +8.8 
4. KC, +8.8 
5. MIA, +8.4
6. BAL, +5.6
7. SD, +4.0
8. BUF, +2.9
9. HOU +1.6
10. PIT, +1.0
11. CIN, -0.2
12. CLE, -2.8
13. TEN, -7.6
14. OAK, -7.6
15. NYJ, -7.9
16. JAX, -10.2
 
At a glance Cincinnati seems like the biggest surprise on that list, but SRS sees them as a team which has played a below average schedule and only outscored their opponents by 7 points. I also expected a little more from Pittsburgh and Cleveland. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
 
On the other hand, I could not agree with you more that a fuckton is at stake on who has home field in an AFC Championship game between the Pats and Broncos, assuming those teams play in that game.
 
Every week now seems to matter quite a bit.

These next 5 games will tell you who will host the AFC title game. Patriots have @Indy, Detroit, @GB, @SD, and Miami.  If they finish that stretch still tied with Denver, the Pats will get the #1 seed.  It's a very tall task given Denver's schedule(@Oakland, @STL, vs. Miami, @KC, Buffalo).

 

[Stitch01]

Here are the rankings from Pro Football Reference's Simple Rating System, as a totally neutral and pleasantly transparent comparison point and also because I like numbers and may as well be honest about it. 
 
1. DEN, +10.6
2. NE, +9.6 
3. IND, +8.8 
4. KC, +8.8 
5. MIA, +8.4
6. BAL, +5.6
7. SD, +4.0
8. BUF, +2.9
9. HOU +1.6
10. PIT, +1.0
11. CIN, -0.2
12. CLE, -2.8
13. TEN, -7.6
14. OAK, -7.6
15. NYJ, -7.9
16. JAX, -10.2
 
At a glance Cincinnati seems like the biggest surprise on that list, but SRS sees them as a team which has played a below average schedule and only outscored their opponents by 7 points. I also expected a little more from Pittsburgh and Cleveland. 

I probably do have the Bengals too high given where all the quant metrics have them, and I dont have any conviction beyond the top three, but man that seems really down on the Bengals.  1.8 points worse than Houston?  Looking like a pick em at home vs. Buffalo?
 
Surprised they have Jax as the worst team by so much and Tennessee tiered with Oakland and the Jets.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

I probably do have the Bengals too high given where all the quant metrics have them, and I dont have any conviction beyond the top three, but man that seems really down on the Bengals.  1.8 points worse than Houston?  Looking like a pick em at home vs. Buffalo?
 
Surprised they have Jax as the worst team by so much and Tennessee tiered with Oakland and the Jets.

 
I'd venture to say they've been affected by injuries more than the average team. Green has basically missed four games, Burfict three (and has missed chunks of almost every one he's played) and Atkins was still working his way back for the majority of the season. Eifert has also been out the whole season and will be back in two weeks. Despite that, they still swept the Ravens (and dominated them in Baltimore - the score was a lot closer than the game) and their only losses were both on the road to good teams, albeit they were blowouts. The odds are they're going to be better going forward than they've been so far.

 

[NYCSox]

Don't know why people are taking runs at others here.
 
Who had the Cardinals at 7 and 1?  Steeler fans several weeks ago were writing off the Steelers.  Almost everyone liked San Diego.
 
The League is very fluid and likely to remain that way for the next few weeks.  And even then, there is always the injury curse.

 
Guilty as charged. The last 10 quarters (plus 3 minutes) have been like night and day. Finally getting a pass rush going has made the defense competent.

 

[dcmissle]

 
Guilty as charged. The last 10 quarters (plus 3 minutes) have been like night and day. Finally getting a pass rush going has made the defense competent.

 
 
That ranking that williams posted seems generally reasonable, except that it underanks the Steelers in my estimation.  They have had two seasons just like the Pats. 12 TD passes in two weeks is ridiculous.  My main worry would be the health, depth and age of the defense.

 

[DJnVa]

No, I don't think the Pats beat the Broncos 100% of the time on a neutral field nor do I think that if the teams played again tomorrow at Foxboro that we should expect the Pats to win by 22 points.  Does that answer the question?  

 

Only if you think the question was "Would the Patriots win 100% of the time on a neutral field?"
 
 
If they played next weekend on a neutral field, what do you think the line would be?

 

[Stitch01]

Its literally in the line below what you quoted.
 
I don't understand what his question is.  He seems to think Im saying homefield is worth like 4 TDs which Im clearly not doing unless you think yesterdays game is entirely predictive of what would happen if the two teams played again.

 

[DJnVa]

Its literally in the line below what you quoted.

 
Oh, so you want me to do EXTRA work????? I read that, but came back to respond and glossed right over it.

 

[Stitch01]

No, I bet lots on the Pats yesterday I thought the line was favorable. (too bad that's not all I bet, decided to do dumb ten point teasers with SF/Cin/Seattle.  Whoops). 
 
As I said upthread, I thought -4 on a neutral field was about right before yesterday and, right or wrong, I personally thought homefield was going to be worth more than the standard 2.5-3 yesterday so I moved it maybe 2-2.5 (and I could be convinced that's too big of a move)
 
There's also the not very scientific I always hammer the Pats as an underdog because they nearly always cover the once a season or so it happens.

 

[coremiller]

I probably do have the Bengals too high given where all the quant metrics have them, and I dont have any conviction beyond the top three, but man that seems really down on the Bengals.  1.8 points worse than Houston?  Looking like a pick em at home vs. Buffalo?
 
Surprised they have Jax as the worst team by so much and Tennessee tiered with Oakland and the Jets.

 
Part of the reason Cincy is tough to get a read on is high variance.  They are 30th in DVOA variance (so 3rd most), behind only Tampa and the Giants; they have wins by 14, 26, and 10 but losses by 26 and 27.  Teams with extreme swings in performance level are much harder to judge than teams that are consistent.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

If the pats had been in Denver's spot, and then they went into Denver and got absolutely rolled, and some of us still insisted that New England was the top team in the conference.... We'd all be guilty of massive homerism. Last night wasn't a squeaker, it was a woodshedding. The Pats have to be #1 after that, with the caveat that in the nfl, the situation is always fluid and could change in a week.

 

[bakahump]

Denver drops just because the Pats took out 2 important pieces in Welker and Irving.  I had been pretty vocal earlier in the year that the Denver Defense was suspect due to the LB situation (of course I have been quiet since then...) anyway...losing Irving along with the Trevathon injury is a serious hit.  As serious as Mayo.  Who knows how long Welker is gone.  
 
Was SO Glad the Pats go into the bye looking to rest and not heal.
 
Pats
Denver
 
 
Indy
Pitts
 
Balt
Cinnci
KC
Miami
 
Cleveland
SD
Buff
 
Hou
 
Tenn
Jack
 
Oak
NYJ

 

[Toe Nash]

Welker was probable to return to the game, he just didn't. I don't think he'll be out that long (nor is he really that important a piece anymore, anyway). 

 

[Stitch01]

Betting markets via inpredictable.  Ranked within AFC, overall rank in parenthesis.  Number is points in back of first ranked team on a neutral field
 
1 (1) Denver   ---
2 (2) NE         2.3
3 (4) Indy       4.2
4 (7) KC         5.2
5 (10) Miami   5.6
6  (11) Balt     6.2
7  (15) Pitt      7.2
8  (16) SD      7.7
9   (17) Buf     8.1
10  (18) Cin    8.2
11  (19) Hou   9.1
12  (23) Cle    11.3
13  (28) NYJ   13
14   (29) Tenn 14.3
15  (30)  Oak   14.3
16 (32)  Jac     18

 

[wilked]

That implies Patriots will be a 1 point dog at Indy in two weeks, yes?

 

[Stitch01]

Something along those lines if Indy doesn't change in the two games they play.  I think inpredictable uses 2.5 points for homefield, so it might imply even. 
 
Pats 14-0 at home, 5-7 on the road since the start of the '13 season so should be a big test.

 

[Ed Hillel]

If the Pats go out and play at the top of their game, nobody in this league is beating them. Denver is the only team in their league from a talent perspective and I honestly think the Patriots D is significantly better suited to stop Manning than Denver's is to Brady. This is the team everyone expected coming into the season, and they've finally hit their stride. Obviously doesn't guarantee a Superbowl, and plenty of time left for injuries (I know we are all holding our breath on one player, in particular), but they are the best overall. Gronk changes everything with the offense and this D is physical, aggressive, and talented. If they can contain the run like they did last night, forget it. Good luck beating this team with 50 passing attempts.

 

[pdaj]

If the Pats go out and play at the top of their game, nobody in this league is beating them. Denver is the only team in their league from a talent perspective and I honestly think the Patriots D is significantly better suited to stop Manning than Denver's is to Brady. This is the team everyone expected coming into the season, and they've finally hit their stride. Obviously doesn't guarantee a Superbowl, and plenty of time left for injuries (I know we are all holding our breath on one player, in particular), but they are the best overall. Gronk changes everything with the offense and this D is physical, aggressive, and talented. If they can contain the run like they did last night, forget it. Good luck beating this team with 50 passing attempts.

 
 
I think the Pats are a really bad defensive matchup for Denver. The Broncos have a pass 1st (and 2nd) offense that finds success in the running game due to their overwhelming air attack. Back when Ball was starting, he and every other Denver RB struggled finding yards with Peyton taking the snap under center. It wasn't until Hillman, who's truly a 3rd-down back, replaced the injured Ball, that Denver began having any success in the running game -- and that's because, under shotgun, teams are spread out and geared up to stop Manning's heavy passing onslaught.
 
With Browner now in the fold, New England has the unique ability to matchup with Denver's receivers -- and play physical. Their ability to keep the Denver passing game in check made the Denver running game completely non-existant. For the first time since Seattle (another defense that matches us well), Peyton looked human.
 
Maybe the Pats have improved their ability to stop the run, but I don't think game is evidence of that. 

 

[Ed Hillel]

 
 
I think the Pats are a really bad defensive matchup for Denver. The Broncos have a pass 1st (and 2nd) offense that finds success in the running game due to their overwhelming air attack. Back when Ball was starting, he and every other Denver RB struggled finding yards with Peyton taking the snap under center. It wasn't until Hillman, who's truly a 3rd-down back, replaced the injured Ball, that Denver began having any success in the running game -- and that's because, under shotgun, teams are spread out and geared up to stop Manning's heavy passing onslaught.
 
With Browner now in the fold, New England has the unique ability to matchup with Denver's receivers -- and play physical. Their ability to keep the Denver passing game in check made the Denver running game completely non-existant. For the first time since Seattle (another defense that matches us well), Peyton looked human.
 
Maybe the Pats have improved their ability to stop the run, but I don't think game is evidence of that. 

 
Yeah, I agree regarding the run defense and last night (though consider they were stuffing Denver with 6 in the box). However, I think the Pats do have the tools equipped to be a pretty good team against the run. Wilfork still looks good when he's getting some rest, Hightower is a plus, Ayers is solid against the run, and every single one of their 7-8 active DBs are really good tacklers, to boot. Nink is a wild card on the edge with his inconcistency, and Jones certainly has his warts containing, but the Pats will also be getting Siliga back, who is going to be a significant upgrade over whoever they trot out there now. By the end of the year, I think it's going to be a solid unit. The big weakness to me is going to remain the lack of a pass rush. Jones will help, but they still lack the consistent pressure. The A gap blitzes from Hightower and Collins could help, as well.

 

[Dgilpin]

1. Pats
2. Broncos
3. Steelers
4. Colts
5. Chiefs
6. Dolphins
7. Bengals
8. Ravens
9. Chargers
10. Bills
11. Texans
12. Browns
13. Titans
14. Jags
15. Jets
16. Raiders

 

[jsinger121]

1. NE - Kicked Denver's ass. Healthy Gronk and upgrade with Revis and Browner show can probably beat Denver anywhere especially in Denver. 
2. Denver - Defense exposed and to me this seems to be a front running defense
3. Pittsburgh - Clicking on offense and D is starting to come around
4. Indy - We will see if the Pittsburgh game was an aberration 
5. Cincy - Looks to have righted the ship 
6. KC - consistent under Reid
 
7. Miami
8. Buffalo
9. Baltimiore
10. San Diego
11. Cleveland
12. Houston
13. Tenn
14. Jax
15. NYJ
16. Oakland

Can't believe I thought Cincy righted the ship or put in the top 5. They are awful. Can't see them winning many down the stretch with this schedule.

At New Orleans
At Houston
At Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh
At Cleveland
Denver
At Pittsburgh

 

[mt8thsw9th]

https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/526568979733966849
 
DEN
 
 
 
 
 
 
NE
 

 
Gotta put the Patriots a few spots closer after Denver's loss today, I think. For the rest of the AFC it'll be tough to overcome that 7 carriage return lead, though.

 

[Stitch01]

I hate you right now, was that right as Brady was throwing?

 

[Stitch01]

Ok love you again

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Gobble dick, Indy.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

I hate you right now, was that right as Brady was throwing?

 
I think the Patriots were a couple carriage returns behind Indy, so this has to put them at least one closer. 

 

[pdaj]

I think the only stops by the Colts' defense tonight were the two Brady brain farts. I liked NE to win this game, but I'm surprised how much Indy's D-line got dominated. They got absolutely punched in the face, making Jonas Gray look like Marshon Lynch. If you can't run the ball (even a little) or stop the run, you're not getting past the 1st round of the playoffs. 

 

[Stitch01]

I think the Patriots were a couple carriage returns behind Indy, so this has to put them at least one closer.

Finally some clarity, pretty clearly

NE

DEN

INDY
KC

then probably Miami/Balt/Cinn/Pitt

 

[jsinger121]

Finally some clarity, pretty clearly
NE
DEN
INDY
KC
then probably Miami/Balt/Cinn/Pitt

I wouldnt even put Indy in the top 4. They stink.

 

[riboflav]

Updated Rankings:
 
1. Denver - Manning threw for almost 400 yards in a loss. Wow!
 
 
 
 
 
2. Indy - Luck isn't the best QB in history yet. But, will be soon.
3. KC - Killed the Patriots in week 4 so that matters more than anything.
 
 
 
 
4. Miami - Beat NE
 
 
 
5. Patriots
 
The rest don't matter yet until they beat the Pats then they jump ahead.

 

[cronuts]

New England
 
Everybody else. 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Updated Rankings:
 
1. Denver - Manning threw for almost 400 yards in a loss. Wow!
 
 
 
 
 
2. Indy - Luck isn't the best QB in history yet. But, will be soon.
3. KC - Killed the Patriots in week 4 so that matters more than anything.
 
 
 
 
4. Miami - Beat NE
 
 
 
5. Patriots

 
Can't argue with facts.

 

[Stitch01]

I wouldnt even put Indy in the top 4. They stink.

Who is clearly better? KC maybe, but everyone else is very flawed

 

[jsinger121]

Who is clearly better? KC maybe, but everyone else is very flawed

Pittsburgh destroyed Indy and Baltimore is tougher than them as well. I think Miami may be better than them as well. They are soft as shit. Brady is the only reason they didn't hold them to under 20 points tonight,

 

[epraz]

Updated Rankings:
 
1. Denver - Manning threw for almost 400 yards in a loss. Wow!
 
 
 
 
 
2. Indy - Luck isn't the best QB in history yet. But, will be soon.
3. KC - Killed the Patriots in week 4 so that matters more than anything.
 
 
 
 
4. Miami - Beat NE
 
 
 
5. Patriots
 
The rest don't matter yet until they beat the Pats then they jump ahead.

 
Your persistent anger about people underrating the Patriots is impressive.  It reminds me of this:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGF4l3hcgBg

 

[riboflav]

 
Your persistent anger about people underrating the Patriots is impressive.  It reminds me of this:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGF4l3hcgBg

 
Dude, here's a clue for you. Focus on the reasoning.

 

[Dogman]

 
Your persistent anger about people underrating the Patriots is impressive.  It reminds me of this:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGF4l3hcgBg

hlord:  :bill-throwing:
 
It's like you  need your hand held.

 

[RedOctober3829]

The good thing is they play each other in a couple weeks and I can be proven right soon.

Proven right. Indy is not ready for prime time.

 

[pdaj]

Pats
Chiefs
Broncos -- Must get healthy.
***
Steelers
Dolphins/Ravens -- To be decided Week 14.
*** 
Colts --- Can any of the below listed teams run it down their throat like the Pats did tonight? Browns?
Bengals 
Browns -- Despite today's loss, prefer Hoyer over Mallett, plus the Gordon effect.
***
Bills -- Injuries mounting. Dangerous at full strength. 
Chargers  -- Schedule is brutal. Rams, Ravens, Pats, Broncos, 49ers, Chiefs.
Texans -- Favorable schedule down stretch.
***
Jets -- Could play spoiler.
Titans 
Jags 
***
Raiders

 

[m0ckduck]

I think the only stops by the Colts' defense tonight were the two Brady brain farts. I liked NE to win this game, but I'm surprised how much Indy's D-line got dominated. They got absolutely punched in the face, making Jonas Gray look like Marshon Lynch. If you can't run the ball (even a little) or stop the run, you're not getting past the 1st round of the playoffs. 

 
On Indy's opening drives, it was sad to see how much the fans have been conditioned to look for PI and defensive holding calls. Meanwhile, in the three meetings between these teams during the Luck era, the Colts have given up 593 rushing yards and 144 points. Luck may be a generational talent, but this franchise isn't making it back to the Superbowl until they shed some of their Dome-finesse-team mentality. It didn't happen for Manning either until he finally had a defense that could push people around a bit.
 

Pats
Chiefs
Broncos -- Must get healthy.
***
Steelers
Dolphins/Ravens -- To be decided Week 14.
*** 
Colts --- Can any of the below listed teams run it down their throat like the Pats did tonight? Browns?
Bengals 
Browns -- Despite today's loss, prefer Hoyer over Mallett, plus the Gordon effect.
***
Bills -- Injuries mounting. Dangerous at full strength. 
Chargers  -- Schedule is brutal. Rams, Ravens, Pats, Broncos, 49ers, Chiefs.
Texans -- Favorable schedule down stretch.
***
Jets -- Could play spoiler.
Titans 
Jags 
***
Raiders

 
I would put Dolphins (definitely) and Ravens (probably) over the Steelers, who have been completely trick-or-treat and lost two games to abjectly bad teams. Otherwise, I think this is exactly right.

 

[mauf]

Proven right. Indy is not ready for prime time.

Yup. I was actually more impressed by this win than the Denver win.

1. New England
2. Denver
3. Indianapolis
4. Kansas City
5. Cincinnati
6. Pittsburgh
7. Miami
8. Baltimore
9. San Diego
10. Houston
11. Cleveland
12. Buffalo
13. NY Jets
14. Tennessee
15. Oakland
16. Jacksonville

 

[ivanvamp]

The past six games for the Patriots have been sick.  
 
43-17 win over previously unbeaten Cincinnati, the leader of the AFC North.  
37-22 win at Buffalo, who at the time was tied with the Patriots for first place in the AFC East.
27-25 win over the Jets on a short week.
51-23 win over Chicago in a total demolition.
43-21 win over Denver, the leader of the AFC West.
42-20 win at Indianapolis, the leader of the AFC South.
 
243 points scored (40.5 per game)
128 points allowed (21.3 per game) - against some of the better offenses in football (Indy, Den, Chi)
 
Against the three other AFC division leaders (Cincy, Denver, Indy), they've gone 3-0, outscoring them 128-58, a +70 point differential.
 
I mean, holy freaking crow.  This team is just DESTROYING opponents now.  Quality opponents.  

 

[jsinger121]

New England
Denver
Kansas City
Pittsburgh
Miami
Indy
Cincinnati
Baltimore
San Diego
Cleveland
Buffalo
Houston
 
And then everyone else

 

[Dgilpin]

1. Pats
2. Denver
3. Chiefs
4. Steelers
5. Dolphins
6. Ravens
7. Colts
8. Chargers
9. Bengals
10. Texans
11. Bills
12. Browns
13. Titans
14. Jets
15. Jags
16. Raiders

 

[dbn]

The results of my who-beat-whom iterative rankings (see some explanation in this post). N.B.: this is not consistent with how I would order the AFC. It's just a non-arbitrary measurement that may or may not be helpful in judging teams. AFC teams in bold.
 
 
 
 1 ARI   9- 1___159.50_____ 12 21 5 27 30 6 10 15 9 -- 2
 2 DEN   7- 3___112.00_____ 14 4 1 25 5 12 30 -- 11 3 15
 3  NE   8- 2___111.50_____ 23 30 16 13 25 17 2 14 -- 8 4
 4  KC   7- 3___108.50_____ 8 3 12 15 25 13 11 -- 29 2 5
 5  SF   6- 4___83.00_____ 10 6 4 15 24 21 -- 17 1 2 15
 6 PHI   7- 3___65.50_____ 31 14 27 15 21 20 26 -- 5 1 7
 7  GB   7- 3___64.50_____ 25 17 23 8 26 17 6 -- 11 9 24
 8 MIA   6- 4___60.00_____ 3 30 17 31 12 13 -- 13 4 7 9
 9 DET   7- 3___55.50_____ 21 7 25 23 24 28 8 -- 26 13 1
10 DAL   7- 3___48.00_____ 29 15 24 20 11 21 31 -- 5 27 1
11 SEA   6- 4___44.50_____ 7 2 27 26 30 21 -- 12 10 15 4
12  SD   6- 4___42.50_____ 11 13 31 25 30 30 -- 1 4 2 8
13 BUF   5- 5___37.00_____ 17 8 9 23 25 -- 12 20 3 4 8
14 IND   6- 4___33.00_____ 31 29 18 20 16 21 -- 2 6 19 3
15 STL   4- 6___32.00_____ 32 11 5 2 -- 23 10 6 5 4 1
16 CIN   7- 4___-7.50_____ 18 28 29 26 18 31 24 -- 3 14 22 26
17 CHI   4- 6___-11.50_____ 5 25 28 23 -- 13 7 26 8 3 7
18 BAL   6- 4___-23.00_____ 19 22 26 32 28 29 -- 16 14 16 19
19 PIT   7- 4___-25.50_____ 22 26 31 20 14 18 29 -- 18 32 22 25
20 HOU   5- 5___-26.50_____ 27 30 13 29 22 -- 21 10 14 19 6
21 NYG   3- 7___-32.00_____ 20 27 28 -- 9 1 6 10 14 11 5
22 CLE   6- 4___-39.50_____ 24 29 19 30 32 16 -- 19 18 31 20
23 MIN   4- 6___-41.50_____ 15 28 32 27 -- 3 24 7 9 13 17
24  NO   4- 6___-45.50_____ 23 32 7 26 -- 28 22 10 9 5 16
25 NYJ   2- 8___-49.50_____ 30 19 -- 7 17 9 12 2 3 13 4
26 CAR   4- 8___-71.00_____ 32 9 17 16 -- 19 18 16 7 11 24 6 28
27 WAS   3- 7___-85.00_____ 31 29 10 -- 20 6 21 11 1 23 32
28 ATL   4- 6___-86.00_____ 24 32 32 26 -- 16 23 21 17 18 9
29 TEN   2- 8___-114.50_____ 4 31 -- 10 16 14 22 27 20 18 19
30 OAK   0-10___-115.50_____ -- 25 20 3 8 12 1 22 11 2 12
31 JAC   1- 9___-130.50_____ 22 -- 6 27 14 12 19 29 8 16 10
32  TB   2- 8___-163.50_____ 19 27 -- 26 15 28 24 18 23 22 28
 
edit: it's actually not much different than how I'd rank them, as well as the "groupings".

 

[NYCSox]

1. Pats
2. Denver
3. Chiefs
4. Steelers
5. Dolphins
6. Ravens
7. Colts
8. Chargers
9. Bengals
10. Texans
11. Bills
12. Browns
13. Titans
14. Jets
15. Jags
16. Raiders

 
Even as a diehard Steelers fan, I'm not sure I buy the #4 ranking. The last two games have really been disheartening.
 
But I guess it's not like the teams ranked behind them are any better.
 
FYI - I think you have to put the Bengals ahead of Baltimore (H2H sweep is a a H2H sweep after all).

 

[TomRicardo]

 
The results of my who-beat-whom iterative rankings (see some explanation in this post). N.B.: this is not consistent with how I would order the AFC. It's just a non-arbitrary measurement that may or may not be helpful in judging teams. AFC teams in bold.
 
 
 
 1 ARI   9- 1___159.50_____ 12 21 5 27 30 6 10 15 9 -- 2
 2 DEN   7- 3___112.00_____ 14 4 1 25 5 12 30 -- 11 3 15
 3  NE   8- 2___111.50_____ 23 30 16 13 25 17 2 14 -- 8 4
 4  KC   7- 3___108.50_____ 8 3 12 15 25 13 11 -- 29 2 5
 5  SF   6- 4___83.00_____ 10 6 4 15 24 21 -- 17 1 2 15
 6 PHI   7- 3___65.50_____ 31 14 27 15 21 20 26 -- 5 1 7
 7  GB   7- 3___64.50_____ 25 17 23 8 26 17 6 -- 11 9 24
 8 MIA   6- 4___60.00_____ 3 30 17 31 12 13 -- 13 4 7 9
 9 DET   7- 3___55.50_____ 21 7 25 23 24 28 8 -- 26 13 1
10 DAL   7- 3___48.00_____ 29 15 24 20 11 21 31 -- 5 27 1
11 SEA   6- 4___44.50_____ 7 2 27 26 30 21 -- 12 10 15 4
12  SD   6- 4___42.50_____ 11 13 31 25 30 30 -- 1 4 2 8
13 BUF   5- 5___37.00_____ 17 8 9 23 25 -- 12 20 3 4 8
14 IND   6- 4___33.00_____ 31 29 18 20 16 21 -- 2 6 19 3
15 STL   4- 6___32.00_____ 32 11 5 2 -- 23 10 6 5 4 1
16 CIN   7- 4___-7.50_____ 18 28 29 26 18 31 24 -- 3 14 22 26
17 CHI   4- 6___-11.50_____ 5 25 28 23 -- 13 7 26 8 3 7
18 BAL   6- 4___-23.00_____ 19 22 26 32 28 29 -- 16 14 16 19
19 PIT   7- 4___-25.50_____ 22 26 31 20 14 18 29 -- 18 32 22 25
20 HOU   5- 5___-26.50_____ 27 30 13 29 22 -- 21 10 14 19 6
21 NYG   3- 7___-32.00_____ 20 27 28 -- 9 1 6 10 14 11 5
22 CLE   6- 4___-39.50_____ 24 29 19 30 32 16 -- 19 18 31 20
23 MIN   4- 6___-41.50_____ 15 28 32 27 -- 3 24 7 9 13 17
24  NO   4- 6___-45.50_____ 23 32 7 26 -- 28 22 10 9 5 16
25 NYJ   2- 8___-49.50_____ 30 19 -- 7 17 9 12 2 3 13 4
26 CAR   4- 8___-71.00_____ 32 9 17 16 -- 19 18 16 7 11 24 6 28
27 WAS   3- 7___-85.00_____ 31 29 10 -- 20 6 21 11 1 23 32
28 ATL   4- 6___-86.00_____ 24 32 32 26 -- 16 23 21 17 18 9
29 TEN   2- 8___-114.50_____ 4 31 -- 10 16 14 22 27 20 18 19
30 OAK   0-10___-115.50_____ -- 25 20 3 8 12 1 22 11 2 12
31 JAC   1- 9___-130.50_____ 22 -- 6 27 14 12 19 29 8 16 10
32  TB   2- 8___-163.50_____ 19 27 -- 26 15 28 24 18 23 22 28
 
edit: it's actually not much different than how I'd rank them, as well as the "groupings".
 

 
Wouldn't it make sense to exclude each team from the points?  aka Each win counts for 31-1 points as you are not in your ranking.

 

[RedOctober3829]

1. New England
2. Kansas City
3. Denver
4. Miami
5. Indy
6. Pittsburgh
7. Cincinnati
8. San Diego
9. Baltimore
10. Cleveland
11. Houston
12. Buffalo
13. Tennessee
14. NY Jets
15. Jacksonville
16. Oakland

 

[bakahump]

The results of my who-beat-whom iterative rankings (see some explanation in this post). N.B.: this is not consistent with how I would order the AFC. It's just a non-arbitrary measurement that may or may not be helpful in judging teams. AFC teams in bold.
 
 
 
 1 ARI   9- 1___159.50_____ 12 21 5 27 30 6 10 15 9 -- 2
 2 DEN   7- 3___112.00_____ 14 4 1 25 5 12 30 -- 11 3 15
 3  NE   8- 2___111.50_____ 23 30 16 13 25 17 2 14 -- 8 4
 4  KC   7- 3___108.50_____ 8 3 12 15 25 13 11 -- 29 2 5
 5  SF   6- 4___83.00_____ 10 6 4 15 24 21 -- 17 1 2 15
 6 PHI   7- 3___65.50_____ 31 14 27 15 21 20 26 -- 5 1 7
 7  GB   7- 3___64.50_____ 25 17 23 8 26 17 6 -- 11 9 24
 8 MIA   6- 4___60.00_____ 3 30 17 31 12 13 -- 13 4 7 9
 9 DET   7- 3___55.50_____ 21 7 25 23 24 28 8 -- 26 13 1
10 DAL   7- 3___48.00_____ 29 15 24 20 11 21 31 -- 5 27 1
11 SEA   6- 4___44.50_____ 7 2 27 26 30 21 -- 12 10 15 4
12  SD   6- 4___42.50_____ 11 13 31 25 30 30 -- 1 4 2 8
13 BUF   5- 5___37.00_____ 17 8 9 23 25 -- 12 20 3 4 8
14 IND   6- 4___33.00_____ 31 29 18 20 16 21 -- 2 6 19 3
15 STL   4- 6___32.00_____ 32 11 5 2 -- 23 10 6 5 4 1
16 CIN   7- 4___-7.50_____ 18 28 29 26 18 31 24 -- 3 14 22 26
17 CHI   4- 6___-11.50_____ 5 25 28 23 -- 13 7 26 8 3 7
18 BAL   6- 4___-23.00_____ 19 22 26 32 28 29 -- 16 14 16 19
19 PIT   7- 4___-25.50_____ 22 26 31 20 14 18 29 -- 18 32 22 25
20 HOU   5- 5___-26.50_____ 27 30 13 29 22 -- 21 10 14 19 6
21 NYG   3- 7___-32.00_____ 20 27 28 -- 9 1 6 10 14 11 5
22 CLE   6- 4___-39.50_____ 24 29 19 30 32 16 -- 19 18 31 20
23 MIN   4- 6___-41.50_____ 15 28 32 27 -- 3 24 7 9 13 17
24  NO   4- 6___-45.50_____ 23 32 7 26 -- 28 22 10 9 5 16
25 NYJ   2- 8___-49.50_____ 30 19 -- 7 17 9 12 2 3 13 4
26 CAR   4- 8___-71.00_____ 32 9 17 16 -- 19 18 16 7 11 24 6 28
27 WAS   3- 7___-85.00_____ 31 29 10 -- 20 6 21 11 1 23 32
28 ATL   4- 6___-86.00_____ 24 32 32 26 -- 16 23 21 17 18 9
29 TEN   2- 8___-114.50_____ 4 31 -- 10 16 14 22 27 20 18 19
30 OAK   0-10___-115.50_____ -- 25 20 3 8 12 1 22 11 2 12
31 JAC   1- 9___-130.50_____ 22 -- 6 27 14 12 19 29 8 16 10
32  TB   2- 8___-163.50_____ 19 27 -- 26 15 28 24 18 23 22 28
 
edit: it's actually not much different than how I'd rank them, as well as the "groupings".

But But The AFC East Sucks!