The 2nd Season - 2019 Playoff Thread

bowiac

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The Bucks had an opposition adjusted margin of victory of 8 points per game. That's only been done 21 times in the last 40 years. About two thirds of those teams won the title: http://bkref.com/tiny/n1xlR

It sucks not to be competitive, but despite the suddenness of their success this year, the Bucks are a historically great team.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Guilty as well. I thought the difference between the two was real, but wasn't really *that* big. Turns out...it has been enormous.
There is clearly a decent delta between the two but you also have to factor in Siakam's leap as well as the addition of Danny Green who is a very good 3-D wing. Finally, Nurse appears to be an upgrade as well so also boosted Toronto's performance this season.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Kawhi has pieces of DeRozan in his stool. I underestimated how much better he would make Toronto.
Kawhi no doubt is an upgrade over DeRozan, who was always underrated on this board, but the Raptors didn’t have Siakam or Green when he was here.......and a non-20% shooting version of Kyle Lowry.



And if we learned anything from both second round eastern conference series is that we shouldn't overreact to any first game
I have Raptors in the series at +230 and added a little more at +380 this morning and the Unders are still the play every game until number is adjusted (geez I sound like the CNBC touts).

Their job is to split in Milwaukee and showed to me that these are two pretty evenly balanced teams last night with or without Lowry and Lopez doing their Bird/Nique impersonations. Whichever team went on their 8-0 run just prior to the horn was going to win......just like their regular season matchups when at full strength. This has all the makings of a classic series.
 

Kliq

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Comparing Kawhi to DeRozan isn't a fair comp since the whole situation with Kawhi was that San Antonio felt that they HAD to trade him and some teams were certainly scared off of Leonard they didn't think he would resign with them, so it would be a one year rental. San Antonio didn't trade Kawhi because they thought DeRozan was an equal player, they had limited options if they wanted to still remain competitive.
 

bowiac

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Fun fact about DeRozan, 10 years into his career, he's has exactly one season where his team hasn't played better with his ass on the bench. This is across multiple coaches, teams, teammates, usages, etc... Everything changes, except the one constant is that DeRozan's teams play better without him.



But sure, keep talking about how DeRozan is underrated.
 
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SemperFidelisSox

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Toronto going with an 8 man rotation and playing Kawhi 40+ minutes is just not sustainable. They have no depth. They looked tired in that 4th quarter, especially Kawhi.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Fun fact about DeRozan, 11 years into his career, he's has exactly one season where his team hasn't played better with his ass on the bench. This is across multiple coaches, teams, teammates, usages, etc... Everything changes, except the one constant is that DeRozan's teams play better without him.



But sure, keep talking about how DeRozan is underrated.
There is obviously a ton of noise in that independent data being used as I do recall the Jae Crowder > Paul George comparison based on a similar data set.
 

bowiac

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There is obviously a ton of noise in that independent data being used as I do recall the Jae Crowder > Paul George comparison based on a similar data set.
That's not accurate. Paul George has been a huge plus every season of his career, even the stub period when he came back less than 100% after his leg injury. Crowder has predictably been up and down (although also grades well on net).

You're correct that there's a ton of noise in the data, but this is 10 seasons now, and has followed him to a new team now. It's basically impossible to find another well regarded player with this long a track record of having their teams play better when they're on the bench. Go ahead and try.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Fun fact about DeRozan, 10 years into his career, he's has exactly one season where his team hasn't played better with his ass on the bench. This is across multiple coaches, teams, teammates, usages, etc... Everything changes, except the one constant is that DeRozan's teams play better without him.



But sure, keep talking about how DeRozan is underrated.
Don’t forget about his playoff beastliness...

Net plus-minus per 100 poss.
====
2013-14: -6.6
2014-15: -5.3
2015-16: -4.8
2016-17: -13.1
2017-18: -18.1
2018-19: -25.8

But... PPG!!!!!
 
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Devizier

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There's something to be said about the Spurs' penchant for guys who don't pass the "advanced metrics" sniff test. Derozan is an example but Rudy Gay and to a lesser extent Lamarcus Aldridge also fit.

While it's true that they haven't won a championship in five years, they have continued to make the playoffs, even after Kawhi got hurt/forced his way out of town. I don't know what it is Pop/Buford are seeing in these guys but they obviously are seeing something.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Don’t forget about his playoff beastliness...

Net plus-minus per 100 poss.
====
2013-14: -6.6
2014-15: -5.3
2015-16: -4.8
2016-17: -13.1
2017-18: -18.1
2018-19: -25.8

But... PPG!!!!!
At least some of those numbers in the playoffs pass the smell test as he’s downright stunk in many of them. I don’t think Lowry’s performance in many of those playoff games helps DeRozan’s net numbers either.

But sure.....he’s a below average player.
 

JCizzle

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ESPN just showed a stat that Dame had 4 FG or fewer in these last two games. Makes me feel a tiny bit better about Kyrie.
 
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HowBoutDemSox

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ESPN just showed a stat that Dame had 4 FG or fewer in these last two games. Makes me feel a tiny bit better about Kyrie.
Dame also had a lousy four games against the Pelicans last year when they got swept in the first round, and then came back strong this year against OKC and Denver. And those Pels didn't have a defenses like Milwaukee does this year. It happens, even to Dame/Kyrie level players.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I would not be surprised if KD is done for the year. It just smells that way.

This is pretty awesome for those who are aware of the backstory:

 

Kliq

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Does anybody happen to know if Steph Curry and Seth Curry are related? Did their father play in the NBA? What do the parents think about the brothers playing against each other in a playoff series?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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So the Blazers and Evan Turner in particular talked openly how Stotts preference to drop during screens was killing them against Curry/Thompson. Tonight they aren't dropping and this is the result thus far.

As a side note, it was pretty remarkable how open the Blazers players were in being critical of their team's coaching decisions.
 

Kliq

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So the Blazers and Evan Turner in particular talked openly how Stotts preference to drop during screens was killing them against Curry/Thompson. Tonight they aren't dropping and this is the result thus far.

As a side note, it was pretty remarkable how open the Blazers players were in being critical of their team's coaching decisions.
I noticed that as well. They are hedging the screens hard and forcing Curry/Klay to make a tough pass to the roll man. It's led to some easy buckets for Looney, but they've gotten some turnovers from it and they aren't getting killed from three.

With Durant out, GS needs buckets from someone besides Curry and Klay. Lillard didn't even play well, but they've gotten good offense from their role players.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Does anybody happen to know if Steph Curry and Seth Curry are related? Did their father play in the NBA? What do the parents think about the brothers playing against each other in a playoff series?
I watched last nights game on Telemundo during at BWI Airport in Baltimore during my 3-hour connection. It was awesome.
 

dhellers

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So the Blazers and Evan Turner in particular talked openly how Stotts preference to drop during screens was killing them against Curry/Thompson. Tonight they aren't dropping and this is the result thus far.

As a side note, it was pretty remarkable how open the Blazers players were in being critical of their team's coaching decisions.
Portland seems like with a team with its head screwed on well.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I noticed that as well. They are hedging the screens hard and forcing Curry/Klay to make a tough pass to the roll man. It's led to some easy buckets for Looney, but they've gotten some turnovers from it and they aren't getting killed from three.

With Durant out, GS needs buckets from someone besides Curry and Klay. Lillard didn't even play well, but they've gotten good offense from their role players.
Agreed. Truth be told, Portland's bench/rotation players are why they have made it this far. Hood, Kanter, Collins, Curry and Turner (probably their most underrated two way player) have all been huge for them.

Portland seems like with a team with its head screwed on well.
Olshey is a great GM (Kanter and Hood were steals for him and the Turner deal is looking better now) and I love Stotts as a coach. That said, I was surprised how open his players were in talking about his reluctance to abandon dropping.
 

HomeRunBaker

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So the Blazers and Evan Turner in particular talked openly how Stotts preference to drop during screens was killing them against Curry/Thompson. Tonight they aren't dropping and this is the result thus far.
This seems like it could be a simple halftime adjustment for the Warriors......their real problem is how to prevent Lillard and CJ from dictating anything they wish to do offensively for the Blazers either scoring or making game easy for their role players. Blazers are projecting to put up 130 in this game.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This seems like it could be a simple halftime adjustment for the Warriors......their real problem is how to prevent Lillard and CJ from dictating anything they wish to do offensively for the Blazers either scoring or making game easy for their role players. Blazers are projecting to put up 130 in this game.
Curry the elder has already adjusted. They are taking away the three so he is going to the rim. Btw, this is the problem with Klay Thompson. He is obviously an excellent scorer but when he is required to create his own looks, he starts to resemble a more average shooter. This is where the Warriors miss Durant.
 

dhellers

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Agreed. Truth be told, Portland's bench/rotation players are why they have made it this far. Hood, Kanter, Collins, Curry and Turner (probably their most underrated two way player) have all been huge for them.



Olshey is a great GM (Kanter and Hood were steals for him and the Turner deal is looking better now) and I love Stotts as a coach. That said, I was surprised how open his players were in talking about his reluctance to abandon dropping.
I recollect reading a few months ago about Lillard dismissing the idea of forming super teams, that his goal was to make it happen in Portland. Which suggests a patience and discipline conducive to communication that doubles as commitment to adjust as needed
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I recollect reading a few months ago about Lillard dismissing the idea of forming super teams, that his goal was to make it happen in Portland. Which suggests a patience and discipline conducive to communication that doubles as commitment to adjust as needed
Lillard is almost universally respected - current and fomer teammates love the guy. Were he playing elsewhere, he would be a much bigger star. I am glad he is in Portland though.

And to clarify, Olshey gets some well deserved grief for the Turner contract but the fact is that the Blazers are one of those teams who need to pay up to attract any talent to play in a nice city that is "off the map". And truth be told, Turner has done a great job in the role of a guy whose contribution doesn't show up in the box score.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Also, the Warriors are trapping Lillard and McCollum now and forcing the ball to the other players where their help defense has been great this quarter. On the other end, its all splash as the Blazers are scrambling on defense.