The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

lovegtm

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I wouldn't do it, but the Knicks may realize, through back channels, that Butler, Durant and Kyrie aren't walking through that door. Instead of looking like chumps next off-season, they panic and make a move now for an All-Star.
The New York Knickerbockers resent your slanderous suggestion that they are anything other than a sober, responsible, & forward-thinking institution.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If he can move Wall for expirings, Grunfeld should win executive of the year running away.
The Wizards may not want to move Wall simply for expirings as he is still an extremely productive player on the floor. If he was on the block for only that return I'm sure there are several teams willing to take on his deal for a few years. The Knicks, Nets, and Heat immediately come to mind.
 

Royal Reader

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The Wizards may not want to move Wall simply for expirings as he is still an extremely productive player on the floor. If he was on the block for only that return I'm sure there are several teams willing to take on his deal for a few years. The Knicks, Nets, and Heat immediately come to mind.
I'm genuinely unsure re N.Y. and BKN. The Heat clearly would, just because they have very little means to get all star talent and are locked into their current medioCore. Wall doesn't make either of the NYC teams contenders and gets franchise destroyingly expensive in a few years, when they are hoping to be good.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm genuinely unsure re N.Y. and BKN. The Heat clearly would, just because they have very little means to get all star talent and are locked into their current medioCore. Wall doesn't make either of the NYC teams contenders and gets franchise destroyingly expensive in a few years, when they are hoping to be good.
Have the Knicks ever really cared about being contenders though or only interested in being the back page headline? Right now they are neither.
 

the moops

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The Wizards may not want to move Wall simply for expirings as he is still an extremely productive player on the floor. If he was on the block for only that return I'm sure there are several teams willing to take on his deal for a few years. The Knicks, Nets, and Heat immediately come to mind.
Wall will not be traded this year, for his trade kicker would result in WAS having to pay something like 20 million dollars. I am also skeptical that any team would take on Wall without shedding some of their own bad salary. 47 million for a 32 year old Wall is frightening
 

Captaincoop

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So...12, 19, 21, 28?

Getting better slowly. Would love to see the Kings pick around 10 and the Griz pick around 12-15.

Converting the Clippers pick as a 1st rounder at all is a win.
 

lovegtm

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So...12, 19, 21, 28?

Getting better slowly. Would love to see the Kings pick around 10 and the Griz pick around 12-15.

Converting the Clippers pick as a 1st rounder at all is a win.
Most likely for the Kings pick is around 6-8 when you look at the teams around them. A lot of the Western Conference has underperformed in ways that might be real, but not "worse than the Kings" real.

I was wrong about Memphis: they're a legitimately good team with Gasol and Conley playing this well. People have pointed out that their forced turnover rate is (unsustainably?) high though, so "good" might well fall in that high-lottery/low-playoff range.
 

InstaFace

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Between the Kings and Grizzlies, they better give us enough pingpong balls to make a man dream.

Knowing Danny, he'll probably win both drawings, and we'll end up with 1, 2, 17, 30.

...and he'll then make some absurd +EV trade.
 

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Most likely for the Kings pick is around 6-8 when you look at the teams around them. A lot of the Western Conference has underperformed in ways that might be real, but not "worse than the Kings" real.

I was wrong about Memphis: they're a legitimately good team with Gasol and Conley playing this well. People have pointed out that their forced turnover rate is (unsustainably?) high though, so "good" might well fall in that high-lottery/low-playoff range.
Even if the Spurs, Jazz, and Wolves all “pass” the Kings, that still puts them at 9. I don’t see the pick going any lower than 8 or 9. The 6th worst record right now is the Knicks at 8-16. The Kings are 11-11. Not easy to make up that kind of ground in the land of Tankathon.

I’ve been singing Memphis’ praises all year. They are legit and I think you’d be hard pressed to find 8 better teams in the WC. But maybe Conley will strain a hammy or something.

The Clippers continue to be the bonus pick. I think they’re due some regression but I won’t complain about the pick as long as we get it. It’s looking more and more like a potential bonus asset.
 

Cellar-Door

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Even if the Spurs, Jazz, and Wolves all “pass” the Kings, that still puts them at 9. I don’t see the pick going any lower than 8 or 9. The 6th worst record right now is the Knicks at 8-16. The Kings are 11-11. Not easy to make up that kind of ground in the land of Tankathon.

I’ve been singing Memphis’ praises all year. They are legit and I think you’d be hard pressed to find 8 better teams in the WC. But maybe Conley will strain a hammy or something.

The Clippers continue to be the bonus pick. I think they’re due some regression but I won’t complain about the pick as long as we get it. It’s looking more and more like a potential bonus asset.
Just based on schedule, some of the East teams will likely pass the Kings as they start playing each other more often and someone is guaranteed a win
 

bosox79

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Between the Kings and Grizzlies, they better give us enough pingpong balls to make a man dream.

Knowing Danny, he'll probably win both drawings, and we'll end up with 1, 2, 17, 30.

...and he'll then make some absurd +EV trade.
Memphis pick is top 8 protected so it would just goto Memphis. And if Sactown was 1, that would go to Philly. So getting 1,2 could actually suck ass.

There is no way for us to get the 1st overall pick. The best we could do is 2,9,14, 2x.
 

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Just based on schedule, some of the East teams will likely pass the Kings as they start playing each other more often and someone is guaranteed a win
Potentially but if SAC holds serve against SAS, MIN, and UTA, they could potentially offset those games. The top 6 teams are just so bad that I don't see SAC ever getting there. I think 8-10 is a reasonable goal for us with that pick. Still would give us a puncher's chance of landing in top 3.
 

benhogan

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Potentially but if SAC holds serve against SAS, MIN, and UTA, they could potentially offset those games. The top 6 teams are just so bad that I don't see SAC ever getting there. I think 8-10 is a reasonable goal for us with that pick. Still would give us a puncher's chance of landing in top 3.
The Kings have a nice combo of players that can shoot (Hield, Bog, Bjelica, Shumpert), penetrate (Fox, Mason, Ferrell), and score down low (WCS, Bagley).
8-10 seems about right. I guess we can hold out hope for front office dysfunction and Western Conf competitiveness to help the Celtics out.
 

lovegtm

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Potentially but if SAC holds serve against SAS, MIN, and UTA, they could potentially offset those games. The top 6 teams are just so bad that I don't see SAC ever getting there. I think 8-10 is a reasonable goal for us with that pick. Still would give us a puncher's chance of landing in top 3.
I'm not a huge 538 fan, but their types of projections do a bit better for "what will rough final standings be" than "who will win the championship," and they currently have the Kings at 6th worse.

That doesn't take into account tanking incentives, but I think we're reading a bit too much into a hot start for the Kings. This is in contrast to Memphis, whose top 2 guys are legit studs when healthy.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm not a huge 538 fan, but their types of projections do a bit better for "what will rough final standings be" than "who will win the championship," and they currently have the Kings at 6th worse.

That doesn't take into account tanking incentives, but I think we're reading a bit too much into a hot start for the Kings. This is in contrast to Memphis, whose top 2 guys are legit studs when healthy.
Hey, I hope they're right but I'm not buying it. Tankathon has forced me to watch these guys and they are pretty good. Definitely young and it's SAC so hopefully management screws something up along the way.
 

lovegtm

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Hey, I hope they're right but I'm not buying it. Tankathon has forced me to watch these guys and they are pretty good. Definitely young and it's SAC so hopefully management screws something up along the way.
Yeah, I don't think they're bad--it's a schedule/conference thing. In the East, they'd have an outside shot at the playoffs. The depth of the west also helps in that it makes it more likely they'll get demoralized and check out mentally or have management do something Kings-y.
 

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Even if the Spurs, Jazz, and Wolves all “pass” the Kings, that still puts them at 9. I don’t see the pick going any lower than 8 or 9. The 6th worst record right now is the Knicks at 8-16. The Kings are 11-11. Not easy to make up that kind of ground in the land of Tankathon.

I’ve been singing Memphis’ praises all year. They are legit and I think you’d be hard pressed to find 8 better teams in the WC. But maybe Conley will strain a hammy or something.

The Clippers continue to be the bonus pick. I think they’re due some regression but I won’t complain about the pick as long as we get it. It’s looking more and more like a potential bonus asset.
I realize that picks in the 20s can be valuable rookie deals at low money, but that's only if the guy is a contributor. Tons of those guys just aren't. And depth certainly isn't our problem. Another Williams or a rookie version Terry Rozier doesn't help us very much imo.
 

lovegtm

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I realize that picks in the 20s can be valuable rookie deals at low money, but that's only if the guy is a contributor. Tons of those guys just aren't. And depth certainly isn't our problem. Another Williams or a rookie version Terry Rozier doesn't help us very much imo.
?? Agree on Rozier, but if Williams comes close to using his potential in the next couple years, and an AD deal falls through, that completely changes the post-Horford trajectory of the franchise at the center position.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Also, when trading Wall, do other teams have to match 19 mil worth of contracts or 42? And how is John Wall only 28 years old?
It would be considered $24.3M. He has a 15% trade kicker; Washington would have to pay him it in a lump sum, but new team would take the hit on the books. His deal is confusing because it's unprecedented to trade a super max and they didn't provide specific rules about it in the CBA.

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/25406993/john-wall-trade-talks-nba-teams-saying

Edit: there's also the issue that with the kicker, he'd surpass the 35% threshold. So I'm not sure how the league is going to handle this if it were to happen.
 

the moops

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I realize that picks in the 20s can be valuable rookie deals at low money, but that's only if the guy is a contributor. Tons of those guys just aren't. And depth certainly isn't our problem. Another Williams or a rookie version Terry Rozier doesn't help us very much imo.
Well, they might not help us, but next year this team likely needs to fill Morris and Roziers spots, and perhaps a couple more (Theis, Wannamaker, Bird, etc.). It would be nice to grab a couple vet minimum guys for those spots, but cheap rookie deals are also needed, especially with the cap situation in 2019/2020 and beyond
 

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?? Agree on Rozier, but if Williams comes close to using his potential in the next couple years, and an AD deal falls through, that completely changes the post-Horford trajectory of the franchise at the center position.
One guy like that taking up a roster spot is perfectly fine, especially a high upside guy. But if we're talking #10 and 3 guys outside the lottery, now we have 3 roster spots (assuming 1 stash) that likely project as JAGs. For a rebuilding team, fantastic. For us, that's disappointing.
 

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Well, they might not help us, but next year this team likely needs to fill Morris and Roziers spots, and perhaps a couple more (Theis, Wannamaker, Bird, etc.). It would be nice to grab a couple vet minimum guys for those spots, but cheap rookie deals are also needed, especially with the cap situation in 2019/2020 and beyond
That's kind of the point, I guess. Danny seems to have little trouble finding the Theis's of the world. I suppose the #22 pick instead might cut down on some trips to Europe.
 

InstaFace

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Memphis pick is top 8 protected so it would just goto Memphis. And if Sactown was 1, that would go to Philly. So getting 1,2 could actually suck ass.

There is no way for us to get the 1st overall pick. The best we could do is 2,9,14, 2x.
Thank you, I had a momentary lapse of reason. But we couldn't get 14, right? Just 15 from LAC?

One guy like that taking up a roster spot is perfectly fine, especially a high upside guy. But if we're talking #10 and 3 guys outside the lottery, now we have 3 roster spots (assuming 1 stash) that likely project as JAGs. For a rebuilding team, fantastic. For us, that's disappointing.
Yeah, that's why I assume he's going to package a few of those picks to a rebuilding team for a player or future pick. This team needs a few teens-and-twenties picks like it needs a hole in the head.
 
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lovegtm

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One guy like that taking up a roster spot is perfectly fine, especially a high upside guy. But if we're talking #10 and 3 guys outside the lottery, now we have 3 roster spots (assuming 1 stash) that likely project as JAGs. For a rebuilding team, fantastic. For us, that's disappointing.
Yeah, this is more an issue with the current redundancy and depth on the roster, and less with the value of 1st rounders to contending teams. I agree that the Celtics need to consolidate in a big way soon, & it can only really happen once we get some certainty on where the picks land.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hey, I hope they're right but I'm not buying it. Tankathon has forced me to watch these guys and they are pretty good. Definitely young and it's SAC so hopefully management screws something up along the way.
Well the Asst GM called out the Head Coach for not starting Bagley then "something" happened later when the Head Coach threw the Asst GM out of practice in front of the entire team. Joerger may be a couple of losses from being fired so there does exist this possibility.
 

moondog80

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One guy like that taking up a roster spot is perfectly fine, especially a high upside guy. But if we're talking #10 and 3 guys outside the lottery, now we have 3 roster spots (assuming 1 stash) that likely project as JAGs. For a rebuilding team, fantastic. For us, that's disappointing.
I'm not so sure about that. With all the $ paid out the stars, a steady stream of cheap, cost controlled bench guys to replace the Terry Roziers and Marcus Morrises that we cannot afford to keep will be needed.
 

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Yeah, this is more an issue with the current redundancy and depth on the roster, and less with the value of 1st rounders to contending teams. I agree that the Celtics need to consolidate in a big way soon, & it can only really happen once we get some certainty on where the picks land.
It depends on where these picks ultimately land but a team like the Celtics could potentially roll the dice on a guy with injury issues more willingly than someone with only 1 pick.

Darius Garland just had meniscus surgery. What if he doesn’t recover as quickly as he’d hoped? If I’m Danny, I gladly scoop him up if he falls to teens/low 20s.

Doesn’t sound like there’s a big international pool this year but that’s another avenue that could be explored if we’re sitting here with 4 picks.
 

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I'm not so sure about that. With all the $ paid out the stars, a steady stream of cheap, cost controlled bench guys to replace the Terry Roziers and Marcus Morrises that we cannot afford to keep will be needed.
I'd rather have the picks than not have them, but we don't need four Morris/Rozier-in-training guys added next year alone.

I love the idea of bundling them. Maybe DA picks guys mostly based on who's valuable in a white whale trade. Otherwise, maybe he stashes two.

We're not drafting 2018 TR or MM in the 20s. Even if we do, they're just taking up space for 2-3 years until they develop into those guys.

Asked differently, are we psyched that maybe DA will be drafting out 2022 starting power forward and bench wing? I'm not.
 

Jimbodandy

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If we could indeed get a 2022 starting PF and competent bench wing in this draft, we should be ecstatic.
Recalibrating expectations for this windfall then, I guess. Help any time soon isn't coming in this draft, unless the ball bounce is miraculous.

2022 help is better than nothing.
 

nighthob

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Well the Asst GM called out the Head Coach for not starting Bagley then "something" happened later when the Head Coach threw the Asst GM out of practice in front of the entire team. Joerger may be a couple of losses from being fired so there does exist this possibility.
You know what would be really hilariously Kingsy? For them to fire Joerger and use WCS as the talent portion of an Otto Porter deal to force Bagley into the starting five.
 

chilidawg

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Recalibrating expectations for this windfall then, I guess. Help any time soon isn't coming in this draft, unless the ball bounce is miraculous.

2022 help is better than nothing.
It's not like none of the drafted players will contribute. Look at last year's draft, you've got guys like SGA, Jaren Jackson, Miles Bridges, DiVencenzo, and Shamet contributing to winning teams.

Another way to look at it is that we have 15 roster spots, and probably need 11-12 guys in the rotation. That leaves 3-4 "development" spots. 4 first rounders plus RW is too much obviously, but there's no reason we can't add a couple.
 

BigSoxFan

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It's not like none of the drafted players will contribute. Look at last year's draft, you've got guys like SGA, Jaren Jackson, Miles Bridges, DiVencenzo, and Shamet contributing to winning teams.

Another way to look at it is that we have 15 roster spots, and probably need 11-12 guys in the rotation. That leaves 3-4 "development" spots. 4 first rounders plus RW is too much obviously, but there's no reason we can't add a couple.
I’d also add that not all picks in the 20s are developmental. Could easily mix in some college upperclassmen who are close to ready for immediate bench roles but who are being drafted in that range because they may lack the upside of the younger guys.

There really are a million different directions that Ainge can take this in so we’ll just have to see where these picks ultimately land. One of them could easily be dealt for a bench piece before the deadline. Probably not likely but certainly possible.
 

nighthob

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Recalibrating expectations for this windfall then, I guess. Help any time soon isn't coming in this draft, unless the ball bounce is miraculous.

2022 help is better than nothing.
There's no need to be so pessimistic, the Kings' pick is most likely to be a mid lottery one and there are going to be some real prospects there. If it's immediate help they want I think that De'Andre Hunter is going to be pretty good out of the gate, and quite likely the sort of player we all wish that Brown were today (long, strong, athletic, 3&D wing). There're also going to be guys like Keldon Johnson who'll do wonders for the shooting.

The draft pool is pretty solid through #20, so the Grizz and Clippers slipping into that range will give Boston some options. Daniel Gafford and Charles Bassey look like they'll slip into the mid first round. The Japanese PF from Gonzaga, Rui Hachimura, has a lot of upside, even if his most realistic projection is pace & space PF (i.e. can handle switches defensively while spacing the floor on offense).

Even a late pick has potential if they could talk Jontay Porter into entering the draft this year and not risking further injury.
 

nighthob

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There really are a million different directions that Ainge can take this in so we’ll just have to see where these picks ultimately land. One of them could easily be dealt for a bench piece before the deadline. Probably not likely but certainly possible.
There are also teams out there like Miami and Houston in desperate need of young, cost-controlled players that you can get future firsts from for those low #1s.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'd rather have the picks than not have them, but we don't need four Morris/Rozier-in-training guys added next year alone.

I love the idea of bundling them. Maybe DA picks guys mostly based on who's valuable in a white whale trade. Otherwise, maybe he stashes two.

We're not drafting 2018 TR or MM in the 20s. Even if we do, they're just taking up space for 2-3 years until they develop into those guys.

Asked differently, are we psyched that maybe DA will be drafting out 2022 starting power forward and bench wing? I'm not.
Assets are assets. Whoever we draft will be injury insurance as a team such as this will have it's rotation lined up by training camp and it isn't going to include any non-high lottery rookie. We could add a player or two to the back end of the roster replacing the Wanamakers and Yabusele's or Ainge could identify a desperate GM (or two) who would relax future protections on a #1 in exchange for a player that would get minutes for that team as a rookie. GM's are always looking to add some talent and wins to save their jobs...….and Ainge is in a perfect spot to seize these opportunities to secure potential lottery picks down the road.
 

lovegtm

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If we could indeed get a 2022 starting PF and competent bench wing in this draft, we should be ecstatic.
Yeah, ask the Warriors how they would have felt about getting a bench wing and starting center for 18-19 a couple years ago.

Alternatively there have generally been #14+#19 for #11 type deals available the past couple years.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, ask the Warriors how they would have felt about getting a bench wing and starting center for 18-19 a couple years ago.

Alternatively there have generally been #14+#19 for #11 type deals available the past couple years.
Yeah just don't pass on Giannis and Gobert to move up for Olynyk.
 

radsoxfan

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The Wizards may not want to move Wall simply for expirings as he is still an extremely productive player on the floor. If he was on the block for only that return I'm sure there are several teams willing to take on his deal for a few years. The Knicks, Nets, and Heat immediately come to mind.
He is productive now, but even completely healthy, his skill set doesn't age very well. Add in the knee injuries and the teams getting to see all of his medicals pre-trade, I think any team would be crazy to take on that contract for nothing. Hard to imagine him being worth even half his yearly salary by 2020-21 (40.8M). And then he's got 43.8M and 46.8M coming the 2 years after that.

I won't pretend to know what some teams would do, but what they should do is stay very far away. There isn't a close-to-contending team that Wall makes better enough right now. And any middle of the pack or rebuilding team is going to want nothing to do with Wall's contract by the time they could be contending.
 

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He is productive now, but even completely healthy, his skill set doesn't age very well. Add in the knee injuries and the teams getting to see all of his medicals pre-trade, I think any team would be crazy to take on that contract for nothing. Hard to imagine him being worth even half his yearly salary by 2020-21 (40.8M). And then he's got 43.8M and 46.8M coming the 2 years after that.

I won't pretend to know what some teams would do, but what they should do is stay very far away. There isn't a close-to-contending team that Wall makes better enough right now. And any middle of the pack or rebuilding team is going to want nothing to do with Wall's contract by the time they could be contending.
I wouldn’t touch his contract with a 10 foot pole but I don’t think turning a team into a contender is a prerequisite. A team like Phoenix has tons of cap space, a glaring need for a PG, and is motivated to get better quickly. They could accommodate Wall’s contract if they include Anderson as part of the deal. Ayton won’t be due for a big deal until the last year of Wall’s contract. Adding Wall to the team this year won’t impact their Zion chase much either. Add Wall to a team with Booker, Ayton, Warren, Jackson, and a 2019 lotto pick and you have the makings of a pretty good team on paper.

Another team I can think of is New Orleans with a Wall/Holiday swap. How strong is the Kentucky bond between AD and Wall? You’d have the shittiest team around those two if you had both but, who knows, maybe they get wonky for a few years in their desperation to keep AD.
 

the moops

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A team like Phoenix has tons of cap space, a glaring need for a PG, and is motivated to get better quickly. They could accommodate Wall’s contract if they include Anderson as part of the deal. Ayton won’t be due for a big deal until the last year of Wall’s contract. Adding Wall to the team this year won’t impact their Zion chase much either. Add Wall to a team with Booker, Ayton, Warren, Jackson, and a 2019 lotto pick and you have the makings of a pretty good team on paper.
I agree on the Phoenix angle, except that any Wall deal is not going to happen this year. The trade kicker really fucks it all up.
 

bosox79

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Montrezl Harrell is having a really good season so far, and has been even better of late. Last 13 games: 19.8 points, 8.1 boards, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.6 blocks in 29.2 minutes of play on 66% shooting. He's a big part of the Clippers success. Tobias Harris has also turned himself into a really good player.
 

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Montrezl Harrell is having a really good season so far, and has been even better of late. Last 13 games: 19.8 points, 8.1 boards, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.6 blocks in 29.2 minutes of play on 66% shooting. He's a big part of the Clippers success. Tobias Harris has also turned himself into a really good player.
Doc Rivers is showing his versatility again. The job he did winning COY with Orlando was as good a job as I've even seen with half his rotation being rookie undrafted FA......then handling the Celtics locker room where players have given him a ton of credit......and now this years Clippers. All this while making his son a wealthy man!! :)
 

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I agree on the Phoenix angle, except that any Wall deal is not going to happen this year. The trade kicker really fucks it all up.
Good call on the trade kicker. I had forgotten about that. Washington is pretty stuck with Wall.
 

bosox79

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I wouldn’t touch his contract with a 10 foot pole but I don’t think turning a team into a contender is a prerequisite. A team like Phoenix has tons of cap space, a glaring need for a PG, and is motivated to get better quickly. They could accommodate Wall’s contract if they include Anderson as part of the deal. Ayton won’t be due for a big deal until the last year of Wall’s contract. Adding Wall to the team this year won’t impact their Zion chase much either. Add Wall to a team with Booker, Ayton, Warren, Jackson, and a 2019 lotto pick and you have the makings of a pretty good team on paper.

Another team I can think of is New Orleans with a Wall/Holiday swap. How strong is the Kentucky bond between AD and Wall? You’d have the shittiest team around those two if you had both but, who knows, maybe they get wonky for a few years in their desperation to keep AD.
The Suns are all in on Booker as PG so I'm not sure they'd want Wall. Booker just turned 22 years old in October and has seen his assist rate climb from 15.8 to 16.3 to 24.4 to 33.7. Plus Booker is somewhat of a volume scorer himself so Wall seems like he would be a bad fit. I could definitely see them wanting Beal, but what team wouldn't?

They also have a ton of cap room this off season. I don't see them wanting to tie that space up in a player like John Wall. Maybe a team with a lot of cap space missing on all the FA's this coming summer trades for Wall but I'm not sure an in season trade is in the works.