Temperature Gauge: Trading Down

What should the Patriots do with their first-round pick?


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    236

E5 Yaz

polka king
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Since the Draft Pick Watch thread seems to be rounding into a consensus to trade the pick, it might be useful to see where posters fall in terms of how best to do that. This could be a decision that sets the Patriots up for significantly improving the roster.
 

BigJimEd

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Still a wide range of where that pick might be. A lot depends on that and how the pre-draft process works out especially for the QBs.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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This is setting up as Patriots win on Saturday. Line movement towards the Pats for most of the week and the SoSH jinx in full gear.
 

RG33

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If the Patriots end up with a top 3 pick, I think they almost certainly should consider trading down for more assets — preferably in this draft. I think they need to stay top 10 (maybe top 15) to get a starting LT/RT potentially, but this team needs assets and a significant infusion of talent. Having a #1 CB and a franchise QB is better than a LOT of NFL teams right now — but obviously, the rest of the roster is way behind. I’m excited about this offseason more than any in a long, long time.
 

Dogman

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2 caveats for me: We don't know exactly where we will be drafting yet but I'm assuming we stay in the #2 slot for this thread. We don't know what will happen in FA and some of the needs will be addressed there (OL, DL, WR).

I went with Travis Hunter. A potential pairing with Gonzo goes a long way towards a shutdown secondary. Add in his potential for 5-10 offensive plays a game, and Hunter might be a perfect player for this team.
 

E5 Yaz

polka king
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Still a wide range of where that pick might be. A lot depends on that and how the pre-draft process works out especially for the QBs.
Still, trading out for the best package can happen regardless where their pick falls
 

Jinhocho

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I wouldn't even consider a receiver at this point. Trading back and get offensive and defensive tackle help, a linebacker, a corner and an edge would be my wish list.
 

BigJimEd

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Of course, but given their multiple needs it still might prove to be the best strategy.
maybe? Premature to say though without having any idea who might be available and what type of offers they might get. My vote is unlikely to be the same if they pick at 2 vs 8.

Top 10 plus multiple high round picks including a 2026 1st rounder for #2? Most likely.

#10 and a 5th rounder in 2026 to drop from 8? Depends on who's available but probably not.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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Stick and pick. I’m not crazy about the idea of spending a pick on Hunter but that seems more likely to work out than handing Wolf extra picks to waste
 

Cellar-Door

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Assuming we stay at 2 I would trade out to one of the QB needy teams (likely LV) take BPA there (likely Carter, Graham, OT1, McMillan or Johnson) then be prepared for to move up to the late 1st if there is a faller.

A later pick... Probably just go BPA, feels like a once you get past 10 or so the risk is a lot of higher this year, and a blue chip player is worth it more than 2 lesser guys this early-ish in a rebuild.
 

Dogman

Yukon Cornelius
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Stick and pick. I’m not crazy about the idea of spending a pick on Hunter but that seems more likely to work out than handing Wolf extra picks to waste
Is it possible to not infect every thread with this? We know where you stand on Wolf.

E5 was clearly making a joke in the poll with that choice capitalized but it also serves the purpose of keeping that stuff there. You could have ended with Hunter seemingly likely to work out without the throwaway nonsense.
 

sezwho

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Ended up with a hybrid of trade down and Eliot (probably?) sucks eggs.

Think there’s going to be value coming down a couple picks for a qb hungry team. That said, can’t leave the top 10 since I don’t trust Wolf to do anything (basically at all) but take a consensus top 10 player. Here’s hoping there’s a tackle in their Christmas stocking.

Also, sure Bacon!
 

Garshaparra

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2 caveats for me: We don't know exactly where we will be drafting yet but I'm assuming we stay in the #2 slot for this thread. We don't know what will happen in FA and some of the needs will be addressed there (OL, DL, WR).

I went with Travis Hunter. A potential pairing with Gonzo goes a long way towards a shutdown secondary. Add in his potential for 5-10 offensive plays a game, and Hunter might be a perfect player for this team.
Exactly my same thought process. I can see Gonzo/Hunter/MJones getting promoted like mad on the level of Legion of Boom. Obviously, we still need OT/WR1, but spending $30-35M each per year for 3 years on Higgins and Stanley covers that, along with drafting an OT project with their 2nd rounder, and then BPA (primarily on the front 7), and this team can turn around rapidly.

However...if LV comes along and offers #6 + sundry, and their #1 for next year to get Sanders or Ward at #2, I'd go OT1, best LB/DT available in the 2nd, and the same FAs. The secondary is lesser, but the secondary is not a weakness today.
 

tims4wins

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Jul 15, 2005
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Personally, I don't understand the logic in sticking at 2 and drafting Hunter. I would MUCH rather trade down into the 6-10 range, pick up an early 2nd rounder plus some 2026 capital, and take the Michigan corner.
 

Cellar-Door

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Personally, I don't understand the logic in sticking at 2 and drafting Hunter. I would MUCH rather trade down into the 6-10 range, pick up an early 2nd rounder plus some 2026 capital, and take the Michigan corner.
I also don't really see it. I get the idea that maybe he turns into Champ Bailey with a Percy Harvin package on offense.... that's valuable.... it also doesn't matter much if you stink in the trenches on both sides. I also tend to think that 2 lockdown corners (one of whom you;ll need to trade or let walk down the road because you can't pay #1 CB salary for two guys) is diminishing returns. Awesome to have, but a top passrusher is probably more valuable to an defense than a #2 CB (and good #2 and slot corners are a lot easier to find) and an OT is really valuable to your offense. A trade down probably gets you both (1 this year, 1 next year).
 

Traut

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2 caveats for me: We don't know exactly where we will be drafting yet but I'm assuming we stay in the #2 slot for this thread. We don't know what will happen in FA and some of the needs will be addressed there (OL, DL, WR).

I went with Travis Hunter. A potential pairing with Gonzo goes a long way towards a shutdown secondary. Add in his potential for 5-10 offensive plays a game, and Hunter might be a perfect player for this team.
I agree. If you have the pick, you go with Hunter unless someone makes you an offer that you can't refuse. He is a very talented player who when paired with Gonzalez would give defenses fits. Couple that with the ability to plug him in on offense and drafting him makes you much better.
 

lexrageorge

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Drafting Hunter seems like a good way to end up with a (hopefully) good CB and an average at best WR. The latter may be an upgrade for the receiver corps, but hardly enough to be a difference maker - a team full of Demario Douglas'es is not going to go very far. And there's a question how long such a player can stay healthy in the NFL playing both sides of the ball consistently.
 

NDame616

will bailey
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There are 2 positions that I think would be ridiculous to take: QB and CB. I think Hunter will be an OK at best WR, and I think he will see the dollars WRs get and want to go that side. Weird public GF drama. Need to question which side he REALLY wants to play, etc.

The Pats team is completely devoid of talent outside of Gonzo, Maye and to a lesser extent Henry. We need bodies. Trade back and get BPA that isn't a CB.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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They need BPA but they also need BPA for every pick they'll have. Part of me wants them to trade down to amass more picks as they badly need talent, but impact players at the top of the draft don't come around much so I'm leaning to staying at 2.
 

Toe Nash

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I would come at this from the viewpoint that this is a long rebuild, and Maye will be here for a long time. I think the idea that a team can turn around very quickly is true, but requires a better roster than what they are starting with, particularly on the lines and particularly if they have a star that can provide value over their contract even after their rookie deal. The Pats have Maye and Gonzalez, but CBs can fall off in production quickly it seems. Otherwise they need STARS who are going to be in the upper eschelon of players at their position. You can find those in the top of the first round or sometimes lower down in the first but a lot of the studies we've seen show that there isn't really a sweet spot to get them other than taking a lot of swings.

I am also not confident that the Patriots have a particular edge in the draft to the extent that any team does. You used to be able to argue that BB would probably find some guys in the lower rounds that fit what he wanted to do and he could coach up. No longer.

What I would do then is focus on lottery tickets. Either trade down this year for more tickets, or trade into the future, particularly for first rounders in the hope that they become high picks. You never know with future picks, a team could have a key injury or suck for other unforeseen reasons.

If we get #2, I'd probably take whatever deal got me the most combination of picks in the top 3 rounds regardless of the year they're in. I'd consider doing that even if we end up in the lower part of the top ten. Just get more good picks even if we're bad again next year (but not this bad) and build the team culture, toughness, etc around hopefully some gems you might find.
 

NortheasternPJ

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They need BPA but they also need BPA for every pick they'll have. Part of me wants them to trade down to amass more picks as they badly need talent, but impact players at the top of the draft don't come around much so I'm leaning to staying at 2.
My dream would to be able to trade down 3-4 slots, then get the assets to move back into the Top 15 for their second pick.
 

Mystic Merlin

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They need BPA but they also need BPA for every pick they'll have. Part of me wants them to trade down to amass more picks as they badly need talent, but impact players at the top of the draft don't come around much so I'm leaning to staying at 2.
I just don’t think there are any of those at the very top of the draft that you can’t get 10 picks later unless you believe in Hunter’s best case scenario.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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I just don’t think there are any of those at the very top of the draft that you can’t get 10 picks later unless you believe in Hunter’s best case scenario.
I don’t think you can get a Mason Graham, Hunter/Johnson or even McMillan level prospect at those spots at pick 12 or so

There’s very few guys with obvious high end impact player potential (we know that some impact players will unexpectedly come from later on)

Who are you expecting around pick 12 to be an impact player at DT, CB or WR? I guess I could see an argument for Burden or Revel but the former is a totally different style player than McMillan and the latter is hurt.
 

mikeford

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This team needs so much more than just 1 player that you almost have to trade down and accumulate assets.

But fuck if I trust Wolf to pick the right guys with more picks. Other than Maye, his first draft is looking pretty fucking atrocious.
 

bsan34

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If Hunter is truly a stud, I feel like you could do worse than having a stud QB and two studs at CB. Not optimal construction, but top end talent at important positions (QB, WR, OT, EDGE, CB) is top end talent. If they don't think he's a true stud though, then trade down and take BPA, and then just keep taking BPA.
 
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Dogman

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This team needs so much more than just 1 player that you almost have to trade down and accumulate assets.

But fuck if I trust Wolf to pick the right guys with more picks. Other than Maye, his first draft is looking pretty fucking atrocious.
Great. My post earlier should have been an indication that we are not going to turn every thread into Mayo/Wolf bashing. That stuff lives in about 25 different threads. Leave it there.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Kind of matters where they end up. Top 2 pick? Trade down for a QB hungry team that's in the top 10, draft BPA at a position of need.

End up between 3-10? Just draft BPA.
 

snowmanny

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IF they end up at 2 I’d probably take Graham unless they could get a top 8 pick and a 2026 #1.

If they are 6/7/8 I’d take BPA and wouldn’t think about a trade. Yes they have a lot of needs but they also need a few really good players.
 

BusRaker

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Assuming Ward - Sanders - Hunter top 3

At #2 - 100% Trade down
At #3 - If there is a team in love with Travis Hunter trade down (i.e. couple of first rounders and change), if not I'd take him.
At #4-8 - Probably BPA unless you get a great deal
 

PRabbit

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Preferably trade down but why bother if the trade offers are garbage? Take Hunter if that's the case.
 

ragnarok725

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Assuming Ward - Sanders - Hunter top 3

At #2 - 100% Trade down
At #3 - If there is a team in love with Travis Hunter trade down (i.e. couple of first rounders and change), if not I'd take him.
At #4-8 - Probably BPA unless you get a great deal
This sounds right to me.
 

SMU_Sox

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They have so many needs that I say just trade down for the best offer. The best offer will likely come from a top 10/15 team who needs a QB.
 

dirtynine

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I think I like Hunter if he’s there. Two-position guys have cool wiring. I think there’s something extra special there, even if he sticks at one in the NFL.
 

Jungleland

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If they have the 2nd pick, I expect the value from trading back a bit to be high enough that you essentially can't refuse. I'm fine with that, especially given that the single greatest need on the roster is OT and one of the top two available should be there in the back half of the top 10.

Outside of that scenario, I don't think the risk of a trade back is worth it. I essentially see these as the acceptable outcomes:
  • If the pick is top 3: take Hunter or Graham because you think they're the best player in the draft OR trade back and still get McMillan or a tackle
  • If the pick is top 5: take McMillan or trade back and still get a tackle
  • If the pick is later top 10: take a tackle
I'm expecting they win at least one of the last two and pick 7-10, in which case I don't expect there will be much wiggle room other than taking BPA who will at least potentially be at the greatest position of need (and the one least likely to be filled in FA).
 

RedOctober3829

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2 caveats for me: We don't know exactly where we will be drafting yet but I'm assuming we stay in the #2 slot for this thread. We don't know what will happen in FA and some of the needs will be addressed there (OL, DL, WR).

I went with Travis Hunter. A potential pairing with Gonzo goes a long way towards a shutdown secondary. Add in his potential for 5-10 offensive plays a game, and Hunter might be a perfect player for this team.
I feel this way, but only if they view Hunter as a WR. He’s got serious Garrett Wilson vibes for me as a receiver. He can go play corner on 3rd downs, red zone, and 4th quarter situations too but I want his primary role to be on offense.
 

Seels

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I'm wide open here. I don't have the perception that this is a great draft so picking at 10 v 4 or something isn't that big a deal. They can draft who they want at the top, or they can trade. I think I mildly prefer BPA but only slightly.

The thoughts about drafting a corner in this thread are revolting. This team needs a lot of help but man there's no point to having two good corners if the team can't rush the pass or protect the passer. I could get behind OL, or WR, or front seven. But secondary? Unless you're trading down to mid round and picking up another first, absolutely not.
 

Justthetippett

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If Hunter is a Sauce Gardner caliber player then he makes sense. I don't even care about the offensive side. With no clear OL or WR as a top 5 pick he makes the most talent difference, which is what they need. They need help all over the field, but they also need high-end talent. FA and trade market obviously also critical.
 

chilidawg

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This team needs so much more than just 1 player that you almost have to trade down and accumulate assets.

But fuck if I trust Wolf to pick the right guys with more picks. Other than Maye, his first draft is looking pretty fucking atrocious.
Wouldn't giving him more shots in the draft increase the odds he gets something right?

Also, hard to judge a guy based on 1 draft.
 

nattysez

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More swings = more chances for a homer. That said, I would not trade out of the top 6 or so. Make the Titans or Raiders pay you a king's ransom to get up to #2 for Ward.

Tenn knows that if the Pats and Jags keep their picks, Ward will fall to them at 4. So the Pats have to convince Tenn that the Pats are selling the pick to the highest bidder and Tenn will never get Ward if they don't pony up.
 

Dogman

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Wouldn't giving him more shots in the draft increase the odds he gets something right?

Also, hard to judge a guy based on 1 draft.
This has been covered. Want to start a thread about not judging Wolf on 15 weeks or how his 4th RT or 5th LT isn't working out or anything else? Go for it.

This is clearly a thread about what "we" would do based on strategy, not who is drafting or who you trust making the choices.
 
Apr 24, 2019
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I would trade down for either of the top two OTs (if their arms and whatever else confirm that they will indeed DEFINITELY play tackle) or for Luther Burden. I'd take Burden over McMillan. Speed, please, and a guy who gets open. And I REALLY don't want McMillan if they somehow wind up with Tee Higgins.
 

Reverend

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The thoughts about drafting a corner in this thread are revolting. This team needs a lot of help but man there's no point to having two good corners if the team can't rush the pass or protect the passer. I could get behind OL, or WR, or front seven. But secondary? Unless you're trading down to mid round and picking up another first, absolutely not.
Yeah, I’m wondering what’s changed? Or maybe the composition of who is posting has changed over the course of the season, but I felt like not so long ago, there was a consensus of near terror that that Pats wouldn’t be grabbing a highly touted OT (Read: Left) or WR this year.

Yes, this year is supposed to be lighter on talent, but it seems like something has changed.
 

jk333

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Yeah, I’m wondering what’s changed? Or maybe the composition of who is posting has changed over the course of the season, but I felt like not so long ago, there was a consensus of near terror that that Pats wouldn’t be grabbing a highly touted OT (Read: Left) or WR this year.

Yes, this year is supposed to be lighter on talent, but it seems like something has changed.
The available tackles all have ant least moderate flaws and the defensive players (Johnson, Hunter, Graham) have played as advertised.

I’m with you, trade down and address the positions that are dire needs (WR and Tackle, to some extent edge) but I understand wanting to take the defensive players that are the most likely to be multiyear pro bowlers. On one hand, it’s easy to overrate 2nd and 3rd round picks. On the other, this roster needs so much help it’s believable that a higher percentage of those players help this team; especially at critical positions.
 
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