Super Bowl LIX Game Thread

tims4wins

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The Eagles defense is really really good and will give the Chiefs offense all sorts of problems. Mahomes is going to have to play a vintage game making tons of plays out of structure because that D line will get pressure and the secondary plays well as a unit and won’t give him lots of easy completions like the Bills did where he’s just making reads and easy throws on time.

On the other side of the ball, I think the Chiefs will struggle to stop Saquon like everybody else. They’ll have to stack the box and Hurts will have a lot of chances to make plays downfield, it’s a question of how well he executes in a handful of big moments.

My worries about the Eagles are that Spags will design a game plan to take advantage of Hurts’ weaknesses, especially on key third downs, and that the team is prone to bad situational football

If its a tied or one score game late you have to like the Chiefs but I think there’s a decent chance the Eagles can pull further ahead by then.
You have to be up multiple scores to beat KC.
 

Hoya81

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So he's a regular Philadelphia fan, I take it?

It's hilarious. I was watching with Eagles fans on Sunday and they a) all wanted Sirianni fired in September, b) don't fully trust this team, and c) when I said "Congrats folks" when they went up 48-23 with 8 minutes left and all of them were like "STOP DON'T JINX IT!!!!!"

They're like Sox fans before 2004. And they love the Eagles and seem to kind of hate them as well, like a messed up family relationship sort of?
This is essentially every Sunday watching football with my wife. She thinks Sirianni is a drag on the team because he’s a lousy coach who’s willing to let the front office run the show, unlike Reid/Kelly/Pederson.
 

Bowhemian

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Chiefs defense is going to be 7 men in the box to stop the run and challenge Hurts to make plays. The so-called tush push is not going to be an option for PHL. PHL is going to have to dial up some plays to get between the 7 in the box and the defensive backs.
 

Sandwich Pick

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This is essentially every Sunday watching football with my wife. She thinks Sirianni is a drag on the team because he’s a lousy coach who’s willing to let the front office run the show, unlike Reid/Kelly/Pederson.
That's not an unreasonable position to take. Especially considering what happened last year when they lost both coordinators and misfired on both replacements.

Still, whatever they're doing is working.
 

BaseballJones

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Chiefs defense is going to be 7 men in the box to stop the run and challenge Hurts to make plays. The so-called tush push is not going to be an option for PHL. PHL is going to have to dial up some plays to get between the 7 in the box and the defensive backs.
Philly does the tush push against everyone and it works. It works because their OL is great and because Hurts is an absolute beast who does it properly, unlike Josh Allen. Hurts goes in low and strong; Allen goes in tall. Big mistake. Hurts will get that done.

What Hurts has going for him is that his receivers are outstanding. Brown and Smith and Goedert are all excellent with the ball and after the catch. My biggest concern with Philly is Hurts - can he make the throws under pressure? Hurts only threw 5 picks all season, so he takes good care of the ball, generally speaking. I can't find his stats vs. the blitz or when he's pressured, but that'll be key, as KC's pass rush is very good.

But KC really has to key on Saquon, who is obviously either the best or second best RB in football (depending on your view of Henry). He's a powerhouse and a true home run hitter. KC will have to play run D first and hope their secondary holds up against Brown, Smith, and Goedert.

And unfortunately for KC, Philly's defense is healthy, unlike Buffalo's, which was a shell of itself due to injury.

On paper, should be a great, great game. Remember, two years ago, it was a great game between these two teams, and Philly didn't have Barkley, and KC was better then.
 

Hoya81

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That's not an unreasonable position to take. Especially considering what happened last year when they lost both coordinators and misfired on both replacements.

Still, whatever they're doing is working.
I don’t disagree. But her nightmare is that eventually they’ll get burned by a poor in-game decision.
 

Oil Can Dan

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Chiefs defense is going to be 7 men in the box to stop the run and challenge Hurts to make plays. The so-called tush push is not going to be an option for PHL. PHL is going to have to dial up some plays to get between the 7 in the box and the defensive backs.
Every single team they’ve played has gone into the game saying that they’re going to stop Barkley. And really none of them have.

Anything can happen, but Philly is bigger and stronger than KC is on both lines. Spags is a genius and I expect him to have a great game plan, but at the end of the day the players have to execute. I’m not sure if KC can limit Barkley.
 

johnmd20

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Chiefs defense is going to be 7 men in the box to stop the run and challenge Hurts to make plays. The so-called tush push is not going to be an option for PHL. PHL is going to have to dial up some plays to get between the 7 in the box and the defensive backs.
This is wrong.

The tush push will be an option for Philly and it will work. I have no idea what Buffalo was thinking with their sneak tactics but Josh kept stepping BACKWARDS, before running left into 8 guys.

Philly goes straight ahead from the moment of the snap. KC won't stop that.

If KC goes 7 in the box, Hurts will carve them up. He was excellent against Washington. AJ Brown is a legitimately incredible player, his hands are just unbelievable. The ball just disappears. Smith is great in space and I have no idea what drugs Goedert is taking but I hope he keeps it up because his action after the catch these playoffs has been incredible. He looks like a completely different runner. He's a YAC god all of a sudden.

And Saquon will get his.

Buffalo was a great matchup for KC. Philly is the opposite, it's a terrible matchup. Philly is great against the pass and KC has no running game, although Philly is also GREAT against the run.

I know Mahomes is magical and he never loses and he won't lose because he never loses but Philly is a much better team. So he is going to lose.
 

Auger34

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Philly does the tush push against everyone and it works. It works because their OL is great and because Hurts is an absolute beast who does it properly, unlike Josh Allen. Hurts goes in low and strong; Allen goes in tall. Big mistake. Hurts will get that done.

What Hurts has going for him is that his receivers are outstanding. Brown and Smith and Goedert are all excellent with the ball and after the catch. My biggest concern with Philly is Hurts - can he make the throws under pressure? Hurts only threw 5 picks all season, so he takes good care of the ball, generally speaking. I can't find his stats vs. the blitz or when he's pressured, but that'll be key, as KC's pass rush is very good.

But KC really has to key on Saquon, who is obviously either the best or second best RB in football (depending on your view of Henry). He's a powerhouse and a true home run hitter. KC will have to play run D first and hope their secondary holds up against Brown, Smith, and Goedert.

And unfortunately for KC, Philly's defense is healthy, unlike Buffalo's, which was a shell of itself due to injury.

On paper, should be a great, great game. Remember, two years ago, it was a great game between these two teams, and Philly didn't have Barkley, and KC was better then.
Agree on the bolded.

Hurts's issue is that he holds onto the ball WAY too long and generally moves backwards in the pocket. This can lead to him taking some really, really stupid sacks.
 

BaseballJones

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This is wrong.

The tush push will be an option for Philly and it will work. I have no idea what Buffalo was thinking with their sneak tactics but Josh kept stepping BACKWARDS, before running left into 8 guys.

Philly goes straight ahead from the moment of the snap. KC won't stop that.

If KC goes 7 in the box, Hurts will carve them up. He was excellent against Washington. AJ Brown is a legitimately incredible player, his hands are just unbelievable. The ball just disappears. Smith is great in space and I have no idea what drugs Goedert is taking but I hope he keeps it up because his action after the catch these playoffs has been incredible. He looks like a completely different runner. He's a YAC god all of a sudden.

And Saquon will get his.

Buffalo was a great matchup for KC. Philly is the opposite, it's a terrible matchup. Philly is great against the pass and KC has no running game, although Philly is also GREAT against the run.

I know Mahomes is magical and he never loses and he won't lose because he never loses but Philly is a much better team. So he is going to lose.
Bill Burr is right though - Philly needs to be up multiple scores to make sure there's no officials "massaging" the game.
 

tims4wins

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This feels pretty much the exact same as the other Chiefs Super Bowl appearances against the Niners and Eagles. Could the Eagles beat them? Sure. Does it seem likely, especially if/when it gets to close and late? Not really.

I know this is hardly analysis, but until someone actually beats this team, it's hard to believe it's going to happen.

And whoever does it needs to be up by 2 scores in the last few minutes.
 

SoxJox

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Just a random comment: Since we left the KC-Bills game thread behind, I won't go back there but will instead comment on an issue raised several times in that thread regarding the phantom flag. I believe what happened is that several KC players were wearing bright yellow gloves and cleats, and I found myself on several occasions thinking I had seen a flag.

As far as the SB is concerned, as a Penn State alum and former RA resident, I have no qualms or reservations about rooting for the Eagles. And I believe they are worthy of that support.
 

cshea

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I think the Eagles front 7 bears some similarities to the Bucs front 7 that dominated the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
 

BusRaker

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I have no idea what Buffalo was thinking with their sneak tactics but Josh kept stepping BACKWARDS, before running left into 8 guys.
It seems that the better running QBs are usually worse at the sneak as they are used to designed runs, not sneaks. Slow not-so powerful guys like Brady do it the best because it's the only run play they practice
 

loshjott

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Regular QB sneaks have been happening for decades. The tush push is a new variation. Seems like Buffalo was using tactics of a regular sneak and also trying for a push rather than either copying Philly exactly or just doing a “normal” sneak.
 

cshea

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Yeah, the Eagles will be able to tush push. They are the best at it. I don't think the Chiefs stopped the Bills when they tried it as much as the Bills failed to execute. For whatever reason Allen went sideways to the left instead of plunging forward. It was like he was trying to go through a gap but that's not how the tush push works. You go right over the ass of your center. Hurts puts his leg in the ground and plunges forward everytime. It's a guranteed yard.
 

Curtis Pride

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https://x.com/TBagleySports/status/1883712518742589792

View attachment 95379

Here's the most digestible link I could find.

I'm obviously not putting much stock in the 1 seed Eagles against the expansion Texans but recent history favors andy.

This doesn't include the 2022 Super Bowl where Fangio was a consultant and Andy put on a 2nd half clinic against their defense.
I don't think it's just Reid who beats Fangio, it's Reid plus Mahomes. These are the QB's Reid had in each of these games:
2002: Donovan McNabb
2011: Michael Vick
2014: Alex Smith
2015: Alex Smith
2019-203: Patrick Mahomes

However, even against Mahomes, Fangio's defenses have been able to limit the Chiefs offense to 23-21 points in 4 out of 8 meetings. The offenses he had just couldn't keep up.

This year's Eagles team has scored 27.2 points per game, 7th best in the league. They've allowed 17.8 p/g, 2nd best in the NFL. (Chargers were 1st, 301 PA, Eagles: 303 PA)

Also, the Chiefs had been held to fewer than 20 points four times this season. (I'm not counting the Week 18 38-0 loss to the Broncos when they rested their starters.) The Broncos held the Chiefs to 16 points in their first meeting, the Chargers held them under 20 points in both games, and the Raiders held them to 19.

So the Eagles can win by holding the Chiefs to under 20 points and scoring more than 20 points themselves. And I think they have the personnel to do it.
 

Hoya81

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And KC is fully healthy right now. Philly has two key offensive linemen really banged up.
There’s been some joking talk about Philly bringing back Kelce for a last hurrah, but a year of rust plus him looking noticeably smaller since retirement probably makes that unlikely.
 

ilol@u

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Brady mentioned a unique observation, that when Hurts keeps the ball for 3-4-5 seconds, bad things happen. With Spags being blitz happy, if Hurts is able to be assertive and let AJ/Smith/Goedert do their thing, while riding Barkley's explosiveness, the Eagles will roll offensively.

My biggest concern was the Buccaneers/Eagles game last year, where the Bucs blitzed Hurts something stupid like 80% of the time, and they shut down the run threat, rattled him ,and disrupted the offense.
 

johnmd20

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Brady mentioned a unique observation, that when Hurts keeps the ball for 3-4-5 seconds, bad things happen. With Spags being blitz happy, if Hurts is able to be assertive and let AJ/Smith/Goedert do their thing, while riding Barkley's explosiveness, the Eagles will roll offensively.

My biggest concern was the Buccaneers/Eagles game last year, where the Bucs blitzed Hurts something stupid like 80% of the time, and they shut down the run threat, rattled him ,and disrupted the offense.
That game last year was a different team. They had given up, especially the defense. They literally weren't tackling.(it was a truly embarrassing performance) I'm not sure that is the best comp for this 2024 team. The Eagles defense is AWESOME right now. I said it before the Washington and I'm saying it before the Chiefs game. The Eagles are going to win because of the defense and what Mahomes saw this week is going to be completely different than what he sees in two weeks.
 

rodderick

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This feels pretty much the exact same as the other Chiefs Super Bowl appearances against the Niners and Eagles. Could the Eagles beat them? Sure. Does it seem likely, especially if/when it gets to close and late? Not really.

I know this is hardly analysis, but until someone actually beats this team, it's hard to believe it's going to happen.

And whoever does it needs to be up by 2 scores in the last few minutes.
Yup. The Chiefs just always perform 0.5% better than the opponent, no matter how good the opponent is. They'll win, because they have seemingly just figured out how to win regardless of what actually happens in the game.
 

ilol@u

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That game last year was a different team. They had given up, especially the defense. They literally weren't tackling.(it was a truly embarrassing performance) I'm not sure that is the best comp for this 2024 team. The Eagles defense is AWESOME right now. I said it before the Washington and I'm saying it before the Chiefs game. The Eagles are going to win because of the defense and what Mahomes saw this week is going to be completely different than what he sees in two weeks.
Fully agreed about the comparison. The defense is much stronger this year and Saquon completely changed the dynamic of the offense.

The only reason I mentioned the Buccaneers playoff game was being Spags is known to blitz a bunch, and the Buccaneers did that for essentially the full game. The Eagles O was a complete disaster, all the Bucs D did was blitz blitz blitz, and Jalen was forced to make quick reads which he was hesitant in doing, he tried extending plays and either got sacked, threw it away, or didn't do much. Eagles only scored 9 the entire game. Granted no AJ Brown, no Saquon Barkley - howvever something to keep in mind about Jalen.
 
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Auger34

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And KC is fully healthy right now. Philly has two key offensive linemen really banged up.
That's true but they both did play in the game. I would imagine that with 2 weeks off, plus some fancy injections, they will be able to play.

KC's OL does have a weak point though. Caliendo at LG. I imagine that Jalen Carter will be lining up over him the entire game
 

Oil Can Dan

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I’m having nightmares of Ju Ju going for 150 and two TDs. Not because he’s awesome, just because Chiefs.
 

dynomite

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That game last year was a different team. They had given up, especially the defense. They literally weren't tackling.(it was a truly embarrassing performance) I'm not sure that is the best comp for this 2024 team. The Eagles defense is AWESOME right now. I said it before the Washington and I'm saying it before the Chiefs game. The Eagles are going to win because of the defense and what Mahomes saw this week is going to be completely different than what he sees in two weeks.
The Chiefs defense is pretty good in their own right -- they're why they went 15-2 in the regular season.

Frankly, it's just a really good game that probably matches up the best team in the AFC with the best team in the NFC. This isn't one of those years where it's disappointing because it feels like the best teams didn't end up in the Super Bowl.

I would have guessed you guys would hate Giants more but idk
Personally a Jets-Giants SB is always my nightmare, all people from NYC would be insufferable.

Chiefs-Giants would be similarly upsetting for this reason -- you either cement the Giants as "Giant killers" or have Mahomes do something Brady never could (to dumb ESPN talking heads).

As far as the Eagles, I like Hurts and think what Saquon is doing is incredible (and particularly funny given how it makes Giants fans feel). I'll be fine if they win.

I think Chiefs-Cowboys is somewhere on the list as well of Super Bowls I do not want to see (no, you're not America's Team if you haven't made an NFC Championship Game this century).
 

j44thor

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One really key loss for PHI is LB Nakobe Dean. Ertz had a monster game for WAS which should be a bit concerning. They might be able to play Zack Baun on Kelce but then who spies Mahomes? Reid is great at targeting weaknesses in a defense just look at how much the took advantage of Elam having to play CB for BUF.
I think they are going to attack the somewhat depleted PHI LBs which plays directly into their strength to begin with.
 

Sandwich Pick

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That game last year was a different team. They had given up, especially the defense. They literally weren't tackling.(it was a truly embarrassing performance) I'm not sure that is the best comp for this 2024 team. The Eagles defense is AWESOME right now. I said it before the Washington and I'm saying it before the Chiefs game. The Eagles are going to win because of the defense and what Mahomes saw this week is going to be completely different than what he sees in two weeks.
Also, unlike 2022, I'm happier knowing that they don't live and die by the sack. They had something like 70 sacks that year and couldn't get home to sack Mahomes. They had 41 in the regular season this year and that's after losing Reddick and Huff not doing much to replace him.
 

Sandwich Pick

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I don't think it's just Reid who beats Fangio, it's Reid plus Mahomes. These are the QB's Reid had in each of these games:
2002: Donovan McNabb
2011: Michael Vick
2014: Alex Smith
2015: Alex Smith
2019-203: Patrick Mahomes

However, even against Mahomes, Fangio's defenses have been able to limit the Chiefs offense to 23-21 points in 4 out of 8 meetings. The offenses he had just couldn't keep up.

This year's Eagles team has scored 27.2 points per game, 7th best in the league. They've allowed 17.8 p/g, 2nd best in the NFL. (Chargers were 1st, 301 PA, Eagles: 303 PA)

Also, the Chiefs had been held to fewer than 20 points four times this season. (I'm not counting the Week 18 38-0 loss to the Broncos when they rested their starters.) The Broncos held the Chiefs to 16 points in their first meeting, the Chargers held them under 20 points in both games, and the Raiders held them to 19.

So the Eagles can win by holding the Chiefs to under 20 points and scoring more than 20 points themselves. And I think they have the personnel to do it.
I dont remember much about those games so I'll have to put the bat signal out to @j-man to elaborate further.

My hunch is that even if the games were close, every time the Broncos needed a big stop on D, they didn't make one. Was that indeed the gist of those matchups?
 

DanoooME

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One really key loss for PHI is LB Nakobe Dean. Ertz had a monster game for WAS which should be a bit concerning. They might be able to play Zack Baun on Kelce but then who spies Mahomes? Reid is great at targeting weaknesses in a defense just look at how much the took advantage of Elam having to play CB for BUF.
I think they are going to attack the somewhat depleted PHI LBs which plays directly into their strength to begin with.
Oren Burks has played pretty well in Dean's place, so while it's a drop-off, it's not cataclysmic.

My guess is they find a way to get 2 guys on Kelce and let the corners handle the WRs with one safety in support.
 

j-man

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I dont remember much about those games so I'll have to put the bat signal out to @j-man to elaborate further.

My hunch is that even if the games were close, every time the Broncos needed a big stop on D, they didn't make one. Was that indeed the gist of those matchups?
the games in 2019 were very 1-sided toward KC 30-6 ON thur night football in den and 23-3 KC at arrowhead did not have a lot of talent
2020 KC beat us 43-16 in den but at KC we only lost by 6
2021 played bad at kc loseing 22-9 but only losing by 4 in vic last game 28-24
 

Salva135

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I always thought the Pats dynasty would take decades to surpass given the watered-down nature of the league - I never could have imagined the Chiefs could surpass it so quickly.

A Chiefs threepeat not only puts a feather in their cap they never had, it moves Reid to an easily surpassable 28 playoff wins to BB's 31 and Mahomes to 4 SBs at 29 years old. I'd say it's 100% that Andy Reid surpasses BB and 50-50 Mahomes surpasses Brady.
 

Silverdude2167

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I always thought the Pats dynasty would take decades to surpass given the watered-down nature of the league - I never could have imagined the Chiefs could surpass it so quickly.

A Chiefs threepeat not only puts a feather in their cap they never had, it moves Reid to an easily surpassable 28 playoff wins to BB's 31 and Mahomes to 4 SBs at 29 years old. I'd say it's 100% that Andy Reid surpasses BB and 50-50 Mahomes surpasses Brady.
Thankfully the teams and players played each other, so no matter what people will eventually say. Reid could not beat BB and Mahomes could not beat Brady.

I am not sure a single Chiefs SB team would have beaten a Pats SB team except for the 01 team.
 

Salva135

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Thankfully the teams and players played each other, so no matter what people will eventually say. Reid could not beat BB and Mahomes could not beat Brady.

I am not sure a single Chiefs SB team would have beaten a Pats SB team except for the 01 team.
Those discussions are for the NFL historians. Mahomes and Reid are currently en route to surpass the Brady/BB historical records in quite swift fashion. A win next week is a record those guys never accomplished.
 

Silverdude2167

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Those discussions are for the NFL historians. Mahomes and Reid are currently en route to surpass the Brady/BB historical records in quite swift fashion. A win next week is a record those guys never accomplished.
Yeah 3 more SuperBowl wins are guaranteed, and swiftly at that.
 

Salva135

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Yeah 3 more SuperBowl wins are guaranteed, and swiftly at that.
I said they are currently en route to do so, which they are with a win next Sunday. If Mahomes gets to 4 on Sunday I put 8 career total at 50-50. Reid will get 32 without a doubt. I'll leave it to you to break down the pace of the Chiefs vs BB/Brady Pats, but I'm guessing the rate is quite comparable. I'm not happy with it, but what we are witnessing is impressive and very unexpected from a probability perspective imo.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I will say this, with media day still pending tomorrow -

With the NBA trades the past 48 hours, and the overall fatigue of KC/PHI, no one is really talking about the NFL today as Super Bowl week starts. I'm curious if that keeps up
 

soxhop411

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Another reason to root for Phi

If you're watching Sunday's Super Bowl 59 matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefsas a neutral observer, your pet may be wanting you to root for the Eagles.

That's because Chewy, the national online pet retailer, is offering to give away 59,000 free treats for birds, dogs and cats if the Eagles beat the Chiefs.

"While we don't play favorites, we have a soft spot for all animals," the company said in a news release. "And we believe a win for an animal team should be a win for pets everywhere."

If the Eagles do win, the company said it will release a promo code that can be redeemed for select treats at Chewy.com. The code will be revealed on the brand's Instagram story following the game, and will be open to everyone for one week, or until supplies last.

"Best of luck to the Birds!" Chewy concluded in the news release.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/02/03/chewy-free-treats-eagles-super-bowl-2025/78184098007/
 

RS2004foreever

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Thankfully the teams and players played each other, so no matter what people will eventually say. Reid could not beat BB and Mahomes could not beat Brady.

I am not sure a single Chiefs SB team would have beaten a Pats SB team except for the 01 team.
Does anyone think the Pats win in 2018 if they lose the coin flip?
 

johnmd20

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There is a very sad world where the Pats have maybe 1 SB (2004 in my opinion). Most games could flip on something small.
Could have been 1, could have been 9. Every game turned on basically one play, except for the Falcons game which turned on like 15 separate plays.
 

tims4wins

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Could have been 1, could have been 9. Every game turned on basically one play, except for the Falcons game which turned on like 15 separate plays.
Could have been 11 IMO. 2006 and 2015 were blown AFCCGs that turned on single plays with inferior NFC teams waiting in the SB.
 

axx

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There is a very sad world where the Pats have maybe 1 SB (2004 in my opinion). Most games could flip on something small.
McNabb getting sick probably killed any chances of completing the comeback... but they did have the ball with 40 seconds left down 3.