The 2nd Season - 2019 Playoff Thread

Light-Tower-Power

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Nate Silver tweeted the specifics yesterday:

“We're interpreting the Warriors' statement as meaning KD definitely won't be back until Game 3, then an increasing chance after that but no guarantee. For Cousins, we assume an outside chance for Game 1 and then the chances increase such that he's definitely back by Game 6.”
I wonder if the Warriors really want Cousins back. I can't see how trying to integrate him into the rotation during the Finals is a good idea.
 

Kliq

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Obviously this is just speculation but I think DA would have done it if it was just that KL was a flight risk. But if you recall, the bigger risk was that how engaged KL would be coming back from his injury - in fact, teams had to worry whether he was going to play at all until he got where he wanted to be - and whether the injury would affect his play.

TOR was in a great position where they had an All-Star from whom they clearly wanted to move on plus Pops had no interest in a rebuild so I guess Pops was okay in going to the playoffs every year but not really having a chance to win it all.
I agree. Kawhi has been so great this postseason that some people may be forgetting that he had just an insane exit from San Antonio and it was unclear how much he was even going to play for his new team. If NBA teams all knew they were getting 31-8-3 on 51-44-88 shooting w/super-human defense playoff Kawhi, I'm sure San Antonio could have gotten a lot more.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I wonder if the Warriors really want Cousins back. I can't see how trying to integrate him into the rotation during the Finals is a good idea.
From my seat the 3 most important injury reports from the Warriors in this order:

1a. Iguodala - Crucial to Warriors in defending Giannis/Kawhi
1b. Cousins - Has to be considered a negative to the Warriors should he return.
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3. Durant - They perform fine without Durant assuming Iguodala is healthy while allowing better rhythm to Curry and Draymond's offensive game.


I will be placing a Finals series wager under following circumstances:

1. Toronto is the matchup that I am wagering on.
2. Iguodala is cleared to play.
3. The price isn't hammered down to +200.
* If Cousins is cleared to play possible a 1.5x or 2x bump in wager.
 

bowiac

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Mostly agreed, although I'm pretty sure 538 radically adjusted their model this season to decrease its absurd day-to-day volatility, weighing things like past performance and playoff experience much more heavily than they did before. They actually had TOR as mild favorites over MIL when they were down 0-2 and everyone was completely writing them off — I think largely due to the presence of Kawhi and the greenness of MIL. Their model is looking pretty good on that front right now.

As for the Ws, again, I'm assuming the recent ~20% drop is the KD news, which seems reasonable enough when talking about the two time defending Finals MVP who was putting up 34 ppg on .655 TS when he went down — although I have no idea how you quantify something like "Durant probably won't be ready for Game 1 but is making good progress and we hope to have him back during the series."
538 switched from a "top down" model (one based on team performance) to a "bottom up" model (one based on player talent) to address the issue of injuries, shortened playoff rotations, and teams not trying very hard during the regular season. The current model still incorporates playoff experience, but it's no longer a major factor.

This is similar to what a lot of other models do now. Their player valuation system is still not very good, but their rest of the method is pretty close to correct now.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yeah not trading for Kawhi doesn't look awesome now, but a year ago there were huge huge question marks about his health, drive, etc. I bet if you polled this board (maybe we did, I can't remember) that the majority would have voted not to trade Jaylen for him.
Here's the thread: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/jurassic-world-3-where-the-dinosaurs-have-quad-injuries-and-hate-their-shoe-deals.23074/. No poll but a quick skim of the first few posts indicates that I was just repeating what was in that thread.

As a side note, while I assume the Sixers still don't regret not trading Simmons (even though they were ousted by KL) but if the Lakers did any self-reflection (I'm sure they don't), they could have had him - and probably resigned him - for Ingram, Kuzma, and Hart and draft picks. Unless, of course, Popovich really wanted to exile KL and didn't care about the best package.

It's funny how far away SA's asks were from what they eventually got.
 

johnmd20

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Golden State is going to win the title. Maybe it will go 6 games, but probably not. They aren't going to be beaten by either Mil or Toronto.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I don't know if GS will win, but if I was a GS fan, and my team was 32-1 without KD (or whatever the ridiculous record is now), when Curry played, I'd feel pretty good about my chances either way....
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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That 32-1 mark or whatever it currently tallies is inflated by the fact that a few of those wins were against weaker teams, or in the case of the playoffs teams that don't match up well with Golden State.

Portland doesn't have the wing defenders to slow the Warriors and for all the hype around Houston, their inability to effectively replace the prior seasons defensive production from Ariza and Mbah a Moute made the Warriors a tough draw as well.

Both Toronto snd Milwaukee have the personnel to, at least, match up with the Dubs. Not saying that either will beat them but they have more to work with than any of the teams Golden State has faced thus far.
 

johnmd20

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Is KL's supporting cast in TOR a lot worse than his supporting cast in SA?
Probably not, or it might be close, but 2019 Golden State isn't the 2014 Heat with Lebron half checked out and very little help outside of Wade. GS is a juggernaut, they aren't going to lose to anyone. This is their title, like it's been the last two years.

This team is one nut punch away from 5 in a row. It's pretty impressive.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Probably not, or it might be close, but 2019 Golden State isn't the 2014 Heat with Lebron half checked out and very little help outside of Wade. GS is a juggernaut, they aren't going to lose to anyone. This is their title, like it's been the last two years.

This team is one nut punch away from 5 in a row. It's pretty impressive.
Sorry, I meant 2017 when people thought the Spurs had a legit shot at beating GSW. https://www.sbnation.com/2019/4/29/18522085/kawhi-leonard-raptors-nba-playoffs-2019-dynasty-disrupt
 

johnmd20

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Sorry, I meant 2017 when people thought the Spurs had a legit shot at beating GSW. https://www.sbnation.com/2019/4/29/18522085/kawhi-leonard-raptors-nba-playoffs-2019-dynasty-disrupt
San Antonio was certainly dominated that first game until Zaza pulled his antics, but I wonder if that team had enough to win 4 against GS. Unfortunately we'll never know. Cleveland got pretty waxed by Golden State in the finals. And Cleveland had a pretty solid team that year.
 

jon abbey

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Probably not, or it might be close, but 2019 Golden State isn't the 2014 Heat with Lebron half checked out and very little help outside of Wade. GS is a juggernaut, they aren't going to lose to anyone. This is their title, like it's been the last two years.

This team is one nut punch away from 5 in a row. It's pretty impressive.
Although Durant doesn’t go there if they win in 2016, so who knows.
 

Tony C

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Or the Toronto defense has been that good.
This was in regard to Middleton being awful. It's very late to respond, but just to say Middleton has been rushing shots/missing open shots all series long -- they're bunching on Giannis and leaving other guys open. Middleton has to be able to take advantage; I wouldn't give Toronto defense much credit in re his poor performance.

In re all the Kawhi talk, how much of this is a black mark on Popovich? Both in re alienating Kawhi and then not getting great value for him? Pops is one of the all-time greats and this doesn't change it, but...even the greats have black marks and this one it seems to me is a pretty big one.

Also, in re Jaylen having more value last year than this -- sure. But that's the job of Ainge just as it's on the Lakers that they overrated their young guys (and other examples of the same sort of overrating by teams of their own kids are noted above): we're chat board slobs, a guy like Ainge needs to have gone all in on Leonard and it's on him if he overrated Brown/underrated Leonard or some combo of the two. Fair or not, that's the way a GM has to be judged ...not to say there's a lot of inevitable uncertainty in making such calls.
 

HomeRunBaker

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In re all the Kawhi talk, how much of this is a black mark on Popovich? Both in re alienating Kawhi and then not getting great value for him? Pops is one of the all-time greats and this doesn't change it, but...even the greats have black marks and this one it seems to me is a pretty big one.
I don’t know how much if any of this is on Pop. The issues Team Kawhi had was with the medical diagnosis and medical people for the Spurs. I’m guessing that would fall more under Buford’s watch than Pop’s although not certain of their management infrastructure in SA to say that definitively.

Let’s not forget that Kawhi is still damgaed goods despite his performance in these playoffs and is still a FA in another couple of weeks (or sooner). He sat for 22 games this year to protect his knee and is now is hobbling around on one leg while clearly not at 100% especially defensively.



Also, in re Jaylen having more value last year than this -- sure. But that's the job of Ainge just as it's on the Lakers that they overrated their young guys (and other examples of the same sort of overrating by teams of their own kids are noted above): we're chat board slobs, a guy like Ainge needs to have gone all in on Leonard and it's on him if he overrated Brown/underrated Leonard or some combo of the two. Fair or not, that's the way a GM has to be judged ...not to say there's a lot of inevitable uncertainty in making such calls.
That isn’t how the Laker GM can be judged because a title doesn’t necessarily mean you have the final say......in many organizations they don’t and LA is one example.

Going back to infrastructure.....who were the Lakers decision makers? Buss, Pelinka, Magic, LeBron, Rich Paul, Kurt Rambis, Mrs Rambis, Walton, any of a slew of others?

They overrated the guys they kept and underrated the guys they let go in Randle and Russell but we don’t know who made these calls. It’s a complete cluster of an organiation right now thanks to Buss’ lack of leadership.
 

lovegtm

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That isn’t how the Laker GM can be judged because a title doesn’t necessarily mean you have the final say......in many organizations they don’t and LA is one example.

Going back to infrastructure.....who were the Lakers decision makers? Buss, Pelinka, Magic, LeBron, Rich Paul, Kurt Rambis, Mrs Rambis, Walton, any of a slew of others?

They overrated the guys they kept and underrated the guys they let go in Randle and Russell but we don’t know who made these calls. It’s a complete cluster of an organiation right now thanks to Buss’ lack of leadership.
Wouldn’t you say that Jeanie has to take most of the blame, as the one who created and enabled the cluster? She’s also the one with unilateral authority to put a stop to the nonsense. If she wants to delegate that authority, probably a good move, but she clearly hasn’t done so meaningfully or effectively.
 

ElUno20

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Jeanie is an awful owner. She's gotten a pass because the media has always loved her here in LA but it's turning. At their core, the brothers and her dont see eye to eye so it will always be a fight. They are crumbling under their dad's legacy.


On tonight's game, it's crazy the Raptors are 1 game away from the finals. I'm rooting for the bucks to win for a better finals matchup but it would be awesome for that city to have a finals appearance.

Also, if Giannis hasn't been playing Infrared on repeat all day, he's living wrong.
 
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DJnVa

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With the HUGE caveat that Jaylen is not Kawhi, he is nearly the same size (same height, 10 lbs lighter) and is willing to work on defense...there is this:

In Games 3-5, Giannis is 9-of-27 from the field with four turnovers in the 112 offensive possessions where he's been guarded by Leonard, per the NBA's matchup data.
Is there something that KL is doing that Jaylen could do a poor man's version of? And what is that? Or is KL just on a different level altogether in regards to defense?

Some video here of KL defending Giannis: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/how-kawhi-leonard-and-the-raptors-have-shut-down-giannis-antetokounmpo-to-take-control-of-the-conference-finals/
 

HomeRunBaker

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Wouldn’t you say that Jeanie has to take most of the blame, as the one who created and enabled the cluster? She’s also the one with unilateral authority to put a stop to the nonsense. If she wants to delegate that authority, probably a good move, but she clearly hasn’t done so meaningfully or effectively.
Yes absolutely as she has the final authoritative answer as do all owners. Was she sold on these moves by any of the others I listed? I’m guessing yes but we have no idea who most influenced any individual decision.....which is why I can’t blame Magic or Pelinka (or anyone else) when the top of the org chart is so disheveled.
 

HomeRunBaker

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With the HUGE caveat that Jaylen is not Kawhi, he is nearly the same size (same height, 10 lbs lighter) and is willing to work on defense...there is this:



Is there something that KL is doing that Jaylen could do a poor man's version of? And what is that? Or is KL just on a different level altogether in regards to defense?

Some video here of KL defending Giannis: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/how-kawhi-leonard-and-the-raptors-have-shut-down-giannis-antetokounmpo-to-take-control-of-the-conference-finals/
They are on two different hemispheres as far as defensive skill goes imo. Kawhi is doing this even with limited mobility and explosion. He plays such good positionally while understanding angles as well as obv studying a ton of tape to best utilize these strengths.
 

DJnVa

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They are on two different hemispheres as far as defensive skill goes imo. Kawhi is doing this even with limited mobility and explosion. He plays such good positionally while understanding angles as well as obv studying a ton of tape to best utilize these strengths.
Yes, I know he's better than a 3rd year Brown. I'm wondering if this is something he can get to--if not at Kawhi's level then something close enough to it that it's an option for the Celtics for certain periods of the game.
 

InstaFace

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Kawhi Leonard has gotten steadily more menacing as this game has gone on.

Edit: I'd call that dunk on Giannis fairly menacing.
 
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scottyno

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steph curry getting his reps in before the finals by wearing a vanvleet jersey these last 3 games
 

DJnVa

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No Reggie, what you want to is NOT put the referees in position to make a tough call. What are you talking about?