The 3-year plan?

Red(s)HawksFan · Mar 29, 2015

I think 2015 is not "the year" primarily because they've made a commitment (tacit rather than admitted) to their young pitching prospects to see what develops. Out of just Owens, Johnson, Rodriguez, Barnes, and Escobar, there's potential to fill at least two rotation spots and maybe a bullpen spot or two in 2016. I think if they are sold on two of those guys heading into next winter, that actually increases the chances that they'll splurge on a Price/Zimmermann type "number 1" since they'll have a couple dirt cheap pieces to balance out a high priced contract.

Drek717 · Mar 29, 2015

My read on the situation is that the FO's goal is to be competitive every year understanding that winning it all takes a lot of breaks going your way. To that end they've opted to go with a pitching staff lacking a true ace for the following reasons:
1. "true ace" pitchers are incredibly rare and almost never available.
2. when they are, or when a close approximation is, they get paid massive amounts of money for a lot of years, making them almost a lock to be a net bad value signing.
3. The Red Sox have three very promising starters who will be opening the season in AAA. None are viewed as "ace" material, but then almost no pitcher ever is until he breaks out and is such a pitcher.

So in order to maximize resources they flipped some of the older, less promising borderline ML SPs (De La Rosa and Webster) for a safety bet (Miley) to shore up the middle of the rotation, have Buchholz who clearly has ace stuff when he's right, have Kelly who has a ton of upside and is still young, and got Porcello who can be a solid #2 on a playoff team. Masterson is a nice boom/bust rotation addition. The end result is no major commitments but no major holes either.

The offense has been shored up to the point where instead of being the weakness it was last year it should be a major strength. That should be able to carry some water for the starting pitching while the FO finds out what they really have. It is entirely possible that enough of the starters have figured themselves out enough to carry the load, and should one or two fail Wright is a very interesting 6th starter to bring up followed by Johnson, Owens, and Rodriguez. If the staff totally collapses having an ace at the top wouldn't have saved them from a horrible 2-5.

As for the bullpen, it'll be interesting. If Uehara gets healthy and bounces back I think they have the makings of a very strong 'pen. I think that is where Barnes is headed and that it will be a great fit for him. Tazawa is a good setup man already proven in Boston, Ogando looks healthy and effective in spring training, as does Varvaro making that trade with the Braves look like a steal. Mujica was even pretty good last season after his early stumbles. Thats four solid RH pitching options already without calling up Barnes. Layne and Ross are two solid LHP candidates. Escobar is a nice LH option to have in AAA shoring them up as well. Workman is a nice swing man option who has the potential to find himself as well. Other than having an Andrew Miller level lefty killer I can't really see much weakness in the bullpen with a healthy and productive Uehara. Even if that doesn't happen they've got enough depth to where I don't think it's impossible they find someone else to hold down the fort without stretching themselves too thin in the middle. I mean, ultimately it's a bullpen, they're something of a crap shoot every year no matter how well you plan.

Ultimately it comes down to the starting 5 they've assembled by late June/early July, how well Bogaerts, Bradley, and Castillo are playing, and what they've done behind the dish now that Vazquez isn't available for opening day. Not a ton more uncertainty than most other competitive clubs go into the season with. Would it be nice to be the Cardinals and know that even if Wacha can't stay healthy, Martinez never harnesses his raw stuff, and Wong flops following a solid early sample in 2014 that you will still likely walk away with the division? Sure, but that just isn't how the AL East plays out.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Mar 29, 2015

I disagree with the premise that there is some kind of concerted plan that involves sacrificing chances to win in 2015. The team as currently constructed is one of the favorites in the AL to make the playoffs and, if that happens, could easily win it all. The possibility of improving the team with a mid-season pitching trade is very real but even if that doesn't happen the idea that a team without a legitimate ace starter somehow can't win the World Series is just total nonsense.

I think the plan for 2016 and 2017 is to wait and see what happens, for reasons that RedsHawksFan summarizes. A lot of times the best plan is to simply have a good framework for guiding analysis and then to keep reevaluating as new data comes into the picture. There doesn't need to be any firm plan re: the likes of Price or Zimmerman and the optimal scenarios probably involve the team beliieving that it doesn't have to give a huge contract to one of those guys, due to some combination of progression from internal options and maybe a trade that involves adding a top starter with less commitment.

Rasputin · Mar 29, 2015

The way I see it, the goals for 2015 are to get Vazquez, Castillo, and Betts fully integrated into the major league team so we have a better grasp on what kind of ballplayers they are. To get Bradley, Swihart, Owens, Rodriguez, Escobar, and Johnson ready to be contributors in 2016, perhaps with some big league time in 2015. To figure out whether Craig is ever going to be anything again. To transition Matt Barnes from minor league starter to major league reliever.

In an ideal world, Craig will be ready to take 1B in 2016 so we can let Napoli go, and Bradley will be ready to hold down a backup role without being a black hole at the plate, so we can just let Victorino go, and Papi will continue to be a stud so we don't have to replace our DH and 1B in the same offseason.

In that same ideal world, Buchholz finally puts it all together and convinces management that he can be consistently good, and Porcello takes a step forward, leading management to rip up Buchholz' option and sign them both to mid length extensions.

With Wade Miley, that would lock down three rotation spots for 2016. The other two would go to whichever of Owens, Rodriguez, Johnson, Kelly look like the best options. In an ideal world, I think that means Joe Kelly goes to the pen where he would form a pretty formidable duo with Matt Barnes, and the rotation would be Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, Owens, Rodriguez with Johnson still in AAA as depth.

So your 2016 Sox would look something like this: Ramirez, Betts, Castillo in the OF, Sandoval, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Craig in the IF with Papi DHing and Swihart and Vazquez catching, the rotation mentioned above, and a bullpen anchored by Koji, Barnes, Kelly, and Escobar, with Bradley backing up the OF, Marrero the IF, and Holt everywhere.

For 2017, Papi retires, we move Ramirez from left to first, and Bradley takes the CF job giving us the best defensive outfield in the game, a very young team, and a very talented team. We use the DH slot more to give a guy a partial day of rest than to have any one hitter in it. Swihart plays some first and third to get his bat in the lineup more.

And of course, the Sox are competitive all three years and they represent the start of a decade or so where the Sox are in the playoffs pretty much every year, winning the World Series a few more times.

Tyrone Biggums · Mar 29, 2015

2013 wasn't supposed to be the year either. All you can really do is be competitive and hope you get a couple lucky bounces in the playoffs. I don't think many people expected the Royals to get within 1 game of the world series title.

Pedroia's Itchy Nose · Mar 29, 2015

Personally, I think that the best way to summarize the current strategy is that no year will really ever be "The Year", at least not in the near future. Trying to manufacture a year where you are the favorite going into the season requires one of two things you happen: you get lucky with some unpredictably favorable signings or trades, or you mortgage the future.

I think that if the former opportunity presents itself then the Red Sox will go for it, but I don't think its the actual plan.

Instead, I think the Red Sox's strategy is to get as much short term value as possible without significantly compromising the future. That's going to lead to a lot of seasons where the team looks solid but never quite as solid as you would like. They aren't going to overspend to fill a short term "need". I think that's the essence of what the Sox are trying to do -- go into every year as a contender while continuing to build for the future.

The only way I think the Red Sox are going to go into a season with a real sense of being favorites are if multiple prospects clearly make it at the major league level at the same time and/or they pull off a coup type signing or trade. I think the former is probably more likely than the latter.

Edit: to be clear about what I mean when I say "get lucky with some unpredictably favorable signings or trades" is basically that you manage to sign a star player for way less than the market expects or you manage to make a very favorable trade (either by ripping a team off or by finding a trading partner whose needs and evaluations really line up well with the Sox). Obviously teams are constantly looking for these opportunities, but they are very rare and can't be counted on to happen.

geoduck no quahog · Mar 29, 2015

Let's not lose sight of the monetary issues in this 3-year plan. Everyone (including me) believes the Red Sox will need to get below tax level in 2016. That enters into any discussion about Victorino, Napoli and Ortiz, along with the concept of acquiring/re-signing pitching and getting rid of cost-controlled guys like Craig.

What does that mean for 2017?

wade boggs chicken dinner · Mar 29, 2015

Personally, I think that the best way to summarize the current strategy is that no year will really ever be "The Year", at least not in the near future. Trying to manufacture a year where you are the favorite going into the season requires one of two things you happen: you get lucky with some unpredictably favorable signings or trades, or you mortgage the future.

I think that if the former opportunity presents itself then the Red Sox will go for it, but I don't think its the actual plan.

Instead, I think the Red Sox's strategy is to get as much short term value as possible without significantly compromising the future. That's going to lead to a lot of seasons where the team looks solid but never quite as solid as you would like. They aren't going to overspend to fill a short term "need". I think that's the essence of what the Sox are trying to do -- go into every year as a contender while continuing to build for the future.

The only way I think the Red Sox are going to go into a season with a real sense of being favorites are if multiple prospects clearly make it at the major league level at the same time and/or they pull off a coup type signing or trade. I think the former is probably more likely than the latter.

Edit: to be clear about what I mean when I say "get lucky with some unpredictably favorable signings or trades" is basically that you manage to sign a star player for way less than the market expects or you manage to make a very favorable trade (either by ripping a team off or by finding a trading partner whose needs and evaluations really line up well with the Sox). Obviously teams are constantly looking for these opportunities, but they are very rare and can't be counted on to happen.

The other way to put this is that the Red Sox are trying to avoid the huge, crippling contracts for over 30 FAs that requires a miracle to undo. (Can you imagine where we'd be if the Dodgers hadn't taken Crawford and Beckett off our hands?)

So I agree that it is the intention of the Sox - for the next 5-10 years - is to put together a team that should compete for a playoff spot; figure out after 1/3rd of the season where they are; and fill in accordingly. If a #1 starter really matters, it would be in the playoffs so there's no need to overpay for the rest of the season.

BTW, in a couple of years or so, the "get lucky with some unpredictably favorable signings" might mean Yoan Moncada. How cool would that be?

Pedroia's Itchy Nose · Mar 29, 2015

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
The other way to put this is that the Red Sox are trying to avoid the huge, crippling contracts for over 30 FAs that requires a miracle to undo. (Can you imagine where we'd be if the Dodgers hadn't taken Crawford and Beckett off our hands?)

So I agree that it is the intention of the Sox - for the next 5-10 years - is to put together a team that should compete for a playoff spot; figure out after 1/3rd of the season where they are; and fill in accordingly. If a #1 starter really matters, it would be in the playoffs so there's no need to overpay for the rest of the season.

BTW, in a couple of years or so, the "get lucky with some unpredictably favorable signings" might mean Yoan Moncada. How cool would that be?

Yeah, paying a top free agent for what's likely to be 2-3 years of good performance, 2-3 years of mediocre performance, and 2-3 years of cringeworthiness is a great example of going for it This Year at the cost of the future. The other major example is trading your top prospects for short years of ML talent.

I don't think Moncada fits into the kind of frame I was talking about though. The Moncada signing is the opposite really of acquiring talent that will help now. Getting lucky in the way I was describing in my original post means having the opportunity to acquire a bankable talent that allows you to "go for it now" without having to pay the kind of premium that damages the future too much.

reggiecleveland · Mar 29, 2015

Rudy Pemberton said:
I think the mindset of people in general is always that the future is at least a little brighter than the present. The 2016 team could be better than the 2015 team if the right decisions are made. It could also be a lot worse- given that Ortiz, Napoli, Porcello, and Masterson are all FA, for example.

I would feel better if you phrased that as a question Rudy.

Rasputin · Mar 30, 2015

theapportioner said:
Going cheap for 2016 might be a tough pill to swallow if the Red Sox underperform this season. Cherington and Farrell have some rope for winning in 2013 but that won't last forever.

The Red Sox aren't going cheap. Eking under the luxury tax threshold is not going cheap. Napoli, Victorino, and the Dodger money come off the payroll and that's like forty million or so, and there's a decent chance they are both replaced with guys already in house.

Papelbon's Poutine · Mar 30, 2015

Or like $33M but what's $7M, amirite?

lxt · Mar 30, 2015

I think Rasputin summed things up nicely. The only thing I'd add is that if Napoli remains healthy and productive bringing him back for two more years may not be a bad move. It all comes down to how the pitching staff does. If they flame out then the Sox will either have to make less than desirable moves mid-season or let it ride out until 2016. If they make a good run then 2016 provides a great deal of flexibility. The one I'm watching and looking forward to is Rodriguez.

Rasputin · Mar 30, 2015

Papelbon's Poutine said:
Or like $33M but what's $7M, amirite?

My bad. Napoli, Victorino, Masterson, and the Dodger money are fortyish million.

FinanceAdvice · Mar 31, 2015

It's refreshing to see many posters feel, the way I do, that this year could be "THE YEAR." I say the Sox are going for it this year. I think Sox can win AL East. With the hitting and possible realization of expectations from the rotation, I believe the Sox can make this year the Year. Every team has question marks and that what make baseball so much fun. They are IN IT TO WIN IT.

Red(s)HawksFan · Mar 31, 2015

FinanceAdvice said:
It's refreshing to see many posters feel, the way I do, that this year could be "THE YEAR." I say the Sox are going for it this year. I think Sox can win AL East. With the hitting and possible realization of expectations from the rotation, I believe the Sox can make this year the Year. Every team has question marks and that what make baseball so much fun. They are IN IT TO WIN IT.

Winning in 2015 and building for the future are not mutually exclusive concepts. 2013 is proof of that.

nighthob · Mar 31, 2015

As a Red Sox and Giants fan I can get behind a stretch where they alternate as world series champions.

FinanceAdvice · Apr 1, 2015

Red(s)HawksFan said:
Winning in 2015 and building for the future are not mutually exclusive concepts. 2013 is proof of that.

I completely agree. Its a careful balancing act to do but possibly BC has the brains to cultivate talent in minors while winning this year. I think the farm system with Swihart and Owens on top is proof of a good future. But as you know the balancing act is difficult. Do you give up Swihart plus a couple more to get Hamels? The big question mark for me this year is the starting rotation. As an after thought you may well add will Vazquez's relacement be good enough.

4 6 3 DP · Apr 1, 2015

I look back at the signings before the 2013 season and basically compare the major few signings for 2013 and 2015.

3/39 for Vic
3/45 for Napoli (I know, 1/13 and 2/32)
3/39 for Dempster
2/10 for Gomes
1/9.5 for Drew
1/4.25 for Koji
vs

4/88 for Hanley
5/95 for Pablo
1/9.5 for Masterson

Obviously you have other deals for roster construction but I see basically a very good contract for Napoli, a garbage one for Dempster (90 ERA+, negative WAR), and basically a 1 year, 39 million dollar deal for Victorino because he's a negative asset right now and was useless last year, but obviously a key piece in a WS title).

So if you want to spend either 57 million on the top for one season or 50.5 on the bottom (obviously not a perfect comparison), but I am all for the end of this buying middle class guys and going out and getting top end players. I think the price per pound is always better to go get elite talent than to spend it on middle class guys, especially when you have the minor league system the Sox do. And I say that thinking that Pablo is a ridiculous overpay for a guy who's not likely to profile as more than a decent hitter - but I look at a world where there isn't a lot of available 3B talent and I see the team now having one set for 3 years (and if god forbid Panda eats his way off third base, Hanley can cover it). Ortiz probably a 2 yr option, but DH bats, while necessary, I think is something this team can attack in FA if necessary.

So the three year plan is simple - Hanley/Mookie/Rusney is an elite OF and JBJ covers the risk. Panda/X/Pedroia/1B are an excellent IF. With Swihart and Vazquez they should have C covered unless something very badly goes wrong or Vazquez comes back from TJS and can't throw.

They need a bat at 1B, or alternatively Panda/Hanley goes there and JBJ or some other OF is in the lineup. To me, this is the first time since 2003 that I see an elite level lineup that is likely to be mostly stable for 3 years. Obviously Walker became Mueller became Graffanino and Nomar became Cabrera became Renteria, but there was a stable of elite hitters who populated that lineup for 3 years. We have it now.

The issue now is pitching development, and in John Farrell the Red Sox have one of the finest pitching evaluators in the game to hopefully build a strong young pitching staff out of in the next few years. If not, the challenge is to take the minor league depth and turn it into pitching. Either way, hard not to be extremely optimistic about this offense for the next 3-4 years.

67WasBest · Apr 4, 2015

I see this as a long term plan for excellence as opposed to a window of years.

1) Build a good team in Boston
2) Stock the farm with as many high ceiling guys as can be obtained
3) Kids push vets for positions
4) Vet gets traded for prospect, or positional need in Boston, while still having value
5) Take draft choices when a vet goes full term on their contract
6) Restock farm with kids obtained for Vets, either through trade or draft picks
7) Repeat 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 annually

It's a smart sustainable plan.

ivanvamp · Apr 6, 2015

The OF thread is locked, so I didn't know where to put this. I'm sure it's been talked about a lot, but the more I think about it, the more I'd like the Sox to consider pursuing a deal involving Papelbon and Victorino.

Papelbon is still a very good closer (2.04 era, 2.53 fip, 0.91 whip, 8.5 k/9), and is scheduled to make $13m in 2015, and has a vesting option for $13m in 2016 (which he'll most likely reach). So the Phils are on the hook, most likely, for 2/26 for him.

Victorino doesn't offer a ton anymore in terms of playing, mostly because he's been dealing with a lot of injuries and has lost some effectiveness. But he's only on the hook for $13m in 2015, and then is gone after that.

The Phillies could use some salary relief. The Red Sox could use another quality closer because of the uncertainty surrounding Koji.

So the Sox send Philly Victorino and a mid-level prospect for Papelbon. Philly gets some salary relief and an OF who is better, at least, than their current RF (Grady Sizemore), and who is a fan favorite in Philadelphia. Plus a prospect for their trouble.

The Sox get a major bullpen arm which, frankly, they probably could use. That is, if they aren't committed to going with some of the kids (and they have plenty of those options).

This allows them to groom Barnes or whomever for a year or so while Papelbon/Koji lock down the 8-9 innings for two seasons. And if Koji does come back healthy this year and is his "old" self (we already know he's "old"), then they could trade Papelbon in July and probably get the prospect back from someone.

Red(s)HawksFan · Apr 6, 2015

ivanvamp said:
The OF thread is locked, so I didn't know where to put this. I'm sure it's been talked about a lot, but the more I think about it, the more I'd like the Sox to consider pursuing a deal involving Papelbon and Victorino.

Papelbon is still a very good closer (2.04 era, 2.53 fip, 0.91 whip, 8.5 k/9), and is scheduled to make $13m in 2015, and has a vesting option for $13m in 2016 (which he'll most likely reach). So the Phils are on the hook, most likely, for 2/26 for him.

Victorino doesn't offer a ton anymore in terms of playing, mostly because he's been dealing with a lot of injuries and has lost some effectiveness. But he's only on the hook for $13m in 2015, and then is gone after that.

The Phillies could use some salary relief. The Red Sox could use another quality closer because of the uncertainty surrounding Koji.

So the Sox send Philly Victorino and a mid-level prospect for Papelbon. Philly gets some salary relief and an OF who is better, at least, than their current RF (Grady Sizemore), and who is a fan favorite in Philadelphia. Plus a prospect for their trouble.

The Sox get a major bullpen arm which, frankly, they probably could use. That is, if they aren't committed to going with some of the kids (and they have plenty of those options).

This allows them to groom Barnes or whomever for a year or so while Papelbon/Koji lock down the 8-9 innings for two seasons. And if Koji does come back healthy this year and is his "old" self (we already know he's "old"), then they could trade Papelbon in July and probably get the prospect back from someone.

The Phillies turned down the Brewers when they offered Jonathan Broxton plus a "mid-level" prospect for Papelbon this winter because they wanted a top prospect with upside (and were willing to eat salary to do it). Why would they change their minds for Shane Victorino?

gryoung · Apr 6, 2015

67WasBest said:
I see this as a long term plan for excellence as opposed to a window of years.

1) Build a good team in Boston
2) Stock the farm with as many high ceiling guys as can be obtained
3) Kids push vets for positions
4) Vet gets traded for prospect, or positional need in Boston, while still having value
5) Take draft choices when a vet goes full term on their contract
6) Restock farm with kids obtained for Vets, either through trade or draft picks
7) Repeat 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 annually

This pretty much sums up what I believe the Sox strategy to be. I remember several years back, when Theo said their plan was to emulate the Yanks to a degree ---- set the core of the team from the farm system and supplement that core with acquisitions. He was referring to the NY teams with Posada/Jeter/Williams/Pettite. It appears Ben is staying the course. Power was lacking - hence the Henley and Pablo acquisitions. Lots of young talent already up and more in the wings.

ivanvamp · Apr 6, 2015

Red(s)HawksFan said:
The Phillies turned down the Brewers when they offered Jonathan Broxton plus a "mid-level" prospect for Papelbon this winter because they wanted a top prospect with upside (and were willing to eat salary to do it). Why would they change their minds for Shane Victorino?

I didn't realize that had been offered.

But....Amaro. That kind of kills any Philly discussion. They want a top prospect if all they're giving up is a rolled up newspaper.

Manuel Scoreboard · Apr 6, 2015

nighthob said:
As a Red Sox and Giants fan I can get behind a stretch where they alternate as world series champions.

Same here. Nothing would make me happier.

Al Zarilla · Apr 6, 2015

nighthob said:
As a Red Sox and Giants fan I can get behind a stretch where they alternate as world series champions.

Manuel Scoreboard said:
Same here. Nothing would make me happier.

Giants have to be second most liked team on SOSH. S. Bong, Lars, Gaelgirl are Giants first and Natty, Jimc, nvalvo, you two, me, who else, has Giants first or second?

I'd actually like to see Kershaw in a world series someday. Puig, Greinke too.

Tangled Up In Red · Apr 6, 2015

Al Zarilla said:
Giants have to be second most liked team on SOSH. S. Bong, Lars, Gaelgirl are Giants first and Natty, Jimc, nvalvo, you two, me, who else, has Giants first or second?

I'd actually like to see Kershaw in a world series someday. Puig, Greinke too.

I'm a San Franciscan, Sox first, Giants second.

ookami7m · Apr 6, 2015

Al Zarilla said:
Giants have to be second most liked team on SOSH. S. Bong, Lars, Gaelgirl are Giants first and Natty, Jimc, nvalvo, you two, me, who else, has Giants first or second?

I'd actually like to see Kershaw in a world series someday. Puig, Greinke too.

The Giants are my NL team, mostly because of Bochy and the personalities on the team (Lincecum, Posey, Belt, Pence, and formerly Panda). Even before living there.

JimD · Apr 7, 2015

Al Zarilla said:
I'd actually like to see Kershaw in a world series someday. Puig, Greinke too.

They can play the Sox in odd years.

The 3-year plan?

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