The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

HomeRunBaker

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Is that standard? Or is there some reason so mant FA this year?
This will be the highest percentage since FA began and overall the most FA by a large margin. The reasons are fairly simple.....with expanded rosters you have many more players on the back end of rosters on shorter 1 and 2-year deals and the trend is for shorter veteran deals with a player or team options. Many of these FA won't be impact players with quite a few unable to hook on with another team.

The teams with the most total FA:

10 - Dallas, LA Clippers, New Orleans, NY Knicks, Washington
9 - Atlanta, Brooklyn, Golden State, LA Lakers, Memphis, Miami, Minnesota, Philly, Toronto
8 - Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Indiana, Milwaukee, Phoenix
 

lovegtm

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Just doing a roll call here, the Celtics want:
1. Clippers to be the WC 8 seed. So we want them to win most nights, the WC will be a dogfight until the end.
2. Griz and Kings to lose as much as possible going forward.
3. Griz to beat Kings when they go head to head
4. Clippers to beat Kings and Griz when they go head to head.

The best outcome would be 2019 #2 (Kings), #15(Clips) & #30 (Celtics) with Memphis conveying a couple years down the road.

Correct me if I have this wrong.
We want a #16 Celtics, with the team going on history's most inspiring run as an 8 seed, and Brad yelling "never underestimate the heart of a champion who also happens to own every single pick in the upcoming draft!" while the trophy is presented.
 

HomeRunBaker

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They have a tough stretch over the next 2.5 weeks too.
SAS, OKC, BOS
@NOP
MEM
@GSW, @POR
DEN, MIL
The most noticeable difference with these Clippers recently is that they are no longer even pretending to defend. Opponents have scored 121 or more in 7 of their last 11 games after having done so in only 4 of the first 20.

Over the last 8 games their two wins have been in OT versus a Booker-less Suns team and the Mavs last night. This isn’t the same team that began the year overachieving .
 

bosox79

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Starting to think the Kings may actually make the playoffs. De'Aaron Fox is insanely good and over the last few weeks they have been making Hield a bigger part of the offense. He's averaging 23.5 points a game in December.

October 14.1 FGA/G .522/.447/.842
November 15.5 FGA/G .453/.415/.826
December 17.8 FGA/G ..469/.445/.893

He's easily one of the most underrated players in the league.
 

ishmael

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Starting to think the Kings may actually make the playoffs. De'Aaron Fox is insanely good and over the last few weeks they have been making Hield a bigger part of the offense. He's averaging 23.5 points a game in December.

October 14.1 FGA/G .522/.447/.842
November 15.5 FGA/G .453/.415/.826
December 17.8 FGA/G ..469/.445/.893

He's easily one of the most underrated players in the league.
Not good for the Celtics that Hield is likely entering his peak years: https://deadspin.com/buddy-hield-got-two-years-older-on-one-birthday-1831248170

One of those players that a lot of folks wrote off b/c he was an old rookie, but he has gotten better every year, to the point where he is now shooting at a Klay-like percentage from deep and avoiding bad 2s. Pair him with Fox (who is super active on D) and they're just a pain to match up against every night...
 

BigSoxFan

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Pelicans blow 11 point 4th quarter lead with 7:30 to go to give SAC another win. These guys could very well make the playoffs.
 

amarshal2

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Pelicans blow 11 point 4th quarter lead with 7:30 to go to give SAC another win. These guys could very well make the playoffs.
Or they could finish near the bottom. The west is super close and SAC has the second worst point differential in the conference.
 

BigSoxFan

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LeBron hurts his groin right before the Lakers have 2 straight games against the Kings.

This pick is cursed.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Kings were down 27 to the Clippers with 9 minutes left in the game...…….and cut it to 3 after a Ben McLemore-led 27-3 run over the next 7 minutes! Fortunately for the pick the Clips got a late hoop by Sweet Lou while Gallo got to the line a couple times to stem the tide and the Clips held on for a 9-point win. Crazy finish!
 

Eddie Jurak

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If Memphis misses the playoffs, do we want that pick to convey this year (meaning it would be #9 to #14) or not?
 

Eddie Jurak

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I would much prefer the pick to roll all the way over to unprotected 2021.
If we knew for sure that Memphis was going to bottom out, I agree that this would be the way to go. But how likely is that? Gasol and Conley are aging, but JJJ and a top 8 pick this year seem like good assets. What else do they have?
 

HomeRunBaker

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If Memphis misses the playoffs, do we want that pick to convey this year (meaning it would be #9 to #14) or not?
Unprotected 2021 has always been my target for this pick. The dream appeared over this year but relying on Garrett Temple and Shelvin Mack has brought the dream back to reality. We still likely need to lose Conley and/or Gasol for some stretches to secure this however.
 

oumbi

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An update! As of the start of 2019, the Celtics' picks stand at:

#13, Memphis.
#14, Sacramento.
#21, Boston/LAC a tie!
 

BigSoxFan

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It’ll be hard for Memphis to be bottom 8 bad this year. Will probably take a prolonged absence from Conley or Gasol. Landing the pick in the 9-12 range this year wouldn’t be the worst outcome for me, especially if it helps in the AD pursuit.
 

mcpickl

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If Memphis misses the playoffs, do we want that pick to convey this year (meaning it would be #9 to #14) or not?
I'd definitely want it to roll over.

I'd much rather roll the dice of getting a top 5 pick in 2021 than settle for a late lottery pick now. I don't see a likely way of Memphis improving much, if at all, over this years team soon. They already don't have cap space this summer, aren't a free agent destination city, and don't have any real trade assets outside of JJJ, Conley and Gasol. Plus moving Conley and Gasol probably doesn't get huge return because of age/contract and would signal a rebuild where you'd want their future pick.

Also, the Celtics are likely to have a pick in that general range from Sacramento and possibly the Clippers anyway. Unlikely they'd have multiple players they'd really love in that range, and as a trading asset I'd think the say #11 pick this year would have less value than the pick if it didn't convey this year.
 

Sprowl

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Unprotected 2021 has always been my target for this pick. The dream appeared over this year but relying on Garrett Temple and Shelvin Mack has brought the dream back to reality. We still likely need to lose Conley and/or Gasol for some stretches to secure this however.
It’ll be hard for Memphis to be bottom 8 bad this year. Will probably take a prolonged absence from Conley or Gasol. Landing the pick in the 9-12 range this year wouldn’t be the worst outcome for me, especially if it helps in the AD pursuit.
It's bad karma to wish for injury on guys 31 and 33... but it's a younger man's game. :unsure:
 

Sprowl

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FWIW, I didn't read it as wishing. Seems that someone's laying out contingencies. Were X to happen, then Y would happen.
No, it was more in reference to my own guilty wish. Conley and Gasol are good enough to carry a team to plenty of regular-season victories.
 

BigSoxFan

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Kings blow 9 point lead with 3 mins to go and lose in OT to Blazers. Very nice.
 

HomeRunBaker

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An update! As of the start of 2019, the Celtics' picks stand at:

#13, Memphis.
#14, Sacramento.
#21, Boston/LAC a tie!
Let's assume Davis becomes a Laker (or remains a Pelican)…...one area of concern is with the long term health of Horford's knee. If healthy he has a game that ages well but injuries can change things in a hurry and you don't want to place all your eggs on Timelord's clock. Selecting a versatile big seems like a reasonable option should we keep the picks (or trade up) so who is out there? I haven't spent much time at all viewing college hoops thus far which I usually begin in earnest after the new year but here are some of the best bigs out there along with the comps I've seen and their next game. Note: You will not find Bol Bol on one of my Celtic wish list boards.

* Nazreon Reid - LSU. DeMarcus Cousins/Julius Randle/Nene. Tues, 1/8 Alabama

* Daniel Gafford - Arkansas. Clint Capela/Marcus Camby. Sat, 1/5 @ Texas A&M

* Charles Bassey - Western Kentucky. David West/Clint Capela. Thurs, 1/3 @ Charlotte

* Simisola Shittu - Vanderbilt. JJ Hickson/Donyell Marshall. Sat, 1/5 Ole Miss


……..and two that you won't find by watching NCAA hoops this winter.


* Jontay Porter - Missouri. Markieff Morris/Brad Miller. Out for year ACL

* Goga Bitadze - Buducnost (Euroleague). Steven Adams/(dare I say) young Al Horford. Thurs, 1/3 AX Armani Milano (cmon it's 2019 you know you can find this game). He just took over as starting 5 on team that starts former NBAers Norris Cole and Earl Clark.
 

lovegtm

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Let's assume Davis becomes a Laker (or remains a Pelican)…...one area of concern is with the long term health of Horford's knee. If healthy he has a game that ages well but injuries can change things in a hurry and you don't want to place all your eggs on Timelord's clock. Selecting a versatile big seems like a reasonable option should we keep the picks (or trade up) so who is out there? I haven't spent much time at all viewing college hoops thus far which I usually begin in earnest after the new year but here are some of the best bigs out there along with the comps I've seen and their next game. Note: You will not find Bol Bol on one of my Celtic wish list boards.
Even if he's healthy-ish for the next 2-3 years, he's going to get a lot of regular season rest, and you will definitely need someone to replace him at the back-end of Kyrie's prime. So I totally agree with looking for a big now, with the caveat that it's also one of the easier positions to fill in FA. We're getting a preview of Horford's decline in this recent stretch of ball: some great nights, some fatigue, a lot of management needed, and big problems if rotation bigs aren't there to fill the spot.
 

Jimbodandy

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Watching Theis and Yabusele getting real minutes against real bigs lately has been unfun. Having another big queued up next year seems like a no brainer.
 

BigSoxFan

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Even if he's healthy-ish for the next 2-3 years, he's going to get a lot of regular season rest, and you will definitely need someone to replace him at the back-end of Kyrie's prime. So I totally agree with looking for a big now, with the caveat that it's also one of the easier positions to fill in FA. We're getting a preview of Horford's decline in this recent stretch of ball: some great nights, some fatigue, a lot of management needed, and big problems if rotation bigs aren't there to fill the spot.
Has there been any talk of Horford exercising his player option this summer? Wondering if the team and he can agree on an extension that reduces his 2019-2020 salary to help with luxury tax but gives him a couple extra years on his current deal.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Has there been any talk of Horford exercising his player option this summer? Wondering if the team and he can agree on an extension that reduces his 2019-2020 salary to help with luxury tax but gives him a couple extra years on his current deal.
Without the injury factor Horford exercising the option appeared to be a no-brainer to extend years for more guaranteed dollars. This certainly complicates things for him and for the team.
 

nomarshaus

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Not wishing for injury, just reporting - Mike Conley with 0 points today, removed from game in the 4th, on bench with a wrap on his shoulder.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not wishing for injury, just reporting - Mike Conley with 0 points today, removed from game in the 4th, on bench with a wrap on his shoulder.
Here's how I justify it. In the NBA over the course of 82 games each team WILL have x-number of man games lost to injury......it's part of the game. I will not apologize for wishing those games are missed by Conley and Gasol. It's not like we are wishing death or paralysis on them sheesh.
 

lovegtm

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Here's how I justify it. In the NBA over the course of 82 games each team WILL have x-number of man games lost to injury......it's part of the game. I will not apologize for wishing those games are missed by Conley and Gasol. It's not like we are wishing death or paralysis on them sheesh.
We're all wishing them injury, our wishes (probably?) don't have a causal effect on the universe, so let's all just mutually agree to be honest about it and stop giving disclaimers.
 

lovegtm

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However, on the off chance that my wishes do causally affect the universe, I hereby wish that Mike Conley play at full health until he's 40, and that the Celtics win 25 titles in a row, pause for a couple years to keep it interesting, and then rip off another 30.
 

Ed Hillel

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We're all wishing them injury, our wishes (probably?) don't have a causal effect on the universe, so let's all just mutually agree to be honest about it and stop giving disclaimers.
It’s really the one thing I respected about SeanBerry, he flat out admitted he hoped Tom Brady broke his leg every year. Others say it’s the last thing they want, but secretly do that little nose tap thing.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not wishing for injury, just reporting - Mike Conley with 0 points today, removed from game in the 4th, on bench with a wrap on his shoulder.
The struggling Pistons waltzed into Memphis and handed the freefalling Grizz a home L.

The unprotected 2021 dream lives for another day!!
 

BigSoxFan

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Current picks:

12 - MEM (top 8 protected)
14 - SAC
19 - LAC
23 - BOS

Starting to feel like it could be another 2001 when we had 10/11/21. Hopefully there are no Forte’s in this draft.

MEM is now only 1.5 up on #8 pick so quite possible this rolls to 2020, especially if Conley has an extended absence.

SAC is still hanging around and looks to have staying power in that 10-14 range.

LAC has struggled recently but could be settling as a 6-8 seed, which would be perfect. I would not be against the Celtics resting some starters against them when we play.

BOS is about to win about 30 straight so our pick will drop a little.
 

nighthob

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SAC is still hanging around and looks to have staying power in that 10-14 range.
Joerger deserves CoY consideration for guiding a team with a mediocre offense and a terrible defense to a .500 record. Hopefully Vlade fires him soon to get more playing time for Bagley.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Memphis only needs to stay in shouting distance of the pick protection range. They already know the writing is on the wall for the Gasol/Conley core as any kind of contender, and if they are close, their focus will turn to making sure they don’t miss out on the chance to start adding young pieces around JJJ asap. While having them finish from 9 to 14 would be annoying for us, it would be kind of a disaster for them, missing the playoffs with nothing to show for it. Their next 20 games likely decide how the final 25 will go, whereas the Kings look like more of a wild card all the way through.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Memphis only needs to stay in shouting distance of the pick protection range. They already know the writing is on the wall for the Gasol/Conley core as any kind of contender, and if they are close, their focus will turn to making sure they don’t miss out on the chance to start adding young pieces around JJJ asap. While having them finish from 9 to 14 would be annoying for us, it would be kind of a disaster for them, missing the playoffs with nothing to show for it. Their next 20 games likely decide how the final 25 will go, whereas the Kings look like more of a wild card all the way through.
Pera has repeatedly said in the past that he wasn't going to trade Gasol and wants him to retire a Grizzlie…….this is precisely why owners should own and basketball executives should be allowed to do their job. Here you have an owner publicly stating that he hopes one of his greatest assets represents zero return in a few years. Good lord.

Gasol has said in the past that he was open to a trade so maybe things can change by the deadline if they continue to slide. Something to keep an eye on as if they do you'd have to imagine Conley would also become available but his market is limited as a pure PG in a league where nearly all of the playoff teams are set at the position.


Info on Conley's injury (per Rotoworld). One of those "let's see how it feels tomorrow" type of deals.

Conley hurt his shoulder in the first quarter in a collision with Andre Drummond, which was a big reason why he failed to score for the first time this season. After the game, he said his shoulder stiffened up a bit and, while his strength was good, he struggled to do anything with his left arm, which is important for a left-hander. Conley doesn't think it's serious, but wants to see how he feels in the morning before making any further proclamations. We'll consider him questionable for Friday's game, which puts Shelvin Mack and Jevon Carter on notice for more playing time.
 

lovegtm

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Pera has repeatedly said in the past that he wasn't going to trade Gasol and wants him to retire a Grizzlie…….this is precisely why owners should own and basketball executives should be allowed to do their job. Here you have an owner publicly stating that he hopes one of his greatest assets represents zero return in a few years. Good lord.
Imagine if Ainge had said this about Pierce...
 

HomeRunBaker

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Imagine if Ainge had said this about Pierce...
Imagine if Red DIDN'T say this about Bird and McHale? Those reported deals that Red turned down would have led us right into the 90's as a championship contender. Grrrrrrr.
 

HomeRunBaker

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*rubs hands while cackling*
I'm not sure which is more beautiful...…

A} The fact that this occurred 8 years to the day of the infamous Tony Allen KO of OJ Mayo on the team plane over a card game.

B) That Mayo was listed as "Out" the following game with bronchitis as he sat on the bench with a black eye.

or C) Following last nights meeting an unnamed player allegedly told a reporter, "All was cool, nobody got Mayoed."
 

nighthob

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Memphis only needs to stay in shouting distance of the pick protection range. They already know the writing is on the wall for the Gasol/Conley core as any kind of contender, and if they are close, their focus will turn to making sure they don’t miss out on the chance to start adding young pieces around JJJ asap. While having them finish from 9 to 14 would be annoying for us, it would be kind of a disaster for them, missing the playoffs with nothing to show for it. Their next 20 games likely decide how the final 25 will go, whereas the Kings look like more of a wild card all the way through.
I'll disagree, I think that the front office would prefer to lose a low lottery pick this year rather than a higher one in 2020 or 2021. While I like this draft overall, after you get past the Duke 3 there are a lot of questions.

I think the Grizz would rather miss out on the opportunity to draft Charles Bassey, Rui Hachimora, or Nazareon Reid and not worry about losing what are bound to be higher picks in the next two drafts. I think the impact of losing a mid lottery pick next year or a high one the year after would be much more ruinous to the franchise long term.

Regardless of what happens with Marc Gasol, Conley's 31and little guys have a really poor track record past age 30-32. He's going to drop off a cliff sometime soon, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them try and move that contract on to a free agency loser this summer.
 

lovegtm

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I'll disagree, I think that the front office would prefer to lose a low lottery pick this year rather than a higher one in 2020 or 2021. While I like this draft overall, after you get past the Duke 3 there are a lot of questions.

I think the Grizz would rather miss out on the opportunity to draft Charles Bassey, Rui Hachimora, or Nazareon Reid and not worry about losing what are bound to be higher picks in the next two drafts. I think the impact of losing a mid lottery pick next year or a high one the year after would be much more ruinous to the franchise long term.

Regardless of what happens with Marc Gasol, Conley's 31and little guys have a really poor track record past age 30-32. He's going to drop off a cliff sometime soon, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them try and move that contract on to a free agency loser this summer.
Yup. Ideal for Memphis is to convey the pick as high as possible this year, and then move Conley & Gasol after the season. That lets those two look as good as possible, to maximize their value, and makes the tank straightforward.

Of course, based on Pera's statements, who knows whether they'll actually go this obvious route...
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I'll disagree, I think that the front office would prefer to lose a low lottery pick this year rather than a higher one in 2020 or 2021. While I like this draft overall, after you get past the Duke 3 there are a lot of questions.

I think the Grizz would rather miss out on the opportunity to draft Charles Bassey, Rui Hachimora, or Nazareon Reid and not worry about losing what are bound to be higher picks in the next two drafts. I think the impact of losing a mid lottery pick next year or a high one the year after would be much more ruinous to the franchise long term.

Regardless of what happens with Marc Gasol, Conley's 31and little guys have a really poor track record past age 30-32. He's going to drop off a cliff sometime soon, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them try and move that contract on to a free agency loser this summer.
I could definitely see that being their thought process. I'm just generally skeptical of the ability of the average FO to concern themselves with the future. Ainge is the rare one who does, which is why he has been able to fleece so many teams, of course.
 

nighthob

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Yup. Ideal for Memphis is to convey the pick as high as possible this year, and then move Conley & Gasol after the season. That lets those two look as good as possible, to maximize their value, and makes the tank straightforward.

Of course, based on Pera's statements, who knows whether they'll actually go this obvious route...
Pera's made the remark about Gasol, not Conley. That's why I suspect that the latter will be outbound this summer, which will have the same effect on the tank job.

A lot of this year's Tank Crew will be reloading with vets this summer in an attempt to get their shiny new prospects their best chance to win. Others will be major free agent players and entering the playoff contender phase next year.

There's just no chance for the Grizz to crack that bottom eight by trading Gasol and Conley for air except via the lottery winning route, at which point the pick won't convey anyway. I think the 12-25 range this year is rock solid with roleplayers of varying quality, but that doesn't really help the Grizz much, they need more guys like Jackson, not more guys like Dillon Brooks (and nothing against him, I love Brooks, but he's a 3 & D level guy, not a centerpiece).