The 2023 Injury Thread
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
Yes, Jay Payton old (so old, I couldn't even remember his name, just his face and that worn-out joke)Jay Payton old?
Same! My brain was telling me that it was Chris Young and I knew that was wrong. Jay Payton, Nomar’s teammate at Georgia Tech (or are my brain’s wires crossing again).
I asked in the mL thread… but who will get bumped from starting? He’s slotted in to Paxton’s next time up. I doubt it’s him.
Crawford seems the most likely candidate. They've already started talking about him nearing his limit. My guess is Houck starts Monday and pushes Paxton (and by default Sale and Bello) back a day.
Next day off is 8/31. I'm guessing that 1st time through they use 6 and get everyone extra rest, then see where they are. If we rewind the tape, Pivetta had been knocked back to the pen. I'm only writing it down in pencil, but I think he has to be the leading candidate right now.
EDIT: @Red(s)Hawks view is solid as well.
Good question. They don't have a day off until August 31st, so it is conceivable they go with a 6 man rotation until then, or at least bump everyone back a day to facilitate Houck's return next week. He likely won't be going 6+ yet, after throwing 60 day I would expect him to be around 75 or so in his first start.
Yes, concerning the other starters it looks like Houck's return almost acts like an off day during this long stretch of games in that everyone's pushed back a day.
Edit...Or what the two posts above mine stated.
Pivetta somehow is looking better after he comes in after a starter. Likely all just "noise" and SSS stuff and he was just pitching to one of his notorious Pedro-esque hot streaks and now he's looking closer to True Pivetta, which is fine as a "no. 5" but since we have talent up and down, I'm hoping we see something like this:
Bello
Paxton
Sale with Whitlock
Crawford (for 2,3 innings) Pivetta for 4,5 innings
Houck with Murphy
obviously being flexible with that and ramping up Sale's and Houck's innings, as the ideal playoff (Jim Mora jpeg) rotation would be Sale, Bello, Paxton, Houck.
Damnit... if they can just GET THERE its IMO one of the best pitching staffs top to bottom
Bello
Paxton
Sale with Whitlock
Crawford (for 2,3 innings) Pivetta for 4,5 innings
Houck with Murphy
obviously being flexible with that and ramping up Sale's and Houck's innings, as the ideal playoff (Jim Mora jpeg) rotation would be Sale, Bello, Paxton, Houck.
Damnit... if they can just GET THERE its IMO one of the best pitching staffs top to bottom
I would prefer this as well. Pivetta just works better in relief this year.
After 18 months of this shit... Please let it happen. I won't complain if they don't win. I just want to see our actual team.
I really don't understand why they took away Pivetta's opener. It was working, why mess with it?
On paper it really didn't though. You're taking a good lefty out of the later innings.
But reality... on paper.... they don't quite ever line up nicely.
But I suspect it's more likely just noise.... we witnessed a 6 week stretch of Pivetta when he's almost as good as classic Pedro.... and then he turns into Nick Pivetta again. They just so happen to align when he was moved around. But I still think I'd stick with the idea of starting Crawford for 2-3 innings and then going with Nick for 4-5
I think a lot of it is they only have 2 lefties in the bullpen now (Bernardino & Murphy), & the opener really makes by far the most sense if it's a lefty. I think they should probably still go for it, though.
They had more lefties and more relievers in general. When they had only three starters, that meant 10 guys in the pen at any given time. Some of those were optionable/fungible guys who were easily replaced when burned. Now with a full (more than full when Houck returns) complement of starters, those optionable/fungible guys aren't there anymore. I think that makes them less inclined to burn a short reliever as an opener.
Murphy could potentially serve as an opener for Pivetta & still be available for a couple innings on someone else's turn. Who knows if they still plan on using Pivetta in a starter or starter adjacent role with everyone back, though.
If Whitlock is going to be a reliever and Crawford has some kind of an innings limit, the fifth starter/bulk guy kinda falls to Pivetta by default. And at least for a couple more turns, they can't necessarily count on Houck and Sale to give them a full starter's load even if they're pitching well, so I think they need to have Murphy and/or Whitlock and/or Crawford ready to back them up.
I'm okay with Pivetta starting games. Since he became more or less a full time bulk guy/starter (6/28), these are his outings:
3.1 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 2 R
4.0 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 R
5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 R
6.0 IP, 0 H, 2 BB, 0 R
1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 R
5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 0 R
7.1 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 R
4.0 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 R
5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 R
4.1 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 R
Third from last was a bulk role after an opener. That seems to fit right in with the three starts that surround it. And with three guys who could handle multiple innings in the pen to back him up, I think you tell him to not hold anything back. They don't necessarily need him to pace himself to try to go 6+ just because he's a "starter."
and Mondesí has been shut down again...
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1691917534285467906
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1691917534285467906
Dude should probably start thinking about his post-baseball life…like really soon.
Another reminder that, even though various athlete surgeries have become "routine" in a sense, there are still no guarantees.
I'm more concerned with the lefthandedness of lineups against him & to a lesser extent he seems to come from a better place mentally out of the bullpen (as evidenced by the fact that he continued to come from the bullpen when he started which indicates to me that there is probably some mental component to it).
Lefties have a .838 OPS against Pivetta this, while righties only have a .602.
Of course Murphy has reverse splits this season, though, so not sure he would do a great job motivating the opponent to start righties, so maybe Bernardino is the answer.
Wasn't part of the motivation for their opponents to start RHH based in the Sox having not just Bernardino or Jacques opening, but having some or all of Murphy, Walter, Bleier, Sherriff, and whoever wasn't opening of Bernardino/Jacques available instead of Pivetta? It's not like Cora announced in advance that it would be Pivetta doing the bulk work (though it generally followed a schedule). And even if Pivetta did enter the game, all those lefties still lay in wait behind him so pinch hitting too early would handcuff the team late.
I think the decision to just start Pivetta three of the last four turns through the rotation has a lot to do with the diminishing number of lefties in the pen. There's just nothing to gain with an opener.
Sure, I started this conversation saying something similar.
I just think the benefits outweigh the downside. But it's close now whereas it wasn't before.
I guess I still have painful memories of starter Pivetta.
We can blame timing, or whatever we want, buuuuuut...
In 56.1 innings as a starter this year, Pivetta has a 5.88 ERA.
In 45 innings as a reliever this year, Pivetta has a 2.40 ERA.
He'll only be 28 for the 2024 season. Somebody will give him a chance on a rehab contract.
Hopefully for his sake, he does some really good conditioning and strength training to shore up some weak spots physically. His injuries have become so chronic, that he’s probably not going to get too many more chances.
His upside is so intriguing though that I’m sure the well hasn’t run dry yet, but he probably needs to be on the field for a good chunk of 2024 whether it’s in the majors or minors to prove himself.
The only injury he's had that's chronic is this knee injury. Everything else has been something different. Not sure how you "shore up some weak spots physically" when your list of injuries over a five year period looks like this:
Right shoulder impingement (unknown cause)
Groin strain (running the bases)
Left shoulder subluxation (injured diving for a ball)
Right oblique strain (swinging a bat)
Left hamstring strain (charging a ground ball)
Left oblique strain (unknown cause)
Torn ACL (trying to steal a base)
Yeah maybe he just can’t do anything about it when you lay it all out there. Not sure. It sucks regardless…he’s got some really good raw talent.
To preface... what do I know?
But I see some patterns. Two oblique strains. Two leg muscle strains (groin, hamstring). That's four muscle-related injuries.
Why should we care at this point? We got Urias hitting grand slams in the toilet; this guy is probably done. They paid him $3M for 2023, but that money is gone. Cut bait.
I assume this is about Mondesi. If they put him out in the cold with six weeks left in the season for no other reason than he isn't going to contribute to the team anyway, it would be a bad look. They're not losing anything by letting him continue to rehab and try to get back into playing shape under their watch. It is a sunk cost but there's still a benefit to be had keeping him around. Maybe it endears them to him enough that he takes a minor league deal for next year and he remains a potential asset for the future. Or maybe another player somewhere notices they did right by Mondesi and signs with the Sox instead of somewhere else. Could be just the opposite if they cut him loose now, and for what? To free up a locker at Jet Blue in August? Why?
Not sure there is any single place to put this, but since one of the more annoying subjects we've tossed around this season has been the performance of the guys we didn't re-sign, it might be worth tracking them. Just today JD Martinez went on the IL for nagging groin pain, slowing down his resurgent season. Currently, Nathan Eovaldi is on the IL and hasn't pitched in five weeks, though hopefully (for his sake, not ours) he could be back soon. Michael Wacha is the third guy, and he missed two months due to shoulder fatigue before recently returning. All three have been terrific, and only JD's case did the Sox grab a like-kind replacement/slight upgrade in Justin Turner. Kluber has been a zero, or maybe worse than zero, while the rotation looks more like it's shaping up for 2024 than this year, when it could have used Nate and Wacha.
Point is, the Sox made calculating decisions on bringing back all three, with some hesitation due to the injury risk, and well, they were right about the injury risk anyway. I don't know if it's possible to assemble a top starting rotation that comes with low injury risk, and sure, we would be better with Eo and Wacha this year, but I can understand the reluctance to have them around past 2023. A 2024 rotation built around Bello, Crawford, a top-level import (Yamamoto!), and the healthiest among Houck, Pivetta, Sale and Whitlock could be a lot more dependable than a version that has large outlays to Eovaldi and Wacha.
Point is, the Sox made calculating decisions on bringing back all three, with some hesitation due to the injury risk, and well, they were right about the injury risk anyway. I don't know if it's possible to assemble a top starting rotation that comes with low injury risk, and sure, we would be better with Eo and Wacha this year, but I can understand the reluctance to have them around past 2023. A 2024 rotation built around Bello, Crawford, a top-level import (Yamamoto!), and the healthiest among Houck, Pivetta, Sale and Whitlock could be a lot more dependable than a version that has large outlays to Eovaldi and Wacha.
They're saying "tightness in his right hamstring" for now. I really hope it's nothing serious.
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1694547639050637587?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1694547639050637587?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
I remember that quote, but I don't remember who said it... I assume Bloom?
