Targets locked: who should Breslow bring to Boston this winter?

sean1562

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Is our problem against LHP a long term problem with the prospects we have on hand? Roman Anthony has no pronounced splits and Campbell is a RHB, as is Grissom. Kyle Teel is left handed but Wong is right handed, with a pretty big platoon split (.706 OPS v RHP, .877 OPS v LHP in 2024). Wong is defensively challenged at C but as a backup catcher who can play all over the infield is pretty good. Campbell had a .991 OPS against RHP and a .992 OPS against LHP in 2024. Anthony had a .895 OPS v RHP and a .904 OPS against LHP.

Lineup vs LHP if we just call up our prospects and let them play.

C: Wong RHB .877 OPS v LHP in 2024
1B: Casas LHB .758 OPS v LHP in 2024
2B: Grissom RHB or Campbell RHP .992 OPS v LHP in minors in 2024
SS: Story RHB with a career .963 OPS v LHP. All his numbers recently are bad for obvious reasons but doesn't seem to struggle historically with LHP
3B: Devers .686 OPS v LHP in 2024. Has a .739 OPS v LHP in his career over 661 games, doesn't seem like he is getting better against them
LF: O'Neill 1.180 OPS v LHP in 2024 or Refsnyder .941 OPS v LHP in 2024
CF: Duran LHB has pronounced splits .665 OPS v LHP in 2024
RF: Anthony LHB .904 OPS against LHP in minors
DH: The LF you didn't play on defense, or if O'Neill is out of the picture next season, maybe Devers and let Campbell start at 3B if he can handle it?

After typing all that out, we should give O'Neill a QO and just call up Campbell and Anthony. Triston's best minor league season was in 2022, with an .863 OPS in AAA over 72 games at age 22. Roman Anthony put up a .894 OPS over 119 games last year between AA and AAA at age 20 (.983 OPS in AAA with a .463 OBP in 35 games). Campbell had a .997 OPS through 115 games in the minors. Maybe start Campbell at AAA to see what Grissom can do but Anthony should be this team's opening day RF starter. Against RHP Abreu can play RF, Anthony can take a day off or DH, and Ceddanne can play CF with Duran over in LF. If Casas doesn't improve against LHP next year he needs to improve against RHP (career .846 OPS) to be a foundational piece on this team.
 

loneredseat

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I would be fine dedicating our resources to improving the pitching staff (in particular, the bullpen) and letting the kids play the field. Even without O'Neill.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Are players who don’t have substantial L/R splits still vulnerable against pitchers who do is a question I’ve always wondered about. Like, what splits matter more, the batters or pitchers? I would imagine that guys without huge splits would potentially still struggle against the toughest lefties (more than RHB would) but no idea if that’s actually true. I suspect that if the goal is to win a WS a team that’s extremely left handed may run into trouble against a staff with good LHP.
 

simplicio

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Is our problem against LHP a long term problem with the prospects we have on hand? Roman Anthony has no pronounced splits and Campbell is a RHB, as is Grissom. Kyle Teel is left handed but Wong is right handed, with a pretty big platoon split (.706 OPS v RHP, .877 OPS v LHP in 2024). Wong is defensively challenged at C but as a backup catcher who can play all over the infield is pretty good. Campbell had a .991 OPS against RHP and a .992 OPS against LHP in 2024. Anthony had a .895 OPS v RHP and a .904 OPS against LHP.

Lineup vs LHP if we just call up our prospects and let them play.

C: Wong RHB .877 OPS v LHP in 2024
1B: Casas LHB .758 OPS v LHP in 2024
2B: Grissom RHB or Campbell RHP .992 OPS v LHP in minors in 2024
SS: Story RHB with a career .963 OPS v LHP. All his numbers recently are bad for obvious reasons but doesn't seem to struggle historically with LHP
3B: Devers .686 OPS v LHP in 2024. Has a .739 OPS v LHP in his career over 661 games, doesn't seem like he is getting better against them
LF: O'Neill 1.180 OPS v LHP in 2024 or Refsnyder .941 OPS v LHP in 2024
CF: Duran LHB has pronounced splits .665 OPS v LHP in 2024
RF: Anthony LHB .904 OPS against LHP in minors
DH: The LF you didn't play on defense, or if O'Neill is out of the picture next season, maybe Devers and let Campbell start at 3B if he can handle it?

After typing all that out, we should give O'Neill a QO and just call up Campbell and Anthony. Triston's best minor league season was in 2022, with an .863 OPS in AAA over 72 games at age 22. Roman Anthony put up a .894 OPS over 119 games last year between AA and AAA at age 20 (.983 OPS in AAA with a .463 OBP in 35 games). Campbell had a .997 OPS through 115 games in the minors. Maybe start Campbell at AAA to see what Grissom can do but Anthony should be this team's opening day RF starter. Against RHP Abreu can play RF, Anthony can take a day off or DH, and Ceddanne can play CF with Duran over in LF. If Casas doesn't improve against LHP next year he needs to improve against RHP (career .846 OPS) to be a foundational piece on this team.
You missed Romy (.879 vs LHP).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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They just need to sign Max Fried. It seems so unbelievably obvious. The time to spend is NOW, when you have so much of your roster consisting of legit pre arb players.
Sure. But what do you do if Fried wants to go back to Atlanta or to the west coast or something other than come to Boston? Even if they are willing to throw the most money at a guy, there's always a chance that isn't enough. In which case, you gotta have alternative plans and some such plans might include trading someone we don't want to trade in order to get that "stud" pitcher.
 

dynomite

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I would be fine dedicating our resources to improving the pitching staff (in particular, the bullpen) and letting the kids play the field. Even without O'Neill.
My wish list isn't too dissimilar:

1) Sign 1 of Burnes/Fried/Snell

2) Sign another veteran SP (Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, etc.) for SP5/swingman role (to compete with Crawford)

3) Move Whitlock to pen where he belongs

4) Target 2+ free agent RPs (Treinen, Sewald, Minter) and scour the market for additional guys to test out in spring training (AKA Slaten)

5) Give TON the QO and see what happens, offer him a bit more to stay.

Do that and I'm basically fine heading into next year and hoping for health from Story and/or Casas, with a rotation of Fried/Houck/Giolito/Bello/SP5.

I'll hope for more, of course, but that team on paper is good enough to make the playoffs.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What is the terrible Rosenthal article in question?
I assume it's this one (paywalled in The Athletic) which is Rosenthal declaring that the thing the Sox need to do is trade Casas for pitching while signing Alex Bregman or Willy Adames to play 3B and moving Devers to 1B. A handful of folks here have latched on to that idea and posted it at various times.
 

chrisfont9

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My wish list isn't too dissimilar:

1) Sign 1 of Burnes/Fried/Snell

2) Sign another veteran SP (Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, etc.) for SP5/swingman role (to compete with Crawford)

3) Move Whitlock to pen where he belongs

4) Target 2+ free agent RPs (Treinen, Sewald, Minter) and scour the market for additional guys to test out in spring training (AKA Slaten)

5) Give TON the QO and see what happens, offer him a bit more to stay.

Do that and I'm basically fine heading into next year and hoping for health from Story and/or Casas, with a rotation of Fried/Houck/Giolito/Bello/SP5.

I'll hope for more, of course, but that team on paper is good enough to make the playoffs.
1) Sign 1 of Burnes/Fried/Snell
2) Sign another veteran SP (Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, etc.) for SP5/swingman role (to compete with Crawford) NICK MARTINEZ!
 

Fishy1

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My wish list isn't too dissimilar:

1) Sign 1 of Burnes/Fried/Snell

2) Sign another veteran SP (Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, etc.) for SP5/swingman role (to compete with Crawford)

3) Move Whitlock to pen where he belongs

4) Target 2+ free agent RPs (Treinen, Sewald, Minter) and scour the market for additional guys to test out in spring training (AKA Slaten)

5) Give TON the QO and see what happens, offer him a bit more to stay.

Do that and I'm basically fine heading into next year and hoping for health from Story and/or Casas, with a rotation of Fried/Houck/Giolito/Bello/SP5.

I'll hope for more, of course, but that team on paper is good enough to make the playoffs.
Regardless of what people's wishlists might be, I think this FO is far more likely to scour the arbitration market for guys like Crochet/Civale/Skubal who their relatively small-market teams would like to move for prospects than it is to try to snap up pitchers in their 30's whose arms could fall off. Same goes for relievers. The Nationals have a closer to move on from, for example.

I agree that moving Whitlock to the pen and scouring the market for additional guys like Booser/Slaten is going to happen.
 

Skyhawk96

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Regardless of what people's wishlists might be, I think this FO is far more likely to scour the arbitration market for guys like Crochet/Civale/Skubal who their relatively small-market teams would like to move for prospects than it is to try to snap up pitchers in their 30's whose arms could fall off. Same goes for relievers. The Nationals have a closer to move on from, for example.

I agree that moving Whitlock to the pen and scouring the market for additional guys like Booser/Slaten is going to happen.
I don't see Detroit moving Skubal (unless you are just using him as an example). They just made the playoffs and they have one LT contract on the books currently. Their prospect pipeline is mostly positional players at the top.

I like the idea of going after Crochet though, but my first option would be Fried through free agency.
 

dynomite

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It all depends on the return. If the return is a young cost controlled top of the rotation starter, pack his bags.
I agree with this. If it's Logan Gilbert coming back, I'm happy to make that trade.

Regardless of what people's wishlists might be, I think this FO is far more likely to scour the arbitration market for guys like Crochet/Civale/Skubal who their relatively small-market teams would like to move for prospects than it is to try to snap up pitchers in their 30's whose arms could fall off. Same goes for relievers. The Nationals have a closer to move on from, for example.

I agree that moving Whitlock to the pen and scouring the market for additional guys like Booser/Slaten is going to happen.
First of all, Skubal one of the most untouchable assets in MLB right now. I'm not even sure what a reasonable deal for him would look like after this season.

Second, while watching the Dodgers and the Yankees in the World Series I hope that hammered home to the FO that scouring the arbitration market for guys like Aaron Civale is not what's standing in between the Red Sox and another championship.

And if there's one lesson to be learned from this year, it's that any pitcher's arm could fall off at any moment, even the mythical "cost controlled young guys" (look at Spencer Strider, Shane McClanahan, Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, etc. etc. etc.). That's life. But Fried/Burnes are available to the highest bidder and don't require dealing away our new prospect core -- that seems like a safer investment to me.

But as @Skyhawk96 notes above, I'm also interested in Crochet -- so then you tell me, are you willing to part with at least one of the ATM core prospects for him? Which one?
 

pdub

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My wish list isn't too dissimilar:
1) Sign 1 of Burnes/Fried/Snell
I'd be happy with either Burnes or Fried. I'd lean towards Fried as I feel like his deal will be a bit more reasonable than Burnes' deal. Snell has the ace talent but he also can't pitch deep into games sometimes, so I'd pass on him.

EDIT: Just a general response to the above discussion: I think Skubal is untouchable. He's young, excellent, and Detroit just came off making the playoffs. I think they may be buyers rather than sellers.
 

Fishy1

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I agree with this. If it's Logan Gilbert coming back, I'm happy to make that trade.



First of all, Skubal one of the most untouchable assets in MLB right now. I'm not even sure what a reasonable deal for him would look like after this season.

Second, while watching the Dodgers and the Yankees in the World Series I hope that hammered home to the FO that scouring the arbitration market for guys like Aaron Civale is not what's standing in between the Red Sox and another championship.

And if there's one lesson to be learned from this year, it's that any pitcher's arm could fall off at any moment, even the mythical "cost controlled young guys" (look at Spencer Strider, Shane McClanahan, Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, etc. etc. etc.). That's life. But Fried/Burnes are available to the highest bidder and don't require dealing away our new prospect core -- that seems like a safer investment to me.

But as @Skyhawk96 notes above, I'm also interested in Crochet -- so then you tell me, are you willing to part with at least one of the ATM core prospects for him? Which one?
I'm not aware of Detroit announcing him as untouchable. They're near the bottom in terms of payroll in all of baseball--you can read that both ways, that they'll have room for Skubal, or that they'll pawn him off for elite prospects, as Skubal is going to get really, really expensive. They may extend him, they may not. Guys who might appear to be "untouchable" get traded all the time as they approach being really really expensive. See Chris Sale, see Juan Soto, see any number of these guys. They've got a really young, really talented pitching staff with more up and coming pitching and an abysmal starting lineup. I don't know what it would take either but the Sox would be remiss not to explore it. You may be right that they have no interest in moving him.

And I agree that pitchers can break down at any time, but past thirty, age-related decline is a much bigger problem than injuries. A lot of guys could keep pitching until they're 40, the problem is many, even most, are not effective in their 30's. There's all kinds of exceptions to this rule, I know, and I would love to have Fried too. But the problem is the risk associated with the size of the investment. A contract to a pitcher or position player in their 30's is far more likely to hamstring the franchise than a trade/extension for a guy in their mid to late 20's.

I think based on their experience with David Price and Chris Sale the FO is going to be really wary. Again, I'd love to have Fried, I just don't think it's likely with this FO>
 

GB5

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Fried and Burnes are going to be Tier 1 free agents. What in our recent free agency history suggests we are going to win a negotiating battle at the top of the market?
 

chrisfont9

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Skubal has 2 years left, and will probably be their #1 attraction next year. No way do they deal him now. If they get the sense he's going to FA, they can get the same price in trade for him next winter-- even though it's one less year for the buyer, at his performance level you just gotta pay the price and hope to sign him. Absolutely someone will bite then. In the meantime, you can spend this year winning, drawing big crowds for his starts, and seeing if there is room for an extension.
 

BigSoxFan

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Fried and Burnes are going to be Tier 1 free agents. What in our recent free agency history suggests we are going to win a negotiating battle at the top of the market?
Not sure that’s fair. Henry allowed the Sox to offer upwards of 300 million yen to Yamamoto.
 

dynomite

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I'm not aware of Detroit announcing him as untouchable. They're near the bottom in terms of payroll in all of baseball--you can read that both ways, that they'll have room for Skubal, or that they'll pawn him off for elite prospects, as Skubal is going to get really, really expensive.
Skubal has 2 years left, and will probably be their #1 attraction next year. No way do they deal him now. If they get the sense he's going to FA, they can get the same price in trade for him next winter-- even though it's one less year for the buyer, at his performance level you just gotta pay the price and hope to sign him. Absolutely someone will bite then. In the meantime, you can spend this year winning, drawing big crowds for his starts, and seeing if there is room for an extension.
Precisely. I don't think Detroit has to announce him as untouchable -- Skubal just became the first AL pitcher since Pedro to win the pitching Triple Crown I believe. Not to mention the Tigers have one of the best farm systems in MLB already when Jobe and other prospects arriving in 2025 and they're just entering the contention window.

By the way, I'm not even sure the Tigers will trade Skubal instead of extending him (or at least trying to). When it comes to payroll, the Tigers right now are at $41M, close to the bottom in MLB, but in recent history that's the aberration, not the norm: in '22 and '23 they were at $120/130M (~18th in MLB), and as recently as '16 & '17 it was ~$200M (4th in MLB). The Tigers aren't the Rays, history says they're going to spend money if they think they can win a World Series.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Not quite on point to the thread topic, but I read Ian Browne's suggestion on mlb.com that the Sox trade Casas, move Devers to 1B and sign Bregman to play 3B.

I cannot say strongly enough how much I hate this idea. Casas could be the next Freddy Freeman, and is fun to root for to boot. Bregman is past his peak, and will cost a lot more money (and is not a guy I would enjoy rooting for). I get that the thinking her is to trade for pitching, improve the IF defense (which it would at third, but maybe not at first) and to get a RH power bat, but this is not the way to do it. I'd bet my house that Casas out-OPSes Bregman over the next five years, or however long a contract you'd need to give to sign Bregman. Devers' defense at 3B is tolerable with better defense at SS than they got for most of last year.

I agree with Bill James that trading Casas would be a big mistake. If you're trying to trade for SP. trade from the OF surplus instead (Abreu or even Duran) before you trade Casas.
1. Sign Fried (1B - Burnes; 1C - Flaherty, 1D - Buehler)
2. Trade Abreu + for young, cost-controlled SP (could include basically anyone outside the top 4 prospects, as necessary)
3. Sign Tanner Scott
4. QO to O'Neill (maybe to Pivetta as well, although if he takes it I'd probably use him out of the pen if they are successful at 1 and 2).

I posted these in other threads, but they fit better here. I'd much rather sign a top FA pitcher than trade Casas for one. I'd rather trade Abreu plus whatever for a slightly less SP (a #2) - I kinda doubt that a "#1" is available who would make it worth trading Casas.
 

nvalvo

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It all depends on the return. If the return is a young cost controlled top of the rotation starter, pack his bags.
Yes, but is there any indication he has anywhere close to that trade value? He’s a so-so defender at 1B who lost time due to a mysterious rib ailment with an uncertain long-term prognosis. He’s a good hitter with a lot of remaining control, but he isn’t anchoring a deal for an ace.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Yes, but is there any indication he has anywhere close to that trade value? He’s a so-so defender at 1B who lost time due to a mysterious rib ailment with an uncertain long-term prognosis. He’s a good hitter with a lot of remaining control, but he isn’t anchoring a deal for an ace.
I'm very bullish on Casas being a dominant middle of the order bat for a decade still, but right now his value is probably at it's lowest. The best usage of him is 100% to start him all season at 1B. If he's kicking ass, you try to extend him. If he's just middling- or even "just good for a 1B" (.800 OPS, 20HR, decent defense) then you look to trading him for what you can get and think about signing Vlad after '25. Or if the Jays are likely cellar dwellers, you have more leverage where a trade for Vladdy at the deadline and an attempt to extend him prior to FA is an option. His trade value would be lower and you'd have more data on Anthony, Campbell, etc....
 

chrisfont9

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Precisely. I don't think Detroit has to announce him as untouchable -- Skubal just became the first AL pitcher since Pedro to win the pitching Triple Crown I believe. Not to mention the Tigers have one of the best farm systems in MLB already when Jobe and other prospects arriving in 2025 and they're just entering the contention window.

By the way, I'm not even sure the Tigers will trade Skubal instead of extending him (or at least trying to). When it comes to payroll, the Tigers right now are at $41M, close to the bottom in MLB, but in recent history that's the aberration, not the norm: in '22 and '23 they were at $120/130M (~18th in MLB), and as recently as '16 & '17 it was ~$200M (4th in MLB). The Tigers aren't the Rays, history says they're going to spend money if they think they can win a World Series.
Detroit is apparently on the rise, to hear some people tell it, as a city. The team is still held hostage to the whims of ownership, but it's still the Ilitch family, who have the money and the connection to the city. I guess I should reserve judgment and maybe head over to Sons of Chet Lemon for some insight. But they could definitely be heading into a nice open window.
 

chrisfont9

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Yes, but is there any indication he has anywhere close to that trade value? He’s a so-so defender at 1B who lost time due to a mysterious rib ailment with an uncertain long-term prognosis. He’s a good hitter with a lot of remaining control, but he isn’t anchoring a deal for an ace.
Yeah, I wonder if the view outside Boston of our trade chips is significantly different than inside. Other teams have pro scouts so they know Casas' potential, and Abreu's too, but they have to sell big deals to the owner and the fans. That's why -- maybe -- Duran is the only realistic position player chip we have to swing a big deal. The numbers match the eye test and the pedigree, whereas the younger guys are still a bit too theoretical to be the centerpiece. Even Anthony has more cachet as "the #1 prospect in mlb".
 

Fishy1

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Precisely. I don't think Detroit has to announce him as untouchable -- Skubal just became the first AL pitcher since Pedro to win the pitching Triple Crown I believe. Not to mention the Tigers have one of the best farm systems in MLB already when Jobe and other prospects arriving in 2025 and they're just entering the contention window.

By the way, I'm not even sure the Tigers will trade Skubal instead of extending him (or at least trying to). When it comes to payroll, the Tigers right now are at $41M, close to the bottom in MLB, but in recent history that's the aberration, not the norm: in '22 and '23 they were at $120/130M (~18th in MLB), and as recently as '16 & '17 it was ~$200M (4th in MLB). The Tigers aren't the Rays, history says they're going to spend money if they think they can win a World Series.
This is a compelling case, you've convinced me! :) I still think they might trade Skubal--we saw Milwaukee do that with Burnes and still manage to be quite competitive this year--but I agree it won't happen until next year (or at this year's deadline if they somehow collapse).

I'm guessing you used the Spotract for those 2025 payroll numbers--I made the same mistake, that's confirmed payroll. It doesn't include projected arbitration/rookie contracts. So I'd guess the final numbers is more like 100 million on the books right now, which is, you're right, still enough for them to go for it.

I still do think the Sox most likely maneuver is to go after a arb guy, rather than spend an outrageous amount of money on Fried or Burnes, even if I'd like to see them do that. Crochet is almost certainly getting moved, I think, like Cease was.
 

Fishy1

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Yeah, I wonder if the view outside Boston of our trade chips is significantly different than inside. Other teams have pro scouts so they know Casas' potential, and Abreu's too, but they have to sell big deals to the owner and the fans. That's why -- maybe -- Duran is the only realistic position player chip we have to swing a big deal. The numbers match the eye test and the pedigree, whereas the younger guys are still a bit too theoretical to be the centerpiece. Even Anthony has more cachet as "the #1 prospect in mlb".
I think Abreu and Duran have plenty of cachet. Abreu is a GG candidate and a rookie of the year candidate. Campbell won a bunch of awards this year, as did Teel. Mayer is maybe looking a little bit more like damaged goods and might be a tough sell right now.

But yeah, Grissom, Casas, Wong? They're not going to fetch us the guy people are hoping for. They might get us something nice, but not an ace.

I think the most likely trade target is still Crochet. I personally think Chicago is going to be looking for as much control as possible. Do we think Mayer+Fitts+Monegro would get us Crochet? Or would we have to include Abreu? My instinct is it would take more than what I'm proposing, probably substantially more.

IMO Crochet isn't going to net the White Sox the same sort of haul Sale did, or even that Cease did, since Crochet really only has one great year under his belt.
 

PedroisGod

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I think Abreu and Duran have plenty of cachet. Abreu is a GG candidate and a rookie of the year candidate. Campbell won a bunch of awards this year, as did Teel. Mayer is maybe looking a little bit more like damaged goods and might be a tough sell right now.

But yeah, Grissom, Casas, Wong? They're not going to fetch us the guy people are hoping for. They might get us something nice, but not an ace.

I think the most likely trade target is still Crochet. I personally think Chicago is going to be looking for as much control as possible. Do we think Mayer+Fitts+Monegro would get us Crochet? Or would we have to include Abreu?

IMO Crochet isn't going to net the White Sox the same sort of haul Sale did, or even that Cease did, since Crochet really only has one great year under his belt.
I think we go after Crochet as well and I think the White Sox would prefer to not have Abreu. They're not going to compete this year and by the time they start to compete he'd be approaching arbitration or in the middle of arbitration.
 

RedOctober3829

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Yes, but is there any indication he has anywhere close to that trade value? He’s a so-so defender at 1B who lost time due to a mysterious rib ailment with an uncertain long-term prognosis. He’s a good hitter with a lot of remaining control, but he isn’t anchoring a deal for an ace.
He would likely have to be part of a package. He alone will not be headlining a deal for a pitcher of the caliber we need. There are questions about his durability and his defense, but the potential is high for him to be a good hitter for a long time if you want to take a chance on him staying healthy for a full season.
 

chawson

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Sure. But what do you do if Fried wants to go back to Atlanta or to the west coast or something other than come to Boston? Even if they are willing to throw the most money at a guy, there's always a chance that isn't enough. In which case, you gotta have alternative plans and some such plans might include trading someone we don't want to trade in order to get that "stud" pitcher.
One never knows, but the interesting thing about this scenario is that Atlanta has extended so many of their players besides Fried. I think he's far less likely to re-up with them than, say, Nola with the Phillies.

Eyeballing it, it may be a good winter to shop for a starter. The Dodgers' rotation is shredded right now, but in 2025 it should be Glasnow, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Kershaw, Miller, May, Stone, Gonsolin, and Wrobleski, with Sheehan returning midseason. I don't see them spending a ton. Assuming Cole stays, the Yankees have him along with Rodón, Stroman, Gil, Schmidt, Cortes, and Warren. The Mets will probably spend, but the Phillies and Rangers both have full and expensive rotations, so possibly not.
 

moondog80

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Casas, with 4 years of control remaining, is absolutely worthy of anchoring a deal for an ace. I mean, tell me what piece the White Sox got for Dylan Cease, is more valuable than Casas (or any of the big 4)?

Unless you are talking about Paul Skenes, Casas gets you pretty far in the discussion. Or, can get you pieces that get you pretty far with a team that doesn't think it can contend while Casas is still cheap.

Crochet has 2 years of control remaining, FYI.
 
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dynomite

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I think we go after Crochet as well and I think the White Sox would prefer to not have Abreu. They're not going to compete this year and by the time they start to compete he'd be approaching arbitration or in the middle of arbitration.
Given that he's top trade asset for the White Sox right now (right?) and their dire situation, I imagine their asks will begin 2 of the other team's top.. 5 prospects? Plus other pieces that they can flip.

This is a compelling case, you've convinced me! :) I still think they might trade Skubal--we saw Milwaukee do that with Burnes and still manage to be quite competitive this year--but I agree it won't happen until next year (or at this year's deadline if they somehow collapse).

I'm guessing you used the Spotract for those 2025 payroll numbers--I made the same mistake, that's confirmed payroll. It doesn't include projected arbitration/rookie contracts. So I'd guess the final numbers is more like 100 million on the books right now, which is, you're right, still enough for them to go for it.

I still do think the Sox most likely maneuver is to go after a arb guy, rather than spend an outrageous amount of money on Fried or Burnes, even if I'd like to see them do that. Crochet is almost certainly getting moved, I think, like Cease was.
Oh interesting, I think you're right. Their projected total for 2025 right now counting arbitration is $80M (they're assuming $11.5M for Skubal). As you say, plenty of room for them to make moves.
 

moondog80

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Given that he's top trade asset for the White Sox right now (right?) and their dire situation, I imagine their asks will begin 2 of the other team's top.. 5 prospects? Plus other pieces that they can flip.
In the Dylan Cease trade that I mentioned above, the White Sox got 3 of the Padres' top 10 prospects, but none of the top 5.
 
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PedroisGod

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In the Dylan Cease trade that I mentioned above, the White Sox got 3 of the Padres' top 10 prospects, but none of the top 5.

Crochet has one fewer year of control than Cease did and is far less proven.
I also think that we might be able to get Crochet and it won't cost as much as we think, but Crochet has the same number of years of control as Cease did at the time of his trade to SD.
 

nvalvo

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One never knows, but the interesting thing about this scenario is that Atlanta has extended so many of their players besides Fried. I think he's far less likely to re-up with them than, say, Nola with the Phillies.

Eyeballing it, it may be a good winter to shop for a starter. The Dodgers' rotation is shredded right now, but in 2025 it should be Glasnow, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Kershaw, Miller, May, Stone, Gonsolin, and Wrobleski, with Sheehan returning midseason. I don't see them spending a ton. Assuming Cole stays, the Yankees have him along with Rodón, Stroman, Gil, Schmidt, Cortes, and Warren. The Mets will probably spend, but the Phillies and Rangers both have full and expensive rotations, so possibly not.
It's probably not where the Giants, Cubs, or Mariners would invest, either.

In the Dylan Cease trade that I mentioned above, the White Sox got 3 of the Padres' top 10 prospects, but none of the top 5.
Yes, and two of those, Thorpe and Iriarte, are probably going to be pretty good starting pitchers. Iriarte has been pitching (well) out of the pen so far in the majors. Thorpe was returning from an injury, was tremendous in the minors for the White Sox, but then had a rough 44 IP debut followed by surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. He should be ready to go in Spring as I understand it.

Sounds like the consensus is that Casas has more trade value than I see. I think the medicals are a bigger deal here than people are considering. If he hurt himself swinging hard, and his whole raison d'etre is swinging hard, if I were a GM I might want to see a bit more healthy post-injury track record from him before I sent a tremendously valuable trade chip back for him.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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In the Dylan Cease trade that I mentioned above, the White Sox got 3 of the Padres' top 10 prospects, but none of the top 5.

Crochet has one fewer year of control than Cease did and is far less proven.
And only one of those guys was a top 100 prospect at the time of the trade (Drew Thorpe, who was at #85).

A similar offer for Crochet from the Sox right now would be somewhere between Braden Montgomery (#54) and Franklin Arias (#95) as the headliner. What the Red Sox don't have is the pitching prospects that SD had, but who knows if the White Sox are looking for more pitching after getting Thorpe and Iriarte in the Cease deal. They need so much, I'm not sure they should be focusing solely on top pitching prospects in return, esp. with 4 of their current top 6 prospects being pitchers (and that doesn't include Thorpe now that he's in the majors).
 

moondog80

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And only one of those guys was a top 100 prospect at the time of the trade (Drew Thorpe, who was at #85).

A similar offer for Crochet from the Sox right now would be somewhere between Braden Montgomery (#54) and Franklin Arias (#95) as the headliner. What the Red Sox don't have is the pitching prospects that SD had, but who knows if the White Sox are looking for more pitching after getting Thorpe and Iriarte in the Cease deal. They need so much, I'm not sure they should be focusing solely on top pitching prospects in return, esp. with 4 of their current top 6 prospects being pitchers (and that doesn't include Thorpe now that he's in the majors).
I'll also point out that while Crochet had a very good year with peripherals that outperformed his ERA+ of 115, that brings his total of such years to one. And he dropped off quite a bit in the second half, leading to questions about his durability.

I'd be OK with a Cease-esque package. But not much more. This isn't 1997 Pedro, or even 2005 Beckett.
 

RedOctober3829

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Casas, with 4 years of control remaining, is absolutely worthy of anchoring a deal for an ace. I mean, tell me what piece the White Sox got for Dylan Cease, (who had 3 of control remaining) is more valuable than Casas (or any of the big 4)?

Unless you are talking about Paul Skenes, Casas gets you pretty far in the discussion. Or, can get you pieces that get you pretty far with a team that doesn't think it can contend while Casas is still cheap.

Crochet has 2 years of control remaining, FYI.
He has durability and defensive issues that should give teams pause before trading for him. He's young enough where there's still time to prove that you can stay on the field, but that time is quickly running out. No one cares how good a player is if he can't stay on the field.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I would not trade Casas for Crochet - his track record as a top-flight SP is not long enough. You could maybe say the same for Casas, but I have more confidence that he will approach his ceiling and sustain that level than I do Crochet. I would. however, do a deal centered around Abreu and a couple of other pieces outside the top 4. I'd even consider Abreu + Crawford if we could either sign a top FA (Fried, Burnes on the top tier, or Flaherty or Buehler) if we landed Crochet.

Given our OF surplus (especially Anthony) I value Casas higher than Abreu. Abreu obviously brings a lot of value with his OF defense, which offsets (but maybe not completely) Casas' advantage at the plate, but power-hitting first baseman don't really grow on trees. And I don't see trying to move Devers to first and finding someone else to play third really improves matters, unless they really think that's where they want to put Campbell (or Grissom, with Campbell at 2B).
 

Fishy1

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I would not trade Casas for Crochet - his track record as a top-flight SP is not long enough. You could maybe say the same for Casas, but I have more confidence that he will approach his ceiling and sustain that level than I do Crochet. I would. however, do a deal centered around Abreu and a couple of other pieces outside the top 4. I'd even consider Abreu + Crawford if we could either sign a top FA (Fried, Burnes on the top tier, or Flaherty or Buehler) if we landed Crochet.

Given our OF surplus (especially Anthony) I value Casas higher than Abreu. Abreu obviously brings a lot of value with his OF defense, which offsets (but maybe not completely) Casas' advantage at the plate, but power-hitting first baseman don't really grow on trees. And I don't see trying to move Devers to first and finding someone else to play third really improves matters, unless they really think that's where they want to put Campbell (or Grissom, with Campbell at 2B).
There's no way we send Abreu over. We don't have to. We might not even have to send over one of the top four. Take a look at the history of these deals. Look at what the White Sox got for Dylan Cease, who had a much longer track record of success than Crochet.

Crochet has had exactly one good season, and in that season he didn't even break 150 innings.

It is odd to me that whenever we have these discussions, a majority of people seem to assume we're going to have to ship out one of our best young players, whether it be Duran or Abreu or Casas, when the history of these deals suggest that usually players nearing the end of arbitration get traded for prospects, and often not even super good ones. Again, Chris Sale, one of the best pitchers alive at the time he was traded, with half a dozen years of some of the best pitching baseball had ever seen, got traded for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, and two other guys who never amounted to anything.

Juan Soto, one of the very best hitters in all of baseball, got SD Michael King, Drew Thorpe, a 34 year old catcher, and a couple of lottery tickets. Why would Crochet cost a rookie of the year candidate?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He has durability and defensive issues that should give teams pause before trading for him. He's young enough where there's still time to prove that you can stay on the field, but that time is quickly running out. No one cares how good a player is if he can't stay on the field.
Durability issues? Because of one injury? Give me a break. I'd rather not see him traded but I think teams would be lining up to get him if the Sox were to make him available.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Sure, if we can get Crochet for less than Abreu (or any of the top four prospects), then that's great - I was primarily responding to the suggestion that we trade Casas for Crochet. Actually, I'd like to shoot higher than Crochet, which might cost us someone like Abreu, but its not clear that any top SP who's better than Crochet is really available by trade (like Skrubal or the Seattle guys).
 

RedOctober3829

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Durability issues? Because of one injury? Give me a break. I'd rather not see him traded but I think teams would be lining up to get him if the Sox were to make him available.
Look at his track record going back into the minor leagues. This past year, he had the rib injury. In 2023, he had shoulder inflammation that shut his season down a few weeks early. In 2022, he missed over two months with a high ankle sprain then they put him in winter ball and they had to shut him down due to knee soreness. In terms of games played, he only played in 86 games in 2021, 103 games in 2022 between the minors and majors, and a career high 132 games in 2023.

In terms of making him available, they're going to have to give up a big piece to get a starting pitcher if they either strike out in free agency or choose not to go the FA route altogether. If a team wanted a major league piece included in a trade, the two most coveted names would be Jarren Duran and Triston Casas. I'm much more inclined to give up Casas in this situation that I would be Jarren Duran. Duran has proven he can be a star in the big leagues whereas Casas has not.
 

chawson

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I'm generally game for creative offseason plans, but this particular chatter seems predicated on the idea that Devers needs moving off third base, which I disagree with. It's just not that big a deal.

That and a kind of weird frustration about Casas's apparent inability to save our season after returning from a major injury, a 150 PA stretch where he put up only a 112 wRC+.
 

RedOctober3829

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I'm generally game for creative offseason plans, but this particular chatter seems predicated on the idea that Devers needs moving off third base, which I disagree with. It's just not that big a deal.

That and a kind of weird frustration about Casas's apparent inability to save our season after returning from a major injury, a 150 PA stretch where he put up only a 112 wRC+.
I don't think it involves Devers moving across the diamond although down the road that could be the case. That idea put forth by Ken Rosenthal didn't just come to him in the middle of the night. The Casas chatter comes from a place where he is going to have the most value among the team's major league young pieces.
 

RedOctober3829

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Alex Speier did a Reddit chat today. Some notable quotes from Alex.

"Last offseason, they hoped to make a big push for Yamamoto, but my understanding is the bidding vastly exceeded their expectations and they weren't particularly close."

"Largest contract the Sox hand out this offseason.... Whew. Lotta variables. But the team's urgency is such that I'd expect there to be a $100M+ deal this winter."

"There has not been a declaration that I'm aware of that the team will pass on giving O'Neill a qualifying offer.... but, it's also fair to wonder if the team will want to spend $20M to retain O'Neill for another year (I'd guess he'd accept the QO) or if there's a belief that another righthanded power hitter (or two) could be acquired for a lesser commitment."

"I wouldn't think "bargain bin" would be adequate, especially if O'Neill walks. But I do question whether they'll chase, for instance, Teoscar Hernandez given that the Dodgers will likely drop a qualifying offer on him.

In short: I expect the Sox to be in the market for impact righthanded bats, but it's too early to know whether that might be via trade or free agency."