Terry Coming Up Rozes

BigSoxFan

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I'm not on the trade Kyrie bandwagon, but I don't think trading him would necessarily be counterproductive. It would largely depend on the player coming back and if the improvement at that position is greater than the drop off from Kyrie to Rozier.
Fair enough but what available player can offer enough of an upgrade over Horford, Tatum, Brown, Hayward to make trading Kyrie worth it? Maybe Kawhi but who goes to the bench in that scenario?
 

joe dokes

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My original idea was Rozier/27 for 13, which I think is pretty fair. He’s young enough to be part of the Clippers’ rebuild but certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he weren’t interested. This is a team that currently has no long-term answer at PG. It’s possible that they would prefer a guy like Sexton but he’s light years away from being as good as Rozier is now so trading for Rozier would give them a better player and allow them to go in a different direction at #12. Should be interesting to see.
I'm not as up on draft potential as many here, but losing a year of Rozier actually playing to get to 13 doesn't seem like that much of a return. Am i just underestimating that?
 

BigSoxFan

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I think Rozier and Lou Williams would be an absolutely terrible fit. I don't get the Rozier to LAC rumors at all.
Lou Williams is 32 in October and should be coming off the bench. You don’t worry about his fit with Rozier when considering a deal like this. And he could easily be moved if it ever became an issue.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Fair enough but what available player can offer enough of an upgrade over Horford, Tatum, Brown, Hayward to make trading Kyrie worth it? Maybe Kawhi but who goes to the bench in that scenario?
I wouldn't even do Kyrie for Kawhi myself. I'm sure it differs for everyone but it's a short list and the players on that list probably aren't even really available. The Brow, for one.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It's going to sound like a diss to Kyrie Irving and it's not, but any trade involving Kyrie Irving will end up with the Celtics improving. They aren't going to trade him for a worse player.
 

TripleOT

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I wouldn't trade Rozier for the 13th pick this summer. I'd rather make a run for a title with him in 2019. I would move him for Orlando at 5, or Cleveland at 8. Orlando desperately needs a PG to step in a run their show. Rozier is a ready made 17/5/7 guy who doesn't turn the ball over. If Rozier has to be moved, package him and a pick and pick and try to get a promising young big like Carter or Bamba.

This is of course assuming the Celtics don't get lucky in the draft lottery. I have a feeling they will be lucking into the second pick of the draft.
 

NortheasternPJ

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Wouldn't Cleveland trading at 8 (or around where they end up in the lottery) be a disaster PR wise?

They'd end up giving the Celtics Kyrie for Rozier and some spare parts after all of it.
 

BigSoxFan

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Wouldn't Cleveland trading at 8 (or around where they end up in the lottery) be a disaster PR wise?

They'd end up giving the Celtics Kyrie for Rozier and some spare parts after all of it.
Cleveland would never do that deal. Rozier has been great but he gets expensive soon. No team is trading a top 10 pick for him. There really aren’t many teams who need a PG so I don’t see much of a market for him.

If it were me, I’d hold onto Rozier next year like the Pats did with Jimmy and reduce the wear and tear on Kyrie in the regular season.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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My original idea was Rozier/27 for 13, which I think is pretty fair. He’s young enough to be part of the Clippers’ rebuild but certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he weren’t interested. This is a team that currently has no long-term answer at PG. It’s possible that they would prefer a guy like Sexton but he’s light years away from being as good as Rozier is now so trading for Rozier would give them a better player and allow them to go in a different direction at #12. Should be interesting to see.
Rozier/27 for 13 is kind of fair, I guess, in a vacuum but while Rozier makes LAC better, he doesn't make LAC that much better next year and if West really wants him, it's not going to be difficult to make an offer in RFA that the Cs can't match.

Plus, the Cs aren't going to do anything with Rozier until they know what happens with Smart so it's much more likely that if DA does decide to move him, he'll get a protected future 1st round pick than a pick in this year's draft.

Unless CLE or ORL do something really really dumb.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Plus, the Cs aren't going to do anything with Rozier until they know what happens with Smart so it's much more likely that if DA does decide to move him, he'll get a protected future 1st round pick than a pick in this year's draft.
Yeah I think it's much more likely Terry gets moved after the draft and after free agency shakes out - teams will have a much better sense of their needs at that point. I could also see the Celtics doing what the Pats did with Garappolo and holding on to Terry to begin the season and then if everyone stays healthy, trade him at or near the deadline to a team that needs a scoring PG.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Looking at the teams who might be interested in Rozier, the Suns might have him on their radar, though they do have some cap issues. In addition to their top 4 pick, they have both #16 and #17. I don't know if there's a guy who'd be available there to make it worth it to lose Rozier on what should be a stacked team looking to compete for the championship, but we do know that Ainge is always looking to stack chips to give him the flexibility to land that real big fish. Orlando, as mentioned should certainly be looking for a guy like Rozier. Depending how the lottery shakes out, I'd definitely give a lot of thought to a Rozier + SacTown pick for the chance to draft Bamba or Jaren Jackson.
 

Devizier

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I think you hang on to Rozier. Trying to grab value before the guy hits the market is how you end up with deals like Harden for Martin. Not horrible in the short term but really quite disastrous long term. This season also shows how valuable it is to have insurance. Yes there are players who would rail against being relegated back to the bench, but I'm not sure Rozier is one of them. His role on the Celtics has made him an awful lot of future money.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think you hang on to Rozier. Trying to grab value before the guy hits the market is how you end up with deals like Harden for Martin. Not horrible in the short term but really quite disastrous long term. This season also shows how valuable it is to have insurance. Yes there are players who would rail against being relegated back to the bench, but I'm not sure Rozier is one of them. His role on the Celtics has made him an awful lot of future money.
And Kyrie has missed about 25% of games in his career. There will be plenty of opportunity for Rozier to start on a loaded offensive team. I think Ainge only trades Rozier if it’s part of a much bigger deal like for Kawhi.
 

BigSoxFan

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They also have Patrick Beverley and Milos Teodosic. I also do not see a fit here at all.
Beverley is a FA next summer and turns 30 in July. Teodosic is 31 and a FA next summer as well. Both guys profile as good backups. There is absolutely a fit for a starting caliber 24 year-old point guard who is on the upswing vs. the 2 guys you mentioned who are playing on the back 9.
 

djbayko

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I doubt Jerry West is going to trade the #13 pick for the privilege of paying Rozier lots of money in FA or even RFA if someone really wants him.

And I mean some GMs are smart but trading a higher lottery pick for Rozier would take a special kind of crazy IMO.



PHI is going to sign a max-ish player. Depending who they sign (**cough LBJ cough ***), the NBA could be PHI's to lose next year.
I don't really consider #13 as a high draft pick. You should be thrilled if your #13 pick turns into Terry Rozier (who happened to be a #16).

To put it another way, I don't love the idea of only getting the 13th pick back for Terry, but if we can package the pick along with another asset or two to trade up in the draft, that would be fantastic.
 
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nighthob

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I doubt Jerry West is going to trade the #13 pick for the privilege of paying Rozier lots of money in FA or even RFA if someone really wants him.

And I mean some GMs are smart but trading a higher lottery pick for Rozier would take a special kind of crazy IMO.
I don't think that trading a mid first round pick for Rozier is that outrageous. If he's finally putting it together he's an above average NBA starter, which you rarely get out of guys drafted in that range.
 

TripleOT

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Jrue Holiday was more established as a starter than TR when NO gave up the fifth pick for him, but Rozier as a starter has been very impressive, playing at the level Holiday did when on Philly. If Rozier gets the Cs into the EFC and ends up with 20/5/7 stats with a 4:1 assist to TO ratio over 20 playoff games, there's got to be at least one GM in the top 8 thinking that Rozier can be his PG the next half decade.
 

Red Averages

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Jrue Holiday was more established as a starter than TR when NO gave up the fifth pick for him, but Rozier as a starter has been very impressive, playing at the level Holiday did when on Philly. If Rozier gets the Cs into the EFC and ends up with 20/5/7 stats with a 4:1 assist to TO ratio over 20 playoff games, there's got to be at least one GM in the top 8 thinking that Rozier can be his PG the next half decade.
The trade was the 6th pick (Noel) plus a protected (1-3) pick in the 2014 draft, which ended up being the 10th pick in the draft (Elfrid Payton). At the time Holiday was coming off a 17 pt, 8 assist, 4 rebound average season with 37 min played. In the Bucks series Rozier averaged 17.6 pts, 6.7 assists, 4.3 rebounds in 36 min. That roughly matches his March/Feb numbers as well. So it is a pretty fair comparison in my mind.
 

OurF'ingCity

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The trade was the 6th pick (Noel) plus a protected (1-3) pick in the 2014 draft, which ended up being the 10th pick in the draft (Elfrid Payton). At the time Holiday was coming off a 17 pt, 8 assist, 4 rebound average season with 37 min played. In the Bucks series Rozier averaged 17.6 pts, 6.7 assists, 4.3 rebounds in 36 min. That roughly matches his March/Feb numbers as well. So it is a pretty fair comparison in my mind.
I think that trade was pretty bad, but I don't think you can exactly compare it to a potential Rozier trade really because Holliday still had 4 decently cheap years left on his contract at that point (he had just signed an extension for about $10m per year) and had just finished his age-22 season. Rozier only has a year left on his contract, will likely take considerably more to sign, and will have just finished his age-23 season.

That said, I don't think something like a top-5(ish) protected future pick would be out of the question and could give Danny another asset to play with, which he seems to prefer rather than simply trading for an already-determined pick of the coming year's draft.
 

chilidawg

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If I'm trading next year's cost controlled Rozier, a year where we've got a legit shot at a championship, I want a big asset, like a top 5 pick in this year's draft. I'd include other picks to make that happen, but I want a big payoff.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Keeping Rozier for a year and then letting him walk has legitimate value for the Celtics. If mid level first round pick is all he will fetch on the market, then no thanks.

All that said, it only takes one team. I’d explore a deal.
 

BigSoxFan

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Keeping Rozier for a year and then letting him walk has legitimate value for the Celtics. If mid level first round pick is all he will fetch on the market, then no thanks.

All that said, it only takes one team. I’d explore a deal.
I fall in this camp as well. We need to have a Kyrie insurance plan next year so I keep Rozier for that role unless an offer is too much to pass up.
 

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Could Rozier be moved at the deadline next season if Irving is clearly 100% and it is certain he will be around for several more years? Seems that type of calculation was made around here not too long ago.
 

BigSoxFan

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Could Rozier be moved at the deadline next season if Irving is clearly 100% and it is certain he will be around for several more years? Seems that type of calculation was made around here not too long ago.
Theoretically, yes, but at that point the return will be so low that I don't think it'll be worth it. I think you either trade him this summer for a nice asset or you ride it out until he hits RFA and let him be a key cog and Kyrie insurance on a team that should win 55-60 games.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Could Rozier be moved at the deadline next season if Irving is clearly 100% and it is certain he will be around for several more years? Seems that type of calculation was made around here not too long ago.
Certainly possible. But if he's playing a key role as 6th man on a title contender, though, no chance he's dealt at the deadline.
 

lovegtm

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Theoretically, yes, but at that point the return will be so low that I don't think it'll be worth it. I think you either trade him this summer for a nice asset or you ride it out until he hits RFA and let him be a key cog and Kyrie insurance on a team that should win 55-60 games.
If he looks like a good player, the return could be decent. RFA is a lot more appealing to trade for than UFA. A good example of that is Oladipo: he was the centerpiece of the Paul George trade, and was signed at 21M/year starting 2017-2018, which is about the worst case that a team would end up paying when Rozier hit the market.
 
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BigSoxFan

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If I had to make a guess at this point, I'd bet that the Celtics try to extend Rozie

If he looks like a good player, the return could be decent. RFA is a lot more appealing to trade for than UFA. A good example of that is Oladipo: he was the centerpiece of the Paul George trade, and was signed at 21M/year starting 2017-2018, which is about the worst case that a team would end up paying when Rozier hit the market.
What do you define as “decent”? While I agree that RFA is far more enticing than UFA, I don’t think their situations are really that analogous. For starters, George is a legit top 20 player and Rozier is nowhere near that level. Additionally, George is one of the top 2-way wings out there. Almost any team could use a guy like him. How many teams need a PG? Maybe a handful? And of those, how many have an available asset that makes it worth trading Rozier off the 2018-2019 squad? I just don’t see a huge trade market for Rozier. I think we could probably get a future pick for him with similar protections as the Memphis one.
 

mcpickl

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I'd definitely be looking to move Rozier this summer, I think his value will be at it's peak since he'd be going back to being a bench guy next season.

It's tough to get a high draft pick for anyone, since those terrible teams have been dreaming on the draft prospects while slogging through their seasons. They tend to fall in love with someone in the draft. Only possibility of a top ten pick moving I'd guess would be Cleveland if LeBron stays and he demands they trade the pick for immediate help and targets Ohio native Terry Rozier. Even in that case, Celtics would have to add to Rozier for them to even think about it.

I think the best opportunity to return value on Rozier is targeting talented guys who were drafted high recently whose current teams might be frustrated with their development, preferably a big. I'd be trolling the waters on Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss, Domantas Sabonis, maybe Willie Cauley Stein. Not sure if those teams have soured enough this quickly, but I'd look into those types of guys to see if Stevens can develop them into valuable pieces. (tho in Sabonis case I think it wouldn't be because Indiana would be unhappy but might prefer Rozier to start and let Collison go rather than keep Sabonis as a bench guy)
 

lovegtm

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What do you define as “decent”? While I agree that RFA is far more enticing than UFA, I don’t think their situations are really that analogous. For starters, George is a legit top 20 player and Rozier is nowhere near that level. Additionally, George is one of the top 2-way wings out there. Almost any team could use a guy like him. How many teams need a PG? Maybe a handful? And of those, how many have an available asset that makes it worth trading Rozier off the 2018-2019 squad? I just don’t see a huge trade market for Rozier. I think we could probably get a future pick for him with similar protections as the Memphis one.
Ah sorry, I think you misunderstood. I was comparing Rozier to Oladipo in this scenario, not George.
 

BigSoxFan

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Ah sorry, I think you misunderstood. I was comparing Rozier to Oladipo in this scenario, not George.
Whoops, gotcha. So, you’re basically saying that, like Oladipo, Rozier should have good value even though he’s 1 year away from being an RFA? Certainly hope so!
 

ALiveH

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Top-8 in this draft is loaded - as good as top-3 or top-5 in a typical draft. I would package him in a heartbeat with any non-Memphis, non-Fultz 1st. One of Bamba, Carter or Young would be available at #8. Bamba or Carter would be my preference for fit to get the tutelage under aging Horford, but even Young has superstar potential.

I understand order of operations, but no matter what happens with Smart we won't be able to afford Terry as a backup PG. Also, a competent backup PG is one of the easiest roster spots to fill on the cheap in today's NBA.
 

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Top-8 in this draft is loaded - as good as top-3 or top-5 in a typical draft. I would package him in a heartbeat with any non-Memphis, non-Fultz 1st. One of Bamba, Carter or Young would be available at #8. Bamba or Carter would be my preference for fit to get the tutelage under aging Horford, but even Young has superstar potential.
Frankly I might even include the Memphis pick, depending on exactly how the lottery shakes out and if they are trading into a spot where they know their guy will be available. The Memphis pick is a very good asset but is top-6 protected through 2020 so if they could get, say, pick 7 this year for one year or Rozier and the Memphis pick I think Danny would at least have to very seriously consider that. I wouldn't think he would do such a trade until draft day, of course, since so much is contingent on the player they would be getting.
 

finnVT

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Unfortunately, if I'm any other GM and Trae Young is sitting there, I'm not sure why I'd give that up for Rozier. While there's of course a chance Young is never be as good as Rozier, he also might be substantially better, and the draft is usually the time to indulge in visions of upside. Not to mention he's younger and has more years of (~cheap) control. Unless the other asset coming with Rozier is substantial (i.e., the SAC or MEM pick), I don't see it.

I think when you get outside the top 10 that starts becoming more likely. Using Rozier plus their own pick to get a pick in that 11-15 range seems feasible to me. Ironically enough, I'd actually think if Philly ends up with the 10-11 pick, that might be a good landing spot. Rozier could replace Reddick as a swing guard who could handle the ball, but wouldn't have to be their primary distributor with Simmons there.
 

NoXInNixon

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Consensus seems to be that it will take Scary Terry + one or more of our future lottery picks to move up into a lottery pick this year. So the trading team would their starting PG and still have the upside of a future pick.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think that trade was pretty bad, but I don't think you can exactly compare it to a potential Rozier trade really because Holliday still had 4 decently cheap years left on his contract at that point (he had just signed an extension for about $10m per year) and had just finished his age-22 season. Rozier only has a year left on his contract, will likely take considerably more to sign, and will have just finished his age-23 season.

That said, I don't think something like a top-5(ish) protected future pick would be out of the question and could give Danny another asset to play with, which he seems to prefer rather than simply trading for an already-determined pick of the coming year's draft.
There are two other reasons why the Holiday trade isn't an apt comparison. (1) I think one of the reasons NO gave up what was perceived at the time as a lot for Holiday is because Dell Demps wanted to field a competitive team to best ensure AD would re-sign. Plus Noel was basically redundant with AD so he didn't have a lot of value to NO. (2) I think the value of draft picks have changed since the Hinkie years. Plus, the trade involved two GMs on complete opposite sides of the poles - Hinkie, who hoarded picks, and Demps, who I believe has traded away all of his first round picks.

I think people are vastly overestimating what Rozier would fetch in a trade.

edit: speaking of the 2013 draft, this Pelican website said that Demps loved Giannis in that draft. I can only imagine what Giannis and AD would look like together on the same court.
 

TheRooster

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Yeah, I'd like to meet the guy who thinks Trae Young is likely to be a better NBA player than Rozier
 

JCizzle

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He's been brutal on the road in the playoffs. I'm hoping for at least one big game in Philly. I agree that he's almost certainly better right now than Young will ever be tough.
 

amarshal2

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How do people watch these games and think, "I want to trade Terry Rozier"? All year he's been shooting better from 3 than in the past but has been a similar guy from 2 - a real weakness. Lately, he's learned how to score off the dribble inside. His dribble penetration is improving...he's been able to finish around the rim. He passes reasonably well, he doesn't turn the ball over, he scores, he defends, he's athletic, he works hard, he's improving dramatically...Who knows where this trajectory is going.
 

BigSoxFan

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How do people watch these games and think, "I want to trade Terry Rozier"? All year he's been shooting better from 3 than in the past but has been a similar guy from 2 - a real weakness. Lately, he's learned how to score off the dribble inside. His dribble penetration is improving...he's been able to finish around the rim. He passes reasonably well, he doesn't turn the ball over, he scores, he defends, he's athletic, he works hard, he's improving dramatically...Who knows where this trajectory is going.
I don’t think there is a single person who wants to trade him but a decision is looming for financial reasons. I think there is a real argument to be made for keeping him through next summer but his value will also be at its highest this summer so Ainge may want to cash in. As great as Rozier has been, when Kyrie and Hayward return, his potential impact will be marginalized.
 

amarshal2

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I don’t think there is a single person who wants to trade him but a decision is looming for financial reasons. I think there is a real argument to be made for keeping him through next summer but his value will also be at its highest this summer so Ainge may want to cash in. As great as Rozier has been, when Kyrie and Hayward return, his potential impact will be marginalized.
I think this is a very questionable assertion.
 

Kliq

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As an early adopter and a big Rick and Marty fan; I am overjoyed to see Scary Terry going mainstream. I’ll never forget the first time I heard Mark Jones say it on an ESPN broadcast.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I think this is a very questionable assertion.
Obviously nobody here can say for sure. However the logic is pretty basic. When Irving and Hayward return next year, the opportunities for Rozier to show what he can do will diminish. At this very moment "Scary Terry" is trending on Twitter, Eric Bledsoe actually knows who the guy is and the NBA punditry is all over the guy. He is one of the stars of these NBA playoffs.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Obviously nobody here can say for sure. However the logic is pretty basic. When Irving and Hayward return next year, the opportunities for Rozier to show what he can do will diminish. At this very moment "Scary Terry" is trending on Twitter, Eric Bledsoe actually knows who the guy is and the NBA punditry is all over the guy. He is one of the stars of these NBA playoffs.
That's one part of it. The other is... how much do you offer for an impending RFA?
 

Eddie Jurak

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This is definitely a consideration.

The main advantages are that 1) Rozier is good, and 2) The Celtics get some Kyrie insurance.

This disadvantage is that with everyone healthy, Rozier's role becomes 6th man/combo guard. And the Celtics end up commiting to significant minutes with an undersized backcourt that is poor defensively - often in lineups with Horford at the 5. Granted, Kyrie/Rozier is all around better than IT/Bradley, but this still a big step back in that direction over the longer lineups that feature Brown in the backcourt.

I think if they go this route they end up being a team that struggles to get stops at key moments.
 

TripleOT

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Kyrie has a player option in the summer of 2019, when TR will be a RFA. It's probably not likely, but what if Kyrie opts out and signs elsewhere? Will this be a consideration this summer if there are offers for Rozier? Or will the Celtics have a commitment in hand from Irving that he isn't going anywhere, and will continue to be the franchise guy in Boston?