The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

BigSoxFan

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Correct, and the Clippers have a lot to play for: avoiding GSW in the 1st round.
If Spurs and OKC win out, Clips are locked into 8 seed, correct? Would be awesome if Ainge perfectly threads that needle for the 18th pick.
 

amfox1

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Picks as of 4/8am - 7-8T (MEM)*, 14 (SAC)*, 18-20T (LAC), 22 (BOS), 52 (BOS)
*subject to lottery results

Race for #8:

6. WAS 32-49 (lost 3) - vs.BOS (Tue)
7T. DAL 32-48 (won 1) - vs.PHX (Tue), @SA (Wed)
7T. MEM 32-48 (lost 1) - @DET (Tue), vs.GS (Wed)
9. NO 33-48 (won 1) - vs.GS (Tue)
BOS/GS have clinched their playoff position and have nothing to play for. PHX has clinched its top 3 lottery position and has nothing to tank for. DET needs to win to hold the #8 spot. SA is playing for playoff position.

Lottery odds of top 8/9th/10th or worse pick (% don't add to 100.0):

6. (90 combos of 1,000) 96.1%, 3.7%, 0.1%
7. (75 combos of 1,000) 85.7%, 12.9%, 1.3%
8. (60 combos of 1,000) 60.5%, 32.1%, 7.1%
9. (45 combos of 1,000) 20.2%, 50.7%, 28.9%
If two or more teams are tied, they will split the combos evenly, with any odd number determined by coin flip. For example, if all four teams lose out, WAS/DAL/MEM will each get 75 combos.

Race for #12:
12T CHA 38-42 (won 3) - @CLE (Tue), vs.ORL (Wed)
12T MIA 38-42 (lost 4) - vs.PHI (Tue), @BRK (Wed)
14. SAC 39-42 (lost 2) - @POR (Wed)
PHI has clinched its playoff position and has nothing to play for. CLE has clinched its top 3 lottery position and has nothing to tank for. Whether ORL/BRK/POR has playoff ramifications depends on the results of Tuesday's games.

Lottery odds of 1st/2nd-4th/12th-14th pick (% don't add to 100.0):
12. (15 combos of 1,000) 1.5%, 5.7%, 92.9%
13. (10 combos of 1,000) 1.0%, 3.7%, 95.2%
14. (5 combos of 1,000) 0.5%, 1.9%, 97.6%
If two teams are tied for 12th/13th, they will get 13 and 12 combos, determined by coin flip. If two teams are tied for 13th/14th, they will get 8 and 7 combos, determined by coin flip. If all three teams finish with the same record, they will each get 10 combos.

BOS has locked up the #4 seed vs. IND. BOS' 1st round pick could end up between 18-23, depending on final records and coin flips. LAC could end up between 18-22.
 
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lovegtm

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Picks as of 4/8am - 7-8T (MEM)*, 14 (SAC)*, 18-20T (LAC), 22 (BOS), 52 (BOS)
*subject to lottery results

Race for #8:

6. WAS 32-49 (lost 3) - vs.BOS (Tue)
7T. DAL 32-48 (won 1) - vs.PHX (Tue), @SA (Wed)
7T. MEM 32-48 (lost 1) - @DET (Tue), vs.GS (Wed)
9. NO 33-48 (won 1) - vs.GS (Tue)
BOS/GS have clinched their playoff position and have nothing to play for. PHX has clinched its top 3 lottery position and has nothing to tank for. DET needs to win to hold the #8 spot. SA is playing for playoff position.

Lottery odds of top 8/9th/10th or worse pick (% don't add to 100.0):

6. (90 combos of 1,000) 96.1%, 3.7%, 0.1%
7. (75 combos of 1,000) 85.7%, 12.9%, 1.3%
8. (60 combos of 1,000) 60.5%, 32.1%, 7.1%
9. (45 combos of 1,000) 20.2%, 50.7%, 28.9%
If two or more teams are tied, they will split the combos evenly, with any odd number determined by coin flip. For example, if all four teams lose out, WAS/DAL/MEM will each get 75 combos.

Race for #12:
12T CHA 38-42 (won 3) - @CLE (Tue), vs.ORL (Wed)
12T MIA 38-42 (lost 4) - vs.PHI (Tue), @BRK (Wed)
14. SAC 39-42 (lost 2) - @POR (Wed)
PHI has clinched its playoff position and has nothing to play for. CLE has clinched its top 3 lottery position and has nothing to tank for. Whether ORL/BRK/POR has playoff ramifications depends on the results of Tuesday's games.

Lottery odds of 1st/2nd-4th/12th-14th pick (% don't add to 100.0):
12. (15 combos of 1,000) 1.5%, 5.7%, 92.9%
13. (10 combos of 1,000) 1.0%, 3.7%, 95.2%
14. (5 combos of 1,000) 0.5%, 1.9%, 97.6%
If two teams are tied for 12th/13th, they will get 13 and 12 combos, determined by coin flip. If two teams are tied for 13th/14th, they will get 8 and 7 combos, determined by coin flip. If all three teams finish with the same record, they will each get 10 combos.

BOS has locked up the #4 seed vs. IND. BOS' 1st round pick could end up between 18-23, depending on final records and coin flips. LAC could end up between 18-22.
The Wizards game would be a good time for Yabu to go the full 48, on a variety of fronts.
 

InstaFace

MDLzera
Sep 27, 2016
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If Spurs and OKC win out, Clips are locked into 8 seed, correct? Would be awesome if Ainge perfectly threads that needle for the 18th pick.
Yeah, but Spurs are really playing for a Champions League spot and are out of the other competitions, so you have to assume they'll be going hard every matchday.

/pedantic
 

Red Averages

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The following players have been ruled out for Tuesday:

Kyrie
Horford
Smart
Tatum
Baynes
Morris
Hayward

So we’re left with Rozier, Brown, TL, Semi, Wannamaker, Theis, Yabu and I can’t even remember who else could possibly play.
 

InstaFace

MDLzera
Sep 27, 2016
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should probably rule out Brown if you really want to make double sure. If the Bullets sit Beal, that C's rump lineup would still have a shot.
 

DrewDawg

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should probably rule out Brown if you really want to make double sure. If the Bullets sit Beal, that C's rump lineup would still have a shot.
I think, if he plays, he'll still be on a minutes restriction. Give him some first half run then yank him and tell dudes like Hunter to start jacking 3s.
 

NomarsFool

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I'm surprised Hayward is out. I sort of want him to keep playing 30+ a game to keep getting better.
 

wilked

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Looks like most of the warriors starters will play vs the Pelicans and rest vs the Grizzlies, not exactly ideal (although I suppose it's logical)

https://www.sfchronicle.com/warriors/article/Warriors-Andre-Iguodala-Andrew-Bogut-to-rest-13751817.php
Forward Andre Iguodala (left toe soreness) and center Andrew Bogut (rest) will sit for the Warriors’ game against the Pelicans on Tuesday night.

Golden State had initially planned to rest forward Kevin Durant in New Orleans. But after Durant objected, the team decided to let him play against the Pelicans.

The Warriors are expected to rest a number of players Wednesday in Memphis, which will be Golden State’s final regular-season game. After Sunday’s rout of the Clippers, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr told reporters that he hoped to rest most of his rotation players at some point during the back-to-back set.
 

amfox1

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Tuesday games with BOS draft implications:

Race for #8/Race for #18:
WASvs.BOS

Race for #8:
DALvs.PHX
MEM@DET
NOvs.GS

Race for #12:
CHA@CLE
MIAvs.PHI

Race for #18:
HOU@OKC
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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Tuesday games with BOS draft implications:

Race for #8/Race for #18:
WASvs.BOS

Race for #8:
DALvs.PHX
MEM@DET
NOvs.GS

Race for #12:
CHA@CLE
MIAvs.PHI

Race for #18:
HOU@OKC
Betting odds look good - let's hope these play out:

Was -4.5
DAL -8
MEM +10.5
NO +9
CHA -8
MIA -5.5
OKC +2
 

jmanny24

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Why do we not want the pick to convey? Are people still holding out hope for an AD trade? Hoping Memphis is worse next year?
 

nighthob

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Why do we not want the pick to convey? Are people still holding out hope for an AD trade? Hoping Memphis is worse next year?
Because while the 2019 draft is deep in roleplayers, that roleplayer level of the draft is going to start around 5.
 

Red Averages

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Memphis up 21 on Det in the 2nd. That game appears over. Congrats to the Grizz on knocking the Pistons out of the playoffs!
 

Red Averages

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I wouldn’t reach that assumption. If Detroit starts making shots the game could turn around in a hurry.
Clearly you are mistaken. This game is long over. Noboby beats the Grizz. Memphis shooting 73% from 3 pt in the first half and Det is shooting 22%. Clearly that can't correct, it's too far of a spread. Bet the house on Memphis 2nd half points, it's a lock.
 

amfox1

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(8:15pm ET update) Tuesday games with BOS draft implications:

Race for #8/Race for #18:
WASvs.BOS - WAS by 1 at half

Race for #8:
DALvs.PHX - 8:30pm start
MEM@DET - MEM by 19 at half
NOvs.GS - just started

Race for #12:
CHA@CLE - CHA by 8 at half
MIAvs.PHI - MIA by 12 late 1st Q

Race for #18:
HOU@OKC - 9:30pm start
 
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BigSoxFan

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What a win by the Grizzlies. Just impressive stuff from a young team with nothing to play for.
 

bosox79

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Charlotte is going to win and Miami is up 20. The Suns have their B squad out there on the road in Dallas and are down 18-33 at the end of 1.
 

amfox1

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(9:30pm ET update) Tuesday games with BOS draft implications:

Race for #8/Race for #18:
WASvs.BOS - WAS loses/BOS wins

Race for #8:
DALvs.PHX - DAL by 20 mid-2nd Q
MEM@DET - MEM loses
NOvs.GS - tied at the half

Race for #12:
CHA@CLE - CHA wins
MIAvs.PHI - MIA by 20 mid-3rd Q

Race for #18:
HOU@OKC - 9:30pm start
 

BigSoxFan

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Memphis blows 2 games they should have won. With some of the unexpected wins, these last 2 games might end up being the difference of pushing the pick into 2020.
 

InstaFace

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Sep 27, 2016
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Clearly you are mistaken. This game is long over. Noboby beats the Grizz. Memphis shooting 73% from 3 pt in the first half and Det is shooting 22%. Clearly that can't correct, it's too far of a spread. Bet the house on Memphis 2nd half points, it's a lock.
This was pretty dicey for you until BigSoxFan stepped in as the closer.