That's great, but who are the Chefs?

[Devizier]

One of the nice things about having both conference games on Saturday means that the Patriots get an extra day to know their opponent. The last meeting against the Chiefs was the infamous 41-19 shellacking the Patriots endured at the beginning of last season. Things have changed considerably since then, especially on the Patriots' side. But this is still a tough matchup for the Patriots.

Anyways, I'll open this up. What's on tap for next week's matchup? What should we be looking for? What should we be hoping for, aside from an Edelman comeback and the offensive line holding up?

 

[DJnVa]

If the Pats offense is relatively healthy they should score 20+. How does KC match that without the threat of their #1 playmaker on offense? I'd imagine BB game plans to take away the KC run game and keeps on eye on Kelce.

Pats OL does their job (easier said than done) I think they win this in the neighborhood of 24-13.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Luckily, taking away a TE on the line plays well into also taking away the run.

I expect the Pats to jam the shit out of Kelce, clog the middle with traffic, and force runs to the edge.

I would then expect KC to counter with splitting Kelce wide, leading the Pats to lining up Chung on him, which I'm fine with as having no Maclin makes 1-deep safety acceptable. They can then pin their ears back and get after Smith with 1 less blocker at the LOS.

I really respect the Chiefs defense, but losing Maclin turns their offense into, well, what we've seen out of the Pats offense the last 6 weeks. A dynamic TE with no room to operate in the middle of the field.

I like the Pats going away.

 

[staz]

I'm not buying any of the KC hype, especially if Maclin is done. Look at who they've beaten during this run. This is nothing more than a tune-up game for Denver.

 

[johnmd20]

Isn't Anthony Bourdain a chef?

 

[DJnVa]

Isn't Anthony Bourdain a chef?

No, just an asshole.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

I'm not buying any of the KC hype, especially if Maclin is done. Look at who they've beaten during this run. This is nothing more than a tune-up game for Denver.

I'm not scared of the Chiefs offense without Maclin, but the defense is excellent. No. 2 in weighted DVOA and 3rd in points against. They've held opposing offenses to a passer rating of 76. If the Pats can't figure how to block and/or get receivers open very quickly so Brady can get the ball out, it's going to be another long day for the offense.

 

[86spike]

I'm not buying any of the KC hype, especially if Maclin is done. Look at who they've beaten during this run. This is nothing more than a tune-up game for Denver.

I've been beating that drum for a week. I actually thought their streak would end yesterday but Houston went out and shit in their pants every three minutes and KC moves on.

Their Defense is very solid but the Offense (especially without Maclin) is built around runs (which NE can stop), occasional yards-after-catch big chunk plays (which NE's secondary will limit) and Alex Smith scrambling for first downs 2 or 3 times a game (which no one seems to plan for - but I bet Patricia will).

I think the Pats will hold KC to under 20 points and while the KC D will make it hard, NE will out score them and win.

It will be a physical game, but very winnable for NE.

 

[Norm loves Vera]

Getting Endelman and Amendola back at 80-90% will be a huge lift. 2 more weeks play study by Jackson and a somewhat rested Brady and I love the Patriot's chances. Last year's blow out included 3 touchdowns for Jamal Charles(1 run/2 pass) and over 100 rushing by Knile Davis. Kelce had almost 100 yards and a TD. That game was the turning point for the Patriot's Super Bowl season. Saturday night will be a statement game for the Patriots.

 

[Gorton Fisherman]

Getting Endelman and Amendola back

Andelman?

 

[wiffleballhero]

I am assuming that by Thursday I'll be convinced that KC is the greatest team in a decade, but right now, I only really worry about Brady's ability to get the ball out of his hand before someone smokes past whoever is at left tackle.

 

[Norm loves Vera]

Andelman?

yeah.. that's what I get for posting in a little bit of a hurry and a lot hungover.

 

[Gorton Fisherman]

Nothing wrong with being hungover. I salute you, sir.

 

[joe dokes]

I've been beating that drum for a week. I actually thought their streak would end yesterday but Houston went out and shit in their pants every three minutes and KC moves on.
Their Defense is very solid but the Offense (especially without Maclin) is built around runs (which NE can stop), occasional yards-after-catch big chunk plays (which NE's secondary will limit) and Alex Smith scrambling for first downs 2 or 3 times a game (which no one seems to plan for - but I bet Patricia will).
I think the Pats will hold KC to under 20 points and while the KC D will make it hard, NE will out score them and win.
It will be a physical game, but very winnable for NE.

We know (or think we do) that BB schemes to take something away. Seems to me that the critical piece for KC's offense is Smith's running ability. He can't (or won't) make low-ish percentage throws (really tight windows, etc.) . If they shadow him or whatever great defenses do to stop running QBs, I dont think KC gets more than a handful of FGs.

 

[JimD]

I'm glad they are getting a tougher matchup in the divisional round. I had no interest in having flaws masked by beating up on an inferior team. If they convincingly beat the Chiefs then we'll know we have a championship contender. If they lose to KC, then I'd rather get it over with now than to lose to the fucking Broncos in Denver.

 

[DJnVa]

In the Chiefs last 5 games of the season and last night, they had no 200 yard passer, 100 yard rusher, and just one 100 yard receiver--Kelce yesterday.

 

[theXman]

I took a look at the one game Maclin missed this year to see how they adjusted their offensive attack: Week 7 vs. Pittsburgh w/ Landry Jones.

Chiefs ended up winning 23-13, though it was close heading into the 4th quarter and the Chiefs were only able to generate 9 points by halftime.

Chiefs ran it 29 times, threw it 32 and as you'd think, Kelce was the #1 target. West was able to get 110 on 22 attempts and the Chiefs benefitted greatly from short fields caused by 2 Jones INTs and a fumble.

Nothing ground breaking - but the Chiefs O only getting 23 against a very weak Steelers D and generating a +3 TO margin vs. a sub-replacement level QB is encouraging.

Box score and highlights below:

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2015102504/2015/REG7/steelers@chiefs/stats

 

[pokey_reese]

These guys very much live and die by turnovers. They take it away a lot and hold onto it well, which helps keep games close, even if they aren't doing a lot with them. Yesterday they had five turnovers and a kick return TD, and put up 'only' 30 points (though the Hou D has been great lately), but they did top 300 yards on offense. I think that the Pats can absolutely win this game, and obviously the KC defense is the unit that scares you the most, but the offense is good on its own. People realize that they had almost the same offensive DVOA as the Pats, right? Over the second half of the season, KC outscored the Pats by an average of 3 points per game, and they faced a significantly tougher slate of defenses over the year. This is a very even match up in New England, should be a hell of a game.

 

[Stitch01]

Pats win unless they end up -2 or worse on turnovers. KC doesn't have the offensive personnel to effectively attack this Pats defense and the Pats score under 20 at home like never. Think this is like 27-14 or something like that, probably will feel like more of a grind than the score says

 

[theXman]

Maclin ACL not torn - could play on Saturday

 

[semsox]

Based on how it looked and the talk up leading up to the MRI results, you'd have to think best case scenario for KC is a pretty severely limited Maclin

 

[dcmissle]

If he can play effectively one week after high ankle sprain, hats off to him. I doubt it.

There is going to be a lot of bullshit thrown around -- Ben going to Lourdes, for example. There was last week -- cast off Dalton, Beast gonna play. Don't buy it.

 

[nivek]

Great googly moogly. I know they will down play this, but how much of last season's debacle in KC will BB use for motivation?

 

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

I just watched the Maclin injury for the first time - as he's going down he grabs his leg right below his knee. If it's "only" a high ankle sprain, it's VERY high - I'd be shocked if he gave the Chiefs anything this week.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Will read thread later, but the thread title is amazing.

 

[Toe Nash]

I'm not scared of the Chiefs offense without Maclin, but the defense is excellent. No. 2 in weighted DVOA and 3rd in points against. They've held opposing offenses to a passer rating of 76. If the Pats can't figure how to block and/or get receivers open very quickly so Brady can get the ball out, it's going to be another long day for the offense.

Here's their season:
W @ HOU (Hoyer benched)
L v DEN
L @ GB (Rodgers 5 TDs)
L @ CIN
L v CHI
L @ Min
then wins:
PIT with no Ben
Detroit in London
Denver with no Ware or Talib (Peyton hurt)
@ SD
BUF
@ Oak
SD
@ Bal (Jimmy Clausen start)
CLE
OAK
HOU again (Hoyer with the worst playoff performance basically ever)

Oakland is a solid team but I'm not too impressed with any of those wins. They're good but not scary and should be taken care of, especially with no Maclin.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

My guess is Pats scheme to take Kelce away, and bet that their front 7 (which is probably more like a front 6 with an extra DB on Kelce) can contain the run. They don't spy a ton, but Collins spying Smith on third downs seems possible to me.

Big question to me is on other side of the ball: can Pats line hold at all against a pretty tough pass rush? Like many, I see this coming down to health of "Andleman" and Amendola to provide some threats that free up Gronk.

Betting today I'd think 24-17 Pats. Could imagine D holding KC to less than that, though

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Weather service watching for a coastal storm Saturday/Sunday. Still a ways out for anything set in stone.

 

[speedracer]

We know (or think we do) that BB schemes to take something away. Seems to me that the critical piece for KC's offense is Smith's running ability. He can't (or won't) make low-ish percentage throws (really tight windows, etc.) . If they shadow him or whatever great defenses do to stop running QBs, I dont think KC gets more than a handful of FGs.

Pats have done a decent job of this in the past vs. Rodgers and Wilson. Maybe nothing so extreme as using a 2-man pass rush (which happened for a few plays in the GB game a few years back), but make sure the ends don't go flying upfield.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Weather service watching for a coastal storm Saturday/Sunday. Still a ways out for anything set in stone.

Looks like it will be close. As of now, it looks ok Saturday with the magic snow day phrase wintry mix on Sunday. Snow should be fine, but the last thing I want is a big rain or sleet storm.

 

[joe dokes]

Pats have done a decent job of this in the past vs. Rodgers and Wilson. Maybe nothing so extreme as using a 2-man pass rush (which happened for a few plays in the GB game a few years back), but make sure the ends don't go flying upfield.

He runs on 3rd down more than any other and vastly more often in long yardage spots. 34 1st downs on 73 rushing plays (avg 8yds to go). Those are back-breakers. Stop most of those, and I think KC's offense stalls.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAl03/rushing-plays/2015/

 

[tims4wins]

First off, amazing thread title.

A few thoughts:

- As mentioned above, KC thrives on turning it over defensively and not turning it over offensively
- Will be a big matchup for Chung on Kelce, although I think he will get some help. From watching the Texans game it seems like they like Kelce more on crossing routes than vertical routes, which plays into Chung's strength
- Chiefs also give up a lot of sacks (partly due to Smith's mobility - not dissimilar to Wilson and Seattle), which plays well for the Pats since pass rush is generally a strength

We have no idea what the Pats are gonna look like health-wise, but if Edelman and Amendola are a reasonable approximation of themselves, I like the Pats going away. There is always the possibility of a 2009 Ravens type of game though if the Pats aren't healthy and some things go bad early.

 

[Carmine Hose]

 

[dynomite]

- Will be a big matchup for Chung on Kelce, although I think he will get some help. From watching the Texans game it seems like they like Kelce more on crossing routes than vertical routes, which plays into Chung's strength

I think this is the key to our defensive approach. One way or another, we need to simply take Kelce out of the game and force Smith to go elsewhere.

I would expect a mix of approaches, including chips at the line to disrupt his timing, LBs dropping into short zones to take away passing lanes, and double-coverage as well.

Given their struggles against Delanie Walker a few weeks ago (and Kelce's 8 catch, 93 yard, 1 TD showing last year against us), I'm sure Patricia has been reviewing that effort and identifying flaws that could be helpful here.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Looks like it will be close. As of now, it looks ok Saturday with the magic snow day phrase wintry mix on Sunday. Snow should be fine, but the last thing I want is a big rain or sleet storm.

Weather underground is predicting significant precipitation (or at least 80% chance) right at game time.

 

[Red Averages]

Does anyone think the Chiefs can come from behind to win if they go down by ten points? Seems their only chance in this one is to go with the keep it low scoring, grind it out for field position type mentality. If the Pats can score early (and I believe they will), I like them running away with it.

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

Just to answer the "thread title means what?" question some may be asking...


And to add content: I do hope the Pats continue their excellent ball security of the 2015 regular season this weekend. This game, against this team, would be a bad time to hope we get any breaks if we put the ball on the ground.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Worrying about team health in this game is a given for obvious reasons.

The only other things that worry me are:
1. Weather conditions - the great equalizer and a factor that the team can't control. I believe the Pats are the better team so anything that could add a degree of randomness to the game is a bad thing for the pats.
2. Special Teams - The Pats ST units have not exactly covered themselves in glory during the last 1/3 of the season. A Chiefs special teams score or even a big momentum/field position changing play really scares me.

 

[m0ckduck]

Weather underground is predicting significant precipitation (or at least 80% chance) right at game time.

Unclear in my mind whom crappy weather would benefit. Conventional wisdom might say the better rushing team (KC). But you could also build a case for the home team with a weather-proven QB and coaching staff better skilled at making in-game adjustments (NE). Neither team has a big vertical stretch-the-field threat to be neutralized, and both look to struggle against the other team's pass rush, so seems like a wash in many respects.

I sort of imagine slippery conditions inhibiting scrambling QBs like Smith and Russell Wilson given how much lateral footwork is involved in scrambling outside the pocket and hitting the edge, but I'm not sure if this is true to fact.

 

[dynomite]

1. Weather conditions - the great equalizer and a factor that the team can't control. I believe the Pats are the better team so anything that could add a degree of randomness to the game is a bad thing for the pats.

That said if snowy conditions really do disrupt the pass rush, I would say that's a clear advantage for the Patriots.

 

[wiffleballhero]

Field turf is not really very slippery in the rain. There is no mud to slide on and, unlike ancient, crappy turf, the water goes through and there is enough depth to the turf to get your spikes into it. 'Ice pellets' (as WU says) are another story altogether.

 

[Slow Rheal]

I'm really looking forward to seeing how the crash course in learning the offense, over the last month and a half, will benefit Keshawn Martin and James White now that they've got some healthy back around them. Martin in the five wide spread and James White in play action bubble screens and stuff like that should be a huge beneficiary of having Edelman/Amendola/Gronk all on the field at the same time.

 

[The Price Is Wrong]

- As mentioned above, KC thrives on turning it over defensively and not turning it over offensively

To put some numbers on this:

KC:
- 15 turnovers (7 INT, 8 FL on 15 FF), 2nd in NFL. 7.1% of drives, 2nd in NFL.
- 29 TOs created (22 INT (!), 7 FR on 19 FF), 5th in NFL. 15.3% of drives, 3rd in NFL.

NE:
- 14 turnovers (7 INT, 7 FL on 14 FF), 1st in NFL. 5.7% of drives, 1st in NFL.
- 21 TOs created (12 INT, 9 FR on 23 FF), 22nd in NFL. 10.5%, 23rd in NFL.

In a word, yikes.

 

[amarshal2]

If Hightower, Jones, McCourty and Chung are all 90%+ and the team plays well (plus no give aways to set up a short field by the offense) I expect the Chiefs to score somewhere in the range of 13-17 points. Basically I think the Chiefs are limited enough without Maclin/Charles and the Pats' D is good enough to only give up a couple scoring drives with around one of them getting into the end zone. If those key guys are limited or the Chiefs get some big turn overs or special teams plays then the Pats might need to score deeper into the 20s to win the game.

On the flip side, assuming no big turn overs or ST plays, the Pats offense I would expect to score in the low to mid 20s. High 20's seems possible but I don't really see them getting into the 30's against the Chiefs D and I don't see them looking like they did in Miami/NY unless Edelman re-injures himself and Amendola is gimpy.

Basically, I like the Vegas spread with total scoring at or under 40 points.

With that, here's to the Pats winning 38-35.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

If Hightower, Jones, McCourty and Chung are all 90%+ and the team plays well (plus no give aways to set up a short field by the offense) I expect the Chiefs to score somewhere in the range of 13-17 points. Basically I think the Chiefs are limited enough without Maclin/Charles and the Pats' D is good enough to only give up a couple scoring drives with around one of them getting into the end zone. If those key guys are limited or the Chiefs get some big turn overs or special teams plays then the Pats might need to score deeper into the 20s to win the game.

On the flip side, assuming no big turn overs or ST plays, the Pats offense I would expect to score in the low to mid 20s. High 20's seems possible but I don't really see them getting into the 30's against the Chiefs D and I don't see them looking like they did in Miami/NY unless Edelman re-injures himself and Amendola is gimpy.

Basically, I like the Vegas spread with total scoring at or under 40 points.

With that, here's to the Pats winning 38-35.

This is pretty much exactly where I am in regards to what I expect each offense to put on. But it really does hammer home how big a non-offense score could be in this game. I'll be holding my breath on every special teams play this weekend.

 

[Ed Hillel]

If it really rainstorms with winds, this team can't catch a fucking break. A rainstorm with wind would tip the scale in favor of KC imo, though KC would still struggle mightily to score. Meanwhile, Denver is looking fine weatherwise for Peyton. Fuck it, Tom beat Roger, now he can beat God.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

If it really rainstorms with winds, this team can't catch a fucking break. A rainstorm with wind would tip the scale in favor of KC imo, though KC would still struggle mightily to score. Meanwhile, Denver is looking fine weatherwise for Peyton. Fuck it, Tom beat Roger, now he can beat God.

I'm all for anything that keeps them from calling bombs to Lafell or TE fades.

 

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

First off, amazing thread title.

A few thoughts:

- As mentioned above, KC thrives on turning it over defensively and not turning it over offensively
- Will be a big matchup for Chung on Kelce, although I think he will get some help. From watching the Texans game it seems like they like Kelce more on crossing routes than vertical routes, which plays into Chung's strength
- Chiefs also give up a lot of sacks (partly due to Smith's mobility - not dissimilar to Wilson and Seattle), which plays well for the Pats since pass rush is generally a strength

We have no idea what the Pats are gonna look like health-wise, but if Edelman and Amendola are a reasonable approximation of themselves, I like the Pats going away. There is always the possibility of a 2009 Ravens type of game though if the Pats aren't healthy and some things go bad early.

While the Pats could certainly lose this game, I find it hard to believe anything like the '09 Ravens debacle could happen - that team seemed to be weak mentally (Belichick standing next to Brady on the sidelines of the Saints blowout saying something along the lines of "I just can't get these guys to play for me") and they had lost Welker the week before. They played that game like they wanted it to be over once they got down - I don't see this group folding up the tents if they are behind.

 

[Sportsbstn]

That said if snowy conditions really do disrupt the pass rush, I would say that's a clear advantage for the Patriots.

Not only the pass rush but it provides a big advantage to receivers who can run good routes, especially making cuts. It can be slippery for the receiver, but it is much worse for the cornerback to try to react to.

 

[amarshal2]

After watching the Broncos running game get going in the snow while Patriots defenders suddenly had a lot of difficulty tackling I'm sure I don't want to see weather that turns this into a ground game. Brady has always done very well dealing with snow and reasonable gusts of wind but if it gets extreme I'll be worried.

Great googily moogily!