Targets locked: who should Breslow bring to Boston this winter?

simplicio

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Alex Speier did a Reddit chat today. Some notable quotes from Alex.

"Last offseason, they hoped to make a big push for Yamamoto, but my understanding is the bidding vastly exceeded their expectations and they weren't particularly close."

"Largest contract the Sox hand out this offseason.... Whew. Lotta variables. But the team's urgency is such that I'd expect there to be a $100M+ deal this winter."

"There has not been a declaration that I'm aware of that the team will pass on giving O'Neill a qualifying offer.... but, it's also fair to wonder if the team will want to spend $20M to retain O'Neill for another year (I'd guess he'd accept the QO) or if there's a belief that another righthanded power hitter (or two) could be acquired for a lesser commitment."

"I wouldn't think "bargain bin" would be adequate, especially if O'Neill walks. But I do question whether they'll chase, for instance, Teoscar Hernandez given that the Dodgers will likely drop a qualifying offer on him.

In short: I expect the Sox to be in the market for impact righthanded bats, but it's too early to know whether that might be via trade or free agency."
Thanks for the heads up on this, here's the link for everyone:
https://www.reddit.com/r/redsox/comments/1gf0j84/im_alex_speier_a_sports_reporter_for_the_boston/
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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And only one of those guys was a top 100 prospect at the time of the trade (Drew Thorpe, who was at #85).

A similar offer for Crochet from the Sox right now would be somewhere between Braden Montgomery (#54) and Franklin Arias (#95) as the headliner. What the Red Sox don't have is the pitching prospects that SD had, but who knows if the White Sox are looking for more pitching after getting Thorpe and Iriarte in the Cease deal. They need so much, I'm not sure they should be focusing solely on top pitching prospects in return, esp. with 4 of their current top 6 prospects being pitchers (and that doesn't include Thorpe now that he's in the majors).
There's no way we send Abreu over. We don't have to. We might not even have to send over one of the top four. Take a look at the history of these deals. Look at what the White Sox got for Dylan Cease, who had a much longer track record of success than Crochet.

Crochet has had exactly one good season, and in that season he didn't even break 150 innings.

It is odd to me that whenever we have these discussions, a majority of people seem to assume we're going to have to ship out one of our best young players, whether it be Duran or Abreu or Casas, when the history of these deals suggest that usually players nearing the end of arbitration get traded for prospects, and often not even super good ones. Again, Chris Sale, one of the best pitchers alive at the time he was traded, with half a dozen years of some of the best pitching baseball had ever seen, got traded for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, and two other guys who never amounted to anything.

Juan Soto, one of the very best hitters in all of baseball, got SD Michael King, Drew Thorpe, a 34 year old catcher, and a couple of lottery tickets. Why would Crochet cost a rookie of the year candidate?
Baseball trade values has Crochet's value at $42.2 which is #2 on that team behind Noah Schultz. It's not unreasonable to say that Crochet would be valued higher than that simply because the White Sox deliberately reduced his innings in the second half.

The Red Sox have 5 guys that BTV values above Crochet, but here's the full top 14 (all I could fit on a screen) for reference:

90855

Someone like Casas will likely see similar fluctuation in his value in 2025 as well. I can't imagine that he would be traded at the value listed here. Abreu had a very good year and gets you a pretty long way towards Crochet. I really think a deal like this gets it done for Crochet:

90856

Alternatively, if they want younger pieces that they don't have to pay that soon. Another option is this:

90857
 

nvalvo

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Lots of interesting stuff in the Speier AMA. Some more nuggets:
  • On the bat-speed program: "It was introduced during Bloom's tenure by director of hitting Jason Ochart, whose hiring probably should be credited most directly to Brian Abraham (director of player development) and Paul Toboni (at the time of hiring, a VP of player development and scouting). While it's been successful in improving prospect performances, we're still about a year or two out from knowing the kind of impact it has on producing quality big league hitters."
  • On prioritizing the rotation vs. the bullpen: "I think they have the financial flexibility to look to both top-of-the-rotation and back-of-the-bullpen additions. And I expect *more* bullpen additions than starters. I do think we'll be seeing some 2024 starters landing in the bullpen, with Whitlock an obvious candidate to shift given his openness to any role that will keep him healthy."
  • On the question of Casas' trade value: "I'd say the chances of dealing Casas are low but greater than zero. They have to be openminded to anything, but the bar for dealing Casas would be very high -- you'd need to get a young, controllable, front-of-the-rotation guy, and I'm not sure that even if such a pitcher was available, that Casas would be seen as sufficient return given that he's coming off his injured and diminished season."
 

simplicio

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Good replies from Speier's AMA:

On 2nd half collapses:
Members of the organization are open to the idea that their second-half struggles have reflected depth shortcomings, particularly in the pitching pipeline. Unless/until that gets fixed, they'll have to be far more aggressive in trading for pitching depth if they want strong first-half performances to be something other than a mirage.

On expectations for this winter:
Expect them to deliver on their promise of a more aggressive offseason with moves made to bolster the 2025 team to the point where contention is a realistic (50th percentile?) outcome rather than something much less than that.

Regarding roster construction:
I think it's possible and even likely the team will look at ways to reconfigure the position group rather than simply adding to it. Breslow and Cora have talked so much about the lefthanded imbalance that it would be silly to think they won't be open to dealing lefthanded bats, especially with Anthony, Mayer, and Teel getting close to the big leagues.

On platooning rookies:
Most rookies get protected as platoon guys in their earliest exposure to the big leagues unless they deliver incredible defensive value even when overwhelmed offensively. (See: Rafaela, Ceddanne.) I'd think the Sox would try to protect any of the Big 3 just as they tried to protect Casas and Devers at the start of their big league careers.

On rotation vs bullpen additions:
I think they recognize the need to proceed on both fronts. I do think you're asking a great question about whether they're likely to prioritize elite players at the back of the bullpen over a front-of-the-rotation guy. But I think they have the financial flexibility to look to both top-of-the-rotation and back-of-the-bullpen additions. And I expect *more* bullpen additions than starters. I do think we'll be seeing some 2024 starters landing in the bullpen, with Whitlock an obvious candidate to shift given his openness to any role that will keep him healthy.

On overall spending outlook:
I don't know that the commitment was *ever* winning at *any* cost. They've always operated within budgetary parameters, though they were receptive in the past when Epstein or Dombrowski recommended pushing those limits. My *guess* is that we're going to see them spending to relative levels beyond the way that they've conducted business in the last handful of years. It wouldn't surprise me to see them spending to, say, the top 5-8 teams in baseball in the years to come. I'm not sure that I see them spending to the top of the sport and fielding payrolls that track with the current spending of the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees.

I think we're really lucky as a fan base to have Speier. He's top notch.
 

bressoud

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Baseball trade values has Crochet's value at $42.2 which is #2 on that team behind Noah Schultz. It's not unreasonable to say that Crochet would be valued higher than that simply because the White Sox deliberately reduced his innings in the second half.

The Red Sox have 5 guys that BTV values above Crochet, but here's the full top 14 (all I could fit on a screen) for reference:

View attachment 90855

Someone like Casas will likely see similar fluctuation in his value in 2025 as well. I can't imagine that he would be traded at the value listed here. Abreu had a very good year and gets you a pretty long way towards Crochet. I really think a deal like this gets it done for Crochet:

View attachment 90856

Alternatively, if they want younger pieces that they don't have to pay that soon. Another option is this:

View attachment 90857
Not that BTV numbers are predictive, but the Sox having so many top prospects creates the possibility for other top pitchers, imho:
- Pablo Lopez is due $21.8/year for the next three years. The Twins have already graduated a few starters, and the team is for sale.
- Luis Castillo is due $22M/year for the next four years, and he's arguably Seattle's fourth best starter.
- Jameson Taillon's due $36M over the next two years, and the Cubs have young pitchers coming.
Not to mention that Mayer and Anthony's 65FV rating with BTV would make trading them for Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo or Crochet a significant overpay.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Yamamoto bidding vastly exceeded internal expectations? When everyone knew a bidding war would get it at least to 250, probably 300?

Was Henry truly shocked when Mookie asked for Trout money?
 

chawson

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Select Soto quotes after last night (per The Athletic)

"I feel like every team has the same opportunities when I got into free agency. I wouldn't say any team has an advantage. We'll evaluate what each has to offer."
"This year will stay in my heart for the rest of my life. It was really special. I'm proud of what I accomplished, largely thanks to Judge. The hard work I put in during the offseason paid off. I'm proud of myself and this group because they made it easy for me. I'm not sure what next year holds."
A close teammate admitted to The Athletic that he had no inkling of Soto's intentions in free agency, only merely suggesting that Soto genuinely enjoyed being a Yankee this year. He's never been able to read what Soto wants in free agency.
There's a prevailing notion that New York, with its strong Dominican roots and proximity to his home country, gives the Yankees and Mets an edge. However, Soto downplayed this aspect in his decision-making process. What will weigh heavily on his mind in the coming months is the realization that the Yankees possess a formidable core of stars, equal to any other organization in baseball.
"Leaving a winning team is always difficult, and this place was truly special. I've had a blast here. Regardless of where I end up, I'll be happy for my teammates and the connections I've made. This group is exceptional. In the end, we'll see what happens.
[Soto] also refrained from committing to instructing Boras to give the Yankees the final opportunity to match any offer in free agency, indicating that his single season in New York does not provide any clear advantage over other teams.
 

lexrageorge

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Yamamoto bidding vastly exceeded internal expectations? When everyone knew a bidding war would get it at least to 250, probably 300?
I don't believe that the high cost was the initial expectation, say, pre-WBC. Not even sure it was expected as of the middle of the 2023 season. It was essentially after the 2023 World Series ended that everyone realized that Yamamoto was going to be the 2nd most sought after free agent.
 

TomRicardo

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Baseball trade values has Crochet's value at $42.2 which is #2 on that team behind Noah Schultz. It's not unreasonable to say that Crochet would be valued higher than that simply because the White Sox deliberately reduced his innings in the second half.

The Red Sox have 5 guys that BTV values above Crochet, but here's the full top 14 (all I could fit on a screen) for reference:
You keep putting up these values like they have meaning beyond a fantasy trade analyzer, I am not sure why. I can tell you with a huge amount of certainty that Bleis, Abreu, and Winckowski are not getting you Crochet.

I would say if you were going to use the tool it would be to analyze a trade after it was made, but it is never going to make sense in a competitive market just to match value, since people will be willing to bid more. Also player's value is not really additive aka four quarters do not equal a dollar. The value is always higher in the single player.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Good replies from Speier's AMA:

On expectations for this winter:
Expect them to deliver on their promise of a more aggressive offseason with moves made to bolster the 2025 team to the point where contention is a realistic (50th percentile?) outcome rather than something much less than that.

On overall spending outlook:
I don't know that the commitment was *ever* winning at *any* cost. They've always operated within budgetary parameters, though they were receptive in the past when Epstein or Dombrowski recommended pushing those limits. My *guess* is that we're going to see them spending to relative levels beyond the way that they've conducted business in the last handful of years. It wouldn't surprise me to see them spending to, say, the top 5-8 teams in baseball in the years to come. I'm not sure that I see them spending to the top of the sport and fielding payrolls that track with the current spending of the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees.

I think we're really lucky as a fan base to have Speier. He's top notch.
Edited down for responding, but thank you @simplicio @RedOctober3829 and @nvalvo for posting excerpts from Speier, and agree, he is excellent. Easily the baseball source I trust most when it comes to Red Sox in depth information and I basically take what he prints as the closest thing we have to knowing what is going on inside Yawkey Way.

I may be in the minority here, but I'd be more than fine with a payroll that is continually in the 5-8 range. I don't expect them (and never have) to continually outspend the Yankees (and now add the Dodgers to that mix) but I DO expect them to spend in the top 25% of the game (call it 7th). That is a level where I think it's reasonable to assume you can truly contend for a title. Hope that they get back there, and Speier saying it makes me more confident in it happening than anyone else could say (up until they actually spend, of course). That would put them (using last year's numbers from Spotrac https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/year/2024/sort/cap_total2) right around $235m (or close to the $LTT but with a little money to spend for in-season help), which is pretty much the way they spent with Theo and I hope what they'll do with Breslow.

We can only hope it's with the same success.

Also, solid job posting those values @HangingW/ScottCooper, appreciated. For the 3rd year in a row, I'm going to go with "if Bleis' value is close to that high, they should move him", but I can't imagine it really is.

I'm also surprised that Casas value is so low. I wouldn't trade him straight up for Crochet (whereas I would Mayer, for instance), but that is just me. I don't really want Casas moved, but if the return were in the Kirby / Gilbert area, etc area, I'd be on board. I don't think of Crochet in that way and am having a hard time figuring out who a reasonable target for him would even be (outside of Seattle). Someone like Bibee would make sense from a Sox perspective but not for Cleveland (they have Naylor already). After that, the list gets real short.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Select Soto quotes after last night (per The Athletic)
All of them add up to what we've already known all along: he intends to go to the highest bidder, period, end of story. Of course he's not giving preference to the Yankees with a "you'll get the chance to match the top offer" because he's going to give everyone that opportunity. I hope that no one gets the impression that the Sox will have a shot at signing him from reading that.
 

The Gray Eagle

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I don't believe that the high cost was the initial expectation, say, pre-WBC. Not even sure it was expected as of the middle of the 2023 season. It was essentially after the 2023 World Series ended that everyone realized that Yamamoto was going to be the 2nd most sought after free agent.
The Athletic in December projected Yamamoto to get 7 years, $211 million:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/live-blogs/mlb-free-agency-trades-rumors-live-updates-winter-meetings/pDdu23tjaORE/bIEfyixo5lSX/
MLB Trade Rumors in November guessed 9 years, $225 million:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html
Forbes in late November: he could get over $200 million!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/waynemcdonnell/2023/11/24/yoshinobu-yamamoto-influences-free-agency-beyond-200-million-contract/
Here's a classic from late October:
https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/2035/predictions-for-spotracs-top-10-mlb-free-agents
Prediction: 5 years, $85M, New York Mets

Obviously these all were way short of what Yamamoto ended up getting from the Dodgers after the other bidders drove up the price.
I can't find a SOSH predictions thread, but I am sure that early in the offseason most people here had him getting less than $225 million. Then the rumors started coming that he would get more than that, as much as $250 million, then later that he could get $300 million, then later that he would get even more than that.

In mid-November or so, the Sox owners probably thought that if they were willing to go over $250 million for this guy that they would be the highest bidder. They were wrong about that, like pretty much everyone else.
 

chawson

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All of them add up to what we've already known all along: he intends to go to the highest bidder, period, end of story. Of course he's not giving preference to the Yankees with a "you'll get the chance to match the top offer" because he's going to give everyone that opportunity. I hope that no one gets the impression that the Sox will have a shot at signing him from reading that.
I agree that it's pure Borasese but I'm not at this level of pessimism. I think it comes down to the Yankees, Cubs, Mets, and Red Sox.

I don't think an argument that the (relative) lack of spending over the last few years foreshadows a Soto signing would go over well on this board, but the aberrant spending behavior could explain an intention to go big with this particular player, if they think they've got a real shot. (There may also be deferrals to lower the AAV, as with Ohtani's contract).

The way this team is constructed, we can afford Soto and still be at the spending level that Speier and others project us at going forward. There are so many cheap regulars on this team.

2025 AAV
Soto - $42.9M (14/$600M)
Devers - $29
Fried - $25 (6/$150M)
Story - $23.3
Giolito - $19.3
Yoshida - $18
Bello - $9.2
Rafaela - $6.3
Hendriks - $5
Duran - $4.9~ (MLBTR estimate)
Whitlock - $4.7
Houck - $4.5~ (MLBTR estimate)
Crawford - $3.5~ (MLBTR estimate)
Refsnyder - $2
Fulmer - $1.5 (if promoted)
__$199.1 million (15 players)

Pre-arb candidates for the 26-man (currently on the 40 man or 60-day IL)

Casas, Wong, Abreu, Anthony, K. Campbell, Teel, Grissom, Valdez, Hamilton, Romy Gonzalez, Sogard, Gasper, (Jhostynxon Garcia)
Priester, Fitts, Penrod, Slaten, Guerrero, Winckowski, Gonzalez, Kelly, Bernardino, Criswell, Murphy, I. Campbell, Booser, Shugart, Horn, Perales, Mata
__$8.4 million ($760K x 11 roster spots) [Edited to give a more ballpark estimate]
______________
$207.5 million (total)

For the purposes of this exercise I'm not factoring trades, though of course there will be in any scenerio. I'm also assuming neither O'Neill or Pivetta accept a QO. Even if they did, that takes us up to $249.9 million — which would rank 10th among MLB teams in 2024 payroll — again, before any additional trades. (I'd assume Crawford would be dealt if Pivetta were to return, for example).
 
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chrisfont9

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You keep putting up these values like they have meaning beyond a fantasy trade analyzer, I am not sure why. I can tell you with a huge amount of certainty that Bleis, Abreu, and Winckowski are not getting you Crochet.

I would say if you were going to use the tool it would be to analyze a trade after it was made, but it is never going to make sense in a competitive market just to match value, since people will be willing to bid more. Also player's value is not really additive aka four quarters do not equal a dollar. The value is always higher in the single player.
Yeah. I mean, it gives some perspective, but trades don't happen in a vacuum, and the scarcity of quality starting pitching is the biggest factor of all. "He might not be worth X but where am I going to find another guy?" will be the refrain of many GMs this winter.

The values are probably quite useful for any trade not involving SP though.
 

BaseballJones

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Don't think this is worthy of a new thread so I'll put it here. ESPN's team rankings looking ahead. Here's what they say about the Sox, who they have at #10:

The Red Sox are sitting pretty, with an exciting young core led by Jarren Duran -- who had a breakout season in 2024 and was fourth in the majors with 83 extra-base hits -- and an impressive group of position player prospects all ready to hit the majors at some point in 2025 in Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel, who were all in the top 55 of ESPN Kiley McDaniel's midseason prospects update. Wilyer Abreu and defensive wizard Ceddanne Rafaela had promising rookie seasons, and hopefully the Red Sox will get a healthy season from Triston Casas. That leaves the pitching staff to upgrade and free agents to replace in Tyler O'Neill, Nick Pivetta, Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen. The question: Does owner John Henry have the desire to run a big payroll again after cutting back significantly the past few seasons?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I agree that it's pure Borasese but I'm not at this level of pessimism. I think it comes down to the Yankees, Cubs, Mets, and Red Sox.
For me it isn't a matter of whether the Sox can afford him or are willing to spend what he'll command. It's that if the Yankees are involved (and the Dodgers and Mets arguably are in this category now too), the Sox will be outbid no matter what they are willing to spend. Because they've never successfully outbid the Yankees on any free agent that both teams pursued. Ever. Why should we expect Soto be any different?
 

simplicio

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I've been thinking more about our DH situation and my take is unless they think his shoulder will be a major issue or they're doing a major upgrade there, like Soto or Rooker-level, they should just leave Yoshida in place. The rest of the lineup is going to be more balanced this year as is.
 

dynomite

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In mid-November or so, the Sox owners probably thought that if they were willing to go over $250 million for this guy that they would be the highest bidder. They were wrong about that, like pretty much everyone else.
I'm not saying any of this isn't true, but... are you saying you think that the Red Sox's Plan A was to sign Yamamoto for $250M and their Plan B was to sign Giolito for $38M?

Maybe they felt Yamamoto was the only one truly worth it but I'm skeptical that they were ever serious about spending that kind of money.

On overall spending outlook:
I don't know that the commitment was *ever* winning at *any* cost. They've always operated within budgetary parameters, though they were receptive in the past when Epstein or Dombrowski recommended pushing those limits. My *guess* is that we're going to see them spending to relative levels beyond the way that they've conducted business in the last handful of years. It wouldn't surprise me to see them spending to, say, the top 5-8 teams in baseball in the years to come. I'm not sure that I see them spending to the top of the sport and fielding payrolls that track with the current spending of the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees.
Let's be clear, I LOVE Speier.

But what's confusing to me about this answer is that this is both a straw man (who has ever demanded they win at *ANY!!!!* cost? There's no salary cap but I have yet to see anyone ever suggest they spent $400M a year) and inaccurate.

The Red Sox had the #1 payroll when they won in 2018, #3 in 2013, #2 in 2007, etc. Call that whatever you want ("winning at almost any cost," "paying to win," whatever), the idea of hand waving it away as "Well, the Red Sox were never willing to spent ANY amount to win" feels like answering a question that wasn't asked.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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The Red Sox had the #1 payroll when they won in 2018, #3 in 2013, #2 in 2007, etc. Call that whatever you want ("winning at almost any cost," "paying to win," whatever), the idea of hand waving it away as "Well, the Red Sox were never willing to spent ANY amount to win" feels like answering a question that wasn't asked.
Pretty sure that when the Sox were in the #1 (or lets just say top 3) spots, they were still right around the $LTT and possibly a tiny bit over, but certainly not blowing by it. I think that is what has changed. Other teams are now absolutely blowing by said threshold AND for some reason the Red Sox have stopped spending close to it or even going above.

I LIKE to think that this was a function of them no longer trusting the person buying the groceries, but this year will tell the tale, at least in my opinion. I'm cautiously optimistic they're going to be back around $LTT in terms of spending, but of course it's all words until they actually spend.
 

simplicio

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But what's confusing to me about this answer is that this is both a straw man (who has ever demanded they win at *ANY!!!!* cost? There's no salary cap but I have yet to see anyone ever suggest they spent $400M a year) and inaccurate.
He was responding to: Question as one of the wealthiest teams and holders of other sport franchises. Is it really fair to say the ownership is still , forget the past committed to winning at any cost? Their mentality seems small market in a big market.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Pretty sure that when the Sox were in the #1 (or lets just say top 3) spots, they were still right around the $LTT and possibly a tiny bit over, but certainly not blowing by it. I think that is what has changed. Other teams are now absolutely blowing by said threshold AND for some reason the Red Sox have stopped spending close to it or even going above.

I LIKE to think that this was a function of them no longer trusting the person buying the groceries, but this year will tell the tale, at least in my opinion. I'm cautiously optimistic they're going to be back around $LTT in terms of spending, but of course it's all words until they actually spend.
When the Red Sox were the #1 payroll team in the league (2018-2019) they were spending at or above the top threshold.

2018 = ~$239M, $197M base threshold, two teams paid tax (Sox and Nationals)
2019 = ~$240M, $206M base threshold, three teams paid tax (Sox, Yankees, Cubs)

Those are their outlier years in all of the luxury tax era. Any other time they've gone over the threshold, it's been by a few million at most. I don't think it's a matter of trust or no trust so much as those years are marked by a GM/POBO who had no qualms about spending ownership's money until they told him to stop. The others (Theo, Cherington, Bloom) arguably saw the value in restraint in pursuit of longer term sustainability.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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When the Red Sox were the #1 payroll team in the league (2018-2019) they were spending at or above the top threshold.

2018 = ~$239M, $197M base threshold, two teams paid tax (Sox and Nationals)
2019 = ~$240M, $206M base threshold, three teams paid tax (Sox, Yankees, Cubs)

Those are their outlier years in all of the luxury tax era. Any other time they've gone over the threshold, it's been by a few million at most. I don't think it's a matter of trust or no trust so much as those years are marked by a GM/POBO who had no qualms about spending ownership's money until they told him to stop. The others (Theo, Cherington, Bloom) arguably saw the value in restraint in pursuit of longer term sustainability.
Right, but I was trying to include more data points for a larger sample size.

The luxury tax ("as we know it" so with a set amount) started in earnest in the early 2000s.

In 2004 it was $120.5m (Sox were #2 in spending at about $124m).
In 2005 it was $128m (Sox were #2 at $123m)
In 2006 it was $136m (Sox were #2 at $120m)
In 2007 it was $148m (Sox were #2 at $143m)

I stopped looking beyond that, but I recall them pretty consistently being #2 in spending (or at least lets say in the top 3) but infrequently going above the $LTT (until DDSki). That spending pattern changed recently where they haven't been in the top 5 and haven't been all that close to the $LTT, at least in the past several seasons.

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/payroll_year/2007
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_luxury_tax#:~:text=This resulted in a compromise,the fifth and sixth teams.

My hope is that they get back into the top 5 range, meaning right around the $LTT (at least using the past few years of data).

Somewhere along the line it stopped being "just" the Yankees that just blew through the tax to include maybe 4 or 5 teams, with the Sox coming in below said threshold.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Right, but I was trying to include more data points for a larger sample size.

The luxury tax ("as we know it" so with a set amount) started in earnest in the early 2000s.

In 2004 it was $120.5m (Sox were #2 in spending at about $124m).
In 2005 it was $128m (Sox were #2 at $123m)
In 2006 it was $136m (Sox were #2 at $120m)
In 2007 it was $148m (Sox were #2 at $143m)

I stopped looking beyond that, but I recall them pretty consistently being #2 in spending (or at least lets say in the top 3) but infrequently going above the $LTT (until DDSki). That spending pattern changed recently where they haven't been in the top 5 and haven't been all that close to the $LTT, at least in the past several seasons.

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/payroll_year/2007
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_luxury_tax#:~:text=This resulted in a compromise,the fifth and sixth teams.

My hope is that they get back into the top 5 range, meaning right around the $LTT (at least using the past few years of data).

Somewhere along the line it stopped being "just" the Yankees that just blew through the tax to include maybe 4 or 5 teams, with the Sox coming in below said threshold.
The bolded isn't really true at all, at least in terms of percentage of the cap. Working backwards, this is how far they've been over/under the threshold (all numbers from Cot's)...

2024 (12th in MLB) = 14M under = 94% of cap
2023 (12th in MLB) = 7M under = 96% of cap
2022 (5th in MLB) = 12M over = 105% of cap
2021 (6th in MLB) = 5M under = 97% of cap
2020 (8th in MLB) = 10M under = 95% of cap (extracting pro-rated salaries to full season numbers)
2019 (1st in MLB) = 36M over = 117% of cap
2018 (1st in MLB) = 36M over = 118% of cap
2017 (6th in MLB) = 12M under = 93% of cap

Prior to that, Cot's doesn't have the cap numbers readily available and I don't have the time to go searching for them, so I'll stop there.

They're not falling out of the top 5 because they've significantly changed their spending philosophy relative to the luxury tax threshold. They're out of the top 5 because other teams are spending more.
 

dynomite

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He was responding to: Question as one of the wealthiest teams and holders of other sport franchises. Is it really fair to say the ownership is still , forget the past committed to winning at any cost? Their mentality seems small market in a big market.
Got it, thanks for the context. I still find it... an odd dodge from Speier to argue with the "text of the law" as opposed to "spirit of the law" on this one. As @Red(s)HawksFan says below:

When the Red Sox were the #1 payroll team in the league (2018-2019) they were spending at or above the top threshold.

2018 = ~$239M, $197M base threshold, two teams paid tax (Sox and Nationals)
2019 = ~$240M, $206M base threshold, three teams paid tax (Sox, Yankees, Cubs)

Those are their outlier years in all of the luxury tax era. Any other time they've gone over the threshold, it's been by a few million at most. I don't think it's a matter of trust or no trust so much as those years are marked by a GM/POBO who had no qualms about spending ownership's money until they told him to stop. The others (Theo, Cherington, Bloom) arguably saw the value in restraint in pursuit of longer term sustainability.
Call that whatever you want. I think the question is a valid one that Speier doesn't answer, beyond suggesting they'll spend like a… I don’t know… “upper middle class” franchise with a top 5-8 payroll (the Texas/Atlanta/Toronto tier)?
 

koufax32

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Dec 8, 2006
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Count me as out on Soto. He’s an amazing OBP machine and would probably rake at Fenway, but not at the money and years he’ll be getting from someone else.

I would love to do the following:
1. Sign Buehler to a 4-5 year deal (if necessary) with plenty of IP incentives. In a perfect world, BOS would be able to get him for 3 years plus a vesting option or two. I think the bidding goes higher than that though.
2. Trade from the Abreu, Mayer, etc group (non CATs) to land a Gilbert or Crochet type.
3. See if there’s a market for Yoshida. If so, unload as much of that salary as possible.
4. Extend a QO to O’Neill. Or if he’s willing to do a 2-3 year deal, that may be preferable.
5. Grab a couple of bullpen pieces.
6. Stsrt/continue testing the early extension waters with some of our homegrown players.

An offseason like this wouldn’t break the bank and would have me fired up for next year. Get it done, Theo!
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'm not saying any of this isn't true, but... are you saying you think that the Red Sox's Plan A was to sign Yamamoto for $250M and their Plan B was to sign Giolito for $38M?

Maybe they felt Yamamoto was the only one truly worth it but I'm skeptical that they were ever serious about spending that kind of money.



Let's be clear, I LOVE Speier.

But what's confusing to me about this answer is that this is both a straw man (who has ever demanded they win at *ANY!!!!* cost? There's no salary cap but I have yet to see anyone ever suggest they spent $400M a year) and inaccurate.

The Red Sox had the #1 payroll when they won in 2018, #3 in 2013, #2 in 2007, etc. Call that whatever you want ("winning at almost any cost," "paying to win," whatever), the idea of hand waving it away as "Well, the Red Sox were never willing to spent ANY amount to win" feels like answering a question that wasn't asked.
I don’t think the Mets spent to win this season. Almost half their payroll is being sent to other teams. They spent - on the 26-40 players on their ‘24 team- to just do what Bloom-era Sox did- compete/don’t look like you’re phoning it in/maybe good luck-good health and things work out. They spent to win it all in ‘23 and the ‘24 payroll was still stuck in that yesr.

smartly they were totally out of it and dealt their biggest assets (and budget busters) enough to not have to totally tank for years and to get something from those sales
 

nvalvo

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The bolded isn't really true at all, at least in terms of percentage of the cap. Working backwards, this is how far they've been over/under the threshold (all numbers from Cot's)...

2024 (12th in MLB) = 14M under = 94% of cap
2023 (12th in MLB) = 7M under = 96% of cap
2022 (5th in MLB) = 12M over = 105% of cap
2021 (6th in MLB) = 5M under = 97% of cap
2020 (8th in MLB) = 10M under = 95% of cap (extracting pro-rated salaries to full season numbers)
2019 (1st in MLB) = 36M over = 117% of cap
2018 (1st in MLB) = 36M over = 118% of cap
2017 (6th in MLB) = 12M under = 93% of cap

Prior to that, Cot's doesn't have the cap numbers readily available and I don't have the time to go searching for them, so I'll stop there.

They're not falling out of the top 5 because they've significantly changed their spending philosophy relative to the luxury tax threshold. They're out of the top 5 because other teams are spending more.
Using the Cots unofficial numbers, we have:

90945
 

dynomite

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It's interesting how different the numbers are.

Sportrac has the 2024 Sox at $213M in "total cap allocations" // $190M in "adjusted payroll total," and in 2023 had them at $206M // $182M.

I'm sure there are complicated reasons why it's different.
 

nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
12,928
I don’t think the Mets spent to win this season. Almost half their payroll is being sent to other teams. They spent - on the 26-40 players on their ‘24 team- to just do what Bloom-era Sox did- compete/don’t look like you’re phoning it in/maybe good luck-good health and things work out. They spent to win it all in ‘23 and the ‘24 payroll was still stuck in that yesr.

smartly they were totally out of it and dealt their biggest assets (and budget busters) enough to not have to totally tank for years and to get something from those sales
Don't the Mets have a lot of money coming off the books this winter?
 

Tokyo Sox

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Morosi has an article on MLB dot com about the Japanese & Korean guys that could make the move this offseason:

https://www.mlb.com/news/roki-sasaki-japan-korea-players-who-could-come-to-mlb

I have previously called Okamoto a AAAA guy and am not really keen on pursuing him.

Assuming we can't get Roki, I'd be very happy with Sugano for somewhere in the 2/30, or maybe 3/36 range. I think he's still got something left in the tank. With the caveat that offense was way down across the league this year, he put up a 1.67 ERA in 156.2 IP and had his best K & BB rates of the past couple years.

I don't know anything about any of the Korean guys.
 

chawson

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I wouldn’t sleep on the Giants in a Soto sweepstakes.
There was a report a couple years back that he preferred the East Coast that I'd remembered.

And then this from The Athletic this morning: "Soto — who is from the Dominican Republic — will downplay the importance of staying on the East Coast, though he has made it clear he didn't enjoy being farther from his family playing in San Diego."
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Don't the Mets have a lot of money coming off the books this winter?
Per Cot's, they were at ~$356M this year. They have them projected at $183M right now for 2025, which is roughly $57M under the first luxury tax threshold. So yeah, they've got money to burn this winter.
 

Cassvt2023

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Jan 17, 2023
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Count me as out on Soto. He’s an amazing OBP machine and would probably rake at Fenway, but not at the money and years he’ll be getting from someone else.

I would love to do the following:
1. Sign Buehler to a 4-5 year deal (if necessary) with plenty of IP incentives. In a perfect world, BOS would be able to get him for 3 years plus a vesting option or two. I think the bidding goes higher than that though.
2. Trade from the Abreu, Mayer, etc group (non CATs) to land a Gilbert or Crochet type.
3. See if there’s a market for Yoshida. If so, unload as much of that salary as possible.
4. Extend a QO to O’Neill. Or if he’s willing to do a 2-3 year deal, that may be preferable.
5. Grab a couple of bullpen pieces.
6. Stsrt/continue testing the early extension waters with some of our homegrown players.

An offseason like this wouldn’t break the bank and would have me fired up for next year. Get it done, Theo!
This is pretty much where I am as well. Soto is not coming here. Although a generational talent as an on base machine, I hate the idea of tying up that much money in one player.

i would, however rather sign Fried than Buehler. I hope Giolito’s recruiting skills are top notch.

I’m also extending the QO to O’Neill. If he accepts, there is your RH power, especially if you’re able to move Yoshida and have more of a rotating DH. If he declines, take the draft pick and go after Teoscar.
 

BaseballJones

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I'd try to sign Eovaldi. Yes, he'll be 35 soon. So I'd think a 2-year deal would work nicely with him. Still highly effective.

2024: 170.2 ip, 3.80 era, 1.11 whip, 8.8 k/9, and can totally get it done in the postseason, and he's proven he can pitch in Boston.

I don't think he'd be prohibitively expensive. Not cheap, but not too expensive, and not a long contract.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Nov 21, 2005
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Nick Martinez is next year's Seth Lugo. He'd fit perfectly as an occasional starter and bullpen piece, a role he has thrived in for the last three years (35 starts and 152 appearances). Plus, he has room to improve by getting out of Cincy, where he's had a 4.00 ERA and .769 OPS v. on the road, .218 ERA and .503 OPS. He's 34 and would hopefully sign a two year deal. Maybe 2 years, $35 million?

90968
 

BigSoxFan

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This is pretty much where I am as well. Soto is not coming here. Although a generational talent as an on base machine, I hate the idea of tying up that much money in one player.

i would, however rather sign Fried than Buehler. I hope Giolito’s recruiting skills are top notch.

I’m also extending the QO to O’Neill. If he accepts, there is your RH power, especially if you’re able to move Yoshida and have more of a rotating DH. If he declines, take the draft pick and go after Teoscar.
Yeah, like Yamamoto last year, I’ve settled on Fried as my guy. He’s a little older than I’d like but that’s tempered by the fact that he hasn’t even reached 900 IP yet. His rapport with Giolito could possibly get Lucas to come back on a fair deal, if 2025 goes well. Fried may not be a true ace but he’s close to one, if not there already, and looks likely to be a solid 1/2 for at least a few more years.

Add Fried and a healthy Giolito to Houck, Bello, and Crawford and you have the makings of a solid rotation with room for improvement.

And if you add Fried AND add a Seattle guy in trade, you have the potential of a really good rotation.

There is going to be a ton of competition for Fried but he’s a guy the Sox need to be heavily on.
 

Sox Pride

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I would love for the Red Sox to get Soto on several levels.
First, he's a fantastic player just entering the prime of his career.
Second, it would signal the Red Sox are committed on spending money to win.

Honestly, I doubt it will happen, because OF is not our greatest area of need and we will use our resources on pitching and possibly a right handed power bat. But I would be thrilled if we did.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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The bolded isn't really true at all, at least in terms of percentage of the cap. Working backwards, this is how far they've been over/under the threshold (all numbers from Cot's)...

Prior to that, Cot's doesn't have the cap numbers readily available and I don't have the time to go searching for them, so I'll stop there.

They're not falling out of the top 5 because they've significantly changed their spending philosophy relative to the luxury tax threshold. They're out of the top 5 because other teams are spending more.

It's interesting how different the numbers are.

Sportrac has the 2024 Sox at $213M in "total cap allocations" // $190M in "adjusted payroll total," and in 2023 had them at $206M // $182M.

I'm sure there are complicated reasons why it's different.
Edited down for the sake of responding, but I run into this issue a ton as well, @dynomite. I always like using those sites that show all teams so that it tries to give context as to spending, but is there a site that is known to be the "best" on the board, or is it kind of like a bWAR / fWAR situation where the methodologies are so different that anyone (self included) can basically find a statistic to prove their point.

Baseball Cube (which I always thought of as solid) has wildly different numbers from Spotrac (which I also like) and Cots (which @Red(s)HawksFan was using. I used baseball cube because it went back the furthest (that I could find) but it's methodology recently seems out of whack.

Just using 2023 as an example, Cots had the Sox at $226m (which is wildly different from), Spotrac which had them around $207m and BBCube had them at $167m.

I have personally come to like Spotrac more and more, but they don't go back beyond the past couple of years to show long term trend (thus using BBcube to go back to Theo).
 

Cassvt2023

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Jan 17, 2023
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Yeah, like Yamamoto last year, I’ve settled on Fried as my guy. He’s a little older than I’d like but that’s tempered by the fact that he hasn’t even reached 900 IP yet. His rapport with Giolito could possibly get Lucas to come back on a fair deal, if 2025 goes well. Fried may not be a true ace but he’s close to one, if not there already, and looks likely to be a solid 1/2 for at least a few more years.

Add Fried and a healthy Giolito to Houck, Bello, and Crawford and you have the makings of a solid rotation with room for improvement.

And if you add Fried AND add a Seattle guy in trade, you have the potential of a really good rotation.

There is going to be a ton of competition for Fried but he’s a guy the Sox need to be heavily on.
I think it is somewhat important that Giolito has a connection to Fried from Harvard Westlake HS. But maybe more importantly, they are both represented by CAA. As soon as the Yamamoto sweepstakes ended last winter, Giolito was one of the first to sign. Unlike the Boras clients, who didn't until ST. How'd that work out? I'd love to see Breslow pounce early.
 
Feb 9, 2024
28
Nick Martinez is next year's Seth Lugo. He'd fit perfectly as an occasional starter and bullpen piece, a role he has thrived in for the last three years (35 starts and 152 appearances). Plus, he has room to improve by getting out of Cincy, where he's had a 4.00 ERA and .769 OPS v. on the road, .218 ERA and .503 OPS. He's 34 and would hopefully sign a two year deal. Maybe 2 years, $35 million?

View attachment 90968
Would love to get Fried and Martinez. That would be a great haul for the pitching staff.
 

mikcou

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May 13, 2007
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Edited down for the sake of responding, but I run into this issue a ton as well, @dynomite. I always like using those sites that show all teams so that it tries to give context as to spending, but is there a site that is known to be the "best" on the board, or is it kind of like a bWAR / fWAR situation where the methodologies are so different that anyone (self included) can basically find a statistic to prove their point.

Baseball Cube (which I always thought of as solid) has wildly different numbers from Spotrac (which I also like) and Cots (which @Red(s)HawksFan was using. I used baseball cube because it went back the furthest (that I could find) but it's methodology recently seems out of whack.

Just using 2023 as an example, Cots had the Sox at $226m (which is wildly different from), Spotrac which had them around $207m and BBCube had them at $167m.

I have personally come to like Spotrac more and more, but they don't go back beyond the past couple of years to show long term trend (thus using BBcube to go back to Theo).
~170M looks roughly right for opening day cash payroll for the 26 man roster.
$206M seems about right for all in cash spend (including cash for Sale, 40 man guys, and mandatory benefits). This includes all 40 man compensation plus players cut. The total of column M on Cots is $184M so that is all cash paid to all 40 man guys who were on at any point in the season or who had guarantees and were cut prior to the season (e.g. Hosmer). You add in estimated player benefits and cash spend should be in the $201M or 202M range with the bonus pool to pre-arb players bringing it up to ~204M.
$223M is the CBT number per Cots as far as I can tell. This includes significant AAV over cash for players like Bello, Rafaela, and Whitlock as well as a $4M charge for Turner for cash paid in the 2023 season that was not accounted in the 2023 CBT number. There are some other rounding errors on guys like Devers and Story with really long term contracts that have slight cash differences year to year, but the big drivers here are really the deals they signed for Bello and Rafaela that still had very small cash amounts in 2024, but significant increases on the back end of their deals.

You can bridge this from Cots pretty easily starting at the left of their sheet about what opening day payroll is.

Another basic observation is that when we look to cash paid, the Red Sox really were right around the $200M mark all in for 2024 so for all of the hate about those reports that they had a $200M budget that is in fact right around what they spent.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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Edited down for the sake of responding, but I run into this issue a ton as well, @dynomite. I always like using those sites that show all teams so that it tries to give context as to spending, but is there a site that is known to be the "best" on the board, or is it kind of like a bWAR / fWAR situation where the methodologies are so different that anyone (self included) can basically find a statistic to prove their point.

Baseball Cube (which I always thought of as solid) has wildly different numbers from Spotrac (which I also like) and Cots (which @Red(s)HawksFan was using. I used baseball cube because it went back the furthest (that I could find) but it's methodology recently seems out of whack.

Just using 2023 as an example, Cots had the Sox at $226m (which is wildly different from), Spotrac which had them around $207m and BBCube had them at $167m.

I have personally come to like Spotrac more and more, but they don't go back beyond the past couple of years to show long term trend (thus using BBcube to go back to Theo).
I had a long post last offseason going through the numbers on 4 of these payroll tracking sites (Redsox payroll twitter account, Cot's, Fangraphs, Spotrac) and found Spotrac to be pretty poor at the finer points. The @redsoxpayroll twitter account was the most accurate and Cot's was pretty good too. I think the thing to verify with Cot's is whether they are including the pre-arb/non-guaranteed contracts in the bottom number.
 

dynomite

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I had a long post last offseason going through the numbers on 4 of these payroll tracking sites (Redsox payroll twitter account, Cot's, Fangraphs, Spotrac) and found Spotrac to be pretty poor at the finer points. The @redsoxpayroll twitter account was the most accurate and Cot's was pretty good too. I think the thing to verify with Cot's is whether they are including the pre-arb/non-guaranteed contracts in the bottom number.
Do you mind reposting? I'd be interested to read!
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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See below - hopefully this works

Preamble – apologies for the incredibly long post, but I think going through the fine details is the only way to do this. Maybe this should be its own thread, but it seemed to fit some of the discussion being had here.


There has been a lot of discussion lately around the remaining budget with various numbers for the current payroll being thrown around, so I thought this might be a good time to do a deep dive into tracking the payroll. This is something I have done personally for a while, typically using Cot’s as my main resource, but I have seen a lot of references to the Red Sox Payroll twitter account which I was unfamiliar with. I went through the payroll spreadsheets for four sources (Fangraphs, Spotrac, Cot’s, and RSP twitter) to look at where they were different and try to come up with the most accurate accounting.

TLDR version – The Red Sox Payroll twitter account is the best resource with both results and methodology considered. It may be slightly conservative on the incentives/bonuses, but only by a few million dollars at most and I would need to spend some time looking at specific incentive clauses in contracts to determine how likely they are to vest.

The four sites group the money into 7 categories, with Cot’s and RSP each having a unique extra category. The categories are: Guaranteed contracts, Arb players, Pre-arb players, Players no longer on team, Benefits/medical expenses, 40 man roster minor league players, Pre-arb bonus pool. Cot’s has a separate line item for IL time since an additional ML minimum player will be added even though the injured player is getting paid as well. RSP has a unique line item for incentives and bonuses that players may hit during the year.

Guaranteed Contracts
  • Devers – 10 year $313.5M with deferred money. Without knowing the exact details in the contract I don’t think this an AAV we can calculate on our own, but all 4 sites have it as an AAV between $29.0M and $29.15M. I will put this down at $29.1M
  • Story – 6 year $140M. There is some club option and player opt out language but nothing that really affects the AAV. All four sites agree at an AAV of $23.33M
  • Giolito – 2 year $38.5M with a player opt out after the first year. All four sites agree at an AAV of $19.25M
  • Yoshida – 5 year $90M. All four sites agree at an AAV of $18M
  • Jansen – 2 year $32M. All four sites agree at an AAV of $16M
  • Martin – 2 year $17.5M. This one is confusing since two of the sites have an AAV of $8.75M and 2 sites have it at $7.5M. The only unique thing I can find about his contract is a $4M signing bonus which I don’t think affects the AAV, so I am going with the straight math - $8.75M
  • Whitlock – 4 year $18.75M. All four sites agree at an AAV of $4.688M
  • Refsnyder – 1 year $1.85M with a club option and 150k buyout. The sites are split on whether this is an AAV of $1.85M or $2M, but I believe the buyout is counted as guaranteed money so I am going with $2M
  • Criswell – 1 year $1M. This was a major league contract but he has options remaining. Even if he spends the entire year in the minors I believe he still counts against the major league payroll. Spotrac, Cot’s and I think Fangraphs all count him while RSP lists Criswell and his contract but does not have a number included for him in the spreadsheet. This seems to just be a mistaken omission from RSP - $1M
Total AAV on guaranteed contracts – $122.1M
Fangraphs Total - $120.87M
Spotrac Total - $120.92M
Cot’s Total - $120.87M
RSP - $120.86M

Arb players
The team settled with all four arb eligible players yesterday.
  • Pivetta - $7.5M
  • O’Neill - $5.85M
  • McGuire - $1.5M
  • Schreiber - $1.175M
Total AAV on arb contracts - $16.0M

Pre-arb players
We can quibble over exactly who makes the team, but 12 guaranteed contracts (including arb eligible players, excluding Criswell) leaves 14 spots to be filled by pre-arb players. Major league minimum this year is $740k but there is typically some small bumps for players with more service time so I did a flat $0.75M per spot.

Total AAV for pre-arb players - $10.5M

There is a large variation in this number across the four sites, so I dug into each of their methodologies.

Fangraphs Total - $15.06M. Fangraphs has a footnote spelling out where this number comes from - “factoring in IL time, each time will need to pay for at least 33 player seasons over the course of the regular season. This number is calculated by subtracting the number of guaranteed and arbitration year contracts from 33 … and then multiplying the number that remains … by the league minimum salary.” See the discussion below on IL time for research into the 33 number.

Spotrac Total - $10.01M. Spotrac does not seem to account for IL time in their total.

Cot’s Total – $14.9M. Cot’s looks to be accounting for 13 pre-arb players as well as a unique line item for an additional 7 pre-arb players to cover IL time, each at $0.745M.

RSP - $7.94M. RSP only lists a number for 10 pre-arb players (which does not even fill the 26 man roster), but they have a much higher number ($12M) for the 40 man roster minor league salaries. The other 3 sites have the 40 man mL salaries as follows:
Fangraphs - $2.5M
Spotrac - $2.25M
Cot’s - $2.25M

In order to compare apples to apples, I combined the pre-arb salaries, 40 man minor league salaries, and IL time salaries into one number for all of the sites. This reduced the variance between sites significantly, with the totals below:
Fangraphs - $17.56M
Spotrac - $12.26M
Cot’s - $17.15M
RSP – $19.94M

Spotrac is the obviously deficient one here by both result and methodology. The other 3 all end up fairly close, with exactly how much IL time to account for being the difference. I attempted a little research into the 33 player seasons quoted by Fangraphs, but I was only able to find one source for total IL time by team. Ironically enough Spotrac has an IL tracker that you can sort to cumulative team stats and over the 2021-2023 period the average team had a combined 1528 days of IL time per season, or the equivalent of 9.43 player seasons. On top of the 26 man roster, that equates to a total of 35.43 player seasons required to finish the regular season, and that is just the average. I have no idea how MLB teams account for this variance, but at the very least I think we should cover the average.

(35.43 player seasons – 26 roster spots)*($0.74M) = $6.98M AAV for IL time

Added to the $10.5M for the pre-arb 26 man roster spots and $2.25M for minor league salaries results in:

Total AAV for Pre-arb, IL and mL salaries = $19.73M

Benefits
Fangraphs, Spotrac and Cot’s are all at $17M for this, RSP has it at $16.5M. I will use the higher number - $17M AAV

Pre-arb Bonus Pool
I believe this is mandated by the CBA and all four sites agree at an AAV of $1.67M

Players no longer on the team
  • Chris Sale – Spotrac, Cot’s, and RSP all agree that the AAV hit from the Sale trade is $17.0M. Fangraphs divides the money owed to Sale, Hosmer and Turner into odd groupings, but ultimately agrees that Sale counts as a $17.0M AAV for 2024. However, they also include $1.5M that they claim is from re-calculating the AAV after the trade. I do not believe this makes any sense since Atlanta now owns Sale’s contract, so any AAV recalculation would go on their books. In any case, that contract has since been torn up and replaced with a new contract so I do not believe it would still apply anyway. I am going to ignore the $1.5M, and go with an AAV of $17M
  • Eric Hosmer – The same three sites all agree that Hosmer counts as a $0.74M hit (major league minimum), while Fangraphs has Hosmer at an AAV of $15.375M with San Diego paying $12.885M of that ($2.49M left over on the Sox budget). I honestly cannot figure out how they get to the 15.375 number. The original deal was $144M over 8 years, for an AAV of 18. However it was frontloaded with the first five years at $21M and the last 3 years at $13M. Since Hosmer was traded during the current CBA, his AAV has to be recalculated based his remaining contract at the time of the trade. What I don’t know is whether the salary for the year in which his traded is included in that, only partially, or not at all. If you include the whole 2022 salary, then you get a 4 year contract for $60M ($15M AAV). If you include only the remaining full years, it is a 3 year contract for $39M ($13M AAV). If the 2022 remaining contract is prorated based on how many games were left in the season, it would fall somewhere in between those two numbers. But none of those matches the $15.375M AAV listed by Fangraphs. In any case, I have spent way to much time researching and discussing Eric Fucking Hosmer so I am going to say that Fangraphs is wrong here and the other three are right - $0.74M AAV
  • Justin Turner – Perhaps the most convoluted of the contracts to figure out, but I was saved by Speier. Fangraphs and RSP include an 2024 AAV hit of $4.15M for Turner do to the weirdness of his player option, but Spotrac and Cot’s do not include anything for him. Luckily I was able to dig up an old Globe article by Speier where he explicitly laid out that Turner would count as a $4.15M hit against the 2024 budget if he opted out. I trust Speier more than anyone to investigate stuff like this - $4.15M AAV

Total AAV for players no longer on team - $21.89M

Incentives and Bonuses
Red Sox Payroll twitter is the only one to include something for this – they list $5M to cover future bonuses and incentives that players may hit throughout the season. It does make sense to try to account for this, but I do not know how teams would approach this. I think it is overly conservative to consider that all incentives will be met, and without going through the incentives for each contract I have no idea if the $5M figure is the max amount or something less than that. I think I will calculate the total without anything here and this would need to be accounted for when considering how much headroom to leave under the limit.



Total 2024 AAV
The table below shows the totals for each of the four sources along with the total of my conclusions above.

View attachment 76492

Fangraphs actually comes out almost exactly the same as my numbers above, but their methodology around Hosmer and Sale is suspect. Spotrac leaves out money for Turner and to cover IL time and therefore comes out significantly lower than the others. Cot’s also leaves out Turner. RSP has everything nearly the same as me but does leave out Criswell and includes money for bonuses. I would say that I am pretty confident the Red Sox have somewhere between $35-40M left before they would hit the first threshold. I don’t know what there actual limit is going to be, but I hope they spend some of it, and soon.