The #4 Pick
- Thread starter OCD SS
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I think there is a real chance one of the guys who seems to be Locked In to the Top three will drop. Happens far too often to eliminate that possibility
Anyone have an idea on the success rate of highly drafted HS position players vs college position players vs HS pitchers vs college pitchers?
Obviously HS players get more time in their youth with MLB training, but college players are more seasoned. Not sure how that balances. Also, is the amount of time for a HS player (vs a college player) to develop before they become risks of being swept up in a Rule V draft any sort of serious consideration?
Obviously HS players get more time in their youth with MLB training, but college players are more seasoned. Not sure how that balances. Also, is the amount of time for a HS player (vs a college player) to develop before they become risks of being swept up in a Rule V draft any sort of serious consideration?
If this were football or basketball maybe but practically no one outside of hardcore baseball fans knows any college players so I don‘t think a Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker would be rolling in endorsement money. I could see a situation in the future where the next Zion stays a year to avoid being drafted by the Magic or whomever with the comfort of a huge shoe deal.
Oh, sure. I’m not interested in setting up all the possibilities of the draft, just this particular scenario, since it hasnt been gamed out despite being both worst case for the Sox. I’m pretty sure Mayer goes really early and if either Lieter or Davis are there, the Sox will take them.
I'm sure it will happen, but how long can that go on though? The next season odds are another crappy team is picking at the top.
Locally these guys can make a ton. If you’ve ever been to an SEC or Big 12 town, you’d know these guys are treated like rock stars. Local businesses will jump at the chance to use these players.
If Leiter is not available then Jobe should be the pick, a ton of upside and the potential to be the best arm in the draft plus it will save money (over Rocker) so they can get another high upside guy later in the draft. I also really like Ty Madden, he seems like a safe bet to be a solid arm (big Texans who throw hard seem to work out well).
As good as Davis is, I’m always terrified of drafting a catcher that early. He probably is the best college bat in the draft though.
As good as Davis is, I’m always terrified of drafting a catcher that early. He probably is the best college bat in the draft though.
I choose Jobe for these very reasons. If he agrees to sign under slot before the draft I think is the way they go allowing them to go over slot at 40. I also like Madden as well, and would add Bednar as solid safe picks, but i doubt either would sign under slot. There is an outside chance Bednar could be available at 40, but a more likely prospect to be there would be Jaden Hill who would have gone top 5 if not for the TJ surgery. If Sox confident in a recovery, this is a guy they could use the saved money on at 40.
CBS Draft Top 50
Here’s a different source for a Top 50 list; it will be interesting to see if this points to guys the Sox might consider with pick 40.
Here’s a different source for a Top 50 list; it will be interesting to see if this points to guys the Sox might consider with pick 40.
Killey McD via Red Sox Stats tweet
Sounds like the lack of consensus on the talent at the top of the draft is going to make it hard for teams to line up their boards. The Pirates probably want to shop around a bit to save a bit for their later picks, but if no one's giving their price out yet, that's hard to do.
I also think it will make getting anyone in the top 8 or so very hard to sign for a significant under-slot savings, since they could reasonably expect to go in the next couple picks (ironically for my vote, maybe Rocker is the most likely to really slide). Jobe has already been mocked to the Tigers at #3, so I wouldn't expect him to be think about taking anything but a slight discount until after he passes them.
I'm starting to warm up to the idea of Henry Davis at #4 if Leiter isn't there. If he turns into Buster Posey, I'm more than OK with that.
My premise is that the 2 college guys are “safer” so the Sox will take one if available but Kiley made the point that your best players are usually HS SS’s, so teams don’t normally see so many of them they can work with in one draft and they’ll grab them; his evaluation of Davis was also interesting (essentially that he’s a bit less than the composite of his tools rankings) & is making go back and think about the choice.
I suspect that Davis will be there, but I no longer am sold on the Sox taking him over Lawler/ Watson.
I suspect that Davis will be there, but I no longer am sold on the Sox taking him over Lawler/ Watson.
We should be thrilled if that happens. If he's anything close to Posey that's probably a top 5% outcome.
The Jobe comments were really interesting. 3100 RPM slider? That's almost unheard of.
High school pitchers are so risky but he could be the guy who everyone kicks themselves for passing over in a few years.
Good podcast. I found it interesting to hear that Davis will be "better" as a catcher once there's a robot ump, which may be phased in over the next few years, because he's not very good at receiving and framing -- and that won't matter then. In a normal draft, he'd be considered a backup catcher or maybe a 1B/DH for an AL team, but if the bar is shifted downward for traditional catcher skills, he'll clear it. Also pegged Davis as a future .260/25 HR guy, not a batter on the level of J.T. Realmuto but maybe more of a Matt Wieters.
Says the HS shortstops on the level of Mayer and Lawlar are a rare archetype, and that many teams would jump at those first and a college pitcher second. (That has implications for Leiter/Rocker being available to us)
Says Jobe's stuff is "bonkers," projected as a starter with three 70-grade pitches and at least average command. Even higher ratings than a young Stephen Strasburg, and "further ahead" than Jack Leiter at a similar age, but of course, TINSTAAPP.
Says the HS shortstops on the level of Mayer and Lawlar are a rare archetype, and that many teams would jump at those first and a college pitcher second. (That has implications for Leiter/Rocker being available to us)
Says Jobe's stuff is "bonkers," projected as a starter with three 70-grade pitches and at least average command. Even higher ratings than a young Stephen Strasburg, and "further ahead" than Jack Leiter at a similar age, but of course, TINSTAAPP.
If his receiving is poor enough to extend to how he works with pitchers (not saying this is the case, just making the argument), then he'll be moved off the position, robot umps or no.
I'd also argue that if Davis becomes "better" with robots, so too will a lot of other hitting catchers who otherwise would have moved off the position in order to progress faster, meaning you aren't necessarily getting the value boost you might have thought as more teams potentially roll out weaker defensive catchers. That said, I'm not sold on that really being an endgame of robot umps, for the reason above. A guy won't catch for long if pitchers don't like throwing to him.
This is my fear with Davis—that the very possible combination of moving off catcher and the bat not playing up as expected result in a guy who is merely pretty good at a far less premium position.
I'd also argue that if Davis becomes "better" with robots, so too will a lot of other hitting catchers who otherwise would have moved off the position in order to progress faster, meaning you aren't necessarily getting the value boost you might have thought as more teams potentially roll out weaker defensive catchers. That said, I'm not sold on that really being an endgame of robot umps, for the reason above. A guy won't catch for long if pitchers don't like throwing to him.
This is my fear with Davis—that the very possible combination of moving off catcher and the bat not playing up as expected result in a guy who is merely pretty good at a far less premium position.
When they say .265/25 HR guy are they talking his most likely outcome or his ceiling? If that's his most likely outcome I can deal with that at 4. If they're talking ceiling then I'd be much less excited about him.
A top 10 catcher all time is closer to a 0.1% outcome, even for a top-of-the-draft pick.
Yes you're correct. I was probably too conservative in my percentile outcome estimate.
The most likely outcome of any Top 5 pick is a complete bust. The second most likely outcome a league average output for a handful of seasons.
Henry Davis is basically the Kyle Schwarber of this draft; best college bat but with positional question marks. If the Sox think the bat will translate, let alone translate at catcher, no one should be unhappy if Davis is the pick.
Yeah, unless they think Jobe is the next Kershaw, I'd much prefer they go pretty much any other route. If he's throwing that kind of slider at his age, I've got real concerns about how his arm is going to hold up.
So Lawler's ceiling is a plus fielding Xander Bogaerts that also can steal bases?!
The scouting reports in this thread are a constant reminder that you are going to get a hell of a prospect when drafting 4th...
May the Sox nail this pick and never again draft this high.
The scouting reports in this thread are a constant reminder that you are going to get a hell of a prospect when drafting 4th...
May the Sox nail this pick and never again draft this high.
Im settling into being really excited about Mayer, Leiter and Jobe but terrified of Jobe. Being a baseball fan for so long has taught all of us to beware the hard throwing, fast armed high school pitcher. It's not hard to dream on him becoming a top of the rotation stud but it feels like there's a good chance his arm falls off and that is scary. Unfortunately, that's the last of the guys I'm really excited about. I am not enamored with Davis. I just don't see the upside if he's not a catcher. I'd rather take one of the high school SS but I struggle with all three of them. Lawler seems like the best bet but something makes me think all three have high flame out potential. That said, when is the next time they have a chance to draft a guy with middle of the order potential who is a good bet to stay at SS? Hopefully never. It's hard to pass that up.
I have some concerns in a deep draft that they go with a Ty Madden, Colton Cowser, Jordan Wicks, Matt McClain college guy who will take less so they can add to their cache and maybe take someone like Jaden Hill or a prep guy like Whitaker or Muncy who are good but could go to school. That strategy may well pay off long term but it will ruin my Sunday evening.
I have some concerns in a deep draft that they go with a Ty Madden, Colton Cowser, Jordan Wicks, Matt McClain college guy who will take less so they can add to their cache and maybe take someone like Jaden Hill or a prep guy like Whitaker or Muncy who are good but could go to school. That strategy may well pay off long term but it will ruin my Sunday evening.
Some perspective from the Athletic:
https://theathletic.com/2692158/2021/07/08/red-sox-2021-mlb-draft-preview-four-paths-they-could-take-with-the-no-4-pick/
https://theathletic.com/2692158/2021/07/08/red-sox-2021-mlb-draft-preview-four-paths-they-could-take-with-the-no-4-pick/
If we end up taking a player who eventually contributes to the big league team, that would be a big win.
Yes but this is true for any draft pick. It's kinda stupid for Jennings to use that 40 bWAR threshold because basically no draft picks hit that threshold. By comparison, only five number one picks have hit that threshold. The real difference between #1 and #4 is that it's much easier to get a guy at #1 that will at least be a solid, long-term MLB starter than it is at #4. (For example, Delmon Young is largely considered something of a bust for a #1 pick but getting a player of that caliber at #4 would actually be a slightly above-average result.)
Is this where I get to ask the question frequently posed: Why can’t MLB teams trade draft picks?? Can you imagine how exciting it’d be right now if the Sox were engaged in trade talks that might include the #4 pick? Does that get us Scherzer?!
At this point, I’d be ok with any one of the consensus top 6 or so picks. We’ll be able to talk ourselves into this guy’s closeness to MLB, or that guy’s ceiling. I just don’t want us taking another Yorke so that we can pay more to get the #24 guy in the 2d and #45 guy in the third. I need the illusion that THIS #4 pick is gonna be the guy who makes it and puts up a career 40+ WAR. That’s going to be harder if every “expert” had him rated #16 or lower.
Because it’s not in the CBA, and any item the players ask to add the owners asked them to give something up. Any item the owners ask to add the players ask for them to give something up. No one is going to give anything up to allow trading of draft picks. In a perfect world changes could be made to the CBA that improve the game.
The Yorke pick is looking pretty good right now but I agree with this. I was a little hesitant on Jobe but the #4 pick doesnt come around often and I hope they swing for the fences. At the end of the day, however, I will trust whoever Bloom and company select. I am sure they have more knowledge/data than any of the writers making these mock drafts.
The Lawler ranking seems like quite the discrepancy between expected draft position and his immediate placement compared to the others…
Fangraphs link
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&filter=&team=&pos=&pg=0
MLB has top 8 in draft ranked at 60 overall on the 20-80 scale. I am a little confused because they only have the top 15 prospects in all of baseball at 60 or above. Casas, Downs, and Duran are all at 55. I can’t believe they would put the top 8 in this draft as part of the top 23 overall. I must be missing something.
MLB link
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&filter=&team=&pos=&pg=0
MLB has top 8 in draft ranked at 60 overall on the 20-80 scale. I am a little confused because they only have the top 15 prospects in all of baseball at 60 or above. Casas, Downs, and Duran are all at 55. I can’t believe they would put the top 8 in this draft as part of the top 23 overall. I must be missing something.
MLB link
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/
Rocker wont be in their top ~130 or so
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0
Future projection for the draft picks, but current ratings for guys already playing in the minor leagues?
Curious to hear people’s thoughts about the Sox taking Mayer over Lawler (who is thought to have higher upside according to some reports).
EDIT: Apologies — moving post to the Mayer board.
EDIT: Apologies — moving post to the Mayer board.