The 2022 Rotation

[Rasputin]

To distract myself from all the jesusgoddamnwhatthefuck of the past week or so, I've been pondering the future. Green energy, no covid, and most importantly, the 2022 rotation.

Is it me or is it completely obvious that it's Sale, Eovaldi, Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta in some order?

If Rodriguez comes back on a short contract, maybe that changes, but I think he's going to be looking at more of a payday than I'm willing to give him.

Add in a few fungible guys we can stock at Worcester for depth and I think we're looking at a pretty decent rotation. Houck and Whitlock are going to have a high degree of variance and could tank, but they could just as easily be really good.

And now back to wondering if we can an entire team out to get so hammered, and laid so hard that they forget what baseball even is for a couple days.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I think those are the five, but I also think that it isn't unlikely that ERod comes back on a one year deal to re-establish his value. I'd be good with that. Add in Seabold for more depth, and you have the makings of a very good rotation.

 

[TimScribble]

Kutter Crawford is another possible name to keep an eye on. Wouldn’t expect him to start the season on the major league roster, but could potentially be the first one up from AAA, according to where Seabold starts.

 

[Sox Puppet]

That seems reasonable. Anything to get the Perez and Richards dumpster fires out of the rotation would almost certainly be a positive, in my opinion.

My one thought about Whitlock is that he's sneakily been the best reliever in our bullpen -- better, even, than Barnes and Ottavino -- so we might be looking at a Papelbon 2.0 situation. I seem to remember that it was always assumed Pap would slide into the rotation at some point, but the Sox decided he was just too valuable in the closer role. (Granted, Whitlock isn't the closer, but he's probably been almost just as valuable in high leverage situations).

 

[johnnywayback]

I think your Papelbon analogy is apt, but I think the guy it applies to is Houck. I just can't see him surviving a third trip through a lineup unless he can develop a quality third pitch, and he's such a good multi-inning relief ace with the two he's got, I think they've got to be tempted to just let him do that.

 

[cantor44]

I feel like the best thing about that doubleheader was a glimpse into a brighter future, with just the folks you name - Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock - all distinguishing themselves with stellar pitching against an excellent offense.

I think they will be in the rotation next year. But yeah, a sixth starter has to be secured as well, what with the inevitably of injuries, etc. Maybe that's ERod, who also looked good his last start.

I feel like, health provided, the Sox may well have an excellent starting rotation next year ...

 

[E5 Yaz]

I think your Papelbon analogy is apt, but I think the guy it applies to is Houck. I just can't see him surviving a third trip through a lineup ...

The number of pitchers these days who do that is shrinking by the season.

 

[grimshaw]

I'd rather see Whitlock in the fireman roll and either a trade target or FA (or Seabold).
The Sox have been incredibly lucky with injuries this season, so hopefully keep building more depth.

 

[scottyno]

Would love to see Erod back on a one year deal, especially if he keeps pitching like he has for the last month+. After 2022 both Eovaldi and potentially Sale will be free agents, so it would be nice to keep Erod in the fold until then at least to give them a full year to decide what the staff beyond 2022 is going to look like.

 

[Apisith]

ERod should get a QO which he will most likely accept. Gausman was better last year yet took the QO.

I also wonder whether we’ll buyout Richards because if yes, doesn’t the buyout fall into this year? And that would push us over the line, no? If the buyout goes next year’s payroll then yeah, he won’t be back.

Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta and Seabold. 7 should be enough. The overall payroll will be similar to this year as Richards’ is given to ERod.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

ERod should get a QO which he will most likely accept. Gausman was better last year yet took the QO.

I also wonder whether we’ll buyout Richards because if yes, doesn’t the buyout fall into this year? And that would push us over the line, no? If the buyout goes next year’s payroll then yeah, he won’t be back.

Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta and Seabold. 7 should be enough. The overall payroll will be similar to this year as Richards’ is given to ERod.

QO was $18.9 million this year. Would you give that to EdRo? I wouldn’t unless his next 8 starts are much better than the previous eight.

Richards is a team option for 2022, so no Buyout needed

 

[Apisith]

QO was $18.9 million this year. Would you give that to EdRo? I wouldn’t unless his next 8 starts are much better than the previous eight.

Richards is a team option for 2022, so no Buyout needed

ERod’s xERA is 3.61. His FIP is 3.38, xFIP is 3.30. He’s an elite SP based on rate stats.

I would 100% give him a QO. I worry about the general trend of decreasing velocity but that’s why a QO is perfect. I wouldn’t risk a 4 or 5-year deal based on these metrics even if they’re elite because I worry about him losing effectiveness completely if his velocity drops down a further tick or two.

Richards’ buyout if we decline the team option is $1.5m. I assume that goes into next year’s payroll? How does the AAV work with buyouts?

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I wouldn’t give EdRo the QO which will likely be $20 million or more if he continues to pitch like recently.

regarding the buyout year, everything I can find says buyouts don’t count to either year, but I wouldn’t bet my house on that being accurate.

 

[deythur]

ERod’s xERA is 3.61. His FIP is 3.38, xFIP is 3.30. He’s an elite SP based on rate stats.

I would 100% give him a QO. I worry about the general trend of decreasing velocity but that’s why a QO is perfect. I wouldn’t risk a 4 or 5-year deal based on these metrics even if they’re elite because I worry about him losing effectiveness completely if his velocity drops down a further tick or two.

Richards’ buyout if we decline the team option is $1.5m. I assume that goes into next year’s payroll? How does the AAV work with buyouts?

My understanding on buyouts is that the buyout amount is pro-rated over the guaranteed years of the contract being bought out. Since Richards was on a 1 year deal that would mean the AAV for this year would jump to 10mil.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

ERod’s xERA is 3.61. His FIP is 3.38, xFIP is 3.30. He’s an elite SP based on rate stats.

I would 100% give him a QO. I worry about the general trend of decreasing velocity but that’s why a QO is perfect. I wouldn’t risk a 4 or 5-year deal based on these metrics even if they’re elite because I worry about him losing effectiveness completely if his velocity drops down a further tick or two.

Richards’ buyout if we decline the team option is $1.5m. I assume that goes into next year’s payroll? How does the AAV work with buyouts?

The buyout is already figured into this year's payroll as far as luxury tax implications. His luxury tax hit is $10M while his actually salary is only $8.5M. If they were to pick up his option (for strange and unknowable reasons), his tax hit for both 2021 and 2022 would adjust to $9.25M (2/18.5).

 

[Apisith]

The buyout is already figured into this year's payroll as far as luxury tax implications. His luxury tax hit is $10M while his actually salary is only $8.5M. If they were to pick up his option (for strange and unknowable reasons), his tax hit for both 2021 and 2022 would adjust to $9.25M (2/18.5).

That's great. That means there's no chance we're picking up Richards' option.

In 2016, we had 8 guys who started 5 or more games. In 2017, the same. Likewise in 2018. We've only used 6 starters this year. Sale will be #7, and hopefully we see Seabold as well.

Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta and Seabold are a good 7. Throwing in an innings limit for Houck and Whitlock, we'll probably need 9 for next year. Crawford might be #8.