I'm a bit surprised there's a debate around whether they'd take #8 for Kemba. If the NBA offers the amnesty clause I think Kemba is the most likely player for the Celtics to use it on.
I don’t think they have buyer’s remorse, I think they have a “Fuck fuckin’ covid!!!” problem.Man, I really don't think Boston has buyer's remorse after 1 season of Kemba.
So instead of 20/5/5 (which Hayward has never averaged in a season incidentally), his 17.5/6.7/4.1 line in 33.5 mpg is evidence of being “largely squandered?”Yes, he’s a guy that can produce, when healthy, 20/5/5 lines. Only here he won’t because he’s fourth in the pecking order.
I’m not saying that a trade of Hayward shouldn’t be considered, only that trading him for a #8 pick and a TPE shouldn’t.While it’s a nice luxury, they have, literally, one year of it before losing him and, literally, not replacing him because Jayson Tatum’s extension will kick in and they have to plan for Walker’s continuing decline. So, yes, a marginal reduction in their title chances for one year in order to create a longer window of contention is entirely rational.
I was just responding to this post.I don't think nighthob was all that thrilled with the MLE players available.
The problem is replacing Smart’s production as the sixth man, but that’s something that’s theoretically possible using the MLE.
This feels like a false dilemma. I somehow think that there are more options available than the two outlined here.Again, they actually have to replace Hayward’s production as he is literally in his last year here. They really don’t have a choice. It’s replace him now with whatever they can acquire in trade(s), or replace him with Romeo Langford in ‘22. Those are literally the options. As much as I like Romeo, more options are better than less.
How many home run swings at #8 yield home runs?That’s literally the best case scenario for them, avoid the luxury tax, get a shot at a home run swing, and when teams start trying to shed salary to reduce their own tax problems, you have the chance to add a player in a GFIN move.
I can't believe in the same sentence someone can argue that a 3 year max deal for Kemba is a bad contract yet yearn for an extension of Gordon HaywardHis 3/108 is a bad contract and if I can get a mid lotto pick to get rid of it, allowing me to extend Hayward and make other moves, I do it 10 times out of 10.
The cap is going down. And if they hold on to Hayward all year, they’re going to be facing a pretty stiff tax bill. Pre-2020 they were facing an approximately $16 million tax bill. But with a path to shed money and get under the tax line. Thanks to a year of biblical disasters that bill could be as high as $50 million with no cap smoothing agreement, but even with one that bill is going to be pretty substantial. So, yes, doing nothing means replacing Smart’s bench production with a player making $5.8 million rather than $9.8 million.This feels like a false dilemma. I somehow think that there are more options available than the two outlined here.
In fairness we’ve all qualified a Hayward extension as “team friendly”. Hayward at 3/70 is a better deal than Walker at 3/108.I can't believe in the same sentence someone can argue that a 3 year max deal for Kemba is a bad contract yet yearn for an extension of Gordon Hayward
Are you saying he would sign for 4/104 then? If not, I think he would surely bet on himself that he could do a lot better than 2/36 on the open market the following yearIn fairness we’ve all qualified a Hayward extension as “team friendly”. Hayward at 3/70 is a better deal than Walker at 3/108.
Uh, ok. Believe it. I would gladly take Hayward back for 3 years at a reduced salary. No, I would not want Hayward back at max levels.I can't believe in the same sentence someone can argue that a 3 year max deal for Kemba is a bad contract yet yearn for an extension of Gordon Hayward
I mean he is the player most likely to get moved to get the team under the ‘21 tax line. While I would prefer him over the next four years than Kemba, we’ve all admitted that there’s nigh on a 0% chance that Walker gets moved.Are you saying he would sign for 4/104 then? If not, I think he would surely bet on himself that he could do a lot better than 2/36 on the open market the following year
One thing I see two different views around is the benefit of "going for it" in 2020-2021. For some of us, a big part (not all) of the value of keeping Hayward is that it maximizes chance of success in the upcoming year as a contender. For others, while not disputing that, the emphasis is much more on years 2-3-4 from now. For me personally, knowing the overall "investment willingness" of ownership and by inclusion the cap/tax, is pretty essential to weighing that choice. As has been noted, there's some huge unknowns here: what the new CBA will do around taxes/cap; what ownership is willing to pay now (vs when Walker was signed). We simply don't know.The cap is going down. And if they hold on to Hayward all year, they’re going to be facing a pretty stiff tax bill. Pre-2020 they were facing an approximately $16 million tax bill. But with a path to shed money and get under the tax line. Thanks to a year of biblical disasters that bill could be as high as $50 million with no cap smoothing agreement, but even with one that bill is going to be pretty substantial. So, yes, doing nothing means replacing Smart’s bench production with a player making $5.8 million rather than $9.8 million.
Can't argue with much here other than we do know the direction of revenues. Last year, this year and next year they will be lower. Revenues will be impacted by the # of games, arena attendance, concessions, the next TV contract, etcAs has been noted, there's some huge unknowns here: what the new CBA will do around taxes/cap; what ownership is willing to pay now (vs when Walker was signed). We simply don't know.
The CBA is being renegotiated right now (at least, the deadline to opt out has been pushed back,presumed to be because they are negotiating). So everything is theoretically up for grabs. That said, most of us expect there to be only so much change---and a few are operating on the assumption there will be no change.I keep reading this and that about the tax...is the tax negotiable given the surprising salary cap situation?
They are negotiating the Cap/tax now. The tax is an incentive system to keep teams inline/competitive.I keep reading this and that about the tax...is the tax negotiable given the surprising salary cap situation?
The revenues have been wrecked by covid19 after the Chinese kerfuffle body blow that preceded it. The revenue sharing formula that exists in the NBA has certain spending requirements for small market teams to meet, tied to the tax/cap. It's why there's going to have to be a cap smoothing agreement to account for the revenue landscape. The smaller market teams can't afford to spend monies in the ways spelled out and still be profitable.I keep reading this and that about the tax...is the tax negotiable given the surprising salary cap situation?
The revenues have been wrecked by covid19 after the Chinese kerfuffle body blow that preceded it. The revenue sharing formula that exists in the NBA has certain spending requirements for small market teams to meet, tied to the tax/cap. It's why there's going to have to be a cap smoothing agreement to account for the revenue landscape. The smaller market teams can't afford to spend monies in the ways spelled out and still be profitable.
Per the BRI projections in the summer of '19, the '21 cap was supposed to be around $117 million. The China kerfuffle caused a warning to go out that BRI growth was going to be flattish and the cap wouldn't increase much past $109 million (I think the first revision was that the cap would be around $112 million).
Then came covid19 and the revenue implosion. Per current BRI projections the cap would be set at $25-$30 million below 2020's cap. So everyones economic planning is blown up. As the BRI formula would put most of the NBA over the luxury tax, everyone agrees that there's going to be cap smoothing. But casual fans keep assuming this means that the NBA will just keep things as they are. Which isn't going to happen as that will wreck the finances of the smaller market teams that will be forced to spend a whole lot more than they can afford at the moment in an environment where the only revenue sharing is likely to be the luxury tax checks.
So the cap/tax lines are going down, and it's going to hurt. The question is just how much they're going down. Things probably won't return to normal until '23 or so.
Here's a look at the NBA teams:Well, here's the problem, BRI is dictating that the 2021 salary cap be around $85 million, meaning that the luxury tax will come in around $100 million. Anything different than that needs to be negotiated. The secondary issue is leaguewide revenue sharing. The way that works is that teams pitch around 50% of their total revenues into a pot (less expenses) and every team receives 1/30th of the pot.
Now, in 2021 attendance revenues are going to be nuked thanks to covid19. Some jurisdictions aren't going to allow attendance at all and some are going to have caps on how full arenas can be. But there are still going to be expenses to keep those arenas running. This means that contributions to the revenue sharing pool by the California and New York teams are going to be drastically lower. But participating in revenue sharing requires spending based on cap/tax lines. So the smaller teams want those numbers to fall in order to limit losses prior to revenue sharing.
So the whole thing is really complicated. What we know is that the cap/tax lines have to move a lot closer to the real number based on BRI in order to preserve the health of the smaller market teams. But it can't actually move to the real number because that would put three quarters of the league into the tax. And some of those are smaller teams that need to avoid the tax in this revenue environment. My guess is that you see the numbers decline by about 35%-40% of the real number (say $10-$12 million reduction in the cap/tax lines). But that will bring considerable pain for Boston.
Is it? The cap and tax numbers listed for 20-21 are identical to what they have for last year so I thought they were estimating these numbers based off what we've heard so far about what they will likely do?...With the caveat that these numbers were the pre-disaster ones. Actual cap/tax lines are going to be lower.
Got it. I misunderstood what you meant when you said "pre-disaster". I thought you were talking about the $115m projection that existed post-Morey/China but pre-pandemic.Right, a year ago covid19 wasn’t a thing. They’re using the only ‘21 numbers they have, the projections from the CBA. Literally no one has any idea what the final number will be.
Building on this, if you think quality players will become available from teams that need to cut salary to get through the pandemic and its aftermath, then the correct play is to keep GH for now and shop him at the deadline, not to move him at a fire-sale price. Expiring contracts are hugely valuable in a market where teams are looking to clear salary. And if that doesn’t come to pass, you get the benefit of GH on the current team, and you can probably still shimmy under the tax threshold if you staple a couple late 1st rounders to Kanter and Poirier.The potential that a TPE “could” open up options of $8-15M players is not enticing enough to sacrifice the production that Hayward likely ”would” offer.
that's why some of us (or is it just me?) feel the TPE is worth more this year than in years past when the salary cap was going upBuilding on this, if you think quality players will become available from teams that need to cut salary to get through the pandemic and its aftermath, then the correct play is to keep GH for now and shop him at the deadline, not to move him at a fire-sale price. Expiring contracts are hugely valuable in a market where teams are looking to clear salary. And if that doesn’t come to pass, you get the benefit of GH on the current team, and you can probably still shimmy under the tax threshold if you staple a couple late 1st rounders to Kanter and Poirier.
Yeah, teams would prefer to send contracts out and take zero money back this year. Unless they're sending out $40+ million they're going to have zero interest in Hayward's contract. And Boston's luxury tax bill would wipe out the TV money. Like before adding in the actual payroll.that's why some of us (or is it just me?) feel the TPE is worth more this year than in years past when the salary cap was going up
Bobby Marks among others seems to think that it is going to either be the orginally projected 139/145 or stay flat a 132.7M, looks like nobody involved has any interest in dropping the tax as low at 116M.The problem is how much Boston is paying to hold on to Hayward for the difficulty that trading contracts (rather than absorbing them into open space) presents. Because once people's cap space is gone they're trading for guys like Andrew Wiggins.
But the real problem is this, the estimates, based on BRI, were that the cap could go as low as $80 million. Assuming that they smooth it to a $13-$14 million dollar drop you're looking at a cap around $96 million and a luxury tax line around $116 million. That would put Boston $26 million over. So the tax on Hayward's contract could run as high as $46 million. I like Gordon. He's not an $80 million player.
Besides helping the "coastal elites" wouldn't a flat cap help the players (& Players Union Chief) the most?I think it's closer to a third, a third, and a third. Which is why there's going to be a compromise and a lowering of the tax line is inevitable. Smaller market teams relied on those revenue sharing checks, which made them more pliable on the luxury tax front. But this year attendance revues are going to collapse (the owner's reversing course on the season start is the tell here, there's no covid19 fix on the horizon so now they just want to get the season over), which means that the revenue sharing checks won't be there. So for the smaller market/subtax teams, the only revenue sharing you're going to get is the luxury tax.
Now Portland is one of the small market teams that's going to go in the opposite direction thanks to the late Paul Allen's spending habits, and if the Larry Ellison rumors are true, might continue down that path.
But if you're a well run team like Utah, are you really going to agree to lose money to help out the west coast/northeastern teams? Because that's what's going to happen to the Utahs of the world, they're going to lose money on home games and will need the national broadcast and local broadcast revenues to make payroll. Without revenue sharing cash, they're going to need those luxury tax payments to tide them over in the '21 and '22 seasons.
Just so that we are on the same page, you are forecasting a 8 million drop from the 2019-2020 cap number? In order words around 101? Is there any sourced reporting that supports that conclusion?The fact that the cap/tax line might only reduce as much as $15 million mean that there will be some owners looking for that drop (because a $15 million drop won’t hit everyone). My guess is that we’ll see a cap/tax reduction of around $8 million or so as that will produce added revenues for the smaller market teams without being too onerous on the teams in the Midwest and South.
I haven't seen anyone reporting many teams who want the tax to go down. Marks mentioned that maybe the 4 teams with cap space might, but he hasn't heard of anyone actively looking for it, and the players obviously want it to go up.I think it's closer to a third, a third, and a third. Which is why there's going to be a compromise and a lowering of the tax line is inevitable. Smaller market teams relied on those revenue sharing checks, which made them more pliable on the luxury tax front. But this year attendance revues are going to collapse (the owner's reversing course on the season start is the tell here, there's no covid19 fix on the horizon so now they just want to get the season over), which means that the revenue sharing checks won't be there. So for the smaller market/subtax teams, the only revenue sharing you're going to get is the luxury tax.
Now Portland is one of the small market teams that's going to go in the opposite direction thanks to the late Paul Allen's spending habits, and if the Larry Ellison rumors are true, might continue down that path.
But if you're a well run team like Utah, are you really going to agree to lose money to help out the west coast/northeastern teams? Because that's what's going to happen to the Utahs of the world, they're going to lose money on home games and will need the national broadcast and local broadcast revenues to make payroll. Without revenue sharing cash, they're going to need those luxury tax payments to tide them over in the '21 and '22 seasons.
Reporters out west and in the northeast say that confidently. But keeping the cap flat only really helps the teams in those markets. In the real world revenues were off by a billion and a half and a lot of smaller market teams are going to have to host games with no/few fans for the foreseeable future. I'm betting that the Clevelands of the world aren't excited about losing a bunch of money to help out the Warriors and Nets.Just so that we are on the same page, you are forecasting a 8 million drop from the 2019-2020 cap number? In order words around 101? Is there any sourced reporting that supports that conclusion?
On the Lowe Post, Zach Lowe and Marks indicated that the cap would be at least 109. Marks specifically said teams had been assured that the cap would be no lower than 109. Their discussion of the tax line was either keeping it at flat or going to the previously projected cap line (meaning the delta between the cap and the tax would increase).
Do you really see any of the guys on the Jazz's free agency list that they'd really want back? To be brutally frank, I'm not even sure they'd want Gobert back given his salary demands.A couple of the teams you've listed are unlikely to be on that list... Utah is going to have difficulty getting under 120, and if they do the moves that most people expect they are going to be a tax team (until Conley comes off), Orlando is in the same situation. Milwaukee another smaller market, definitely NEED as high as possible to try and get better to keep GIannis, Indiana has a lot of money locked in, etc. That is part of the issue... so many teams spent last year on the assumption that the cap would keep going up, and so there aren't that many teams likely to be far enough below this year's tax line to be able to stay under a 15M drop. My guess is that it either stays where it is, or has a small drop of 2-3M.
Does it matter? Gobert isn't a free agent. Even if they let everyone walk they are at 121M for this season once Conley picks up his option, and that isn't even a full roster. So make it close to 130 in a best case scenario.Do you really see any of the guys on the Jazz's free agency list that they'd really want back? To be brutally frank, I'm not even sure they'd want Gobert back given his salary demands.
I hear your confidence, but as you've heard from several of us there is no reporting consistent with it, and all the plugged-in guys are saying the opposite.Reporters out west and in the northeast say that confidently. But keeping the cap flat only really helps the teams in those markets. In the real world revenues were off by a billion and a half and a lot of smaller market teams are going to have to host games with no/few fans for the foreseeable future. I'm betting that the Clevelands of the world aren't excited about losing a bunch of money to help out the Warriors and Nets.