Suzuki 3000

[Flynn4ever]

When I first came to Japan almost 20 years ago Ichiro was a phenom who beat the hated Giants in the Japan Series that year. I never would have imagined that he might someday go to the States and become the 30th person to get 3000 hits in MLB. Are we impressed or do we dismiss him as a slap hitter? (But in batting practice, man he hits it hard.) Thoughts?

 

[Tokyo Sox]

We're impressed. I don't know about the rest of the board, but we're impressed. I can't wait to watch the news when I get home tonight.

Nothing about 3,000 hits can be dismissed, I think. Yes he slapped some of them. Yes he could have taken more walks, or probably could have sacrificed some average for power (though when asked about that once in Seattle he said, "We already have one Richie Sexson on the team")...but he is, as you said, 1 of only 30 guys to join this club, ever. And he's 1 of only 2 (joining Rose) to do it in just 16 seasons. There's nothing cheap about any of it.

 

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

I am impressed with Ichiro, and I enjoyed watching him as a player. But I am surprised by how low he is on B-Ref's career WAR table.

He is at 122 by Position Player War, 184 overall, in his 16th season (59.8 WAR)

Some comparables
Jim Edmonds, 17 years, 60.3
Bobby Abreu, 18 years, 59.9
John Olerud, 17 years, 58

I really thought he would be solidly in the top 100 for position players.

 

[grimshaw]

I am impressed with Ichiro, and I enjoyed watching him as a player. But I am surprised by how low he is on B-Ref's career WAR table.

He is at 122 by Position Player War, 184 overall, in his 16th season (59.8 WAR)

Some comparables
Jim Edmonds, 17 years, 60.3
Bobby Abreu, 18 years, 59.9
John Olerud, 17 years, 58

I really thought he would be solidly in the top 100 for position players.

He came over when he was 27 which is the primary reason. That's 3-4 6 WAR seasons

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

l
And he's 1 of only 2 (joining Rose) to do it in just 16 seasons. There's nothing cheap about any of it.

This is true for one's FIRST 16 seasons. I did some play indexing. 3 others(Cobb, Musial, and Jeter) have done so over 16 consecutive seasons. Musial and Jeter did so over 2 overlapping such periods. Cobb did so over 5 such periods. Rose did so over 6 such periods.

For Musial, Jeter and Cobb didn't make it in their first 16 seasons due to late season callups in their first seasons.

 

[cardiacs]

What I really would like to see here is a solid argument on why we shouldn't be impressed.
Similarity scores on B-REF seems to be skewed towards guys who put up good numbers in their mid-late 30's. I would be interested to see what they would look like with Japanese stats included, along with some sort of correction factor (for example, .7)

 

[grimshaw]

My only knock against him was that he hung on 3 or 4 seasons too long a la BIggio and really hasn't been a useful enough bench player to justify a roster spot (though holding his own this year). 3,000 must have been really important to him and maybe he thought it would seal the Cooperstown deal since the resume (unfairly) seemed light.

He hit the ground running, being an absolute terror on the bases and impossible to pitch to.
He had an MVP caliber year and several first team all-star like performances that I'm sure would have been more if he was over here around age 23 or so.

I can't find the fangraphs chat, but someone asked what Ichiro's tools would have rated, and the response was 8 hit tool, 4 power, 7 field, 7-8 speed and an incredible arm.

Aside from having a superior arm and a bit less in game power,that's basically Rickey Henderson-lite.

He is a no doubt first ballot in my mind.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

He came over when he was 27 which is the primary reason. That's 3-4 6 WAR seasons

This is exactly right. WAR is a glorified counting stat.

For Ichiro to have lost 4-5 seasons worth of accumulation during his peak years, it's amazing he's as high as he is.

His game was a real throwback, and it was great to see that succeed during the "three true outcomes" heyday of the early 00's.

 

[jon abbey]

Beltre looks like he will be next to 3000, next year sometime, he's at 2878 now.

 

[DanoooME]

My only knock against him was that he hung on 3 or 4 seasons too long a la BIggio and really hasn't been a useful enough bench player to justify a roster spot (though holding his own this year). 3,000 must have been really important to him and maybe he thought it would seal the Cooperstown deal since the resume (unfairly) seemed light.

He hit the ground running, being an absolute terror on the bases and impossible to pitch to.
He had an MVP caliber year and several first team all-star like performances that I'm sure would have been more if he was over here around age 23 or so.

I can't find the fangraphs chat, but someone asked what Ichiro's tools would have rated, and the response was 8 hit tool, 4 power, 7 field, 7-8 speed and an incredible arm.

Aside from having a superior arm and a bit less in game power,that's basically Rickey Henderson-lite.

He is a no doubt first ballot in my mind.

Except for the fact that Rickey drew walks like they were going out of style and Ichiro doesn't.

But I do agree he has to go in the HOF. The guy has been a great player all-around.

 

[jon abbey]

Except for the fact that Rickey drew walks like they were going out of style and Ichiro doesn't.

And he had almost three times as many HRs, 297 to 113. I love Ichiro, but no one really compares to prime Rickey for a power/speed combo weapon.

 

[grimshaw]

And he had almost three times as many HRs, 297 to 113. I love Ichiro, but no one really compares to prime Rickey for a power/speed combo weapon.

Rickey, you and I agree that Rickey was the greatest, though slugging wasn't all that far off, .415 to .405 (in Safeco) and not having his age 21-26 over in the states.
Rickey-lite.

 

[Rovin Romine]

What I really would like to see here is a solid argument on why we shouldn't be impressed.
Similarity scores on B-REF seems to be skewed towards guys who put up good numbers in their mid-late 30's. I would be interested to see what they would look like with Japanese stats included, along with some sort of correction factor (for example, .7)

There's a tab on B-Ref for this: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=suzuki001ich Unaltered, that's 4278 hits, 231 HR.

If you go with .7 it's 3894 hits, which'd put him #3 after Rose and Cobb.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Rickey, you and I agree that Rickey was the greatest, though slugging wasn't all that far off, .415 to .405 (in Safeco) and not having his age 21-26 over in the states.
Rickey-lite.

.35 points of BA makes a big difference.

Henderson's ISO (.140) is nearly .50 more than Ichiro's (.91). That's not insignificant.
Rickey breached over .200 four times during his prime, and averaged .170 for a decade. Ichiro's best ISO was .133.

I'm not saying Ichiro had bad power as a leadoff guy, we've all seen him hit some bombs over the years. But his game was clearly tailored towards hitting the ball on the ground or poking it into opposite field. Henderson had an approach more like a traditional power hitter. Very different profiles here.

 

[Bozo Texino]

I'm not saying Ichiro had bad power as a leadoff guy, we've all seen him hit some bombs over the years. But his game was clearly tailored towards hitting the ball on the ground or poking it into opposite field.

Reminds me of Posnanski's article on Ichiro and Nolan Ryan.

Ichiro definitely could've had more solid power numbers. It just wasn't what he necessarily wanted to do.

EDIT: And yes - I'm impressed. The dude is a surefire hall of famer.

 

[grimshaw]

.35 points of BA makes a big difference.

Henderson's ISO (.140) is nearly .50 more than Ichiro's (.91). That's not insignificant.
Rickey breached over .200 four times during his prime, and averaged .170 for a decade. Ichiro's best ISO was .133.

I'm not saying Ichiro had bad power as a leadoff guy, we've all seen him hit some bombs over the years. But his game was clearly tailored towards hitting the ball on the ground or poking it into opposite field. Henderson had an approach more like a traditional power hitter. Very different profiles here.

Fair enough.
Plus Rickey had a bat drop after a home run, and Ichiro had more of a flip.

 

[Flynn4ever]

.35 points of BA makes a big difference.

Henderson's ISO (.140) is nearly .50 more than Ichiro's (.91). That's not insignificant.
Rickey breached over .200 four times during his prime, and averaged .170 for a decade. Ichiro's best ISO was .133.

I'm not saying Ichiro had bad power as a leadoff guy, we've all seen him hit some bombs over the years. But his game was clearly tailored towards hitting the ball on the ground or poking it into opposite field. Henderson had an approach more like a traditional power hitter. Very different profiles here.

Yeah, I agree with Foulke, they aren't really a great comparison. Rickey was unique in ways that I don't think we'll see in the 21st century. (I'm going by eye test moreso than by stats.)

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

I know the thread is about Ichiro (who I loved seeing play for my hometown M's), but consider how much better Rickey would have been had he batted from dominant (LH) side. I've read that when he was little, he saw all the kids batting righty and thought it was a rule that you had to stand on that side of the plate.

Throws left, bats right, is a pretty unusual combination. Who did it besides Rickey, Randy Johnson, and GHWB?

 

[SumnerH]

I know the thread is about Ichiro (who I loved seeing play for my hometown M's), but consider how much better Rickey would have been had he batted from dominant (LH) side. I've read that when he was little, he saw all the kids batting righty and thought it was a rule that you had to stand on that side of the plate.

Throws left, bats right, is a pretty unusual combination. Who did it besides Rickey, Randy Johnson, and GHWB?

Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick in recent memory. The notorious Hal Chase.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/bats-right-throws-left-the-best-players-in-major-league-history/ has a list; it's pretty thin.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I know the thread is about Ichiro (who I loved seeing play for my hometown M's), but consider how much better Rickey would have been had he batted from dominant (LH) side. I've read that when he was little, he saw all the kids batting righty and thought it was a rule that you had to stand on that side of the plate.

Throws left, bats right, is a pretty unusual combination. Who did it besides Rickey, Randy Johnson, and GHWB?

Former Sox Cody Ross and Dave McCarty. Hall of Famers Sandy Koufax and Carl Hubbell. Tommy John.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Thanks. Interesting that so many are pitchers.

 

[soxfaninyankeeland]

Madison Bumgarner. I play softball with two guys who throw L, bat R. One plays 3rd base!

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Cleon Jones

 

[E5 Yaz]

Cleon Jones

He lives in a van by the river

 

[loshjott]

Gio Gonzalez, another pitcher.

Plus my son who played through his soph year of HS.

 

[Just a bit outside]

Yeah, I agree with Foulke, they aren't really a great comparison. Rickey was unique in ways that I don't think we'll see in the 21st century. (I'm going by eye test moreso than by stats.)

I think Mookie might be closest to Rickey. A little more power and a little less speed but Mookie would steal a ton more bases if he played in the 80s.

 

[jmm57]

I think Mookie might be closest to Rickey. A little more power and a little less speed but Mookie would steal a ton more bases if he played in the 80s.

I have seen this said multiple places, but I don't think its that apt a comparison. Rickey's walk rate was almost 3x Mookie's in his age 23 season. And his ISO was about half Mookie's. I don't think there is really anyone today even close to the same mold as Rickey as a player. Oddly, the closest statistically to Rickey this year is probably Bryce Harper.

I think the comp for Mookie is Gary Sheffield. Sheffield struck out less, but the power numbers/walk rate/shift to the outfield are pretty similar.

 

[phrenile]

Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick in recent memory.

Presently, Drew Pomeranz.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Or perhaps currently.

 

[DaveGallagher]

 

[SumnerH]

Presently, Drew Pomeranz.

Yeah, it's much more common among pitchers.

 

[TheRooster]

Doesn't our own Yoan Moncada have the potential to be a modern day Rickey?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

EDIT: And yes - I'm impressed. The dude is a surefire hall of famer.

If he's not a first ballot guy, they should shut the entire hall down.