"That is exactly what they say it's like when you freeze to death" - FSG's comfort zone

TomRicardo

rusty cohlebone
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What is their comfort zone?

I don't really get where their lines are. What are they looking for?

Example - It seems like they are in for Bregman for over 150/6 but they didn't want to go over 25/1 for Teoscar last year. It seems like they are losing for some discount even if they over spend by a lot like Yoshida.

Is it some reclamation project of over 30 somerthing position player for 6 to 7 years in the 20-30 million dollar range?
 

jbupstate

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Dec 1, 2022
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New York, USA
Why do people crap on Yoshida as an over pay but want the Sox to extend their budget for
free agents?

They identified Yoshida as a must have and blew everyone out of the water to get their guy. It was an overpay but what was required to close the deal. It’s not working out as they hoped.

Seems like everyone (including me) wants them to flex their financial muscles even if it might be a little crazy. Gotta take some risks. But some moves may not pay off and could lead to problems down the road… like not signing Casas or Anthony.
 

chawson

Hoping for delivery
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Aug 1, 2006
5,184
Why do people crap on Yoshida as an over pay but want the Sox to extend their budget for
free agents?

They identified Yoshida as a must have and blew everyone out of the water to get their guy. It was an overpay but what was required to close the deal. It’s not working out as they hoped.

Seems like everyone (including me) wants them to flex their financial muscles even if it might be a little crazy. Gotta take some risks. But some moves may not pay off and could lead to problems down the road… like not signing Casas or Anthony.
Not just Yoshida but every free agent we’ve signed or extended for more than $60 million over the last 10 years. Including Devers now.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Jan 13, 2021
15,555
Why do people crap on Yoshida as an over pay but want the Sox to extend their budget for
free agents?

They identified Yoshida as a must have and blew everyone out of the water to get their guy. It was an overpay but what was required to close the deal. It’s not working out as they hoped.

Seems like everyone (including me) wants them to flex their financial muscles even if it might be a little crazy. Gotta take some risks. But some moves may not pay off and could lead to problems down the road… like not signing Casas or Anthony.
Well, if they had signed Soto for $1.4b I doubt anyone would be giving the Sox kudos.
 

The_Dali

New Member
Jul 2, 2021
170
Why do people crap on Yoshida as an over pay but want the Sox to extend their budget for
free agents?

They identified Yoshida as a must have and blew everyone out of the water to get their guy. It was an overpay but what was required to close the deal. It’s not working out as they hoped.

Seems like everyone (including me) wants them to flex their financial muscles even if it might be a little crazy. Gotta take some risks. But some moves may not pay off and could lead to problems down the road… like not signing Casas or Anthony.
I think the difference is they valued him waaaay more than every other team. So they kinda had a completely out of whack valuation on him.
 

Beomoose

is insoxicated
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May 28, 2006
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You know, if you stab a man in the dead of winter, steam will rise up from the wounds.
 

JCizzle

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Dec 11, 2006
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Yes, that’s called an overpay.
For a middling talent. I don't think most folks get excited about flexing financial muscle on a low/mid tier talent. Especially when the flaws become immediately apparent (i.e. an inability to play in the field).
 

TheDogMan

New Member
Oct 25, 2024
145
Connecticut
Why do people crap on Yoshida as an over pay but want the Sox to extend their budget for
free agents?

They identified Yoshida as a must have and blew everyone out of the water to get their guy. It was an overpay but what was required to close the deal. It’s not working out as they hoped.

Seems like everyone (including me) wants them to flex their financial muscles even if it might be a little crazy. Gotta take some risks. But some moves may not pay off and could lead to problems down the road… like not signing Casas or Anthony.
Because Yoshida is a 1 tool albatross. Probably the biggest blunder of the Bloom era. I don't blame him for Mookie that was ownership not Chaim.
 

Harry Hooper

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The Yoshida deal and the lack of pitching development is probably what got Bloom fired.
The thousands of empty seats in Fenway for a September double-header with the Yankees certainly got JWH' to focus on the state of the club, but that was an event unlikely to be repeated for multiple reasons.
 

Mike473

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Jul 31, 2006
201
The thousands of empty seats in Fenway for a September double-header with the Yankees certainly got JWH' to focus on the state of the club, but that was an event unlikely to be repeated for multiple reasons.
One thing the Red Sox have done the last few seasons is make things fun early on. Imagine last season if they fell out of things early? The worst case for ownership is a bad start, especially if they don't make any major moves during the offseason. If they fall out, you will see a lot of empty seats and apathy. Frustration is building. I don't think that is the most likely scenario. They should be able to stay close to .500 one would think and avoid that fate.
 

Ale Xander

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Oct 31, 2013
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One thing the Red Sox have done the last few seasons is make things fun early on. Imagine last season if they fell out of things early? The worst case for ownership is a bad start, especially if they don't make any major moves during the offseason. If they fall out, you will see a lot of empty seats and apathy. Frustration is building. I don't think that is the most likely scenario. They should be able to stay close to .500 one would think and avoid that fate.
I love how they sandwiched the Fenway Open House (annual plea for selling season tickets) between signing Chapman and not signing Fried or Soto
 

The Mort Report

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@TomRicardo bud, take a bunch of edibles/shots, get away from your keyboard and just chill my brother. Why do you let a sports team that you have zero control over affect your life this much?? I've always respected you as a poster, but you've gone off the deep end recently. I'm serious, and I'd love an answer, how do the red Sox realistically improve?
 

zenax

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Apr 12, 2023
588
If the Red Sox had realized they had almost no chance of acquiring Soto and concentrated instead on improving areas of the team that really need improving, they might have gotten somewhere.
 

WilhelmScream

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Dec 22, 2022
61
Watertown, MA
@TomRicardo bud, take a bunch of edibles/shots, get away from your keyboard and just chill my brother. Why do you let a sports team that you have zero control over affect your life this much?? I've always respected you as a poster, but you've gone off the deep end recently. I'm serious, and I'd love an answer, how do the red Sox realistically improve?
by trading Devers of course.
 

astrozombie

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Sep 12, 2022
788
It's pretty clear that their comfort zone is staying in that 20-11th in payroll, top 3 in revenue area. Adding Fried doesn't help that. Adding Soto doesn't help that. Adding Burnes doesn't help that. And given the absolute loyalty of some fans, there is no reason to change anything else.
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
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Jul 15, 2005
25,374
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You guys know better than me but is it just possible that Breslow doesn't see this year as a window year and only wanted to go hard after Soto because of his age? Adding a 30 year old pitcher doesn't help you as much 2 years from now when you feel like you're potentially ready for a WS.

If that is their assessment, sign very expensive 1 or 2 or 3 year deals, hold onto your eggs, and just be opportunistic with trades. From the outside looking in, it feels like the Sox are just operating like a rebuild team, not a team who thinks they can win.
 

TomRicardo

rusty cohlebone
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Feb 6, 2006
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@TomRicardo bud, take a bunch of edibles/shots, get away from your keyboard and just chill my brother. Why do you let a sports team that you have zero control over affect your life this much?? I've always respected you as a poster, but you've gone off the deep end recently. I'm serious, and I'd love an answer, how do the red Sox realistically improve?
The Red Sox are not in a spot at this point in the offseason where they are a free agency move or two away from relevance. Once Soto and Fried signed away, there was simply not enough wins in the free agents left to make the swing required. The pitchers left are going to represent about a win or two improvement at most. Teoscar or Santander are going to be filling the hole left by O'Neill if the Red Sox are going play Anthony this season. Right now, we are most likely going through another season of squinting and seeing the playoffs in July for as late season swoon when the Red Sox get an AL East loaded schedule with a west coast trip in August and September.

There are real structural issues with the Red Sox organization, the main one is there is only one serious SP prospect after three years of being terrible. That prospect is now out because of Tommy John Surgery. They have grabbed a couple of AAAA flyers last year (these are great depth moves but not solving the main problem) like Fitts. Sometimes these guys emerge like Kutter Crawford into real rotation pieces but you need to give the guys run instead of filling the hole with a reclamation project.

The second biggest problem, is the Red Sox don't have anyone on their roster who can effectively hit LHP. Even the mythical "healthy" Trevor Story doesn't have the bat anymore to dig them out of this hole. The current roster without O'Neill hit .679 OPS vs Lefties last season. Even if you somehow sneak into the playoffs with Powerball winning levels of RNG, a team like the Yankees are going make the Red Sox look like Belgium trying to fend off a German offensive.

There are some payroll issues but they have plenty of money to spend and haven't been able to. Pretty much every major contract they signed after moving on from Mookie has been a disaster. Sale, Story, and Yoshida have been abject failures and Devers looks like it is going to be the very contract that has paralyzed them in free agency when you project it forward. The inflation on top tier free agents still hasn't clocked by Kennedy and FSG who flubbed every offseason since Kennedy was put in charge.

At this point, Boston is no longer a spot for free agents looking to win. It is going to take years to try to rebuild that. They have been running the team like 2018 was last year for the last six years except they have been bleeding away talent. The only elite talent performance they had on the roster last year is Duran. Devers, Story, and Giolito are years removed from the last time they broke 5+ WAR.

There are reasons to think they will be a bit better with Casas returning and some of the prospects graduating but I am not sure what to say. There are definitely some possible trades to that be made to possibly change the situation but there aren't any golden bullets left in free agency. From an ownership level this team has been severely mismanaged since Sam Kennedy was named CEO.
 
Last edited:

OCD SS

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You guys know better than me but is it just possible that Breslow doesn't see this year as a window year and only wanted to go hard after Soto because of his age? Adding a 30 year old pitcher doesn't help you as much 2 years from now when you feel like you're potentially ready for a WS.

If that is their assessment, sign very expensive 1 or 2 or 3 year deals, hold onto your eggs, and just be opportunistic with trades. From the outside looking in, it feels like the Sox are just operating like a rebuild team, not a team who thinks they can win.
I think the ZIPS projection for Soto had him worth ~ $720M over the life of the contract, so the Sox offering $700M is still them looking to squeeze excess value out of the deal, and not going over (accepting some pretty large error bars on that projection); so it supports your take, as much as we may hate that.

edit to add what I’m responding to.
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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I have think the ZIPS projection for Soto had him worth ~ $720M over the life of the contract, so the Sox offering $700M is still them looking to squeeze excess value out of the deal, and not going over.
Ah yes, those sneaky FO guys certainly based their 15 year offer through age 40 on trying to shave off a few million from a ZIPS projection.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
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Jan 13, 2021
15,555
You guys know better than me but is it just possible that Breslow doesn't see this year as a window year and only wanted to go hard after Soto because of his age? Adding a 30 year old pitcher doesn't help you as much 2 years from now when you feel like you're potentially ready for a WS.

If that is their assessment, sign very expensive 1 or 2 or 3 year deals, hold onto your eggs, and just be opportunistic with trades. From the outside looking in, it feels like the Sox are just operating like a rebuild team, not a team who thinks they can win.
Possibly, but if you never make the necessary additions, you will never have a window year.
 

OCD SS

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Lifetime Member
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Ah yes, those sneaky FO guys certainly based their 15 year offer through age 40 on trying to shave off a few million from a ZIPS projection.
I think it points to them being disciplined and going to the point they thought they saw value, but not overbidding (especially if they were just the stalking horse to get him the largest offer in NYC).
 

sezwho

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Jul 20, 2005
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I think it points to them being disciplined and going to the point they thought they saw value, but not overbidding (especially if they were just the stalking horse to get him the largest offer in NYC).
They apparently stopped stalking about 100m light, so any value I hoped might at least have come from their participation was in fact zero (edit - not saying you thought this happened)
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
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Sep 20, 2005
8,919
Mets looking at Pivetta, per Heyman.

This would seem to confirm that they out on Burnes.
 

sezwho

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Jul 20, 2005
2,736
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I wonder if Redbirds participation, given the evolving nature of these fully guaranteed contracts, is having an outsized effect.

A private equity operation has some very different bylaws than some billionaire who lives on his yacht. They would literally need to take that money off the investment table and put it into some very secure trust, I assume. This would make me a very sad private equity investor.
 

pciprotti

New Member
Sep 8, 2008
6
The Red Sox are not in a spot at this point in the offseason where they are a free agency move or two away from relevance. Once Soto and Fried signed away, there was simply not enough wins in the free agents left to make the swing required. The pitchers left are going to represent about a win or two improvement at most. Teoscar or Santander are going to be filling the hole left by O'Neill if the Red Sox are going play Anthony this season. Right now, we are most likely going through another season of squinting and seeing the playoffs in July for as late season swoon when the Red Sox get an AL East loaded schedule with a west coast trip in August and September.

There are real structural issues with the Red Sox organization, the main one is there is only one serious SP prospect after three years of being terrible. That prospect is now out because of Tommy John Surgery. They have grabbed a couple of AAAA flyers last year (these are great depth moves but not solving the main problem) like Fitts. Sometimes these guys emerge like Kutter Crawford into real rotation pieces but you need to give the guys run instead of filling the hole with a reclamation project.

The second biggest problem, is the Red Sox don't have anyone on their roster who can effectively hit LHP. Even the mythical "healthy" Trevor Story doesn't have the bat anymore to dig them out of this hole. The current roster without O'Neill hit .679 OPS vs Lefties last season. Even if you somehow sneak into the playoffs with Powerball winning levels of RNG, a team like the Yankees are going make the Red Sox look like Belgium trying to fend off a German offensive.

There are some payroll issues but they have plenty of money to spend and haven't been able to. Pretty much every major contract they signed after moving on from Mookie has been a disaster. Sale, Story, and Yoshida have been abject failures and Devers looks like it is going to be the very contract that has paralyzed them in free agency when you project it forward. The inflation on top tier free agents still hasn't clocked by Kennedy and FSG who flubbed every offseason since Kennedy was put in charge.

At this point, Boston is no longer a spot for free agents looking to win. It is going to take years to try to rebuild that. They have been running the team like 2018 was last year for the last six years except they have been bleeding away talent. The only elite talent performance they had on the roster last year is Duran. Devers, Story, and Giolito are years removed from the last time they broke 5+ WAR.

There are reasons to think they will be a bit better with Casas returning and some of the prospects graduating but I am not sure what to say. There are definitely some possible trades to that be made to possibly change the situation but there aren't any golden bullets left in free agency. From an ownership level this team has been severely mismanaged since Sam Kennedy was named CEO.
I have to agree with most of this. When you're building a team you have to be great at something.....

Are you good at developing your top prospects into stars?
Are you good at dealing prospects for near-breakout players?
Are you committed to paying top dollars for premium players that you can anchor around?
Are you good at dealing for undervalued prospects with a reasonable shot to make it in your team's environment?
Are you good at nibbling around the edges in FA to resurrect players of depressed value?

I don't see the Sox being good at ANY of these since 2018. And I think the results speak to this.
 

TheDogMan

New Member
Oct 25, 2024
145
Connecticut
@TomRicardo bud, take a bunch of edibles/shots, get away from your keyboard and just chill my brother. Why do you let a sports team that you have zero control over affect your life this much?? I've always respected you as a poster, but you've gone off the deep end recently. I'm serious, and I'd love an answer, how do the red Sox realistically improve?
The thing is that for many of us the Sox are irrationally important. We can not help it. The highs are higher the lows are lower. They are generational, connecting father to son to grandfather. I can't rationalize. All I can say is that the misery of 2020 was made exponentially worse for me by a 60 game season wherein I was confined to never seeing a live game anywhere. As bad as they were that year I was compelled to watch. Frustrated and angry by the last few years, you bet I am. Begging and praying for the Sox to add what they need to compete and beat the Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers. Like many of you I have paid too large a portion of my disposable income on this team. Dammit the Sox owe us all.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
I have to agree with most of this. When you're building a team you have to be great at something.....

Are you good at developing your top prospects into stars?
Are you good at dealing prospects for near-breakout players?
Are you committed to paying top dollars for premium players that you can anchor around?
Are you good at dealing for undervalued prospects with a reasonable shot to make it in your team's environment?
Are you good at nibbling around the edges in FA to resurrect players of depressed value?

I don't see the Sox being good at ANY of these since 2018. And I think the results speak to this.
1. Duran, Devers, Houck, literally all-stars. Abreu. Probably more on the way this year.
2. Results on Crochet are a bit premature but...
3. Devers
4. Abreu
5. Eovaldi, Wacha
 

The Mort Report

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Aug 5, 2007
8,587
Concord
The thing is that for many of us the Sox are irrationally important. We can not help it. The highs are higher the lows are lower. They are generational, connecting father to son to grandfather. I can't rationalize. All I can say is that the misery of 2020 was made exponentially worse for me by a 60 game season wherein I was confined to never seeing a live game anywhere. As bad as they were that year I was compelled to watch. Frustrated and angry by the last few years, you bet I am. Begging and praying for the Sox to add what they need to compete and beat the Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers. Like many of you I have paid too large a portion of my disposable income on this team. Dammit the Sox owe us all.
Oh I hear you, my frat house at UConn barely survived 04 ha. Though once I got into my late 20's/early 30's I just realized there is no point in letting something I can't control get me completely worked up. Yes, I'm not all sunflowers and rainbows(I have not been kind to the Bruins this year over in the "Stache), but I never let it change my mood. Then again, it's always interesting being in game threads, what things people get irrationally upset about consistently, so it's par for the course around here. I'm a bartender, I want everyone to chill, have a good time and enjoy themselves lol