A player scored 50 or more 14 times this year. 10 different players. 25 different players had a triple double.
Tatum got the bag(5 years, $195 million)
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
I think you guys misunderstood the point because of the typos. He was saying it's both easier to score 50 points in a game today, and also easier to get a triple double today, than it was in the Bird era.
Question for the statisticians on the board - what is the right metric to evaluate how easy it is to score 50 or get a triple double in the NBA in a given year.
The raw frequencies seem to be very individual-player dependent. Like, a huge fraction, maybe 20%-30% of the triple doubles that have occured in the NBA in the past 5 years are by one guy - Russell Westbrook. It was similar with Magic Johnson back when he played. The vast majority of NBA players have no shot at ever getting a triple double and some guys who do have a shot never manage it (Hi, Al Horford!). But more of them do occur very recently than there were in Bird's era, though there were fewer in the mid 1990s.
Team points per game during Larry Bird's heyday (ie, 1979-80 through 1988-89) varied between 108.1 and 110.8, which is not that different than the 111.2 to 112.1 that we have seen in the past 3 seasons. But from 1989-90 to 2017-18, points per game were more often less than 100 than more. The lowest number of team points per game in Larry Bird's career was 105.3 in his final season. Since Bird's retirement, team PPG was less than that every single year until the past five seasons.
Nowadays, we are in the "load management era" where players don't rack up the games and minutes played totals that they did in Bird's era.
What accounts for it being eaiser to score 50 or get a triple double today if that is the case? Less balanced scoring/production overall than in the past, with more minutes going to defensive specialists who don't produce stats and more stat accumulation by the stars?
I would imagine metrics and the related use of the three-point shot. In baseball, Crash Davis once lamented, “Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls – it's more democratic.” But the numbers have led hitters to adjust their launch angle to pursue home runs, and pitchers to adjust their repertoires to avoid contact, and the result is the rise of the strikeout in modern baseball. Similarly, Norman Dale once preached, “Five players on the floor functioning as one single unit: team, team, team - no one more important that the other.” However, the numbers have led coaches to try to maximize the efficiency of every scoring opportunity, and players to practice those specific types of usage, and the result is the style of play we see today where previously rare statistical occurrences are more common.
For scoring 50 points more frequently , probably the three point shot is the reason. Bird’s last Celtics team made 1.3 threes per game the entire 1992 season. The 2021 Celtics made 13.6 threes per game. Teams shoot a slightly better percentage from 2 in today’s game (.53 to .47%). Teams made four more FTs per game back then, but the player shoots a ton of FTs in many of today’s 50 point games, in a heavy iso style of play. For example, in Bird’s 50 point games, he made around twice the 5 FTs per game he usually, In Tatum’s, it was four times or more.
I’m not sure triple doubles are easier per se. I think it’s become an overrated stat and players now consciously try for them, and so they get accumulated more often. But even at that Westbrook is probably responsible for a quarter of them over the recent timeline.
Scoring 50 points definitely isn’t easier, it’s just that the best players are better shooters now than guys were in ages past. So alpha scorers now regularly shoot treys like Ray Allen. And crushing a bunch of treys is the quickest way to reach 50. Factor in that analytics have created an emphasis on scoring in the paint or behind the arc and you see guys like Tatum with those 15+ FTA games that help the cause.
How do we know players hunt triple doubles A LOT more?
Elfrid Payton has 17. Tied with Scottie Pippen.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/trp_dbl_career.html
Elfrid Payton has 17. Tied with Scottie Pippen.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/trp_dbl_career.html
Can’t wait to see what this dude looks like next season.
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vQoixouPMow
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w5wWAalWn2c
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vQoixouPMow
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w5wWAalWn2c
Disappointing. I get why he wants to do it, but after this season I'd prefer he spend the offseason in bubble wrap.
I always feel that way about exhibition games (PG/injuries), but the Olympics is a hair different. Being one of the best players on a Gold Medal winning team could launch JT's confidence even further.
Senator Donut makes a good point, start recruiting. Plus seeing Tatum with other top players gives us an idea who would play well next to him (especially a + distributor/PG)
JT is all business, prepared and works hard/smart in the offseason (with Hanlen). Shouldn't be a huge concern
View: https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1404955662723993603
Tatum has to settle for the smaller bag.
Tatum has to settle for the smaller bag.
Wyc's wallet is gonna be happy
Edit- Tatum, Mitchell, Bam and Fox all missed out on extra money
Edit- Tatum, Mitchell, Bam and Fox all missed out on extra money
LOL:
View: https://twitter.com/AdamHimmelsbach/status/1404956683839983627
If you are eligible at 2 positions they only compare you to other guys at the position you got more votes in? All-NBA is so dumb, can't believe guys gain or lose 10s of millions off this silliness
View: https://twitter.com/AdamHimmelsbach/status/1404956683839983627
If you are eligible at 2 positions they only compare you to other guys at the position you got more votes in? All-NBA is so dumb, can't believe guys gain or lose 10s of millions off this silliness
View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1404959139495874560
Sources: Among the invitations USA Basketball has made for inclusion on the 12-man Olympic roster, there’s optimism that Coach Gregg Popovich will get commitments from Bradley Beal and Jayson Tatum.
Sources: Among the invitations USA Basketball has made for inclusion on the 12-man Olympic roster, there’s optimism that Coach Gregg Popovich will get commitments from Bradley Beal and Jayson Tatum.
I will say... why is Tatum guard eligible? He's played like 30 minutes at guard in the past 2 seasons.
What do you mean? I don't think there's any vote splitting going on. All of Tatum's guard and forward votes counted. He just had too many forwards ahead of him. A player being eligible in 2 categories can only help them.
Edit: At least I think that's how it works.
I think the point was... why make guys eligible for votes at 2 positions, but then not compare total votes vs both positions.
So if Tatum gets say 99 votes, 50 at F, 49 at G, and Kyrie gets 55 votes all at guard Kyrie makes the team over a player who far more voters thought was worthy of making it
I know that's what YOU were saying. Would you ever call that "vote splitting"? I assumed EY mistakenly believed that Tatum lost his guard votes when he was eventually slotted as a forward, but I could be wrong.
Eh, it doesn't really matter. He should have been eligible at just forward, and he wouldn't have made it with 99 anyway.
And if he were only listed as forward he probably would have gotten a good bit fewer votes- I bet most of his votes he got at G were voters wanting to slip him in but couldn't fit him in as F- and the dual eligibility only helped him.
And if he were only listed as forward he probably would have gotten a good bit fewer votes- I bet most of his votes he got at G were voters wanting to slip him in but couldn't fit him in as F- and the dual eligibility only helped him.
Conversely what if Tatum got 97 at F and 2 at G, but beat out Kyrie with 98 all at G? The dual eligibility helps guys like Tatum by allowing them to accrue votes at multiple positions.
Eh, he didn't make it because a few forwards in front of him (Lebron, George, Butler) made the team despite missing huge chunks of the year. Maybe if Tatum had sat out another dozen games when he got covid and came back 100%, his overall stats would've been good enough.
Sure, that's why the format is ridiculous. If a guy is eligible at 2 positions make him eligible at 2 positions, if not just put him at 1.
Though I'm not sure that's true about his votes. I would guess there were at least some people who thought... I can't leave off Tatum or LeBron (or Tatum and PG, or Tatum and Butler), but I can leave off Kyrie (in fact for Tatum to have more votes than Kyrie it means at least some voters wanted 2 Fs over Kyrie). If you make them choose Tatum or LeBron or Tatum vs. PG (or Butler) maybe they choose Tatum. Having multiposition eligibility may help you on some ballots, on others it may just hurt a guard and help another forward.
To me it seems dumb to put a guy in two player pools for voting, but only 1 player pool for vote counting. That was the point of the 99 votes thing... why would a 1 vote difference for example make you put a guy in one group over the other, it's just silly.
Why? Because Wyc would have cheaped out on the tax? We're not signing a $5M player with cap room probably as long as Tatum is here.
that would be the most American thing ever, Don Luka playing for Team USA in the Olympics.
He pays enough in taxes might as well make him a citizen along with Giannis.
I'd guess Beal is the only hope for recruitment...Hire Hanlen as an advisor/consultant/whatever, get him on the payroll. Kind of like what Missouri did with MPJ's dad.
There's always a limit for every non-Lacob owner, and even without that, an extra $5M helps with lots of things. The apron if they want to S&T, clearing max room if they hear someone is available, being marginally more willing to acquire X marginal player...tons of uses.
Good article in the Athletic this morning:
https://theathletic.com/2653998/2021/06/16/maximizing-jayson-tatum-and-jaylen-brown-marcus-smart-at-pg-yam-madars-future-and-more-celtics-mailbag/?source=dailyemail
Tatum/Hanlen in the lab, formulating, still in learning mode. As a reminder, this was a HUGE weakness, 18mths ago. This guy will be a top 3 NBA player by the 2023 playoffs, book it
Over his last 27 outings, including the playoffs, Tatum averaged 7.3 free throw attempts per game. If he can sustain that over a full season, he would rank near the top-10 in that category. Tatum also shot a career-best 50.2 percent from inside the arc, including 68.3 percent from inside of four feet, according to Cleaning the Glass. The latter mark put Tatum in the 78th percentile among players at his position, far better than the 30th percentile where he finished the previous season.
https://theathletic.com/2653998/2021/06/16/maximizing-jayson-tatum-and-jaylen-brown-marcus-smart-at-pg-yam-madars-future-and-more-celtics-mailbag/?source=dailyemail
Tatum/Hanlen in the lab, formulating, still in learning mode. As a reminder, this was a HUGE weakness, 18mths ago. This guy will be a top 3 NBA player by the 2023 playoffs, book it
Over his last 27 outings, including the playoffs, Tatum averaged 7.3 free throw attempts per game. If he can sustain that over a full season, he would rank near the top-10 in that category. Tatum also shot a career-best 50.2 percent from inside the arc, including 68.3 percent from inside of four feet, according to Cleaning the Glass. The latter mark put Tatum in the 78th percentile among players at his position, far better than the 30th percentile where he finished the previous season.
$5 million is like $20 million counting in the tax, assuming we hit the repeater or go significantly over.
Thanks to this year's reset Boston won't hit the repeater tax until the end of Tatum's deal. And they have a reset year for the first year of his new deal to basically sidestep it again. The challenge will be fitting in Brown and Tatum's deals while still having the necessary horses around them.
It was only one play and Tatum missed the shot, but it was nice to see Tatum try the old classic Pierce move of upfaking, getting fouled, and getting his midrange shot off after the foul. That's one way to be more efficient in the midrange game and a good tool for Tatum to add to his arsenal.
that's why Wyc/Steve need to buy Pure Sweat and retain Hanlen on a 10yr non-compete.
Jeez Joe Lacob burned $82MM for 1 season of t$unami Papi
For a fraction of that, he could have the Pied Piper of NBA All-Stars that want to bust their ass in the offseason and improve.
Kelly Oubre is also a Hanlen client. Maybe there could be a package deal.that's why Wyc/Steve need to buy Pure Sweat and retain Hanlen on a 10yr non-compete.
Jeez Joe Lacob burned $82MM for 1 season of t$unami Papi
Why would Hanlen want to work for a team?
Hanlen is in the best possible spot now, he picks and chooses his clients, he makes plenty of money, he is connected all over the league. It's like asking if Rich Paul would like to come be the President of Basketball Administration
Hanlen is in the best possible spot now, he picks and chooses his clients, he makes plenty of money, he is connected all over the league. It's like asking if Rich Paul would like to come be the President of Basketball Administration
The flip side is that guys who know everyone tend to be better at recruiting elite players.
more money, more freedom...
Mostly because I want the Celtics to get Brad Beal for a song, keep Tatum happy/here for the next decade, and have him work with the rest of the Celtics roster...it's a pipe dream
Agents becoming Presidents/GMs for NBA teams isn't unprecedented (Knicks, Lakers, Jazz, Pistons, Warriors). Obviously, Rich Paul is in a different situation, then most successful agents, with Klutch/Bron (UTA, Producing movies/TV shows, investments, etc). Hanlen isn't in that league yet.
Hanlen has done a good job with Semi in regard to getting him to catch and shoot the three quickly, with Semi improving to 37% from three his last two seasons. I give Drew credit for working with low talent, hard working journeymen like Semi.
the first rule of Port Cellar is: you do not talk positively about Semi in Port Cellar