The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

Red Averages

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BSF is going to be the game thread starter when we're in a must win during the playoffs.

Between that Memphis collapse and the Magic implosion of the Lakers concluding tonight, I'm ecstatic. I might even pull a jersey swap like RJ Hunter
 

amfox1

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(11pm ET update)

Race for #8:
The scenarios are as follows based on the results of Wed's games (MEM vs.GS, DAL@SA):

If MEM loses, MEM ends up tied w/WAS for 6th/7th.
If MEM and DAL win, MEM ends up tied w/NO for 7th/8th.
If MEM wins and DAL loses, MEM ends up tied w/NO and DAL for 7th/8th/9th.
Ties will be broken by coin flip.

Race for #12:
SAC, CHA and MIA are all tied, going into Wed's games @POR, vs.ORL and @BRK, respectively. MIA is eliminated from the playoffs, while CHA can get in with a win and a DET loss @NYK on Wed.

If all three teams lose, SAC ends up tied w/CHA and MIA for 12th/13th/14th.
If all three teams win, SAC ends up tied w/CHA or DET and MIA for 12th/13th/14th.
SAC could end up 12th by itself (if it loses and CHA and MIA win), 14th by itself (if it wins and CHA and MIA lose) or tied with one of CHA (12th/13th or 13th/14th), DET (13th/14th) or MIA(12th/13th or 13th/14th).
Ties will be broken by coin flip.

Race for #18:
LAC, IND and SA are all tied, going into Wed's games vs.UTA, @ATL and vs.DAL, respectively. OKC is one game ahead and plays @MIL. LAC could end up with any slot from 18-21, depending on Wed's results and subsequent coin flips.

If OKC loses on Wed, BOS will be locked into the 22/52 slots in the draft. If OKC wins on Wed, BOS and OKC will be tied for 21st/22nd, and BOS will either have 21/52 or 22/51, depending on a coin flip.

EDIT: reflects OKC win
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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I find it funny that in a game the 'Zards absolutely had to lose, they played Jeff Green (and Mahimi and Dekker) down the stretch.

And Green closed like the champ he is.
 

NomarsFool

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Seems like we have some reasons to watch the scoreboard tonight.

Sacramento, Charlotte, and Miami are all in a 3 way tie for #12-14.

SAC plays Portland (seems like this could impact seeding for POR)
MIA plays Brooklyn (seems like this could impact seeding for BKN)
CHA plays Orlando (CHA trying to make playoffs, and ORL seeding)

Memphis sitting at #7, with a game against Golden State.

Dallas vs. San Antonio: SA winning helps the LAC pick stay at 18, while a Dallas victory could help the Memphis pick stay where it is.

LAC vs. Utah with Utah having nothing to really play for, I think. LAC has a 3 game losing streak.

Indiana vs. Atlanta, with Indiana with nothing to play for, but ATL is pretty lousy.
 

wilked

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(11pm ET update)

Race for #8:
The scenarios are as follows based on the results of Wed's games (MEM vs.GS, DAL@SA):

1. If MEM loses, MEM ends up tied w/WAS for 6th/7th.
2. If MEM and DAL win, MEM ends up tied w/NO for 7th/8th.
3. If MEM wins and DAL loses, MEM ends up tied w/NO and DAL for 7th/8th/9th.
Ties will be broken by coin flip.
So if I have it right.... using a fair coin, current odds of the pick going to Boston (ie > 8):

Scenario 1 - 9%
Scenario 2 - 27%
Scenario 3 - 44%

(these numbers would change once the coins are actually flipped, but these are the odds with coinflips)
 

amfox1

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So if I have it right.... using a fair coin, current odds of the pick going to Boston (ie > 8):

Scenario 1 - 9%
Scenario 2 - 27%
Scenario 3 - 44%

(these numbers would change once the coins are actually flipped, but these are the odds with coinflips)
That's not correct. The issue is that, while the number of combos balance out, losing the coin flip means you fall behind the other team if neither of you are in the top four.

For example, in Scenario 2 (the only scenario to which I fully know the answer)

2. If MEM and DAL win, MEM ends up tied w/NO for 7th/8th.
If MEM wins the coin flip (68 combos of 1,000), there is only a 15.2% chance of the pick being conveyed
If MEM loses the coin flip (67 combos of 1,000), there is a 38.1% chance of the pick being conveyed

Huge difference. If you are 7th, you need two teams to pass you to fall to 9th. If 8th, only one will suffice.

If there is a three way tie (scenario 3) and MEM loses the coin flip, there is a 73.8% chance of the pick being conveyed. I don't know the other percentages yet.
 

djbayko

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BSF is going to be the game thread starter when we're in a must win during the playoffs.

Between that Memphis collapse and the Magic implosion of the Lakers concluding tonight, I'm ecstatic. I might even pull a jersey swap like RJ Hunter
Won’t that be an awkward position for him? Is he really going to do his reverse lock method and fellate the 76ers, for example, in his opening post? Say it ain’t so.
 

BigSoxFan

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Won’t that be an awkward position for him? Is he really going to do his reverse lock method and fellate the 76ers, for example, in his opening post? Say it ain’t so.
I’m a one-trick pony. Saving up my heat check for draft lottery night...
 

The Racoon

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Sorry, if this has been discussed before, but concerning the MEM pick: What do you think would DA prefer happening with the pick this year? Would he rather take a 9th/10th pick this year or prefer the chances for a slightly higher pick in 2020 with the chance of it being unprotected in 2021?
Is there even a consensus here on what we are rooting for with this pick?
 

moondog80

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Sorry, if this has been discussed before, but concerning the MEM pick: What do you think would DA prefer happening with the pick this year? Would he rather take a 9th/10th pick this year or prefer the chances for a slightly higher pick in 2020 with the chance of it being unprotected in 2021?
Is there even a consensus here on what we are rooting for with this pick?
Supposedly the Celtics very much do NOT want the pick to convey this year.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yup. We don’t want it this year. Memphis doesn’t look like a playoff team any time soon and this year’s draft doesn’t look that great in the 9-10 range. And we already have 3 other picks and it’s a more valuable trade asset if it doesn’t convey.
 

lovegtm

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Sorry, if this has been discussed before, but concerning the MEM pick: What do you think would DA prefer happening with the pick this year? Would he rather take a 9th/10th pick this year or prefer the chances for a slightly higher pick in 2020 with the chance of it being unprotected in 2021?
Is there even a consensus here on what we are rooting for with this pick?
It's not just the pick placement, or our current talent logjam. This draft just doesn't look exciting after the top 5.
 

Marbleheader

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Playing around with tankathon's draft simulator with the new odds, the Memphis pick gets pushed to 9 more often than I would like.
 

lovegtm

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Seems like we have some reasons to watch the scoreboard tonight.

Sacramento, Charlotte, and Miami are all in a 3 way tie for #12-14.

SAC plays Portland (seems like this could impact seeding for POR)
MIA plays Brooklyn (seems like this could impact seeding for BKN)
CHA plays Orlando (CHA trying to make playoffs, and ORL seeding)

Memphis sitting at #7, with a game against Golden State.

Dallas vs. San Antonio: SA winning helps the LAC pick stay at 18, while a Dallas victory could help the Memphis pick stay where it is.

LAC vs. Utah with Utah having nothing to really play for, I think. LAC has a 3 game losing streak.

Indiana vs. Atlanta, with Indiana with nothing to play for, but ATL is pretty lousy.
Atlanta has been quite feisty the last couple months, unfortunately. I could see them being favored if the Pacers rest their starters (as they should).
 

JakeRae

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That's not correct. The issue is that, while the number of combos balance out, losing the coin flip means you fall behind the other team if neither of you are in the top four.

For example, in Scenario 2 (the only scenario to which I fully know the answer)

2. If MEM and DAL win, MEM ends up tied w/NO for 7th/8th.
If MEM wins the coin flip (68 combos of 1,000), there is only a 15.2% chance of the pick being conveyed
If MEM loses the coin flip (67 combos of 1,000), there is a 38.1% chance of the pick being conveyed

Huge difference. If you are 7th, you need two teams to pass you to fall to 9th. If 8th, only one will suffice.

If there is a three way tie (scenario 3) and MEM loses the coin flip, there is a 73.8% chance of the pick being conveyed. I don't know the other percentages yet.
This isn’t different from what wilked said. Since the coin flips are events with known probabilities, you can calculate the pick expectations either before or after the coin flip. Obviously, the coin flip makes a big difference, and your post does a great job of highlighting that. But, saying that after a 50/50 event the odds are 15% or 38% does not refute, but confirms, that prior to the 50/50 event the odds were around 27%.
 

lovegtm

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When does the flip get done? Right after the season?

Edit: to answer my own question, based on past news stories it appears to be directly following the season, so we'll know in a couple days.
 

nighthob

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Sorry, if this has been discussed before, but concerning the MEM pick: What do you think would DA prefer happening with the pick this year? Would he rather take a 9th/10th pick this year or prefer the chances for a slightly higher pick in 2020 with the chance of it being unprotected in 2021?
Is there even a consensus here on what we are rooting for with this pick?
The trade value of a mid to late lottery pick this year is low, so Boston would prefer the pick to roll over. Even if Davis doesn't happen, and Irving walks (and at this point I'm expecting Irving and Durant to team up somewhere next year), they'll need the capital to start over again.
 

wilked

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This isn’t different from what wilked said. Since the coin flips are events with known probabilities, you can calculate the pick expectations either before or after the coin flip. Obviously, the coin flip makes a big difference, and your post does a great job of highlighting that. But, saying that after a 50/50 event the odds are 15% or 38% does not refute, but confirms, that prior to the 50/50 event the odds were around 27%.
Thanks...saved me typing it out.

I mean, there is still a “worst worst” case, but as I type today odds are very good this thing doesn’t convey. We have to have BOTH the games go wrong tonight and the coin flips go wrong to be on the wrong side of the odds
 

DrewDawg

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Memphis up 66-50 on Warriors--with 5 minutes left in 2nd quarter.

Mavs down 19 at about same point of game.
 

Red Averages

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It’s easier to just block him like I did. I had to show the context to get your post, but ultimately it’s easier if a tree falls in the woods and no one is around to hear it.
 

amfox1

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(9:15pm ET update) Wednesday games with BOS draft implications:

Race for #8/Race for #18:
DAL@SA - SA by 20 at the half

Race for #8:
MEMvs.GS - MEM by 18 at the half

Race for #12:
CHAvs.ORL - CHA down by 4 at the half
MIA@BRK - MIA down by 16 at the half
DET@NYK - DET by 24 at the half (a win eliminates CHA)
SAC@POR - 10:30pm start

Race for #18:
IND@ATL - IND by 4 at the half
UTA@LAC - 10:30pm start

Race for #18/Race for #21:
OKC@MIL - OKC by 10 at the half
 

amfox1

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(9:45pm ET update) Wednesday games with BOS draft implications:

Race for #8/Race for #18:
DAL@SA - SA by 8 early-4th Q

Race for #8:
MEMvs.GS - MEM by 24 early-4th Q

Race for #12:
CHAvs.ORL - CHA down by 7 late-3rd Q
MIA@BRK - MIA down by 10 early-4th Q
DET@NYK - DET by 31 late-3rd Q (a win eliminates CHA)
SAC@POR - 10:30pm start

Race for #18:
IND@ATL - IND by 5 mid-3rd Q
UTA@LAC - 10:30pm start

Race for #18/Race for #21:
OKC@MIL - OKC by 14 early-4th Q
 

DrewDawg

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I don't think I need to explain why playing the starters against Orlando hurt this year's team and winning against Washington hurt future teams.
So damned if you do (played starters) and damned if you don't (played bench)?

He can't mandate the players miss shots.
 

amfox1

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(10:40pm ET update)

Race for #8:
MEM ends up tied w/NO and DAL for 7th/8th/9th. Ties will be broken by coin flip.

Race for #12:
MIA loses, DET wins, CHA loses

If SAC loses, SAC ends up tied w/CHA and MIA for 12th/13th/14th. Ties will be broken by coin flip.
If SAC wins, SAC ends up in 14th by itself.

Race for #18:
SA wins, IND wins

If LAC loses, LAC ends up in 18th by itself.
If LAC wins, LAC ends up tied w/IND and SA for 18th/19th/20th. Ties will be broken by coin flip.

Race for #21:
BOS ends up tied with OKC for 21st/22nd, and BOS will either have 21/52 or 22/51, depending on a coin flip.
 
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vicirus

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If my math is right, I believe Memphis has a 55.5% chance at keeping the pick based on the 7/8/9 tie. It’s late though, so hopefully someone else can confirm (source: tankathon). Not the greatest odds. We could have really used that Washington loss.

Edit: My calcs are pre-coin flip, which obviously has a huge bearing on the results.
 

snowmanny

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That 48 point second quarter by Sacramento isn't particularly helpful.
 

chilidawg

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And Portland comes back from 28 down to win by 5. Puts Sacramento in a 3 way tie at 12, 3.8% chance of getting 2-4! 1% chance the pick conveys to Philly.

Utah/Clippers close late in the 4th, but I'm going to bed.
 

Sprowl

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The Clippers win in OT. The end of the regular season didn't resolve the issue: the draft order of all four of the Celtics' possible first round picks remains up in the air, at least until the coins drop.

The Memphis pick is in a three-way tie at 33-49 with Dallas and New Orleans for picks #7, #8 and #9, unless one or more of these picks wins the lottery (not unlikely).

The Sacramento pick is in a three-way tie at 39-43 with Charlotte and Miami for picks #12, #13 and #14, unless one or more of these picks wins the lottery (very unlikely).

The Clippers pick is in a three-way tie at 48-34 with Indiana and San Antonio for picks #18, #19 and #20.

The Celtics pick is a two-way tie at 49-33 with Oklahoma City for picks #21 and #22.

This thread has a long way to go. Does anybody know a good incantation for coin flips?
 

wilked

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If history serves they don’t wait long. - we will know this week without much fanfare
 

In my lifetime

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So basically regardless of the draw tomorrow. There is a 26.2% chance for the Memphis pick to be 1-4 and not convey.

Then the draw is critical in determining the conveyance odds. The odds of the pick conveying:
#7: 14.7%
#8: 42.6%
#9: 73.8%

So that is some major odds movement dependant on ping pong balls. Overall right now the odds are 43.83% that the pick conveys.
 

amfox1

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Picks as of 4/11am -

7-9T (MEM)*
12-14T (SAC)*
18-20T (LAC)**
21-22T (BOS)**
51-52T (BOS)**
*subject to lottery results
**subject to coin flip

MEM - Lottery odds of top 8/9th/10th or worse pick (% don't add to 100.0):

7. (60 combos of 1,000) 83.1%, 15.1%, 1.6%
8. (60 combos of 1,000) 57.4%, 34.1%, 8.5%
9. (60 combos of 1,000) 26.2%, 46.4%, 27.3%
The coin flip makes a significant difference in expected result.

SAC - Lottery odds of 1st/2nd-4th/12th-14th pick (% don't add to 100.0):
12/13/14. (10 combos of 1,000) 1.0%, 3.7%, 95.2%
12th/13th/14th has an 86.1%/90.6%/95.2% chance of finishing in their chosen slot.
 

NomarsFool

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I would think there's a decent chance the Celtics move one or more of their picks to a team that doesn't have one this year for a future pick. It's tough, because everyone knows the Celtics have a lot of picks and other GMs will be afraid of doing something that looks stupid in the future, but I would hope there's a reasonable market. It is just very difficult to add 3-4 rookies to a team when we already have a number of players that are developmental already (TimeLord, Semi, Yabu). Part of me thinks they should draft a back-up PG for when Rozier is gone (and maybe Wannamaker) but the draft didn't seem that strong at PG where the Celtics will be picking. They could also draft Bol Bol - but do they want two developmental centers on the roster? They could really use a PF - it is just very hard to find any kind of impact payer where the Celtics will be drafting. Even with 3-4 picks.
 

benhogan

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I would think there's a decent chance the Celtics move one or more of their picks to a team that doesn't have one this year for a future pick. It's tough, because everyone knows the Celtics have a lot of picks and other GMs will be afraid of doing something that looks stupid in the future, but I would hope there's a reasonable market. It is just very difficult to add 3-4 rookies to a team when we already have a number of players that are developmental already (TimeLord, Semi, Yabu). Part of me thinks they should draft a back-up PG for when Rozier is gone (and maybe Wannamaker) but the draft didn't seem that strong at PG where the Celtics will be picking. They could also draft Bol Bol - but do they want two developmental centers on the roster? They could really use a PF - it is just very hard to find any kind of impact payer where the Celtics will be drafting. Even with 3-4 picks.
In theory, most of the 1st round picks are headed to NO in an AD trade.

The "Draft" thread has a lot of discussion in regards to draftable PGs. Finding bench ball handlers isn't that difficult. Wannamaker probably deserved a longer look then he got this season IMO
 
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