Targets locked: who should Breslow bring to Boston this winter?

HangingW/ScottCooper

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There are two avenues to acquiring high-end starting pitching: FA and trade. Your post expressed concern about the back end of a free agent contract for a starting pitcher. I responded with an analogy from recent Red Sox history.

Would it be better to sign a FA starting pitcher to an expensive deal now (David Price in the historical analogy) in the risk that it could well put us in a tough spot financially a few years down the line, just the sort of circumstance that five years ago caused ownership to decide to trade Betts after 2019? Or should we instead staff our rotation by trading from among our high-end group of prospects we hope will yield our next Betts-caliber talent, a move akin to trading Betts in 2015?

Which we (it is rumored) almost did. Who knows with these things, but Mets fans believe that Sandy Alderson turned down Mookie Betts for Matt Harvey in 2014; whether an offer was actually made or who said no, I could not tell you, but googling shows that a trade on those lines was widely discussed in the media, so I take it as an example of the sort of thing that seemed plausible to people at the time. It obviously would have been a disaster.

Whatever the truth of that rumor; there were any number of trade ideas under discussion in that period that would have traded from our young position-player hoard for pitching. We did one of them to get Chris Sale! That one worked out great. We traded only players who did not fully reach their potential; Sale was great; Dombrowski kept Devers out of the deal. But teams screw this up all the time: the same White Sox gave up Fernando Tatis Jr. in a trade for James Shields the year before they sent us Sale. (This may be an argument for trading with the White Sox specifically, now that I type it all up — go get Crochet!)

Clearly there are risks and benefits to both avenues, and I'm not saying never trade prospects (we also kept some highly-ranked prospects from that wave who did not pan out for various reasons until after their trade value collapsed). I'm suggesting that the downside risk of the FA path may be better than the downside risk of the trade path, especially when you're talking about prospects of the ceiling and proximity of Anthony, Mayer, Teel, and Campbell. Yes, the David Price contract turned sour. But he really helped this team, pitching well for three division winners. By the time it went south, he'd contributed to the best three-season run of Red Sox baseball since... the 1910s? The downside of the signing was that by the end of the 2019 season, we had an increasingly expensive and term-committed roster whose future did not look especially bright; this, as we all understand, led to the Betts trade, whether we think that reasoning was sound or no.

The FA deal going bad meant the roster was such that we couldn't keep our homegrown position-player core. The FA deal not happening might have meant we didn't get our homegrown position-player core.
There were many around these parts worried about giving up Moncada and Kopech, this all comes down to internal evaluation of your own talent. If another team likes your players more than you do that's often when deals get done.
 

lexrageorge

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I think the Montgomery and Snell flaws were harder for Boras to hide. Snell barely could pitch a full starter's load and Montgomery was really only a borderline "no. 1" starter for a short stretch, otherwise he was a mid rotation innings eating guy. Boras overplayed his hand. I think Fried and Burns obviously have flaws but they're easier to overlook and for teams to think they'll get 4-5 "good to great" years out of them before the final years are likely crap.
This. Montgomery was hardly ever great except for one 2-3 month stretch in 2023. Never understood the hype around him other than the fact that Boring Ass was his agent. Breslow was smart to stay away.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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This. Montgomery was hardly ever great except for one 2-3 month stretch in 2023. Never understood the hype around him other than the fact that Boring Ass was his agent. Breslow was smart to stay away.
FWIW, as someone who wanted Montgomery very badly, the argument was never that he was great (or at least mine wasn't).

It was that he was consistently above average, someone that took the ball 30 games a year and did so effectively, had shown to not be a puddle in the AL East, and in an organization that had nothing in the way of advanced pitching prospects, we believed there was value in that. Truth be told, I think he's going to go back to being the 30 start, call it 110 ERA+ pitcher he has consistently been with a normal off-season and spring training.

If there were an opportunity to sign him for 4/$100m right now (there isn't) I'd be arguing the Sox should do it. But that is because I think he's a good bet to produce 30 starts and a 110 ERA+, not because I think he's great. More that I think he's an approximation of John Lackey.
 

simplicio

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Exactly. We were coming off 2 seasons tanked by pitching collapses (hey, now 3!) and he was a guy who could consistently work deep into games with a sub 4 ERA, 30+ starts a year. 2021-2023 he was 16th in fWAR among starters because of that, not because he was great for the Rangers down the stretch.

Of course that doesn't preclude the likelihood that Boras was trying to sell him as though he'd been the Rangers version all along.
 

chawson

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If there were an opportunity to sign him for 4/$100m right now (there isn't) I'd be arguing the Sox should do it. But that is because I think he's a good bet to produce 30 starts and a 110 ERA+, not because I think he's great. More that I think he's an approximation of John Lackey.
There is probably an opportunity to assume his 1/$22.5M contract for a 40 FV A-ball prospect and I'm not sure the Diamondbacks will find a strong market for that.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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There is probably an opportunity to assume his 1/$22.5M contract for a 40 FV A-ball prospect and I'm not sure the Diamondbacks will find a strong market for that.
Probably true. But I (personally) have no interest in a one year deal. If that were 4/$90m and said 40 FV A ball prospect, I'd want the Sox to be all over it. Generally, I am against one year deals for SPs learning to navigate Fenway Park.

(Not unique to Montgomery, for the record. I like Giolito too, but dislike the parameters of the contract. I understand that a player has to agree to a deal, which is why I'm saying that I generally am against one year deals for SPs and if they won't take longer, I think the Sox should look elsewhere. Or Wacha last year. I would have been more than fine with re-signing the player, I had no interest in him on the exact deal he signed with KC.)
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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There is probably an opportunity to assume his 1/$22.5M contract for a 40 FV A-ball prospect and I'm not sure the Diamondbacks will find a strong market for that.
Probably true. But I (personally) have no interest in a one year deal. If that were 4/$90m and said 40 FV A ball prospect, I'd want the Sox to be all over it. Generally, I am against one year deals for SPs learning to navigate Fenway Park.

(Not unique to Montgomery, for the record. I like Giolito too, but dislike the parameters of the contract. I understand that a player has to agree to a deal, which is why I'm saying that I generally am against one year deals for SPs and if they won't take longer, I think the Sox should look elsewhere. Or Wacha last year. I would have been more than fine with re-signing the player, I had no interest in him on the exact deal he signed with KC.)
FWIW

90487
 

Fishy1

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One thing I haven't seen laid out is how much the team lost just due to bad players getting a lot of time. I was looking at the Yankees fangraphs page and they had exactly one player below replacement level by fWAR -- Jasson Dominguez -- at -.2 fWAR. The Orioles had negative 1.4 fWAR.

The Red Sox accumulated negative 3.9 fWAR. That basically, by itself, negates Raffy Dever's production. Now yes, fWAR is a crude measurement, and likely the story is not so simple, but I thought it was an interesting angle. The performance especially of guys like Reyes, Dalbec, Grissom and Valdez was a huge drag on the team's performance overall even though they were out there for a short time. Dalbec lost games with his whiffing. Reyes lost games with his glove (and his whiffing).

This lack of depth was noted by others during the season, and solved in part (eventually) by playing guys like Dom Smith, Sogard, Romy, and David Hamilton over Grissom, Valdez, Cooper and Dalbec, but it's striking the extent to which Breslow and company whiffed on this group. Grissom is maybe the only one of the crew I still have faith in, having lost most of his season to bad hamstrings and a horrible flu which made him lose a ton of weight.

90496
There's more than 500 plate appearance in this group. Obviously the offensive performance of this group collectively stunk, but I wonder if one way of avoiding this sort of disaster is by having your depth be defensive specialists. None of these guys, except for Jansen, was supposed to be a remarkable defensive player.

I hope the depth will be better next year. The big four are all rumored to be good defenders, and Sogard, Hamilton, and Romy are capable defenders, and they're not all likely going anywhere. Valdez and Dalbec are likely gone.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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This lack of depth was noted by others during the season, and solved in part (eventually) by playing guys like Dom Smith, Sogard, Romy, and David Hamilton over Grissom, Valdez, Cooper and Dalbec, but it's striking the extent to which Breslow and company whiffed on this group. Grissom is maybe the only one of the crew I still have faith in, having lost most of his season to bad hamstrings and a horrible flu which made him lose a ton of weight.

I hope the depth will be better next year. The big four are all rumored to be good defenders, and Sogard, Hamilton, and Romy are capable defenders, and they're not all likely going anywhere. Valdez and Dalbec are likely gone.
Edited down to respond, not meaning to take you out of context.

At a certain level, it's a little tough to rag on the new FO for the guys they're saddled with, and Breslow only acquired one of the four players you mentioned. It's also tough when he went out and acquired / played guys specifically to replace said dreck - as you noted above. He's also somewhat hamstrung by a) two of the three biggest payroll items on the team being a virtual lock to miss 2/3 of the season and a platoon DH only player and of course b) that you don't get to just cut everyone and start from scratch.

Pablo Reyes, Bobby Dalbec and Enmanuel Valdez aren't good baseball players, and there are multiple seasons of data to back that up. I seriously doubt Breslow expected them to be good because there were reams of baseball data showing they aren't good and shouldn't be expected to be good. Just like I don't all of a sudden expect that Refsnyder is going to start hitting RHPs or Yoshida LHPs (and neither does Breslow, I'm sure).

But when you have to platoon 1/2 your roster and are kind of screwed at the most important defensive position on the diamond (because it's not like you can trade Story, you HAVE to start him, and do so with the knowledge that he's probably going to play around75g) there isn't much to be done.

I'll give you that they should have gone out and gotten a bona fide middle infielder earlier in the season especially when your back up plan (Gonazlez) has a penchant for missing games, for sure, but I understand why bad baseball players performed badly, and I'm sure Breslow does too. He didn't acquire most of them, though.
 

Fishy1

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Edited down to respond, not meaning to take you out of context.

At a certain level, it's a little tough to rag on the new FO for the guys they're saddled with, and Breslow only acquired one of the four players you mentioned. It's also tough when he went out and acquired / played guys specifically to replace said dreck - as you noted above. He's also somewhat hamstrung by a) two of the three biggest payroll items on the team being a virtual lock to miss 2/3 of the season and a platoon DH only player and of course b) that you don't get to just cut everyone and start from scratch.

Pablo Reyes, Bobby Dalbec and Enmanuel Valdez aren't good baseball players, and there are multiple seasons of data to back that up. I seriously doubt Breslow expected them to be good because there were reams of baseball data showing they aren't good and shouldn't be expected to be good. Just like I don't all of a sudden expect that Refsnyder is going to start hitting RHPs or Yoshida LHPs (and neither does Breslow, I'm sure).

But when you have to platoon 1/2 your roster and are kind of screwed at the most important defensive position on the diamond (because it's not like you can trade Story, you HAVE to start him, and do so with the knowledge that he's probably going to play around75g) there isn't much to be done.

I'll give you that they should have gone out and gotten a bona fide middle infielder earlier in the season especially when your back up plan (Gonazlez) has a penchant for missing games, for sure, but I understand why bad baseball players performed badly, and I'm sure Breslow does too. He didn't acquire most of them, though.
Yeah, that's totally fair. I should not have put it on Breslow, and you're right to point out that what really necessitated all of this was the injuries.

The only way I guess you could knock him was not moving on faster from some of these guys. Dalbec got enough rope to make a pretty noose, as did Valdez, but the alternatives were not great, and I can understand why, after Valdez's debut last year, Breslow might've thought he could give them a cromulent second base.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Yeah, that's totally fair. I should not have put it on Breslow, and you're right to point out that what really necessitated all of this was the injuries.

The only way I guess you could knock him was not moving on faster from some of these guys. Dalbec got enough rope to make a pretty noose, as did Valdez, but the alternatives were not great, and I can understand why, after Valdez's debut last year, Breslow might've thought he could give them a cromulent second base.
For the record, I agree totally with your point about the absolutely putrid performance of those players. Not that it necessarily "sunk" the season, but it's what kept them from playing meaningful baseball all the way up until lets say the last Saturday of the season as opposed to the last Tuesday (or however the days worked out, and I don't care to look at the day of the week they were eliminated). Breslow just isn't the one I blame for it.

I THINK what he probably did (or at least what I'd have done in his shoes) was outlined for Henry exactly where the major problems were in the organization and laid out the plan to fix it. But no rational person should expect that to be done in one fell swoop (and I bet it didn't hurt having Theo I'm sure outline the same problems). The big money contracts were all out there on players that cannot be depended upon (excepting Devers). Paying $30m for $27m in product doesn't screw a team; paying $18m for $6m and $26m for $5m does however really does. The only one that can "spend out of that problem" is Henry. I hope he will now that there is someone else advising him how to do it, but that of course remains to be seen. (To be clear, based on his handing out of deals, I would not have allowed Bloom to spend $100m of my money either, but conversely, I would allow Breslow to now, and hope Henry does, but I doubt it happens).

He also needed to fix the fact that pitching development and minor league acquisition was basically non-existent for the last half decade (which I think he did with Fitts, Priester, Sandlin and drafting Tolle). To be clear, do I think Fitts, Priester or Sandlin will be top of the rotation pitchers - no. But I think you're going to probably get a decent 4 starter (Crawford type), and a good relief pitcher out of those three, possible you get a 3, a 5 and a reliever also, but that is mostly because I really like Priester. Tolle we have literally no idea on.

Next thing he has to work on is the fact that you already need to use up a ton of bench spots with guys that need to be platooned (RF, DH, 2b) which doesn't seem that bad until one realizes that a bench spot has to go to a back up C (and to your point SHOULD have gone to a defense first SS with the assumption that Story misses ~ 100 games), thus your bench is already "full." Then when one player goes down (Casas) or two (O'Neill missing his customary 50 games, which was actually him "staying healthy" by about 3 to 4 extra weeks) you end up getting really thin really fast.


In my heart of hearts, I do not think the Sox are going to be willing to spend massive money (so forget Burnes, Fried, Bregman, Snell, Kim, Adames) and I don't think they're going to be able to find the kind of trade to get the pieces they need without giving up Anthony or Campbell (which I wouldn't do). But I DO think you'll see them go out and acquire a piece that provides some RH consistency (Hernandez, Santander, Gurriel types) and allows them to move something from that LH log jam for either simply the roster spot and a little cash saved to use elsewhere (Yoshida) or something that hurts more to give up, but you get something better like a really good 'pen arm or a projectable starter that we're not thinking of in return (lets say Abreu for Kyle Harrison type of move).

I said this last year, but I really don't think firing Bloom and hiring Breslow was the culmination of the rebuild. I think it was the realization that the rebuild didn't happen, and you needed someone else to come in. This will be more like year 2 of a rebuild (but one that should only take about 3 years) not year 5 or whatever. But with inheriting so many holes in the majors and upper minors, one can only fix so much in one off-season.
 

Cassvt2023

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I can see a world where they trade Abreu for pitching, sign Teoscar and stick him in LF, and start the season with Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF to give Anthony the first month in AAA. Romy would be utility guy. Then when Roman is up, Ceddanne slides into the super utility role, playing 4-5 times a week all over and hitting out of the 9 hole.

Duran CF
Grissom 2B
Devers 3B
Teoscar LF
Casas 1B
Story SS
Yoshida DH
Wong C
Rafaela RF

backup C
Romy IF/OF
Hamilton IF/PR
Refsnyder OF

If they could get thru the first month or so of the season with something like this, where they open with 4 in Texas, and have 7 against the so-so Blue Jays, 7 against the presumably horrible again White Sox, and 3 on the road against the Rays, who have no idea where they'll be playing their homes games. That is 21 games with a good chance to start off strong (and hopefully healthy). Soon after, Anthony and/or Campbell should be ready.
 

simplicio

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Is Teoscar blocking someone in LA? I'm assuming they give him the QO Seattle failed to last winter if they don't extend him, and there's no way he's worth giving up draft picks for.
 

Cassvt2023

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Is Teoscar blocking someone in LA? I'm assuming they give him the QO Seattle failed to last winter if they don't extend him, and there's no way he's worth giving up draft picks for.
they may get draft picks back for Pivetta and/ or O’Neill.. Teoscar wanted to come to Boston last year. He rakes at Fenway. His L/R splits are pretty solid. his OBP has been solid outside of the Seattle stint. Having another prominent Dominican guy on the team couldn’t be a bad thing for Raffy. Did I mention he wanted to sign here last year, loves hitting at Fenway and is AL east tested?
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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they may get draft picks back for Pivetta and/ or O’Neill.. Teoscar wanted to come to Boston last year. He rakes at Fenway. His L/R splits are pretty solid. his OBP has been solid outside of the Seattle stint. Having another prominent Dominican guy on the team couldn’t be a bad thing for Raffy. Did I mention he wanted to sign here last year, loves hitting at Fenway and is AL east tested?
FWIW, I agree on Hernandez (and I wanted him last winter and was excited when there was that "report" that he and the Sox were signing a 4/$80m offer). Though I do find it highly likely LA will give him a QO, but we'll see.

However, since it's kind of a "rumor" and from a well-respected source, it sounds more likely than not that neither Pivetta nor O'Neill will be given a QO. https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2024/10/18/mlb-red-sox-qualifying-offer-tyler-oneill-nick-pivetta/. The link is to Boston.com but it's per McAdam.

Don't get me wrong, I'd still consider giving up the pick (depending on where it would be) for Hernandez, but recouping said picks from Pivetta or O'Neill might not be likely.
 

moondog80

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FWIW, I agree on Hernandez (and I wanted him last winter and was excited when there was that "report" that he and the Sox were signing a 4/$80m offer). Though I do find it highly likely LA will give him a QO, but we'll see.

However, since it's kind of a "rumor" and from a well-respected source, it sounds more likely than not that neither Pivetta nor O'Neill will be given a QO. https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2024/10/18/mlb-red-sox-qualifying-offer-tyler-oneill-nick-pivetta/. The link is to Boston.com but it's per McAdam.

Don't get me wrong, I'd still consider giving up the pick (depending on where it would be) for Hernandez, but recouping said picks from Pivetta or O'Neill might not be likely.
Though I still think it's a good gamble, I will take the lack of a QO to Pivetta/O'Neill as a positive sign insofar as they have a plan to spend that $$ elsewhere.
 

chrisfont9

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Bowden has posted his free agent rankings, predictions, etc. It is superficial as usual, but a good way to keep track of the options I suppose. One notable name I can't recall mentioned here is Carlos Estévez(BRef link). Big 2024 and has been solid for a couple years, including in Philly, so he has played in a similar environment. His FIP isn't as gaudy as his ERA and his K/9 is not spectacular, but for that reason maybe he doesn't break the bank either.
 

nvalvo

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Is Teoscar blocking someone in LA? I'm assuming they give him the QO Seattle failed to last winter if they don't extend him, and there's no way he's worth giving up draft picks for.
They have a couple very interesting OF in their system, but they are in the low minors. Neither shouldn't factor into Teoscar planning.
  • Josue de Paula was 19 this season and had an ~.800 OPS in high-A this year. He's tall and skinny, so it seems like they're just waiting on his physical development.
  • They also have this kid Zyhir Hope (part of the return from the Cubs for Michael Busch) who might have 80 power at peak. He's also 19, in A. I'm mostly posting this because I'm fascinated by Hope, who's built like Jackie Bradley but already at 19 has peak exit velocities (110+) that would be above average in MLB. When the insane teenaged EVs come from a moose-sized dude like Triston Casas, that's one thing: I don't get how Zyhir can do this, just, like, as a physics problem.
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

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Is Teoscar blocking someone in LA? I'm assuming they give him the QO Seattle failed to last winter if they don't extend him, and there's no way he's worth giving up draft picks for.
Teoscar's pretty-bad defense means that Ohtani is blocking Teoscar. If Ohtani's not on that team (and everything else remains the same), Teo's taking a lot of reps at DH (if not exclusively). His bat and Ohtani's lack of a fielding position make it an awkward (but fruitful!) fit. Bring Teo to Boston and maybe the Monster helps, but really, you want him at DH IMO (eye test and stats).
 

chrisfont9

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Teoscar's pretty-bad defense means that Ohtani is blocking Teoscar. If Ohtani's not on that team (and everything else remains the same), Teo's taking a lot of reps at DH (if not exclusively). His bat and Ohtani's lack of a fielding position make it an awkward (but fruitful!) fit. Bring Teo to Boston and maybe the Monster helps, but really, you want him at DH IMO (eye test and stats).
Yeah, I am out on him unless you clear the logjam with O'Neill and Yoshida, one of which is a tricky decision and the other an expensive one. So are we sure he's that much more valuable as a full time DH, the lowest value position on the roster, one which teams avoid because it reduces the flexibility of using players who have defensive value?
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Yeah, I am out on him unless you clear the logjam with O'Neill and Yoshida, one of which is a tricky decision and the other an expensive one. So are we sure he's that much more valuable as a full time DH, the lowest value position on the roster, one which teams avoid because it reduces the flexibility of using players who have defensive value?
While I'm not sure that Teoscar IS that guy, I personally think that the mega market teams (of which Boston at least should act like one) are actually better served using those resources to pay top dollar for a truly impactful DH rather than just using it as a rotating / flex position. When we think of Red Sox teams that have actually won the World Series, they have all had in common a difference making DH - and they've paid for that player. One as a first ballot Hall of Famer and (my opinion) the most important player in Red Sox history (not saying the best, saying the most important) and one that was an absolute monster as a DH in Martinez.

In my heart of hearts, as much as I like Hernandez, I don't think he's "that" guy. On the flip side, I think that Devers is (or could be with significant rest) which is why I would personally have no problem with the Sox moving Devers to DH and the using money to go out and get another impactful "two way" player to play 3b (Bregman or Kim).

Do I think the Red Sox will do that - no, I don't. But I think they should.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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They have a couple very interesting OF in their system, but they are in the low minors. Neither shouldn't factor into Teoscar planning.
  • Josue de Paula was 19 this season and had an ~.800 OPS in high-A this year. He's tall and skinny, so it seems like they're just waiting on his physical development.
  • They also have this kid Zyhir Hope (part of the return from the Cubs for Michael Busch) who might have 80 power at peak. He's also 19, in A. I'm mostly posting this because I'm fascinated by Hope, who's built like Jackie Bradley but already at 19 has peak exit velocities (110+) that would be above average in MLB. When the insane teenaged EVs come from a moose-sized dude like Triston Casas, that's one thing: I don't get how Zyhir can do this, just, like, as a physics problem.
They've also been trying Dalton Rushing out as an OF. I would imagine he would be a leading candidate for their OF next year.
 

pjheff

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please expand on your thinking. That was a vague statement
I can’t see a world where they trade Abreu for pitching, sign Teoscar and stick him in LF, and start the season with Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF to give Anthony the first month in AAA. The only one that seems likely is Duran in CF.
 

chrisfont9

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While I'm not sure that Teoscar IS that guy, I personally think that the mega market teams (of which Boston at least should act like one) are actually better served using those resources to pay top dollar for a truly impactful DH rather than just using it as a rotating / flex position. When we think of Red Sox teams that have actually won the World Series, they have all had in common a difference making DH - and they've paid for that player. One as a first ballot Hall of Famer and (my opinion) the most important player in Red Sox history (not saying the best, saying the most important) and one that was an absolute monster as a DH in Martinez.

In my heart of hearts, as much as I like Hernandez, I don't think he's "that" guy. On the flip side, I think that Devers is (or could be with significant rest) which is why I would personally have no problem with the Sox moving Devers to DH and the using money to go out and get another impactful "two way" player to play 3b (Bregman or Kim).

Do I think the Red Sox will do that - no, I don't. But I think they should.
Yeah, OK, at this point in time you could say the org has enough positional options, including AAA, that they could afford Teoscar eating a spot. And he might really respond to playing in Boston, for all the reasons already mentioned.
 

Cassvt2023

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I can’t see a world where they trade Abreu for pitching, sign Teoscar and stick him in LF, and start the season with Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF to give Anthony the first month in AAA. The only one that seems likely is Duran in CF.
That is fair. It probably won't happen, but i've seen worse ideas floated on here.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Yeah, OK, at this point in time you could say the org has enough positional options, including AAA, that they could afford Teoscar eating a spot. And he might really respond to playing in Boston, for all the reasons already mentioned.
Others have mentioned his penchant for playing in Fenway Park, which I always think of with the caveat of "yeah, but he gets to face the Red Sox pitching" though he also absolutely dominated in Fenway (small sample size) against some pretty darn good pitching staffs in 2017 and 2018, and has a .950 OPS at Fenway Park (Yoshida, on the other hand is .814). I knew he'd been good here, I didn't know he'd been THAT good. Which is all a way of saying, maybe he in fact "IS" (or would be) that kind of JDM type hitter if he got to play half his games here.

If they could get someone to eat 50% of Yoshida's deal, I'd be more than fine with this line up:

Duran - CF (L)
Campbell / Grissom (2b) - R
Devers - 3b (L)
Hernandez - DH (R)
Casas - 1b (L)
Abreu - RF (L)
Wong - C (R)
Anthony - LF (L)
Rafaela - SS (R)

(This is for the majority of the season, once Story goes on the IL. Story would be hitting in the 2 hole with Campbell / Grissom in the 8 hole for the 60 games before that with Rafaela as the super sub. As the year goes on, Anthony moves up in the order, at least I think so).
 

chrisfont9

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Others have mentioned his penchant for playing in Fenway Park, which I always think of with the caveat of "yeah, but he gets to face the Red Sox pitching" though he also absolutely dominated in Fenway (small sample size) against some pretty darn good pitching staffs in 2017 and 2018, and has a .950 OPS at Fenway Park (Yoshida, on the other hand is .814). I knew he'd been good here, I didn't know he'd been THAT good. Which is all a way of saying, maybe he in fact "IS" (or would be) that kind of JDM type hitter if he got to play half his games here.

If they could get someone to eat 50% of Yoshida's deal, I'd be more than fine with this line up:

Duran - CF (L)
Campbell / Grissom (2b) - R
Devers - 3b (L)
Hernandez - DH (R)
Casas - 1b (L)
Abreu - RF (L)
Wong - C (R)
Anthony - LF (L)
Rafaela - SS (R)

(This is for the majority of the season, once Story goes on the IL. Story would be hitting in the 2 hole with Campbell / Grissom in the 8 hole for the 60 games before that with Rafaela as the super sub. As the year goes on, Anthony moves up in the order, at least I think so).
We've seen so many guys over the years come to Boston and regain their stroke or otherwise be the best hitting version of themselves. Maybe the sightlines just give them a comfort that translates into year-long confidence. Hernandez taking to Fenway just in his infrequent visits does bode well.
 

bressoud

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Sep 30, 2024
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I can see a world where they trade Abreu for pitching, sign Teoscar and stick him in LF, and start the season with Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF to give Anthony the first month in AAA. Romy would be utility guy. Then when Roman is up, Ceddanne slides into the super utility role, playing 4-5 times a week all over and hitting out of the 9 hole.

Duran CF
Grissom 2B
Devers 3B
Teoscar LF
Casas 1B
Story SS
Yoshida DH
Wong C
Rafaela RF

backup C
Romy IF/OF
Hamilton IF/PR
Refsnyder OF

If they could get thru the first month or so of the season with something like this, where they open with 4 in Texas, and have 7 against the so-so Blue Jays, 7 against the presumably horrible again White Sox, and 3 on the road against the Rays, who have no idea where they'll be playing their homes games. That is 21 games with a good chance to start off strong (and hopefully healthy). Soon after, Anthony and/or Campbell should be ready.
I love that plan. If he sticks, Campbell could back up 3B, 2B and a little OF. Very valuable; big upgrade over Romy. If the pitcher they get for Abreu+ is solid, that would be a tough team to pitch to.
 

cantor44

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I can’t.
I can. I actually think this is a likely path. With Anthony coming we have LHH redundancy in the outfield. And Abreu could fetch a decent arm. I suspect they do just what Cassvt says. And I hope, sign a FA pitcher, and reliever or two. I'm skeptical they will ever sign elite free agents anymore, but admit the jury is still sorta out there ....
 

pjheff

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I can. I actually think this is a likely path. With Anthony coming we have LHH redundancy in the outfield. And Abreu could fetch a decent arm. I suspect they do just what Cassvt says. And I hope, sign a FA pitcher, and reliever or two. I'm skeptical they will ever sign elite free agents anymore, but admit the jury is still sorta out there ....
Define “likely.” Would you care to place odds on the likelihood of the four elements of that post?

Duran in CF

Rafaela the starting RFer coming out of ST

Abreu traded for pitching

Hernandez signed
 

Sox Puppet

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Dec 7, 2016
773
I'm really hoping Breslow & co. surprise us with an out-of-the-box trade possibility that doesn't require us setting fire to our prospect surplus. Pretty much 90% of our trade/FA speculation on this board involves a few binkies:

Gilbert/Kirby/Woo
Garrett Crochet
Ha-Seong Kim
Teoscar Hernandez
Jesus Luzardo

Don't ask me who else should make that list, but I like the Priester/Yorke - type trades that seem to catch everyone by surprise. Of course, if Yorke ends up being a 3-4 WAR player, I might have to eat those words.
 
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cantor44

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Define “likely.” Would you care to place odds on the likelihood of the four elements of that post?

Duran in CF

Rafaela the starting RFer coming out of ST

Abreu traded for pitching

Hernandez signed
Ah well, maybe "likely" is too general a word. What I think is quite probable: RHH signed, an outfielder traded for pitching (and Abreu seems the most likely), Rafaela starting in the OF at the beginning of the season and being moved around once Anthony comes up. Those seem like very logical possibilities that stand a good chance of coming to pass. But, there are so many externalities (injuries, etc), so many possible eventualities, that "likely" probably isn't the most apt word. You got me!
 

Cassvt2023

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Jan 17, 2023
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Ah well, maybe "likely" is too general a word. What I think is quite probable: RHH signed, an outfielder traded for pitching (and Abreu seems the most likely), Rafaela starting in the OF at the beginning of the season and being moved around once Anthony comes up. Those seem like very logical possibilities that stand a good chance of coming to pass. But, there are so many externalities (injuries, etc), so many possible eventualities, that "likely" probably isn't the most apt word. You got me!
Oh my god cantor44, what were you thinking when using words like “likely” in an offseason thread about general ideas of how the team may be constructed 4 + months from now? you should probably pay more attention to the words you choose, and less to actual rational and reasonable thoughts about what this team that we all gather here for may look like next season.
 

finnVT

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I'd really love to see them try to bring two starters in. Sign Fried (Buehler and Flaherty are interesting lower-cost alternatives, I suspect Burnes gets too pricey), and then build a package around Bello+Abreu+prospects (excluding the big 4) for another SP to upgrade Bello's spot. The cost-controlled nature of that package should get you into the conversation for some of the bigger names mentioned in this thread (Crochet, the SEA guys, etc). Then you're looking at a rotation of Fried/Crochet (e.g.)/Houck/Giolito/Crawford, which feels like a huge improvement from last year (pending health), though this may just be me being skeptical of Bello being able to take the next step in his development.

I don't love moving Abreu, but he feels like the odd man out here, while also having enough value to help bring in a useful upgrade elsewhere. Rafaela loses a ton of value (imo) playing in the infield where his defense is just ok, vs CF where he's exceptional. Duran/Rafaela/Anthony (whenever he's ready)/Refsnyder or O'neill (if his market doesn't quite materialize and they can somehow retain him) is a nice high-upside group both offensively and defensively.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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I'd really love to see them try to bring two starters in. Sign Fried (Buehler and Flaherty are interesting lower-cost alternatives, I suspect Burnes gets too pricey), and then build a package around Bello+Abreu+prospects (excluding the big 4) for another SP to upgrade Bello's spot. The cost-controlled nature of that package should get you into the conversation for some of the bigger names mentioned in this thread (Crochet, the SEA guys, etc). Then you're looking at a rotation of Fried/Crochet (e.g.)/Houck/Giolito/Crawford, which feels like a huge improvement from last year (pending health), though this may just be me being skeptical of Bello being able to take the next step in his development.

I don't love moving Abreu, but he feels like the odd man out here, while also having enough value to help bring in a useful upgrade elsewhere. Rafaela loses a ton of value (imo) playing in the infield where his defense is just ok, vs CF where he's exceptional. Duran/Rafaela/Anthony (whenever he's ready)/Refsnyder or O'neill (if his market doesn't quite materialize and they can somehow retain him) is a nice high-upside group both offensively and defensively.
I'd like to be going into the season with two starters ahead of the Houck, Giolito, Bello, Crawford group. What's far more likely is that they get one guy at the front of that list and one guy for the back of that list. The team isn't that far away, and the offense can largely be resolved with in house candidates (or a QO to TO).

They have roughly $80 million to play with and even more if they're willing to go over the cap. I imagine $20-30 of that goes towards the bullpen, $30-40 goes towards rotation additions and $10-20 goes to the lineup (again, without TO).
 

chrisfont9

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I'd really love to see them try to bring two starters in. Sign Fried (Buehler and Flaherty are interesting lower-cost alternatives, I suspect Burnes gets too pricey), and then build a package around Bello+Abreu+prospects (excluding the big 4) for another SP to upgrade Bello's spot. The cost-controlled nature of that package should get you into the conversation for some of the bigger names mentioned in this thread (Crochet, the SEA guys, etc). Then you're looking at a rotation of Fried/Crochet (e.g.)/Houck/Giolito/Crawford, which feels like a huge improvement from last year (pending health), though this may just be me being skeptical of Bello being able to take the next step in his development.

I don't love moving Abreu, but he feels like the odd man out here, while also having enough value to help bring in a useful upgrade elsewhere. Rafaela loses a ton of value (imo) playing in the infield where his defense is just ok, vs CF where he's exceptional. Duran/Rafaela/Anthony (whenever he's ready)/Refsnyder or O'neill (if his market doesn't quite materialize and they can somehow retain him) is a nice high-upside group both offensively and defensively.
Ugh, Bello is just getting started. Both of those guys we would be selling low on and probably regret trading either based on what would come back. Pitchers need time, Bello is just scratching the surface of what he can do. Also he's exactly the player we've needed to be developing, and haven't, for years. Fortunately I don't think the team sees this as an opportunity to sell for a slightly shinier object in Crochet. The Seattle guys are another story, but they won't take that package.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Ugh, Bello is just getting started. Both of those guys we would be selling low on and probably regret trading either based on what would come back. Pitchers need time, Bello is just scratching the surface of what we can do. Also he's exactly the player we've needed to be developing, and haven't, for years. Fortunately I don't think the team sees this as an opportunity to sell for a slightly shinier object in Crochet. The Seattle guys are another story, but they won't take that package.
They're not going to sign Bello to the contract he got this spring and then trade him within a year. He isn't Bronson Arroyo. <ducks>
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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They're not going to sign Bello to the contract he got this spring and then trade him within a year. He isn't Bronson Arroyo. <ducks>
Bello had a really bad first half. He’s more likely to pitch closer to his 2half going forward. That’s a guy you hold onto especially with his contract
 

greenmountains

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Feb 24, 2023
62
Bello had a really bad first half. He’s more likely to pitch closer to his 2half going forward. That’s a guy you hold onto especially with his contract
Bello feels like a guy that was trying to justify his contract for the first half of the season. Trying to make the "perfect" pitch and then getting rattled when it wasn't. He seemed to have settled in during the second half and pitch to his skill level, not to his contract. I think he's scratching the surface...and developmentally, he's likely 2nd starter with a shot at number 1 (no idea if he can get there, but the stuff is there).

Personally, I'd like to see management to acquire Fried (or Burnes) as the Number 1. Trade outfield depth (Abreu / Duran plus minor league infield glut not named Mayer or Campbell) for Seattle / Pittsburg / Crochet. The rotation is Fried (Burnes)/Houck/Bello/Gialito/Crochet (or other young gun)/Crawford with some minor league depth (Priester, Fitts and Criswell) available for SP 7, SP 8 and SP 9. That feels like top of the AL East rotation.

The outfield is Rafaela (CF) - just stick him here and let his defense change games, Duran in LF (or Abreu in RF), Anthony in the other outfield spot. That outfield defense is remarkable. With the improvement in the starting pitching and improvement in the outfield defense, the loss of Duran or Abreu would be minimized. Only Anthony is being relied upon as a rookie starter (1 - I don't think he has anything to prove in AAA; and 2 - the Sox had two rookies - Rafaela and Abreu - in 2024). Let the other of the big 4 push for playing time, but they wouldn't be relied until they are ready. Infield defense will improve with Story and Grissom / Campbell.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Ian Browne put this in a burnings question article on MLB.com regarding the need to add guys to the 40 man roster...

Five of Boston’s Top 30 Prospects must be protected to avoid inclusion in the Rule 5 Draft: OF Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 12), OF Allan Castro (No. 19), RHP Hunter Dobbins (No. 21), RHP Yordanny Monegro (No. 25) and 3B/1B Blaze Jordan (No. 26). The deadline for clubs to add players to their 40-man roster and protect them from the Rule 5 Draft is Nov. 19 at 6 p.m. ET.
In terms of value, those 5 each fall between 1.7 - 2.3 million of surplus value according to Baseball Trade Values. I'm sure one of the goals would be to consolidate some of them for a reliever.
 

simplicio

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I think they protect Garcia and the pitchers, but Castro and Jordan were both pretty middling in AA this year.

Fulmer also needs to be protected.
 
Feb 9, 2024
29
Is Walker Buehler back to his old self? The guy was once one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He had a rough regular season coming back from a 2nd TJ plus battling a hip injury. However, he has looked like the Buehler of old in the playoffs. He had great life on his fastball against the Yankees. If he could be had on a much shorter and cheaper contract than Fried and Burnes, I would be happy if the Sox took a flier on him.
 

moondog80

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I know he's still kinda young, but Blaze Jordan hit 291/305/388 at Portland this year and can't play anywhere other than 1B. Is there really a team that would give him an MLB roster spot?