The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

vicirus

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Jul 17, 2005
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SAC isnt catching them for the last playoff spot and nobody in the bottom half of the playoff bracket in east is going to pass them either. Not sure there is too much room for them to go besides finishing 8 in the west .
They’re currently 3 games back of Houston for the 3 seed. Depending on how the last dozen or so games shake out, there’s a possibility they could jump up six draft spots. I’d absolutely say it’s time to start rooting for losses. To your point, I think they could lose every game here on out and still get the 8 seed.
 

wilked

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I’m sure it’s in here somewhere, but is there a table of the odds of grizzlies pick conveying by their finishing spot?
 

chilidawg

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SAC isnt catching them for the last playoff spot and nobody in the bottom half of the playoff bracket in east is going to pass them either. Not sure there is too much room for them to go besides finishing 8 in the west .
They're essentially in a 4 way tie for the 5-8 spots, so it's easy to imagine they could end up as high as 5th in the west, which would move the pick from 18 to 21.

Also, go Orlando, they're only a game behind Sacto. Going from 14 to 13 doubles the odds of moving up into the top 4 (but also doubles the odds of #1, meaning Philly gets the pick).
 

McBride11

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Am I doing this right, dream scenario would be SAC ending up 2 after the lottery drawing and because they jumped into the top 3 moving MEM down 1 spot to finish 9th overall ? (Eg they were 8th in standings but got bumped by SAC entering top 3).?
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Am I doing this right, dream scenario would be SAC ending up 2 after the lottery drawing and because they jumped into the top 3 moving MEM down 1 spot to finish 9th overall ? (Eg they were 8th in standings but got bumped by SAC entering top 3).?
If you want Memphis to convey the pick this year, then that’s the best it could wind up for both picks. But most of us want to keep Memphis in the top 8 so it doesn’t convey this year, so starting them in the 7th spot, bumped down to 8th after Sacramento jumps to 2, would be ideal for that.
 

lexrageorge

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Am I doing this right, dream scenario would be SAC ending up 2 after the lottery drawing and because they jumped into the top 3 moving MEM down 1 spot to finish 9th overall ? (Eg they were 8th in standings but got bumped by SAC entering top 3).?
Not quite, as we don't really want the Memphis pick conveying at 9 this year. But never let the perfect be the enemy of the really good, so I'm assuming most of us here would be OK coming out with 2/9 this year as opposed to ending up at 14.
 

McBride11

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If you want Memphis to convey the pick this year, then that’s the best it could wind up for both picks. But most of us want to keep Memphis in the top 8 so it doesn’t convey this year, so starting them in the 7th spot, bumped down to 8th after Sacramento jumps to 2, would be ideal for that.
Not quite, as we don't really want the Memphis pick conveying at 9 this year. But never let the perfect be the enemy of the really good, so I'm assuming most of us here would be OK coming out with 2/9 this year as opposed to ending up at 14.
right right, less mem protections next year and none the year after. but them picking 8 allows them worst pick in hopes of improving and moving out of the cellar. thanks!
 

vicirus

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Jul 17, 2005
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.

...

Also, go Orlando, they're only a game behind Sacto. Going from 14 to 13 doubles the odds of moving up into the top 4 (but also doubles the odds of #1, meaning Philly gets the pick).
Not enough emphasis can be placed on where the teams currently at 9-12 finish (NO/LAL/CHA/MIN) who all have 31 or 32 wins. SAC and ORL are at 34. Here are the rough odds of the pick conveying between #2-4 based on where SAC finishes:

9th: 1 in 6 odds
10th: 1 in 9 odds
11th: 1 in 13 odds
12th: 1 in 18 odds
13th: 1 in 26 odds
14th: 1 in 52 odds

Finishing 13th instead of 14th doubles the chances that the pick conveys #2-4. Fingers crossed that those teams are able to pick up some wins as playoff teams rest players.
 

BigSoxFan

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Not enough emphasis can be placed on where the teams currently at 9-12 finish (NO/LAL/CHA/MIN) who all have 31 or 32 wins. SAC and ORL are at 34. Here are the rough odds of the pick conveying between #2-4 based on where SAC finishes:

9th: 1 in 6 odds
10th: 1 in 9 odds
11th: 1 in 13 odds
12th: 1 in 18 odds
13th: 1 in 26 odds
14th: 1 in 52 odds

Finishing 13th instead of 14th doubles the chances that the pick conveys #2-4. Fingers crossed that those teams are able to pick up some wins as playoff teams rest players.
Those odds are insurmountable. I would like to congratulate the Kings organization on only losing the 14th pick in the draft rather than 2-4!
 

NoXInNixon

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I would happily take the #9 pick this year from Memphis. As we have seen with Sacramento this year, there's no guarantee Memphis will be bottom six terrible next year and bottom three terrible the year after that.
 

TripleOT

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I would happily take the #9 pick this year from Memphis. As we have seen with Sacramento this year, there's no guarantee Memphis will be bottom six terrible next year and bottom three terrible the year after that.
If there is a chance at AD, the Celtics don't need MEM to be bad next year and the year after. They just need the Pels' brain trust to think so.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I would happily take the #9 pick this year from Memphis. As we have seen with Sacramento this year, there's no guarantee Memphis will be bottom six terrible next year and bottom three terrible the year after that.

The difference is the Memphis pick has far less upside than the Kings pick did. Dropping from 9 to 14 is worth the risk of possibly landing a top 3 pick.
 

BigSoxFan

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The difference is the Memphis pick has far less upside than the Kings pick did. Dropping from 9 to 14 is worth the risk of possibly landing a top 3 pick.
Yeah, #9 isn’t a bad consolation prize but you want the shot at a top 4 pick. Chances are this pick will be in New Orleans’ hands in a few months but, if that doesn’t work out, I want it going to 2021.
 

JakeRae

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I would happily take the #9 pick this year from Memphis. As we have seen with Sacramento this year, there's no guarantee Memphis will be bottom six terrible next year and bottom three terrible the year after that.
Any lottery pick next year is probably better than the #9 pick this year by virtue of this being a generally weak draft class. That’s even more true in 2021, which is potentially the first year of high school eligibility. I think you’d have to project Memphis as a playoff team next year or have a very large time value discount to reasonably want the pick to convey this year.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Weird things can happen in weaker drafts. Guys may slip through the cracks a bit easier as teams are targeting guys for need since there’s no consensus. Or teams may overvalue upside and miss out on skill, plus pretty much nobody is good at picking the internationals consistently.

The oft-maligned 2013 draft gave you CJ, Adams, Olynyk, Giannis, and Schröder from 10 through 17, and Rudy of course.

I don’t expect fireworks but with three bites at the apple I like their chances to pull out a rotation talent to backfill some depth. We’ll see how many of these picks stay in Danny’s pocket, of course.
 

InstaFace

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Kings pulled it out late. Even as shaky as Sacramento can be, Phoenix is just a whole other level of suck.

Other than a home game against Cleveland, however, the Kings don't have any games remaining against teams that they should beat handily. So there's still plenty of hope for dropping a few spots.
 

amfox1

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Update on picks as of 3/24am:

MEM 1st round pick - currently #6T, top 8 protected, 1.5 games behind NO w/9 games left (won't convey to BOS*)
SAC 1st round pick - currently #14, top 1 protected, 5.5 games behind SA w/10 games left (will convey to BOS*)
LAC 1st round pick - currently #19-22T, top 14 protected, 6.5 games ahead of SAC w/9 games left (will convey to BOS)
BOS 2nd round pick - currently #49-52T, 31-55 protected, 4.0 games behind PHI w/9 games left (won't convey to MEM)
BOS also has its own 1st round pick - currently #19-22T

MEM schedule (4H, 5A, 3 vs. sub-.460) - DAL(x2), GS(x2), POR, OKC, PHX, LAC, DET

SAC schedule (3H, 7A, 5 vs. sub-.460) - HOU(x2), NO(x2), DAL. LAL, SA, CLE, UTA, POR

LAC schedule (5H, 4A, 5 vs. sub-.460) - CLE, NYK, LAL, MIN, MIL, MEM, HOU, GS, UTA

BOS schedule (4H, 5A, 2 vs. sub-.460) - MIA(x2), IND(x2), SA, CLE, BRK, ORL, WAS

*Excludes any effects of the lottery.

Race for #8:
6T. DAL 29-44 (won 1)
6T. MEM 29-44 (lost 2)
8. WAS 30-44 (lost 4)
9. NO 31-43 (lost 1)

Race for #13:
13. ORL 35-38 (won 4)
14. SAC 36-36 (won 1)

Race for #56/3-seed:
19-22T/5-seed. BOS 43-30 (lost 3)
53/4-seed. IND 44-29 (lost 4)
56/3-seed. PHI 47-26 (lost 1)
 

InstaFace

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SAC taking on the Fakers now.
After being down 15+ for most of the second half, a mid-4Q charge draws them to within 96-98. They spend several minutes within 1 possession, miss several shots to tie the game, and with 30 seconds left, draw to within 2 after a crazy sequence: Barnes bombs a 3, Bagley gets an offensive rebound, Hield misses another 3, Bagley gets the rebound again, and finally Bogdanovic nails it on the 3rd try.

Then #KingsTown shows up: after two Lebron free throws takes it to 108-104, Bogdanovic is inbounding, looks off a perfectly open option, and... takes a 5-second violation and turnover. All over except for the free throws.

Plus Lebron had several embarrassing passes-to-nobody for turnovers, so it was both a good result and humiliating for him. A++++ would watch again.
 

amfox1

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Race for #8:
6. DAL 29-44 (won 1)
7T. MEM 30-44 (won 1)
7T. WAS 30-44 (lost 4)
9. NO 31-44 (lost 2)

Race for #13:
13. ORL 36-38 (won 5)
14. SAC 36-37 (lost 1)

Race for #56/3-seed:
48-50T/5-seed. BOS 43-31 (lost 4)
53/4-seed. IND 45-29 (won 1)
55T/3-seed. PHI 47-27 (lost 2)
 

the moops

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The 9th pick in the draft this year has a 3.7 million dollar salary. And while we may not necessarily want that pick, that money is more than any of Semi/Williams/Yabusele and a much more valuable asset.
 

BigSoxFan

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Clippers up 15 early. The pick might be officially conveying tonight. Wish these guys would actually lose a game for once.
 

amfox1

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Update on picks as of 3/27am:

LAC's 1st round pick, which was top 14 protected, will convey to BOS, as LAC has clinched a playoff spot. Currently the pick is #22. BOS also has its own 1st round pick, currently #20.

MEM 1st round pick - currently #8, top 8 protected, tied with NO w/8 games left (won't convey to BOS*)
SAC 1st round pick - currently #14, top 1 protected, 5.5 games behind SA w/8 games left (will convey to BOS*)
BOS 2nd round pick - currently #50, 31-55 protected, 3.5 games behind PHI w/7 games left (won't convey to MEM)

MEM schedule (3H, 5A, 3 vs. sub-.450) - DAL(x2), GS(x2), POR, PHX, LAC, DET

SAC schedule (3H, 5A, 3 vs. sub-.450) - HOU(x2), NO(x2), SA, CLE, UTA, POR

BOS schedule (3H, 4A, 1 vs. sub-.450) - MIA(x2), IND(x2), BRK, ORL, WAS

*Excludes any effects of the lottery.

Race for #8:
6. DAL 29-45 (lost 1)
7. WAS 30-45 (lost 5)
8. MEM 30-44 (won 1)
9. NO 31-45 (lost 3)

Race for #13:
13. MIA 36-38 (lost 1) - ORL is the #8 seed after beating MIA tonight
14. SAC 37-37 (won 1)

Race for #56/3-seed:
50/5-seed. BOS 44-31 (won 1)
53/4-seed. IND 45-29 (won 1)
56/3-seed. PHI 47-27 (lost 2)
 
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lovegtm

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Zach Lowe with a nice piece on the Kings, Fox, and how their pieces fit together going forward:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26355745/deaaron-fox-speeding-sacramento-kings-line
It's pretty funny that after looking like one of the all-time bad trades, the result of that Philly deal was that Sac will give up a #14 pick and get Fox instead of Fultz/Ball. Getting Fox instead of those other 2 is easily worth giving up a #14 for.

(I know, I know, results-oriented in the extreme, but very funny nonetheless that that trade may end up being Vlade's best move so far. Sports has a lot of crapshoot to it at the end of the day.)
 

BigSoxFan

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It's pretty funny that after looking like one of the all-time bad trades, the result of that Philly deal was that Sac will give up a #14 pick and get Fox instead of Fultz/Ball. Getting Fox instead of those other 2 is easily worth giving up a #14 for.

(I know, I know, results-oriented in the extreme, but very funny nonetheless that that trade may end up being Vlade's best move so far. Sports has a lot of crapshoot to it at the end of the day.)
It really is fun to go back and look at these deals. If the Sixers had stayed put, they're sitting here with Tatum and a late lotto pick. If the Lakers had taken Tatum at #2, they'd have Anthony Davis. Instead, Boston will probably get AD now.
 

lovegtm

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It really is fun to go back and look at these deals. If the Sixers had stayed put, they're sitting here with Tatum and a late lotto pick. If the Lakers had taken Tatum at #2, they'd have Anthony Davis. Instead, Boston will probably get AD now.
To be fair, all indications are that the Celtics would have just taken Tatum #1 if they thought he’d get picked prior to 3. Philly and LA did horrific jobs telegraphing their intentions.
 

BigSoxFan

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To be fair, all indications are that the Celtics would have just taken Tatum #1 if they thought he’d get picked prior to 3. Philly and LA did horrific jobs telegraphing their intentions.
True although that's so hard to prove. Like Ainge saying he would have taken Durant over Oden. We'll never know but you're probably right. I do wonder what Lakers do if Ainge had taken Tatum at #1. Do they take Fultz or Ball?
 

chilidawg

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It's pretty funny that after looking like one of the all-time bad trades, the result of that Philly deal was that Sac will give up a #14 pick and get Fox instead of Fultz/Ball. Getting Fox instead of those other 2 is easily worth giving up a #14 for.

(I know, I know, results-oriented in the extreme, but very funny nonetheless that that trade may end up being Vlade's best move so far. Sports has a lot of crapshoot to it at the end of the day.)
The Kings getting Hield, Giles and Jackson for Boogie looks pretty good in hindsight as well.
 

nighthob

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True although that's so hard to prove. Like Ainge saying he would have taken Durant over Oden. We'll never know but you're probably right. I do wonder what Lakers do if Ainge had taken Tatum at #1. Do they take Fultz or Ball?
At the time of the trade Ainge said that their target was still going to be there at #3. So it's a safe bet that they would have taken Tatum #1 if there were any chance the Lakers weren't going to be buying high on Big Baller.
 

bakahump

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So the Wizards have a game against the Celts end of the year. Maybe we rest a bunch of guys for the playoffs....

Who wins a Washington/Memphis Tie breaker?