Surf's Up: Summer 2015 Transfer Rumors

Vinho Tinto

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With the season just about over, the rumors are starting to sprout like weeds. There is no crazy Ronaldo/Bale/Neymar-sized deal pending, but a lot name players and managers are expected to swap clubs.The following are already getting their names published in rumor rags:
 
Klopp
Ancelotti
Sterling
De Gea
Bale
Varane
Di Maria
Falcao
Chicharito
Nani
Toure
De Bruyne
Jovetic
Pastore
Pogba
 
Will someone that no one is expecting move? Will it actually be a lot more boring than expected? I of course am counting the days until Real Salt Lake and the Church of Latter-day Saints announce a deal with Mario Balotelli as a player/high priest. 
 
 
 

Titans Bastard

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Vinho Tinto said:
Will someone that no one is expecting move? Will it actually be a lot more boring than expected? I of course am counting the days until Real Salt Lake and the Church of Latter-day Saints announce a deal with Mario Balotelli as a player/high priest. 
 
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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To Vinho Tinto's list I would add the following, some of whom are less "name players" than bright young prospects:
 
Cavani
Reus
Hummels
Gundogan
Lacazette
Fekir
Vietto
Icardi
Dybala
Firmino
 
I think one "x factor" club to think about, as both buyer and seller, is Bayern.  All does not seem well there and they may need to start turning over the team more aggressively.  How long can they rely on Robben (32 next January) and Ribery (33 next spring)?  I don't believe the rumors that they would sell Muller, who seems too important as a younger German face of the club.  But I wouldn't rule out the departure of one or more big name older players or them being active in trying to bring in new blood, especially in attack.
 

Vinho Tinto

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Bayern has to be a player this summer. There are a cluster of players on the wrong side of 30. The above mentioned wingers were on the shelf during the season's crunch time. Alonso, Dante, and Schweinsteiger are clearly showing decline. Lahm has already acknowledged that he is likely to retire in 2018. 
 

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That's the last place Mourinho would want to sell him to, but if that's where Cech has really wants to go, I also don't think Mourinho could deny a longtime player his preferred destination. This will be really interesting. 
 

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Wolfsburg said they won´t sell de Bruyne this summer. They are doing serious business. Of course you can have an argument that they only wanna drive the price up and what happens if Barca shows up and say "we offer you 80mil. what do you say?", but i doubt he will leave this summer.
 
Reus just signed a new contract, he won´t leave, but there are several players that will leave Dortmund, as they bring in new coach Thomas Tuchel, who sits out the last season of his contract at Mainz 05. The guy is aggressive and probably wants to bring in some new guys to give the team a new ID (maybe not from how they play, but from who plays). Hummels could go, but he is undecided. Subotic made lots of mistakes this last season, so i can see him going. Gündogan is a very good player. He might wants to leave, but the club could also make a last second try to make him sign a new contract. Immobile and Ramos (both strikers) should go. Johannes Geis is a player from Mainz 05 that played in every german youth team and a guy that Tuchel likes a lot, so he could come in and play midfield next season. Gonzalo Castro (Leverkusen) was also mentioned lots of times as a possible new midfielder and he said THANKS FANS on his shirt at the last home match.
 
Bayern will be a big player, as they are somehow unhappy about their season and the way some players showed up. Dante played poor since the WC (although Pep said 10 times, that Dante is his best player), Schweinsteiger/Alonso/Lahm have shown wear and tear, although i can imagine them bouncing back next season with a regular break and now WC this summer. Ribery+Robben were always prone to injuries and this season just showed it´s about time for others (Götze especially) to step up.
There is no way in hell Bayern sells Müller, even if ManU/van Gaal offers 80mil.€. This guy is Bayern. He is funny, he is vocal, a leader on the field, he scores important goals, he can play multiple positions. Never. Someone mentioned as a possibility for Bayern was Griezmann.
 

DJnVa

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Heard Javier Hernandez being linked to Tottenham.
 
But since it's Tottenham, it won't happen.
 

bosox4283

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This summer is the first one in a while when it seems that Atletico won't lose any star players (unless, of course, Chelsea pays Griezman's clause). Frankly, I'm hoping someone--maybe United---overpays for Miranda. Mario Suarez will likely end up at a middle-of-the-road team in England or Italy. I suppose it's possible Atletico listens to offers for Mandzukic, the striker, and I wouldn't mind the team selling him to invest in the midfield. 
 
It seems inevitable that De Gea ends up at Real Madrid. When this move happens, I'd suspect either Keylor Navas or Casillas to leave. If I were Navas, I'd be pissed -- he signed with Madrid as one of the most promising players in La Liga, only to sit the bench for Casillas and now watch as Madrid publicly courts De Gea. 
 

Cellar-Door

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Andre Ayew is leaving Marseilles, his contract is about to expire and he wants to go to England or Italy.
I'd guess he ends up at Liverpool. (obviously hoping West Ham, but I think a team higher up the table will get him).
 

sachmoney

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bosox4283 said:
It seems inevitable that De Gea ends up at Real Madrid. When this move happens, I'd suspect either Keylor Navas or Casillas to leave. If I were Navas, I'd be pissed -- he signed with Madrid as one of the most promising players in La Liga, only to sit the bench for Casillas and now watch as Madrid publicly courts De Gea. 
Navas timed his move poorly imo. While I'm pretty happy with how Ospina has played, Navas would be one of the few goalkeepers I'd make a move for if the price is right.
 

Dummy Hoy

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Schnerres said:
Wolfsburg said they won´t sell de Bruyne this summer. They are doing serious business. Of course you can have an argument that they only wanna drive the price up and what happens if Barca shows up and say "we offer you 80mil. what do you say?", but i doubt he will leave this summer.
 
 
They're in the Champion's League next season, no need to sell basically their best player.
 

Cellar-Door

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In proof that the English player rules are ridiculous:
Chelsea and Man City are both considering runs at Alex Song because he counts as a "home grown" player.
 

soxfan121

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Cellar-Door said:
In proof that the English player rules are ridiculous:
Chelsea and Man City are both considering runs at Alex Song because he counts as a "home grown" player.
 
Trained at the club for 3 years before he turned 21. It is why Wenger bought so young (and cheaply) and why Chelsea is doing the same with the loan army. 

IIRC, Paul Pogba, for ManU, is both home- and club-grown; it's huge factor to getting more than 17 quality players into the CL roster.
 

Cellar-Door

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soxfan121 said:
 
Trained at the club for 3 years before he turned 21. It is why Wenger bought so young (and cheaply) and why Chelsea is doing the same with the loan army. 

IIRC, Paul Pogba, for ManU, is both home- and club-grown; it's huge factor to getting more than 17 quality players into the CL roster.
Oh I know, I was pointing out that the dumb player rules are why 2 top teams are after a player who they should never even consider. It would be like the Red Sox trading for Nick Ahmed because we need a certain number of guys from MA.
 

Zososoxfan

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Cellar-Door said:
Oh I know, I was pointing out that the dumb player rules are why 2 top teams are after a player who they should never even consider. It would be like the Red Sox trading for Nick Ahmed because we need a certain number of guys from MA.
 
The thinking behind this has to be that if the EPL is entirely made up of foreigners due to the lack of restrictions, the England National Team would suffer, right? Do the other top Euro leagues have these kind of quotas?
 

soxfan121

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Zososoxfan said:
 
The thinking behind this has to be that if the EPL is entirely made up of foreigners due to the lack of restrictions, the England National Team would suffer, right? Do the other top Euro leagues have these kind of quotas?
 
This is more about UEFA than individual countries. A 25-man roster has to consist of 8 "homegrown" players (used to be 4 "at the club" - unsure if that's still the policy), leaving 17 slots for "foreign" players. Thus, a guy like Alex Song - who meets the UEFA qualifications as "homegrown" because he was at Arsenal for three season prior to his 21st year (birthday?) - is a valuable commodity for teams with CL/Europa aspirations, as he replaces one of those 8 players...often a backup keeper or two and some youngsters who would only play in a dire emergency. Upgrading that slot to "at least competitive" makes a guy like Song a better value than he really is because he's being compared to (for Chelsea) with the likes of Josh McEachern or Nathan Ake or someone you've never heard of (unless you're Snakebauer, in which case, all those guys are the awesome!).
 
Take a look at the CL squad list for Real Madrid or Juventus or Man City...there's a couple names that you'll have never heard of before (Richard Wright!) or again, but who were techincally part of the official club roster. 
 

Titans Bastard

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Zososoxfan said:
The thinking behind this has to be that if the EPL is entirely made up of foreigners due to the lack of restrictions, the England National Team would suffer, right? Do the other top Euro leagues have these kind of quotas?
 
There are different types of quotas, although none can be super restrictive because of EU/EEA labor law.  Basically, everyone in the EU + Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein counts as one giant labor market.
 
Spain, France, and Italy have limits on non-EEA players, but players from Cotonou countries count as domestic in Spain and France, which means that plenty of Africans don't count towards the quota.  Portugal counts everyone from Lusophone countries as domestic.  The Netherlands doesn't have any limits, but they do have a salary floor for non-EEA players which, given the economics of the Eredivisie, imposes enough of a real cost and opportunity cost to keep quite a few non-EEA players out.
 
Places like Germany and the Scandinavian countries don't have limits, IIRC.
 
 
 
But I'd argue that foreigner quota rules aren't really the issue with the EPL's lack of quality domestic players.  The problem is that EPL clubs have obscene amounts of money from top to bottom.  The incentive to invest in player development isn't there.  It's not just about spending on the academy and paying for/developing youth coaching.  You have to commit to player development in full, which means taking more chances on young players in games and actually giving them opportunities.
 
Part of the reason why places like Argentina and the Netherlands are talent factories is that their good players are constantly being poached by foreign clubs.  They must always look to nurture young talent to fill in the gaps that appear with each offseason's departures.  But countries with more heavyweight domestic leagues show that it can be done, too -- look at Germany and Spain.
 

Cellar-Door

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Zososoxfan said:
 
The thinking behind this has to be that if the EPL is entirely made up of foreigners due to the lack of restrictions, the England National Team would suffer, right? Do the other top Euro leagues have these kind of quotas?
Some do some don't.
 
The thinking is stupid of course, since a lot of the best young English talent has stagnated because they don't play, just sit on the bench behind world class talents to make up the quotas at Chelsea, City, ManU etc. It's hard to tell a player not to take a huge raise to go to a top club, but for the National Team, they would almost certainly be better off with those players getting real run at someplace like Hull or Sunderland than training at Man City and playing 20 minutes a month in the FA cup.
 
The other problem is that English players never go abroad. Think about it, when was the last time you saw English players in France, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands etc. Very very few players go outside their comfort zones, and I think it makes them weaker, since if they can't make a premier team they end up in the Championship or rotting on the bench, where they could probably play for the bottom of the Spanish or Italian league and get better competition and more playing time.
 
The National team would be better if their players played the best competition possible, and played a lot, wherever that was. However, the players are probably better served by the rules, more of them get jobs, and the jobs are higher paying. Plus they get preference over more talented players so they don't have to compete.
 
Cellar-Door said:
The other problem is that English players never go abroad. Think about it, when was the last time you saw English players in France, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands etc. Very very few players go outside their comfort zones, and I think it makes them weaker, since if they can't make a premier team they end up in the Championship or rotting on the bench, where they could probably play for the bottom of the Spanish or Italian league and get better competition and more playing time.
 
Micah Richards and Ashley Cole say hello. (But in general your point is well made...and Cole hasn't exactly set the world on fire at Roma, although Richards seems to have benefited from his loan spell at Fiorentina.)
 

Schnerres

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Neven Subotic signed a new contract until 2018 and confirmed it on his instagram page:
https://instagram.com/p/3Lwq_xGlm6/?taken-by=subotic4
 
Dortmund is said to have bought Gonzalo Castro from Bayer Leverkusen.
On transfermarkt.de, Dortmund boss Watzke talks about selling Gündogan this summer, because they don´t want to be there empty-handed like with Lewandowski.
http://www.transfermarkt.de/watzke-bdquo-gundogan-wird-im-sommer-dortmund-verlassen-ldquo-/view/news/198711
Possible suitors mentioned in that interview are: ManU, Bayern (in a swap Gündogan for the returning Hojberg) and Barca (which Gündogan would favor, but would be very hard to do because of the transfer ban. A loan for 6months is mentioned with a following sale to Barca in the coming winter.).
 
Domer said:
The Guardian reports Sami Khedira will sign for Juventus on a free transfer.
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/may/26/sami-khedira-juventus-real-madrid
Obviously, he's had plenty of issues staying healthy, but when he was, he was a starter on a World Cup-winning side. You could assemble a pretty good squad with all the players Florentino Pérez had cast off.
 
There are rumors floating about that Arturo Vidal may be on his way to Arsenal - the Khedira signing would seem to make that more possible. (Vidal is very close with Alexis Sanchez, apparently.)
 

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Really, really can't see Vidal to Arsenal happening.  It makes zero sense for Juventus and players don't move from clubs they are very settled at simply because their buddy plays for a different club.  
 
Pirlo seems to be the likeliest Juve midfielder to move this summer, to the MLS.  
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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AgentOrange said:
Really, really can't see Vidal to Arsenal happening.  It makes zero sense for Juventus and players don't move from clubs they are very settled at simply because their buddy plays for a different club.  
 
Pirlo seems to be the likeliest Juve midfielder to move this summer, to the MLS.  
 
Doesn't make much sense for Arsenal either.  Vidal would improve any club but Arsenal has much bigger needs than another #8/#10.
 

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ConigliarosPotential said:
 
There are rumors floating about that Arturo Vidal may be on his way to Arsenal - the Khedira signing would seem to make that more possible. (Vidal is very close with Alexis Sanchez, apparently.)
 
 
AgentOrange said:
Really, really can't see Vidal to Arsenal happening.  It makes zero sense for Juventus and players don't move from clubs they are very settled at simply because their buddy plays for a different club.  
 
Pirlo seems to be the likeliest Juve midfielder to move this summer, to the MLS.  
 
 
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
 
Doesn't make much sense for Arsenal either.  Vidal would improve any club but Arsenal has much bigger needs than another #8/#10.
 
He makes perfect sense for Liverpool. That said, unless the Klopp Rumors bear fruit, I don't see it happening.
 

PedroSpecialK

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If Liverpool retain Sterling, considering they have Coutinho and Lallana in midfield already, I'd say Illaramendi makes a lot more sense in terms of a fit as well as likelihood of occurrence than Vidal
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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There are lots of rumors that Liverpool are bidding for Mateo Kovacic from Inter, a big time talent as an all-around central midfielder.  His performances have gotten mixed reviews the past couple years but he's only 21 and has a genuinely world class ceiling according to many.  I don't know if the rumors are true but the move makes a certain amount of sense for all the parties involved.
 

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
 
Doesn't make much sense for Arsenal either.  Vidal would improve any club but Arsenal has much bigger needs than another #8/#10.
People said the same thing about signing Mesut Ozil so....
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I'm skeptical about Aguero to Real happening for several reasons.  But this - and all the follow-up moves that would occur  - would definitely be the biggest story of the transfer season. 
 

Zomp

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Higuain is rumored for Chelsea.  They must be sweating over Costa's injury.
 
One big rumor on a sosh-like United board is De Gea is soon off to Madrid.
 
and finally, Dimitar Berbatov is a free agent.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Just restricting ourselves to rumors that seem to have at least tiny bit of credibility from my perspective, here's a little roundup of Premier League related stuff:
 
-De Gea is almost definitely gone to Madrid.
-Liverpool likely to sign Milner.  I still think they may get Kovacic too but that's just a feeling.
-Gundogan and Bayern reportedly could not come to terms.  He is linked to United and Barcelona.
-Lloris has hinted that he may leave Spurs this summer for the right opportunity.  United might make sense.
-Cech seems most likely to go to Arsenal or maybe United if they prefer him to other options.
-Chelsea is reportedly looking to sell Cuadrado already, likely back to Italy.
-Lukaku wants to play Champions League football but its not clear who would buy him.
 

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Apparently Sky Italia and another Italian TV station are reporting Pedro Obiang to West Ham for 4.7M pounds. Likely means West Ham isn't going to try and sign Song at all. Which I like, seems like an upgrade, similar players, Obiang is probably a bit better passer, bit worse shooter, but he's a lot younger.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Simeone says that Atletico is "close" to signing Vietto and that they are actively pursuing Tevez as well.  Rumors have them selling Mandzukic.
 
Vietto and Simeone go way back while Tevez and Simeone probably also know each other and seem like a match made in heaven in general.
 
A forward trio of Griezmann-Tevez-Vietto, either rotating into two spots in their 4-4-2 or playing together in a 4-3-3, looks pretty damn good.
 

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The Guardian (not typically into rumor-mongering) is reporting that Liverpool is ready to sign Bolton Keeper (and Hungary International) Adam Bogdan on a free transfer.

Knowing very little about him, he seems to be a better option than Brad Jones for cup competitions and occasional Europa League matches. Hope this gets done.
 

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Schalke is burning some more bridges by keep giving Horst Heldt the power.
 
First, he said (some days ago, after firing di Matteo) that he is looking to get Marc Wilmots from Belgium, so the club will attract fans again. Then, he started talks with him, while Wilmots had the big match with Belgium against Wales coming up, which they lost 0-1. Heldt broke up the talks, as it seems Wilmots wanted to bring his entire Belgium staff with him and wanted 4mil. €. It seems to me like an okay sum for this chaos club and for leaving a big and improving national team (great offense, but still lacking defense besides keeper Courtois). Now Wilmots said that "it´s a joke to say they broke up the talks. They came to me to offer me something and are now saying they cancelled talks with me." I mean, he is mad because he doesn´t want to be seen in Belgium like he talked to Schalke and didn´t make it. He means he just listened to their offer and it wasn´t good enough.
 
So instead of getting their old fans man Wilmots, they present their fans Andre Breitenreiter, who has a release clause in his contract in Paderborn (just got relegated). They overachieved by being relegated at first and played a decent season. He can develop young players and seems to be a good coach, too. But this could end up in a "cheap firing", if he doesn´t get results, very soon. Horst Heldt said he comes cheaper than Wilmots (including the 500k release clause). Schalke informed Paderborns club boss through the press that they will buy Breitenreiter through the 500k release option. Style.
 
(informations through sport1.de)
 

soxfan121

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Schnerres said:
Schalke informed Paderborns club boss through the press that they will buy Breitenreiter through the 500k release option. Style.
 
(informations through sport1.de)
 
Wow. That's...chutzpah. 
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Falcao to Chelsea according to Sky Sports.  It has been rumored for a while but this is the first semi-legitimate source I've seen regarding an actual deal in place.  I assume its another loan.
 
Falcao and Mourinho are both Mendes clients so its not that surprising in some ways.
 

Schnerres

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PSG are interested in Kevin Trapp, GK.

He plays at Eintracht Frankfurt and is another keeper from Kaiserslautern. I guess (no stats to prove) the most keepers in 1st+2nd Bundesliga from a single club/youth team are from Gerry Ehrmann keeper school at Kaiserslautern, who also taught Kevin Trapp (add Weidenfeller/Dortmund, former Tim Wiese/Bremen, Tobias Sippel/switches from Kaiserslautern to Gladbach, Marco Knaller/Sandhausen, Marius Müller/Kaiserslautern and former Luis Robles/NY Red Bulls, Florian Fromlowitz/Wehen Wiesbaden in 3rd Bundesliga).
 
Kevin Trapp (turns 25 this summer) is a former U18-U21 national player who is also knocking on the door to the german senior squad. There´s just so much depth at keeper that he isn´t pulled to the team, yet. At the U21 this summer, there is ter Stegen(Barca, 23 years old), Leno (Leverkusen, 23 years old) and Horn (Köln, 22 years old). In the senior team, there is already Zieler (Hannover, 26 years old) and of course Neuer (Bayern, 29 years old), but Weidenfeller (Dortmund, turns 35 years this summer) will probably leave sometime soon, but could sit on the bench for the next Euros as a 3rd man.
 
Trapp is strong keeper on the line. He is the typical keeper from the Ehrmann school: great reactions, great presence. What every one of the other keepers above lacks: a build-up play. When you see Manuel Neuer (or ter Stegen, for example), you see a keeper who has the ball at his feet and is able to move it and pass it exactly to his wing players 60m away. The typical "Ehrmann keeper" cannot do that, but Trapp can pass the ball out of his own box. Not as exact as Neuer, but he has better pass rates than most Bundesliga keepers and you can also see it with the eye, that he has better technical skills (although you won´t see the back-heel that Neuer could do).