Tanner Houck : What is he?

E5 Yaz

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The debate over the decision to remove him from Game 1 Tuesday is all over the place -- literally and figuratively -- so why not have a place to discuss it in one place?

I dredged up the name of Casey Fossum in a game thread this week ... a guy who could look like gangbusters for 4-5 innings, then get hammered if left in too long.

Houck, we hope, is better than Fossum, but what if he isn't? Does Houck's current two-pitch repertoire destine him to be more effective as a weapon as a late-inning reliever?

The "third time through" data is skinny at the major league level, but there is something to it ... because clearly the organization knows more about his development than we do.

From BRef, his major league appearances as a starter:

First time through: .179/.233/.226/.460 ... 8.25 K/W
Second time: .227/.306/.320/.626 ... 3.0 K/W
Third time: .333/.412/.600/1.012 ... 1.0 K/W

There's also this

.341/.449/.488/.937 ... 1.88 K/W for pitches 51-75

It can be reasonably argued that he deserved the fifth inning the other night; but it can't be defended that that inning would have turned out well. We just don't know. The only thing we do know is that Whitlock and Taylor spit the bit.

So, how to proceed with Houck? Let him go deeper against weaker teams? This was, after all, the third time he'd faced the Yankees in a month, so they had his timing down.

If he can't develop a third pitch, do they gradually make the transition to a Daniel Bard path and use him in the late innings?
 

BaseballJones

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Fangraphs says this about Houck's pitch mix:

2020:
- 35.5% fastball (92.1 mph average, which includes his "sinker" - see below)
- 35.5% slider
- 26.8% sinker
- 2.3% split-finger (his changeup, I think)

2021:
- 38.3% fastball (94.1 mph average, which includes his "sinker" - see below)
- 35.9% slider
- 19.8% sinker
- 5.9% split-finger

Now it seems that they separate his four-seamer from his "sinker", or two-seamer here, because elsewhere they mash them together. This mashing together is reflected in his overall fastball velocity. But really, Houck throws primarily three pitches, plus an occasional fourth. Four-seam fastball (highest velocity pitch), two-seam fastball that sinks down and away to lefties, his wicked slider, and a rare splitter, or changeup.

Ideally, he'd throw the changeup more, assuming he gets better at throwing it. But a guy with this pitch mix absolutely can be a successful starter in the majors.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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The debate over the decision to remove him from Game 1 Tuesday is all over the place -- literally and figuratively -- so why not have a place to discuss it in one place?

I dredged up the name of Casey Fossum in a game thread this week ... a guy who could look like gangbusters for 4-5 innings, then get hammered if left in too long.

Houck, we hope, is better than Fossum, but what if he isn't? Does Houck's current two-pitch repertoire destine him to be more effective as a weapon as a late-inning reliever?

The "third time through" data is skinny at the major league level, but there is something to it ... because clearly the organization knows more about his development than we do.

From BRef, his major league appearances as a starter:

First time through: .179/.233/.226/.460 ... 8.25 K/W
Second time: .227/.306/.320/.626 ... 3.0 K/W
Third time: .333/.412/.600/1.012 ... 1.0 K/W

There's also this

.341/.449/.488/.937 ... 1.88 K/W for pitches 51-75

It can be reasonably argued that he deserved the fifth inning the other night; but it can't be defended that that inning would have turned out well. We just don't know. The only thing we do know is that Whitlock and Taylor spit the bit.

So, how to proceed with Houck? Let him go deeper against weaker teams? This was, after all, the third time he'd faced the Yankees in a month, so they had his timing down.

If he can't develop a third pitch, do they gradually make the transition to a Daniel Bard path and use him in the late innings?

Too much SSS to really make a decision about any of this. He needs to slowly brought out "a third time" with a quick hook ready. Yes... a very good third pitch would go a long ways in helping that, but a good strategy by Plawecki or Vazquez or Cora to get deeper into games helps. Good pitching strategy will usually hold stuff back until later in the game so that on that "third time through", they're looking at a different attack.

I still think he's going to be a VERY good STARTER. A Starter. Probably best for the bullpen (if they make the playoffs) but then moving into a starting role to start '22. If he can't work out by mid season '22 then sure... move him into a Whitlock role afterwards
 

E5 Yaz

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Ideally, he'd throw the changeup more, assuming he gets better at throwing it. But a guy with this pitch mix absolutely can be a successful starter in the majors.
You'd like to think so ... but throwing it a suitable percentage of the time doesn't mean that those are quality pitches.
 

BaseballJones

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You'd like to think so ... but throwing it a suitable percentage of the time doesn't mean that those are quality pitches.
For sure. I do think his four seamer is a plus pitch, and his slider is a total wipeout slider. He's obviously a good pitcher - or I should say, he's BEEN a good pitcher - at the major league level. In 51.2 innings he's got a career era of 2.26, whip of 1.06, and k/9 of 11.7.

He might end up being better suited for a bullpen role, but that might come down to (a) can he throw a better changeup, and (b) will Cora allow him to go deeper into games.
 

johnnywayback

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What is he? Most likely, he is what Garrett Whitlock has been this year: a weapon out of the bullpen who can go multiple innings. A very useful player, especially in the age of five-inning starters. I will happily take that, and, honestly, I might even prefer to take that right now instead of hoping he can develop that third pitch.
 

YTF

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What is he? Most likely, he is what Garrett Whitlock has been this year: a weapon out of the bullpen who can go multiple innings. A very useful player, especially in the age of five-inning starters. I will happily take that, and, honestly, I might even prefer to take that right now instead of hoping he can develop that third pitch.
To piggy back off this...Now that we have two new multiple innings guys in the pen (not ideal, but they're there) and Cora's reluctant to go three times through the line up with Houck, could/should Whitlock open a game with Houck following to see how that might work during this "soft" spot in the schedule?
 

cantor44

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Well, somethings gotta give. Either he pitches after an opener (and so comes into a game first facing the bottom third of the order, and maybe, can at least see the 6-9 guys three times through thereby extending him a bit), OR, they let him start going longer into games to see if he can be a more effective starter - see if he's able to endure the rigors of third time through, OR, they put in the bullpen ...

Cuz just facing 18 guys ain't cutting it ...
 

absintheofmalaise

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I haven't seen much posted from Brooks Baseball on here lately, but it's an excellent resource for almost anything pitcher related. ZI don't have time to look for more info right now, but this is a great rabbit hole to go down. Here's some info on pitch usage:

43570
43571
43572
43573
 

RobertS975

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Not to say that he cannot evolve further, but Houck is not fresh out of high school. The Blue Jays drafted him in 2014, but he decided to go to the University of Missouri. And he was drafted by the Sox in 2017, eventually making the big league debut in the train wreck 2020 season. He was impressive last year (SSS) and in my opinion, impressive again this season. But he's had a fair amount of college and professional coaching... maybe what we see is what we get. A very serviceable major league pitcher, perhaps never to be an ace.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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To piggy back off this...Now that we have two new multiple innings guys in the pen (not ideal, but they're there) and Cora's reluctant to go three times through the line up with Houck, could/should Whitlock open a game with Houck following to see how that might work during this "soft" spot in the schedule?
That's not a bad idea if they want to experiment, but why Whitlock? Why not someone like Robles or Davis who are clearly Cora's choice for use when the team is behind? I'd rather burn one of them early in a game. Cora has said they're at the stage where they're willing to give Whitlock back to back appearances, so I'd rather see him in the Ottavino/Taylor/Barnes cadre closing out games.
 

JCizzle

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Not to say that he cannot evolve further, but Houck is not fresh out of high school. The Blue Jays drafted him in 2014, but he decided to go to the University of Missouri. And he was drafted by the Sox in 2017, eventually making the big league debut in the train wreck 2020 season. He was impressive last year (SSS) and in my opinion, impressive again this season. But he's had a fair amount of college and professional coaching... maybe what we see is what we get. A very serviceable major league pitcher, perhaps never to be an ace.
To build off your point, I've always been curious why his minor league numbers are so pedestrian? I know these aren't advanced stats or anything, but he has a career 4.17 ERA in the minors with a ~1.4 WHIP. In my opinion, that doesn't match the eye test of his ability as a pitcher. At the end of the day I'm obviously pleased he is finding more success in the MLB.
 

Cesar Crespo

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To build off your point, I've always been curious why his minor league numbers are so pedestrian? I know these aren't advanced stats or anything, but he has a career 4.17 ERA in the minors with a ~1.4 WHIP. In my opinion, that doesn't match the eye test of his ability as a pitcher. At the end of the day I'm obviously pleased he is finding more success in the MLB.
Probably because the Sox wanted him to work on certain things and weren't all that concerned about his results. He also moved to the bullpen in 2019 and something clicked for him. He started to strike guys out. It carried over when he moved back to the rotation in 2019.
 

Jason Bae

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Probably because the Sox wanted him to work on certain things and weren't all that concerned about his results. He also moved to the bullpen in 2019 and something clicked for him. He started to strike guys out. It carried over when he moved back to the rotation in 2019.
Didn't they also mess around with his delivery before he went to the bullpen?
 

Rovin Romine

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To build off your point, I've always been curious why his minor league numbers are so pedestrian? I know these aren't advanced stats or anything, but he has a career 4.17 ERA in the minors with a ~1.4 WHIP. In my opinion, that doesn't match the eye test of his ability as a pitcher. At the end of the day I'm obviously pleased he is finding more success in the MLB.
Per https://www.soxprospects.com/players/houck-tanner.htm He was a two pitch pitcher in college, then the Sox tinkered with his pitches, instead of building on what he already had.

In 2020 he scrapped the change they tried to teach him and went to the splitter.

Ideally, he'd throw the changeup more, assuming he gets better at throwing it. But a guy with this pitch mix absolutely can be a successful starter in the majors.
The splitter will probably do the trick of keeping them honest.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=b77a2d9e-ad24-4ed8-bc33-5ef65adc8c16
 

vadertime

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If his stats are that bad 3rd time through, than he can 't be counted on to be a SP long term. And if that's the case, I say make him a setup man/closer.
 

YTF

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That's not a bad idea if they want to experiment, but why Whitlock? Why not someone like Robles or Davis who are clearly Cora's choice for use when the team is behind? I'd rather burn one of them early in a game. Cora has said they're at the stage where they're willing to give Whitlock back to back appearances, so I'd rather see him in the Ottavino/Taylor/Barnes cadre closing out games.
It doesn't have to be Whitlock. The only reason I mentioned him is because over all he's been pretty dependable, has been use in mufti-inning situations and they had been steering clear of using him more than a couple of times a week. So I'm thinking why not let one of those appearances be used to put Houck in a good position to perhaps pitch into the 8th inning. My concern with Robles and Austin ATM would be that burning one of them early in the game might also lead to burning an appearance by Houck. Perhaps this pen as currently constructed doesn't afford the option of an opener for Houck.
 

scottyno

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Again, too much SSS in the majors. Saying this implies you don't think the organization knew anything about him prior to his getting to Boston
Yeah, I'm not sure if you can find minor league 3rd time through the order data, but he's made 6 starts and thrown 21 innings in Worcester this year, so safe to say he didn't face many if any guys 3 times there. The last time he probably faced a decent amount was in 2019 in Portland when he threw 83 innings in 17 games (15 starts) and he wasn't particularly good there overall.
 

Just a bit outside

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Houck is currently a twice through the order pitcher at most. You can start him and hope you get 5-6 innings or you can make him a reliever and hope his stuff plays up and he can be dominant. On this team I would use him as a starter as he is better than the other starter options.

In the future you hope he can develop a third pitcher that allows him to become a #2-3 starter but he isn’t that at the moment.
 

nvalvo

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If his stats are that bad 3rd time through, than he can 't be counted on to be a SP long term. And if that's the case, I say make him a setup man/closer.
Houck is currently a twice through the order pitcher at most. You can start him and hope you get 5-6 innings or you can make him a reliever and hope his stuff plays up and he can be dominant. On this team I would use him as a starter as he is better than the other starter options.

In the future you hope he can develop a third pitcher that allows him to become a #2-3 starter but he isn’t that at the moment.
I've been beating the drum for Houck's relief risk, but I think you have to let him try to turn these lineups over again. He has this splitter — does it work? Only one way to find out.

And this is the stuff that we give up by trying overhard to contend too early. We need to learn what we have — with him, with Dalbec, with Cordero, with Arroyo, with Duran. We need to figure out how many of these guys are part of our next core.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The Sox are not a terribly young team, though, and a lot of the current core could be gone in a few years, or will need to be re-upped at more $$$. Granted there should be ample money this off-season to upgrade the existing core (which really may only lose JD, right?) but what do you mean by “trying over hard to contend too early”? Are their examples of that? I feel as though the lack of trades and current roster are actually the opposite of this. There are no young players being blocked by soon to be discarded vets.

What do we expect a ‘23 team, for example, to look like? Bogaerts, Devers, Duran, Casas, Verdugo, Sale, Whitlock, Houck, Seabold, maybe Pivetta? what else? I feel like the feeling that a team, even a good one, will be even better in a few years is perpetual.

I would imagine that most of that team will be comprised of players not in the system yet, and will have to involve Bloom nailing some trades and FA’s.
 

Apisith

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Man, if Houck gives you 5IP/2ER every game for 30 starts he’s a 3 win player. He would be one of the most valuable assets in today’s game given that he’s cost controlled for another 5 years. By that, I mean to say he would be a top 50 trade value guy.

Rosters have expanded, teams are carrying more pitchers than ever before. Getting 5 innings per start is good if the innings are high-quality, which given what Houck has shown us, is likely to be.

It would be nice if he developed a true third pitch because if he did, he would be a #1 starter, given how good his current two pitches are. But isn’t that a bit of an unrealistic expectation? Even if the splitter is just a show-me pitch that helps him get into the 6th inning against poorer teams, the idea that he would be more valuable in the bullpen is a bit ridiculous.
 

scottyno

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The Sox are not a terribly young team, though, and a lot of the current core could be gone in a few years, or will need to be re-upped at more $$$. Granted there should be ample money this off-season to upgrade the existing core (which really may only lose JD, right?) but what do you mean by “trying over hard to contend too early”? Are their examples of that? I feel as though the lack of trades and current roster are actually the opposite of this. There are no young players being blocked by soon to be discarded vets.

What do we expect a ‘23 team, for example, to look like? Bogaerts, Devers, Duran, Casas, Verdugo, Sale, Whitlock, Houck, Seabold, maybe Pivetta? what else? I feel like the feeling that a team, even a good one, will be even better in a few years is perpetual.
Renfroe, Barnes, Arroyo, hopefully Downs and or Wong
 

Cesar Crespo

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Man, if Houck gives you 5IP/2ER every game for 30 starts he’s a 3 win player. He would be one of the most valuable assets in today’s game given that he’s cost controlled for another 5 years. By that, I mean to say he would be a top 50 trade value guy.

Rosters have expanded, teams are carrying more pitchers than ever before. Getting 5 innings per start is good if the innings are high-quality, which given what Houck has shown us, is likely to be.

It would be nice if he developed a true third pitch because if he did, he would be a #1 starter, given how good his current two pitches are. But isn’t that a bit of an unrealistic expectation? Even if the splitter is just a show-me pitch that helps him get into the 6th inning against poorer teams, the idea that he would be more valuable in the bullpen is a bit ridiculous.
I always wondered if there were a healthy way to have a BP arm accumulate 150 ip every year. Piggy back starting would be an option, but most likely they'd only go 4 ip every 5 days.
 

pokey_reese

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He might be a two times through the order guy, or he might be a three times through the order guy. We don't have evidence either way, and shouldn't try to twist the small amount of data that we do have to support either position. The only way to find out is going to be to let guys face him three times, period. These sample sizes are absurdly small, and while we can expect that teams might have better data for the minor league level, I wouldn't count on it being ideal, and we also have to realize that there is no real data for 2020, and his sum total of innings in the minors wasn't that big, so it very likely wouldn't be enough to make that decision regardless with any kind of scientific basis.
 

Apisith

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One reference point for me is always Glasnow, who is a two-pitch pitcher with both pitches being really, really good.

In 2019 Glasnow averaged 5 innings per start with an ERA of 1.78 (FIP of 2.26). He went 12 starts, 60 innings in total. He was worth 2.5 wins.

In 2020 he pitched 57 innings over 11 starts, averaging 5.2 innings per start with an ERA of 4.08. He was worth 0.7 wins.

Over a full season of 30-33 starts, Glasnow would be worth between 2-7 wins.

If Houck can just slightly overperform Glasnow’s 2020, he would be extremely valuable. There’s nothing wrong with being a two-pitch pitcher who can only go 5 innings per start.
 

BaseballJones

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How times have changed. Remember when Daisuke "only" could get into the 6th inning and the complaint was that he wasn't giving them enough innings, and was taxing the bullpen too much?

Well...if he were around today, he'd basically be the ace of a staff.
 

Rovin Romine

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The flip side to all this is that the more pitchers one uses in a game, the greater chance you put someone in there who is having an off day.
 

YTF

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Man, if Houck gives you 5IP/2ER every game for 30 starts he’s a 3 win player. He would be one of the most valuable assets in today’s game given that he’s cost controlled for another 5 years. By that, I mean to say he would be a top 50 trade value guy.

Rosters have expanded, teams are carrying more pitchers than ever before. Getting 5 innings per start is good if the innings are high-quality, which given what Houck has shown us, is likely to be.

It would be nice if he developed a true third pitch because if he did, he would be a #1 starter, given how good his current two pitches are. But isn’t that a bit of an unrealistic expectation? Even if the splitter is just a show-me pitch that helps him get into the 6th inning against poorer teams, the idea that he would be more valuable in the bullpen is a bit ridiculous.
Other than Houck's ability, there will need to be two other components to make that happen. First is a VERY strong bullpen which the Sox had exhibited for much of the season. The other is at least two (ideally 3) other starters who can routinely get through 6 innings or more to lessen the burden on the pen which The Sox haven't had and IMO has led to the recent concerns of what was previously a strength.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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How times have changed. Remember when Daisuke "only" could get into the 6th inning and the complaint was that he wasn't giving them enough innings, and was taxing the bullpen too much?

Well...if he were around today, he'd basically be the ace of a staff.
Well I know it’s not a great stat and isn’t predictive… but ERA still tells a good story. Combine that with how the shittiest bullpen arm these days is probably as good as as your 3rd best BP arm only 10 years ago, and Dice would still be a middling starter today.
I’d take him over Pivetta though-
 

JimD

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The Sox are not a terribly young team, though, and a lot of the current core could be gone in a few years, or will need to be re-upped at more $$$. Granted there should be ample money this off-season to upgrade the existing core (which really may only lose JD, right?) but what do you mean by “trying over hard to contend too early”? Are their examples of that? I feel as though the lack of trades and current roster are actually the opposite of this. There are no young players being blocked by soon to be discarded vets.

What do we expect a ‘23 team, for example, to look like? Bogaerts, Devers, Duran, Casas, Verdugo, Sale, Whitlock, Houck, Seabold, maybe Pivetta? what else? I feel like the feeling that a team, even a good one, will be even better in a few years is perpetual.

I would imagine that most of that team will be comprised of players not in the system yet, and will have to involve Bloom nailing some trades and FA’s.
The 'too early' part of 'Contending too early' doesn't have to refer only to younger players, though - it can also refer to a team that has started to retool its roster but the process isn't far enough along to justify making short-term moves to improve current standing at the potential expense of the long-term plan. Which some of us would argue is the current state of the Red Sox (and which is possibly Chaim Bloom's opinion as well, given his apparent unwillingness to overpay at the deadline).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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That’s fair, but aren’t teams always retooling their rosters? If you wait for example, until Casas / Duran / Mayer are core guys, suddenly some of the guys who are core now are not on the roster, or not as impactful. I guess it’s just a constant process and I’m not convinced that the 2023 Red Sox will be in a better competitive position that the 2021 Red Sox are, though I certainly hope so.

I would imagine only about 1/3 of the guys on this years roster will be on the team then…so the teams position will largely be based on those 2/3 of guys who aren’t in the roster (either in the system or yet to be acquired).

I guess the 2022 and beyond roster threads can wait until we see how this season shakes out!
 

Cesar Crespo

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That’s fair, but aren’t teams always retooling their rosters? If you wait for example, until Casas / Duran / Mayer are core guys, suddenly some of the guys who are core now are not on the roster, or not as impactful. I guess it’s just a constant process and I’m not convinced that the 2023 Red Sox will be in a better competitive position that the 2021 Red Sox are, though I certainly hope so.

I would imagine only about 1/3 of the guys on this years roster will be on the team then…so the teams position will largely be based on those 2/3 of guys who aren’t in the roster (either in the system or yet to be acquired).

I guess the 2022 and beyond roster threads can wait until we see how this season shakes out!
Would it be better to have 1/3 of the roster gone and no Casas/Duran/Mayer, so the team's position will largely be based on having a depleted roster and no farm?

I don't think this is the team you go all in on. If they win a WS in 2021, it will be because of a lot of good fortune. Not because of any trades or lack thereof.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Sure it’s better to have prospects than not, but in three years, a bunch of the now core guys will be gone or not as good as they are (or more expensive), so you’ll need the prospects to be good and to supplement the core via free agency / trades. Thinking your team is going to be better in two years than it is now is likely an opinion shared by most organizations; and many will be wrong, obviously.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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That’s fair, but aren’t teams always retooling their rosters? If you wait for example, until Casas / Duran / Mayer are core guys, suddenly some of the guys who are core now are not on the roster, or not as impactful. I guess it’s just a constant process and I’m not convinced that the 2023 Red Sox will be in a better competitive position that the 2021 Red Sox are, though I certainly hope so.

I would imagine only about 1/3 of the guys on this years roster will be on the team then…so the teams position will largely be based on those 2/3 of guys who aren’t in the roster (either in the system or yet to be acquired).

I guess the 2022 and beyond roster threads can wait until we see how this season shakes out!
As far as impact players in '23.... the current players on the current '21 roster that will still be in their prime in '23: Verdugo, Devers, X. Everyone else is borderline or will be gone, no? If they resign X... then the current "core" players are all still together when (if) the younger players can start to make an impact, along with a flexible payroll to bring in another "core" guy either through trade (which currently still seems unlikely) or FA signing (more likely... but more costly and more of potential weight if it falls apart).
Bloom really has positioned the team well for the next 2-7 years assuming he extends X and extends Devers, which I'm expecting after this season.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Bogaerts is making $20M now, Devers less than $5M and Verdugo under $600k.

Bogaerts will opt out and will surely look at Lindor’s deal as a comp- he makes $34M per. I’d imagine extending Devers is going to be close to $30M annually, right? If you go to arb with Verdugo it will be at least $5M or so?

So those three guys that are making $25M combined today are suddenly making close to 3x that in a few years (and X will be 30 by then). Granted you save money after this year with the expiring of Pedroia / Price, Ottavino, Richards, etc. but the increase in these guys salaries makes team building a little more complicated and you really need the next group of prospects to be similar to what we got out of Bogaerts, Devers, and Co. At that age.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Sure it’s better to have prospects than not, but in three years, a bunch of the now core guys will be gone or not as good as they are (or more expensive), so you’ll need the prospects to be good and to supplement the core via free agency / trades. Thinking your team is going to be better in two years than it is now is likely an opinion shared by most organizations; and many will be wrong, obviously.
Even if they are worse in 2023, it doesn't mean they should have made trades in 2021. You make trades in 2021 only if you believe the team was a serious contender. Judging by recent events, they are not and standing pat was correct. At least IMO. If others want to think another player or 2 would change the trajectory, we disagree.

I'd rather the team not mortgage any of the future on this team. I'd have been ok with moving Downs or Jimenez in a deal that involved a player with control beyond this year but the best prospect I would have moved for a rental is probably Aldo Ramirez.

The only way I see this team winning is with incredibly good fortune.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Bogaerts is making $20M now, Devers less than $5M and Verdugo under $600k.

Bogaerts will opt out and will surely look at Lindor’s deal as a comp- he makes $34M per. I’d imagine extending Devers is going to be close to $30M annually, right? If you go to arb with Verdugo it will be at least $5M or so?

So those three guys that are making $25M combined today are suddenly making close to 3x that in a few years (and X will be 30 by then). Granted you save money after this year with the expiring of Pedroia / Price, Ottavino, Richards, etc. but the increase in these guys salaries makes team building a little more complicated and you really need the next group of prospects to be similar to what we got out of Bogaerts, Devers, and Co. At that age.
And you want to move those prospects. I don't get your POV, exactly. Do you just not want to plan for the future at all and always be in go for it mode? What is your plan to compete in the future without any prospects? Or are you just willing to punt the next few years?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,348
Bogaerts is making $20M now, Devers less than $5M and Verdugo under $600k.

Bogaerts will opt out and will surely look at Lindor’s deal as a comp- he makes $34M per. I’d imagine extending Devers is going to be close to $30M annually, right? If you go to arb with Verdugo it will be at least $5M or so?

So those three guys that are making $25M combined today are suddenly making close to 3x that in a few years (and X will be 30 by then). Granted you save money after this year with the expiring of Pedroia / Price, Ottavino, Richards, etc. but the increase in these guys salaries makes team building a little more complicated and you really need the next group of prospects to be similar to what we got out of Bogaerts, Devers, and Co. At that age.
I'm just going to disagree with you here. I suspect because of age and his defensive reputation, Bogaerts will get around $25-$27.5 annual. Devers is still a few years away from FA so if they extend him now, I also think he could land around $22.5-$25 annual. Still a serious hit... but also, expect team salary cap/tax thresholds to rise considerably during that time so that amount will be less of a hit to the overall percentage
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
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Jan 13, 2021
11,947
No, I don’t want to move top prospects, (unless it was the right deal for this year and beyond) and don’t intend for theses posts to be a commentary on the trade deadline at all. I apologize if I was unclear.

A lot of the talk seems to be this team isn’t ready to contend and we need to wait a few years, until they are. Merely pointing out that we really don’t know when the team will be better than it is now, obviously, and that with the transition to the next core of this team - it’s very possible that the next true Sox contender looks totally different. To even keep the current core will be very expensive and overall team success will depend on the guys coming up to be good cheap contributors, as the guys getting expensive were.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
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Jul 14, 2005
23,721
Miami (oh, Miami!)
No, I don’t want to move top prospects, (unless it was the right deal for this year and beyond) and don’t intend for theses posts to be a commentary on the trade deadline at all. I apologize if I was unclear.

A lot of the talk seems to be this team isn’t ready to contend and we need to wait a few years, until they are. Merely pointing out that we really don’t know when the team will be better than it is now, obviously, and that with the transition to the next core of this team - it’s very possible that the next true Sox contender looks totally different. To even keep the current core will be very expensive and overall team success will depend on the guys coming up to be good cheap contributors, as the guys getting expensive were.
Houck in a Bottle

And if I could make starts last forever
And if words could make wishes come true
You would mow down fields of hitters
And times-through would not matter for us or you
And I'd save every start like a treasure and then
Again and again I'd see the post-season with you
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
38,187
I personally hate the idea that he can’t get better. That we rely on small sample size results to dictate his future. Sometimes pitchers have great games and continue dominating into the late innings - but if you won’t let them try, even on a leash, you’ll never find out.

Might as well stick him in the pen.
 

joe dokes

Member
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Jul 18, 2005
30,243
I personally hate the idea that he can’t get better. That we rely on small sample size results to dictate his future. Sometimes pitchers have great games and continue dominating into the late innings - but if you won’t let them try, even on a leash, you’ll never find out.

Might as well stick him in the pen.
I doubt (but can't be certain, of course) that they are relying only (or even greatly) on small sample size results. Dont pitchers throw between starts? Whether its a more trustworthy 3rd pitch or some other indication, I'm guessing that there is some real-time (as opposed to past performance) things that lead them to believe that he's not ready for it. It's more than just "let him try or else he'll never be able to do it."
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,348
I doubt (but can't be certain, of course) that they are relying only (or even greatly) on small sample size results. Dont pitchers throw between starts? Whether its a more trustworthy 3rd pitch or some other indication, I'm guessing that there is some real-time (as opposed to past performance) things that lead them to believe that he's not ready for it. It's more than just "let him try or else he'll never be able to do it."
That's too positive of a spin for me on that early Houck exit. I think it was a combination of Cora worrying about what happened his previous outing when he left him in too long and then buying into the SSS with hoping he could rely on his bullpen to get through the next 3 innings.
I don't blame Cora for thinking that Whitlock and the pen could get it done, considering that he (Whitlock) for the most part.... has. But there was a failure to read the game and continue with the hot hand for at least another batter or two (or more....?) and be ready with a quick hook. The whole game, next game and series even felt like it went up in flames at that exact moment.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
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Apr 25, 2002
90,032
Oregon
That's too positive of a spin for me on that early Houck exit. I think it was a combination of Cora worrying about what happened his previous outing when he left him in too long and then buying into the SSS with hoping he could rely on his bullpen to get through the next 3 innings.
I wish people would stop with the SSS bullshit. They've seen him through his minor league career. They've seen him in spring training and workouts. The organization knows what he is at this stage. Maybe he can improve enough to lengthen out ... but these decisions are not being made over the numbers since he's been in the majors, and anyone who thinks so are being, at best, naive.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,243
That's too positive of a spin for me on that early Houck exit. I think it was a combination of Cora worrying about what happened his previous outing when he left him in too long and then buying into the SSS with hoping he could rely on his bullpen to get through the next 3 innings.
I don't blame Cora for thinking that Whitlock and the pen could get it done, considering that he (Whitlock) for the most part.... has. But there was a failure to read the game and continue with the hot hand for at least another batter or two (or more....?) and be ready with a quick hook. The whole game, next game and series even felt like it went up in flames at that exact moment.
The "quick hook" scenario sounds nice, but then you're essentially locking in a reliever to come in with runners on base. I'm not convinced that that's any better of a plan.
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
38,187
I wish people would stop with the SSS bullshit. They've seen him through his minor league career. They've seen him in spring training and workouts. The organization knows what he is at this stage. Maybe he can improve enough to lengthen out ... but these decisions are not being made over the numbers since he's been in the majors, and anyone who thinks so are being, at best, naive.
Of course they're being made over the numbers.

You don't remove a starter at 58 pitches unless you're terrified about the prospect of what his numbers say he'll do in the future. I just don't buy into the fact that humans are numbers machines. It was obvious the moment Whitlock came in that something wasn't right and the game went off the deep end immediately.

It's like the Dodgers saying that once Snell came out in the World Series last year, their confidence shot up.