That also runs the risk that Buchholz himself is the guy who goes down with injury. Leaving us without the trade return and the $13m flexibility you had initially planned to save or do whatever with.
The 2017 Rotation
- Thread starter DanoooME
- Start date
The rumors sites have a growing list of names of pitchers being discussed, including the Diamondbacks basket of deplorable 2016 performances. What actually constitutes the market is in the eye of the beholder I guess.
Thinking a bunch outside the box, Edro's secondary pitches are still a work in progress. Maybe see if he can become a a lights-out left handed Relief Ace to start the season and keep his innings down? They still won't want him throwing 210 or more next year after an abbreviated 2016.
Wright is the long man and spot starter when Buchholz gets hurt. Edro can go into the rotation when a second starter goes on the shelf inevitably. Numbers problem solved, depth kept in full.
The cost only is DFAing at least two of Hembree, Elias, and Abad, who barring injury in spring training, have no options and no role and would need to beat out Barnes as well, though he could go to AAA to wait until he's needed. Kimbrell, T, Kelly, Ross, Wright, Edro, and one more. I don't think the difference between Hembree and Barnes is worth losing Hembree permanently.
Wright is the long man and spot starter when Buchholz gets hurt. Edro can go into the rotation when a second starter goes on the shelf inevitably. Numbers problem solved, depth kept in full.
The cost only is DFAing at least two of Hembree, Elias, and Abad, who barring injury in spring training, have no options and no role and would need to beat out Barnes as well, though he could go to AAA to wait until he's needed. Kimbrell, T, Kelly, Ross, Wright, Edro, and one more. I don't think the difference between Hembree and Barnes is worth losing Hembree permanently.
Sure, if your only goal is to remove the salary, you could trade him tomorrow.
If you want to get something tangible back for him, you make it widely known he's available and if you get a good offer take it. Otherwise, you take him to spring training and play the waiting game on injury, be it him, another Sox SP or another team. Unfortunately there's no way around risk when discussing this player, be it one form or another.
I guess I should have been clearer. A lot on the market now compared to what the market will be in a month or so before ST starts.
How about a modified 6 man rotation? Porcello, Sale, Price go every 5th day with Erod, Wright, and one of Buch/Pom in the 3rd and 5th spot in the rotation. Each would get skipped a turn thru. They would be pitching every 7th or 8th day. It would keep their innings down and stretched out when someone eventually goes down. They also could be used out of the pen dependent on when they pitch next. Buchholz or Pom could be traded for the best return.
It's easy to overthink this.
Our #6 starter will be the long man in the bullpen, and any of the four guys we're talking about would be fine in that role.
We need a #7 starter who has options (so that he doesn't have to occupy a spot on the major league roster all year just in case two starters go down) and is better than Henry Owens. The only person fitting that description right now is Eduardo Rodriguez, and he's busy being our #4 starter. So we need to go out and get someone like that.
The good news is, whichever of the four guys we end up trading, we should be able to get a guy like that, plus more -- potentially lots more, depending on who gets traded.
Our #6 starter will be the long man in the bullpen, and any of the four guys we're talking about would be fine in that role.
We need a #7 starter who has options (so that he doesn't have to occupy a spot on the major league roster all year just in case two starters go down) and is better than Henry Owens. The only person fitting that description right now is Eduardo Rodriguez, and he's busy being our #4 starter. So we need to go out and get someone like that.
The good news is, whichever of the four guys we end up trading, we should be able to get a guy like that, plus more -- potentially lots more, depending on who gets traded.
Another option would be a modified 7 man rotation with the Big 3 (Sale, Porcello, Price) going every third game and then utilize each of the next 4 (Pomeranz, Buchholz, Edro, Wright) as starter/relievers? Each of the back 4, would start approx 16 games and log some time in the pen between their starts which would occur every 9 games. In the abstract it would seem fairly straightforward to get 130 IPs or so out of each of these 4 (approx 95 as a starter and 35 in the pen). In any given game 2 of them would be avail for pen duty. If you could get 1150 or so IPs out of these 7, that would leave but 300 or so for the other 5 spots on the staff, which seems about right. Is pitching 130 by way of 16 starts and approx 35 relief appearances implausible as too strenuous? especially if it was fairly predictable routine with ample rest between appearances? I would think it might be easier than 70-75 IPs out of the pen in 65-70 outings or 180+ IPs going every 5th game, which none of these 4 have proven capable of late. Does it not also address the issue with needing to "stretch a guy out" if you want to move him from the pen. I appreciate this is unlikely and I dont doubt there may be good reasons not to do this, I just dont know what they are now.
A team trying to win now should have as its #1 priority that the five best starting pitchers are in the rotation. Then you figure out what to do with #6 and #7. It seems plainly obvious to me that the best five are Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, and Wright. Pomeranz is #6, and has experience in the bullpen, so he goes there unless someone in the top 5 goes down for an extended period of time. If someone misses just a start or two, they bring up whoever looks the best in Pawtucket at the time. Buchholz is #7, so he either gets converted to relief full time, or he gets traded for the best offer.
I don't think it's obvious that Wright is better than Pomeranz.
Pomeranz made 6 more starts at an ERA 0.01 lower and a FIP 0.03 higher. He threw 14 more innings, walked 8 more batters but hit 8 fewer with pitches, but struck out 49 more. He allowed one fewer hit, but 10 more HR. They were very close: Pomeranz had a lot more Ks, but Wright went more than half an inning deeper into games on average.
However, unearned runs are significant with knuckleballers, and unaccounted for in both ERA and FIP. Wright allowed 16 UER to Pomeranz' 2. That's a full fifth of the runs Wright allowed on the season, and it makes his season line look much less impressive. Wright's ERA was 3.33, and his RA9 was 4.25.
Another option would be everyone pitches one inning every game. This would be equally as viable as a seven man rotation.
How many more innings does Wright throw if he doesn't pinch run?
Also, there is a documented hangover effect on hitters that makes them do worse than expected against the next pitcher they face after seeing a knuckleballer.
He may have been pitching himself out of the rotation. In the 8 starts before the injury, his ERA was north of 5 (5.03). Generally, knuckleballers who have ERAs on the wrong side of 5 don't last in rotations too long,
Well, let's look at those 8 starts, or maybe 9 because I like bookends:
6/20: 9 IP, 1 unearned run (Shaw error and botched pickoff throw) on 5 H, 3BB, 6 SO. Kimbrel with the loss in the 10th.
6/25: 5 unearned runs in the fifth on errors by Xander and Hanley, and it's a Ross WP that lets in the last. Still, 3 earned in the fourth before that, and he admits he doesn't have the knuckle. Beaten by summer in Arlington, again.
7/1: after 5 scoreless, loses control as the sixth gets rainy. Double, HBP, walk, GS on a full count fastball where Farrell says he should have thrown the knuckle.
7/6: 5 good innings (1 unearned on a Pedey error) again, then 5ER across the 6th and 7th as he and Hanigan, with a 10 run lead, start trying to challenge with fastballs to go deeper and spare the pen in a blowout.
7/15: great through 5 scoreless, sitting down the first 14 in a row, loses control a bit in the sixth with a HPB and walk coming around for 2 of 3 ER, but finishes the inning.
7/21: 8 IP, 2 runs (1 earned) on 4 hits, 9 SO, 1BB. Maybe it doesn't count cause Twins?
7/26: a bad game. 9 runs (8 earned) on 8 hits, 3 BB, a HR to Miggy, wild pitches moving base runners.
7/31: not good either, but luckier. Somehow scatters 10 hits and 3 BB across 5 IP while only giving up 3, all in the 5th. Helps his own case by getting two putouts at home in the first alone.
8/5: 9 IP, 3 hits, 9 SO, 1 BB, complete game shutout.
That's a really interesting stretch with a bad couple games at the end of July, and it demonstrated an easy lesson that I think Farrell recognized: If Wright needs to rely on his fastball, you're in trouble. His knuckleball is clearly susceptible to rain and sweat, but you also need to be ready with a quick hook in the fifth or sixth if it falters with fatigue, and in those cases it's generally better to have him walk a couple guys while you get a reliever ready. All the trouble in those middle innings makes me think maybe he should be viewed primarily as a twice through the order guy, with leeway to go longer if he's having a dominant night.
But his flaws seem to be pretty manageable if you know what to look for, really. I think in my mind he's the fifth starter if he proves his shoulder has recovered next spring.
Your pointing out that so many of the UER weren't on passed balls actually makes me more favorable to Wright than I had been.
Yeah, I honestly expected to see more of that in this stretch, as it was certainly an issue at some points during the season with Hanigan catching in particular; his LOB% was down 3.6 from 2015, when it was exactly league average. Makes me think though that errors might just be more easily exploited with a knuckleballer on the mound, given the greater likelihood of passed balls/wild pitches/HBP moving a runner into scoring position.
It seems beyond obvious, to me, at least, that Wright should be (like he was this past season) slotted to be the long relief/spot starter guy. He ended up being a starter by Spring Training and it's very possible to happen again. But with knuckleballers unpredictability, I'd prefer him penciled in to start the season not in the rotation.
Pomeranz should be the no. 5 guy. I understand we shouldn't look at what we sent away to get him.... but I just can't. If we deal him, his return should be an equal value and I can't see that happening. He had a rough transition to the AL East... who wouldn't expect that in mid season?!?!?! I was actually expecting worse. We saw an entire horrible season out of Beckett, then Lackey and then Porcello (and some major struggles by Price) after coming here... why should Pomeranz be judged too quickly on half a season? Granted, he doesn't have the pedigree as Beckett or Price but he was slowly turning himself into one of the better pitchers in the NL... he's young and cost controlled which is what we need. Buchholz is likely to get injured so moving Drew will open up two holes and guarantee Wright as the no. 5 guy with a Henry Owens as the no. 6.
Also holding onto Drew keeps this rotation intact for the following two seasons while dealing him means we'd be on the hunt for another starter via free agency or trade after '17.
Pomeranz should be the no. 5 guy. I understand we shouldn't look at what we sent away to get him.... but I just can't. If we deal him, his return should be an equal value and I can't see that happening. He had a rough transition to the AL East... who wouldn't expect that in mid season?!?!?! I was actually expecting worse. We saw an entire horrible season out of Beckett, then Lackey and then Porcello (and some major struggles by Price) after coming here... why should Pomeranz be judged too quickly on half a season? Granted, he doesn't have the pedigree as Beckett or Price but he was slowly turning himself into one of the better pitchers in the NL... he's young and cost controlled which is what we need. Buchholz is likely to get injured so moving Drew will open up two holes and guarantee Wright as the no. 5 guy with a Henry Owens as the no. 6.
Also holding onto Drew keeps this rotation intact for the following two seasons while dealing him means we'd be on the hunt for another starter via free agency or trade after '17.
Both DD and Farrell are conventional with their handling of the rotation and pen. I doubt we will see any creative usage of the arms available. The innovator has since gone to manage another club. So, although, kininten had a reasonable idea it will never fly in Boston. I must agree with Poutine that KillerBs idea was a stretch even I could not agree with.
Not saying it's the best or most likely outcome, but I think people are seriously underestimating the possibility that all 7 guys are still here, healthy - and possibly even on the major league roster - on April 1. We went through a very similar discussion when Buchholz was demoted to the pen last season, with most people completely discounting the idea that he would simply be sent to the pen... and he was simply sent to the pen. This is a different situation, obviously, but I don't think the Sox will accept a deal where they lose value on an asset just because of a perceived pitching surplus.
Best five will start. I would have E-Rod penciled in at #4 (and I could also see him actually coming in sharper due to WBC but potentially needing to be shut down late in the season). If he's not in the top 5 to start the season, he gets optioned.
The other three all have their upside and downside as folks have mentioned. Wright is maybe the easiest decision - he fits right in as a swing man if he's not in the rotation, and you don't worry so much about his future development or trade value. If it's marginal between him and one of the others, he probably goes in the pen. I personally wouldn't mind selling high on Pomeranz if the right deal is out there, but I kind of doubt we will get bowled over there given how he finished the year. If you're not trading him, though, and there's not a glaring difference in performance in ST, I think you lean towards him for the #5 spot.
So going into ST I think Good Clay would have to show up and really kick the door down to get a spot in the rotation, barring injuries. But my guess at how it actually plays out is this - I think Pomeranz will hurt himself, Clay and E-Rod will end up in the rotation and Wright will be the swing man.
Best five will start. I would have E-Rod penciled in at #4 (and I could also see him actually coming in sharper due to WBC but potentially needing to be shut down late in the season). If he's not in the top 5 to start the season, he gets optioned.
The other three all have their upside and downside as folks have mentioned. Wright is maybe the easiest decision - he fits right in as a swing man if he's not in the rotation, and you don't worry so much about his future development or trade value. If it's marginal between him and one of the others, he probably goes in the pen. I personally wouldn't mind selling high on Pomeranz if the right deal is out there, but I kind of doubt we will get bowled over there given how he finished the year. If you're not trading him, though, and there's not a glaring difference in performance in ST, I think you lean towards him for the #5 spot.
So going into ST I think Good Clay would have to show up and really kick the door down to get a spot in the rotation, barring injuries. But my guess at how it actually plays out is this - I think Pomeranz will hurt himself, Clay and E-Rod will end up in the rotation and Wright will be the swing man.
If you're trading Pomeranz, you're putting a ton of faith in Wright as a starter. In 2018, when Buchholz is gone, and (in this scenario) you don't have Pomeranz, you're really rolling the dice on the back of the rotation.
Pom had a bad start after a 2 week layoff during the ASB, then went on a very nice run where he went 9 starts with a 3.35 ERA. You could easily tell he was having some injury and fatigue related issues during September based on his command.
I think it would be foolhardy to trade Pomeranz right now and go into 2017 with an always-injured Buchholz, and a wild card in Wright.
Trade Buchholz, use Wright's rubber arm in the bullpen and 6th starter, and go with a rotation of:
Porcello (Cy winner - gotta give him the OD start)
Sale
Price
Pomeranz
ERod
Pom had a bad start after a 2 week layoff during the ASB, then went on a very nice run where he went 9 starts with a 3.35 ERA. You could easily tell he was having some injury and fatigue related issues during September based on his command.
I think it would be foolhardy to trade Pomeranz right now and go into 2017 with an always-injured Buchholz, and a wild card in Wright.
Trade Buchholz, use Wright's rubber arm in the bullpen and 6th starter, and go with a rotation of:
Porcello (Cy winner - gotta give him the OD start)
Sale
Price
Pomeranz
ERod
Well, assuming no injuries, no trades, and everyone pitching up to their already-shown recent potential, we actually have 8 starters, 5 of which are optimized in the rotation:
1 Sale
2 Porcello
3 Price
4 Wright (goes long)
5 Buchholz (capable of true excellence)
-
6 Pomeranz (solid bullpen experience, with better pen numbers)
7 EdRo (only potential starter with an option - AAA)
8 Kelly (bullpen experience, better-ish pen numbers) (option?)
(I suppose this fantasy SP lineup slots one of Buch/Pom/Kelly for trade/BP, with the young Cy-like Edro and the cheap 8-inning Wright kept with an eye to the future, rather than stashing Edro in AAA or the BP.)
But in reality:
1 Sale (seems like a stable guy able to handle new situations and uniforms outside his routine with grace and poise, so I'm sure his first season will be better than Price's and Porcello's.)
2 Porcello (don't forget '15)
3 Price (don't forget early '16)
-
4 Buchholz (constantly inconsistent)
5 Pomeranz (overall meh 2016 showing)
6 EdRo (injury, inconsistent 2016)
7 Wright (career ending injury ?)
-
8 Kelly/Owens (break glass, maybe eat the glass if they make too many starts)
In reality I think you have your starting 5 as follows. The big three are sink or swim unless they completely implode or are injured. All others are going to get shuffled around accordingly, based on health and early pitching indications, since they can all work out of the pen or AAA, but they're all going to go through spring training as potential SPs.
I think, with the number of question marks, they'd be crazy to trade any of them now, except maybe in a package with Pablo for a young, excellent, cost controlled 3B, or a clear 1B heir-apparent. Right now, all we'd need is for Wright to continue to have shoulder trouble and Buchholz to get wonky. And that'd make Kelly/Owen our 6th starter.)
This is true, and is probably the biggest reason I hope they're quietly offering him, as well as Buchholz, as an option to various clubs looking for a starter.
MLB Traderumors estimates Kelly at a $2.6MM arbitration number. Which is awfully pricey for a 6th inning arm, but a great deal for a team who might still believe they can fix him up to start. And he comes with two full years of MLB club control.
A team with unsettled pitching and some budget concerns, but still with playoff aspirations - like the Pirates or the Royals -might well consider Kelly a better option than Clay for a 5th starter.
I'd listen to offers for Kelly from teams that still see him as a low cost SP option, but the return would need to be good. I think he still has some Wade Davis potential in him. I don't want them to give up the chance to see if that materializes for nothing.
I think Kelly wins the 8th inning job by May. If that happens than 2.6 for a set up guy is a steal. DD loves his hard throwers and Kelly is certainly that. I would be interested in the team stretching out Barnes however if they deem him destined for Pawtucket. I feel like they gave up on him as a starter way too quick.
I'm excited to see what happens with EdRo in 2017. The last couple months were very encouraging.
August: 27 IP, 23.2 K%, 9.3 BB%, 2.50 K/BB, 1.04 WHIP, 3.33 ERA, 3.37FIP, 4.01xFIP
Sep/Oct: 33 IP, 28.1 K%, 8.6%, 3.25 K/BB, 1.06 WHIP, 3.27 ERA, 2.93FIP, 4.42xFIP
There are certainly some questions for EdRo going into 2016 that he'll need to answer.
August: 27 IP, 23.2 K%, 9.3 BB%, 2.50 K/BB, 1.04 WHIP, 3.33 ERA, 3.37FIP, 4.01xFIP
Sep/Oct: 33 IP, 28.1 K%, 8.6%, 3.25 K/BB, 1.06 WHIP, 3.27 ERA, 2.93FIP, 4.42xFIP
There are certainly some questions for EdRo going into 2016 that he'll need to answer.
- A viable 3rd pitch (cutter/changup)
- Going deep into games, 3rd time through batting order
- A full season's workload/durability
I'm sorry, did you not watch the playoffs?
Joe Kelly is going to be Davis in the 2017 Red Sox version of the 2014 Royals production of Holland, Davis, and Herrera.
He's only going to be a 6th inning option because he can also pitch the 7th.
I don't know if this has been mentioned in the variety of threads but why don't we simply listen to what Farrell said at the presser with DD seated next to him rather than speculate? He specifically mentioned 5 names when discussing the rotation while omitting Wright and Buchholz. There wasn't any hesitation in pointing toward the other 4 guys after Sale either.
To me the only question is whether Buchholz goes to the pen or if DD values the luxury tax benefits of moving him greater. Since DD doesn't appear to necessarily be a development guy I expect Clay to find a bullpen niche but I suppose that depends on the offer on the other end.
This may be the smartest and most accurate post in this thread. I watched that press conference and came away thinking they have already ranked their starters and Wright and Buchholz came it at 6 and 7. The rest is all roster jockeying.
There is no such thing as too much starting pitching. At least before Spring Training begins.
Let's see who shows up healthy in Florida, who stays healthy during the Spring Training season, and who looks ready for the season ahead. The balance of probabilities would suggest at least one potential starter will have an injury during ST, and won't be back until the middle of the year. And that another potential starter will pitch themselves out of contention. It's what always happens. And before we know it, the five man rotation will self select.
Of course, if against all logic and probability we end up with 7 or 8 healthy, in form starters come April, there will be another MLB team who needs an arm. And that's when the leverage is highest for the Sox. So count me in for hoarding assets, showcasing them in ST, and making any trade moves as close to Opening Day as possible
Let's see who shows up healthy in Florida, who stays healthy during the Spring Training season, and who looks ready for the season ahead. The balance of probabilities would suggest at least one potential starter will have an injury during ST, and won't be back until the middle of the year. And that another potential starter will pitch themselves out of contention. It's what always happens. And before we know it, the five man rotation will self select.
Of course, if against all logic and probability we end up with 7 or 8 healthy, in form starters come April, there will be another MLB team who needs an arm. And that's when the leverage is highest for the Sox. So count me in for hoarding assets, showcasing them in ST, and making any trade moves as close to Opening Day as possible
He's always had the changeup, the question was just the "viable" part. He seemed to answer this in the second half. His change was a Jekyll/Hyde beast in 2016; it got clobbered early on, but was ferocious in August and especially in September. The difference may have been that he stopped trying to increase the velocity gap between the change and the four-seamer. In May-July, the change was sitting around 87 and he was allowing an ISO around .500 on it; in August-October it was sitting 88-89 and that went down to zero--no extra-base hits on the change in over 150 pitches. It may be coincidental that this development coincided with Bannister's addition to the coaching staff. Or not.
As you would expect, the improved changeup hugely helped EdRo with righthanded hitters. In the first half he gave up a slash line of .302/.362/.657 to RHH; in the second half it was .197/.270/.344. Hard contact: first half 37.5%, second half 25.3%.
Interesting factoid: among 38 lefthanded pitchers with at least 100 innings last year, the Red Sox now have three of the top five for armside movement on their changeup: Sale 12.2, EdRo 11.6, Price 10.8. And for EdRo this movement seems to roughly track velocity: the harder he throws the change, the more it tails.
Last edited:
This is making the assumption that they don't believe Johnson or Owens can be a 5th starter, or that they don't think they will be capable of finding one on the trade or free agent markets. It's not like trading Pomeranz forces them to start Wright in 2018 or beyond.
That said, Wright is a nice solid bet as a back of the rotation guy. He's not the guy he looked like in the first half of 2016. At least, not over a full season or over longer samples going forward. He'll have great runs, he'll have awful runs... and he'll probably end up somewhere in the above to slightly below average range most years.
Unless his arm took permanent damage last year, this is the least of my worries when considering moving Pomeranz. But if there is a solid return available for him out there somewhere, I'm hoping the Red Sox front office will give it the consideration it deserves.
Because what else are they going to say at this point? "We have too much starting pitching and feel a lot of pressure to move someone in a trade. Please offer us fair value!"? They may very well be more interested in trading the guy who is going to bring back a better haul, which is Pomeranz.
But whether it's Buchholz, Wright or Pomeranz, all three of those guys have more value as starting pitchers to other teams than they will as relievers for the Sox. There is an opportunity to convert that gap in value into something else the Sox actually need. Whether that's better relievers, prospects, a better DH option or something else, the Red Sox should be looking to improve the efficiency of their asset distribution and that means shopping a starter. If the market is super dry, you have plenty of time to wait it out and should do exactly that. But there is more to gain than luxury tax relief.
With Edro's intentions to pitch in the WBC, I am curious how much that factors into the Sox plans. I am assuming WBC innings will be more taxing than spring training innings. Will they need to control his inning total by skipping a few starts and/or a mid-summer DL stint, etc? If so, are they less willing to trade away their SP surplus??
But what if the value they offer to the Redsox is the difference between a WS and a playoff exit? Maybe they could trade a pitcher for an offensive improvement buy maybe some of that improvement is lost by the laws of diminishing return. Maybe Pom because a lock down 8th inning reliever or Clay pitches like Dr. Jekyl instead of Mr. Hyde (whichever the good version of Clay would be). Or maybe they offer less value for the Redsox than they would another team but they offer more value to the Redsox than any potential trade.
Anyway, I personally think Pom should be the 4th starter AINEC. He pitched a career high 170.2ip last year and his performance was right in line with the previous 2 years he spent in the bullpen. His struggles in Boston last year were HR related and that seems mostly flukish and possibly fatigue related. Of course he did spent 2 1/2 years pitching in Oakland and SD which probably helps him hide his longballitis if he actually has it. He didn't in the minors though, and Colorado is Colorado. His game logs in Boston show a different story than his overall line though.
As Ole Hickory pointed out in his latest piece, they likely don't move anyone until Spring Training, so mid March is my expectation. Making determinations on Sandoval, Vaxquez, Swihart, Johnson, Elias and Owens will tell them if they are trading for depth, or trading for need. This seems a wise choice. That said, if someone offers high value, especially young arms, I can see a path to an earlier trade.
That's fine, but there's always the distinct possibility that the most efficient route is, in fact, to do nothing. Accounting for injury and poor performance has been covered extensively in this thread, but there seems to be an underlying assumption among many posters here that there's anything close to the present value of Buchholz, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, et al. to be had on the trade market. I don't think that's necessarily the case.
For one, any team that is looking to trade for Buchholz is presumably a contender looking to backfill their rotation. That means the return will be, almost by definition, a player that is not going to contribute meaningfully to an ML roster this year (if ever). I would argue this holds true for Wright as well.
Pomeranz and Rodriguez are different stories, in that teams building for the future would be interested in them. But that still doesn't guarantee that the Red Sox will be able to secure equivalent (or better) present value in any trades headlined by these starters. This is a common assumption that has almost no support.
The other possibility is a team with salary and roster space who *aren't* contending, who want to try a risky quasi-arbitrage play between off-season and deadline trade markets. Pick up Buchholz on the cheap now, use him to avoid rushing the kids, and if he has a good first half, cash in. Basically what Oakland did with Rich Hill.
Maybe the Phillies, Arizona, or even the White Sox if they deal Quintana, would be interested along these lines.
On top of that what do you even trade them for atm? I get the binky withdraw for some is at a high atm, but does anybody honestly believe the Red Sox with DD at the helm are going to take away from the cost controlled MLB roster right now in the name of a pure prospect return? That is probably more a Bizarro World line of thought then reality imo.
Barring the out-of-left field-blockbuster possibility, almost all of our notable roster spots that would even potentially match up as worthy return areas have a player mostly cemented in them. I mean with all things considered are you really going to trade a cost controlled starter for that RHH insurance policy to Pablo, or I guess maybe another bullpen arm that is only somewhat better then what we already have behind Kimbrel?
I'd trade him for prospects, like a guy with options you could use a depth starter without messing up the bull-pen. Or the best prospect you can get.
So we keep the rental guy in Buchholz, and then likely downgrade one of Edro/Pom (and take on the greater bust risk potential) just to gain option flexibility?
That wouldn't make a lot of sense here imo, but to each their own I guess.
I don't really care and I'm not sure the Sox do either. The value of the trade is to clear a roster spot. It sucks, but that's why there are roster limits and limits on who can be sent down when. Come the day--whenever it is--the Sox will look at whatever offers they have on the table and accept the one they feel results in the best team.
I was referring to Buchholz. Sorry, my mistake keeping track of who you were talking aout.
How does this square with reportedly asking the Marlins for Luis Castillo for Buchholz?
It should square up just fine for those who are not continually making reaches in regards to any probability outcome here other then the most overwhelmingly obvious one on the table.
Buchholz is on a one year contract and makes a lot more $$$ then the other internal options...all of which still project be here btw when we are having our annual depth debate a year from now. The attempt to try and get the best offer you can there on Buchholz is hardly making a connection to Edro/Pom also being on the trade block radar.
(Reading back, I see that I'd lost the thread of conversation somewhat and thought you were arguing something different than I now see that you were. Carry on!)