Super Benintendi

williams_482

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At what point do those numbers become meaningful? If 92 PA isn't enough -- and you may well be right that it isn't -- what would be?
Let's forget about the Home/Road half of this for a moment. If all we cared about was estimating his platoon skill ability, The Book says we need to add 1,000 PAs of average split performance (that is, Benintendi's overall line with a league average platoon split applied) against left handed pitchers to his actual performance. His existing 194 PAs are very nearly meaningless by comparison, forming roughly 16% of the regressed sample.

Now if we want to estimate his "at home vs L" talent, we are going to need to regress even more heavily, because we don't have any strong priors that the ability to hit same handed pitching in certain ballparks is a separate skill than simply being able to hit same handed pitching.

Put another way, you will be able to find some layered split like this that makes pretty much any player of Benintendi's experience level look similarly awful if you try.

In short, Benintendi shouldn't be platooned (certainly not with Mitch Moreland) unless his overall batting line continues to suffer for an extended stretch, or he goes annother 4+ years with similarly extreme L/R splits.

I know "we don't have anywhere near enough information" is boring, but in this case and in nearly every other discussion on platoon splits in this forum, it's easily the best answer we have.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I was under the impression that they reset the tax last year, so they would be willing to to go over for a year because the penalties aren't prohibitive the 1st year. I think for the right player, they'll go over if they are still in contention.
They're already over the cap. Waaaaay over the cap. Far enough over that they're going to pay a higher percentage penalty (32%) than they would have had they not reset last year (from minimum of 30% to 20%). They are currently about $3M from hitting the next threshold which would increase their penalty to 62% AND cost them a draft pick. They have no room to bring on the "right player" unless it's someone making league minimum or if it involves sending a significant salary away to offset. And there's no way they're bringing up Rusney and his $11M cap hit.
 

Reverend

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Do park factors really influence things like hard hit rate? I can see the argument the Fenways right field is impacting Beni's ability to pull homeruns, but it shouldn't impact his ability to square up the ball and hit it hard.
Some guys have been forthright recently about how, coming to Boston, that Wall can mess with a hitter because it seems so promising... and then they screw up their approach.

I don't know if that's the case here, but "they" (I don't have links handy, apologies.) also say it can be worked out.
 

SumnerH

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Do park factors really influence things like hard hit rate?
Park factors affect walk rate in a statistically significant way. Possibly better/worse contrast with the background, possibly feeling more/less aggressive because of a tempting wall/short porch, who knows.

But given that, I'd be surprised if there wasn't some effect on hard hit rate as well.
 

sean1562

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Crazy how dramatically overpaid Castillo ended up being. JD is looking to be the only big FA signing for us that has worked recently. Wonder what this team would look like without panda and with a serviceable Rusney Castillo
 

DeadlySplitter

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They're already over the cap. Waaaaay over the cap. Far enough over that they're going to pay a higher percentage penalty (32%) than they would have had they not reset last year (from minimum of 30% to 20%). They are currently about $3M from hitting the next threshold which would increase their penalty to 62% AND cost them a draft pick. They have no room to bring on the "right player" unless it's someone making league minimum or if it involves sending a significant salary away to offset. And there's no way they're bringing up Rusney and his $11M cap hit.
how much is actually coming off the books this offseason? because right now Hanley's option is going to vest....
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Crazy how dramatically overpaid Castillo ended up being. JD is looking to be the only big FA signing for us that has worked recently. Wonder what this team would look like without panda and with a serviceable Rusney Castillo
Hanley might turn out to be a good signing.

And Moncada wasn't a cheap signing and got us Chris Sale, so i would say that worked out ok.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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how much is actually coming off the books this offseason? because right now Hanley's option is going to vest....
The only potential salaries coming off the books are Kimbrel ($13M), Pomeranz ($8.5M) and Kelly ($3.85M). And Price has his opt-out ($31M) which isn't something to count on.

There is currently about $137M committed on next year's books for luxury tax calculation, including projected benefits. That figure doesn't include Hanley's option ($22M), Sale's option ($15M), or any of the arbitration players like Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, etc. It's entirely possible that most of the "savings" if the free agents aren't re-signed goes right into paying those arbitration increases. Arbitration salaries are around $36M now and will go up at least $20M to keep all of them.

The only silver lining for the 2019 team is the luxury tax cap is going up by $9M ($197M to $206M), thus all the added penalty thresholds go up too. So in theory, they'll have an extra $9M to play with without exceeding the maximum penalty threshold they're bumping up against now. Whether Henry is keen to use it is another question.
 

sean1562

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So does Andrew seem like an absolute terrible baserunner to anyone else? That play last night just looked terrible and killed what could have been a 2 out bases loaded situation. I feel like I have seen him make numerous poor choices on the base paths.
 

mfried

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He doesn’t seem like a dumb player. I don’t get these base running failures.
 

grimshaw

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So does Andrew seem like an absolute terrible baserunner to anyone else? That play last night just looked terrible and killed what could have been a 2 out bases loaded situation. I feel like I have seen him make numerous poor choices on the base paths.
He can be frustrating for sure, but there are definitely signs he is improving.

Last year he was tied for 2nd worst in MLB in outs while making "baserunning plays" with 11.
So far this year he has 2, so baby steps there at least since they are a quarter of the way through.

He also has 7 steals without getting caught and was 80% last year Pillar and Trout are the only guys with more steals without getting caught.

His BsR is 2.2 so far this year which is tied for 13th. He was 52nd last year.
 
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tims4wins

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So does Andrew seem like an absolute terrible baserunner to anyone else? That play last night just looked terrible and killed what could have been a 2 out bases loaded situation. I feel like I have seen him make numerous poor choices on the base paths.
There are various posts about this on the first page of the thread. There are only like 60 posts in this thread, would it hurt to read through before you post something like this? Try harder.
 

Pitt the Elder

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He can be frustrating for sure, but there are definitely signs he is improving.

Last year he was tied for 2nd worst in MLB in outs while making "baserunning plays" with 11.
So far this year he has 2, so baby steps there at least since they are a quarter of the way through.

He also has 7 steals without getting caught and was 80% last year Pillar and Trout are the only guys with more steals without getting caught.

His BsR is 2.2 so far this year which is tied for 13th. He was 52nd last year.
I was about to come here and post something similar. By all objective measures, Beni is a net-positive contributor on the bases. It's interesting to consider that BsR is an aggregate stat that combines UBR (ultimate base running), wGDP (weighted grounded into double play), and wSB (weighted stolen base runs). His component stats for each are UBR = 0.1, wGDP = 0.8, wSB = 1.3, where he ranks 79th, 6th,10th respectively. As a point of comparison, Betts has a lower BsR of 1.8, but that's with a breakdown of UBR = 0.8, wGDP = -0.1, wSB = 1.1, which rank 41st, 100th, and 12th. So, it's fair to say that Beni's baserunning value is largely driven by his ability to steal bases at a high percentage and his ability to stay out of double plays. His value patrolling the bases is essentially league average, which supports the observation that his poor baserunning decision-making is offsetting his superior speed.
 

Pitt the Elder

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Also, to build on what others have said, Beni's 2018 numbers have basically normalized back to his career averages:

SeasonBB %K %BB/KAVGOPBSLGOPSISOBsRSpdBABIPwRC+
20168.5%21.2%0.400.2950.3590.4760.8350.1810.85.20.367122
201710.6%17.0%0.630.2710.3520.4240.7760.1541.44.50.301103
201811.9%16.9%0.700.2660.3500.4420.7920.1752.28.30.307110


SeasonGB/FBLD%GB%FB%IFFB%HR/FB%PULL%CENT%OPPO %HARD %
20160.9425.0%36.3%38.8%9.7%6.5%43.9%29.3%26.8%32.9%
20171.0421.5%40.1%38.4%10.1%11.2%34.3%37.0%28.7%34.3%
20181.0420.6%40.5%38.9%8.2%6.1%43.7%27.0%29.4%21.4%


SeasonBarrelsBarrel %Exit VelocityLaunch AngleXBAXSLGXWOBAWOBAHard Hit %PA/HR
201633.70%86.314.40.2300.3620.2940.3570.26858.8
2017255.50%87.114.20.2500.4310.3370.3320.33233.3
201854.80%87.514.50.2410.3980.3210.3380.31058.8
 

grimshaw

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His value patrolling the bases is essentially league average, which supports the observation that his poor baserunning decision-making is offsetting his superior speed.
Ya, he also took extra bases (1st to 3rd or scoring from 2nd on singles, or from 1st on doubles) 44% of the time last year 5% better than league average (39% to 44%). It's a lot lower so far this year, but I'm not sure if it has stabilized yet since it is more a function of where those balls are hit.
 

teddywingman

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Edit: In response to Pitt The Elder

I appreciate your post, so don't take this the wrong way or feel discouraged from presenting other Ultimate Base Running statistics. But in my estimation, any statistic that says Benintendi has been a better base runner than Betts this season is a misleading statistic.
 

Pitt the Elder

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Edit: In response to Pitt The Elder

I appreciate your post, so don't take thus the wrong way or feel discouraged from presenting other Ultimate Base Running statistics. But in my estimation, any statistic that says Benintendi has been a better baserunner than Betts this season is a misleading statistic.
I'm not sure how sensitive these stats are and how big of a sample they need to normalize (possibly a lot more?) but I would kindly ask that you show your work. Besides anecdotal evidence, could you provide any hard evidence that backs this up?

Edit:
For what it's worth, here's how Fangraphs describes the use of BsR:

BsR is a measure of past value and you need more than a full season of data for it to become a reasonably strong predictor of future BsR. This is a function of the typical number of base running plays that a player can make during a season to dramatically affect their rating, but it is also important to remember that base running, like any other statistic, is susceptible to random variation and true talent fluctuation.

As a simple recommendation, it’s best to look at BsR as a pretty good measure of how much value that player has added on the bases while also recognizing that some regression to the player’s career average or league average should be included when trying to forecast future base running skill.
It can be accurate to say that Beni has thus far provided more value on the bases in 2018 than Betts AND that Betts is a better baserunner that will provide more value going forward.
 
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teddywingman

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I'm not sure how sensitive these stats are and how big of a sample they need to normalize (possibly a lot more?) but I would kindly ask that you show your work.
The thing is, not everything in baseball is quantifiable in cold hard numbers. But this season isn't even 45 games old, so I'm going to use some anecdotal evidence (gasp) along with some numbers.

Benintendi is a very good base stealer. There's no question about that. He's 7 for 7 while Mookie is only 8 for 9. That one Mookie caught stealing was close as could be and required a perfect throw. Sorry, anecdotes.

Benintendi has been tagged out on the bases at least 3 times this year in situations where there was no justifiable reason where it should have happened. Can you name one instance in which Betts made a poor decision resulting in an out?

The game on April 25 in Toronto where Benintendi got himself picked off 2nd base with a pointless and stupid lead with two outs, in a tight game and JDM at the plate, how do you quantify that? Martinez resumed his AB to start the next inning with a line drive hit off Estrada. Of course, we'll never know if that would have happened while JDM was hitting when Beni got himself picked off for the last out. Are there any Betts blunders this year that are similar?

How about that play last night with Benintendi running past third base. That was dumb as rocks and pretty important in retrospect, no? How do you quantify that? Do you have a similar comparison to a Betts mistake on the basepaths?

Mookie has scored 43 runs, while Beni has scored 28. Sure there's about 9 different reasons for that, but it would be closer if Benintendi wasn't finding new ways to make outs.
 

Pitt the Elder

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The thing is, not everything in baseball is quantifiable in cold hard numbers. But this season isn't even 45 games old, so I'm going to use some anecdotal evidence (gasp) along with some numbers.

Benintendi is a very good base stealer. There's no question about that. He's 7 for 7 while Mookie is only 8 for 9. That one Mookie caught stealing was close as could be and required a perfect throw. Sorry, anecdotes.

Benintendi has been tagged out on the bases at least 3 times this year in situations where there was no justifiable reason where it should have happened. Can you name one instance in which Betts made a poor decision resulting in an out?

The game on April 25 in Toronto where Benintendi got himself picked off 2nd base with a pointless and stupid lead with two outs, in a tight game and JDM at the plate, how do you quantify that? Martinez resumed his AB to start the next inning with a line drive hit off Estrada. Of course, we'll never know if that would have happened while JDM was hitting when Beni got himself picked off for the last out. Are there any Betts blunders this year that are similar?

How about that play last night with Benintendi running past third base. That was dumb as rocks and pretty important in retrospect, no? How do you quantify that? Do you have a similar comparison to a Betts mistake on the basepaths?

Mookie has scored 43 runs, while Beni has scored 28. Sure there's about 9 different reasons for that, but it would be closer if Benintendi wasn't finding new ways to make outs.
I think you've built up quite a a strawman from the argument I was trying to make, which was that Beni's base running, by the empirical evidence we have available to us in the way of BsR and its component stats and despite some salient gaffes, has been surprisingly net positive in 2018. To underscore this surprisng and perhaps nonintuitive point, I used Beni's league ranks to show how he placed among his peers and even showed his breakdown by UBR, wSB, and wGIDP to try and tease out why his value is positive despite some poor decisions and outs on the bases, which, to the best of my knowledge, are baked into the UBR number.

I used Betts as a comparison point and a reality check when putting Beni's stats in context. Where was I trying to argue that Beni was a better baserunner than Betts? Historical BsR evidence suggests just the opposite, and I effectively acknowledge that by stating that the 2018 BsR stat is just an accounting of base running value to date and likely has little predictive value. And man, I love Betts and think he's one of the best players in the league, but sometimes the stats help us see truths that our biases otherwise cloud us against. I think there's a growing bias against Beni due to some boner plays that obscures his real contribution on the bases. If you want to argue that he's failing to reach his full potential and thus reach Bettsian heights of 8-10 BsR in a full season (which Betts has done multiple times), that's fair, but he's not Kendrys Morales on the bases.

And for what it's worth, Bett's caught stealing tonight will probably drop his BsR. I'lI have to wait and see if BsR is smart enough to account for Beni's inability to reach first on that passed ball, but perhaps it's not. If it isn't, that's a good example of a limitation of the stat and offers a cautionary warning of putting complete faith in them.

EDIT:
As an additional note, Betts also failed to score from second on a single to center (something that may also lower his BsR) and it was played off in the game thread as a "poor read." If that were Beni, it's not hard to imagine the reaction. In fact, we don't have to...after failing to reach first on the passed ball, he was called a "really dumb baserunner" with "poor situational awareness." Maybe that reaction is well-earned, but it seems to be more than a little confirmation bias.
 
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teddywingman

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I certainly don't mean to denigrate Beni as much as I have lately. He's got everything you could want from an outfielder. MVP potential, just seems like he is not the best at situational awareneas.
 

Reverend

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I think you guys are having the equivalent of a rate stat versus a counting stat argument.

There's a player's true ability (whatever that means), his potential, what he's doing at any given moment, what he's done, etc.

I think you guys are talking about "true ability" versus this year's counting stats, so there's not really necessarily any real disagreement, just two very passionate about baseball ships passing each other in the night.
 

BestGameEvah

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Benintendi has been tagged out on the bases at least 3 times this year in situations where there was no justifiable reason where it should have happened. Can you name one instance in which Betts made a poor decision resulting in an out?
Actually, yes! Both outs on the bases by Betts!
3.29 picked off 1st by Ramos vs Tampa
5.14 Too far off 2nd on a ball hit in front of him to Semien vs A's.
 

teddywingman

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Actually, yes! Both outs on the bases by Betts!
3.29 picked off 1st by Ramos vs Tampa
5.14 Too far off 2nd on a ball hit in front of him to Semien vs A's.
On the ball hit to Semien there was nothing he could do. That play was just bad luck.

And wait, I went back to the game thread. Wasn't that the play where he induced a run down that allowed a run to score and Hanley to reach 2nd? That was an example of excellent baserunning and situational awareness.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Last 15 games: 67 PA .411/.478/.804.

Now has an OPS of .899 for the year. Still amazed some people were acting like he was a finished product in his 2nd season of MLB, and that he was never going to be much more than an average hitter.

So much for that.
 

TFisNEXT

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Last 15 games: 67 PA .411/.478/.804.

Now has an OPS of .899 for the year. Still amazed some people were acting like he was a finished product in his 2nd season of MLB, and that he was never going to be much more than an average hitter.

So much for that.
He was also quite streaky last year in oscillating fashion. Probably not abnormal for a younger player to have to keep readjusting to the approaches that MLB pitchers are taking against him.

Going crudely, OPS by month last year (Apr numbers include reg season March and Sep numbers include reg season Oct):
Apr: .870
May: .602
Jun: .895
Jul: .643
Aug: .979
Sep: .672

But yeah, anyone who thought a 23 year old coming off his first full season in the majors was a finished product isn't really paying attention to historical growth curves. He's off to the same oscillating start this season, but the baseline numbers are a good 100+ points higher on OPS...hopefully that is a sign of growth as a hitter...2018 OPS numbers:

Mar/Apr: .740
May......: 1.055

If he can OPS in the .700s in his bad months instead of .600s and in the 1.000s in his good months instead of .800s and .900s, then you are starting to get into top 10-15 hitter territory. We'll see if he can keep it up in 2018.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Last 15 games: 67 PA .411/.478/.804.

Now has an OPS of .899 for the year. Still amazed some people were acting like he was a finished product in his 2nd season of MLB, and that he was never going to be much more than an average hitter.

So much for that.
Really? You were amazed there were folks here who want to make decisions based on 6 weeks of results (or less)?

Welcome to SoSH, where at least one of the S's in our name stands for Snap Judgement.
 

Pitt the Elder

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Updates on his ytd stats:

SeasonBB %K %BB/KAVGOPBSLGOPSISOBsRSpdBABIPwRC+
20168.5%21.2%0.400.2950.3590.4760.8350.1810.85.20.367122
201710.6%17.0%0.630.2710.3520.4240.7760.1541.44.50.301103
201812.4%16.0%0.780.2920.3780.5210.8990.2292.57.80.32139


SeasonBarrelsBarrel %Exit VelocityLaunch AngleXBAXSLGXWOBAWOBAHard Hit %PA/HR
201633.70%86.314.40.2300.3620.2940.35726.8%58.8
2017255.50%87.114.20.2500.4310.3370.33233.2%33.3
2018117.10%87.814.70.2540.4380.3430.36532.2%32.1
 

Cesar Crespo

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Really? You were amazed there were folks here who want to make decisions based on 6 weeks of results (or less)?

Welcome to SoSH, where at least one of the S's in our name stands for Snap Judgement.
Not so much that, more so citing his career stats like he's a 10 year vet. Of course, a few were getting on Devers already too so... point taken.
 

Apisith

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Updates on his ytd stats:

SeasonBB %K %BB/KAVGOPBSLGOPSISOBsRSpdBABIPwRC+
20168.5%21.2%0.400.2950.3590.4760.8350.1810.85.20.367122
201710.6%17.0%0.630.2710.3520.4240.7760.1541.44.50.301103
201812.4%16.0%0.780.2920.3780.5210.8990.2292.57.80.32139


SeasonBarrelsBarrel %Exit VelocityLaunch AngleXBAXSLGXWOBAWOBAHard Hit %PA/HR
201633.70%86.314.40.2300.3620.2940.35726.8%58.8
2017255.50%87.114.20.2500.4310.3370.33233.2%33.3
2018117.10%87.814.70.2540.4380.3430.36532.2%32.1
Walking more, striking out less, hitting it on the sweet spot more often.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yup, the steady progress across all the basic components is really encouraging to contemplate. Even his performance vs. LHP is a little better (80 wRC+ after years of 15 and 71), though obviously there's still plenty of room for improvement there.
Considering how awful he started the year vs L, that is something.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't recall his production vs LHP being a problem in the minors. Given his profile (+ hit tool, patient approach) it seems like he'd a prime candidate to improve with increased exposure.
Your recollection is correct. He hit lefties in the minors, which gives me hope he will in the majors.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Last 21 games: 96 PA .383/.458/.716, .373 BAbip. 5 2b, 2 3b, 6 HRs, 12bb/10k. 4sb/1cs.
First 32 games: 142 PA .244/.331/.390, .296 BAbip. 9 2b, 3 3b, 1 HR, 17bb/26k. 5sb/0cs.

He's basically been playing as good as Mookie Betts for the last month.

Slashing .299/.382/.520 for the year. His OPS of .920 is 17th in all of baseball and 9th in the AL.

He's on pace for 40 doubles, 14 triples, 20 HRs and 26 sb. There have only been 7 seasons where a player has totaled at least 40 doubles, 10 triples, 20 HRs and 20 SB. There has only been one season ever where a player had 40, 15, 20, and 20. I can't tell who that season belongs to since I don't have a subscription but here:

1 player
7 players

Can anyone tell me who that 1 player is?

I know Jimmy Rollins is one of the 7. Jose Reyes came close but only hit 19 HRs.
 

bosockboy

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Last 21 games: 96 PA .383/.458/.716, .373 BAbip. 5 2b, 2 3b, 6 HRs, 12bb/10k. 4sb/1cs.
First 32 games: 142 PA .244/.331/.390, .296 BAbip. 9 2b, 3 3b, 1 HR, 17bb/26k. 5sb/0cs.

He's basically been playing as good as Mookie Betts for the last month.

Slashing .299/.382/.520 for the year. His OPS of .920 is 17th in all of baseball and 9th in the AL.

He's on pace for 40 doubles, 14 triples, 20 HRs and 26 sb. There have only been 7 seasons where a player has totaled at least 40 doubles, 10 triples, 20 HRs and 20 SB. There has only been one season ever where a player had 40, 15, 20, and 20. I can't tell who that season belongs to since I don't have a subscription but here:

1 player
7 players

Can anyone tell me who that 1 player is?

I know Jimmy Rollins is one of the 7. Jose Reyes came close but only hit 19 HRs.
George Brett is close on the second one. His 1979:

42 doubles
20 triples
23 HR
17 SB

Not even his .390 season. Brett is incredibly underrated actually.
 

judyb

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I do wonder if his total lack of AAA time is at least part of the cause of his base running issues. Is AAA where most players get used to defenses that actually make those plays and it adjusts their instincts?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
He's on pace for 40 doubles, 14 triples, 20 HRs and 26 sb. There have only been 7 seasons where a player has totaled at least 40 doubles, 10 triples, 20 HRs and 20 SB. There has only been one season ever where a player had 40, 15, 20, and 20. I can't tell who that season belongs to since I don't have a subscription but here:

1 player
7 players

Can anyone tell me who that 1 player is?
Chuck Klein, 1932. That's a lot of steals for that era.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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George Brett is close on the second one. His 1979:

42 doubles
20 triples
23 HR
17 SB

Not even his .390 season. Brett is incredibly underrated actually.
I was sure that either Andre Dawson or Tim Raines had this for the old 80’s Expos, but nope. Dawson always had a few too few doubles, while Raines had a few too few homers.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I was sure that either Andre Dawson or Tim Raines had this for the old 80’s Expos, but nope. Dawson always had a few too few doubles, while Raines had a few too few homers.
It shows just how arbitrary the list is, but it's still an impressive feat.
 

Pitt the Elder

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A few of Beni's other MLB rankings:
  • 15th in fWAR (2.0)
  • 21st in wRC+ (140)
  • 17th in wOBA (.382)
  • 14th in BsR (2.3)
According to Fangraphs, he's essentially been as valuable to this team as JDM (2.0 fWAR) or Sale (2.1 fWAR), though bref is less bullish on him at just 1.4 bWAR compared to 2.1 and 2.5 for JDM and Sale.
 

rhswanzey

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 17, 2017
111
Monmouth, ME
It's not just LHP with Benintendi: It's LHP + Fenway.

Here are his career platoon splits:

vs. RHP: 119 wRC+ (706 PA)
vs. LHP: 52 (194)

Now his career home/road splits:

Home: 97 (422)
Road: 111 (478)

Now the four combined splits:

Home vs. RHP: 120 (329)
Road vs. RHP: 118 (377)
Road vs. LHP: 85 (101)
Home vs. LHP: 16 (93)

Against RHP, he's pretty much the same hitter at home or on the road. Vs. LHP, he's a bad hitter on the road, but not quite a disaster. At home, he's an unmitigated train wreck. He should simply never start a game at Fenway against a lefthanded starter until he shows signs of figuring this out.
Benintendi has cured his ills versus lefties at home, and is now hitting a solid .261/.320/.435 , good for a 103 wRC+ as a LHH 23 YO sophomore.

Unfortunately, he is an unmitigated train wreck on the road vs LHP at .143/.280/.238, a 46 wRC+. He should simply never start a game on the road against a lefthanded starter until he shows signs of figuring this out.

Numbers!