i did make the coed intramural bball final in grad school so yeah i got qualifications too
Tatum or Ant?
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Your content and takes >>>>>> whomever this clown Timpf is and the unemployed NBA coach who rants on YouTube. That applies for just about everyone else here too. The age of gatekeepers is over - if players and coaches have valuable insight (e.g. Redick or many but not all of the players who have pods) let's share and discuss them. But playing semi-pro basketball or D1 doesn't qualify you to have a professional take. Having a good takes qualifies you for that and none of this content is good. Its no better than we get here yet people seem to think it bolsters their positions or whatever. If you need Timpf to make your case, you are losing...
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I'm as guilty of this as anyone, but I guess I always hope to find interesting voices who can analyze the game in ways that make me think. Out of the current crop, that's only really been Ben Taylor, JJ, and the Dunker's Spot guys.
Timpf is smart enough and has some decent breakdowns, so I think people were hoping for more from him beyond "this guy's jumpers went in for a few games! He's MJ!"
Timpf is smart enough and has some decent breakdowns, so I think people were hoping for more from him beyond "this guy's jumpers went in for a few games! He's MJ!"
I think that people are getting defensive about that statement because it's wrong, not because it involves Tatum.
No, his original statement was correct. This forum is just impossible sometimes. You all are really having a freak out that someone might think one really good player is better than another really good player? What are we doing? Posts about gatekeeping and how worthless someone's post is? That’s the level of discussion now?
Everyone has thought that Ant is a great player making a leap. They have disagreed on saying Tatum played like crap against Miami, or is way worse.
Any "gatekeeping" is either in your head, or pushback to overreaction to a couple great games from Ant.
If anything, the Ant stans have been worse, and acting persecuted because people don't immediately bow to Pointz (yes, POINTZ is back!)
You're not guilty of anything other than having an open mind to different basketball opinions.
Timpf & the Herd Minions are Laker/Bron apologists. It's not shocking they are in search of Celtic/Tatum flaws to talk about.
If it's annoying, one tap turns them off.
A much bigger migraine is the mainstream NBA Media where we're subjected to Hot Takes + FAN BOYism throughout a telecast. What is Doris going to do without Joel?
It's the assessment of Tatum's performance in Miami being subpar that is objectively wrong. Has nothing to do with Anthony Edwards.
People have been waiting to annoint Edwards as the next big thing since the end of his rookie season. Him taking a leap in the playoffs at 22 is going to lead to predictable talking points.
Objectively because you and a few others say so? I know some of you will start your POINTZ rant, but Tatum shot terrible from the floor for the series. Yes, he rebounded the hell out of the ball, and he played good defense, but this team will struggle to win a championship if Tatum is going to shoot 29% from three and 42% overall. That is a subpar shooting performance and like it or not, that bad shooting results in an overall subpar performance, IMO. He wasn't god awful, he wasn't bad, he was sub what I expect out of him in a series.
Except he went to the line 45 times. Had 27 assists to just 9 turnovers. Drew enough defensive attention to free up teammates and is mature and unselfish enough to let that happen.
I agree that his shooting was subpar. But that blemish doesn’t detract from what was a very good series from him, especially when we factor in his defense.
I felt Tatum's (relatively) poor shooting was partly (mostly?) a consequence of sometimes failing to make the right play. I'll give an example of what I mean:
https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media/2024/04/21/0042300101/261/a73248f5-edd3-c296-3257-b0e9c86908d9_1280x720.mp4
The issue with this play is you have White run along the baseline creating a potential 2 on 1 on the weakside, and you have that second defender up top in the gap. This is how Miami has more or less defended Tatum for 3+ years and he still isn't attacking this the correct way. Tatum needs to hard dribble left and engage the second defender, read the third defender (Jaquez in this case) on the weak side and make the pass to Porzingis or the skip pass in the corner to Brown. Otherwise he's allowing Miami to essentially guard two players with one.
Now, you can argue not being able to make that dribble and pass are what led to all those turnovers against Miami in the past, and that's what he's trying to avoid. I agree. But the solution isn't to get Drew Hanlen and go work on your 3 point step back/side step jump shot. The solution is to learn to be able to make that hard dribble to the left, read the third defender, and make the appropriate pass without turning the ball over.
Making the right play there might not show up in the box score at all. It's not really about points or even assists. In this particular example, It's about punishing the defense when it tries to cheat in this way by trying to defend two players with one player on the weak side.
And once he starts being able to make that play, then that second defender maybe doesn't get into the gap quickly enough because they have to honor the pass and Tatum can get to the rim.
Now, you can argue I'm holding Tatum to too high a standard. Most players (including maybe Anthony Edwards!) can't make this particular play. But that's the kind of play the primary shot creator on a championship team needs to be able to make with reasonable consistency.
https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media/2024/04/21/0042300101/261/a73248f5-edd3-c296-3257-b0e9c86908d9_1280x720.mp4
The issue with this play is you have White run along the baseline creating a potential 2 on 1 on the weakside, and you have that second defender up top in the gap. This is how Miami has more or less defended Tatum for 3+ years and he still isn't attacking this the correct way. Tatum needs to hard dribble left and engage the second defender, read the third defender (Jaquez in this case) on the weak side and make the pass to Porzingis or the skip pass in the corner to Brown. Otherwise he's allowing Miami to essentially guard two players with one.
Now, you can argue not being able to make that dribble and pass are what led to all those turnovers against Miami in the past, and that's what he's trying to avoid. I agree. But the solution isn't to get Drew Hanlen and go work on your 3 point step back/side step jump shot. The solution is to learn to be able to make that hard dribble to the left, read the third defender, and make the appropriate pass without turning the ball over.
Making the right play there might not show up in the box score at all. It's not really about points or even assists. In this particular example, It's about punishing the defense when it tries to cheat in this way by trying to defend two players with one player on the weak side.
And once he starts being able to make that play, then that second defender maybe doesn't get into the gap quickly enough because they have to honor the pass and Tatum can get to the rim.
Now, you can argue I'm holding Tatum to too high a standard. Most players (including maybe Anthony Edwards!) can't make this particular play. But that's the kind of play the primary shot creator on a championship team needs to be able to make with reasonable consistency.
Shooting from the field is an incredibly narrow area to say he was subpar....
He rebounded at a better rate than the regular season, assisted at a higher rate, turned it over at a lower rate, and drew FTs at a much higher rate, along with playing really good defense.
If Tatum does all of that but his TS% is 4 points lower than the regular season..... the Celtics probably win the title.
Did we really, though?Didn't we receive an 82-game and 1st-round playoff verdict on that one?
Milwaukee brought back the same team (Dame for Jrue). Giannis had a monster statistical season. Middleton came back better than anyone thought. Even at full strength, they weren't all that dangerous. They went from a 58-win team to 49
Giannis played 0 minutes of that first round playoff loss. He played 73 games this season (10 more than last season), which is evidence in your favor. The Griffin / Doc thing is a wrench in any clarity, of course. But we really have no idea how well Giannis / Dame really works when the chips are down, because they didn't play the series together. They get an Incomplete. They spent half a season figuring out how to play together, too, when Jrue and Middleton had years of prior experiences together with GA. So I find it hard to be really sure it can't work. Maybe it can! Or, maybe the supporting cast was insufficient. Or the coaching. Or Giannis was worn down the latter half of the season and less effective - his defensive rating took a tumble. We don't really have strong evidence either way, I think.
Agreed, and the 4% lower TS is a much better way to view his subpar (but far from bad) shooting efficiency against Miami. Regular season he shot 47.1%/37.6%/60.4% (FG%/3P%/TS%). In Round 1 he shot 41.3%/29.0%/56.3%. Looking at just the shooting from the field and ignoring his success drawing fouls creates a meaningful distortion.
Bigger picture, the offense was excellent when he was playing and not when he sat. That reinforces that his offense was just fine even though he wasn’t shooting well.
I really haven’t seen anyone say that Tatum had a subpar series. I haven’t really heard much about how he played in this series period. I thought he had a good series overall.
Ant has had a great start to the playoffs. Sports media is a “what have you done for me lately” industry, I’m not sure that it’s anything more than that
I will fight until the end of time that efficiency is overrated, within reason. Shooting is obviously a big part of the equation, but it’s also kind of a small part lol. He absolutely needs to shoot better than he did in the Heat series, but I’m not going to ding his play much because his efficiency got dragged down by a fluke 18% on catch and shoot threes, and shooting 33% in the 3-10 foot area, after being at 44% this season and 43% last postseason. He was 80% within 3 feet, good from midrange, and 37% on pull-up threes, a very sustainable number for him.
There’s a big difference between shooting subpar, and playing subpar. Obviously in the ideal scenario, he is able to be both efficient, and make the right play most of the time. But going out and making the right play a majority of time holds way more weight than if a guy makes or misses an extra shot or two of his own.
There’s a big difference between shooting subpar, and playing subpar. Obviously in the ideal scenario, he is able to be both efficient, and make the right play most of the time. But going out and making the right play a majority of time holds way more weight than if a guy makes or misses an extra shot or two of his own.
Really good post and truly, Tatum’s shooting being a bit off during the Miami whipping should concern upcoming opponents as the expected, return to the mean, makes the Celtics more formidable.
I think in the playoffs especially, when defense gets tight, role players don't rise to the occasion, and guys are playing 40+ minutes, efficiency can be overvalued. Paulo Banchero was horribly inefficient today on paper, but he obviously played extremely well.
I also don't see any consideration of the defenses these players were facing in the first round. Tatum faced the fifth best team defense by defensive rating while Ant faced the 13th best defense. Even without looking at the rankings, I strongly suspect most folks in this forum would describe Miami as a better defending team than the suns for obvious reasons. The Suns just don't have the personnel and Vogel isn't known as a defensive expert.
I personally have no problem with the view that Edwards is already better than Tatum - I don't necessarily agree with it though I expect Ant to be more impactful over the course of their respective careers - but if people are just looking at shooting in isolation, they aren't really trying. For me, at least, the answer isn't obvious so I don't know who is better at this point in time. I am surprised people have such firm views.
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What happened in the other 50% of game time that took place on the other end of the floor?
You expect more from him on the offensive end. I agree he shot poorly. The flipside is Derrick White was raining shit because Miami was committed to making Tatum shoot poorly. It's a team game, and Tatum is starting to get it.
And I say that as an Anthony Edward's Stan of the highest order. Dude is a lock to be a top 5 player in the NBA for years to come, but to ding Tatums series where they blew out their opponent 4 times, and lost a game in which the Heat got historically hot from 3 ain't it.
Not to go on a detour but the amazing thing about this year's Cs team is that no way are any of the teams from the few years absolutely curb-stomping MIA if JT shoots 29% from 3P and 42% from the field.
I'm not sure JT is going to shoot well against MIA in the playoffs given how much attention he gets from them. But this year it doesn't matter.
I'm not sure the ranter is a former NBA coach. If this is his YT channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCCpzBYi-KM7EzblUEh5IRcg - the Athletic says that he's Donald Hadesman, former assistant coach of the Windsor Express, a team in the Candian basketball league.
Hey @reggiecleveland - do you know this guy?
Why did Spoelstra glue Bam to him from game 4 on, to the point of Bam just sitting in the corner, if Tatum was playing badly on offense and no adjustment was needed?
It definitely didn't make it easier to defend the other Celtics out on the court, so there was no reason for the adjustment if Spo agreed with you that Tatum was having a subpar series offensively.
Maybe, just maybe, there is more to offense than FG%, and the smartest coach in the league agrees with that?
Tatum could have been better, but he jolted Miami out of gameplans that have worked for them against him for multiple years now.
This was all I was saying. Maybe subpar was a little too harsh, but subpar is a pretty benign insult to begin with so
The league coached in, the CEBL, is a league that split from the CBL. I don't know this guy, but the odds are there is overlap in the players we coached. I will ask some of the guys who are out west at the moment.
This is a great, well thought out post. But I thought in general that what Tatum did best against Miami was indeed making the right play. Consensus among the writers I pay attention to was the same.
And he does need to shoot better if the C's are going to win a championship.
This has come up in the den v Minn thread and I think others here did a fine job of articulating what I was saying but yes Ant is amazing at 22. His ceiling is legit high and that mostly means if he can figure out how to play like Tatum did v Miami watch out. It’s an obvious step for him which he probably doesn’t posses right now and there’s a real chance he may not ever get to tatums level in being an optimal decision maker and passer and setting up his teammates to be great.
So is Ant at 22 better than Tatum was at 22? Yeah. Do I care? No. Because I know that what Tatum has shown at 24, 25, 26 is plenty good enough to win it all and I can’t say that Ant has the maturity to get to that point yet.
I think outside of Boston if you ask which player you would choose to build a team with 80% would say Ant. I love Tatum as much as the next guy here but Ant is 22 and tonight all over Twitter the debate is whether he is better than Jordan at the same age…not Jayson Tatum.
I mean I can’t disagree as I’ve implied elsewhere. Just based on skill and alpha mentality at 22 Ant leads. But we live in a world where Tatum is 26 and has figured out how to play in various ways to get his team over certain humps. Does Ant get there? It’s not a forgone conclusion that he does. If they were both 22 as in Tatum is who he was at 22 I pick Ant based on skill and athleticism. But there’s more to the game than that so we will see if Ant gets there. I think Tatum is becoming an underrated player both cerebrally and for those times he needs to go alpha.
I think for example over the past three postseasons Tatum leads the NBA in clutch efficiency FG
Remember how great Lauri Markkanen was on Twitter? "What's Kyle Kuzma's ceiling?" on Twitter. Twitter is full of shitheads.
I'm still taking Tatum every day. That 4-5 inches of length that Tatum has is massive, on both ends.
Tatum has played incredibly well in his career against Ant (I believe 6-1 overall, and averaging nearly 35ppg). I really hope we get to see both teams in the Finals. That would be epic.
Arbitrary cutoff or not, this is insane.
View: https://twitter.com/bostonsportsinf/status/1787867529689378844
View: https://twitter.com/bostonsportsinf/status/1787867529689378844
Yep. They play different positions so direct comparison is difficult however Tatum's length and ability to credibly guard 1-5 on switches is a significant point in his favor and translates to better ability to contest shots and rebound. Edwards wins on athleticism. I'm not sure what that corresponds to in terms of counting or advanced stats but he does generate more jaw dropping highlight plays which plays well to many fans.
Right now I think Tatum is the better player. Edwards may be better in the future but if the question is which is the better #1 to lead a team to a championship this season the view from my green tinted glasses is Tatum is the better man.
Celtics-Wolves is the Finals match up I am hoping to see as well. If that is indeed the way it plays out whichever team comes out on top is probably a deciding factor in who the better player is as well.
I think these are both terrible comparisons. Nobody was calling either of those guys anywhere near top 5 guys in the NBA.
Terrible comps for Ant? Absolutely. You trimmed the last part though: "Twitter is full of shitheads. " It's proof of that. Twitter comparing Ant to Michael Jordan is also proof.
If we base on our discussions on "well lots of people on Twitter are saying", then we'll have a new "next GOAT" every six months.
Folks were pushing Lauri as an MVP candidate twice, once in Chicago (well maybe not as MVP but future MVP). And Lakerz twitter was pushing Kuzma as one of the best players in that draft, better than Tatum. Looking now, he doesn't sniff the top-10 of that draft.
We're at peak Wolves hype right now, and it's unlikely to subside immediately with Murray clearly hurt.
My guess is things will get more balanced when they play Dallas or OKC, and some of their old grindy offensive issues re-appear.
They're still really good, but there's a bit of stock market euphoria going on here.
My guess is things will get more balanced when they play Dallas or OKC, and some of their old grindy offensive issues re-appear.
They're still really good, but there's a bit of stock market euphoria going on here.
I think we all sometimes forget that Tatum was a historically great 19-22 year old too. He’s continued to improve at a solid clip, but not at the rate of tracking to be a top 10 all time player. Ant is off to a similar career start. He also still has the possibility of hitting that extreme upside chance that has largely passed for Tatum. But he also has the risk of plateauing early. I know DARKO isn’t a be-all, end-all metric, and I can’t pull a Jordan graph to compare him, but here’s T-Mac alongside Tatum and Ant. T-Mac similarly had an incredible early career and was a great player, but he didn’t really get better after somewhere around age 22/23. Tatum at 26 is a meaningfully better player than age 26 T-Mac. I don’t think you’d be wrong to bet on Ant to build a team around starting today v. Tatum, but you’re betting on upside v. certainty. I’d be willing to bet an awful lot on Ant not being the next Jordan but I think it’s not far off a coin flip whether he or Tatum have the better NBA career when we’re looking back and asking that question in another 15-20 years.
Through that lens, sure. But Jordan as a year 4 player had four straight all star, ROY, an MVP and an MVP runner up, had led the league in scoring twice, led the league in steals and carried a dreadful team to 50 wins. Sure, if you think that Ant is going to win 5 MVPs and six titles for some reason, that's fine. Or if you want to imply that the two-year age difference gives him ceiling for that, that's also fine. I don't agree, but I get it.
I don’t know how comparing a Top 10-15 player in the league at 22 has anything to do with those silly Twitter debates about Kyle Kuzma.
I was referring to legit sharp Twitter accounts not random shitheads. We all know Tatum has been the better player during Ant's 19, 20 and 21 seasons and his team has beaten Ant's team over these years which is what one would expect since Minny is only making the big leap this season.....I was saying long term the large majority of people outside of Boston would take Ant. It's close as to who I'd take, probably the upside of Ant with gun to my head but wouldn't go out on the ledge with that opinion. Nobody can really argue with a straight face that Tatum was the better player at the same age and with Ant's athleticism his upside is higher even if Tatum projects to be Top 3-5 over the next half dozen years.
Yes, Jordan's 22 is ahead of Ant's....but I wouldn't say by very much.
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We can just pin this to the top and close down the thread. @JakeRae is saying exactly the same thing too.
Isn't this actually kind of simple?
2024 only: you take Tatum
2024 through somewhere in the 2028-2029 range: you probably take Tatum
Entire remainder of career: you probably take Ant
2024 only: you take Tatum
2024 through somewhere in the 2028-2029 range: you probably take Tatum
Entire remainder of career: you probably take Ant
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Nobody is arguing against Ant's upside. No beef with people who think that Ant ends up better than Tatum. I think that it's unlikely but an understandable take.
I mean, it's not a hill I'm going to die on, but here's what they both averaged at age 22:
Ant: 25.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, .575 TS%
Tatum: 26.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists, .578 TS%
Tatum didn't make all-NBA that year (which was some real BS related to the Celtics getting injured and old), but he made 3rd team at age 21, which Ant did not. Both had 2 AS appearances.
At this point I don't think anyone can dispute that Ant has the higher ceiling. At the same time, I think anyone saying that Ant is better now (or even at the same age) is being swayed heavily by the last two weeks. Maybe it's real and he's leveled up significantly, maybe it's a hot streak and he isn't actually going to average 30+ points on 50% shooting and 40% from 3 going forward.
This is a weird debate for a variety of reasons - mainly because there is no way to even settle it at present - but also because these two players are completely different and at different junctures of their respective careers.
To me the debates are Tatum vs SGA or Ant vs Wemby. If I want to win right now I am taking either of the mid 20s guys over the kids (knowing full well that the delta between Ant and Tatum or SGA is likely small). But if I am building for the next 10 years, I have to think about it. Wemby is probably the choice but Ant will likely make me regret it over time.
To me the debates are Tatum vs SGA or Ant vs Wemby. If I want to win right now I am taking either of the mid 20s guys over the kids (knowing full well that the delta between Ant and Tatum or SGA is likely small). But if I am building for the next 10 years, I have to think about it. Wemby is probably the choice but Ant will likely make me regret it over time.
I'm only half paying attention to this, so maybe the point has already been made, but when I watch him play I don't think of Jordan.
The guy whose game Ant feels closer to is Dwayne Wade. Both about the same size. Both started as slashers and then started adding things to their game. Both capable of being really physical and disruptive on defense. I'm not suggesting whether Ant is going to be better, or worse, or the same as Wade. Just comparing the way they play(ed) the game.
The other comp that's popped into my head is a smaller Clyde Drexler, but I'm not sure that works as well. Ant is less fluid but more explosive. And it's been a while so I'm not sure I'm remembering Clyde right.
Anyway, carry on
The guy whose game Ant feels closer to is Dwayne Wade. Both about the same size. Both started as slashers and then started adding things to their game. Both capable of being really physical and disruptive on defense. I'm not suggesting whether Ant is going to be better, or worse, or the same as Wade. Just comparing the way they play(ed) the game.
The other comp that's popped into my head is a smaller Clyde Drexler, but I'm not sure that works as well. Ant is less fluid but more explosive. And it's been a while so I'm not sure I'm remembering Clyde right.
Anyway, carry on