I’ve been as hard on this ownership iteration as anyone but trying to remain optimistic: hopefully the ‘plus’ in $100m+ is doing some work.Wow $100m? Wonder how much they will ask to be deferred with those wild numbers.
Thanks for the heads up on this, here's the link for everyone:Alex Speier did a Reddit chat today. Some notable quotes from Alex.
"Last offseason, they hoped to make a big push for Yamamoto, but my understanding is the bidding vastly exceeded their expectations and they weren't particularly close."
"Largest contract the Sox hand out this offseason.... Whew. Lotta variables. But the team's urgency is such that I'd expect there to be a $100M+ deal this winter."
"There has not been a declaration that I'm aware of that the team will pass on giving O'Neill a qualifying offer.... but, it's also fair to wonder if the team will want to spend $20M to retain O'Neill for another year (I'd guess he'd accept the QO) or if there's a belief that another righthanded power hitter (or two) could be acquired for a lesser commitment."
"I wouldn't think "bargain bin" would be adequate, especially if O'Neill walks. But I do question whether they'll chase, for instance, Teoscar Hernandez given that the Dodgers will likely drop a qualifying offer on him.
In short: I expect the Sox to be in the market for impact righthanded bats, but it's too early to know whether that might be via trade or free agency."
And only one of those guys was a top 100 prospect at the time of the trade (Drew Thorpe, who was at #85).
A similar offer for Crochet from the Sox right now would be somewhere between Braden Montgomery (#54) and Franklin Arias (#95) as the headliner. What the Red Sox don't have is the pitching prospects that SD had, but who knows if the White Sox are looking for more pitching after getting Thorpe and Iriarte in the Cease deal. They need so much, I'm not sure they should be focusing solely on top pitching prospects in return, esp. with 4 of their current top 6 prospects being pitchers (and that doesn't include Thorpe now that he's in the majors).
Baseball trade values has Crochet's value at $42.2 which is #2 on that team behind Noah Schultz. It's not unreasonable to say that Crochet would be valued higher than that simply because the White Sox deliberately reduced his innings in the second half.There's no way we send Abreu over. We don't have to. We might not even have to send over one of the top four. Take a look at the history of these deals. Look at what the White Sox got for Dylan Cease, who had a much longer track record of success than Crochet.
Crochet has had exactly one good season, and in that season he didn't even break 150 innings.
It is odd to me that whenever we have these discussions, a majority of people seem to assume we're going to have to ship out one of our best young players, whether it be Duran or Abreu or Casas, when the history of these deals suggest that usually players nearing the end of arbitration get traded for prospects, and often not even super good ones. Again, Chris Sale, one of the best pitchers alive at the time he was traded, with half a dozen years of some of the best pitching baseball had ever seen, got traded for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, and two other guys who never amounted to anything.
Juan Soto, one of the very best hitters in all of baseball, got SD Michael King, Drew Thorpe, a 34 year old catcher, and a couple of lottery tickets. Why would Crochet cost a rookie of the year candidate?
Not that BTV numbers are predictive, but the Sox having so many top prospects creates the possibility for other top pitchers, imho:Baseball trade values has Crochet's value at $42.2 which is #2 on that team behind Noah Schultz. It's not unreasonable to say that Crochet would be valued higher than that simply because the White Sox deliberately reduced his innings in the second half.
The Red Sox have 5 guys that BTV values above Crochet, but here's the full top 14 (all I could fit on a screen) for reference:
View attachment 90855
Someone like Casas will likely see similar fluctuation in his value in 2025 as well. I can't imagine that he would be traded at the value listed here. Abreu had a very good year and gets you a pretty long way towards Crochet. I really think a deal like this gets it done for Crochet:
View attachment 90856
Alternatively, if they want younger pieces that they don't have to pay that soon. Another option is this:
View attachment 90857
"I feel like every team has the same opportunities when I got into free agency. I wouldn't say any team has an advantage. We'll evaluate what each has to offer."
"This year will stay in my heart for the rest of my life. It was really special. I'm proud of what I accomplished, largely thanks to Judge. The hard work I put in during the offseason paid off. I'm proud of myself and this group because they made it easy for me. I'm not sure what next year holds."
A close teammate admitted to The Athletic that he had no inkling of Soto's intentions in free agency, only merely suggesting that Soto genuinely enjoyed being a Yankee this year. He's never been able to read what Soto wants in free agency.
There's a prevailing notion that New York, with its strong Dominican roots and proximity to his home country, gives the Yankees and Mets an edge. However, Soto downplayed this aspect in his decision-making process. What will weigh heavily on his mind in the coming months is the realization that the Yankees possess a formidable core of stars, equal to any other organization in baseball.
"Leaving a winning team is always difficult, and this place was truly special. I've had a blast here. Regardless of where I end up, I'll be happy for my teammates and the connections I've made. This group is exceptional. In the end, we'll see what happens.
[Soto] also refrained from committing to instructing Boras to give the Yankees the final opportunity to match any offer in free agency, indicating that his single season in New York does not provide any clear advantage over other teams.
I don't believe that the high cost was the initial expectation, say, pre-WBC. Not even sure it was expected as of the middle of the 2023 season. It was essentially after the 2023 World Series ended that everyone realized that Yamamoto was going to be the 2nd most sought after free agent.Yamamoto bidding vastly exceeded internal expectations? When everyone knew a bidding war would get it at least to 250, probably 300?
You keep putting up these values like they have meaning beyond a fantasy trade analyzer, I am not sure why. I can tell you with a huge amount of certainty that Bleis, Abreu, and Winckowski are not getting you Crochet.Baseball trade values has Crochet's value at $42.2 which is #2 on that team behind Noah Schultz. It's not unreasonable to say that Crochet would be valued higher than that simply because the White Sox deliberately reduced his innings in the second half.
The Red Sox have 5 guys that BTV values above Crochet, but here's the full top 14 (all I could fit on a screen) for reference:
Edited down for responding, but thank you @simplicio @RedOctober3829 and @nvalvo for posting excerpts from Speier, and agree, he is excellent. Easily the baseball source I trust most when it comes to Red Sox in depth information and I basically take what he prints as the closest thing we have to knowing what is going on inside Yawkey Way.Good replies from Speier's AMA:
On expectations for this winter:
Expect them to deliver on their promise of a more aggressive offseason with moves made to bolster the 2025 team to the point where contention is a realistic (50th percentile?) outcome rather than something much less than that.
On overall spending outlook:
I don't know that the commitment was *ever* winning at *any* cost. They've always operated within budgetary parameters, though they were receptive in the past when Epstein or Dombrowski recommended pushing those limits. My *guess* is that we're going to see them spending to relative levels beyond the way that they've conducted business in the last handful of years. It wouldn't surprise me to see them spending to, say, the top 5-8 teams in baseball in the years to come. I'm not sure that I see them spending to the top of the sport and fielding payrolls that track with the current spending of the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees.
I think we're really lucky as a fan base to have Speier. He's top notch.
All of them add up to what we've already known all along: he intends to go to the highest bidder, period, end of story. Of course he's not giving preference to the Yankees with a "you'll get the chance to match the top offer" because he's going to give everyone that opportunity. I hope that no one gets the impression that the Sox will have a shot at signing him from reading that.Select Soto quotes after last night (per The Athletic)
The Athletic in December projected Yamamoto to get 7 years, $211 million:I don't believe that the high cost was the initial expectation, say, pre-WBC. Not even sure it was expected as of the middle of the 2023 season. It was essentially after the 2023 World Series ended that everyone realized that Yamamoto was going to be the 2nd most sought after free agent.
I agree that it's pure Borasese but I'm not at this level of pessimism. I think it comes down to the Yankees, Cubs, Mets, and Red Sox.All of them add up to what we've already known all along: he intends to go to the highest bidder, period, end of story. Of course he's not giving preference to the Yankees with a "you'll get the chance to match the top offer" because he's going to give everyone that opportunity. I hope that no one gets the impression that the Sox will have a shot at signing him from reading that.
Yeah. I mean, it gives some perspective, but trades don't happen in a vacuum, and the scarcity of quality starting pitching is the biggest factor of all. "He might not be worth X but where am I going to find another guy?" will be the refrain of many GMs this winter.You keep putting up these values like they have meaning beyond a fantasy trade analyzer, I am not sure why. I can tell you with a huge amount of certainty that Bleis, Abreu, and Winckowski are not getting you Crochet.
I would say if you were going to use the tool it would be to analyze a trade after it was made, but it is never going to make sense in a competitive market just to match value, since people will be willing to bid more. Also player's value is not really additive aka four quarters do not equal a dollar. The value is always higher in the single player.
For me it isn't a matter of whether the Sox can afford him or are willing to spend what he'll command. It's that if the Yankees are involved (and the Dodgers and Mets arguably are in this category now too), the Sox will be outbid no matter what they are willing to spend. Because they've never successfully outbid the Yankees on any free agent that both teams pursued. Ever. Why should we expect Soto be any different?I agree that it's pure Borasese but I'm not at this level of pessimism. I think it comes down to the Yankees, Cubs, Mets, and Red Sox.
I'm not saying any of this isn't true, but... are you saying you think that the Red Sox's Plan A was to sign Yamamoto for $250M and their Plan B was to sign Giolito for $38M?In mid-November or so, the Sox owners probably thought that if they were willing to go over $250 million for this guy that they would be the highest bidder. They were wrong about that, like pretty much everyone else.
Let's be clear, I LOVE Speier.On overall spending outlook:
I don't know that the commitment was *ever* winning at *any* cost. They've always operated within budgetary parameters, though they were receptive in the past when Epstein or Dombrowski recommended pushing those limits. My *guess* is that we're going to see them spending to relative levels beyond the way that they've conducted business in the last handful of years. It wouldn't surprise me to see them spending to, say, the top 5-8 teams in baseball in the years to come. I'm not sure that I see them spending to the top of the sport and fielding payrolls that track with the current spending of the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees.
Pretty sure that when the Sox were in the #1 (or lets just say top 3) spots, they were still right around the $LTT and possibly a tiny bit over, but certainly not blowing by it. I think that is what has changed. Other teams are now absolutely blowing by said threshold AND for some reason the Red Sox have stopped spending close to it or even going above.The Red Sox had the #1 payroll when they won in 2018, #3 in 2013, #2 in 2007, etc. Call that whatever you want ("winning at almost any cost," "paying to win," whatever), the idea of hand waving it away as "Well, the Red Sox were never willing to spent ANY amount to win" feels like answering a question that wasn't asked.
The Giants have tried to get people to take their money for quite some time.I wouldn’t sleep on the Giants in a Soto sweepstakes.
He was responding to: Question as one of the wealthiest teams and holders of other sport franchises. Is it really fair to say the ownership is still , forget the past committed to winning at any cost? Their mentality seems small market in a big market.But what's confusing to me about this answer is that this is both a straw man (who has ever demanded they win at *ANY!!!!* cost? There's no salary cap but I have yet to see anyone ever suggest they spent $400M a year) and inaccurate.
When the Red Sox were the #1 payroll team in the league (2018-2019) they were spending at or above the top threshold.Pretty sure that when the Sox were in the #1 (or lets just say top 3) spots, they were still right around the $LTT and possibly a tiny bit over, but certainly not blowing by it. I think that is what has changed. Other teams are now absolutely blowing by said threshold AND for some reason the Red Sox have stopped spending close to it or even going above.
I LIKE to think that this was a function of them no longer trusting the person buying the groceries, but this year will tell the tale, at least in my opinion. I'm cautiously optimistic they're going to be back around $LTT in terms of spending, but of course it's all words until they actually spend.
Right, but I was trying to include more data points for a larger sample size.When the Red Sox were the #1 payroll team in the league (2018-2019) they were spending at or above the top threshold.
2018 = ~$239M, $197M base threshold, two teams paid tax (Sox and Nationals)
2019 = ~$240M, $206M base threshold, three teams paid tax (Sox, Yankees, Cubs)
Those are their outlier years in all of the luxury tax era. Any other time they've gone over the threshold, it's been by a few million at most. I don't think it's a matter of trust or no trust so much as those years are marked by a GM/POBO who had no qualms about spending ownership's money until they told him to stop. The others (Theo, Cherington, Bloom) arguably saw the value in restraint in pursuit of longer term sustainability.
The bolded isn't really true at all, at least in terms of percentage of the cap. Working backwards, this is how far they've been over/under the threshold (all numbers from Cot's)...Right, but I was trying to include more data points for a larger sample size.
The luxury tax ("as we know it" so with a set amount) started in earnest in the early 2000s.
In 2004 it was $120.5m (Sox were #2 in spending at about $124m).
In 2005 it was $128m (Sox were #2 at $123m)
In 2006 it was $136m (Sox were #2 at $120m)
In 2007 it was $148m (Sox were #2 at $143m)
I stopped looking beyond that, but I recall them pretty consistently being #2 in spending (or at least lets say in the top 3) but infrequently going above the $LTT (until DDSki). That spending pattern changed recently where they haven't been in the top 5 and haven't been all that close to the $LTT, at least in the past several seasons.
https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/payroll_year/2007
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_luxury_tax#:~:text=This resulted in a compromise,the fifth and sixth teams.
My hope is that they get back into the top 5 range, meaning right around the $LTT (at least using the past few years of data).
Somewhere along the line it stopped being "just" the Yankees that just blew through the tax to include maybe 4 or 5 teams, with the Sox coming in below said threshold.
Got it, thanks for the context. I still find it... an odd dodge from Speier to argue with the "text of the law" as opposed to "spirit of the law" on this one. As @Red(s)HawksFan says below:He was responding to: Question as one of the wealthiest teams and holders of other sport franchises. Is it really fair to say the ownership is still , forget the past committed to winning at any cost? Their mentality seems small market in a big market.
Call that whatever you want. I think the question is a valid one that Speier doesn't answer, beyond suggesting they'll spend like a… I don’t know… “upper middle class” franchise with a top 5-8 payroll (the Texas/Atlanta/Toronto tier)?When the Red Sox were the #1 payroll team in the league (2018-2019) they were spending at or above the top threshold.
2018 = ~$239M, $197M base threshold, two teams paid tax (Sox and Nationals)
2019 = ~$240M, $206M base threshold, three teams paid tax (Sox, Yankees, Cubs)
Those are their outlier years in all of the luxury tax era. Any other time they've gone over the threshold, it's been by a few million at most. I don't think it's a matter of trust or no trust so much as those years are marked by a GM/POBO who had no qualms about spending ownership's money until they told him to stop. The others (Theo, Cherington, Bloom) arguably saw the value in restraint in pursuit of longer term sustainability.
I don’t think the Mets spent to win this season. Almost half their payroll is being sent to other teams. They spent - on the 26-40 players on their ‘24 team- to just do what Bloom-era Sox did- compete/don’t look like you’re phoning it in/maybe good luck-good health and things work out. They spent to win it all in ‘23 and the ‘24 payroll was still stuck in that yesr.I'm not saying any of this isn't true, but... are you saying you think that the Red Sox's Plan A was to sign Yamamoto for $250M and their Plan B was to sign Giolito for $38M?
Maybe they felt Yamamoto was the only one truly worth it but I'm skeptical that they were ever serious about spending that kind of money.
Let's be clear, I LOVE Speier.
But what's confusing to me about this answer is that this is both a straw man (who has ever demanded they win at *ANY!!!!* cost? There's no salary cap but I have yet to see anyone ever suggest they spent $400M a year) and inaccurate.
The Red Sox had the #1 payroll when they won in 2018, #3 in 2013, #2 in 2007, etc. Call that whatever you want ("winning at almost any cost," "paying to win," whatever), the idea of hand waving it away as "Well, the Red Sox were never willing to spent ANY amount to win" feels like answering a question that wasn't asked.
Using the Cots unofficial numbers, we have:The bolded isn't really true at all, at least in terms of percentage of the cap. Working backwards, this is how far they've been over/under the threshold (all numbers from Cot's)...
2024 (12th in MLB) = 14M under = 94% of cap
2023 (12th in MLB) = 7M under = 96% of cap
2022 (5th in MLB) = 12M over = 105% of cap
2021 (6th in MLB) = 5M under = 97% of cap
2020 (8th in MLB) = 10M under = 95% of cap (extracting pro-rated salaries to full season numbers)
2019 (1st in MLB) = 36M over = 117% of cap
2018 (1st in MLB) = 36M over = 118% of cap
2017 (6th in MLB) = 12M under = 93% of cap
Prior to that, Cot's doesn't have the cap numbers readily available and I don't have the time to go searching for them, so I'll stop there.
They're not falling out of the top 5 because they've significantly changed their spending philosophy relative to the luxury tax threshold. They're out of the top 5 because other teams are spending more.
Don't the Mets have a lot of money coming off the books this winter?I don’t think the Mets spent to win this season. Almost half their payroll is being sent to other teams. They spent - on the 26-40 players on their ‘24 team- to just do what Bloom-era Sox did- compete/don’t look like you’re phoning it in/maybe good luck-good health and things work out. They spent to win it all in ‘23 and the ‘24 payroll was still stuck in that yesr.
smartly they were totally out of it and dealt their biggest assets (and budget busters) enough to not have to totally tank for years and to get something from those sales
There was a report a couple years back that he preferred the East Coast that I'd remembered.I wouldn’t sleep on the Giants in a Soto sweepstakes.
Yeah, the Verlander money is over. Without looking it up, I think it’s $35M they were paying Houston. Alonso. I’m sure there’s more but that $55M right there. They’re going hard for Soto.Don't the Mets have a lot of money coming off the books this winter?
Per Cot's, they were at ~$356M this year. They have them projected at $183M right now for 2025, which is roughly $57M under the first luxury tax threshold. So yeah, they've got money to burn this winter.Don't the Mets have a lot of money coming off the books this winter?
This is pretty much where I am as well. Soto is not coming here. Although a generational talent as an on base machine, I hate the idea of tying up that much money in one player.Count me as out on Soto. He’s an amazing OBP machine and would probably rake at Fenway, but not at the money and years he’ll be getting from someone else.
I would love to do the following:
1. Sign Buehler to a 4-5 year deal (if necessary) with plenty of IP incentives. In a perfect world, BOS would be able to get him for 3 years plus a vesting option or two. I think the bidding goes higher than that though.
2. Trade from the Abreu, Mayer, etc group (non CATs) to land a Gilbert or Crochet type.
3. See if there’s a market for Yoshida. If so, unload as much of that salary as possible.
4. Extend a QO to O’Neill. Or if he’s willing to do a 2-3 year deal, that may be preferable.
5. Grab a couple of bullpen pieces.
6. Stsrt/continue testing the early extension waters with some of our homegrown players.
An offseason like this wouldn’t break the bank and would have me fired up for next year. Get it done, Theo!
Yeah, like Yamamoto last year, I’ve settled on Fried as my guy. He’s a little older than I’d like but that’s tempered by the fact that he hasn’t even reached 900 IP yet. His rapport with Giolito could possibly get Lucas to come back on a fair deal, if 2025 goes well. Fried may not be a true ace but he’s close to one, if not there already, and looks likely to be a solid 1/2 for at least a few more years.This is pretty much where I am as well. Soto is not coming here. Although a generational talent as an on base machine, I hate the idea of tying up that much money in one player.
i would, however rather sign Fried than Buehler. I hope Giolito’s recruiting skills are top notch.
I’m also extending the QO to O’Neill. If he accepts, there is your RH power, especially if you’re able to move Yoshida and have more of a rotating DH. If he declines, take the draft pick and go after Teoscar.
The bolded isn't really true at all, at least in terms of percentage of the cap. Working backwards, this is how far they've been over/under the threshold (all numbers from Cot's)...
Prior to that, Cot's doesn't have the cap numbers readily available and I don't have the time to go searching for them, so I'll stop there.
They're not falling out of the top 5 because they've significantly changed their spending philosophy relative to the luxury tax threshold. They're out of the top 5 because other teams are spending more.
Edited down for the sake of responding, but I run into this issue a ton as well, @dynomite. I always like using those sites that show all teams so that it tries to give context as to spending, but is there a site that is known to be the "best" on the board, or is it kind of like a bWAR / fWAR situation where the methodologies are so different that anyone (self included) can basically find a statistic to prove their point.It's interesting how different the numbers are.
Sportrac has the 2024 Sox at $213M in "total cap allocations" // $190M in "adjusted payroll total," and in 2023 had them at $206M // $182M.
I'm sure there are complicated reasons why it's different.
I think it is somewhat important that Giolito has a connection to Fried from Harvard Westlake HS. But maybe more importantly, they are both represented by CAA. As soon as the Yamamoto sweepstakes ended last winter, Giolito was one of the first to sign. Unlike the Boras clients, who didn't until ST. How'd that work out? I'd love to see Breslow pounce early.Yeah, like Yamamoto last year, I’ve settled on Fried as my guy. He’s a little older than I’d like but that’s tempered by the fact that he hasn’t even reached 900 IP yet. His rapport with Giolito could possibly get Lucas to come back on a fair deal, if 2025 goes well. Fried may not be a true ace but he’s close to one, if not there already, and looks likely to be a solid 1/2 for at least a few more years.
Add Fried and a healthy Giolito to Houck, Bello, and Crawford and you have the makings of a solid rotation with room for improvement.
And if you add Fried AND add a Seattle guy in trade, you have the potential of a really good rotation.
There is going to be a ton of competition for Fried but he’s a guy the Sox need to be heavily on.
Would love to get Fried and Martinez. That would be a great haul for the pitching staff.Nick Martinez is next year's Seth Lugo. He'd fit perfectly as an occasional starter and bullpen piece, a role he has thrived in for the last three years (35 starts and 152 appearances). Plus, he has room to improve by getting out of Cincy, where he's had a 4.00 ERA and .769 OPS v. on the road, .218 ERA and .503 OPS. He's 34 and would hopefully sign a two year deal. Maybe 2 years, $35 million?
View attachment 90968
~170M looks roughly right for opening day cash payroll for the 26 man roster.Edited down for the sake of responding, but I run into this issue a ton as well, @dynomite. I always like using those sites that show all teams so that it tries to give context as to spending, but is there a site that is known to be the "best" on the board, or is it kind of like a bWAR / fWAR situation where the methodologies are so different that anyone (self included) can basically find a statistic to prove their point.
Baseball Cube (which I always thought of as solid) has wildly different numbers from Spotrac (which I also like) and Cots (which @Red(s)HawksFan was using. I used baseball cube because it went back the furthest (that I could find) but it's methodology recently seems out of whack.
Just using 2023 as an example, Cots had the Sox at $226m (which is wildly different from), Spotrac which had them around $207m and BBCube had them at $167m.
I have personally come to like Spotrac more and more, but they don't go back beyond the past couple of years to show long term trend (thus using BBcube to go back to Theo).
I had a long post last offseason going through the numbers on 4 of these payroll tracking sites (Redsox payroll twitter account, Cot's, Fangraphs, Spotrac) and found Spotrac to be pretty poor at the finer points. The @redsoxpayroll twitter account was the most accurate and Cot's was pretty good too. I think the thing to verify with Cot's is whether they are including the pre-arb/non-guaranteed contracts in the bottom number.Edited down for the sake of responding, but I run into this issue a ton as well, @dynomite. I always like using those sites that show all teams so that it tries to give context as to spending, but is there a site that is known to be the "best" on the board, or is it kind of like a bWAR / fWAR situation where the methodologies are so different that anyone (self included) can basically find a statistic to prove their point.
Baseball Cube (which I always thought of as solid) has wildly different numbers from Spotrac (which I also like) and Cots (which @Red(s)HawksFan was using. I used baseball cube because it went back the furthest (that I could find) but it's methodology recently seems out of whack.
Just using 2023 as an example, Cots had the Sox at $226m (which is wildly different from), Spotrac which had them around $207m and BBCube had them at $167m.
I have personally come to like Spotrac more and more, but they don't go back beyond the past couple of years to show long term trend (thus using BBcube to go back to Theo).
Do you mind reposting? I'd be interested to read!I had a long post last offseason going through the numbers on 4 of these payroll tracking sites (Redsox payroll twitter account, Cot's, Fangraphs, Spotrac) and found Spotrac to be pretty poor at the finer points. The @redsoxpayroll twitter account was the most accurate and Cot's was pretty good too. I think the thing to verify with Cot's is whether they are including the pre-arb/non-guaranteed contracts in the bottom number.
Preamble – apologies for the incredibly long post, but I think going through the fine details is the only way to do this. Maybe this should be its own thread, but it seemed to fit some of the discussion being had here.
There has been a lot of discussion lately around the remaining budget with various numbers for the current payroll being thrown around, so I thought this might be a good time to do a deep dive into tracking the payroll. This is something I have done personally for a while, typically using Cot’s as my main resource, but I have seen a lot of references to the Red Sox Payroll twitter account which I was unfamiliar with. I went through the payroll spreadsheets for four sources (Fangraphs, Spotrac, Cot’s, and RSP twitter) to look at where they were different and try to come up with the most accurate accounting.
TLDR version – The Red Sox Payroll twitter account is the best resource with both results and methodology considered. It may be slightly conservative on the incentives/bonuses, but only by a few million dollars at most and I would need to spend some time looking at specific incentive clauses in contracts to determine how likely they are to vest.
The four sites group the money into 7 categories, with Cot’s and RSP each having a unique extra category. The categories are: Guaranteed contracts, Arb players, Pre-arb players, Players no longer on team, Benefits/medical expenses, 40 man roster minor league players, Pre-arb bonus pool. Cot’s has a separate line item for IL time since an additional ML minimum player will be added even though the injured player is getting paid as well. RSP has a unique line item for incentives and bonuses that players may hit during the year.
Guaranteed Contracts
Total AAV on guaranteed contracts – $122.1M
- Devers – 10 year $313.5M with deferred money. Without knowing the exact details in the contract I don’t think this an AAV we can calculate on our own, but all 4 sites have it as an AAV between $29.0M and $29.15M. I will put this down at $29.1M
- Story – 6 year $140M. There is some club option and player opt out language but nothing that really affects the AAV. All four sites agree at an AAV of $23.33M
- Giolito – 2 year $38.5M with a player opt out after the first year. All four sites agree at an AAV of $19.25M
- Yoshida – 5 year $90M. All four sites agree at an AAV of $18M
- Jansen – 2 year $32M. All four sites agree at an AAV of $16M
- Martin – 2 year $17.5M. This one is confusing since two of the sites have an AAV of $8.75M and 2 sites have it at $7.5M. The only unique thing I can find about his contract is a $4M signing bonus which I don’t think affects the AAV, so I am going with the straight math - $8.75M
- Whitlock – 4 year $18.75M. All four sites agree at an AAV of $4.688M
- Refsnyder – 1 year $1.85M with a club option and 150k buyout. The sites are split on whether this is an AAV of $1.85M or $2M, but I believe the buyout is counted as guaranteed money so I am going with $2M
- Criswell – 1 year $1M. This was a major league contract but he has options remaining. Even if he spends the entire year in the minors I believe he still counts against the major league payroll. Spotrac, Cot’s and I think Fangraphs all count him while RSP lists Criswell and his contract but does not have a number included for him in the spreadsheet. This seems to just be a mistaken omission from RSP - $1M
Fangraphs Total - $120.87M
Spotrac Total - $120.92M
Cot’s Total - $120.87M
RSP - $120.86M
Arb players
The team settled with all four arb eligible players yesterday.
Total AAV on arb contracts - $16.0M
- Pivetta - $7.5M
- O’Neill - $5.85M
- McGuire - $1.5M
- Schreiber - $1.175M
Pre-arb players
We can quibble over exactly who makes the team, but 12 guaranteed contracts (including arb eligible players, excluding Criswell) leaves 14 spots to be filled by pre-arb players. Major league minimum this year is $740k but there is typically some small bumps for players with more service time so I did a flat $0.75M per spot.
Total AAV for pre-arb players - $10.5M
There is a large variation in this number across the four sites, so I dug into each of their methodologies.
Fangraphs Total - $15.06M. Fangraphs has a footnote spelling out where this number comes from - “factoring in IL time, each time will need to pay for at least 33 player seasons over the course of the regular season. This number is calculated by subtracting the number of guaranteed and arbitration year contracts from 33 … and then multiplying the number that remains … by the league minimum salary.” See the discussion below on IL time for research into the 33 number.
Spotrac Total - $10.01M. Spotrac does not seem to account for IL time in their total.
Cot’s Total – $14.9M. Cot’s looks to be accounting for 13 pre-arb players as well as a unique line item for an additional 7 pre-arb players to cover IL time, each at $0.745M.
RSP - $7.94M. RSP only lists a number for 10 pre-arb players (which does not even fill the 26 man roster), but they have a much higher number ($12M) for the 40 man roster minor league salaries. The other 3 sites have the 40 man mL salaries as follows:
Fangraphs - $2.5M
Spotrac - $2.25M
Cot’s - $2.25M
In order to compare apples to apples, I combined the pre-arb salaries, 40 man minor league salaries, and IL time salaries into one number for all of the sites. This reduced the variance between sites significantly, with the totals below:
Fangraphs - $17.56M
Spotrac - $12.26M
Cot’s - $17.15M
RSP – $19.94M
Spotrac is the obviously deficient one here by both result and methodology. The other 3 all end up fairly close, with exactly how much IL time to account for being the difference. I attempted a little research into the 33 player seasons quoted by Fangraphs, but I was only able to find one source for total IL time by team. Ironically enough Spotrac has an IL tracker that you can sort to cumulative team stats and over the 2021-2023 period the average team had a combined 1528 days of IL time per season, or the equivalent of 9.43 player seasons. On top of the 26 man roster, that equates to a total of 35.43 player seasons required to finish the regular season, and that is just the average. I have no idea how MLB teams account for this variance, but at the very least I think we should cover the average.
(35.43 player seasons – 26 roster spots)*($0.74M) = $6.98M AAV for IL time
Added to the $10.5M for the pre-arb 26 man roster spots and $2.25M for minor league salaries results in:
Total AAV for Pre-arb, IL and mL salaries = $19.73M
Benefits
Fangraphs, Spotrac and Cot’s are all at $17M for this, RSP has it at $16.5M. I will use the higher number - $17M AAV
Pre-arb Bonus Pool
I believe this is mandated by the CBA and all four sites agree at an AAV of $1.67M
Players no longer on the team
- Chris Sale – Spotrac, Cot’s, and RSP all agree that the AAV hit from the Sale trade is $17.0M. Fangraphs divides the money owed to Sale, Hosmer and Turner into odd groupings, but ultimately agrees that Sale counts as a $17.0M AAV for 2024. However, they also include $1.5M that they claim is from re-calculating the AAV after the trade. I do not believe this makes any sense since Atlanta now owns Sale’s contract, so any AAV recalculation would go on their books. In any case, that contract has since been torn up and replaced with a new contract so I do not believe it would still apply anyway. I am going to ignore the $1.5M, and go with an AAV of $17M
- Eric Hosmer – The same three sites all agree that Hosmer counts as a $0.74M hit (major league minimum), while Fangraphs has Hosmer at an AAV of $15.375M with San Diego paying $12.885M of that ($2.49M left over on the Sox budget). I honestly cannot figure out how they get to the 15.375 number. The original deal was $144M over 8 years, for an AAV of 18. However it was frontloaded with the first five years at $21M and the last 3 years at $13M. Since Hosmer was traded during the current CBA, his AAV has to be recalculated based his remaining contract at the time of the trade. What I don’t know is whether the salary for the year in which his traded is included in that, only partially, or not at all. If you include the whole 2022 salary, then you get a 4 year contract for $60M ($15M AAV). If you include only the remaining full years, it is a 3 year contract for $39M ($13M AAV). If the 2022 remaining contract is prorated based on how many games were left in the season, it would fall somewhere in between those two numbers. But none of those matches the $15.375M AAV listed by Fangraphs. In any case, I have spent way to much time researching and discussing Eric Fucking Hosmer so I am going to say that Fangraphs is wrong here and the other three are right - $0.74M AAV
- Justin Turner – Perhaps the most convoluted of the contracts to figure out, but I was saved by Speier. Fangraphs and RSP include an 2024 AAV hit of $4.15M for Turner do to the weirdness of his player option, but Spotrac and Cot’s do not include anything for him. Luckily I was able to dig up an old Globe article by Speier where he explicitly laid out that Turner would count as a $4.15M hit against the 2024 budget if he opted out. I trust Speier more than anyone to investigate stuff like this - $4.15M AAV
Total AAV for players no longer on team - $21.89M
Incentives and Bonuses
Red Sox Payroll twitter is the only one to include something for this – they list $5M to cover future bonuses and incentives that players may hit throughout the season. It does make sense to try to account for this, but I do not know how teams would approach this. I think it is overly conservative to consider that all incentives will be met, and without going through the incentives for each contract I have no idea if the $5M figure is the max amount or something less than that. I think I will calculate the total without anything here and this would need to be accounted for when considering how much headroom to leave under the limit.
Total 2024 AAV
The table below shows the totals for each of the four sources along with the total of my conclusions above.
View attachment 76492
Fangraphs actually comes out almost exactly the same as my numbers above, but their methodology around Hosmer and Sale is suspect. Spotrac leaves out money for Turner and to cover IL time and therefore comes out significantly lower than the others. Cot’s also leaves out Turner. RSP has everything nearly the same as me but does leave out Criswell and includes money for bonuses. I would say that I am pretty confident the Red Sox have somewhere between $35-40M left before they would hit the first threshold. I don’t know what there actual limit is going to be, but I hope they spend some of it, and soon.