The 2015 MLB HOF Ballot Tracker

soxhop411

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As of today.

Updated 8:00 ~ 25 Full Ballots ~ (4.4% of vote ~ based on last year) ~ As usual…BBWAA ballot digging is welcome!

100 - P. Martinez
96.0 - R. Johnson
84.0 - Smoltz
80.0 - Biggio
80.0 - Piazza
————————————
72.0 - Bagwell
64.0 - Raines
56.0 - Clemens
56.0 - Bonds
56.0 - Schilling
28.0 - Trammell
24.0 - Mussina
16.0 - McGwire
16.0 - E. Martinez
16.0 - Lee Smith
12.0 - L. Walker
12.0 - Sheffield
8.0 - Sosa
8.0 - McGriff
8.0 - Kent
————————————-
4.0 - Garciaparra
4.0 - Pete Rose (McWrite-In)

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/the_2015_hof_ballot_collecting_gizmo
 

TheYaz67

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Had to go look at Randy Johnson's b-ref page to try and divine even one small reason one might not vote for a guy who struck out 4,875 batters, won over 300 games and 5 Cy Youngs.  Needless to say, it was a fruitless search.  Maybe because he led the league in walks three times?  Or because he always looked like a big meany, and beaned 190 batters?  Anyone have any other guesses?
 

DJnVa

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Some voters subscribe the theory that Player X who's currently on the ballot shouldn't get more voters than some current HOF'er so they leave them off, content in the fact that he'll have enough votes elsewhere, but at least he won't be unanimous or whatever.
 
I really hope Tim Raines gets some love.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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TheYaz67 said:
Had to go look at Randy Johnson's b-ref page to try and divine even one small reason one might not vote for a guy who struck out 4,875 batters, won over 300 games and 5 Cy Youngs.  Needless to say, it was a fruitless search.  Maybe because he led the league in walks three times?  Or because he always looked like a big meany, and beaned 190 batters?  Anyone have any other guesses?
This is not what the guy who left him off did, but with the loaded ballot this year, I could see a few folks doing a strategic non-vote for Johnson, who's obviously going to get in, so they can instead give that spot to a guy like Mussina who might fall off the ballot this year.
 

TomRicardo

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Danny_Darwin said:
This is not what the guy who left him off did, but with the loaded ballot this year, I could see a few folks doing a strategic non-vote for Johnson, who's obviously going to get in, so they can instead give that spot to a guy like Mussina who might fall off the ballot this year.
 
He is the second best pitcher on the ballot.
 
Someone needs to leave him off so he doesn't get as many votes as the SP with the best ERA+ with 1000 IP in baseball history.
 
Literally Pedro Martinez is the Babe Ruth of pitching.
 

snowmanny

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I love Pedro, but if he was the Babe Ruth of pitching he would have led the league in OPS two years before he led the league in ERA.

Anyway, Shaughnessy has a good statistical reason for leaving Biggio off his ballot:

"Biggio missed by only two votes last year. He has 3,000 hits, four gold gloves, and almost 300 homers. I would put him in the Hall of Very Good (only one 200-hit season), but that wont matter. Hes going in. This year."
 

mjm3773

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snowmanny said:
I love Pedro, but if he was the Babe Ruth of pitching he would have led the league in OPS two years before he led the league in ERA.
Anyway, Shaughnessy has a good statistical reason for leaving Biggio off his ballot:
"Biggio missed by only two votes last year. He has 3,000 hits, four gold gloves, and almost 300 homers. I would put him in the Hall of Very Good (only one 200-hit season), but that wont matter. Hes going in. This year."
Quite frankly, that's a horrible excuse of a statistical reason to keep Biggio off the ballot. Because you know who has ZERO 200 hit seasons?

Ted Williams!

Although CHB might put him only in the HoVG, would anybody reasonably leave Ted out of the HoF? Of course not.

Now, that being said, if I had a vote, and I was voting strictly for what I felt were the 10 best players (no strategic voting), Biggio wouldn't be on my ballot, although he's well above the line (Bonds, Clemens, Johnson, Piazza, Pedro, Bagwell, Schilling, Mussina, Trammell, Smoltz; Raines, Sheffield, Biggio, McGwire, Edgar, Walker, Sosa, and Kent also over the line).
 

Spacemans Bong

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I could understand not voting for Biggio on the basis that he's gonna get in, if I hadn't seen people do that for several years only for Biggio not to get in.
 
Alan Trammell, now that's a wasted vote. I think Tram's a Hall of Famer, and I suppose one could argue a higher vote total will maybe help swing a Veteran's Committee member or two to his side (and therefore get him in), but he is plainly not going to be inducted within the 15 year window. I'd rather throw that vote to somebody like Mussina, or Edgar Martinez, or Larry Walker, or Curt Schilling (who is doing much worse in voting than I thought he would).
 
Edit: Oh yeah, and Tim Raines, who lost more out of the Hall lowering the number of years a player could be on a ballot more than everybody else combined.
 

MetSox1

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Having a hell of a time tracking it down. I'm sure we'll find out tomorrow but I'm a bit impatient to name names
 

soxhop411

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MetSox1 said:
Having a hell of a time tracking it down. I'm sure we'll find out tomorrow but I'm a bit impatient to name names
Surprisingly I cannot find who did not vote for him either.
 

Leskanic's Thread

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I know I've said this on here before, but I'm girding myself for five years from now, when the talk will be about how Derek Jeter deserves to be the first unanimous inductee. And how much it will bother me when, whatever comes out of that, Jeter inevitably gets a higher percentage than Pedro did when he got in.
 
I hadn't begun prepping myself for Pedro not even getting in on his first ballot. I've got some work to do.
 

soxhop411

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Does anyone have a list of all the HOF voters? Might be easier to find the voter that way. If not we might not find out who left him off as I do not believe voters are required to publish their ballot .
 

E5 Yaz

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PeteAbeHere are the names checked off on my Baseball Hall of Fame ballot: Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, and John Smoltz.
 

Merkle's Boner

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E5 Yaz said:
PeteAbeHere are the names checked off on my Baseball Hall of Fame ballot: Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, and John Smoltz.[/size]
That's an unexpectedly solid ballot.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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Can't argue with a single pick on that ballot. To show how deep it is right now he has 10, all deserving and no Craig Biggio for example.
 

mabrowndog

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I worked for Garry Brown -- in my first-ever writing job as a HS sports stringer. I was 15, and he had graying hair back then.
 
I'm 50 now, which tells you how long Garry Brown has been around. He was the sports editor of the Springfield Morning Union, Springfield Daily News (the former afternoon paper; yes, they used to publish twice a day) and Sunday Republican for close to four decades. And, not that it matters in this debate, but the spiteful drivel over at BTF mandates that I defend his character: He's also of the nicest and kindest people on the planet. I can assure you that, unlike the Murray Chasses of the world, agendas are not his thing.
 
Yes, he's old school. But he's also old. I'm 99.999% sure he believes Randy Johnson is a HOFer. And I'm 99.999% sure he simply forgot, and he likely isn't putting a tremendous amount of thought or analysis into the process. Last year he voted for Jack Morris but not Frank Thomas. He also voted for Schilling last year, but left him off this year.
 
I feel like the guy who has to tell his grandfather that, for his own good and the good of society, it's time to take the driver's license away.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
If Mike Piazza gets into the Hall this year and Jeff Bagwell doesn't, the universe is officially a horrible place. I mean, the one and only reasonable excuse not to vote for Bagwell is, to a roughly equal degree, a reason not to vote for Piazza. And there is no universe in which Bagwell was not clearly the better player of the two. So, WTF.
 

MakMan44

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Oppo said:
Sure, if you exclude the fact that piazza was a catcher.
WAR (which includes positional adjustment) gives Bagwell a pretty sizeable lead. 
 

mjm3773

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MakMan44 said:
WAR (which includes positional adjustment) gives Bagwell a pretty sizeable lead. 
A couple of things:

1. WAR is a counting stat. Because of the demands of the position, with the exception of the two Pudges, most catchers are effectively done around age 33-34. Dan Rosenhack over at the Hall of Merit at BTF researched the idea and found that over their careers, non-catcher position players normally have 58% more plate appearances over their careers than catchers. Piazza was effectively done after age 34.

If you don't account for this fact, you can never do a straight line comparison between catchers and non-catchers. Johnny Bench, generally regarded as the best ML catcher ever, has only 75 WAR. Every other position has at least one player, if not more, over 100.

2. I feel BBRef WAR seriously underestimates Piazza, mainly his dWAR. Ys, he had a well below average arm. But it shouldn't affect him as much as BWAR does because he played in an era where a stolen base had perhaps less value than any other era in baseball history. Also he gets penalized for allowing for more than average passed balls despite the fact that he caught Tom Candiotti for most of his Dodger career.

Plus it seems that Piazza was good, if not excellent in the matters of catcher defense that are just beginning to be understood more, like pitch-framing, plate-blocking and game-calling. For example there have been conflicting studies on catcher's ERA, but Piaaza always had a lower ERA than his backups and his team's ERA got better when he arrived and worse when he left.

I have Piazza as inside my inner-circle with Bagwell the top 1b outside the inner-circle, but obviously deserving.
 

MakMan44

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Fair points. I was using fWAR but most of your point still stands. I think both players are both HOFers, which was all I was trying to show anyway.
 

mjm3773

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They definitely both do deserve it. I was as much addressing Savin's post as yours to show that there is a very logical argument to putting Piazza ahead of Bagwell (as well as the arguments vice versa).
 

E5 Yaz

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GordonEdes Gordon Edes
My Hall vote: Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Randy Johnson. Edgar Martinez, Pedro, Piazza, Raines, Schilling.
 
***
 
Biggest omission for Edes would seem to be Smoltz
 

flymrfreakjar

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E5 Yaz said:
GordonEdes Gordon Edes
My Hall vote: Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Randy Johnson. Edgar Martinez, Pedro, Piazza, Raines, Schilling.
 
***
 
Biggest omission for Edes would seem to be Smoltz
 
I'd guess he figures Smoltz is a no-brainer and he's trying to keep some folks from slipping off the ballot?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Now we have the first ballot to legitimately gripe about.  Less than 10 names picked AND ridiculous choices given who was not checked.  Delgado and McGriff but not Bagwell and/or Edgar Martinez?  No Biggio, Piazza or Raines?  No Schilling?
 
Goddamn waste of a ballot.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I'm fucking pumped to go to the HoF ceremony this year and watch Pedro get in.

Fucking awesome.
 

soxhop411

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The HEY, LOOK AT ME! Mike Berardino HOF Ballot (10): Biggio, Bagwell, Smoltz, Piazza, Mussina, E. Martinez, Raines, L. Walker, Schilling, Trammell.
 

jsinger121

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What a fucking idiot. Larry Walker and Trammell don't even deserve votes over Pedro and Johnson. This is why voters are a joke.
 

Spacemans Bong

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No, Juan Vene is the reason voters are a joke. Berardino voted for ten people qualified for the Hall of Fame, and he's right that Pedro and Johnson are going in. Marty Noble voted for Johnson, Pedro and Smoltz because he didn't want more than three people being inducted (and seemed to regard Jeff Kent as his 4th best candidate). That's a joke.
 

judyb

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Yes, assuming Berardino is sincere, I understand feeling compelled to try to keep players he considers deserving on the ballot longer over voting for players who will easily get in without his help.
 

Merkle's Boner

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I love that he gave Walker a vote over Pedro and Randy. Walker is not getting enough attention and if a vote from this guy gets people discussing his candidacy I'm all for it. Hopefully, the Hall changes the rules and allows someone to vote for both Walker and Pedro.
 

charlieoscar

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mjm3773 said:
Quite frankly, that's a horrible excuse of a statistical reason to keep Biggio off the ballot. Because you know who has ZERO 200 hit seasons?

Ted Williams!...
 
[SIZE=11.6666660308838px]Without addressing the pros or cons of Biggio's possible spot in the HoF, one does need to note that although he and Williams never had 200 hit seasons, TSW reached base 209 more times than Biggio in 2716 fewer plate appearances.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=11.6666660308838px]​Oh, and btw, I think it has been a long-standing practice for some writers to vote for favorite players, simply as a gesture. After all, the have ten votes. Maybe the Hall should cut down on the number of votes per ballot.[/SIZE]
 

Average Reds

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soxhop411 said:
The HEY, LOOK AT ME! Mike Berardino HOF Ballot (10): Biggio, Bagwell, Smoltz, Piazza, Mussina, E. Martinez, Raines, L. Walker, Schilling, Trammell.
 
 
We had a thread some years back and I quoted Philadelphia sportswriter Bill Conlin about his HOF voting philosophy.  It was the most insane thing I've ever read, talking about how "momentum" in terms of annual vote totals was a key factor in determining whether a player deserved support from Conlin and/or other voters.
 
It's easy to dismiss this as the rantings of a deceased pedophile lunatic, but it's instructive to note that Conlin was also a recent recipient (in 2011) of the J. G. Taylor Spink Award.  His thinking was/is reflective of the mentality of the BBWAA.
 
Nothing the BBWAA does should surprise anyone.
 

B H Kim

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I don't understand the antipathy for Berardino.  If he thinks that there are 12 deserving candidates, voting for 3-12 when he can be very confident that 1 and 2 will get more than enough votes from others is a perfectly reasonable approach.  He's not the problem, the 10-vote limit is the problem.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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charlieoscar said:
 
​Oh, and btw, I think it has been a long-standing practice for some writers to vote for favorite players, simply as a gesture. After all, the have ten votes. Maybe the Hall should cut down on the number of votes per ballot.
In years when there are not more than ten defensible candidates, I don't see why people get outraged over token votes for a no-shot guy who was nice to the reporter. Who cares?
 

Al Zarilla

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B H Kim said:
I don't understand the antipathy for Berardino.  If he thinks that there are 12 deserving candidates, voting for 3-12 when he can be very confident that 1 and 2 will get more than enough votes from others is a perfectly reasonable approach.  He's not the problem, the 10-vote limit is the problem.
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]Because someday a player will/should get 100% of the votes. This year that should be Pedro, and RJ. Larry Walker will probably never get in because he's short on hits, HR and RBI. Maybe the steroid free era will "elevate" his 383 and 1311, but his 2160 hits will always be seen as too few. Yes, .965 OPS lifetime was great, but his 1.044 in Denver before the humidor inflates his overall stat. Walker shouldn't get in and probably won't until some veteran's committee does it. Wasted vote, Beradino doesn't get it, IMO.[/SIZE]
 

Yaz4Ever

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Al Zarilla said:
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]Because someday a player will/should get 100% of the votes. This year that should be Pedro, and RJ. Larry Walker will probably never get in because he's short on hits, HR and RBI. Maybe the steroid free era will "elevate" his 383 and 1311, but his 2160 hits will always be seen as too few. Yes, .965 OPS lifetime was great, but his 1.044 in Denver before the humidor inflates his overall stat. Walker shouldn't get in and probably won't until some veteran's committee does it. Wasted vote, Beradino doesn't get it, IMO.[/SIZE]
Couldn't agree more.  If you want someone to get votes, feel free to use your column to wax poetic about them to get the conversation started.  Using your vote on Larry Walker is like voting for a third-party candidate you like but know has no shot of getting in.  You might let someone undeserving slip in and a deserving candidate to just miss (Biggio, Bagwell, Raines, for example).
 

Max Power

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Yaz4Ever said:
Couldn't agree more.  If you want someone to get votes, feel free to use your column to wax poetic about them to get the conversation started.  Using your vote on Larry Walker is like voting for a third-party candidate you like but know has no shot of getting in.  You might let someone undeserving slip in and a deserving candidate to just miss (Biggio, Bagwell, Raines, for example).
 
But he's not doing that at all. The ones he didn't vote for were Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson, who are getting in no matter how he voted.
 

Bigpupp

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There isn't a hall of 100 percent. I would love to see Pedro be the first unanimous choice, but it wasn't going to happen anyway. This approach doesn't work if a lot of writers do it, and yes he is taking a chance, but it isn't Beradino's fault the system sucks.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Max Power said:
 
But he's not doing that at all. The ones he didn't vote for were Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson, who are getting in no matter how he voted.
You're right.  I was speaking more generally about writers who do this, not just Beradino.  He did include Trammel, Mussina, and Walker who I don't believe belong in there, but the rest of his votes were good.
 
Do we really want Jeter to be the first unanimously elected guy?  Over Pedro??
 

Max Power

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It would 2uck if Jeter were the first unanimous selection, but there still may be a logjam by the time he comes up.
 
Yes, there's a chance that the most deserving candidate wouldn't make it if everyone voted like Beradino, but Hall of Fame voting isn't a one and done thing. Not having someone like Pedro or the Unit get in on the first ballot would cause such an uproar that the Hall would immediately change the rules and they'd get in the next year. Possibly unanimously.