The 2015 MLB HOF Ballot Tracker

[Toe Nash]

[SIZE=13.63636302948px]Because someday a player will/should get 100% of the votes. This year that should be Pedro, and RJ. Larry Walker will probably never get in because he's short on hits, HR and RBI. Maybe the steroid free era will "elevate" his 383 and 1311, but his 2160 hits will always be seen as too few. Yes, .965 OPS lifetime was great, but his 1.044 in Denver before the humidor inflates his overall stat. Walker shouldn't get in and probably won't until some veteran's committee does it. Wasted vote, Beradino doesn't get it, IMO.[/SIZE]

Pedro and RJ already were left off ballots, so your point is totally invalid. His logic makes a lot of sense to me. Just like voting for a third-party candidate for president if you live in Massachusetts.
 
Also with so many voters, many of whom are stupid, and no clear criteria I kind of doubt anyone will ever get to 100%. But if not, why does anyone even care? The only percentages that matter are 75% and 10%.

 

[B H Kim]

Pedro was never going to get 100%, even without strategic votes like Berardino's.  And Jeter isn't going to do it either.  Even ignoring the voters who deliberately cast ballots to prevent any candidate from getting 100% (how else can you explain people like Ripken and Maddox not getting 100%?), there are probably several old school voters who don't think Pedro deserves to be a first-ballot hall-of-famer because his win total is too low. 

 

[Julius.R]

You're right.  I was speaking more generally about writers who do this, not just Beradino.  He did include Trammel, Mussina, and Walker who I don't believe belong in there, but the rest of his votes were good.
 
Do we really want Jeter to be the first unanimously elected guy?  Over Pedro??

 
Pedro was never going to get 100%, heck we were worried last year about him getting in this year. There will always be writers who find some reason, not enough wins, no MVP, my guy didn't make it, etc... If Jeter gets 100% I'll be amazed, sure he has his 'legacy' and the NY connection which will save him the embarrassment of missing out on the first ballot, but he isn't Cal Ripken, and he is only a tiny bit better than Trammel. Someone won't vote for him because of how long long Trammel has struggled getting votes. I consider Pedro the greatest pitcher ever and could care less if he doesn't get 100%, he will be in the hall, and that is all that matters.

 

[Infield Infidel]

There are more teams and more players than ever, there will only be more of a logjam in the future. There are twice as many teams as in the 50s, but they can still only vote for 10 players. There should probably be at least 15 spots. 
 
If one argument against increasing is having too long a ceremony, just have it over two days, or three days. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

If Pedro were somehow to miss induction by one vote, I'll be upset with the guy. Otherwise, not so much

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Tango has some analysis of early returns on his blog: http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/how-will-tim-raines-and-the-other-contenders-do-on-the-2015-hof-ballot
 
Short version: voters are abandoning the "lost cause" types like Mattingly and rallying behind some of the borderline people like Schilling and Raines. Decent chance at five inductees this summer (Smoltz, Biggio, Piazza, R. Johnson, P. Martinez) according to him.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

It's still a crime that Rock isn't in the HoF yet.  If he doesn't make the cut this year, he's off the ballot right?  I'd hope the Vets vote him in, but it would be nice to see him in there this year.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

It's still a crime that Rock isn't in the HoF yet.  If he doesn't make the cut this year, he's off the ballot right?  I'd hope the Vets vote him in, but it would be nice to see him in there this year.

 
I believe the rule change to ten years means he gets two more chances after this year, but someone can correct me if I'm wrong. Next year might be a decent shot for him if this surge is real - Ken Griffey would be the only slam dunk first-timer.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Pedro and RJ already were left off ballots, so your point is totally invalid. His logic makes a lot of sense to me. Just like voting for a third-party candidate for president if you live in Massachusetts.
 
Also with so many voters, many of whom are stupid, and no clear criteria I kind of doubt anyone will ever get to 100%. But if not, why does anyone even care? The only percentages that matter are 75% and 10%.

OK, 100% is just too difficult, maybe unattainable. I'll just vilify Berardino for picking a [SIZE=13.63636302948px]very good to excellent, but[/SIZE] at best a fringe HOF player to stump for (Walker). But then there is the principle of the thing. He only has one chance to vote for Pedro and RJ for HOF (hopefully), and he's NOT DOING IT. I can imagine people saying to him that didn't know any better 'it must be great to be able to vote for guys like that'. So, he says "I didn't". Maybe he figures any publicity over him is better than nothing. F him.

 

[DourDoerr]

I can understand why the writers insist on voting for, say, Trammel over Pedro so Trammel can stay on the ballot, but can't understand why the writers allow themselves to look ridiculous each time they allow a situation like this to exist.  It seems they should simply acknowledge the greater player and let the lesser player fall off the ballot.  It doesn't doom the player, as the Veterans Committee exists for this reason.  Voting for a lesser player distorts the process and invites confusion and politicking among the writers as well as ridicule from the public.
 
I'd guess it's the BBWA exercising some weird self-entitlement to be THE entity that elects a player along with the fear of losing control to another entity.  And/or there's also the fear of the Hall excising them from the process altogether.  In any case, it seems they should have some dignity and vote strictly on merit (in each writer's best judgement of course) and trust all the Hall's mechanisms to determine a player's inclusion.  Every time they vote for an inferior player over a better one, it's myopic and they've done the BBWA and the deserving player who's denied the vote a disservice.
 
The current system's Yea or Nay vote seems the best solution - it's certainly the simplest - but only if the writers acknowledge they're only part of the process and trust the entire process.

 

[charlieoscar]

From the Baseball Hall of Fame's website:
 
BBWAA Rules for Election
5. Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.
 
There are no standards for a player's record, except that Rule 6. says there will be no automatic elections based on batting .400 for one year, pitching a perfect game, or similar outstanding achievements.
 
There is also nothing that says how much weight should be placed on any of the six factors in Rule 5.
 
Because of Rule 5, there are a number of problems in deciding who belongs in the Hall of Fame. From strictly the viewpoint of a player's record, voters are confronted with (in no particular order):
 
1. An ever-expanding player base.
---a. If you assume that the very greatest were the first elected, then the next year the electees were almost the very greatest. The bottom line drops. Eventually, the initial very greatest might be replaced by even greater players, so the spread increases.
 
2. Old and young voters
---a. You have some of the older voters who base their selections on the stars they grew up covering.
 
---b. You have young writers who might not have seen most of the career of some of the players up for election.
 
3. Methods of evaluation
---a. You also have a change in methods of player evaluation: sabermetrics. Some voters (mostly younger) use them; some (mostly older) do not. One problem with the use of sabermetrics is that you cannot always apply them to earlier players because the needed data is not available.
 
One example of using stats (that undoubtedly will be controversial) is to look at Parisian Bob (218-99/2.83, 2828.2 IP, 1.158 WHIP, 40 wind teice, 30 wins once) versus Pedro el Grande (219-100/2.93, 2827.1 IP, 1.054 WHIP, 23 wins once, 20 wins once). Parisian Bob will never make the Hall of Fame as he only played nine years. They played in very different eras but it does show something that happens: there gets to be a feeling among some voters that since one player is in, the other player with nearly identical stats should also be in.

 

[cannonball 1729]

I can understand why the writers insist on voting for, say, Trammel over Pedro so Trammel can stay on the ballot, but can't understand why the writers allow themselves to look ridiculous each time they allow a situation like this to exist.  It seems they should simply acknowledge the greater player and let the lesser player fall off the ballot.  It doesn't doom the player, as the Veterans Committee exists for this reason.  Voting for a lesser player distorts the process and invites confusion and politicking among the writers as well as ridicule from the public.
 
 

 
The Veteran's Committee hasn't voted in a living player since Bill Mazeroski in 2001, and there's no indication that that's anywhere close to changing.  If I were a BBWAA voter, I would absolutely not count on the Veteran's Committee to do anything.

 

[amfox1]

Tango has some analysis of early returns on his blog: http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/how-will-tim-raines-and-the-other-contenders-do-on-the-2015-hof-ballot
 
Short version: voters are abandoning the "lost cause" types like Mattingly and rallying behind some of the borderline people like Schilling and Raines. Decent chance at five inductees this summer (Smoltz, Biggio, Piazza, R. Johnson, P. Martinez) according to him.

 
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/the_2015_hof_ballot_collecting_gizmo/P800

Updated: Jan 3:  1:15 ~ 119 Full Ballots ~ (20.8% of vote ~ based on last year) ~ As usual…BBWAA ballot digging is welcome!
99.2 - R. Johnson 
98.3 - P. Martinez
89.9 - Smoltz
84.0 - Biggio
78.9 - Piazza
————————————
69.7 - Bagwell
65.5 - Raines
57.1 - Schilling
43.7 - Mussina
42.0 - Bonds
41.2 - Clemens
 

Piazza may end up on the wrong side of the vote this year, but would be a lock next year with Griffey, Hoffman and Edmonds.

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
 
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/the_2015_hof_ballot_collecting_gizmo/P800

Piazza may end up on the wrong side of the vote this year, but would be a lock next year with Griffey, Hoffman and Edmonds.
 

 
Edmonds? If anything, Piazza, Raines, Schilling and Bagwell all deserve to go in before considering Jim Edmonds

 

[BoSox Rule]

It's kind of amazing how the perception of Smoltz is so different than that of Mussina and Schilling.

 

[Marbleheader]

It's kind of amazing how the perception of Smoltz is so different than that of Mussina and Schilling.

TBS

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Big names entering the ballot in the next few years:
 
2016: Griffey (in), Hoffman (probably not a first-ballot guy but will probably get in eventually), Edmonds (maybe a case for him, probably won't ever make it)
2017: Ivan Rodriguez (in - or maybe not, see below), Vlad Guerrero (in, maybe not first ballot, but will make it), Manny Ramirez (not getting in via the BBWAA unless something changes), Jorge Posada (people will make a case for him), Magglio Ordonez (no), JD Drew (no)
2018: Chipper Jones (in), Jim Thome (in), Scott Rolen (will have a lot of support, but probably won't make it in for a while), Andruw Jones (nope), Johan Santana (might get some support but probably no), Chris Carpenter (no), Johnny Damon (will get some support, but probably won't ever make it), Omar Vizquel (doesn't deserve it but writers seem really psyched to vote for him so he might make it anyway)
2019: Mariano Rivera (in), Roy Halladay (will get a lot of support, not sure if he'll make it), Todd Helton (see previous), Andy Pettitte (see previous), Lance Berkman (probably not)
2020: Jeter (duh)... who else is retiring?
 
Note that these are (mostly) not my opinions on how deserving they are, just how I think the writers will vote.

 

[Just a bit outside]

I don't think Pudge Rodriguez is in with the steroid rumors that are out there.

 

[santadevil]

I don't think Pudge Rodriguez is in with the steroid rumors that are out there.

I must have been living under a rock, but I don't recall those for Ivan.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I don't think Pudge Rodriguez is in with the steroid rumors that are out there.

 
Maybe not. It does seem like voters are softening towards those who are caught up in rumors rather than something more substantive, as shown in the recent upswing in votes for Piazza and Bagwell, but we won't really know until the final tally comes in.

 

[santadevil]

 
Maybe not. It does seem like voters are softening towards those who are caught up in rumors rather than something more substantive, as shown in the recent upswing in votes for Piazza and Bagwell, but we won't really know until the final tally comes in.

I went searching after I posted.
I forgot he was mentioned by Canseco.

Hardballtalk had a small article a couple years back too. http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/19/will-the-bbwaa-keep-pudge-rodriguez-out-of-the-hall-of-fame-only-god-knows/

 

[Spacemans Bong]

Smoltz has two things in his favor: better with the media than either (Mussina and Schilling are both considered assholes for different reasons), and an easy narrative. Mussina was the long-time Yankee who never actually won a ring. Schilling kind of flew under the radar until his mid-30s with the Diamondbacks, where he was always considered second banana to Johnson. Smoltz was the only guy who was there for the ENTIRE Braves run.
 
Plus he's got that Cy Young starter + elite closer notoriety, even if he won his Cy in pretty much the one year that Maddux or Glavine weren't better than him.

 

[E5 Yaz]

2018: Omar Vizquel (doesn't deserve it but writers seem really psyched to vote for him so he might make it anyway)

 
I'm curious as to why you feel he doesn't deserve it.

 

[Toe Nash]

 
I'm curious as to why you feel he doesn't deserve it.

82 career OPS+?
 
He was a great fielder for a long time but a notch below the best fielders. If you're not going to hit you need to have a case as among the best fielders ever, and Vizquel wasn't quite there.
 
Vizquel amassed 133 TZR over his career, Ozzie Smith had 239 in fewer games (and for comparison Ozzie had an 87 OPS+).
 
I don't think it's particularly close.

 

[E5 Yaz]

According to the tracker, Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News is the second acknowledged voter who didn't have Pedro on his ballot
 
http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-rangers/headlines/20150103-grant-only-thing-hof-voters-can-be-sure-of-is-fans-will-be-critical-of-their-ballots.ece

 

[MetSox1]

According to the tracker, Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News is the second acknowledged voter who didn't have Pedro on his ballot
 
http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-rangers/headlines/20150103-grant-only-thing-hof-voters-can-be-sure-of-is-fans-will-be-critical-of-their-ballots.ece

And maybe the crazyest ballot yet. Only voted for 9 guys so he had space for pedro. Voted for smoltz so he doesnt have a problem with pitchers. I think his colors show thru with his voting for Mattingly and not including pedro. May he be buried by hatemail.

 

[SoxLegacy]

Not only did Gosselin leave Pedro off his ballot, he had an empty slot--he only voted for 9 players. What's the point of that?

 

[soxhop411]

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

 
I would bet that a large portion of those that voted for Mussina and Schilling also voted for Smoltz. But the difference comes from the old school mouth breathers that don't or won't look at advanced stats. They see a better ERA form Smoltz, a Cy Young, similar win totals to Schilling but 150+ saves, etc. 

Haha, calling someone who hurts Schilling a mouth breather is funny.

 

[EricFeczko]

Big names entering the ballot in the next few years:
 
2016: Griffey (in), Hoffman (probably not a first-ballot guy but will probably get in eventually), Edmonds (maybe a case for him, probably won't ever make it)
2017: Ivan Rodriguez (in - or maybe not, see below), Vlad Guerrero (in, maybe not first ballot, but will make it), Manny Ramirez (not getting in via the BBWAA unless something changes), Jorge Posada (people will make a case for him), Magglio Ordonez (no), JD Drew (no)
2018: Chipper Jones (in), Jim Thome (in), Scott Rolen (will have a lot of support, but probably won't make it in for a while), Andruw Jones (nope), Johan Santana (might get some support but probably no), Chris Carpenter (no), Johnny Damon (will get some support, but probably won't ever make it), Omar Vizquel (doesn't deserve it but writers seem really psyched to vote for him so he might make it anyway)
2019: Mariano Rivera (in), Roy Halladay (will get a lot of support, not sure if he'll make it), Todd Helton (see previous), Andy Pettitte (see previous), Lance Berkman (probably not)
2020: Jeter (duh)... who else is retiring?
 
Note that these are (mostly) not my opinions on how deserving they are, just how I think the writers will vote.

Why do you think Andruw Jones has no chance ("nope") with the writers? I realize that he collapsed after he turned 30, but he's got very good HOF-worthy career stats for a centerfielder, and he doesn't have roid issues: (434 HR, 152 SB, plus defense before 2007, 67.6 fWAR, 111 wRC+). Especially when you list two 1Bs with better rate stats but weaker counting stats (Helton and Berkman) as "unsure".

 

[Average Reds]

I must have been living under a rock, but I don't recall those for Ivan.

The case against him not being a user was hurt when baseball introduced testing and I-Rod promptly dropped a ton of weight and lost his power.

Still one of the greatest defensive catchers in the game.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Why do you think Andruw Jones has no chance ("nope") with the writers? I realize that he collapsed after he turned 30, but he's got very good HOF-worthy career stats for a centerfielder, and he doesn't have roid issues: (434 HR, 152 SB, plus defense before 2007, 67.6 fWAR, 111 wRC+). Especially when you list two 1Bs with better rate stats but weaker counting stats (Helton and Berkman) as "unsure".

 
While I admittedly didn't factor in the gradual demographic shift among Hall voters, how many of them do you think look at Fangraphs' WAR, let alone wRC+? Ultimately, narrative carries a lot of weight with these folks, and the narrative of Jones's career is a guy who, great as he was, had a reputation for dogging it and who cratered right after signing a huge deal, and I think too many of them still think of the older Jones lumbering in the outfield for the Yankees and then signing in Japan. Unless I'm forgetting someone, there haven't been too many position players elected within the last 15-20 years or so who've had cases based on short but impressive peaks (pitchers, maybe, but not hitters) other than Puckett (which was a unique case). I'm thinking guys like Murphy and Mattingly who hung around the ballot but never really got especially close to election. And it also seems like high HR totals aren't indicative of Hall electability anymore, even among those who aren't under steroid suspicion.
 
Re: Smoltz/Schilling/Mussina, seems like a lot of people are voting for Smoltz because he had those years as a great closer in addition to the years as a great starter, which I personally don't understand. Aren't they basically giving him extra credit for getting hurt?

 

[EricFeczko]

 
While I admittedly didn't factor in the gradual demographic shift among Hall voters, how many of them do you think look at Fangraphs' WAR, let alone wRC+? Ultimately, narrative carries a lot of weight with these folks, and the narrative of Jones's career is a guy who, great as he was, had a reputation for dogging it and who cratered right after signing a huge deal, and I think too many of them still think of the older Jones lumbering in the outfield for the Yankees and then signing in Japan. Unless I'm forgetting someone, there haven't been too many position players elected within the last 15-20 years or so who've had cases based on short but impressive peaks (pitchers, maybe, but not hitters) other than Puckett (which was a unique case). I'm thinking guys like Murphy and Mattingly who hung around the ballot but never really got especially close to election. And it also seems like high HR totals aren't indicative of Hall electability anymore, even among those who aren't under steroid suspicion.
 
Re: Smoltz/Schilling/Mussina, seems like a lot of people are voting for Smoltz because he had those years as a great closer in addition to the years as a great starter, which I personally don't understand. Aren't they basically giving him extra credit for getting hurt?

Re: Smoltz, pretty much. Some may be dinging Schilling for those steroid rumors.
 
I understand that you are trying to get into the minds of irrational and idiotic sports writers, but if the narrative is that Andruw Jones is similar to murphy or mattingly then the narrative is just wrong. Don Mattingly was an above average 1B with a great 4 year peak  surrounded by a loaded offense. Dale Murphy was a centerfielder who had six great seasons, including a great 4 year peak, interspersed with a lot of garbage. His Braves made it to the postseason once, and the braves performed much better as a team when he was traded to the phillies. Jones was a great player for 11 seasons and contributed to an extremely successful Braves club in that time-span; 10 gold gloves, 6 seasons of 400+ putouts from CF, and a better slugger than mattingly or murphy by any metric.
 
To be honest, I never understood why people thought Mattingly or Murphy were HOFers in the first place. Neither had an amazing peak nor contributed to successfull clubs in their career, and neither peaked for very long.

In any case, I wouldn't be surprised if you are correct that Jones has no chance, but berkman might. However, apart from explanations regarding the sanity and intelligence of the common sports writer, I don't understand why.

 

[turnthe2]

Big names entering the ballot in the next few years:
 
2016: Griffey (in), Hoffman (probably not a first-ballot guy but will probably get in eventually), Edmonds (maybe a case for him, probably won't ever make it)
2017: Ivan Rodriguez (in - or maybe not, see below), Vlad Guerrero (in, maybe not first ballot, but will make it), Manny Ramirez (not getting in via the BBWAA unless something changes), Jorge Posada (people will make a case for him), Magglio Ordonez (no), JD Drew (no)
2018: Chipper Jones (in), Jim Thome (in), Scott Rolen (will have a lot of support, but probably won't make it in for a while), Andruw Jones (nope), Johan Santana (might get some support but probably no), Chris Carpenter (no), Johnny Damon (will get some support, but probably won't ever make it), Omar Vizquel (doesn't deserve it but writers seem really psyched to vote for him so he might make it anyway)
2019: Mariano Rivera (in), Roy Halladay (will get a lot of support, not sure if he'll make it), Todd Helton (see previous), Andy Pettitte (see previous), Lance Berkman (probably not)
2020: Jeter (duh)... who else is retiring?
 
Note that these are (mostly) not my opinions on how deserving they are, just how I think the writers will vote.

Santana won't be eligible for 2018 as he is not yet retired.

And Konerko retired this year also.........

 

[EricFeczko]

Santana won't be eligible for 2018 as he is not yet retired.

And Konerko retired this year also.........

Whether a player is retired has no bearing on eligibility. In fact, Jim Palmer tried to come back after being elected in 1990. From the rules:
 

 
3. Eligible Candidates -- Candidates to be eligible must meet the following requirements:
A. A baseball player must have been active as a player in the Major Leagues at some time during a period beginning fifteen (15) years before and ending five (5) years prior to election.
B. Player must have played in each of ten (10) Major League championship seasons, some part of which must have been within the period described in 3(A).
C. Player shall have ceased to be an active player in the Major Leagues at least five (5) calendar years preceding the election but may be otherwise connected with baseball.
D. In case of the death of an active player or a player who has been retired for less than five (5) full years, a candidate who is otherwise eligible shall be eligible in the next regular election held at least six (6) months after the date of death or after the end of the five (5) year period, whichever occurs first.
E. Any player on Baseball's ineligible list shall not be an eligible candidate.

Santana last pitched in 2012 in the MLB, unless he pitches in MLB in 2015 or 2016, he'll be up for eligibility. Manny Ramirez is in a similar position, having played minor league ball with the cubs in 2014.
 
Good catch on Konerko, but I doubt he is in the conversation for HOF.

 

[amfox1]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmkBNPY405WAdFBOUVBhbjNRZjYzbWI2d201bm0tSmc&usp=sharing#gid=16
 
134 Ballots (approx. 23.5% based on last year's votes)
99.2 - R. Johnson 
98.5 - P. Martinez
88.1 - Smoltz
80.6 - Biggio
79.8 - Piazza
————————————
67.2 - Bagwell
67.2 - Raines
 
(includes all ESPN-related votes)

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

Big names entering the ballot in the next few years:
 
2016: Griffey (in), Hoffman (probably not a first-ballot guy but will probably get in eventually), Edmonds (maybe a case for him, probably won't ever make it)
2017: Ivan Rodriguez (in - or maybe not, see below), Vlad Guerrero (in, maybe not first ballot, but will make it), Manny Ramirez (not getting in via the BBWAA unless something changes), Jorge Posada (people will make a case for him), Magglio Ordonez (no), JD Drew (no)
2018: Chipper Jones (in), Jim Thome (in), Scott Rolen (will have a lot of support, but probably won't make it in for a while), Andruw Jones (nope), Johan Santana (might get some support but probably no), Chris Carpenter (no), Johnny Damon (will get some support, but probably won't ever make it), Omar Vizquel (doesn't deserve it but writers seem really psyched to vote for him so he might make it anyway)
2019: Mariano Rivera (in), Roy Halladay (will get a lot of support, not sure if he'll make it), Todd Helton (see previous), Andy Pettitte (see previous), Lance Berkman (probably not)
2020: Jeter (duh)... who else is retiring?
 
Note that these are (mostly) not my opinions on how deserving they are, just how I think the writers will vote.

 
Hasn't officially retired yet, but Ichiro in 2020?

 

[foulkehampshire]

 Manny Ramirez is in a similar position, having played minor league ball with the cubs in 2014.
 
 

 
I wonder if prolonging his organized baseball career is in part an effort to rehab his image. By the time he's eligible he may have enough goodwill to make it in. Steroids aside, there are so few hitters that compare to Manny Ramirez. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

Updated: Jan 4:  10:35 ~ 146 Full Ballots ~ (25.6% of vote ~ based on last year)
99.3 - R. Johnson 
97.9 - P. Martinez
87.7 - Smoltz
82.2 - Biggio
77.4 - Piazza
————————————
66.4 - Bagwell
66.4 - Raines
***
Past the quarter-pole. The top three seem safe. Biggio probably is as well. Piazza hanging on, but Bagwell and Raines appear to have plateaued 

 

[ItOnceWasMyLife]

That'll be great news for the Rock if he can stay in the 60's.  That's a big increase for him and he's running out of time.

 

[E5 Yaz]

That'll be great news for the Rock if he can stay in the 60's.  That's a big increase for him and he's running out of time.

 
Agreed. Especially if the vote spike gets more voters to take another look at his candidacy next year

 

[Dan Murfman]

ESPN has 17 voters. Here is a link to how they voted. All 17 voted for Pedro & Randy Johnson.
 
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12118585/craig-biggio-randy-johnson-pedro-martinez-mike-piazza-tim-raines-john-smoltz-elected-espn-2015-baseball-hall-fame-ballot

 

[Spacemans Bong]

Fuck Howard Bryant with a rusty spoon for his ballots. It doesn't even make sense anymore - he won't vote for anybody from the steroid era, but two pitchers are OK.
 
If we all band together and buy his book, would he agree to stop voting? That's where this is coming from. 

 

[amfox1]

150 Ballots and Piazza down to 76.7%.  It's going to be nip-and-tuck for him.

 

[glennhoffmania]

I was reading about some of the candidates and how Sheffield may not even make the 5% cutoff because of PEDs.  But on paper he's a HOFer, right?  If so, how do writers vote for Bonds or Clemens but not vote for Sheffield?

 

[amfox1]

I was reading about some of the candidates and how Sheffield may not even make the 5% cutoff because of PEDs.  But on paper he's a HOFer, right?  If so, how do writers vote for Bonds or Clemens but not vote for Sheffield?

 
His stats scream yes; to me, however, he feels like he belongs in the Hall of the Very Good.  He's a real victim of the 10-vote limit, as he;s at risk of falling off the ballot in his first year of balloting.

 

[Wake's knuckle]

He was also a wretched, wretched defensive player, IIRC. Baseball-reference has him at +277 runs with the bat, not bad, but his Total Zone Fielding Numbers have him giving more than half of that back.

 

[foulkehampshire]

 
His stats scream yes; to me, however, he feels like he belongs in the Hall of the Very Good.  He's a real victim of the 10-vote limit, as he;s at risk of falling off the ballot in his first year of balloting.

 
His was tremendous, but he's arguably in the same class defensively (all-world terrible) as Manny, with a slightly lesser bat. Couple that with personality issues, PED's, and dogging it early in his career with Milwaukee - I honestly don't know.

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
His stats scream yes; to me, however, he feels like he belongs in the Hall of the Very Good.  He's a real victim of the 10-vote limit, as he;s at risk of falling off the ballot in his first year of balloting.

 
He's at risk of falling off the ballot because of PEDs though.  He'd be the only 500 HR guy not in the HOF other than Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, and Palmeiro.  His oWAR is 35th best of all time (B-Ref).  He walked more than he struck out.  He also stole 253 bases.  The only knock on him on the field is defense.  It seems pretty clear to me that he's not getting votes because of PEDs, which seems unfair since other PED guys are getting votes.
 
Personally I don't think any of the PED guys should get in, but I was just curious why Sheffield seems to be getting affected by it more than some others.
 
Edit: I didn't include Thome and Manny in the 500 homer list because of eligibility.

 

[glennhoffmania]

He was also a wretched, wretched defensive player, IIRC. Baseball-reference has him at +277 runs with the bat, not bad, but his Total Zone Fielding Numbers have him giving more than half of that back.

 
 

 
His was tremendous, but he's arguably in the same class defensively (all-world terrible) as Manny, with a slightly lesser bat. Couple that with personality issues, PED's, and dogging it early in his career with Milwaukee - I honestly don't know.

 
These are both true, but when was the last time an OF was left out because of defense?  If Manny wasn't caught is there any doubt he would've gotten in despite his awful defense?