The 2017/2018 Boston Celtics Regular season thread

[the moops]

Couple thoughts from me

1) I fear Jaylen will never quite get it on the offensive end. He either looks too timid or too out of control most of the time. However, defensively he has made huge strides and Stevens seems to trust him

2) Baynes has been a very pleasant surprise. Has a nice soft touch from 20 feet and his defense and toughness is important to this team.

 

[ugmo33]

A couple of thoughts:

1. Horford is rebounding more this year than last, particularly on the defensive glass. His defensive rebound rate through 6 games is 24.8%, better than his career average of 22% and close to his career season high of 25.0% in his second year. By contrast, his career offenive rebound rate this year would be his career low (4.3%). His last full season with a better rebound rate than he has currently was 2012-13. This could be a small sample size anomaly, but I also wonder if it has to do with the Celtics' team defense - maybe they are not making it as easy on offensive rebounders this year, allowing Horford to rebound more.

2. Kyrie has been a ballhawk in the early going. Right now he is tied with Marcus Smart for second on the team in steal percentage at 3.2% (Rozier leads at 3.5%). Going into this season, his annual steal percentages were 1.8%, 2.3%, 2.2%, 2.2% (first LeBron year), 1.7%, and 1.6%, so this is either a small sample size fluke or a real shift from Cleveland Kyrie to Boston Kyrie. Interestingly, his career box/plus minus numbers are +4.4 (offensive) and -1.5 (defensive). This year he is at +1.6 (offensive) and +2.0 (defensive), both of which are crazy outliers for him (career worst and best, repsectively). I assume a lot of this can be chalked up to sample size or changing team context, although it is somewhat odd that these numbers for Kyrie were basically consistent in his first three (no LeBron) and last three (with LeBron) years in Cleveland.

This is really interesting and fits with what I've seen in the games. Kyrie seems to be trying really hard...to the point that his offensive game seems off like he's overly concerned with running "the system". He'll over-pass and then wave his arms to get the ball back, and then sometimes revert to iso ball and long pull-up twos. While on the defensive side he seems engaged, scrambling for loose balls and fighting for steals. I like it and it seems like it will balance out over the course of the season, and, as someone else mentioned, his chemistry with Horford seems great.

I didn't get to watch the game last night. Can anyone explain JB's box score line? It looks terrible but he had by far the best plus/minus

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Couple thoughts from me

1) I fear Jaylen will never quite get it on the offensive end. He either looks too timid or too out of control most of the time. However, defensively he has made huge strides and Stevens seems to trust him

2) Baynes has been a very pleasant surprise. Has a nice soft touch from 20 feet and his defense and toughness is important to this team.

Agree on both counts. Someone posted on twitter that Horford and Baynes have a defensive rating of 71.2 when they are on the floor together.

This is really interesting and fits with what I've seen in the games. Kyrie seems to be trying really hard...to the point that his offensive game seems off like he's overly concerned with running "the system". He'll over-pass and then wave his arms to get the ball back, and then sometimes revert to iso ball and long pull-up twos. While on the defensive side he seems engaged, scrambling for loose balls and fighting for steals. I like it and it seems like it will balance out over the course of the season, and, as someone else mentioned, his chemistry with Horford seems great.

We'll see. I am sure he is trying to fit in and not yet comfortable in the system.

Nice article here on how Smart and Horford have been working to free him up late in games.

http://celticswire.com/2017/10/29/celtics-film-study-kyrie-irving-finds-himself-late-in-miami/

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I can't believe you guys are seriously concerned about Jaylen's offense. He turned 21 last week and has scored 18+ in half his games this year on 50%+ shooting in each. So he struggled (badly) in two consecutive road games......isn't this expected?

 

[tbrown_01923]

@hrb I am with you. His good games provide glimpses of what he can be.

This year they provide insight into a more efficient offensive player than I would have expected based on last years minutes. Consistency will come with reps, and certainly there will be nights when his shot isn't falling. He needs to learn to recognize those nights during the course of the game and change his approach accordingly (aka adjust).

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I can't believe you guys are seriously concerned about Jaylen's offense. He turned 21 last week and has scored 18+ in half his games this year on 50%+ shooting in each. So he struggled (badly) in two consecutive road games......isn't this expected?

Another way to look at it is that he is really good against teams that have bad perimeter defense, aka Cleveland. I don't know. He's better this year than I expected, but I don't see him ever being an elite or go-to scorer. Look at all the ways Tatum can put himself in position to score that Brown can't, despite Tatum being younger, less experienced, less athletic than Brown.

I might be underselling him, but I see him being more "good supporting cast type of starter" as opposed to future All-Star (Tatum).

 

[TimothyWSClark]

Another way to look at it is that he is really good against teams that have bad perimeter defense, aka Cleveland. I don't know. He's better this year than I expected, but I don't see him ever being an elite or go-to scorer. Look at all the ways Tatum can put himself in position to score that Brown can't, despite Tatum being younger, less experienced, less athletic than Brown.

I might be underselling him, but I see him being more "good supporting cast type of starter" as opposed to future All-Star (Tatum).

---from my perspective (still needing to see more of Jaylen) his development is entirely in line with becoming a Pippen kind of player (and I did see an awful lot of early Pippen), Pippen was similarly athletic, energetic, focused, sometimes out of control, versatile, and in need of an improved shot. Just like Pippen I see Jaylen improving in multiple facets of his game (e.g. defense & handle) and it appears that he is consciously developing his game. Pippen obviously was second banana to Jordan, and I certainly don't want to say Jaylen will have that kind of a future, but what I have seen thus far does not discourage me from envirioning that sort of a career. Not an elite scores, but an elite player due to contributing in many ways.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Scottie Pippen is light years better than Jaylen Brown will ever be as a playmaker.

 

[TimothyWSClark]

Scottie Pippen is light years better than Jaylen Brown will ever be as a playmaker.

you may be right. I may be overreading things, but I am hoping that Jaylen's apparent intelligence, desire to study the game, and team orientation will allow him greater progression in passing than another similarly inexperienced player

 

[ishmael]

Scottie Pippen is light years better than Jaylen Brown will ever be as a playmaker.

This. Scottie Pippen was a second banana on MJ's teams, but also a good enough all-around player (passing, dribbling, defense, ability to finish, and just enough shooting) to carry a pretty mediocre Bulls team to 55 wins as the clear first option. If Jaylen's career arc goes half as well as Scottie's I'd be ecstatic.

 

[the moops]

To be fair, Scottie didn't become that all around player until he was 24

 

[amarshal2]

It’s probably a bad idea to compare Jaylen to a top 50 All-Time NBA player without a host of caveats.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

On offense, I'm guessing Jaylen Brown ends up a lot like Corey Maggette but with a better 3 point shot and better on defense. That's an incredibly valuable player.

 

[benhogan]

Couple thoughts from me

1) I fear Jaylen will never quite get it on the offensive end. He either looks too timid or too out of control most of the time. However, defensively he has made huge strides and Stevens seems to trust him

2) Baynes has been a very pleasant surprise. Has a nice soft touch from 20 feet and his defense and toughness is important to this team.

1. How can you be in fear about Jaylen?
He's just 21, is much stronger, has tightened his shooting form, and improved his handle from last year. He is clearly putting the work in. If we see even small improvements continue for the next few seasons he'll be an All-Star calibre player. Absolutely zero worry about Jaylen Brown, he's progressing just fine.

2. Agree. Baynes looks to be another brilliant move by Danny. A big that can shoot from the perimeter, rebound and defend. His defensive rebound % is off the charts. Good article attached below. Check out the 2nd GIF, and Baynes completely demoralizes 'yellow shoes' with his box out. Absolutely love the way Brad uses Baynes, just matches him up against the other teams BIG(5). No one is concerned about who 'starts', just play the match-up. Baynes will help neutralize the East Coast posse of Monroe, Howard, Thompson, Drummond, Embid, Gortat, Turner, Whiteside, etc. This frees' up and creates less wear/tear on Al Horford, Al can play the 4 and match up defensively against skilled big men like Ben Simmons, LeBron and Giannis. Theis has been nice in short spells at the 5 and look forward to Marcus Morris soaking up minutes at the 4.

https://www.celticsblog.com/2017/10/29/16565858/the-read-react-gritty-win-in-miami-heat-boston-celtics

It's early but I'd like Danny to extend the 30yr old Baynes another 2yrs at this pay rate. The guy is a physical specimen and built like a brick shit house, he appears to be ageing well.

 

[slamminsammya]

Of course there are reasons for optimism about Jaylen's game. But you don't need to watch too long to see very quickly that:

1) The guy's one move is pretty much to put his head down and go to the hoop, and that

2) He never passes.

He has like 1 dime in his last three games total. And it was a dump of to Tatum who wasn't exactly open but just shot anyways. While it is true to say "he's only 21", its also true that there are lots of 21 year olds who have much more advanced feel for the game which shows up with, among other box score states, having more than one assist in three games.

Edit: No reason not to look up the actual number but laziness. Its one assist in his last 4 games. 4 assists for the whole season so far.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

1. How can you be in fear about Jaylen?
He's just 21, is much stronger, has tightened his shooting form, and improved his handle from last year. He is clearly putting the work in. If we see even small improvements continue for the next few seasons he'll be an All-Star calibre player. Absolutely zero worry about Jaylen Brown, he's progressing just fine.

I can't speak for the moops, but I don't think he was saying that he fears that Jaylen will suck offensively, just that he won't be the offensive star people hope for when they draft a player at #3.

 

[lexrageorge]

I can't speak for the moops, but I don't think he was saying that he fears that Jaylen will suck offensively, just that he won't be the offensive star people hope for when they draft a player at #3.

At this point, there don't appear to be any budding offensive stars among the players that were drafted after Brown, either. Unless you want to count Brogdon in the 2nd round. Personally, I think it's too early to write off his offense; his game is still raw in some areas. I thought he got the right looks in the game in Milwaukee; he just seemed to misfire on them, which will happen. And he scored 18 the first time he played against the Bucks.

Good news is that he's fitting in nicely into this team right now. It's definitely too much to ask of him to pick up all of the offensive slack left by Hayward. But maybe by mid-season he can make some teams think twice about keying solely on Irving late in the 4th.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

There’s a large gap between “writing off his offense” and projecting stardom, and I think Jaylen falls somewhere in that gap.

I expect him to become an above average 3 point shooter who can also drive close outs and do other things offensively, while also helping on the boards and having defensive value due to his versatility.

There’s a ton of value in all that, but he’ll never be the guy you build a team around.

 

[DJnVa]

SI Story on Brown/Tatum: https://www.si.com/nba/2017/10/30/celtics-jaylen-brown-jayson-tatum-gordon-hayward-injury

Anyone have the numbers on this:

Tatum can still be a ball-stopper, and the disease of Trying to Do Too Much may yet ensnare him on the offensive end. The Celtics have actually been significantly more efficient scoring the ball when he’s off the floor.

And as to Brown's contributions when he's not scoring:

It’s a small sample size, but when he’s off the court, Boston’s net rating has been more than 13 points worse. The counting stats are nice, but Brown’s started to thrive outside the box score. Also, we only have a small sample size, but the Celtics own the NBA’s second-ranked defense, allowing just 95.1 points per 100 possessions over their first six games.

 

[smastroyin]

If you go to bbref, you can select the player, then select his on/off numbers.

I assume the article is talking about the fact that the Celtics score 7 more points/100 when Tatum is on the bench, and perhaps that they have a .535 eFG compared to .471.

The difficulty in on/off alone is that it doesn't account for rotations, etc.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

SI Story on Brown/Tatum: https://www.si.com/nba/2017/10/30/celtics-jaylen-brown-jayson-tatum-gordon-hayward-injury

Anyone have the numbers on this:


And as to Brown's contributions when he's not scoring:

Here's one iteration of the stats: http://www.fantasylabs.com/s/EF03BAF7.

Apparently, JT's on court statistics = 93.7 / 99.

JB's on court = 106.8 / 102.6. His offensive rating is the highest of anyone on the team who has played over 50 minutes.

By comparison, it appears that when Tatum is off court, JB's stats are 115.6 / 98.5. You can play with the numbers at the link.

One thing that seems odd about the ratings: only JB and Horford have positive net ratings. All of the other main rotation players are negative, and Baynes is negative 20.9. I assume at this stage of the season, a couple of bad runs can really affect the numbers.

 

[nighthob]

On offense, I'm guessing Jaylen Brown ends up a lot like Corey Maggette but with a better 3 point shot and better on defense. That's an incredibly valuable player.

I always say "a poor man's Jimmy Butler", but Maggette is an even better comp for him. Maggette with a better shot and good defense is indeed a really valuable player.

 

[bowiac]

If you go to bbref, you can select the player, then select his on/off numbers.

I assume the article is talking about the fact that the Celtics score 7 more points/100 when Tatum is on the bench, and perhaps that they have a .535 eFG compared to .471.

The difficulty in on/off alone is that it doesn't account for rotations, etc.

I'm an on/off (or plus/minus really) believer, but in small samples, it is definitely noisier than just looking at box-score stats because of the issues with rotations and opposition rotations. You have all the usual variance issues from just shot-making, combined with the additional noise from rotations on both teams. Whatever benefit you get from capturing non-box score data is swamped by that added noise.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Scottie Pippen is light years better than Jaylen Brown will ever be as a playmaker.

When Pippen was at Jaylen's stage he was playing against Harding and University of the Ozarks while still being a year away from putting up 8/4/2 in 20 mpg as a Bull so I don't know where the ceiling is but I'm pretty certain that Jaylen has much more to go. Having said that I agree that Jaylen's strength is not in his playmaking but the fact that his name is even mentioned with one of the best all-around players the game has ever seen isn't nothing.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

When Pippen was at Jaylen's stage he was playing against Harding and University of the Ozarks while still being a year away from putting up 8/4/2 in 20 mpg as a Bull so I don't know where the ceiling is but I'm pretty certain that Jaylen has much more to go. Having said that I agree that Jaylen's strength is not in his playmaking but the fact that his name is even mentioned with one of the best all-around players the game has ever seen isn't nothing.

To be fair, it's one poster on SoSH that mentioned his name alongside Scottie Pippen. Usually the name I see associated with Jaylen Brown is Jimmy Butler. I think that's a decent comp but I think Corey Maggette is a better one. Someone else said it up above, but a lot of Jaylen's game is just putting his head down and driving to the lane. That's Corey Maggette to a tee. Maggette was also never a great passer but he improved over time to where he was at least "passable." Their rate stats are pretty similiar too. The one big difference in their offensive game is Maggette actually hit 82% of his FTs, but Jaylen should offset some of that by being the better 3 point shooter, assuming he's closer to a 70% FT shooter and not 60.

I just don't see the Pippen comparison myself. Even when he put up 8/4/2 in 20 mpg, his assist rate was double what Jaylen Brown's is. His steal and block rate are double Jaylen's too, even in Pippen's rookie season. I don't see Jaylen Brown ever being as well rounded a player as Scottie Pippen, even if he somehow ends up better than Scottie.

 

[Devizier]

A few highlight plays aside, Jaylen is not a great finisher. He appears to telegraph his moves cause defenders are able to react pretty easily to him. He's aggressive as hell, which I like, but his offense is very unpolished.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

To be fair, it's one poster on SoSH that mentioned his name alongside Scottie Pippen. Usually the name I see associated with Jaylen Brown is Jimmy Butler. I think that's a decent comp but I think Corey Maggette is a better one. Someone else said it up above, but a lot of Jaylen's game is just putting his head down and driving to the lane. That's Corey Maggette to a tee. Maggette was also never a great passer but he improved over time to where he was at least "passable." Their rate stats are pretty similiar too. The one big difference in their offensive game is Maggette actually hit 82% of his FTs, but Jaylen should offset some of that by being the better 3 point shooter, assuming he's closer to a 70% FT shooter and not 60.

I just don't see the Pippen comparison myself. Even when he put up 8/4/2 in 20 mpg, his assist rate was double what Jaylen Brown's is. His steal and block rate are double Jaylen's too, even in Pippen's rookie season. I don't see Jaylen Brown ever being as well rounded a player as Scottie Pippen, even if he somehow ends up better than Scottie.

Maggette was an atrocious defender, though — basically the anti-Pippen. Fortunately, I think there's next to zero chance Jaylen ends up a Maggette-bad defender under the steady guidance of Stevens. Anecdotally, he already shows a ton more effort on a that end than Maggs ever did.

Now if he can be 80% of Maggette on offense and 25% of Pippen on defense, that's a very good player.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Maggette was an atrocious defender, though — basically the anti-Pippen. Fortunately, I think there's next to zero chance Jaylen ends up a Maggette-bad defender under the steady guidance of Stevens. Anecdotally, he already shows a ton more effort on a that end than Maggs ever did.

Now if he can be 80% of Maggette on offense and 25% of Pippen on defense, that's a very good player.

He's already far better than Maggette ever was on defense.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Marcus Morris was sent to the Maine Claws today and may play on Wednesday against the Kings.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

A few highlight plays aside, Jaylen is not a great finisher. He appears to telegraph his moves cause defenders are able to react pretty easily to him. He's aggressive as hell, which I like, but his offense is very unpolished.

I don't disagree, but I will just note that Jaylen had 2 beautiful finishes in traffic on the fast break tonight against the Spurs.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

This team is incredibly good on defense. How much better would they be with Hayward?

 

[sezwho]

This team is incredibly good on defense. How much better would they be with Hayward?

Its hard not to think the Celtics would be a better team overall (particularly on offense), but I'm not sure they would be much better on defense.

His minutes are being picked up by teammates playing some good defense

 

[Sprowl]

I don't disagree, but I will just note that Jaylen had 2 beautiful finishes in traffic on the fast break tonight against the Spurs.

Brown also showed off his left-hand dribble (smooth, at first glance) and finish (1 out of 2, the second telegraphed and slow to develop). He seems to have gotten the urge from the coaching staff to put the ball on the floor, rather than settling for the jumper.

 

[reggiecleveland]

This team looks really good. This may be my lowered expectations after Hayward got hurt, but they look better than last year. The D is good, and they are rebounding way better. They are getting some legit center play from Baynes and Theis, so far at least. Horford looks like world beater, and meshes with Kyrie well.MArcus Morris may be getting less burn than he hoped, with Al looking so good plaaying 4, with the big fellas taking C. Rozier has strong running the second unit. Tatum seems to be able to fill a gap on the boards. Best of all, to me at least, is Kyrie seem to be letting things come to him.

As for Brown. He can get to the paint off the square up, and is already taking his time and simply rising up for the short J, more often than last year. With experience, his ability to penetrate could be a real plus, as he figures out angles, and finds shooters better. He is such a young guy and still maturing physically he is probably surprising himself with what he can do.

 

[Imbricus]

One thing that's impressed me about Brown this year is that he appears to have much better control over his body, and that's a key thing when you're as athletic as he is. When he shoots, there's often a little hang time; he's not so rushed. And on defense, on one play last night, you could see his man trying to fake him off his feet multiple times, but he kept recovering. Last year he would've jumped four feet in the air and the guy would've either shot and picked up the foul or blown by him. He's learning fast.

 

[DJnVa]

BEST RECORD IN THE NBA BABY!!!!

 

[DJnVa]

Kyrie was on a podcast with Geno Auriemma & Sue Bird (they all share the same birthday) and revealed a few things: https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2017/10/31/5-things-we-learned-about-kyrie-irving-from-his-conversation-with-geno-auriemma

He credits the movie Whiplash as a turning point for him.

 

[DourDoerr]

One of the things that strikes me about Jaylen is that he seems to be at a stage where he's still processing his offense. Right now, the game is still fast because he's trying to apply new learned skills and info. He was pretty raw coming out of college so he's still at the stage where he's learning what will work for him at this level. I expect the passing to improve once he's figured out how/when to drive, how/when to shoot. One thing at a time.

 

[Jimbodandy]

One of the things that strikes me about Jaylen is that he seems to be at a stage where he's still processing his offense. Right now, the game is still fast because he's trying to apply new learned skills and info. He was pretty raw coming out of college so he's still at the stage where he's learning what will work for him at this level. I expect the passing to improve once he's figured out how/when to drive, how/when to shoot. One thing at a time.

I agree with this.

He seems a lot better on defense, while still imperfect. And he's much more under control while driving. Sure it would be nice if his passing IQ went through the roof and his shot was elite also, but improvement is improvement.

 

[reggiecleveland]

One of the things that strikes me about Jaylen is that he seems to be at a stage where he's still processing his offense. Right now, the game is still fast because he's trying to apply new learned skills and info. He was pretty raw coming out of college so he's still at the stage where he's learning what will work for him at this level. I expect the passing to improve once he's figured out how/when to drive, how/when to shoot. One thing at a time.

That is pretty much what I am saying. His first step is a luxury, and as he figures things out he will get a lot more easy hoops.

 

[joe dokes]

One of the things that strikes me about Jaylen is that he seems to be at a stage where he's still processing his offense. Right now, the game is still fast because he's trying to apply new learned skills and info. He was pretty raw coming out of college so he's still at the stage where he's learning what will work for him at this level. I expect the passing to improve once he's figured out how/when to drive, how/when to shoot. One thing at a time.

I think that while defense and offense at the pro level have to be learned, a lot (not all) of the slack on defense can be overcome by sheer effort. There are team concepts on defense, but offense is a much different beast.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Why would the Celtics want Okafor? He doesn't defend or rebound.


Assuming @JahlilOkafor did get a buyout, the #Celtics would be the most likely destination for the center.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

They do need some size and he can score inside. I'd be interested to see what Brad can do with him.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Why would the Celtics want Okafor? He doesn't defend or rebound.


Assuming @JahlilOkafor did get a buyout, the #Celtics would be the most likely destination for the center.

Sew up the market for Duke high lottery picks? I dunno, I guess if you really believe in the Brad-effect, he's a guy who can score off the bench at the very least. If you think focus and effort are a substantial part of his production issues, and that a change of scenery might motivate him, it's not a particularly expensive shot to take. I'm pretty skeptical, but he's still just 21. Ojeleye, who has a reputation as a crazy hard worker, played with him at Duke- I wonder what he thinks of Jah's issues.

 

[Cellar-Door]

If he costs nothing Okafor makes some sense. See if you can teach him some defense, he can score inside and while a bad rebounder he's about in line with what they got from their bigs last year. He's an upside bench big in the last roster spot.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Al Horford has been a maniac on defense this year.


More info here: http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2017/11/al_horfords_defense_has_been_m.html

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

I'm not sure who I'd even want Okafor to get playing time over, especially with Morris on his way back. He needs floor time to improve his skills to the point that he is either more usable as a player or valuable as an asset. In terms of deep front court depth I'd take him over Nader but Baynes and Theis are more than capable of holding down the C spot.

 

[Big John]

Want nothing to do with Okafor. He plays lazy defense like he's entitled. He would barely be an upgrade over Daniel Ochefu in Maine.

Daniel Theis is a better player, especially in Stevens' positionless system.

 

[nighthob]

Want nothing to do with Okafor. He plays lazy defense like he's entitled. He would barely be an upgrade over Daniel Ochefu in Maine.

Daniel Theis is a better player, especially in Stevens' positionless system.

This. He lost weight because of a degenerative knee condition, limiting his ability to be a low post scorer. Still has very little mobility and would need to learn a whole new way of playing to lengthen his NBA career. Hard pass.

 

[bowiac]

Agreed. Being the 3rd pick in the draft is ancient history at this point. To the extent there are any minutes to spare, I'd rather they go to someone from the d-league.