The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

bosox79

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Need Miami to step up for the sweep.
Do you think the Clippers are that much of a lock for a playoff spot you'd rather they lose, especially given how close the west is?

I'd much rather the Clippers win.
 

BigSoxFan

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Do you think the Clippers are that much of a lock for a playoff spot you'd rather they lose, especially given how close the west is?

I'd much rather the Clippers win.
Agreed. Far too early to be rooting for Clippers losses.
 

ishmael

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Disappointing, especially since the Kings get the beat-a-Bulls next.

But their next 10 after that are:
MIN, GSW, @DAL, @MIN, OKC, MEM, NOP, @LAC, LAL, @LAL

Hopefully by New Year's Eve we can stop worrying about a Kings playoff run...
 

Imbricus

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I wouldn't necessarily count out the Bulls against the Kings. They did beat Oklahoma just before that horrific loss to Boston. Plus, sometimes teams come back extra-motivated after they've just been humiliated in front of all their fans.
 

BigSoxFan

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Sac on their way to their 5th win in 6 games. Schedule gets tougher but they’re hanging around. These other WC teams needs to get their act together.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm particularly worried that the Jazz just aren't good.
The Jazz are REALLY good. As I mentioned a couple weeks ago their schedule has been nothing like any of teams in the league up to this point. Up until now they have had only 3 sequences of more than one home game followed by another trip on the road......and 2 of those were 2 games and back on the road. It’s now finally beginning to normalize a little bit for them as they have won their last 3 home games by 34, 27, and 27 but now it’s back on the road for 3 of their next 4 with the one home game being Golden State. Absolutely brutal what the league has done to them.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/UTA/2019_games.html

Spoelstra echoed yesterday what I have been preaching about the Jazz.......


Before Wednesday’s game, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra noted in rather strong terms a big reason he feels the Jazz have been inconsistent thus far, and also made a prediction about the rest of their season. “With Utah, I just think everybody’s overlooking something that nobody wants to hear about: Their schedule has been outrageous,” he said.“They’ve basically lived in a hotel for the first six weeks of the season. Come talk to me in two months and we’ll see what their record is. I think they’ll be climbing up that Western Conference pretty quickly.”
 
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lovegtm

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The Jazz are REALLY good. As I mentioned a couple weeks ago their schedule has been nothing like any of teams in the league up to this point. Up until now they have had only 3 sequences of more than one home game followed by another trip on the road......and 2 of those were 2 games and back on the road. It’s now finally beginning to normalize a little bit for them as they have won their last 3 home games by 34, 27, and 27 but now it’s back on the road for 3 of their next 4 with the one home game being Golden State. Absolutely brutal what the league has done to them.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/UTA/2019_games.html

Spoelstra echoed yesterday what I have been preaching about the Jazz.......
Thanks for the breakdown; that explains a lot of why their D has been so bad relative to their standards.
 

bosox79

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The Jazz could be a good team and still miss the playoffs at this point. At some point, the West has to break right? The 2nd worst team in the division could finish with a .500 record.
 

lovegtm

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The Jazz could be a good team and still miss the playoffs at this point. At some point, the West has to break right? The 2nd worst team in the division could finish with a .500 record.
I'm thinking of it more in terms of "cmon guys, go catch the Kings already."
 

bosox79

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I'm thinking of it more in terms of "cmon guys, go catch the Kings already."
Remember when some people were worried the Kings pick would end #1 and we'd end up with the Sixers pick? I'd love to go back to that scenario.
 

Cellar-Door

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Jazz have had a brutal schedule, but....
They also have problems. Last year they had a great defense and a not that good offense.
This year they have a good defense and a bad offense, and some of the offense change is structural to me. Last year they got an outlier 3pt% year from Rubio, they had Jerebko playing significant minutes shooting the 3 well, Hood and Thabo each shot just under 40% from 3 in 2000 combined minutes. Now Hood and Jerebko are gone, Rubio is back to Rubio and Mitchell has slid from mediocre to bad, they can't stretch the floor other than Ingles and the offense is trash.

I think they are too good to miss the playoffs, but they aren't a particularly good team.
 

lovegtm

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Jazz have had a brutal schedule, but....
They also have problems. Last year they had a great defense and a not that good offense.
This year they have a good defense and a bad offense, and some of the offense change is structural to me. Last year they got an outlier 3pt% year from Rubio, they had Jerebko playing significant minutes shooting the 3 well, Hood and Thabo each shot just under 40% from 3 in 2000 combined minutes. Now Hood and Jerebko are gone, Rubio is back to Rubio and Mitchell has slid from mediocre to bad, they can't stretch the floor other than Ingles and the offense is trash.

I think they are too good to miss the playoffs, but they aren't a particularly good team.
Their offense is really dependent on effort, precision, and acting decisively with the defense in rotation. It actually has held up decently the last few playoffs, so I'm inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt wrt schedule-induced fatigue.

Last night's Celtics' game was a good contrast. The Celtics were on the road, flat, and not executing crisply on offense or defense (John Wall layup line). But because they have Kyrie Irving, they can just let him go supernova, put up some points and win an OT shootout. The Jazz simply don't have that margin for error, and the drain of a brutal schedule would affect them more than most imo.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jazz have had a brutal schedule, but....
They also have problems. Last year they had a great defense and a not that good offense.
This year they have a good defense and a bad offense, and some of the offense change is structural to me. Last year they got an outlier 3pt% year from Rubio, they had Jerebko playing significant minutes shooting the 3 well, Hood and Thabo each shot just under 40% from 3 in 2000 combined minutes. Now Hood and Jerebko are gone, Rubio is back to Rubio and Mitchell has slid from mediocre to bad, they can't stretch the floor other than Ingles and the offense is trash.

I think they are too good to miss the playoffs, but they aren't a particularly good team.
Everything you mentioned is a product of their travel schedule and fatigue that comes along with it. You also failed to mention Korver along with Ingles offensively which has completely changed the dynamic of their offense the past two weeks.
 

BigSoxFan

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Remember when some people were worried the Kings pick would end #1 and we'd end up with the Sixers pick? I'd love to go back to that scenario.
Yup :(

Teams like SA and HOU have really let me down so far. It has to be pretty rare that 2 separate teams are rooting for another to tank. The Celtics obviously have the most to gain but the Sixers would sure love to have their chance at Zion be as high as possible. Right now, it's 0% but should ultimately land at 0.5-6%.
 

Jimbodandy

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Their offense is really dependent on effort, precision, and acting decisively with the defense in rotation. It actually has held up decently the last few playoffs, so I'm inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt wrt schedule-induced fatigue.

Last night's Celtics' game was a good contrast. The Celtics were on the road, flat, and not executing crisply on offense or defense (John Wall layup line). But because they have Kyrie Irving, they can just let him go supernova, put up some points and win an OT shootout. The Jazz simply don't have that margin for error, and the drain of a brutal schedule would affect them more than most imo.
Sounds like the IT4 Celtics. Max effort team without a ton of wiggle room on offense. Even if they make they playoffs, that max effort stuff isn't an advantage anymore--everybody is trying hard on both ends.
 

lovegtm

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Sounds like the IT4 Celtics. Max effort team without a ton of wiggle room on offense. Even if they make they playoffs, that max effort stuff isn't an advantage anymore--everybody is trying hard on both ends.
I'm not as low on them as that. Max effort, locked in Utah is really good defensively, just because of the talent level they have on that end.
 

Cellar-Door

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Everything you mentioned is a product of their travel schedule and fatigue that comes along with it. You also failed to mention Korver along with Ingles offensively which has completely changed the dynamic of their offense the past two weeks.
Maybe Korver changes things, but the guys they lost has nothing to do with schedule nor is it reasonable to blame Rubio returning to long time career norms as a shooter on the schedule. Maybe Mitchell's struggles can be blamed on the schedule but we don't have much data to go on and even if he slides back toward 34% it doesn't change the backcourt shooting issues.
Korver will be interesting, he provides shooting they need, but he's an abysmal defender so we'll have to see how it works out he's grading out as a slight positive right now.
 

BigSoxFan

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Memphis loses at home to Miami. Schedule rest of the month:

Rockets
@ Warriors
@ Blazers
@ Kings
@ Lakers
Cavs
Celtics
@ Rockets

Should be 3-4 losses in that stretch, maybe more.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Memphis loses at home to Miami. Schedule rest of the month:

Rockets
@ Warriors
@ Blazers
@ Kings
@ Lakers
Cavs
Celtics
@ Rockets

Should be 3-4 losses in that stretch, maybe more.
2-6 is a real possibility. The Grizz only saving grace is that with the exception of tomorrow night they don't play a single back-to-back during this entire stretch. Who gets away with playing a 4-game road trip out west with no B2B? These are usually a 3 game in 4 night swing.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Will likely come down to the wire with these two. Would not be shocking to see them finish 2nd and 3rd to last in the WC just because of the overall strength out west. Of course, that would still have them above several East teams, but after hot starts, two lotto picks is still very much in play.
 

EL Jeffe

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Some of my early binkies (who should be somewhere in the 8-20 range):

  • De'Andre Hunter. Smooth, skilled, jack-of-all-trades type who should be able to fill up a stat sheet and defend multiple positions. He's over-aged for a sophomore and not the freak athlete some of the other prospects are, but guys like Hunter tend to stick.
  • Luguentz Dort. Besides having a stellar name, he's got an interesting skill-set. 6'5, 225lb., aggressive, athletic and can shoot.
  • Jaxson Hayes. He might be a bit redundant with Time Lord, but that's not a bad thing to replicate. I've heard Marcus Camby comparisons attached to Hayes. Draft Express has him as their #22 prospect, which seems too low. He can defend, block shots and move his feet. We'll see how his offensive game comes along.
 

chilidawg

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An interesting guy to me is Bassey at Western Kentucky. Young guy who reclassified into the 2019 class. From the little I've seen he doesn't look as athletic as Gafford or Hayes, but is already more offensively polished. Those 3 will be interesting to follow as 6-11 guys available in the late lottery to low 20's.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I won't complain if we can end up with two picks in the 10-14 range.
That’s shooting way to low imo. This sounds like a worse case scenario with the upside of both Memphis and Sacramento being in the top 8-9. We “should” have one of these two within the top 9 with Houston waking up, Utah’s schedule normalizing and teams not being caught off guard by the Jazz and Kings as much.
 

BigSoxFan

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That’s shooting way to low imo. This sounds like a worse case scenario with the upside of both Memphis and Sacramento being in the top 8-9. We “should” have one of these two within the top 9 with Houston waking up, Utah’s schedule normalizing and teams not being caught off guard by the Jazz and Kings as much.
Memphis is Top 8 protected so that pick landing 9 or 10 would be pretty ideal unless the preference is to roll the pick into 2020.
 

nighthob

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That’s shooting way to low imo. This sounds like a worse case scenario with the upside of both Memphis and Sacramento being in the top 8-9. We “should” have one of these two within the top 9 with Houston waking up, Utah’s schedule normalizing and teams not being caught off guard by the Jazz and Kings as much.
Yeah, I wouldn't mind the French kid, Doumbouya as a draft & stash prospect. Kel Johnson as a Jaylen replacement wouldn't go badly either (in the case of Jaylen being the centerpiece of a Davis deal). De'Andre Hunter is another guy I'd like in the mid to late lottery range. Not as much upside as some of the others, but he's going to have a long NBA career as a solid contributor.
 

chilidawg

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That’s shooting way to low imo. This sounds like a worse case scenario with the upside of both Memphis and Sacramento being in the top 8-9. We “should” have one of these two within the top 9 with Houston waking up, Utah’s schedule normalizing and teams not being caught off guard by the Jazz and Kings as much.
Of course it really doesn't matter what "we" shoot for, does it?
 

bankshot1

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Assuming the Celts cash the Sac/Mem/LAC picks in '19, it seems there is no good way for them to spend the 4 1s. I expect Trader Danny to package/trade/or trade up the picks. In that regard is there an NBA value matrix which assigns relative value. to 1st round picks (like the NFL has).
 

InstaFace

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Memphis is Top 8 protected so that pick landing 9 or 10 would be pretty ideal unless the preference is to roll the pick into 2020.
Personally I'd rather it roll into the future. We don't need bodies, and the longer it stays outstanding the more valuable it becomes - just top-6 protected in 2020, which then gives it a chance to roll into a 2021 unprotected pick. Our window of contention will be better served by having a better rookie player joining the team later on.
 

Captaincoop

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Personally I'd rather it roll into the future. We don't need bodies, and the longer it stays outstanding the more valuable it becomes - just top-6 protected in 2020, which then gives it a chance to roll into a 2021 unprotected pick. Our window of contention will be better served by having a better rookie player joining the team later on.
Unless Memphis gets better.
 

InstaFace

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Unless Memphis gets better.
If we get pick #12 this year from Memphis, our team's fortunes don't meaningfully change.

If our pick is top-8 and thus rolls into the future, there's a chance Memphis gets better, in which case we get an even-lower pick, and our team's fortunes still don't meaningfully change.

However, in the latter case, there is also at least a chance that we come away with #7 or something in 2020, or even better, a top-6 pick in 2021, in which case our team's fortunes may well in fact change.

So Door A leads to mild gains, but Door B could lead to dramatic gains (or nearly zilch), even if it's governed by probabilities entirely out of our control. I'll roll the dice with the latter, if given the choice.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Of course it really doesn't matter what "we" shoot for, does it?
Of course not. I was only questioning why any fan should be happy with such low picks compared to what their upside is if a few things happen.

We are still a Conley and/or Gasol injury away from rolling that pick over another year closer to Gasol’s cliff which has been on my radar for like 5 years now lol.

Unless Memphis gets better.
What is the downside chance of this occurring though? They aren’t adding anything of significance to their roster and have journeymen overachieving, The upside to the pick is any injury to Conley and/or Gasol both this year and next.

There is a much greater opportunity for the Grizz to still bottom out rather than to improve into a playoff team. How would they even do that without assets and two aging stars especially in the WC?

Edit: They play each other tomorrow night so someone will fall further.
 
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Sprowl

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Memphis is Top 8 protected so that pick landing 9 or 10 would be pretty ideal unless the preference is to roll the pick into 2020.
Assuming the Celts cash the Sac/Mem/LAC picks in '19, it seems there is no good way for them to spend the 4 1s. I expect Trader Danny to package/trade/or trade up the picks. In that regard is there an NBA value matrix which assigns relative value. to 1st round picks (like the NFL has).
Personally I'd rather it roll into the future. We don't need bodies, and the longer it stays outstanding the more valuable it becomes - just top-6 protected in 2020, which then gives it a chance to roll into a 2021 unprotected pick. Our window of contention will be better served by having a better rookie player joining the team later on.
We are still a Conley and/or Gasol injury away from rolling that pick over another year closer to Gasol’s cliff which has been on my radar for like 5 years now lol.
Roll on!
 

HomeRunBaker

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He’s referring to next season after the expected departures of guys like Morris, Rozier, Theis, etc.
Yup I was in the wrong thread mindset. Sorry.

Something like 50% of the leagues players will be free agents this summer so it won’t be like we’ll have a shortage of options.
 

McBride11

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Yup I was in the wrong thread mindset. Sorry.

Something like 50% of the leagues players will be free agents this summer so it won’t be like we’ll have a shortage of options.
Is that standard? Or is there some reason so mant FA this year?

Edit - in the theme of the thread - i hope it rolls. It was said better previously but given our glut this year I think an opportunity for higher in the future is far better for the team. 3 picks will help to fill some of those departures.
 

benhogan

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Just doing a roll call here, the Celtics want:
1. Clippers to be the WC 8 seed. So we want them to win most nights, the WC will be a dogfight until the end.
2. Griz and Kings to lose as much as possible going forward.
3. Griz to beat Kings when they go head to head
4. Clippers to beat Kings and Griz when they go head to head.

The best outcome would be 2019 #2 (Kings), #15(Clips) & #30 (Celtics) with Memphis conveying a couple years down the road.

Correct me if I have this wrong.
 

chilidawg

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Just doing a roll call here, the Celtics want:
1. Clippers to be the WC 8 seed. So we want them to win most nights, the WC will be a dogfight until the end.
2. Griz and Kings to lose as much as possible going forward.
3. Griz to beat Kings when they go head to head
4. Clippers to beat Kings and Griz when they go head to head.

The best outcome would be 2019 #2 (Kings), #15(Clips) & #30 (Celtics) with Memphis conveying a couple years down the road.

Correct me if I have this wrong.
I'm a bird in the hand kind of guy, so Memphis at 9 would be fine with me. But other than that, yeah.
 

BigSoxFan

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CP3 out several weeks with hurt hamstring. This won’t be good for the SAC/MEM picks.