The 2018 NBA Draft

CSteinhardt

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Memphis' pick is a sunk cost from their perspective; if they value it more because it was once their own, they are stupid and we should exploit them. But I doubt they do.
If they are considering tanking, it should be more valuable because they can influence its value much more directly than another team's projected high pick. In other words, it is worth more to them than it is to us; we were very lucky that the Nets didn't put some value on being a 35 win team instead of worse in seasons when they didn't own their own pick.
 

finnVT

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Jul 12, 2002
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I would think that Memphis would and probably should place more value on their own pick because they have some control over where it ends up. Makes it a whole lot easier to start their own “Process “ if they have their pick. Without the pick they might as well try adding to Gasol/Conley and see if they can make a run at the 8 seed or something.
I think they should value it more, but not for this reason. Since it has so many protections, they don't know what year it'll end up conveying. Which means that right now, they can't trade their 1st round pick for any year in the foreseeable future, which really hamstrings them in making other deals. Re-acquiring it gives them much more flexibility to make other moves to improve their team.
 

Manzivino

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I think they should value it more, but not for this reason. Since it has so many protections, they don't know what year it'll end up conveying. Which means that right now, they can't trade their 1st round pick for any year in the foreseeable future, which really hamstrings them in making other deals. Re-acquiring it gives them much more flexibility to make other moves to improve their team.
Technically they can trade their pick starting in 2021 conditionally as "conveying two years after conveying a first round pick to the Celtics", but the point stands.
 

nighthob

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Now, Memphis at #4 could be a different story since their pick that we own is more valuable to them than to anyone else but that is countered by them having no use for Rozier.
I sort of think that the only trade that could possibly work is one where Atlanta takes on Parsons as the price of getting Rozier so that Boston can send the Sacramento and future Memphis pick back.

Memphis' pick is a sunk cost from their perspective; if they value it more because it was once their own, they are stupid and we should exploit them. But I doubt they do.
This happens all the time, and it's not stupid per se (the pick Boston got from the T'wolves for eating Wally Szerbiak's contract was a key part of the package to acquire Garnett), and not simply because it allows a team to tank without worry.

The way the trade rules work Memphis is hamstrung because of the first they owe the Celtics (you can't trade away consecutive future firsts, which makes Memphis #1s very unappealing in trade since the earliest any pick could convey is two years after the Boston one). So getting their own #1 back makes life easier on them in a myriad of ways.

It's not a perfect example, but last year the Celtics traded down two slots in a draft and got back an almost guaranteed future lottery pick for their trouble. I can't think of any examples of a team trading out of the lottery solely for future draft considerations.
If Boston had a lottery pick to swap, that might work. Memphis is open to trading down/out, but the price is freeing them of Chandler Parsons' ruinous contract and a lottery pick. That's the stumbling block.
 

moondog80

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Can you name one example of a top 5 pick being traded before/during the draft for a return that was primarily future picks? Future picks are traded all the time but generally not for current top 5 draft picks unless I'm just blanking on some obvious comparable deals.

Closest I can come up with is 2004 when the Bulls traded the #7 pick (Luol Deng) to Phoenix for a future 1st.

EDIT: I have that reversed. It was Phoenix who traded the pick to Chicago.
 
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MillarTime

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The Philadelphia 76ers had internal discussions about packaging the No. 10 and 26 picks, along with former No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz, to move into the top five, league sources told The Athletic. The target was Porter during these discussions. However, that thinking dampened with Porter’s back remaining a major question mark. If JJ Redick leaves in free agency, Fultz is the favorite to start at shooting guard.
https://theathletic.com/402087/2018/06/21/scotto-2018-nba-mock-draft-final-edition-as-trade-talks-continue-on-draft-day/

If true, this gives some insight into the Sixers' confidence in Fultz going forward. Woof.
 

bakahump

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Isnt asset acquisition what Ainge has done to rebuild the Celts (going back to Bringing in Garnett)?

You need bullets in a firefight.

I get that at some point the current opportunity is better then Future opportunity. For instance I think many of you are right in that you dont trade a Top3 (or maybe 5) in a deep draft for "Quantity". But there is a tipping point. Maybe the Grizz, Clippers, Sac Pick that some team (could) get ends up being what seals the deal to allow that team to eventually acquire Brow. So then the Math becomes would you trade the 5th pick in this draft for a 28 yo Anthony Davis?

(Davis is used as a white whale example).
 

HomeRunBaker

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There are a few caveats that none of us know anything about, such as Porter's medicals, Mitchell Robinson (and his promise), and teams trading up to select one particular player so I'm not necessarily "mocking" this draft based on team selection only posting my draft order without factoring in team needs, system or any of those other variables. Many picks I see as interchangeable based on system or where the team drafting is today, like Trae Young vs Collin Sexton or JJJ vs Wendell, and I will note them as such. Yes, I like some guys much more than the mocks or general public and aren't as high as some who I feel are overhyped based on what I project them to be so here goes...…..

1. Marvin Bagley
2. Mo Bamba
3. DeAndre Ayton
4. Kevin Knox (want to have him at 3 so bad here, it's close)
5a. Wendell Carter
5b. Jaren Jackson
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (made for todays NBA)
8. Mikal Bridges
9a. Trae Young
9b. Collin Sexton
11. Luka Doncic
12. Michael Porter (I'd need clean meds to go higher and the new hip injury doesn't help me here)

My 1/2 have been rock solid for awhile with a gap to 3 but not an enormous one. I've been an Ayton guy forever but his stiffness and motor give me pause as to his ceiling. After 12 though is where I see the most significant dropoff.


13. Troy Brown (I'd have loved to find a way to get him into my top-12 but like Knox I can't do it, he's my Dejounte of two years ago and a steal this summer)
14. Kevin Huerter (this is where you begin looking at role players with specific elite skills along with fliers and this kid can hold his own more than just shooting)
15. Jerome Robinson
16. Zhaire Smith
17. Josh Okogie
18. Lonnie Walker
19. Keita Bates-Diop (he could have immediate 2nd unit impact on the right team)
20. Miles Bridges
21. Robert Williams (where would you pick Stromile Swift?)
22. Jalen Brunson
23. Aaron Holiday (love how he gets to his spot with the ball)
24. Chandler Hutchison (so smooth and a late bloomer)
25. Anfernee Simons
* 26. Jarred Vanderbilt (if i'm a contender looking for a Jordan Bell/Powe-type scrapper he can contribute to that type of team in a specific role)

I have about 20 guys without much separation from 26-45 but I'm certainly not a fan of Shamet, Duval, Trent, or Okobo of that grouping. The Grayson Allens, DiVincenzo's, Evans, and Wagner are probably the best of that next bunch.
 

cheech13

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My draft predictions: The Phoenix Suns will draft Ayton for some reason, the Kings will do something stupid because they're stupid, and then total chaos ensues. Multiple trades will be made. The smart GMs pounce on all the bad franchises drafting in the top 10 and no one's mock looks right after #4.
 

Saints Rest

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My draft predictions: The Phoenix Suns will draft Ayton for some reason, the Kings will do something stupid because they're stupid, and then total chaos ensues. Multiple trades will be made. The smart GMs pounce on all the bad franchises drafting in the top 10 and no one's mock looks right after #4.
And that's when/where Ainge would make a move. I don't think he makes any trade until that pick is on the clock as he will need more certainty as to what he is getting.
 

tbrown_01923

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@HomeRunBaker - Doncic at #11 is insanely off-piste. You're either going to look really clever or really stupid a few years from now.
He hasn't been bullish on Doncic for quite some while. It raises interesting questions 1. Is he right (in his projection of LD) and 2. what will the draft hold (is there some GM more bullish on LD).

I guess one of the more interesting drafts in some time because of the immense amount of talent on the table.
 

TripleOT

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I'm with HRB on Bagley. I'm also not fully sold on Doncic, and love Bamba's upside on offense, figuring he's going to be amazing at the defensive end. If the Cs could get Bagley, Bamba, or even Carter, I'm emptying out the drawer of draft assets, with less for Carter. With JT, JB, and Young Big, the Cs won't need franchise draftees for a half decade. That Sacto pick might be a 7 in a weak draft, and if Memphis picks a star, their pick might not be great either.

Unfortunately, the Cs probably can't trick a team with these picks. Maybe the Sacto pick, the Mem pick, and two future first to Memphis?
 

cheech13

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With the caveat that these guys are all extremely young and likely to improve on their weaknesses with good coaching, I couldn't fathom spending a top three pick on Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley or Mo Bamba. Anyone who watched the playoffs this year should have realized that big men that don't knock down threes or defend multiple positions at a high level are mostly worthless and yet this year's "best" prospects have huge question marks when it comes to those skills.

I'm all in Doncic, and barring that I'm looking into the Jackson, Carter, Bridges, Gilgeous-Alexander group.
 

southshoresoxfan

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My draft predictions: The Phoenix Suns will draft Ayton for some reason, the Kings will do something stupid because they're stupid, and then total chaos ensues. Multiple trades will be made. The smart GMs pounce on all the bad franchises drafting in the top 10 and no one's mock looks right after #4.
I’m here for the chaos. And if Bamba gets by 3 I think Danny’s coming from the clouds.
 

HomeRunBaker

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With the caveat that these guys are all extremely young and likely to improve on their weaknesses with good coaching, I couldn't fathom spending a top three pick on Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley or Mo Bamba. Anyone who watched the playoffs this year should have realized that big men that don't knock down threes or defend multiple positions at a high level are mostly worthless and yet this year's "best" prospects have huge question marks when it comes to those skills.

I'm all in Doncic, and barring that I'm looking into the Jackson, Carter, Bridges, Gilgeous-Alexander group.
Bagley and Bamba DO project to knock down plenty of three's and defend multiple positions well on switches......these are two of their best traits moving forward! Neither began working on them until 12 months ago and showed good mechanics AND results over the second half of their collegiate season.


@HomeRunBaker - Doncic at #11 is insanely off-piste. You're either going to look really clever or really stupid a few years from now.
If you re-draft in 5 years there is a good chance that Doncic would go higher. I think he'll be a solid player but one with limited upside while those I have above him have a much higher ceiling so they have greater value to me today. I'm sure some I have above Doncic will not be as good of an NBA player. Him being 11th on my board is largely based on how I don't place a premium on complementary players which I feel is what Doncic will be. I mean the history of Euro guards/wings is not exactly in his favor. People really overvalue the competition they play against simply because they are older and currently better than the collegiate crop.
 
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AimingForYoko

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I'm not expecting anything but I'll be pleasantly surprised if we cash in everything (not named JB) to move up. DA's hot so if they have a target in mind, I say grab him. I don't care about next year's draft nor do I care too much about Terry or MaMo or whatever flotsam we'd give up.
 
If you re-draft in 5 years there is a good chance that Doncic would go higher. I think he'll be a solid player but one with limited upside while those I have above him have a much higher ceiling so they have greater value to me today. I'm sure some I have above Doncic will not be as good of an NBA player. Him being 11th on my board is largely based on how I don't place a premium on complementary players which I feel is what Doncic will be. I mean the history of Euro guards/wings is not exactly in his favor. People really overvalue the competition they play against simply because they are older and currently better than the collegiate crop.
I know you've talked about Doncic in these forums before, but I'm confused by the "limited upside" argument when you consider he turned 19 in February - he's 15 months younger than Bamba, for example. His physical gifts have yet to mature, no?
 

HomeRunBaker

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I know you've talked about Doncic in these forums before, but I'm confused by the "limited upside" argument when you consider he turned 19 in February - he's 15 months younger than Bamba, for example. His physical gifts have yet to mature, no?
Age isn't the predominant trait in determining a players upside. His physical skills ARE mature as are his ball skills unlike many of those players in this draft including the ones who are older. Aside from higher usage and more shot attempts, many of them poor due to inability to create separation against the shot clock, I didn't feel as though Doncic improved a whole lot last winter from his previous season....his skillset is pretty much the same. When you look at the growth for Bagley and Bamba (and others) who just began shooting face up jumpers from outside 15 feet this year once they continue to expand their games.....this is where the higher ceilings from where they are today come into play. It isn't about age....it is about learned skills development.
 

Big John

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I want to know what the player's impact is on winning. Did the team win, say, 10 more games than it did the previous year? Does he make the players around him better, or do we have just one more talented guy out to get his and competing with other talented young guys for the same ball? At the college level I'm looking for a player who turns a program around, or at least makes a winning program win even more. "Upside" is a subjective measure, but wins and losses usually don't lie.
 

southshoresoxfan

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I want to know what the player's impact is on winning. Did the team win, say, 10 more games than it did the previous year? Does he make the players around him better, or do we have just one more talented guy out to get his and competing with other talented young guys for the same ball? At the college level I'm looking for a player who turns a program around, or at least makes a winning program win even more. "Upside" is a subjective measure, but wins and losses usually don't lie.
Says the guy who wants to trade Rozier and Kings pick for Lonzo Ball?
 

HomeRunBaker

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I want to know what the player's impact is on winning. Did the team win, say, 10 more games than it did the previous year? Does he make the players around him better, or do we have just one more talented guy out to get his and competing with other talented young guys for the same ball? At the college level I'm looking for a player who turns a program around, or at least makes a winning program win even more. "Upside" is a subjective measure, but wins and losses usually don't lie.
The college rules make the game play far differently from the NBA. It's why Ben Simmons didn't impact wins but Carmelo Anthony did. It's why the Buffalo Bulls made Ayton invisible in the tournament and why Adam Morrison's athletic and defensive deficiencies were hidden. The NBA is about individual skills and how that plays out on the floor with 4 teammates in todays game now more than ever......we get to see many of these skills in bits and pieces at the college, such as Simmons in the open floor at LSU, but it doesn't necessarily always show in overall team success.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The college rules make the game play far differently from the NBA. It's why Ben Simmons didn't impact wins but Carmelo Anthony did. It's why the Buffalo Bulls made Ayton invisible in the tournament and why Adam Morrison's athletic and defensive deficiencies were hidden. The NBA is about individual skills and how that plays out on the floor with 4 teammates in todays game now more than ever.
The college game is heavily impacted by guard play and they don't use their bigs efficiently.
 

Big John

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Says the guy who wants to trade Rozier and Kings pick for Lonzo Ball?
You completely misconstrued that post. Someone was saying that the Lakers would have no trouble moving Ball. I responded that the Spurs didn't want him (and stated the reasons why) and proposed two other hypothetical trades that no one would make, even though Ball was a #2 pick.

Ball was a drafting mistake by a neophyte GM who should have known better. His trade value is higher than Fultz' value, but that's not saying much.

I don't know what I would have done in 2016. Winning isn't the only factor-- there's always the exceptional player on an otherwise bad team-- but for me it's pretty important.
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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Under the premise that bigs take longer to develop, especially on D, I'm good with that from the perspective of getting their pick. Feed minutes to Bagley and Giles.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The Grizz traded us their pick confirmed
Morris, Rozier and Sac pick for Parsons and 4. Who else needs to be included to make the numbers work? Where do I sign up?

Assuming Wallace is under the directive to dump the final 2-years of Parsons what better offer will be have on the table?
 

cheech13

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I think Bagley wins ROY and develops into a 25/11 guy
Even if you're a believer in Bagley's athleticism, work ethic and upside, do you really think that the Kings are the team to unlock his defensive and shooting potential? I'm not buying that. But even further than that, they think he's going to form a one-two punch with Giles? The guy that hasn't seen a basketball court in 1.5 years? It just reeks on the kind of backward decision making that has plagued the Kings over the past decade.

Also, does this mean the Kings have given up on building their own version of the Warriors? Whither Buddy Hield?
 

JCizzle

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I haven't really followed this guy's development, but didn't he have a reputation as a defensive stud?

 

Cesar Crespo

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Even if you're a believer in Bagley's athleticism, work ethic and upside, do you really think that the Kings are the team to unlock his defensive and shooting potential? I'm not buying that. But even further than that, they think he's going to form a one-two punch with Giles? The guy that hasn't seen a basketball court in 1.5 years? It just reeks on the kind of backward decision making that has plagued the Kings over the past decade.

Also, does this mean the Kings have given up on building their own version of the Warriors? Whither Buddy Hield?

Do you really think the Kings are the team to unlock anything on anyone?
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Per Kevin O’Connor’s column today:

If the Kings do pass on Doncic and select Bagley or Porter, Hawks general manager Travis Schlenk’s phone will be buzzing. Atlanta owns the no. 3 pick, and the Mavericks, Magic, Bulls, Knicks, and Clippers have all expressed interest in moving up to select Doncic (or possibly Texas center Mo Bamba), according to league sources. All five of those teams, plus the Nuggets, have also been pursuing the no. 4 pick, per Draft Express’s Jonathan Givony. Boston, who’s been seen as a dark horse to trade up, isn’t considered a serious suitor for either pick at this time.
I assume that means Ainge is currently scheming to get both #3 and #4 right now.
 

ehaz

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For the Bagley fans, how do you see him fitting in the NBA position wise? He was a bad defender in college and couldn't really block much. Ayton was a poor defender as well, but at least you see the body and can project the shot blocking eventually coming around... His shot doesn't look good so I don't really see him playing the 4 or knocking down a lot of threes despite the tiny sample size of success he had at Duke.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I haven't really followed this guy's development, but didn't he have a reputation as a defensive stud?

I loved him coming in as a switchable C. His offensive efficiency has taken a hit with more volume, but that was never going to be his calling card. Wish he had flashed more block/steal ability to this point.

Haven't watched a ton of the Kings so I can't really speak to his current status/how he has translated with much certainty, but it wouldn't surprise me if he hasn't been deployed in the most optimal way so far.
 

cheech13

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Hawks and Dallas talking pick swap. Hawks may take Young at 5 which is kinda nuts.
Kevin O'Connor chimed in that Magic and Hawks are talking similar deal (Baze/#6 for #3). Most of the time we get excited about the draft or deadline and nothing happens but I'm really buying into the idea that tonight will be nuts. Too many restless teams out there.