Too bad this guy never made the majors.
Bob Boring Minor Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com
Targets locked: who should Breslow bring to Boston this winter?
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Bob Boring Minor Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com
Higher AAV over the first two years, but only vesting options for 26-27. He had a larger overall guarantee (with player options 26-27, and a club option in 28) in Chicago.
He liked Chicago, reportedly. His agent was there and he spent a lot of time there before signing.
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If Jarren Duran is truly our most valuable trade asset, I’ll personally pack his bags. Not just because he’s hard to root for, but because his 2024 screams “career year” to me.
if people look at last year’s stats and make decisions, they’ll never sell high
but selling high is the best possible thing one can do
It might be.... but if his remaining 3 years average out at something in between his "career year" and his overall line from last year... .he's still an incredibly good player.
I still don't understand how to calculate WAR but wouldn't he look like at least a 4.5-5WAR player? That's tough to replace.
I guess the equation would be Bryan Woo plus Roman Anthony in LF, Cedanne Rafaela full time in CF minus... Pivetta? plus O'Neill?
Not a wishlist per se, but more of a passive aggressive way of pleading that we try to make plausible trade scenarios instead of the "We'd need to start with Anthony etc." for any non ace in arbitration.
I bit the bullet and got the premium BTV features. They calculate Duran's value by estimating what he'll make over the next 4 seasons (80 million) and then his value in projected fWAR (158 million). The surplus they use as his median value with the range being 62-94. The projection is based on him averaging 5 wins a year. He's probably earning at least 80 million (10 wins over 4 seasons) from his defense and speed, so even if his offense isn't great he still has a lot of value even as an average hitter. Even on the low end, his value for teams willing to pay that money is as a top 5 prospect in baseball.
If BTV used bWAR instead I'd put more stock in it, but it's interesting how they try and project prospects. I also hate pitcher WAR but it's still an enjoyable tool.
I believe the rules have changed for luxury tax AAV calculations and if he's traded, the AAV is reset based on the remaining deal. So the acquiring team isn't going to get the benefit of the $10M 2024 number. So he's 2/65 plus the club option or $32.5M per season.
Even if that's not the case, he also has a full no-trade in his contract. Considering he signed with the Cards to be closer to home, his price to waive the no-trade might be picking up the option or negotiating an extension. 3/90 is probably the minimum we should be assuming for him.
Setting aside the fact that I think trading Duran, even if he's "peaked," would mean setting our rebuild back just when it seems primed to take off (especially because Campbell and Anthony might need some time to adjust to the big leagues)...I can't think of a single time the Sox have traded a star like Duran before they've gotten through a few years of arbitration. Moncada, Hanley, when they were still prospects? Yes. Mookie, at the end of arbitration? Yes. Everyone else has basically stuck around till they were extended or hit free agency.
The exception is Benintendi, who got traded in his second arb year, but he was already showing signs of being less than his pedigree.
Bottom line is, Duran's the most valuable player on our team. We have a cupboard of other shiny stuff to deal that doesn't have a track record of being one of the most valuable players in baseball. Even if I find Duran's actions personally repulsive, I think it's bad business and bad for the future of the team to trade him.
And I agree with @grimshaw about evaluating Duran. The guy has been mashing the ball for two straight seasons. Nothing about his profile suggests that he's been lucky. Will he be as good next year? I don't know, but I do know it will be very difficult to replace his production.
Trade him in a year or two of Anthony and Campbell are settling in, sure, but in the meantime, use your prospects, or even better, just money to get the pitching you need in the short-term.
The exception is Benintendi, who got traded in his second arb year, but he was already showing signs of being less than his pedigree.
Bottom line is, Duran's the most valuable player on our team. We have a cupboard of other shiny stuff to deal that doesn't have a track record of being one of the most valuable players in baseball. Even if I find Duran's actions personally repulsive, I think it's bad business and bad for the future of the team to trade him.
And I agree with @grimshaw about evaluating Duran. The guy has been mashing the ball for two straight seasons. Nothing about his profile suggests that he's been lucky. Will he be as good next year? I don't know, but I do know it will be very difficult to replace his production.
Trade him in a year or two of Anthony and Campbell are settling in, sure, but in the meantime, use your prospects, or even better, just money to get the pitching you need in the short-term.
Interesting, I was not aware of that. Either way, I agree that it's unlikely.
All fair points.
I come to this from the perspective that the Sox need to trade an outfielder before Opening Day 2026 — Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, and Anthony can’t all play together without sub-optimizing one or more of their talents. If the trade values posted above are close to accurate, I think Duran is the guy to trade — Anthony and Rafaela have too much potential, and while Duran is probably better than Abreu, I think the gap is narrower than the conventional wisdom supposes.
Wilyer was worth 3.4 bWAR in 132 games. 8-win Duran would be tough to replace, but any significant regression and now it's not hard to picture Anthony, Campbell, O'Neill etc filling the void OK.
Rafaela does not deserve a starting job on opening day. I don't care how good he is at running balls down in center, a .275 OBP has no place in a major league lineup.
To be honest, I didn’t follow the team as closely since Labor Day and hadn’t realized how badly he finished the season (191/203/309 in September).
There were 13 players with OBPs under .280 who reached 400 PAs. Rafaela had the best rWAR of this group by a healthy margin; Siri, deJong, and Gelof snuck past him in fWAR.
Still, I don't think he's likely to get a starting job next season. The bar to crack this lineup is about to get a lot higher.
FWIW, just looking at playoff teams and sub .300 OBP players (and in all circumstances I excluded catchers).
The Yankees have two regulars in their line up with Volpe at .293 and Stanton at .298.
The O's have Jackson Holliday with a .255 OBP.
The Phils are giving (have been giving) regular PT to Johan Rojas (.279) and Austin Hays (.275).
The Braves have Orlando Arcia with a .272; Kelenic with a .284.
Cleveland has Gimenez with .298 and Lane Thomas with .267
The Royals have Garcia with .281, Melendez with .273, Isbel with .287, Frazier with .282 and Hampson with .275
Houston has Meyers with .286 and McCormick (injured now) with .271.
Those are just playoff teams. I'd bet a lot of them are penciled in to starting jobs next year, though admittedly not knowing a ton about the other players on those teams. If you have an excellent defensive player (which Rafaela certainly qualifies for in CF at minimum) there is certainly a place for them getting regular at bats (and in many cases "starting") on playoff caliber teams. The Red Sox have a decent number of holes to fill, but I don't think Rafaela is one of them.
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Those numbers honestly feel better than what my eye test told me I was seeing. He did have a couple hits in the final game, though.
He need not be guaranteed a starting job, but he's 23 and just wrapped up his first full season in MLB. This year's stats are probably more like his floor than his ceiling. The tailspin at the end would naturally represent a young kid hitting the wall. We know he has contact issues but let's see if he can make some progress there.
If the Sox are heading into 2025 with Houck, Bello, Crawford and Giolito I'd much rather see a more substantial addition than 2 years of Sonny Gray.
Edited as I forgot to include Giolito
To preface this post, this is the most excited I’ve been for an offseason in a while. I get that 2024 wasn’t the season we hoped for, although it was the one most of us expected, but I finally feel like we have a strong core that is built to carry this team into the next era of elite Red Sox baseball.
I actually don’t think this current roster is in need of as much turnover that most of you are suggesting. Injuries ravaged this team at points this year, and the depth didn’t allow them to recover at times.
I would love to go out and spend the money on Corbin Burnes. Obviously it’s going to cost a ton, somewhere in the 7/210 range imo, but he’s a stud who has proven to stay healthy and that he can pitch in the AL East to an elite level. This way we can acquire the ace of the rotation without having to deplete a big chunk of our farm system. This gives a rotation of Burnes, Houck, Bello, Crawford, and Giolito. I am very impressed the way Fitts pitched the last month of the season and would love to see him get a shot in the rotation if one of those guys go down
I would give the QO to TON, and if he takes it play him in a similar role they did this year and hope he can stay healthy, and if he declines it go out and sign Teoscar Hernandez, whose swing looks like would translate great to Fenway.
I would approach the Athletics and see what they want for Mason Miller. I would include Wilyer Abreu for sure as I think he makes the most sense to deal. Duran is a stud imo and gets an unfair judgment in this forum. Not sure exactly what it would take to get him, but if we could get it done without giving up one of the big 4 it seems like a no brainer. Resign Chris Martin and the back end of the bullpen all of a sudden seems set.
Obviously more moves would need to be made but I feel like this would be a really great start to an exciting offseason.
To preface this post, this is the most excited I’ve been for an offseason in a while. I get that 2024 wasn’t the season we hoped for, although it was the one most of us expected, but I finally feel like we have a strong core that is built to carry this team into the next era of elite Red Sox baseball.
I actually don’t think this current roster is in need of as much turnover that most of you are suggesting. Injuries ravaged this team at points this year, and the depth didn’t allow them to recover at times.
I would love to go out and spend the money on Corbin Burnes. Obviously it’s going to cost a ton, somewhere in the 7/210 range imo, but he’s a stud who has proven to stay healthy and that he can pitch in the AL East to an elite level. This way we can acquire the ace of the rotation without having to deplete a big chunk of our farm system. This gives a rotation of Burnes, Houck, Bello, Crawford, and Giolito. I am very impressed the way Fitts pitched the last month of the season and would love to see him get a shot in the rotation if one of those guys go down
I would give the QO to TON, and if he takes it play him in a similar role they did this year and hope he can stay healthy, and if he declines it go out and sign Teoscar Hernandez, whose swing looks like would translate great to Fenway.
I would approach the Athletics and see what they want for Mason Miller. I would include Wilyer Abreu for sure as I think he makes the most sense to deal. Duran is a stud imo and gets an unfair judgment in this forum. Not sure exactly what it would take to get him, but if we could get it done without giving up one of the big 4 it seems like a no brainer. Resign Chris Martin and the back end of the bullpen all of a sudden seems set.
Obviously more moves would need to be made but I feel like this would be a really great start to an exciting offseason.
To be fair, his last month or so was pretty bad.
I’m agnostic about trading Duran, even though I think it’s clear we really should trade somebody. Fine in principle trading him because of the particular depth we have, his age, and the possibility of further volatility. But I don’t know that we’ll be able to find a willing team and an equivalent package across the league. Your points make sense to me too.
We're in for a really exciting offseason, I think.
I feel like Duran is going to be a Marcus Smart of sorts where he has more value to the Sox than other teams and a meaningful deal will be very hard to come by. But, as we saw with the Porzingis trade, you just never know when the right deal will come around.
You also have to expect that there is probably a decent spread of Duran valuations across the league.
There might be some risk on a long term deal but he's been so consistent, and makes just about all of his starts. I think the Sox can tolerate some risk here. If they miss out on Burnes, or don't go after him, I won't be too sad since they will then have money to use some other way, but he sure looks exactly like what we need -- a solid rotation anchor who takes some pressure off the other guys. His 3.4 bWAR isn't off the charts, .1 behind Houck.
Their needs are very very clear. I would:
-Go up to 8/250 for Burnes, because this is baseball now. Cole got 9/324 coming off a career year. Maybe you can get him for 7 years instead.
-Plan B is the best available pitcher via trade. I'm thinking Crochet is the best bet since they could buy out his arbitration years and keep it out of the riskier "mega-contract" territory.
-Plan C is Flaherty but his market could be all over the place.
Sign Shane Bieber to those popular 2 year Tommy John deals.
Move Hamilton for a bounce back candidate like Camilo Doval. Or see if the Cards would move Helsley. He's a year out from free agency and they seem very mid.
Sign Tanner Scott.
The Rays can still compete with anyone by trade, and the O's could/should start spending so the Sox just need to go all Dombrowski this offseason if John Henry can be woken up with a stick.
-Go up to 8/250 for Burnes, because this is baseball now. Cole got 9/324 coming off a career year. Maybe you can get him for 7 years instead.
-Plan B is the best available pitcher via trade. I'm thinking Crochet is the best bet since they could buy out his arbitration years and keep it out of the riskier "mega-contract" territory.
-Plan C is Flaherty but his market could be all over the place.
Sign Shane Bieber to those popular 2 year Tommy John deals.
Move Hamilton for a bounce back candidate like Camilo Doval. Or see if the Cards would move Helsley. He's a year out from free agency and they seem very mid.
Sign Tanner Scott.
The Rays can still compete with anyone by trade, and the O's could/should start spending so the Sox just need to go all Dombrowski this offseason if John Henry can be woken up with a stick.
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Gray has had as good a year as the free agent guys. He's going to cost $60m for 2 years, which is going to be similar in AAV terms as the other guys. It's only a 2-year commitment. We have $60m before the CBT, get Gray, trade Yoshida (and eat a lot of money) for bullpen help, sign a RHH, spend more on the BP and be aggressive with Anthony and Campbell.
With Bloom ostensibly taking over the Cardinals, there’s a lot of realism to a Gray deal with Bloom knowing our farm inside and out.
I had looked at Gray’s contract incorrectly before. Here’s what he’s due
2025: $25
2026: $35
2027: $30 club option ($5 buyout)
If the team exercises the 2027 option, Gray can opt out and forgo the buyout. Seems unlikely, since he will be 38.
So figure it’s either 2/$65 or 3/$90.
How appealing is that for a guy who is going to be 35?
2025: $25
2026: $35
2027: $30 club option ($5 buyout)
If the team exercises the 2027 option, Gray can opt out and forgo the buyout. Seems unlikely, since he will be 38.
So figure it’s either 2/$65 or 3/$90.
How appealing is that for a guy who is going to be 35?
If he can keep pitching like he was at 33 & 34, quite. But doing that along with trading prospects for him? I'd rather hit FA or trade for a younger guy.
I don't really disagree, but could they do better than that one a 1 or 2 year deal, is part of the question, too. It isn't just the single year money, but a guy like Burnes is going to be paid for a long, long time.
I still prefer going after Burnes, FWIW, but I can see the merits of either route.
I'll point out again that his deal also includes a no-trade, and he signed with the Cardinals to be closer to home. It's entirely likely that he'll want something to waive the no-trade. Wouldn't surprise me if that was exercising the option because 3/90 would make it more worthwhile to move away from home than 2/65.
There is also a lot of realism to the fact that the Sox need a top of the order impact pitcher, preferably for more than 2 years ($25M in '25 and $35M in '26 with a club option for $30M in '27) If the Sox are looking for 2 starters, maybe Breslow kicks the tires, but I think they have a greater needs than Sonny Gray.
Plan A is no doubt finding a high end rotation piece, but perhaps there's a type of deal out there like this worth considering for some back end rotation depth as a second arm as well:
J. Montgomery + prospects for Yoshida (assuming Joe Peterson opt's out of his deal with them and their DH slot is open).
I would like to see the Sox go out and grab two starters, going into spring training with 6 guys (keep the kids in AAA). Montgomery was about as bad as you can get last year, however, he's got a track record of success and would be motivated to finish the year in a stronger position to get another contract since he's not super old. Only a one year commitment, might be worth seeing if Bailey can fix him (assuming his issues aren't health related). If he continues to suck, could just cut him loose no big deal. I'm a fan of Yoshida's, but it's painfully obvious at this point they'll be looking to dump him off. Would help balance out the roster, then you can use some other pieces for either a trade or signing someone for the top of the rotation.
This could be a formula for someone besides Montgomery, but if we're not going to sign FA's with our payroll space, I'd like to see them absorb some money to either A) lower the cost on an acquisition B) send money out to improve return on guys we're looking to move, such as Yoshida. This seems to be something the Dodgers do fairly regularly, never understood why we seem to be lessoning our returns on deals by making other teams eat contracts.
J. Montgomery + prospects for Yoshida (assuming Joe Peterson opt's out of his deal with them and their DH slot is open).
I would like to see the Sox go out and grab two starters, going into spring training with 6 guys (keep the kids in AAA). Montgomery was about as bad as you can get last year, however, he's got a track record of success and would be motivated to finish the year in a stronger position to get another contract since he's not super old. Only a one year commitment, might be worth seeing if Bailey can fix him (assuming his issues aren't health related). If he continues to suck, could just cut him loose no big deal. I'm a fan of Yoshida's, but it's painfully obvious at this point they'll be looking to dump him off. Would help balance out the roster, then you can use some other pieces for either a trade or signing someone for the top of the rotation.
This could be a formula for someone besides Montgomery, but if we're not going to sign FA's with our payroll space, I'd like to see them absorb some money to either A) lower the cost on an acquisition B) send money out to improve return on guys we're looking to move, such as Yoshida. This seems to be something the Dodgers do fairly regularly, never understood why we seem to be lessoning our returns on deals by making other teams eat contracts.
Say you get through ST with those 6 guys still healthy though, who are you sending to the bullpen? I don't see how you can demote any of Houck/Bello/Crawford after the work they put in this year without a massive failure in performance a la Pivetta 2023.
I think it would depend on how confident they are that Giolito will be ready for the start of the season. If there is a decent chance he needs an extra month or two, then Montgomery would get the 5th spot to audition. Or, more likely, injuries take care of the potential roster crunch.
If you assume the Sox would have to staple $20M plus to Yoshida to trade him anyway, then acquiring Montgomery as the return and DFA'ing him if he doesn't show any sign of competency is no real loss anyway.
If you assume the Sox would have to staple $20M plus to Yoshida to trade him anyway, then acquiring Montgomery as the return and DFA'ing him if he doesn't show any sign of competency is no real loss anyway.
Pretty much this, seems to usually work itself out with someone needing more time or getting hurt during spring training.
Houck/Bello/Crawford would be a lock assuming they're good to go. In this scenario, you either 1) Start the year with the 6-man rotation 2) could try to flip Montgomery or Giolito to a team who needs another arm or 3) Montgomery goes to the long man role / DFA'd.
Crawford had a 4.65 FIP this past year, he had a 5.03 ERA after a great April. I think demoting him to the pen would be fine. Ultimately, though, worrying about what to do if you have six healthy and productive starters is silly. Having too many good pitchers is a problem that can be managed.
Agreed, it seems like we are always an arm short when we break camp for one reason or another. Hadn't thought much about this path, but if we're going big with a trade for an ace, perhaps Crawford is included, which would be another way to sort out.
Plenty of outcomes depending on how they approach things.
Sasaki likely isn't coming over until he's 25 in a couple years, he'd be subject to normal IFA rules until then, like Ohtani was with the Angels.
I kinda feel like one of Snell, Fried or Burnes is a must. And i think they’ll do it. Too much cash to burn, timing is right, they know they need to start getting fans back and unlike last offseason, now’s the time to do it
I like this type of thinking about Montgomery. There are always a few guys in the proven-but-uncertain category — quite a lot this year — who end up delivering 2-4 bWAR seasons. Monty isn’t a bad bet, given that his annus horribilis was ruined before it began. Since he will come reasonably priced and hyper-motivated, it’s worth thinking about. They’ll know more about underlying stuff which could change the thinking, we’ll see.
Meaning a set contract, meaning we couldn’t outbid the dodgers if we wanted to. Set expectations very low.
The Sox do have an outside shot but yes, I agree it's mostly a dream. His situation is completely different than Yamamoto's (see below).
Sasaki was rumored to have tried to go after last season as a 22yo. I think it's very likely he ends up going this year. He threw a complete game (1 ER, 10 K) last night to clinch a playoff berth and apparently scouts from 10 MLB teams were in attendance up in Sendai. This article in Japanese says that Sasaki himself has been quiet about the timing of his potential departure but posits that the number of scouts in attendance last night strongly suggests it's go time.
imho this is correct. As @simplicio notes, if he makes the move for either the 2025 or 2026 seasons, he'll still be subject to normal IFA rules, and would only be able initially to sign a minor league deal. Which means since every team can afford him, he'll go wherever he wants to go. It's going to be a question of where he's the most comfortable, not who shells out the most dollars.
Maybe don't show him around Boston in January where he's sidestepping snow banks.
There's two aspects to the free agent market - identifying the right targets and then judging how much it would be to realistically sign them.
You also can't change the unchangeable. Yamamoto last year was highly coveted by MANY teams including the Sox. He basically got to choose where he wanted to go.
I'm happy they were able to identify their targets correctly. I hope the purse is open a little more this year.
If they've got a budget (and they do), I don't want them overpaying for mediocrity.
You also can't change the unchangeable. Yamamoto last year was highly coveted by MANY teams including the Sox. He basically got to choose where he wanted to go.
I'm happy they were able to identify their targets correctly. I hope the purse is open a little more this year.
If they've got a budget (and they do), I don't want them overpaying for mediocrity.
I agree that Burnes is option 1. I also hope he's option 2. I'm all in on and selling CB on Boston
I would also have interest in a Max Fried or possibly a Walker Beuller.
Crochet's an interesting name, but the history of relief pitching / combined with injury risk plus prospect cost would probably dissuade me.
At least when Beuller/Fried get injured it was only money.