Tennis 2019: Plus ça change...

CFB_Rules

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Right, but this is all random, right? If Nadal was #2, he could have ended up with the same draw?
There's a big advantage to being number 3 versus number 2. Number 3 you are scheduled to play 2 of the big 3 (whoever is seeded 1 and 2) in some order.

If you are seeded 2 (or 1) there is a 50% chance the 3 seed is in the other half and you'd therefore only have to play 1 of the big 3 to win the title. Djokovic is in that position this year.
 

jon abbey

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There's a big advantage to being number 3 versus number 2. Number 3 you are scheduled to play 2 of the big 3 (whoever is seeded 1 and 2) in some order.

If you are seeded 2 (or 1) there is a 50% chance the 3 seed is in the other half and you'd therefore only have to play 1 of the big 3 to win the title. Djokovic is in that position this year.
Do they really assign 3 and 4 randomly? It seems like 1/4 and 2/3 are always on the same side, but maybe not.

And Djokovic is in that position because he is #1 and should be.
 

CFB_Rules

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Do they really assign 3 and 4 randomly? It seems like 1/4 and 2/3 are always on the same side, but maybe not.

And Djokovic is in that position because he is #1 and should be.
Yup. 3/4 are randomly assigned halves, 5-8 are randomly distributed through the quarters, and so on. This is for all majors. Look no further than last year as an example, where the 1 seed (Federer) was drawn against the 3 seed (Cilic). Of course, it matters more when the big 3 are actually seeded 1-3.

So theoretically your path as a 1 seed after the 2nd round could be against players seeded as high as 17, 9, 5, 3, and then 2. Obviously unlikely but possible.
 

InstaFace

MDLzera
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Serena was in trouble today, dropped the first set 6-2 before rallying in 3.

Nadal is tied w Kyrgios right now, dropped the 2nd. You're not gonna believe this but Kyrgios has gotten testy with the ump.
 

BigMike

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Don't think he can beat him but Hubert Hurcacz is giving Djoker All he can handle at 1 set a piece, and only one break in the match so far. Hurcacz is very impressive out there, and has even had a couple Becker like plays at the net. Of course now as we enter the 3rd set of a fantastic match, we won't get to see any more of it as ESPN has to run a feature on Coco Gauf before they show the match
 

jon abbey

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Gauff fell apart at 3-3 in the first set and lost 6-3, she will need to regroup quickly to pull this out.

Novak won the third set easily (6-1) and is up a break at 3-2 in the 4th.

Also Kevin Anderson (4) got stomped in straight sets, so the highest seed left in Novak's half is Medvedev at 11.
 

jon abbey

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Medvedev just blew a 4-1 lead in the 5th and lost 7-5 to Goffin, so now the highest other seed in Novak's half is Raonic at 15, although there are a bunch of other lower seeds there also (19, 21, 23, 26, 28).
 

jon abbey

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Gauff trying to fight back from 6-3, 5-2 down, she won two games in a row and has the second set back on serve at 4-5.
 

gingerbreadmann

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Gauff trying to fight back from 6-3, 5-2 down, she won two games in a row and has the second set back on serve at 4-5.
This is the first I've caught of her in the tournament. She's got some preternatural sense of how to zig when most players zag. That slice shot to save match point was thrilling, and now she's got the mojo back and is rolling.
 

InstaFace

MDLzera
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2nd set tiebreak for Gauff now. Just tuned in, per your recommendations.

edit: she's got fantastic spin control, good footwork, but her groundstroke speed just isn't up to the standards of the average top player. That said, she's 15. But when Venus made her US Open run as a 17-year-old, people were bugging out at the sheer power she had; same for Maddy Keys. Something to watch, because I haven't seen much that could generate down-the-line winners.
 
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gingerbreadmann

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The match has really slowed down, as the commentators have noted. Neither player, especially Hercog, is willing to attempt a winner on the backhand side, and as a result both players are hitting to that side pretty much exclusively. But it may work for Hercog, up 5-3 in the breaker.
 

jon abbey

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2nd set tiebreak for Gauff now. Just tuned in, per your recommendations.

edit: she's got fantastic spin control, good footwork, but her groundstroke speed just isn't up to the standards of the average top player. That said, she's 15. But when Venus made her US Open run as a 17-year-old, people were bugging out at the sheer power she had; same for Maddy Keys. Something to watch, because I haven't seen much that could generate down-the-line winners.
I think she's better known for her defense, but Hercog has been playing her very tactically, slicing and spinning everything she can, so I wouldn't judge much from these last few games.

Great comeback, though! Hercog was playing amazing before, very curious to see how this third set goes.
 

Catcher Block

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Gauff wins the tiebreaker, off to the third set.

I don't think I'd ever understood was 'nervous' tennis looked like until now. Very excited for Gauff, but neither of them seem willing to hit risk-reward shots.
 

jon abbey

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Gauff wins the tiebreaker, off to the third set.

I don't think I'd ever understood was 'nervous' tennis looked like until now. Very excited for Gauff, but neither of them seem willing to hit risk-reward shots.
I think there's a difference between nervous and tactical, Hercog is going at her weaknesses and Gauff is trying to respond. Hercog definitely had a few tight shots late in the second, but the slice rallies I really don't think are a sign of weakness for either.

She's up a break now, this would be a really impressive comeback.
 

jon abbey

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Ah, the skull logo is just an Italian brand but she has a skull tattoo also, so good fit.
 

jon abbey

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Two straight games for Hercog, winning 8 of 9 points, and we're back on serve at 4-3 Coco.
 

InstaFace

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Ah, the skull logo is just an Italian brand but she has a skull tattoo also, so good fit.
Either way, Ms. Hercog is fuckin' METAL.

I'm thinking Gauff's big weakness isn't so much arm strength as wrist strength. She's failed to get the racquet around on a bunch of shots where she wasn't out of position or on a full run, ones that tour veterans would land at a high percentage.
 

jon abbey

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I'm thinking Gauff's big weakness isn't so much arm strength as wrist strength. She's failed to get the racquet around on a bunch of shots where she wasn't out of position or on a full run, ones that tour veterans would land at a high percentage.
I'm going with match experience, she didn't know to switch sides at 3-3 in the tiebreaker.
 

jon abbey

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Big service game from Gauff to hold at love, 5-4 now. The viewing party they showed watching her match in Florida was awesome, more shots of that please.
 

InstaFace

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First serve was what won the second set. Hercog at like 45%, Gauff at 80%. Hercog has and continues to hit more winners. But Hercog's serve continues to look wobbly, and after watching just a set, I think *I* can read it based on foot position and toss angle.
 

jon abbey

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The last set and a half has been really intense, you rarely see this kind of tactical tennis anymore.
 

jon abbey

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Gauff breaks and wins 7-5! Not the highest level tennis you will ever see, but really really fun match.
 

ifmanis5

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These are more backspin shots on grass than I've seen in a while. This is more like French Open style tennis.

Fun celebration, though.
 

jon abbey

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Coco gets Halep next, I think this run ends there, but I'll be watching.
 

jon abbey

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Her ranking is up to 139 from 313 before the tournament, presumably she won't have to go through qualifying at the US Open but I don't know how it works exactly.
 

InstaFace

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Her ranking is up to 139 from 313 before the tournament, presumably she won't have to go through qualifying at the US Open but I don't know how it works exactly.
Top ranked 100 auto qualify. Host tennis association gets 8 WC exemptions, their favorite Americans. 8 qualifiers. Remainder in bid priority order, which is mostly ranking / protected ranking, and I think 4 ITF WCs.
 

jon abbey

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Top ranked 100 auto qualify. Host tennis association gets 8 WC exemptions, their favorite Americans. 8 qualifiers. Remainder in bid priority order, which is mostly ranking / protected ranking, and I think 4 ITF WCs.
Oh thanks, that's roughly what I thought. She should get one of those 8 exemptions, although another win here might get her in anyway.
 

cromulence

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She's such a big story that there's no way she doesn't get a WC if she's not ranked high enough to qualify on her own.
 

InstaFace

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Something tells me a bunch of them will be making a roadtrip to Queens next month.
 

jon abbey

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So with #4 Anderson and #10 Khachanov going out today, the only top 10 seeds left are the Big Three and #8 Kei Nishikori, in Fed's section.

Awesome schedule tomorrow, Barty/Dart, Nadal/Tsonga and Fed/Pouille on centre court and Serena and Sloane Stephens overlapping in the first two matches on No. 1. I didn't check yet, but hopefully ESPN is running two channels simultaneously as they do sometimes.
 

jon abbey

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Nope, just ESPN, too bad.

Serena through, Barty through easily, #4 Bertens out early today.
 

jon abbey

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Nadal crushing Tsonga, 6-2, 6-3, 3-1, so ESPN is showing the Stephens/Konta match, tied at a set apiece with the 3rd set about to start.
 

jon abbey

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Stephens was up a set and tied at 4-4 in the second and then Konta just took over, 6-4 in the 2nd and 6-1 in the 3rd. She gets Kvitova now, that should be a good one.