The 2018 NBA Draft

DannyDarwinism

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Carter reminds me a lot of Horford. Barring injury he's going to have a 15 year career in this league, be loved by coaches, GMs, and teammates, and have the casual public asking "why does he get paid so much?".
Carter has been great since Bagley's been out. Put up a Horfordesque 18/9/6 with 3 blocks against Louisville last night. I don't know if it's a cause for concern for Bagley that Duke has played its best defensive ball with him out, but it's notable, especially since it fits the narrative for him on the defensive end.
 

tims4wins

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Carter has been great since Bagley's been out. Put up a Horfordesque 18/9/6 with 3 blocks against Louisville last night. I don't know if it's a cause for concern for Bagley that Duke has played its best defensive ball with him out, but it's notable, especially since it fits the narrative for him on the defensive end.
Yeah I was there last night. He was a beast.

55 points, 42 rebounds, 12 assists, and 12 blocks in the four games that Bagley has been out.
 

nighthob

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Carter has been great since Bagley's been out. Put up a Horfordesque 18/9/6 with 3 blocks against Louisville last night. I don't know if it's a cause for concern for Bagley that Duke has played its best defensive ball with him out, but it's notable, especially since it fits the narrative for him on the defensive end.
Yeah, Carter is rock solid. The ideal third star for a team as his game is so well rounded and he can basically do whatever you need him to to tip the scales (so long as you do have those two offensive options in front of him). Some team in the middle lottery is going to get a real bargain this year.
 

LondonSox

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Jaren Jackson has been the odd man out of the discussions here about the top half of the lottery, but he's gotta be top 7 at this point. Not quite Bamba protecting the rim, but he's close and he's a better perimeter defender. His shooting touch looks real- 44.6% from 3 on 2.6 attempts per game, and shooting 81% from the line. If he was just an elite rim protector who can also defend in space with a good shooting touch, he'd be good prospect, but he did this last night:


I did not know he could do that.
He's top 3 or 4 for me right now. I am mainly at the debating ayton vs him for best big

If you are the typical 25-win team in the high lottery I would agree. We are in a unique position to utilize a high lottery pick to fill a vital need on a championship caliber team and unless there is an enormous talent gap this is the way for Ainge to go. This is one of the reasons I did not want Fultz last year to be one of 5 guards in our rotation and lost with Kyrie here even before his breakdown.

.
I think that Ainge didn't want to have a true rookie point guard running a team wanting to contend this year. Tatum was ready to contribute right now esp expecting him to be off the bench.
The whole thing makes a lot of sense if he had any insight to kyrie.
 

jmm57

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What's been up with Jacksons minutes? He's below 20 most nights. Is it just foul trouble?
 

Bosox1528

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Is anyone starting to like this draft less and less?

I feel like we go through the same process every year where when these guys are coming out of high school or just starting college it's the best draft ever with 5 sure fire stars, and then when you watch them play you see the obvious flaws that 19 year olds have.

Ayton has bust written all over him in my opinion. First of all, he's a whole year older than the rest of his grade and should really be a sophomore, second of all, he has awful steal rates, which usually don't bode well for draft prospects. He's naturally talented offensively, but I feel like his makeup/BBIQ just screams bust.

Bagley is a tweener with no perimeter skills.

Don't know much about the rest of the guys, but I'm much more down on Ayton and Bagley than I was before
 

HomeRunBaker

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Is anyone starting to like this draft less and less?

I feel like we go through the same process every year where when these guys are coming out of high school or just starting college it's the best draft ever with 5 sure fire stars, and then when you watch them play you see the obvious flaws that 19 year olds have.

Ayton has bust written all over him in my opinion. First of all, he's a whole year older than the rest of his grade and should really be a sophomore, second of all, he has awful steal rates, which usually don't bode well for draft prospects. He's naturally talented offensively, but I feel like his makeup/BBIQ just screams bust.

Bagley is a tweener with no perimeter skills.

Don't know much about the rest of the guys, but I'm much more down on Ayton and Bagley than I was before
The top looks as legit as it did to start the year and is imo stacked like only a handful of others over the past 20 years. Doncic is still doing Doncic things, Bamba has cooled since he's been playing on one leg (or nine toes), and only the ESPN hype machine considered Trae Young a top top prospect early on. Then you've got Carter, Porter, Jackson and the Bridge Bros. it is definitely a Forward-heavy class which I'll agree is interesting if not somewhat concerning with the game becoming so guard-heavy.

Ayton's motor concerns me as well to some degree. He's dropped from my #1 to start the season but to suggest steal rates in a conference that is jacking up 3's while he's defending the paint is so last decade imo. The game has changed as has the value of certain advanced numbers.

As far as Bagley goes I question if you've ever seen him play to suggest he has "no perimeter skills" when facing the basket and putting the ball on the floor and defending guards on switches with his quick feet are two of his greatest strengths. He's increased his shooting range out to the 3-point line already having hit 45% at home and 36% overall. I'm not sure what's a tweener about him he's your prototypical 4 in the NBA.
 
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Kliq

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Every year the story is basically the same: At the start of the year there are a bunch of great prospects, and by the time the draft rolls around people are saying things like "You know, there are not a lot of franchise players in this draft; next year is going to be the really talented bunch."

I think the draft class has been better. Nobody has really dropped off or been exposed by the college game, like Skal Labissisere was, and I think the big story for me is Jaren Jackson Jr. turning into a potential Top Five pick.
 

bowiac

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I'm not a draftnik, but this still looks like a great draft to me, with Doncic leading the way.
 

slamminsammya

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Ah, the "familiarity breeds contempt" stage of the season has arrived. Come march madness we will see a renewed overly bullish attitude towards any player who has a good three game stretch. Natural vicissitudes of the basketball season.
 

JakeRae

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Every year the story is basically the same: At the start of the year there are a bunch of great prospects, and by the time the draft rolls around people are saying things like "You know, there are not a lot of franchise players in this draft; next year is going to be the really talented bunch."

I think the draft class has been better. Nobody has really dropped off or been exposed by the college game, like Skal Labissisere was, and I think the big story for me is Jaren Jackson Jr. turning into a potential Top Five pick.
There's a bit of that this year, but I think most people continue to believe this is a pretty amazing draft class. They should. It is.
 

nighthob

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Is anyone starting to like this draft less and less?
That's an annual event. You should have heard the smack people were talking in February of '96.

I feel like we go through the same process every year where when these guys are coming out of high school or just starting college it's the best draft ever with 5 sure fire stars, and then when you watch them play you see the obvious flaws that 19 year olds have.
Psssst. C'mere. I got a secret for ya. All 19 year olds are flawed players. Not even LeBron was LeBron at 19, and he's in the GOAT conversation.

Ayton has bust written all over him in my opinion. First of all, he's a whole year older than the rest of his grade and should really be a sophomore, second of all, he has awful steal rates, which usually don't bode well for draft prospects. He's naturally talented offensively, but I feel like his makeup/BBIQ just screams bust.
No, he's not going to bust. The college game is pretty center-unfriendly and he's still killing it. And given that he's not American being a few months older than the rest of the class isn't that big a deal. He came to the game later, but he's going to be fine.

The steal rate for centers isn't terribly predictive, especially given the prevalence of zone D at the NCAA level. Add in the rate at which even colleges jack up threes these days and it's the RebRates that are a lot more important. The biggest question with Ayton is will he land on a competently managed team that will develop him properly, like Dallas, or is he going to a clusterfuck like Atnalta.

Bagley is a tweener with no perimeter skills.
Did you actually read that article or just skim the opening paragraph? The writer maintained that Bagley was a defensive tweener, not a tweener forward. He didn't believe that Bagley could defend the PF spot competently and didn't block enough shots to be a center (honestly I suspect that blocked shots as such may not be as valued by pros as casual NBA fans, I have a sneaking suspicion that they set a higher value on deflections these days).

As a perimeter player on the offensive side, Bagley's going to make life tough on the new class of power 3s that have been playing the 4 in the pace & space era. He may not be Kevin Garnett on the defensive end but offensively he has range on the jumper and is as good a big man as you're going to see at taking guys off the dribble.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Michael Porter Jr WILL PLAY today vs Georgia at 3:30.

I wouldn't expect much from him as far as efficiency but we should see a few glimpses. Closest comp I can think of it Kyrie at Duke when he only played through mid-December then was a shell of himself in the post-season games while the raw talent was still evident but even he had a dozen early season games or so under his belt.
 

tims4wins

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Michael Porter Jr WILL PLAY today vs Georgia at 3:30.

I wouldn't expect much from him as far as efficiency but we should see a few glimpses. Closest comp I can think of it Kyrie at Duke when he only played through mid-December then was a shell of himself in the post-season games while the raw talent was still evident but even he had a dozen early season games or so under his belt.
Nitpick but Kyrie actually was pretty good in his first couple games back and great in the Sweet 16. In rounds 1 and 2 he combined for 41 minutes, shot 5-12 from the field, 3-8 from 3, 13-14 from the line, scored 25 points, 3 assists, 7 boards. Then he went off against Arizona scoring 28 points in 31 minutes on 9-15 FG, 2-4 from 3, 8-9 from the line, 3 assists.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Nitpick but Kyrie actually was pretty good in his first couple games back and great in the Sweet 16. In rounds 1 and 2 he combined for 41 minutes, shot 5-12 from the field, 3-8 from 3, 13-14 from the line, scored 25 points, 3 assists, 7 boards. Then he went off against Arizona scoring 28 points in 31 minutes on 9-15 FG, 2-4 from 3, 8-9 from the line, 3 assists.
He played spot minutes the first couple games at the 2 then got more involved but numbers aside he was heavier and slower than he was pre-injury. He wasn't the same Kyrie as he was earlier in the year was my only point.
 

tims4wins

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He played spot minutes the first couple games at the 2 then got more involved but numbers aside he was heavier and slower than he was pre-injury. He wasn't the same Kyrie as he was earlier in the year was my only point.
Got it. As a Dukie I try to forget that Arizona loss.
 

thehitcat

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I heard on ESPNU radio coming in this morning that there have been 5 30-15 games under Coach K at Duke. Christian Laettner had one in ~1990 and the other 4 are all Bagley this year. That seems incredible to me considering the talent that has come through the Durham pipeline.

I think he's going to be a great pro. Full of Effort and Talent. He's got to go first you would think. Hope it's someplace like Phoenix, Memphis or Orlando rather than LA, Philly or Cleveland.
 

thehitcat

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I just looked at Tankathon for the updated standings and they had him going SIXTH in their mock, which to me suggests they aren't watching the same games I am. I can see him being behind Doncic based on the fact that Doncic has been playing effectively against men but behind Ayton, Young, Jaren Jackson, and Michael Porter who has played about 35 minutes this season seems insane to me.
 

DJnVa

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I think he's going to be a great pro. Full of Effort and Talent. He's got to go first you would think. Hope it's someplace like Phoenix, Memphis or Orlando rather than LA, Philly or Cleveland.
LA's draft choice is going to Philly or Boston, so there's pretty much no way he goes there.
 

BigSoxFan

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I just looked at Tankathon for the updated standings and they had him going SIXTH in their mock, which to me suggests they aren't watching the same games I am. I can see him being behind Doncic based on the fact that Doncic has been playing effectively against men but behind Ayton, Young, Jaren Jackson, and Michael Porter who has played about 35 minutes this season seems insane to me.
Yeah, Bagley is my clear cut #2 and I’m not ruling out #1 yet either. He is really good and a near lock to be a very good NBA player. And he’s actually a few days younger than Doncic. I’m not sold on Porter at all and that was before the injury. For me it’s:

Doncic
Bagley
Ayton
Young
Jackson
Porter
Bamba

Really wish that Lakers pick had landed. Adding one of those guys to the current core would have been awesome.
 

DJnVa

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Yeah, Bagley is my clear cut #2 and I’m not ruling out #1 yet either. He is really good and a near lock to be a very good NBA player. And he’s actually a few days younger than Doncic. I’m not sold on Porter at all and that was before the injury. For me it’s:

Doncic
Bagley
Ayton
Young
Jackson
Porter
Bamba

Really wish that Lakers pick had landed. Adding one of those guys to the current core would have been awesome.
Scouts say Ayton is #1

https://sports.yahoo.com/deandre-ayton-worth-tanking-nba-teams-hes-anomaly-184231170.html

In the mock-draft universe, there’s not a ton of consensus on who’ll go No. 1. There are infatuations with Luka Doncic, a Slovenian guard who may be the most accomplished young European prospect to ever enter the NBA. But the reality is that few around the NBA can conceive anyone other than Arizona’s Ayton being picked No. 1.
One scout said the chances of him going No. 1 are 95 percent. Another chuckled at the notion of anyone else going No. 1.
 

BigSoxFan

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slamminsammya

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The gap between the NBA and a team like Madrid is much smaller than the gap between Madrid and College Ball. I don't see how scouts can so easily dismiss taking a 19 year old leading a team of professionals in Doncic. I mean, I can see it in that they probably aren't international scouts and still have a bias/PTSD from the Nikoloz Tskitishvillis of the world.

I mean, what Doncic is accomplishing is insane. I don't think people fully appreciate how good that level of competition is.
 

slamminsammya

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Another way to put it.

People are more impressed by Ayton, who has the body of a man and is playing against boys, than Doncic, who has the body of a boy and is playing against men.
 

Jimbodandy

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Another way to put it.

People are more impressed by Ayton, who has the body of a man and is playing against boys, than Doncic, who has the body of a boy and is playing against men.
Ayton is 7 months older than Doncic. His production and skills are staggeringly good, and his team is 26-7 in the PAC12. It's not like they had a cupcake schedule or underperformed. I just don't see any weaknesses. The only way that he isn't an impact big immediately in the NBA is if a body part falls off. He should thank his lucky stars that the Sixers can't draft him.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The gap between the NBA and a team like Madrid is much smaller than the gap between Madrid and College Ball. I don't see how scouts can so easily dismiss taking a 19 year old leading a team of professionals in Doncic. I mean, I can see it in that they probably aren't international scouts and still have a bias/PTSD from the Nikoloz Tskitishvillis of the world.

I mean, what Doncic is accomplishing is insane. I don't think people fully appreciate how good that level of competition is.
Players are drafted on what they are projected to become at 25 not what they are at 19. The question evaluators must answer is if Ayton's stiffness and sometimes poor motor are enough to limit his upside while projecting is Doncic's lack of elite athleticism for a wing will limit his. I can see a case for limiting both......I don't see a case for limiting Bagley as he, like Ayton, has overcome the college rules for 4/5's while expanding his game showing his perimeter shooting, ballhandling, and defensive versatility. It's why I have him head and shoulders now above Ayton and Doncic......I don't see his growth slowing down over the next 5 years due to the potential weaknesses of these other two.
 

minischwab

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No love for Collin Sexton lately, but he's a MUCH better prospect than Trae Young. Taking his game to another level this weekend and putting himself into the top 10 pick range.
 

Montana Fan

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Tankathon mock has the Celts grabbing Gary Trent Jr with their pick. Obviously a lot can change but I'd be interested in hearing you fellas projections for the Dookie.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Tankathon mock has the Celts grabbing Gary Trent Jr with their pick. Obviously a lot can change but I'd be interested in hearing you fellas projections for the Dookie.
I mentioned him as a target for the C's own pick earlier in the thread, but he's not particularly exciting. If he had a bit more size to defend NBA SFs or better handle and vision to anything other than a shooter on offense, I'd like his upside, but then I suppose he wouldn't be considered a late round guy if that was the case. Strong, pretty heady from what I've seen, but not particularly athletic. He's a great shooter though, and he has some iso skills, so he'll have a place in the NBA. Kinda reminds me of a SG/SF version of Mook.
 

BigSoxFan

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Ayton is just murdering USC, he's such a beast. his passing is underrated.
He was ridiculous tonight. I think he’s your #1 pick. Doncic is averaging 15/5/5 this year as an 18/19 year-old in La Liga, which is nuts. Only shooting 31% from downtown, which is a little surprising but not a huge red flag at this point. I prefer Bagley at #3 but feel like picks 3-7 could go a million different ways.
 

nighthob

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I mentioned him as a target for the C's own pick earlier in the thread, but he's not particularly exciting. If he had a bit more size to defend NBA SFs or better handle and vision to anything other than a shooter on offense, I'd like his upside, but then I suppose he wouldn't be considered a late round guy if that was the case. Strong, pretty heady from what I've seen, but not particularly athletic. He's a great shooter though, and he has some iso skills, so he'll have a place in the NBA. Kinda reminds me of a SG/SF version of Mook.
Trent’s OK, but my preference is that someone with higher upside like Anfernee Simons or Isaac Bonga slide to Boston’s pick.
 

nighthob

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Since I am no longer on the road and can type more, some more thoughts on Simons and Bonga.

Anfernee Simons
Positives: He reminds me a lot of Markelle Fultz or James Harden, that same sort of herky jerky motion that puts defenders on their heels and allows him to get shots off the dribble that he has no right getting given the athleticism. The shooting form is good and he finishes effectively now (more on that in a moment). He's more of a new fangled lead guard than an old fashioned point guard, but his height and length could serve him well in that role. He's a willing defender, anticipates passing lanes well.

Negatives: He might be 170 wearing a flak jacket. He needs serious time in the weight room to bulk up if he has any prayer of finishing at the rim in the NBA. His willowy frame is also going to limit him on the defensive end, and because he's basically a college freshman playing high schoolers, there's a question of how well the whole package holds up against grown men.

Overall: He clearly needs to add another 35-45 pounds to his frame, and there's no way of projecting how this impacts his game at the moment. It's why he's all over the place on 2018 mocks. He likely spends the first couple of years in the G League, but Boston is in the position of not needing immediate contributions from their draftee, so they have the time to let him mature in Portland.

Isaac Bonga
Positives: Tall and long. 6'9" with a seven foot wingspan. Quick and athletic enough to handle Boston's switchy defensive scheme. Dribbles really well for someone that size, a crack whore's Greek Freak. Great shot creator, especially for others.

Negatives: A crack whore's Greek Freak. Not much of a shooter. He's not Simmonsesque, but he's also not the athlete that Simmons is, so he can't get where he wants at will. He is passable out into the 14'-16' range, but he doesn't shoot many threes and shoots them at a Marcus Smartian rate. Like Smart his FT% is so good that you would assume that he'd figure out the distance shooting, but that hasn't worked out for Smart, so there's a real question there.

Overall: If he puts the tools together he's a real asset. Otherwise a JAG. He tends to be in the 25-40 range on most mocks. He offers Boston the same advantage that Yabu Dabu Du did, he can be drafted and stashed overseas for a year leaving Boston with the luxury tax space to roll this team back next season and make a real run at the title.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Since I am no longer on the road and can type more, some more thoughts on Simons and Bonga.
Appreciate 'hob. I'd prefer the upside of either of those guys over Trent too.

Shake Milton is a guy I can see running a second unit. Just one of those combo guards who does everything well.

Chimezie Metu and Brandon McCoy are guys with size and athleticism who might've been talked about as lottery picks 15 years ago, but could be available late due to the general shift away from more traditional bigs. Both guys have shown signs of being able to stretch out their range though.

Last year around this time I was pretty into Donovan Mitchell, and was hoping against all practicality that the Cs could swing something for a mid round pick to target him to replace Bradley. This year Zhaire Smith is that guy, and no, not just because of the 270 off of the lob he just threw down. Like Mitchell, he combines elite athleticism with, from what I've seen, a great mentality- tenacious, smart, and in control. This is my third time seeing him, but I'm really impressed. Not sure if he'll declare, but this year I've seen him mocked in the 20s, and sometimes even in the second round, which is crazy to me. I take a gamble on the athleticism, defense, and intangibles every time. If he's still available at 20 or so, I'd love to see the Celtics try to move up. He seems like he'd fit right it.
 

HomeRunBaker

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USC's Metu is a projected 2nd rounder and skipping the NIT to prevent injury yet Wendell Carter is a surefire mid-lottery pick playing for Duke with a sore Achilles. One thing I've learned over the years is what comes after a sore Achilles if you don't shut it down. Where are his people chirping in Wendell's ear to shut it down? Memo to Mr. Carter.....Duke does not care about you.
 

nighthob

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Last year around this time I was pretty into Donovan Mitchell, and was hoping against all practicality that the Cs could swing something for a mid round pick to target him to replace Bradley. This year Zhaire Smith is that guy, and no, not just because of the 270 off of the lob he just threw down. Like Mitchell, he combines elite athleticism with, from what I've seen, a great mentality- tenacious, smart, and in control. This is my third time seeing him, but I'm really impressed. Not sure if he'll declare, but this year I've seen him mocked in the 20s, and sometimes even in the second round, which is crazy to me. I take a gamble on the athleticism, defense, and intangibles every time. If he's still available at 20 or so, I'd love to see the Celtics try to move up. He seems like he'd fit right it.
If Smith declares I'd love to see him in Boston. Playing on a team this stacked would help him with his one glaring weakness (shooting). If he improves his handle some more, and begins to see the floor better, he's an ideal third guard.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Another way to put it.

People are more impressed by Ayton, who has the body of a man and is playing against boys, than Doncic, who has the body of a boy and is playing against men.
But the body matters. Ayton isn't exactly Shaq but you can't dismiss size.
 

tims4wins

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Just a quick note on Bagley: in his first 20 games, he took 38 3s (1.9 per game) and made 12 (31.6%)

In his last 10 games, he has taken 17 3s (1.7 per game) and has made 9 (52.9%)

May just be SSS but his stroke looks really smooth