The 2014 Draft Prep Thread

Snodgrass'Muff

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We often have a place to discuss the upcoming draft and some of the players the Sox may be able to snag with their early picks.  I'll start this one by linking to an OTM article about how the Sox have 16th largest spending pool this year, even though they have the second to last pick in the order.
 
http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/4/2/5574378/2014-mlb-draft-red-sox-budget?utm_source=overthemonster&utm_medium=nextclicks&utm_campaign=articlebottom
 
If Drew signs with a club before the deadline for compensation picks, that pool could get larger.
 
Here is the draft order: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2014/order.jsp
 

amfox1

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Rudy Pemberton said:
Nitpick, but they draft last in the first round. Because they won the fucking World Series.
 
This is incorrect.  The MLB draft order is based on record.  Here's a link to the MLB's official draft order.  The Red Sox currently pick 27th and 33rd.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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I'll be curious to see where Grant Holmes goes (he won't be around at the end of the round). I coached him for a few years when he was 13-14. I would think a list that early is based on 2013 velo, which was 94-95. He's up this spring, 98 in one game, 100 in another. 
 
He's solid as a rock so the consensus seems to be that he's done growing, but he's always had crazy velo back to when he was a kid. Here's a cool slo-mo vid.

Edit: And by coaching I mean the important stuff, like asking him if he was loose and telling him which game he was pitching.
 
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxhxY4f6Xiw
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Perfect Game's top 10 (April 16th)
 
 
The top 10:
 
1. Brady Aiken, lhp, Cathedral Catholic (Calif.) High School
2. Tyler Kolek, rhp, Shepherd (Texas) High School
3. Carlos Rodon, lhp, NC State
4. Jeff Hoffman, rhp, East Carolina
5. Alex Jackson, c/of, Rancho Bernardo (Calif.) High School
6. Tyler Beede, rhp, Vanderbilt
7. Aaron Nola, rhp, Louisiana State
8. Grant Holmes, rhp, Conway (S.C.) High School
9. Nicholas Gordon, ss/rhp, Olympia (Fla.) High School
10. Bradley Zimmer, of, San Francisco
 
 

Pilgrim

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Jeff Hoffman is getting TJ surgery, so he'll fall way out of the top 5. Seems like a great way to spend the extra pick.

Edit- actually, it seems pretty unlikely he would fall that far. Lucas Giolito got drafted 16th in a similar situation.
 

TheGoldenGreek33

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Real quick, some guys I like and in the Sox range.
  • Justus Sheffield, lhp, Tullahoma (Tenn.) HS: Polished, athletic; true 4-pitch mix w/outstanding feel for pitching. Vandy commit.
  • Nick Burdi, rhp, University of Louisville: FB up to 102, wipeout 87-91 slider; definite big-league reliever, could help out in 'pen immeadiately.
  • AJ Reed, 1b, University of Kentucky: Present plus power w/pot. for plus-plus, good approach, average hit tool; leads nation in HR, SLG, OPS in BBCOR-era.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Does anyone know what teams are leaning toward with Reed as far as his future?  In addition to the hitting resume, he's also the Friday night guy for Kentucky.
 
 
 
Reed leads college baseball in homers (20), slugging (.786) and OPS (1.272), owning more homers himself than 195 total schools in the nation. Reed also leads the SEC with his 8-2 record in 12 Friday-night starts, ranking among the SEC leaders in ERA (2.20) and innings pitched (82). Reed paces the SEC in RBI (62), while ranking fourth in the league in average, after entering last week leading the circuit in the triple-crown categories. Reed is seeking to become the first, and only other, triple-crown winner in the SEC since Rafael Palmeiro in 1984.
 

TheGoldenGreek33

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PaulinMyrBch said:
Does anyone know what teams are leaning toward with Reed as far as his future?  In addition to the hitting resume, he's also the Friday night guy for Kentucky.
 
 
Mets drafted him as a pitcher out of HS. Pretty foregone conclusion he's a hitter as a pro now.
 
edit-add: so obviously he has some arm strength, but there's little to no chance he moves off 1b.
 

TheGoldenGreek33

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John summed up Derek Hill very well. Top of the charts defender, plus-plus speed.
 
I'm happy to see the Sox are high on the lefty Mac Marshall as well. Guy really burst on the scene a year ago at a PG event in Ft. Myers against Venice HS, who might be the best team in the country. Struck out 12 in five innings. He's low-90s with the fastball, sweeping curveball and one of the best changeups in the prep ranks. Great athlete, runs a 6.6 60. About 6'2, 190. Would be very happy with that pick.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Here's a Jim Callis article on MLB from a month ago
 
Good info on Reed, Finnegan, and Holmes. Explains the Reed hitter versus pitcher projection. Sounds like its been an evolving projection up to the production at the plate this year.
 
Holmes has been up to 101 (both his top velo games this year came in colder weather), and the physical size projection is correct. Doubtful he's anything more than 6'1", but the heavier part is misleading. He's not soft at all, just built like a linebacker.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I love the idea of the Sox taking a big power bat in the first round this year. Thanks for the info on Reed. He's my early draft binky.
 

TheGoldenGreek33

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PG released its top 100 today. 25-40 guys:
 
25 Alex Blandino 3B JR L-R 6-0 190 Stanford Mountain View CA Athletics '11 (38)
26 Derek Hill OF SR R-R 6-2 180 Elk Grove Sacramento CA   Oregon
27 Erick Fedde RHP JR R-R 6-4 170 Nevada-Las Vegas Las Vegas NV Padres '11 (24)
28 A.J. Reed 1B/LHP JR L-L 6-2 255 Kentucky Terre Haute IN Mets '11 (25)
29 Michael Gettys OF SR R-R 6-2 220 Gainesville Gainesville GA   Georgia
30 Braxton Davidson OF SR L-L 6-3 215 T.C. Roberson Arden NC   North Carolina
31 Foster Griffin LHP SR R-L 6-5 190 The First Academy Orlando FL   Mississippi
32 Kodi Medeiros LHP SR L-L 6-0 180 Waiakea Hilo HI   Pepperdine
33 Nick Howard RHP/3B JR R-R 6-3 215 Virginia Olney MD Never drafted
34 Luke Weaver RHP JR R-R 6-2 170 Florida State DeLand FL Blue Jays '11 (19)
35 Luis Ortiz RHP SR R-R 6-3 220 Sanger Sanger CA   Fresno State
36 Jacob Bukauskas RHP SR R-R 6-1 185 Stone Bridge Ashburn VA   North Carolina
37 Derek Fisher OF JR L-R 6-3 210 Virginia Rexmont PA Rangers '11 (6)  
38 Matt Chapman 3B/SS JR R-R 6-2 215 Cal State Fullerton Trabuco Canyon CA Never drafted
39 Justus Sheffield LHP SR L-L 6-0 190 Tullahoma Tullahoma TN   Vanderbilt
40 Marcus Wilson OF SR R-R 6-3 175 J Serra Los Angeles CA   Arizona State
 

PaulinMyrBch

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TheGoldenGreek33 said:
PG released its top 100 today. 25-40 guys:
 
25 Alex Blandino 3B JR L-R 6-0 190 Stanford Mountain View CA Athletics '11 (38)
26 Derek Hill OF SR R-R 6-2 180 Elk Grove Sacramento CA   Oregon
27 Erick Fedde RHP JR R-R 6-4 170 Nevada-Las Vegas Las Vegas NV Padres '11 (24)
28 A.J. Reed 1B/LHP JR L-L 6-2 255 Kentucky Terre Haute IN Mets '11 (25)
29 Michael Gettys OF SR R-R 6-2 220 Gainesville Gainesville GA   Georgia
30 Braxton Davidson OF SR L-L 6-3 215 T.C. Roberson Arden NC   North Carolina
31 Foster Griffin LHP SR R-L 6-5 190 The First Academy Orlando FL   Mississippi
32 Kodi Medeiros LHP SR L-L 6-0 180 Waiakea Hilo HI   Pepperdine
33 Nick Howard RHP/3B JR R-R 6-3 215 Virginia Olney MD Never drafted
34 Luke Weaver RHP JR R-R 6-2 170 Florida State DeLand FL Blue Jays '11 (19)
35 Luis Ortiz RHP SR R-R 6-3 220 Sanger Sanger CA   Fresno State
36 Jacob Bukauskas RHP SR R-R 6-1 185 Stone Bridge Ashburn VA   North Carolina
37 Derek Fisher OF JR L-R 6-3 210 Virginia Rexmont PA Rangers '11 (6)  
38 Matt Chapman 3B/SS JR R-R 6-2 215 Cal State Fullerton Trabuco Canyon CA Never drafted
39 Justus Sheffield LHP SR L-L 6-0 190 Tullahoma Tullahoma TN   Vanderbilt
40 Marcus Wilson OF SR R-R 6-3 175 J Serra Los Angeles CA   Arizona State
 
Nick Howard has binkie potential. He's UVa's closer. Pretty sure he projects as a pitcher even though he's playing third. Was UVa's Sunday starter (#3) in 2013, and also had 6 starts in the Cape League for Harwich last summer.
 

TheGoldenGreek33

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PaulinMyrBch said:
Nick Howard has binkie potential. He's UVa's closer. Pretty sure he projects as a pitcher even though he's playing third. Was UVa's Sunday starter (#3) in 2013, and also had 6 starts in the Cape League for Harwich last summer.
 
His move to UVA's closer role was out of team need, too—just one of the unfortunate parts about playing for a stacked team. MOTR guy, 3-pitch mix: 90-94 w/life, a hard 12-6 curveball and an improving changeup. Strong frame: 6'4, 215 lb... I don't know that there's a case against him being a starter at the pro level other than some arm action stiffness, so he'll definitely get a chance to go that route.
 

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My cousin's son - first cousin once removed? - is Sean Newcomb, the 6'5" lefty starter from the University of Hartford.  Should go mid-first round.  Has had between 20 and 30 scouts at every game he's pitched the last two years.  Throws 95 easy, tends to be a little wild though.  6-2 this year, 1.36 ERA, WHIP just  under 1.  84 ks in 79.1 IP, but has walked 33. 
 
Nice to be a big, hard throwing lefthander come draft day. 
 

LeftyTG

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TheGoldenGreek33 said:
 
His move to UVA's closer role was out of team need, too—just one of the unfortunate parts about playing for a stacked team. MOTR guy, 3-pitch mix: 90-94 w/life, a hard 12-6 curveball and an improving changeup. Strong frame: 6'4, 215 lb... I don't know that there's a case against him being a starter at the pro level other than some arm action stiffness, so he'll definitely get a chance to go that route.
I feel like I know a lot of the common acronyms, but MOTR is a new one for me.  Can you (or someone) educate me?
 

smokin joe wood

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I'll be at the Missouri Valley Conference tournament next week. Should get a good look at Kyle Freeland (Evansville), Casey Gillaspie (Wichita State) and Sam Coonrod (Southern Illinois). 
 
Not a '14 pick but Mike Matheny's son Tate plays for Missouri State and he's a stud.
 

TheGoldenGreek33

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smokin joe wood said:
I'll be at the Missouri Valley Conference tournament next week. Should get a good look at Kyle Freeland (Evansville), Casey Gillaspie (Wichita State) and Sam Coonrod (Southern Illinois). 
 
Jeremy Rhoades (Illinois State) and Cy Sneed (Dallas Baptist) are both in that same top-3 round mix, too. The valley has been great fun to watch this year, pitching wise.
 

smokin joe wood

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TheGoldenGreek33 said:
 
Jeremy Rhoades (Illinois State) and Cy Sneed (Dallas Baptist) are both in that same top-3 round mix, too. The valley has been great fun to watch this year, pitching wise.
 
The Missouri Valley has rebounded well this year. For anyone that is interested, the entire tournament is on ESPN3 next week. Games start at 9:00 AM ET and roll through the entire day Mon/Tue/Wed so could be good for watching at work. 
 

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My binky:
 

 
 
He cleared the 40 foot tall batters-eye wall in LC vs. Louisville Tuesday.   
 
 
 

smokin joe wood

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Detts said:
My binky:
 

 
 
He cleared the 40 foot tall batters-eye wall in LC vs. Louisville Tuesday.   
 
 
 
I produced the IU regional last year (guy pictured is Kyle Schwarber). Kid can definitely mash but he's pretty pudgy but he'll need some work to stay behind the plate. That entire IU team can mash. Dustin DeMuth and Sam Travis are studs. I'm hoping they get in the same region as Louisville to see those three kids go up against Nick Burdi's 99+ mph fastball.
 

TheGoldenGreek33

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He'll be long gone by 26, too. He's got the best bat in the class. Make what you will of his defense—I think he can stick—but that kind of lefthanded power is rare in today's game. He's a monster.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Watched Tyler Beede on TV last night against SC. He left after 8 handing his team a 3-2 lead but they couldn't hold on. He was impressive. Threw 120+ pitches, so the 9th was out of the question.
 

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Keith Law was one of the 30 scouts here watching Hartford LHP Sean Newcomb. He sat 93-94 with CB in the high 70s to low 80s and CH in the high 70's.  I asked Law where he thinks he'll go and he says definitely top-15 and maybe higher if they get into the NCAA's and he pitches well there against real good competition.  Newcomb looks like Jon Lester when he pitches because the movement on his stuff is nasty and he has similar build.  Seattle was the team that had the most people here today and they pick at #6 FWIW.
 
His final line was 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 K.
 

TheGoldenGreek33

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Boston Red Sox

First pick: 26

Bonus pool: $6.373M
 
System strength

In terms of sheer prospect depth, only the Houston Astros rival the Red Sox right now, with seven prospects making Law's top 100. They're particularly deep in the infield, with catcher Blake Swihart (No. 56), second baseman Mookie Betts (61) and third baseman Garin Cecchini all looking like regular contributors. There's quality and quantity on the mound, too, with Henry Owens (42) and Matt Barnes (89) all looking like quality starters who should be ready in the next few years, and 2013 first-rounder Trey Ball showing tons of projection as well.
System weaknesses
It's nitpicking, but the Red Sox don't have much in terms of upper-level outfield prospects now that Jackie Bradley Jr. is up in Boston, and if Xander Bogaerts were to need to move to third base permanently, they don't necessarily have a replacement shortstop in the system with former first-round pick Deven Marrero appearing to be nothing more than a utility infielder despite his defensive abilities.
 
Draft strategy
Outside of the Nationals, no club was hurt more by the new collective bargaining agreement, as Boston had absolutely no fear of going over the slot "recommendations" set forth. Still, Boston will likely take a best-player-available approach as long as GM Ben Cherington and scouting director Amiel Sawdaye are in charge. You won't see Boston reach for need.
Recent top picks

2013: Trey Ball, LHP, No. 07
2012: Deven Marrero, SS, No. 24
2011: Matt Barnes, RHP, No. 19
Notable No. 26 picks

1976: Allen Trammell, SS (70.4 WAR)
1977: Dave Henderson, OF (27.4 WAR)
1983: Dan Plesac, RHP (17.6 WAR)
Possible fits
Jacob Gatewood | SS, Clovis HS (Fresno, Calif.): Gatewood is very much a high-risk, high-reward player, but with 70 power and a chance to stick at shortstop, he could be pay huge dividends down the road.
Derek Fisher | OF, Virginia: Fisher has seen his stock drop due to a hamate injury that wiped out most of his junior year, but in terms of pure talent he might be the best collegiate position player in the class.
Michael Chavis | 3B/OF, Sprayberry (Ga.) HS: Chavis is one of the most underrated hitters in the country, with a chance to stick at third and an above-average hit and power tool from the right side.
 
AL East: Targets for '14 draft
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Gatewood is intriguing as hell. I'm all about snagging a big power bat in the first round this year, even though I know the team will go BPA.
 

TheGoldenGreek33

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OptimusPapi said:
Ba has a new mock draft up. Apologize if I am not linking correctly. Haven't heard a lot about Nick Howard but is a reliever really the best player available? http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2014-draft-preview-shakeup-atop-mock-draft-3-0/
 
See posts 25/26 in this very thread.
 
Snodgrass'Muff said:
Gatewood is intriguing as hell. I'm all about snagging a big power bat in the first round this year, even though I know the team will go BPA.
 
I hate prep hitters in the first round, especially ones like Gatewood. The power is very real, but it's also extremely raw. He's 6-5, so odds are slim that he sticks at short which means the bat is going to have to carry him at a corner. You can dream on him all you want, but he's not a Sawdaye guy.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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It's amazing the difference in the prep pitchers from last year to this. They've got Medieros and Holmes going 15-25 range and I'd take both those guys over Trey Ball last year. Medieros up to 96 consistently with his FB and he's still got the wicked slider. Holmes is probably a better pitcher than Ball right now however I understand the problems with his size and projections based on that.
 
Aiken, Kolek, Touki, Medeiros, Reid-Foley, and Holmes...6 guys I'd have taken ahead of Ball in the same draft.
 
Also, I don't get the Alex Jackson love. I get that he's a first round talent, but I don't see it as a top 3 pick especially if projections move him off the dish. You take him over Rodon and you should be fit for the GM straight jacket.
 
If Hoffman falls to 26 do you pull the trigger?
 

TheGoldenGreek33

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PaulinMyrBch said:
It's amazing the difference in the prep pitchers from last year to this. They've got Medieros and Holmes going 15-25 range and I'd take both those guys over Trey Ball last year. Medieros up to 96 consistently with his FB and he's still got the wicked slider. Holmes is probably a better pitcher than Ball right now however I understand the problems with his size and projections based on that.
 
Aiken, Kolek, Touki, Medeiros, Reid-Foley, and Holmes...6 guys I'd have taken ahead of Ball in the same draft.
 
Also, I don't get the Alex Jackson love. I get that he's a first round talent, but I don't see it as a top 3 pick especially if projections move him off the dish. You take him over Rodon and you should be fit for the GM straight jacket.
 
If Hoffman falls to 26 do you pull the trigger?
 
I don't see Jackson as a top three pick, but top 10 for sure. Pedigree with his bat and the position he plays are the intrigue. Agreed on not over Rodon.
 
Absolutely on Hoffman. Don't see him getting past the Jays at either 9 or 11, though.
 

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Hee Sox Choi said:
 
Of course!  Don't you remember Craig Hansen?
Hansen's first major league appearance was electric and happened amazingly quickly. He looked like an absolute steal who had vaulted from college to a lights out MLB reliever in no time, making the big leagues in the same year he was drafted. 2 Ks, no hits, perfect inning, nasty stuff, including a K of future SOSH whipping boy Julio Lugo. It was an exciting moment.