The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

amfox1

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The back of your computer
Picks as of 4/4am - T13 (SAC)*, 20 (LAC), 22 (BOS), 50 (BOS), MEM pick rolls to 2020*
*subject to lottery results

Race for #8:
6T. DAL 31-47 (lost 1)
6T. MEM 31-47 (lost 2)
8T. WAS 32-47 (lost 1)
8T. NO 32-47 (lost 2)

Race for #13:
13T. MIA 38-40 (lost 2)
13T. SAC 38-40 (lost 1)

Race for #56/3-seed:
51/5-seed. IND 47-32 (won 2)
50/4-seed. BOS 47-32 (won 2) - BOS wins a tiebreaker with IND for seed
54/3-seed. PHI 49-29 (lost 2)


SAC (vs. CLE) and PHI (vs. MIL) play on 4/4
 
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BigSoxFan

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Yeah it’s far from likely. The MEM/DAL games will be very key here. If MEM wins both, that ups the odds a good amount. I think they’re going to split and so the odds will remain against conveying.
 
In my lifetime

In my lifetime

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Memphis at this point is the only real toss up. And the two Dallas games are critical with 4 teams within a half a game. Odds show that it is anything but a sure thing:
Pick convey odds:
#6 4.2%
#7 14.0%
#8 42.0%
#9 76.5%

Sacramento seems very likely to be at 14, since one would expect the 1 out of the 4 Eastern teams that doesn't make the playoffs will do so because they finish off the season more poorly than Sac.
With LA Clippers and Celtics with the same record, regardless of the finish, it looks like there won't be much change and the Celtics are likely to get #20 and 22.
 
wilked

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Anyone think:
1. A Davis will play again this season?
2. Pelicans will won another game this season?
 
Caspir

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wilked said:
Anyone think:
1. A Davis will play again this season?
2. Pelicans will won another game this season?
Click to expand...
Davis is a lock to sit the rest of the year out. Pels have the Suns, Kings, and Warriors left. I mean, maybe G-State sits everybody, and maybe the Suns are trying to avoid being "passed" by the Cavs, and maybe Sacramento isn't concerned with a strong finish since there's no playoffs. I'd say 1-2 is best case.
 
amfox1

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DAL, WAS, NO, MIA, LAC and SAC lose. MEM wins.

Picks as of 4/6am - 9 (MEM)*, 14 (SAC)*, 20 (LAC), 22 (BOS), 52 (BOS)
*subject to lottery results

Race for #8:
6. DAL 31-48 (lost 2)
7T. WAS 32-48 (lost 2)
7T. NO 32-48 (lost 3)
9. MEM 32-47 (won 1)

Race for #13:
13. MIA 38-41 (lost 3)
14. SAC 39-41 (lost 1)

Race for #56/3-seed:
50/5-seed. IND 47-33 (lost 1)
52/4-seed. BOS 48-32 (won 3) - BOS wins a tiebreaker with IND for seed
53T/3-seed. PHI 49-30 (lost 3)
 
amfox1

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Race for #8 schedules:
6. DAL 31-48 - @MEM (Sun), vs.PHX (Tue), @SA (Wed)
7T. WAS 32-48 - @NYK (Sun), vs.BOS (Tue)
7T. NO 32-48 - @SAC (Sun), vs.GS (Tue)
9. MEM 32-47 - vs.DAL (Sun), @DET (Tue), vs.GS (Wed)

DAL-MEM is the key game, obv. If MEM wins, they're likely the #9 lottery spot which means BOS is 80% likely to get the pick.
 
lovegtm

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amfox1 said:
Race for #8 schedules:
6. DAL 31-48 - @MEM (Sun), vs.PHX (Tue), @SA (Wed)
7T. WAS 32-48 - @NYK (Sun), vs.BOS (Tue)
7T. NO 32-48 - @SAC (Sun), vs.GS (Tue)
9. MEM 32-47 - vs.DAL (Sun), @DET (Tue), vs.GS (Wed)

DAL-MEM is the key game, obv. If MEM wins, they're likely the #9 lottery spot which means BOS is 80% likely to get the pick.
Click to expand...
And Dallas, not being total morons, sat Luka for the most recent Memphis game, so I'd imagine they'll do it again.
 
bankshot1

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It sucks, but the real issue is the NBA has a problem with so many teams tanking games over the last couple weeks of the season, or in the Knicks case, (not to pick on the knicks, but fuck them) almost the entire season.

Overlay betting atop that.

League integrity!
 
Cesar Crespo

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bankshot1 said:
It sucks, but the real issue is the NBA has a problem with so many teams tanking games over the last couple weeks of the season, or in the Knicks case, (not to pick on the knicks, but fuck them) almost the entire season.

Overlay betting atop that.

League integrity!
Click to expand...
It sucks that Memphis wants the pick to convey this year rather than join the tanking themselves. They could have easily landed in the top 5 had they started to tank after the Gasol trade. Instead Jonas Valancianus is averaging 19.9 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.6 blocks in 27.7 minutes on .545/.278/.769 shooting. They've had so many injures and so many different lineups it's amazing they've been able to win this many games.
 
bankshot1

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Actually in a perverse way, while I want the pick to rollover, I hate the tanking, so I'm not too upset that a team is not tanking, even if we get screwed a little in the process.
 
BigSoxFan

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bosox79 said:
It sucks that Memphis wants the pick to convey this year rather than join the tanking themselves. They could have easily landed in the top 5 had they started to tank after the Gasol trade. Instead Jonas Valancianus is averaging 19.9 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.6 blocks in 27.7 minutes on .545/.278/.769 shooting. They've had so many injures and so many different lineups it's amazing they've been able to win this many games.
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I’m surprised Memphis wants the pick to convey. I would have been tanking like crazy to get a 9-10% chance at Zion.
 
BigSoxFan

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chilidawg said:
Well maybe they're just guys who like to play basketball, and that means trying hard to win. I bet most of them could care less about the whole tanking narrative.
Click to expand...
You realize that tanking comes from the coaches and front office, right? Nobody is suggesting the actual players are tanking.
 
lovegtm

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BigSoxFan said:
You realize that tanking comes from the coaches and front office, right? Nobody is suggesting the actual players are tanking.
Click to expand...
Some forward-looking, innovative teams have been able to implement tanking at the player level though. The 2018-2019 Celtics perfectly tanked their way into the highest pick possible while still getting 1st round homecourt, despite the best efforts of their evil coach to thwart them and get wins.
 
BigSoxFan

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Mavs scrubs went nuts down stretch to win that. A Grizz win would have really tilted the odds towards conveying this year. Now it’s probably not conveying but still close.
 
mcpickl

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At a minimum, if Washington beats the Knicks tonight, the Celtics can lay down against the Wizards in a meaningless game Tuesday night and guarantee Memphis can finish no better than the 8th worst record.

The NBA, it's tanktastic.

edit: guarantee might be too far, I'm assuming Detroit takes care of business against Memphis Tuesday since they need the win.
 
BigSoxFan

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mcpickl said:
At a minimum, if Washington beats the Knicks tonight, the Celtics can lay down against the Wizards in a meaningless game Tuesday night and guarantee Memphis can finish no better than the 8th worst record.

The NBA, it's tanktastic.

edit: guarantee might be too far, I'm assuming Detroit takes care of business against Memphis Tuesday since they need the win.
Click to expand...
Yup. Tonight’s game was so big for the pick rolling over. Memphis may be able to get a win against Warriors scrubs but the competition are all probably getting another W as well. Highly doubtful they win a road game against a desperate Pistons squad.

This was a very bad result for the Mavs, as it increased their odds of handing over a top 6-7 pick this year instead of probably a pick in the teens next year.
 
BigSoxFan

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Cmon Pels. Very real chance Kings fall to 12/13 with a loss. And it helps Memphis odds.
 
BigSoxFan

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Need Miami and Charlotte to win out and Kings to lose to Blazers. That would give us the #12 pick and better shot at 2-4.
 
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