Swihart's second rodeo

RedOctober3829

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There is absolutely nothing you can point to after his last few games to say he isn't a major league catcher. Is he some wizard back there? No. But he's a pretty quiete and boring catcher, which is exactly what you want.

I think his at bats are intriguing. There is something there.
That's why I'm still pissed that Farrell stuck him out in the OF a couple years ago. Swihart should be what JT Realmuto is right now.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Swihart now has a higher OBP than either Leon or Vazquez, (and also higher than Nunez, a little bit below Devers and Bradley.) He hasn't hit for any power, but getting on base is more important, and he has made some progress, coming back from how horrible his numbers were a month ago.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The power may be coming. He did finally hit a home run for the first time in three years. Sure it barely got out, but it got out.
 

Plympton91

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His post offers just as much content as the post he was replying to and all the other game thread posts in this thread except it isn't warm and glowing... and he's new.

Swihart hasn't been good, he has been incredibly lucky.

edit: Last 12 games .417/.481/.625, .500 BAbip. And that's his hit streak.
A 64 point spread between BA and OBP is about average isn’t it? And a 200 ISO is also pretty good, no?

Regress the BAbip to .300 and you still have roughly 250 / 315 /450 That’s pretty good, no?

And of course, if you’re going to regress a high BAbip to partly discredit a hot streak, you should be fair and regress a low BAbip to partly excuse the cold streak at the start of the year as well. If, your objective is to evaluate the situation fairly, that is.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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A 64 point spread between BA and OBP is about average isn’t it? And a 200 ISO is also pretty good, no?

Regress the BAbip to .300 and you still have roughly 250 / 315 /450 That’s pretty good, no?

And of course, if you’re going to regress a high BAbip to partly discredit a hot streak, you should be fair and regress a low BAbip to partly excuse the cold streak at the start of the year as well. If, your objective is to evaluate the situation fairly, that is.
I'm not worried about his OBP. If he hits for a high enough average (.260-.270ish), he'll get on base. I'm not so sure he'll hit for any type of power. It's 12 games and a 31 PA, 27 AB sample size. That 1 HR he hit is worth .158 of that .208 ISO.

Also worth noting that 31 PA sample size is 25% of his PA for the season and raised his OPS by .187. So who knows? He should get his share of infield hits too, which will help.
 

richgedman'sghost

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@bosox79 has his mind made up and there is nothing you could say or point to that would get him to change it. I like the fact that defensively Blake seems to have a quick release on his throws. Just like a good QB in football, a quick release on throws to the bases is very important. I think the power in Blake's bat is slowly returning and is the last part of his hitting tool to return. I am very encouraged by Blake's speed on the bases and think he presents an interesting option for next year. I would look to trade Leon in the off-season.
 

Cesar Crespo

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@bosox79 has his mind made up and there is nothing you could say or point to that would get him to change it. I like the fact that defensively Blake seems to have a quick release on his throws. Just like a good QB in football, a quick release on throws to the bases is very important. I think the power in Blake's bat is slowly returning and is the last part of his hitting tool to return. I am very encouraged by Blake's speed on the bases and think he presents an interesting option for next year. I would look to trade Leon in the off-season.
"So who knows" sounds like a person who has his mind made up. I am pretty sure Blake won't have a .200 ISO over a full season's worth of PA. I also doubt he'll be as low as .065 as he is now (that's all time terrible territory). It's a 110 and 33 PA sample. I do think he has a shot at hitting .270 or even better, though. If he continues to walk at the same clip, that makes him our starting catcher even if Vaz is healthy. That would make Blake a league average hitter at the catching position if you assume his ISO is closer to .100-.130. The fact he has wheels will only help his cause. Getting infield hits is a plus and some players have made careers out of it.

It's not like the bar at catcher is set very high. It's set even lower on the Redsox. Hitting for contact is an underrated skill now.
 

tonyarmasjr

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Something like a .274/.319/.392 line with a .118 ISO? With his positive BsR, that's gotta be worth about 1.5 fWAR for a catcher splitting duties about half time, no?
 

uk_sox_fan

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I'm confused. Why are we talking about a .270 average for a backup catcher? The median team batting average is .247 and the median team catcher's BA is.229. Red Sox catchers have batted .217 this year vs Swihart's .218 average (at all positions - as a catcher he's batted .353 in 21 PA!)

Yes, he started off the year unable to hit (156/217/182 through 6/30) but he was getting fewer than one start per week and averaged less than 1 PA per game Boston played. Now granted, during his hot month of July he's only been playing 20% more often so I wouldn't leap to make the conclusion that all he needed was a few more starts, but if his norm is going to be 235/300/375 he'd be a real asset.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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I'm confused. Why are we talking about a .270 average for a backup catcher?
Because he's done that already. (See tony's clarifying post.)

It's a bit hard to believe, with three years of Vazquez/Leon in the rearview mirror, that somebody looked at that 2015 performance by Swihart and said "we need to move him somewhere else". I mean, could his defense really have been that bad?
 

joe dokes

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Because he's done that already. (See tony's clarifying post.)

It's a bit hard to believe, with three years of Vazquez/Leon in the rearview mirror, that somebody looked at that 2015 performance by Swihart and said "we need to move him somewhere else". I mean, could his defense really have been that bad?
Probably in part what they thought of Swihart's defense, but more so, I think, they thought Vazquez was that *good* and that Swihart's bat was also worth having in the lineup.
 

Plympton91

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Because he's done that already. (See tony's clarifying post.)

It's a bit hard to believe, with three years of Vazquez/Leon in the rearview mirror, that somebody looked at that 2015 performance by Swihart and said "we need to move him somewhere else". I mean, could his defense really have been that bad?
John Farrell simply was not a good judge of talent. In addition to his blackballing of Swihart (It was Luvullo who played him), how many terrible starts did we put up with before he gave Wright a real chance?
 
John Farrell simply was not a good judge of talent. In addition to his blackballing of Swihart (It was Luvullo who played him), how many terrible starts did we put up with before he gave Wright a real chance?
Or to put it another way, he had no gift for encouraging and developing young players. That was the knock on him in Toronto, IIRC, and it seems to explain both his success in Boston (with a team of veterans in 2013) and his failure (with the young players who followed).
 

joe dokes

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Or to put it another way, he had no gift for encouraging and developing young players. That was the knock on him in Toronto, IIRC, and it seems to explain both his success in Boston (with a team of veterans in 2013) and his failure (with the young players who followed).
This lines up with hiring the younger, played-more-recently Cora. It also suggests that off the field stuff may be where managers distinguish themselves.
 

Koufax

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He didn't try the "throw across your body while flying in the opposite direction" move that Nomar had. Good thing. He took a moment to position himself and then throw. That half-second cost him the out, but a wild throw would have put the runner on second.

His throws are strong and consistent. He's got a good arm.
 

Drek717

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With a solid showing at 3B yesterday, improving plate production, and Devers out for what should be a relatively short DL stint (hopefully) it'll be interesting to see if they move Swihart into effectively an every day role splitting time at catcher and 3B.

A quick Fangraphs snip from July 10th (Vazquez injury) to now:
27 PA, .375/.444/.625 slash line. ISO of .250, BABIP of .421.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
With a solid showing at 3B yesterday, improving plate production, and Devers out for what should be a relatively short DL stint (hopefully) it'll be interesting to see if they move Swihart into effectively an every day role splitting time at catcher and 3B.

A quick Fangraphs snip from July 10th (Vazquez injury) to now:
27 PA, .375/.444/.625 slash line. ISO of .250, BABIP of .421.
And while that line is somewhat BABIP-inflated, he really has been crushing the ball: his xOBA for the past 30 days is .383, with an xBABIP of .366 and an expected slash of .318/.408/.483. It's been easily the best offensive month of his MLB career, with an OPS of 1.143 for July (previous high: .931, August 2015).
 

Koufax

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It is baffling to me that they don't have him catching at least 2 games out of 5.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He's caught Johnson and Pomeranz since Vazquez got hurt. Logic would suggest he'd catch Eovaldi since he was taking Johnson's spot, but obviously he didn't. The only question is whether that was a result of Devers going down and Bogaerts needing the day off, or did Cora specifically want Eovaldi with Leon?
 

Plympton91

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Not in Monday's lineup
But he wins the game anyway.

Gotta love having a manager who is willing to dispense with the irrational fear of using his second catcher and having him get hurt.

Swihart needs to be at least splitting time evenly with Leon at this point.

Leon is much better against LH pitchers in his career (this year’s 45 at bats not worth taking signal from), so maybe Blake takes 3 out of 5 and time it so Leon gets LH as part of his 2 of 5
 
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teddywingman

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I don't know about that. Leon is a pretty good catcher, and we don't really know much about Swihart, other than the team seems somewhat reluctant to put him into heavy duty there. Maybe the team knows more than us.
 

Adrian's Dome

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I don't know about that. Leon is a pretty good catcher, and we don't really know much about Swihart, other than the team seems somewhat reluctant to put him into heavy duty there. Maybe the team knows more than us.
He's hitting, playing passable D, and proving a useful asset after being stapled to the bench the beginning of the season as Vazquez flailed away. Maybe they don't?

Leon is a good receiver, but he's going to get worn out, and he's cold at the moment. I don't think there's a lot of harm in ramping up Blake's starts, if for no reason other than to run with the hot hand.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't know about that. Leon is a pretty good catcher, and we don't really know much about Swihart, other than the team seems somewhat reluctant to put him into heavy duty there. Maybe the team knows more than us.
What they do when Vaz comes back and what they do with Leon after this year will tell us a lot about what they think of Blake Swihart. I guess they could always carry 3 catchers again next year if they think Swihart can play the utility role. Of course if Swihart is good enough to replace Brock Holt in that role, he should probably be our starting catcher unless they really hate him back there.
 

chonce1

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I prefer Swihart to Leon. I doubt the Sox will agree. They seem to like Leon, how he calls the games etc.... But I have been waiting for Swihart so long and it is bizarre how buried he has been given how modest our catching situation is. It isn't like we are loaded at the position. Like most teams we have flawed guys, especially with the bats
 

teddywingman

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After watching tonight's game, with Pomeranz missing locations by 3 feet at times... and Swihart handling it well, then making that perfect throw down to second for the CS... I want to see more Swihart at C.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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How much value does Vaquez have as a tradeable asset (in the offseason)?
His contract isn't horrible by any means, but does he provide anything to any other team anymore considering his offense is putrid and his defense is now questionable.....
 

Rovin Romine

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I don't know about that. Leon is a pretty good catcher, and we don't really know much about Swihart, other than the team seems somewhat reluctant to put him into heavy duty there. Maybe the team knows more than us.
Whatever they know about Blake is relative to Leon (and Vaz). I'm sure there's an equation that takes into account individual pitcher comfort, game calling, base-stealing, bullpen handling, and compares that to expected offense (from any of the three catchers.) There's also Blakes positional versatility and speed (which might hurt him if Cora would ideally prefer to have him in reserve, as a general principle.)

Not starting him does not necessarily mean they think Blake's defense is so bad he couldn't be an average defensive catcher.

But, by the Eyeball test, he's done very well this past month, so his workload ought to be gently increased.
 

tonyarmasjr

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I realize everyone is down on Vazquez, but I think it needs to be pointed out that he was in the midst of the worst season of his professional career. He and Swihart are both (still) hard to project going forward, but let's not judge either of them based solely on half a season. Additionally, Vazquez's value is at an extreme low right now. It would be foolish to trade him at this point, just like it would have been foolish to trade Swihart a month ago. He may not be the 2017 version, but he's also not the 2018 version. Is somewhere in the middle worth his contract? Maybe, maybe not given the team's financial constraints going forward.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
How much value does Vaquez have as a tradeable asset (in the offseason)?
Near none, I would think, unless he comes back and plays brilliantly for a month or so. As you say, the contract isn't bad in terms of dollars, but why would a team buy into that kind of multiyear commitment for a guy whose viability as a #1 catcher no longer seems like a given?
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Near none, I would think, unless he comes back and plays brilliantly for a month or so. As you say, the contract isn't bad in terms of dollars, but why would a team buy into that kind of multiyear commitment for a guy whose viability as a #1 catcher no longer seems like a given?
That’s the thing, though: his viability as a #1 catcher no longer seems like a given to the Red Sox, now. To other teams without Swihart and Leon, such as Washington, he may yet look like a #1 catcher but priced just a little above a backup.

It’s a question which can’t be properly assessed that before poking around the GM meetings next offseason.
 

DJnVa

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Yeah, Vazquez is about to turn 28. There's not a lot of projection left there I don't think. Swihart will be 27 right around opening day next year. I think most teams that aren't around them every day would assume they are what they are for the most part.
 

judyb

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I can't help but wonder what they think of Austin Rei, who'll be rule 5 eligible this offseason if they don't add him to the 40 man, having an optionable next man up at the position would make trading a catcher before knowing which of Leon, Vazquez, and Swihart can make it through spring training healthy so much easier.
 

tonyarmasjr

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Yeah, Vazquez is about to turn 28. There's not a lot of projection left there I don't think. Swihart will be 27 right around opening day next year. I think most teams that aren't around them every day would assume they are what they are for the most part.
What are they?
 

3_games_down

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I want to deemphasize Swihart's performance during the injury plagued seasons, especially if his injury's are not chronic. Increased playing time will drive out speculation. Swihart should be evaluated as a catcher or set free. The injury to Vazquez opened the door for Blake to earn a role. Blake's performance over the past 30 AB's is intriguing as hell. Could Blake Swihart actually be an .800+ OPS catcher? SSS, inevitability of regression, and prospect fan boy warning applies.
 

pokey_reese

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I mean, at this point it seems like Vaz is going to give you between -.5 WAR in a down year and +1.5 WAR in a good year. On average, you can probably expect him to be replacement level to slightly above, with a bit of an injury history. Given how few truly good, everyday catchers there are in the league, that has some value, but he's also unlikely to get a contract somewhere else that really makes other teams sorry that they signed him. He is a player you sign in order to not have a massive problem at catcher for a year or two, but not one that you sign to make the position a strength of the team, or someone you worry about blocking a prospect with. I'm fine with him staying with the Sox for a while, but the days of dreaming on him are mostly over for me, and that's ok.
 

DJnVa

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What are they?
Guys with an OPS+ of 70 and 84. One with really nice defensive skills and the other we keep waiting to hit because he hit in A and AA ball.

Don't misunderstand--there is value in what Vazquez and Swihart can do assuming they can stay healthy. I just wonder at what point it happens. Are we gonna be here in 5 years when they're 32 and 33 and say "If they can just stay healthy..."?
 

tonyarmasjr

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Guys with an OPS+ of 70 and 84. One with really nice defensive skills and the other we keep waiting to hit because he hit in A and AA ball.

Don't misunderstand--there is value in what Vazquez and Swihart can do assuming they can stay healthy. I just wonder at what point it happens. Are we gonna be here in 5 years when they're 32 and 33 and say "If they can just stay healthy..."?
Got it. I just wanted to make sure we were defining who they are based on their career OPS+ numbers for 1) a guy who has 511 MLB PA spread over 4 years, the majority of which came 3 years ago as a 23yo catcher and 2) a guy who has 1 full season of PA (also his best) out of 4 for a grand total of 948 PA, has seen his OPS+ fluctuate pretty dramatically over those 4 (73, 55, 91, 46), and missed a full year in there due to TJS. Without going and refreshing myself, I believe it takes OPS around 500 PA to begin to stabilize; spreading them over 4 or 5 years of development, injury, and positional change would, I believe, complicate that further.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Can he play in AAA before the 10 days are up or does he have to sit and lose his rhythm until after next weekend?
I'm sure he could, but he could not spend the entire 10 days playing. He's got to sit out for a few days first. Judging by what it takes to reset a rehab assignment, I would expect he'd have to be on the DL at least 7 days before he could start a rehab assignment. Otherwise, what would have stopped the team from putting him on the DL and sending him on rehab assignments continuously all year rather than playing him once a week.