Targets locked: who should Breslow bring to Boston this winter?

[simplicio]

Name names and prices.

SP: Bryan Woo (and Mitch Haniger) from Seattle for Wilyer Abreu, Zach Penrod and Miguel Bleis. Seattle had one above average LHB in Luke Raley this year and he was a platoon bat with bad defense; Abreu can be an everyday improvement in the field and let them move Arozarena (also very bad D) to DH against RHP with Turner gone. Penrod is untested but has better pure stuff than either of their LHRP. Bleis is a very high upside lottery ticket. Take back Haniger and a whatever portion of his contract is needed to get the deal done, DFA to taste.

I'd also be into Burnes or Freid at something around $27m/yr, but given Breslow's recent statement about not going for a giant 7 year deal identifying breakout guys I think he's looking more at a guy like Woo who was really promising but not quite an ace yet (and didn't throw ace-like total innings this year).
Edit: I was mistaken about his quote.

RHRP: Jeff Hoffman, 4/$56m. Great stuff, has been consistent for PHI the last two years and gotten a lot of high lev usage without gaudy save numbers to drive the price up. We need a late inning guy and I think he slips under the radar a bit compared to Tanner Scott.

LHRP: AJ Minter, 3/$18m. He's been quite good for a long time as a dependable middle inning lefty, but ran into hip trouble this year with surgery in August to end his season. If he can recover from it he's an upgrade to Bernardino and Booser.

C: Carson Kelly, 3/$24m. I'm ready to not rely on the worst catcher in baseball anymore. Kelly has been having a good year with the glove and bat but I think he hasn't been consistent enough in his career to command the 3/30 Vazquez got, though I'd go that high for him if it comes to it. Retain Wong until Teel is ready, hopefully by the deadline, then trade him.

Bonus budget SP option: Nick Martinez, 3/$36. He's another pitching+ monster with a newly excellent walk rate, and without the HR problems that have plagued Pivetta and Crawford. A little older going into his age 34 season but I could see him being a very Breslow/Bailey choice, and he should age well cause he's never been a big velo guy. Also performed in another hitter's park this year in CIN.

 

[TomRicardo]

Name names and prices.

SP: Bryan Woo (and Mitch Haniger) from Seattle for Wilyer Abreu, Zach Penrod and Miguel Bleis. Seattle had one above average LHB in Luke Raley this year and he was a platoon bat with bad defense; Abreu can be an everyday improvement in the field and let them move Arozarena (also very bad D) to DH against RHP with Turner gone. Penrod is untested but has better pure stuff than either of their LHRP. Bleis is a very high upside lottery ticket. Take back Haniger and a whatever portion of his contract is needed to get the deal done, DFA to taste.

I'd also be into Burnes or Freid at something around $27m/yr, but given Breslow's recent statement about not going for a giant 7 year deal I think he's looking more at a guy like Woo who was really promising but not quite an ace yet (and didn't throw ace-like total innings this year).

RHRP: Jeff Hoffman, 4/$56m. Great stuff, has been consistent for PHI the last two years and gotten a lot of high lev usage without gaudy save numbers to drive the price up. We need a late inning guy and I think he slips under the radar a bit compared to Tanner Scott.

LHRP: AJ Minter, 3/$18m. He's been quite good for a long time as a dependable middle inning lefty, but ran into hip trouble this year with surgery in August to end his season. If he can recover from it he's an upgrade to Bernardino and Booser.

C: Carson Kelly, 3/$24m. I'm ready to not rely on the worst catcher in baseball anymore. Kelly has been having a good year with the glove and bat but I think he hasn't been consistent enough in his career to command the 3/30 Vazquez got, though I'd go that high for him if it comes to it. Retain Wong until Teel is ready, hopefully by the deadline, then trade him.

Bonus budget SP option: Nick Martinez, 3/$36. He's another pitching+ monster with a newly excellent walk rate, and without the HR problems that have plagued Pivetta and Crawford. A little older going into his age 34 season but I could see him being a very Breslow/Bailey choice, and he should age well cause he's never been a big velo guy. Also performed in another hitter's park this year in CIN.

You aren't getting Woo without Anthony and Mayer going over. Maybe you can put something around one of them and Campbell.

Why Carson Kelly?

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Media comment but FWIW:

View: https://twitter.com/ryandivish/status/1840164420204540316?s=46

 

[mikcou]

You aren't getting Woo without Anthony and Mayer going over. Maybe you can put something around one of them and Campbell.

Why Carson Kelly?

Yeah, Im not sure that you need both Anthony and Mayer, but any deal for a guy like Woo is going to include a top 4 guy along with Abreu. Bleis just doesnt have that much value after an injured 2023 season and a 2024 season where he didnt really hit. I could see a Abreu and Mayer/Campbell type package getting it done.

Realistically Seattle probably has no interest in moving Woo at basically any price.

 

[simplicio]

You aren't getting Woo without Anthony and Mayer going over. Maybe you can put something around one of them and Campbell.

Why Carson Kelly?

Kelly cause he's a catcher who can catch well, he's youngish and not a complete black hole at the plate. Wong is a liability on defense.

 

[nvalvo]

Bleis should be basically untouchable this offseason, not because he's our best prospect, but because he will regain a ton of value very quickly with a good first half next year. It would be sad to sell low.

 

[grimshaw]

As a point of reference - here are some valuable assets and their relative worth via baseballtradevalues. I also added the closest valued pitchers to those players.

Duran - 78.4 (Cole Ragans, George Kirby, Logan Webb)
Anthony - 65.2 (nothing too close - worth a lot more than Brandon Pfaadt and Andrew Painter)
Mayer - 64.9
Bello - 49.3 (Catcher - Yainer Diaz)
Teel - 40 (Garrett Crochet)
Campbell - 38.6 (Gavin Williams)
Abreu - 28.7 (Brady Singer)
Bleis - 13.3 (Ryan Weathers)
Hamilton - 11.1 (Zack Eflin) Or a reliever like Alexis Diaz.

Guys listed as underwater
Trevor Story (-70.5)
Yoshida (-22.4)
Rafaela (-8.7) I believe they use fangraphs WAR. If they used bWAR he'd be positive value.

Tarik Skubal is listed at 91.4 - but I can't imagine the Tigers would float him now with their great run. Maybe they can pay him now.

 

[Max Power]

Media comment but FWIW:

View: https://twitter.com/ryandivish/status/1840164420204540316?s=46

Dipoto usually makes more than 26 moves every offseason, so Plan Z isn't very unlikely.

 

[moondog80]

I'd also be into Burnes or Freid at something around $27m/yr, but given Breslow's recent statement about not going for a giant 7 year deal I think he's looking more at a guy like Woo who was really promising but not quite an ace yet (and didn't throw ace-like total innings this year).

I know Breslow has been making the rounds, but I must have missed this. Can you elaborate?

 

[simplicio]

I know Breslow has been making the rounds, but I must have missed this. Can you elaborate?

Sorry I was mistaken, I conflated a Breslow quote about targeting breakout guys and a Speier one speculating that they'd be doing that instead of spending big. Craig did not say that.
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1839820622110642606

 

[JimD]

I like Alex Speier, but that sounds like typical talking-head blather than any real insight into the FO's thinking. It's all fine and good to want to identify those guys, but if they were actually capable of getting the jump on the rest of their MLB peers (or even be in the upper echelon), why did they miss last winter?

 

[simplicio]

I think Breslow's "there are lessons learned there as well" about identifying but not signing good targets kinda speaks to that. That makes me expect a bit more of an aggressive posture this winter.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I like Alex Speier, but that sounds like typical talking-head blather than any real insight into the FO's thinking. It's all fine and good to want to identify those guys, but if they were actually capable of getting the jump on the rest of their MLB peers (or even be in the upper echelon), why did they miss last winter?

Because they didn’t want to spend the money to get them plain and simple.

 

[Harry Hooper]

To quote Andrew Friedman: "If you're always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent."

To quote Craig Breslow: "The most valuable thing you can have is controllable starting pitching."

 

[Rasputin]

I don't have names. I've been too busy with things in other forums to pay as much attention to the rest of baseball as I'd like, but we need a top of the line starting pitcher and it's not coming from within the organization, so whatever trade there is for that, I want done.

Then I want us to fill whatever holes that may bring.

Then I want to play baseball.

 

[Auger34]

Because they didn’t want to spend the money to get them plain and simple.

Much easier to blame every single member of the media who dares say anything negative about the Sox than acknowledge that

 

[gammoseditor]

Because they didn’t want to spend the money to get them plain and simple.

The other possibility is they liked these guys but clearly underestimated them. This is certainly true about Imanaga.

 

[simplicio]

Much easier to blame every single member of the media who dares say anything negative about the Sox than acknowledge that

I have faith in Breslow not to hire a member of the media as a starting pitcher. Go do your whining in some other thread.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Name names and prices.

SP: Bryan Woo (and Mitch Haniger) from Seattle for Wilyer Abreu, Zach Penrod and Miguel Bleis. Seattle had one above average LHB in Luke Raley this year and he was a platoon bat with bad defense; Abreu can be an everyday improvement in the field and let them move Arozarena (also very bad D) to DH against RHP with Turner gone. Penrod is untested but has better pure stuff than either of their LHRP. Bleis is a very high upside lottery ticket. Take back Haniger and a whatever portion of his contract is needed to get the deal done, DFA to taste.

 

[Auger34]

I have faith in Breslow not to hire a member of the media as a starting pitcher. Go do your whining in some other thread.

I haven’t posted in a thread almost all season. I’m just commenting on the continuing bitching/undermining about media members reporting about what they’ve heard because people don’t like the information

 

[simplicio]

Your thoughts on what people think of the media are not the subject of this thread. This thread is about free agents and trade targets for the Red Sox this winter. Contributions on that topic are welcome.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I think Breslow's "there are lessons learned there as well" about identifying but not signing good targets kinda speaks to that. That makes me expect a bit more of an aggressive posture this winter.

I think failing to sign Imanaga, who they had clear interest in, who was a metric darling, and signed a fairly reasonable deal has to be killing them.

He made sense in all aspects and they ended up not getting him over what was most likely marginal dollars.

I think they will have more conviction in the free agent class

 

[mauf]

Much easier to blame every single member of the media who dares say anything negative about the Sox than acknowledge that

I haven’t posted in a thread almost all season. I’m just commenting on the continuing bitching/undermining about media members reporting about what they’ve heard because people don’t like the information

Meta-discussion of this sort belongs in Backwash, not on the Main Board. Thanks.

Your thoughts on what people think of the media are not the subject of this thread. This thread is about free agents and trade targets for the Red Sox this winter. Contributions on that topic are welcome.

You’re right, but in the future please use the “report post” function and leave moderation to the mods. Thanks.

 

[Mueller Lite]

SP: Bryan Woo from Seattle for Jarren Duran. I completely understand that this is an overpay according to BTV but I keep seeing packages centered around Wilyer Abreu and a couple other organizationally redundant prospects for Woo/ a Seattle starter and I wanted to put a simple offer out there that also hurts. By all means, if Wilyer, Grissom and Meidroth get a frontline starter then absolutely do that but I don’t think we’re living in reality thinking this. Something could also come back from Seattle in this or replace Duran with say Anthony. Don't center your ire around this one idea in my plan, it's just a bold idea/placeholder for a frontline starter that will probably hurt when/if it happens. A guy like Woo and his fastball is so incredibly important to get for this team and you have the ability to slot Roman Anthony into the outfield on opening day to offset the Duran loss with Campbell also starting the year in Boston or weeks away.

Offer O’Neil QO with most likely a rejection.

If O’Neil rejects, sign LF/RF/DH Teoscar Hernandez for 3/66m- Teoscar wanted to come to Fenway last year and you badly need right handed power to replace O’Neil. Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar would also be on the list as options to fill this slot. They’re switch hitters but their bats certainly play. Profar mashed lefties this year.

Re-Sign Chris Martin 1/10m- Bringing back Martin helps solidify your bullpen with Whitlock, Hendriks and Fulmer hopefully coming back from injuries and Criswell also being pushed to the bullpen.

LHRP: Sign Tanner Scott 3/54m - Here is your lefty ace/closer option. Your bullpen is pretty set and honestly quite deep with the retaining of Martin and addition of Scott.

Catcher: Sign Kyle Higashioka for 1 Year 2.5m - Teel shouldn’t be asked to break camp with Boston. Having a solid veteran catcher to give relief to Teel and Wong for now would fit nicely and Kyle’s bat has plenty for this role. When Teel comes up, he wouldn’t even have to be an automatic DFA with Wong’s positional flexibility.

Trade Masa for pitching pipeline pieces- This idea got complicated with the news that Masa could have shoulder surgery. It’s pretty glaring that the Red Sox don’t see Masa as a fit for this lineup. They want the DH spot to be much more flexible as a way to give rest to players and have it more of a rotating position. If they’re able to eat say 8 mil a year on his contract and get a couple of arms they like, I say do it. If he’s healthy, he can be a very useful bat for a contending team out of the DH spot or left field (regardless of what Boston believes defensively).

Overall, this plan would be a slight increase to payroll (about 5 mil without figuring in arb raises), so this certainly isn’t a “pie in the sky” plan.

 

[sean1562]

The mariners need middle infield help more than OF. They probably are asking for one of Campbell or Mayer if they are trading SP. Rodriguez had a down year but he is still their franchise player. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them go for someone like gleybar hoping he turns it around.

 

[opes]

Bryan Woo from Seattle for Jarren Duran
This might be one of the most out there trades I've seen in a long time. There's no way Woo could replace that value. Tatis jr for shields is the closest I cant think of.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

As a point of reference - here are some valuable assets and their relative worth via baseballtradevalues. I also added the closest valued pitchers to those players.

Duran - 78.4 (Cole Ragans, George Kirby, Logan Webb)
Anthony - 65.2 (nothing too close - worth a lot more than Brandon Pfaadt and Andrew Painter)
Mayer - 64.9
Bello - 49.3 (Catcher - Yainer Diaz)
Teel - 40 (Garrett Crochet)
Campbell - 38.6 (Gavin Williams)
Abreu - 28.7 (Brady Singer)
Bleis - 13.3 (Ryan Weathers)
Hamilton - 11.1 (Zack Eflin) Or a reliever like Alexis Diaz.

Guys listed as underwater
Trevor Story (-70.5)
Yoshida (-22.4)
Rafaela (-8.7) I believe they use fangraphs WAR. If they used bWAR he'd be positive value.

Tarik Skubal is listed at 91.4 - but I can't imagine the Tigers would float him now with their great run. Maybe they can pay him now.

Just using BBTV as a quick and easy barometer, if Mayer (64) Abreu (28) and Hamilton (11.1) could get one of Kirby (79) or Gilbert (not sure, but I'll guess around 70) that would make just so much sense for both teams. Though Seattle has said (as mentioned) that they're not going to trade from their SPs. I'd have to assume a deal of Mayer, Hamilton and Abreu would at least get them to think on it. Taking at face value @sean1562 assertion that they need MI help, I don't know enough about Seattle to comment on that one way or the other, so I'll assume that to be correct.

One random aside is I didn't expect (until looking it up) that Crochet has only 2 years remaining before free agency. That SHOULD bring down the cost a little bit with his injury history and desire for an extension. Not that I think Abreu and Bleis comes close to getting that done, but Abreu MIGHT be a reasonable center piece for them with this in mind, and I wouldn't have thought that when I assumed he had like 4 years left. Abreu, Perales, Hamilton and Arias they might consider. Maybe.

RHRP: Jeff Hoffman, 4/$56m. Great stuff, has been consistent for PHI the last two years and gotten a lot of high lev usage without gaudy save numbers to drive the price up. We need a late inning guy and I think he slips under the radar a bit compared to Tanner Scott.

This is an interesting idea to me. I generally believe in paying for a true closer and then just bargain basement shopping for the rest of the bullpen for a team with any manner of budget constraints, but with this being a somewhat short FA class on closers Jansen is someone I was advocating trying to re-sign recently, but he can seemingly be crossed way off the list now and assuming that Scott will be way out of the Sox price range. Ryan Pressly is another name I'd be interested in as someone that has proven an ability to close, and did so for a WS team two years ago. I'd personally prefer Pressly, but Hoffman is an intriguing choice also.



I really hope they are able to make a trade for a top of the rotation SP with term, but if a) they aren't willing to trade the necessary pieces or b) even with offering something like Mayer + Abreu aren't able to land someone of sufficient value (Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert type SPs), I don't think there is any realistic chance they end up winning a bid for someone like Burnes or Fried. As such, I'd like to see them bring back Eovaldi. Pretty good bet that you know (ish) what you're getting from him which is around 4 or 5 months worth of starts, a 6 week DL stint in there, but high level pitching and someone you're comfortable handing the ball to in G1 of a playoff series.

Even understanding his injury expectations, Eovaldi, Houck, Bello, Crawford as your top 4 with Priester, Fitts, Giolito and Criswell as your 5th starter and depth options is probably a rotation that can truly contend for all 3 WC spots.

 

[Max Power]

Breslow is in a tough spot this offseason. He and Bloom did a great job of collecting good players, but not great players. It makes it harder to improve the roster since anyone you bring in isn't going to be a clear upgrade. Going from Casas to Vlad is likely an upgrade, but it's possible it won't be. Using Duran as a trade chip and signing Soto is probably going to make the team better, or it might not if Duran can replicate his 2024. Even Yoshida is a good hitter who could have a great season next year, but maybe he won't and Teoscar would be a better fit. Breslow could do all the right things and still have the players he sent out do better than the ones he brings in.

 

[simplicio]

Ryan Pressly's option vested, so he has another year in Houston.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Ryan Pressly's option vested, so he has another year in Houston.

Thanks - I was going off the MLB free agents page (which they have as a mutual option) so I assumed he may not pick up his side of said mutual option in a market short on closers. If it's a vesting one and not mutual, certainly cross him off. Appreciate it.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Of course the concern about Duran is that this season was his Ellsbury and he already reverted to what he is ---his September batting line was garbage... he barely swipe any bags and even his defense- (I only watched maybe 5 games caveat)- appeared to go downhill. Maybe he was just exhausted after playing every game plus the All Star game?
But maybe he really is even if not exactly what he was during his great stretch this season, he's something in the middle of last year and this year, which is still a really, really good player. I don't know. I don't pay enough attention to other teams to even know who would be worth trading for..... the biggest FA pitchers this upcoming season have some serious red flags and will cost a butt ton. So trading becomes the focus and I'd guess right now that Duran would bring back the most. Glad it's not my call.

 

[bosockboy]

Sonny Gray is pretty much officially on the block. 2 year commitment.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think failing to sign Imanaga, who they had clear interest in, who was a metric darling, and signed a fairly reasonable deal has to be killing them.

He made sense in all aspects and they ended up not getting him over what was most likely marginal dollars.

I think they will have more conviction in the free agent class

Imanaga made so much sense for this team and the money was very reasonable. I certainly hope they learn from that experience.

 

[johnnywayback]

Sonny Gray is pretty much officially on the block. 2 year commitment.

If Yoshida has any value at all, it might be to a team run by Chaim Bloom that is looking to ditch a bad contract of its own.

 

[simplicio]

Gray is an interesting name. By the numbers I love him, but his prior stint in the AL East didn't go well. Maybe he's gotten past that? He's been consistently elite for a few years running. He's excelling without relying on velo (though that's been consistent too for 4 years now).

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

He’s signed for $35M next year, with a $30M club option / $5M buyout the year after. He can opt out and forfeit the buyout.

So it would be either 1/35, 1/40, or 2/65?

 

[cantor44]

Of course the concern about Duran is that this season was his Ellsbury and he already reverted to what he is ---his September batting line was garbage... he barely swipe any bags and even his defense- (I only watched maybe 5 games caveat)- appeared to go downhill. Maybe he was just exhausted after playing every game plus the All Star game?
But maybe he really is even if not exactly what he was during his great stretch this season, he's something in the middle of last year and this year, which is still a really, really good player. I don't know. I don't pay enough attention to other teams to even know who would be worth trading for..... the biggest FA pitchers this upcoming season have some serious red flags and will cost a butt ton. So trading becomes the focus and I'd guess right now that Duran would bring back the most. Glad it's not my call.

We don't really know exactly what Duran will be going forward. But It certainly isn't inevitable that he will be Ellsbury 2.0. Maybe he's got 3 more years like 2024. Maybe none. Maybe 5. Maybe he'll get better. What we do know is that he lead the team in WAR by a long shot in 2024. To me, he seems like a foundational piece. I think they're fools to get rid of him.
I hope they sign FA starting pitcher.
QO to TO
If he declines, find RHH bat to DH/1B/OF
Abreu seems like the most obvious trade bait for another arm.
Sign a reliever or two.
Yoshida for some lottery tickets.
(I know that's general - I'll offer names anon, just in meetings all day)

 

[nvalvo]

[Edited because I hit post prematurely...]

LHSP Garrett Crochet is the most obvious target. There is no one else who is 1) actually likely to be available, 2) is only 25, 3) had a 6+ K/BB ratio last season. BTV is dinging him (I think) for not throwing a bazillion innings in the second half, but that's a positive for an acquiring team. He threw a sensible work load — 32 starts for 146 IP — and there shouldn't be any limitations going forward. (His little midseason labor action was that he didn't want to get traded to a team who would push him hard into October *without an extension,* given that as it is he pitched 100 IP more than last year. I would want to give him an extension to align incentives.)

• He has three years of arb years remaining. As mentioned, it sounds like he's interested in an extension, and I would be looking to offer him one: say, 6/$140m with club options for seventh and eighth years at $30m. That locks him up through 31 with club options on his age-32 and -33 seasons.
• I think one of the Big Four is realistically required (there will be other bidders), and if we have to go there, Marcelo Mayer makes the most sense to me because of our depth at SS and his handedness. Then again, Chicago's top prospect, Colson Montgomery, is at least nominally a SS. But he had a pretty rough season as a very young dude in AAA and is probably a 3B anyway, so I'm not sure he would be an impediment.

Next, I would aim to acquire RHSP Bubba Chandler from the Pirates. He is in AAA, but pretty much ready: a top-30 guy on most of the national lists. The Pirates have a ton of good-to-great young pitching and need position players. We need young SP with options.

• Wilyer Abreu is the centerpiece here, joined by AA starting pitcher Connelly Early and AA infielder Mikey Romero.
• Chandler starts in AAA.

I trade David Hamilton and Wikelman Gonzalez to San Francisco for RHRP Ryan Walker, who is an unspeakably nasty sinker-slider guy — huge East-West movement in either direction; commands to both sides of the plate; basically no split. He's picked up saves in the last month or so after incumbent closer Camilo Doval struggled a bit. (Alternately, I would trade them a lesser piece for Doval, whose command struggles this year come after a couple great seasons.)

• Unless I'm missing someone, they could really use more middle infielders: they have good prospect Marco Luciano, the corpse of Thairo Estrada, and a bunch of 27-year-old post-prospects. They also have insane bullpen depth.
• Hamilton is a LHH, and we really need RHH in those middle infield spots with our overall balance. Luciano and most of the 27-year-old post-prospects are RHH.
• Ryan Walker is prearb, and look at his baseballsavant page.

I drop 3/$40m on LHRP Tanner Scott.

IN: Crochet, Chandler, Walker, Scott; OUT: Mayer, Abreu, Early, Romero, Hamilton, Gonzalez.

Offer QOs to Pivetta and O'Neill; assume they go elsewhere. If everyone is healthy (they won't be), you deal Giolito at the deadline for prospects and promote Chandler. No additions to the position-player side except from within: pick up Refsnyder's option, promote Campbell and Anthony. Teel starts in AAA.

Spoiler: The resulting depth chart.

Starters:

Boston
1 Crochet L
2 Houck R
3 Bello R
4 Crawford R
5 Giolito R

Depth
Chandler, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, Perales (IL — maybe back in August?)

Relievers:

Boston
CL Walker R
SU Hendriks R
SU Scott L
SU Slaten R
MI Fulmer R
MI Bernardino L
One-time-through-the-order guy (with a lead) Whitlock R
One-time-through-the-order guy (without a lead) Winckowski R

Depth
Guerrero, Weissert, Penrod, Kelly, Horn, Campbell, Booser, Shugart, Jacques, Mills, Mata?

Position Players (40-man)
Catchers: Wong, Gasper, Teel
Infielders: Story, Devers, Casas, Grissom, Sogard, Meidroth, Valdez
IF/OF: Rafaela, González, Campbell
OF/DH: Duran, Refsnyder, Anthony, Yoshida

This is a pretty small position player 40-man contingent, which should help us keep a million pitchers over the offseason. We'll add AAA depth at OF and C in Spring Training, after we can 60-day IL some injured pitchers.

 

[moondog80]

He’s signed for $35M next year, with a $30M club option / $5M buyout the year after. He can opt out and forfeit the buyout.

So it would be either 1/35, 1/40, or 2/65?

Cot's says it's 10 this year, 25 next year, and 35 in 2026 (with the same club option).

But either way, isn't the tax number more relevant? 25 per year in this case?

 

[simplicio]

LHSP Garrett Crochet is the most obvious target. There is no one else who is 1) actually likely to be available, 2) is only 25, 3) had a 6+ K/BB ratio last season. BTV is dinging him (I think) for not throwing a bazillion innings in the second half, but that's a positive for an acquiring team. He threw a sensible work load — 32 starts for 146 IP — and there shouldn't be any limitations going forward. (His little midseason labor action was that he didn't want to get traded to a team who would push him hard into October *without an extension,* given that as it is he pitched 100 IP more than last year. I would want to give him an extension to align incentives.)

• He has three years of arb years remaining. As mentioned, it sounds like he's interested in an extension, and I would be looking to offer him one: say, 6/$140m with club options for seventh and eighth years at $30m. That locks him up through 31 with club options on his age-32 and -33 seasons.
• I think one of the Big Four is realistically required (there will be other bidders), and if we have to go there, Marcelo Mayer makes the most sense to me because of our depth at SS and his handedness. Then again, Chicago's top prospect, Colson Montgomery, is at least nominally a SS. But he had a pretty rough season as a very young dude in AAA and is probably a 3B anyway, so I'm not sure he would be an impediment.

Next, I would aim to acquire RHSP Bubba Chandler from the Pirates. He is in AAA, but pretty much ready: a top-30 guy on most of the national lists. The Pirates have a ton of good-to-great young pitching and need position players. We need young SP with options.

• Wilyer Abreu is the centerpiece here, joined by AA starting pitcher Connelly Early and AA infielder Mikey Romero.
• Chandler starts in AAA.

I trade David Hamilton and Wikelman Gonzalez to San Francisco for RHRP Ryan Walker, who is an unspeakably nasty sinker-slider guy — huge East-West movement in either direction; commands to both sides of the plate; basically no split. He's picked up saves in the last month or so after incumbent closer Camilo Doval struggled a bit. (Alternately, I would trade them a lesser piece for Doval, whose command struggles this year come after a couple great seasons.)

• Unless I'm missing someone, they could really use more middle infielders: they have good prospect Marco Luciano, the corpse of Thairo Estrada, and a bunch of 27-year-old post-prospects. They also have insane bullpen depth.
• Hamilton is a LHH, and we really need RHH in those middle infield spots with our overall balance. Luciano and most of the 27-year-old post-prospects are RHH.
• Ryan Walker is prearb, and look at his baseballsavant page.

I drop 3/$40m on LHRP Tanner Scott.

IN: Crochet, Chandler, Walker, Scott; OUT: Mayer, Abreu, Early, Romero, Hamilton, Gonzalez.

No additions to the position player side except from within.

Spoiler: The resulting depth chart.

Starters:

Boston
1 Crochet L
2 Houck R
3 Bello R
4 Crawford R
5 Giolito R

Depth
Chandler
Priester
Fitts
Dobbins
Perales (IL — maybe back in August?)

Relievers:

Boston
CL Walker R
SU Hendriks R
SU Scott L
SU Slaten R
MI Fulmer R
MI Bernardino L
One-time-through-the-order guy (with a lead) Whitlock R
One-time-through-the-order guy (without a lead) Winckowski R

Depth
Guerrero
Weissert
Penrod
Kelly
Horn
Campbell
Booser
Shugart
Jacques
Mills

Position Players:

Crochet only has two years of control left. I like him fine but I think he's also a pretty high injury risk. He definitely had some pretty ugly months this season too. I'd much rather deal with the M's or Pirates and get someone with 3+ years of control, especially if we're trading from our top 4.

I think Tanner Scott is going to command 4 or maybe 5 years.

 

[chrisfont9]

I think failing to sign Imanaga, who they had clear interest in, who was a metric darling, and signed a fairly reasonable deal has to be killing them.

He made sense in all aspects and they ended up not getting him over what was most likely marginal dollars.

I think they will have more conviction in the free agent class

It's a miss, for sure, but the uncertainty around a Japanese pitcher entering his age 30 season is not nothing. Also the stats were a little gaudy, and translated to a 3.72 FIP and 3.1 bWAR. We'll see what he does next. But yeah, he's a solid starter at a minimum.

 

[BaseballJones]

Gray is an interesting name.

Meh. I think "Gray" is an uninteresting name...pretty bland. YMMV

 

[chawson]

Because they didn’t want to spend the money to get them plain and simple.

IDK, I think some of this determination had to do with player talent or risk evaluation. And they were justified — sure seems like they were right to not sign Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Hicks, Marcus Stroman, and others we were clamoring for here. Yamamoto was hurt for two-thirds of his first year in the majors.

Setting aside the like, moral(?) dimension of this issue for you, who would you want the Red Sox to have signed as of now? I don't think Lugo has anywhere near as good a year in this park, and in front of this defense.

I think failing to sign Imanaga, who they had clear interest in, who was a metric darling, and signed a fairly reasonable deal has to be killing them.

He made sense in all aspects and they ended up not getting him over what was most likely marginal dollars.

Maybe? Since May 29th, Imanaga has the 2nd-highest HR/9 in MLB (behind Crawford). He had a really good first year and is probably the one starter of the crop that I'd like to see in the rotation right now. But I think he's a lot closer to the Crawford/Pivetta/Giolito cluster than he is a 1A or 1B ace.

I like him, curious to see how he ages. He doesn't throw especially hard.

 

[chrisfont9]

Bryan Woo from Seattle for Jarren Duran
This might be one of the most out there trades I've seen in a long time. There's no way Woo could replace that value. Tatis jr for shields is the closest I cant think of.

And yet the Mariners will absolutely reject this trade because of the extreme scarcity of high end, controllable young pitching and the availability of good outfielders. No way can you get equivalent WAR trading hitters for pitchers, unless it's a guy in his walk year. You can expect a 2x or 3x overpay in terms of WAR value. Maybe more depending on controllability.

 

[chrisfont9]

Maybe? Since May 29th, Imanaga has the 2nd-highest HR/9 in MLB (behind Crawford). He had a really good first year and is probably the one starter of the crop that I'd like to see in the rotation right now. But I think he's a lot closer to the Crawford/Pivetta/Giolito cluster than he is a 1A or 1B ace.

I like him, curious to see how he ages. He doesn't throw especially hard.

Huh, thanks for that. This was the concern going into free agency, right? That's my recollection.

 

[simplicio]

Huh, thanks for that. This was the concern going into free agency, right? That's my recollection.

Yeah, he was unusually homer-prone for an NPB guy trying to make the jump, had about 3 times the HR over there as your typical successful Japanese FA. Last year he gave up 18 to Yamamoto's 2 lol.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Meh. I think "Gray" is an uninteresting name...pretty bland. YMMV

Is there anyone out there with the last name "Beige"? Or "Taupe"?

 

[BigSoxFan]

Yeah, he was unusually homer-prone for an NPB guy trying to make the jump, had about 3 times the HR over there as your typical successful Japanese FA. Last year he gave up 18 to Yamamoto's 2 lol.

He did limit walks well though. Only 1.5/9. Here are the Sox SP this year:

Bello 3.5/9
Crawford 2.5/9
Pivetta 2.2/9
Houck 2.4/9
Crowell 2.8/9

If that walk rate holds, he figures to be a good SP for a few years even if the HR rate remains problematic.

 

[ookami7m]

Imanaga made so much sense for this team and the money was very reasonable. I certainly hope they learn from that experience.

Wasn't it reported that Imanaga turned down more money to go to the Cubs?

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

As a point of reference - here are some valuable assets and their relative worth via baseballtradevalues. I also added the closest valued pitchers to those players.

Duran - 78.4 (Cole Ragans, George Kirby, Logan Webb)
Anthony - 65.2 (nothing too close - worth a lot more than Brandon Pfaadt and Andrew Painter)
Mayer - 64.9
Bello - 49.3 (Catcher - Yainer Diaz)
Teel - 40 (Garrett Crochet)
Campbell - 38.6 (Gavin Williams)
Abreu - 28.7 (Brady Singer)
Bleis - 13.3 (Ryan Weathers)
Hamilton - 11.1 (Zack Eflin) Or a reliever like Alexis Diaz.

Guys listed as underwater
Trevor Story (-70.5)
Yoshida (-22.4)
Rafaela (-8.7) I believe they use fangraphs WAR. If they used bWAR he'd be positive value.

Tarik Skubal is listed at 91.4 - but I can't imagine the Tigers would float him now with their great run. Maybe they can pay him now.

Not sure if this was a wishlist of guys the Sox should trade for but the Royals made the playoffs slightly ahead of schedule with their own rebuild-while-competitive-bridge process that the Sox purported to be doing with Chaim Bloom through now. I don't think Ragans and Singer are on the board.

Ragans they got for a bag of balls from Texas, he leveled up as their ace over the past 18 months, and has arb years through 2029. Singer isn't FA eligible until 2027 and had his 2nd best season with his highest IP total. They also just found who is likely their "set it and forget it" closer in Lucas Erceg - who's cheap until 2029.

I suspect this winter KC's looking for major-leaguers and veteran guys to shore up the bullpen, hit on a right handed power bat unless Nelson Velasquez figures it out, and upgrade KC's bench of role players above Adam Frazier, Garrett Hampson, Paul DeJong, Tommy Pham, Robby Grossman, and Yuli Gurriel. Of that bunch only Frazier has a team option so he may come back.

2024 was KC playing with house money, and maybe the window came a year earlier than expected. Either way I don't think JJ Picollo is entertaining calls for 2/5 of his young, cost-controlled starters while KC trends upward - for prospects.

I suspect there are quite a few FA's on the Sox they'd be in on - Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, O'Neill are all Piccolo-esque moves on paper based on this past hot stove season (Lugo, Wacha, Renfroe), and he wouldn't have to give up much (barring QO's) to make the team better.