Super Benintendi

bosox79

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Dec 22, 2002
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Greenwell also wasn't just a better hitter, he was a far, far better hitter up to this point and then fell off something smaller than a cliff.

After his first 2 full seasons, he had an OPS+ of 155 in 331 games, 1223 PA. After that, he had an OPS+ of 111, 14.0 WAR for the rest of his career (938 games, 3943 PA) until he was out of the league at 32. I was really young at the time so I don't remember what caused the drop off after 1988. Looking at the stats, it looks like he temporary lost the ability to hit lefties. It wasn't health related, at least not until his age 28 season. Someone want to fill me in?

Meanwhile, Benintendi has an OPS+ of 113 after 444 games, 1951 PA. I don't think they are very good comps at all. Greenwell is kind of an island of his own.

Benny's also been just as good vs L as righties this year and had pretty much no split in the minors so hopefully that's a trend going forward.
vs RHP: 373 PA, .287/.358/.473, 8 HR, 33bb/86k, 8.8% BB%, 23.1% K%
vs LHP: 141 PA, .283/.371/.458, 4 HR, 17bb/33k, 12.1% BB%, 23.4% K%.

Last 26 games: 115 PA, .368/.417/.641, .447 BAbip, 8bb/25k, 5 HR. Raised his overall line from .261/.345/.414 to .286/.361/.469.

If I had to pick a Sox player to compare him to up to age 24, I'd probably pick Ellis Burks. After age 24, Burks had a 130+ OPS in 1344 games, 5345 PA and 38.0 WAR. I'd gladly take a Burks like career, I'd be pretty disappointed with Greenwell.

Side note: Burks finished 3rd in MVP voting in 1996 and Greenwell finished 2nd in 1988. While Benny may never win an MVP award, I wouldn't be shocked if he had a top 5 finish.
 

Al Zarilla

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Greenwell also wasn't just a better hitter, he was a far, far better hitter up to this point and then fell off something smaller than a cliff.

After his first 2 full seasons, he had an OPS+ of 155 in 331 games, 1223 PA. After that, he had an OPS+ of 111, 14.0 WAR for the rest of his career (938 games, 3943 PA) until he was out of the league at 32. I was really young at the time so I don't remember what caused the drop off after 1988. Looking at the stats, it looks like he temporary lost the ability to hit lefties. It wasn't health related, at least not until his age 28 season. Someone want to fill me in?

Meanwhile, Benintendi has an OPS+ of 113 after 444 games, 1951 PA. I don't think they are very good comps at all. Greenwell is kind of an island of his own.

Benny's also been just as good vs L as righties this year and had pretty much no split in the minors so hopefully that's a trend going forward.
vs RHP: 373 PA, .287/.358/.473, 8 HR, 33bb/86k, 8.8% BB%, 23.1% K%
vs LHP: 141 PA, .283/.371/.458, 4 HR, 17bb/33k, 12.1% BB%, 23.4% K%.

Last 26 games: 115 PA, .368/.417/.641, .447 BAbip, 8bb/25k, 5 HR. Raised his overall line from .261/.345/.414 to .286/.361/.469.

If I had to pick a Sox player to compare him to up to age 24, I'd probably pick Ellis Burks. After age 24, Burks had a 130+ OPS in 1344 games, 5345 PA and 38.0 WAR. I'd gladly take a Burks like career, I'd be pretty disappointed with Greenwell.

Side note: Burks finished 3rd in MVP voting in 1996 and Greenwell finished 2nd in 1988. While Benny may never win an MVP award, I wouldn't be shocked if he had a top 5 finish.
I thought about Burks, and, maybe silly, but it doesn't feel right to me to compare LHHs and RHHs. Like a Ted Williams comp might be Stan Musial, but not Joe DiMaggio. Burks did have a very fine career with his subsequent to Boston teams. Did the Red Sox try to re-sign him?
 

The Needler

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Through age 24 -

Burks - 11.4 oWAR, 1.1 dWAR
Greenwell - 10.6 oWAR, 0.0 dWAR
Beni (pace) - 9.9 oWAR, -.6 dWAR

Through 26 -

Burks: 17.8 oWAR, 1.8 dWAR
Greenwell: 17.3 oWAR, -1.4 dWAR

I expect Benintendi to be a more similar base stealer (which is to say not much of one) to Greenwell than Burks, who was not a base stealer at all until his not-suspicious-at-all career year in 1996.
 

bosox79

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Through age 24 -

Burks - 11.4 oWAR, 1.1 dWAR
Greenwell - 10.6 oWAR, 0.0 dWAR
Beni (pace) - 9.9 oWAR, -.6 dWAR

Through 26 -

Burks: 17.8 oWAR, 1.8 dWAR
Greenwell: 17.3 oWAR, -1.4 dWAR

I expect Benintendi to be a more similar base stealer (which is to say not much of one) to Greenwell than Burks, who was not a base stealer at all until his not-suspicious-at-all career year in 1996.
Burks had 20+ sb his first 3 seasons in the league for a total of 72 sb, 20 cs. He had 108 for the rest of his career and was caught 64 times. Ignoring 1996, he had 72 sb, 58 cs. He was a far better base stealer earlier in his career. Benny stole 20+ his first 2 years and probably won't get there this year but has 51 sb and 10 cs atm. Greenwell had 22sb, 12 cs. Greenwell stole 58 bases the rest of his career and was caught 31 times. I'd guess Benny ends up somewhere in the middle of 58 and 108 but with a much, much better success rate.
 

The Needler

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Burks had 20+ sb his first 3 seasons in the league for a total of 72 sb, 20 cs. He had 108 for the rest of his career and was caught 64 times. Ignoring 1996, he had 72 sb, 58 cs. He was a far better base stealer earlier in his career. Benny stole 20+ his first 2 years and probably won't get there this year but has 51 sb and 10 cs atm. Greenwell had 22sb, 12 cs. Greenwell stole 58 bases the rest of his career and was caught 31 times. I'd guess Benny ends up somewhere in the middle of 58 and 108 but with a much, much better success rate.
Why would you guess he has a much, much better success rate? What is it about him in particular that you think indicates his success percentage won’t drop as Burks’s And Greenwell’s did?

I would think being much, much better than Greenwell’s 65% rate post-24 is a tall order. Somebody like McCutchen, a significantly faster player has succeeded at only 61% post-27.
 

bosox79

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Why would you guess he has a much, much better success rate? What is it about him in particular that you think indicates his success percentage won’t drop as Burks’s And Greenwell’s did?

I would think being much, much better than Greenwell’s 65% rate post-24 is a tall order. Somebody like McCutchen, a significantly faster player has succeeded at only 61% post-27.
Because he already has a better success rate pre 25 and because teams and runners are far more selective when they run now than they were in the late 80s and early 90's.
Burks 78.2%
Greenwell 64.7%
Benny 83.9%
McCutchen 75.7%

Plus stealing bases isn't all about speed. A lot of it is instinct and a skill all its own. Derek Jeter's percentages got better post 24. So did Rickey Henderson's. Players who rely purely on speed are probably going to get considerably worse with their success rates. Players like Carlos Beltran who actually know how to steal bases will have similar percentages, just less volume.

edit: I meant a much better success rate relative to Greenwell and Burks, not himself.
 
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drleather2001

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I thought about Burks, and, maybe silly, but it doesn't feel right to me to compare LHHs and RHHs. Like a Ted Williams comp might be Stan Musial, but not Joe DiMaggio. Burks did have a very fine career with his subsequent to Boston teams. Did the Red Sox try to re-sign him?
They did re-sign him...

...in 2004! He got a WS ring.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Greenwell also wasn't just a better hitter, he was a far, far better hitter up to this point and then fell off something smaller than a cliff.

After his first 2 full seasons, he had an OPS+ of 155 in 331 games, 1223 PA. After that, he had an OPS+ of 111, 14.0 WAR for the rest of his career (938 games, 3943 PA) until he was out of the league at 32. I was really young at the time so I don't remember what caused the drop off after 1988. Looking at the stats, it looks like he temporary lost the ability to hit lefties. It wasn't health related, at least not until his age 28 season. Someone want to fill me in?
His ISO plummeted after that '88 season: .221 until then, .131 in the three years after. And while the drop was more pronounced vs. lefties, his power suffered vs. righties too (actually in 1991, his ISO was worse vs. RHP than LHP). I don't remember if there was a known reason for the power dip. The renovation work that produced the new press box and higher facade behind home plate occurred at right around this time, and I remember some hitters complaining that the changes were depressing power. Sounds farfetched but I wonder if this was a factor.

One thing I'd forgotten about Greenwell is what an extreme contact hitter he was: career K rate of 7.0%. His AB/SO of 12.7 is the second highest of any hitter with a career ISO of .150 or better since 1961, trailing only Don Mattingly's 15.8 (sorry for using AB/SO instead of plain old K rate; blame BBref).
 

chawson

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Benintendi has a .351 wOBA over his age 24-25 seasons. His closest LHH outfielder comps since 2000 include:

Denard Span, .361
Jesse Winker, .357
Christian Yelich, .357
Carl Crawford, .355
Austin Meadows, .355
Jody Gerut, .355
Ben Grieve, .353
Lucas Duda, .353
Chris Coghlan, .353
Jay Bruce, .351
Andrew Benintendi, .351
Andre Ethier, .350
Mark Teahen, .349
Mark Kotsay, .348
Brad Wilkerson, .348
David DeJesus, .346
Joc Pederson, .344

It was a much different game, but Mike Greenwell put up a .387 wOBA in his age 24-25 seasons. Trot Nixon’s was .354.

Among guys with below average power during those seasons (which is a park factor as much as it is Beni’s game), Troy O’Leary is actually a pretty good comp. Here are their two cumulative age 24-25 seasons side by side.

.303/.351/.480, 507 PA, 12 HR, .176 ISO, 6.7 BB%, 15 K% (TOL)
.286/.361/.469, 511 PA, 12 HR, .183 ISO, 9.7 BB%, 23.2 K% (AB)
 

Pandarama

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I thought about Burks, and, maybe silly, but it doesn't feel right to me to compare LHHs and RHHs. Like a Ted Williams comp might be Stan Musial, but not Joe DiMaggio. Burks did have a very fine career with his subsequent to Boston teams. Did the Red Sox try to re-sign him?
Maybe you ought to read the Howard Bryant book. It was a difficult town/clubhouse for black players in those days.

One older black player told Burks to get his six years in and get out of town. Another wore a “Boston Sucks” T-shirt under his uniform. When Burks was seen in the company of a white woman, the manager called him into his office and advised him to quit being seen with her.

It was tough for me watching him have success everywhere else after Boston, but the book made it clear to me why he wanted to go.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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Are we truly debating the PISS (Plympton says I Said So) metric? The "Stats be damned, my eyes said that he was bad" level of discourse that we tend to laugh at here?
 

joe dokes

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His ISO plummeted after that '88 season: .221 until then, .131 in the three years after. And while the drop was more pronounced vs. lefties, his power suffered vs. righties too (actually in 1991, his ISO was worse vs. RHP than LHP). I don't remember if there was a known reason for the power dip. The renovation work that produced the new press box and higher facade behind home plate occurred at right around this time, and I remember some hitters complaining that the changes were depressing power. Sounds farfetched but I wonder if this was a factor.

One thing I'd forgotten about Greenwell is what an extreme contact hitter he was: career K rate of 7.0%. His AB/SO of 12.7 is the second highest of any hitter with a career ISO of .150 or better since 1961, trailing only Don Mattingly's 15.8 (sorry for using AB/SO instead of plain old K rate; blame BBref).
IIRC, he eventually had elbow surgery, fwiw (after the 90? season?)
 

Plympton91

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Are we truly debating the PISS (Plympton says I Said So) metric? The "Stats be damned, my eyes said that he was bad" level of discourse that we tend to laugh at here?
Anyone reading my posts honestly knows I’m far from a “stats be damned” person. I’m more of a “badly motivated, often-misleading context-dependent counting stats be damned” person. And, no defensive metric from the pre-statscast era can possibly be worth the brain cells required to construct that dreck. As I’ve said multiple times, any of the WAR-based defensive measures are accurate to the same extent you can determine who was the best hitter among Wade Boggs, Jim Rice, and Bill Buckner by looking at RBI.
 
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drleather2001

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That’s right. I did mean that it looks like when he moved on from his first team, the Red Sox, it was as a free agent, and did the Sox try to re-up him them?
My recollection is a little hazy, but I don’t think they tried very hard. He was regarded (IIRC) as a bit of a disappointment who wouldn’t live up to his potential.
 

nighthob

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Are we truly debating the PISS (Plympton says I Said So) metric? The "Stats be damned, my eyes said that he was bad" level of discourse that we tend to laugh at here?
Greenwell was pretty awful. Like all Red Sox fans over the age of 50 I used to pray for balls hit to left to drop in front of Greeny as that was about the best possible result. Defensive metrics from that era are gawdawful and not much of a guide. Without the statcast data any attempts to recreate reliable defensive metrics are nearly as reliable as reading chicken entrails.
 

mikeysox

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Jul 15, 2005
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His ISO plummeted after that '88 season: .221 until then, .131 in the three years after. And while the drop was more pronounced vs. lefties, his power suffered vs. righties too (actually in 1991, his ISO was worse vs. RHP than LHP). I don't remember if there was a known reason for the power dip. The renovation work that produced the new press box and higher facade behind home plate occurred at right around this time, and I remember some hitters complaining that the changes were depressing power. Sounds farfetched but I wonder if this was a factor.
My recollection is that Greenwell hurt his back and that really cost him his power. Wasn't the same true for Mattingly, although later in his career?
 

BCsMightyJoeYoung

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His ISO plummeted after that '88 season: .221 until then, .131 in the three years after. And while the drop was more pronounced vs. lefties, his power suffered vs. righties too (actually in 1991, his ISO was worse vs. RHP than LHP). I don't remember if there was a known reason for the power dip. The renovation work that produced the new press box and higher facade behind home plate occurred at right around this time, and I remember some hitters complaining that the changes were depressing power. Sounds farfetched but I wonder if this was a factor.

One thing I'd forgotten about Greenwell is what an extreme contact hitter he was: career K rate of 7.0%. His AB/SO of 12.7 is the second highest of any hitter with a career ISO of .150 or better since 1961, trailing only Don Mattingly's 15.8 (sorry for using AB/SO instead of plain old K rate; blame BBref).
That impatience is what I remember most about him .. never met a first pitch he didn’t like .. by 91 he was a complete hacker .. which is in contrast to his first few years in the majors. Maybe Buckner kept whispering in his ear.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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Anyone reading my posts honestly knows I’m far from a “stats be damned” person. I’m more of a “badly motivated, often-misleading context-dependent counting stats be damned” person. And, no defensive metric from the pre-statscast era can possibly be worth the brain cells required to construct that dreck. As I’ve said multiple times, any of the WAR-based defensive measures are accurate to the same extent you can determine who was the best hitter among Wade Boggs, Jim Rice, and Bill Buckner by looking at RBI.
Fortunately for you, no stats really showed him being consistently above average average defensively-- there are weird outliers, but would imagine that you would see them for what they are, and discard them .
From his bref page"

--EDIT:: will fix formatting in a bit. it looked good on preview.
[TH]1991[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]987[/TH] [TH]1987[/TH] [TH]1987[/TH] [TH]1987[/TH] [TH]1987[/TH] [TH]1988[/TH] [TH]1988[/TH] [TH]1988[/TH] [TH]1988[/TH] [TH]1989[/TH] [TH]1989[/TH] [TH]1989[/TH] [TH]1990[/TH] [TH]1990[/TH] [TH]1991[/TH]
23 BOS OF AL 91 88 67 743.2 175 162 8 5 0 .971 -2 -3 2.06 1.87 .980 2.31 2.29 RoY-4
23 BOS LF AL 64 61 53 538.1 130 119 7 4 0 .969 0 0 2.11 1.97 .974 2.11 2.08 RoY-4
23 BOS RF AL 28 27 14 205.1 44 42 1 1 0 .977 -2 -12 1.88 1.54 .979 2.12 2.10 RoY-4
23 BOS DH AL 15 15 RoY-4
23 BOS C AL 1 0 0 1.0 4 3 0 1 0 .750 -1 -1200 27.00 3.00 .988 6.30 6.70 0 1 2 0 0% 31% 0 RoY-4
24 BOS OF AL 147 147 137 1276.0 314 302 6 6 2 .981 13 12 2.17 2.10 .979 2.47 2.45 AS,MVP-2,SS
24 BOS LF AL 143 140 133 1215.0 302 292 6 4 2 .987 14 14 2.21 2.08 .977 2.26 2.24 AS,MVP-2,SS
24 BOS DH AL 11 11 AS,MVP-2,SS
24 BOS RF AL 8 7 4 61.0 15 13 0 2 0 .867 -1 -14 1.92 1.63 .974 2.24 2.23 AS,MVP-2,SS
25 BOS LF AL 139 139 132 1227.0 240 221 11 8 1 .967 1 1 1.70 1.67 .977 2.16 2.14 AS
25 BOS OF AL 139 139 132 1227.0 239 220 11 8 1 .967 1 1 1.69 1.66 .980 2.42 2.40 AS
25 BOS DH AL 5 5 AS
26 BOS LF AL 159 157 143 1381.0 307 288 12 7 1 .977 -4 -3 1.96 1.89 .978 2.19 2.16
26 BOS OF AL 159 157 143 1381.0 307 287 13 7 1 .977 -4 -3 1.96 1.89 .981 2.39 2.36
27 BOS LF AL 143 141 129 1219.2 275 263 9 3 3 .989 -1 -1 2.01 1.90 .978 2.17 2.16




So one year as 'good', everything else as average/below average. I think you are smart enough to see '88 as a fluke, and agree that the defensive stats had him as below average. (Of course 88 was his "MVP" year, so he was probably on something). So you have your shorts in a bunch about some imaginary stat calling Greenwell a good defensive outfielder...said stat doesn't seem to exist on a cursory google search.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Fortunately for you, no stats really showed him being consistently above average average defensively-- there are weird outliers, but would imagine that you would see them for what they are, and discard them .
From his bref page"

So one year as 'good', everything else as average/below average. I think you are smart enough to see '88 as a fluke, and agree that the defensive stats had him as below average. (Of course 88 was his "MVP" year, so he was probably on something). So you have your shorts in a bunch about some imaginary stat calling Greenwell a good defensive outfielder...said stat doesn't seem to exist on a cursory google search.
I'm not sure what stat BBref is using for pre-2000 players, but Fangraphs, which uses Total Zone, shows him consistently average or better for his first five years, and then mostly slightly below average after that, with a couple of good bounceback seasons in '93 and '95. His worst year, by this measure, was -5 runs in about a half-season's worth of work in the abbreviated 1994 season.

For his career, he averaged about +3.2 Total Zone runs per 150 games. Among 20 left fielders with at least 5000 innings played over his career (1985-96), he ranks 6th in TZ/150, behind Bonds, Luis Gonzalez, Bernard Gilkey, Rickey Henderson, and Lonnie Smith, and ahead of Greg Vaughn, Dan Gladden, Tim Raines, Pete Incaviglia, and Vince Coleman. (Not to mention other guys like the Bell(e)s, George and Albert, Joe Carter and Mel Hall, who sit further down the list).

So by this metric, he was an above-average left fielder over his career. I realize this collides violently with many people's memories of him (less so with mine, though I was surprised to see him as high as he was). TZ is not the world's most reliable thing, but it's a data point.
 

mikeford

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Of course this is SoSH so this spiraled into a discussion about mike Greenwell instead but

Ben Nintendo has had a pretty shit year for a guy we thought would be a stud outfielder. Saw this from Pete Abe today: "Benintendi is 1 of his last 26. Has 1 HR in his last 30 games. "

The 1 for 26 is whatever but that 1 HR in his last 30 games thing is not an anomaly, he went big stretches last year too without hitting a HR.

Is this just who he is going to be? A 2-3 WAR guy who maybe hits 20 homers in a great year but probably closer to 15?
 

sean1562

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i am not expecting him to be anything more than a 2-3 WAR player over the length of his contract here. That ends up being like 15 WAR as a career with the sox? not every prospect can turn into X, Devers, and Mookie. Some guys just never hit their ceilings.
 

EricFeczko

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Of course this is SoSH so this spiraled into a discussion about mike Greenwell instead but

Ben Nintendo has had a pretty shit year for a guy we thought would be a stud outfielder. Saw this from Pete Abe today: "Benintendi is 1 of his last 26. Has 1 HR in his last 30 games. "

The 1 for 26 is whatever but that 1 HR in his last 30 games thing is not an anomaly, he went big stretches last year too without hitting a HR.

Is this just who he is going to be? A 2-3 WAR guy who maybe hits 20 homers in a great year but probably closer to 15?
Probably, unless he starts to hit more bombs -- the relationship between his HR/FB and wRC+ is a little eerie compared to some. It's not a perfect relationship, the rest appears to be BABIP related. By eye, the HR/FB looks like it is most associated with Beni's wRC+, which is probably just coincidence...right?

25962

EDIT: Hehe, this is the first non TTO, base-stealing and contact player I've seen in a long time, whose wRC+ looks heavily correlated with HR/FB -- if you don't believe me, go to fangraphs and take a look at the data at every smoothing level -- it's weird.
 
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shaggydog2000

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i am not expecting him to be anything more than a 2-3 WAR player over the length of his contract here. That ends up being like 15 WAR as a career with the sox? not every prospect can turn into X, Devers, and Mookie. Some guys just never hit their ceilings.
2-3 WAR is a solid starter. Having a guy like that through the cost controlled part of his career is exactly what you want to fill out the non-star part of your team. They're not all going to be stars. Use up his cheap years and let somebody else pay for his expensive free agent years, because that's probably the type of guy who is going to decline the most once his new deal starts.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Pete was also throwing out exploring a Beni for Syndergaard deal this offseason, then put Chavis at LF (??) and Dalbec at 1B. I think that was him speculating with no sources, but sometimes these logical deals do actually happen.
 

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

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i am not expecting him to be anything more than a 2-3 WAR player over the length of his contract here. That ends up being like 15 WAR as a career with the sox? not every prospect can turn into X, Devers, and Mookie. Some guys just never hit their ceilings.
Or maybe people overestimated his ceiling.
 

Bernie Carbohydrate

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His ISO plummeted after that '88 season: .221 until then, .131 in the three years after. And while the drop was more pronounced vs. lefties, his power suffered vs. righties too (actually in 1991, his ISO was worse vs. RHP than LHP). I don't remember if there was a known reason for the power dip. The renovation work that produced the new press box and higher facade behind home plate occurred at right around this time, and I remember some hitters complaining that the changes were depressing power. Sounds farfetched but I wonder if this was a factor.

One thing I'd forgotten about Greenwell is what an extreme contact hitter he was: career K rate of 7.0%. His AB/SO of 12.7 is the second highest of any hitter with a career ISO of .150 or better since 1961, trailing only Don Mattingly's 15.8 (sorry for using AB/SO instead of plain old K rate; blame BBref).
Yeah, I recall Greenwell being a "Fenway Hitter" and complaining about the "600 Club" boxes that were added in 1989:

But the glassed-in structure, which opened in 1989, affected more than just the profile of the park, according to some Red Sox hitters.

A year after the club, originally called the 600 Club, was built, players swore they detected a negative effect on their ability to hit home runs. The large glass facade apparently altered wind conditions in the park, they said.

''Without a doubt, it's had an effect, third baseman Wade Boggs told a Globe columnist in 1990. ''Before it was built, you could hit 'em in the back of the center field bleachers. Now you rarely see a ball blow out that far."

Said former left fielder Mike Greenwell: ''It's almost like when the wind's blowing out, it comes over the building and pushes the ball down."
He had a home advantage (career .869 OPS at Fenway, .794 on the road) but in my memory it was more extreme. Also I recall the Gator's brutal, brutal fielding, which was an afterthought when Greenwell was an MVP candidate, but became an issue when Greenwell turned out to be just a pretty good contact hitter with warning-track power and a tendency to disappear in the post-season.
 

sean1562

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eh he was the #1 prospect in baseball, i dont think it is crazy to say that we all thought his ceiling was pretty high. cant all pan out, still a solid player
 

BaseballJones

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His three year numbers (2017-2018):

428 g, 254 r, 106 2b, 49 hr, 245 rbi, .278/.356/.444/.800, 109 ops+

Run those numbers over an average of 150 games:

150 g, 89 r, 37 2b, 17 hr, 86 rbi, .278/.356/.444/.800, 109 ops+

That's a solid, solid MLB starter. It's not superstar material, but it's a solid starter.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
He's a mess. Looking at his batted ball and plate discipline numbers, it looks like a classic case of a guy who goes into swing-for-the-fences mode because he thinks he's supposed to be a power hitter, but instead of his power improving, everything else suffers. Swing percentages up, contact rate down. K rate way up (almost a 50% increase from last year), ISO down. FB% up, but HR/FB down (and that in a year when the MLB-wide HR/FB spiked) and IFFB rate up.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He's a mess. Looking at his batted ball and plate discipline numbers, it looks like a classic case of a guy who goes into swing-for-the-fences mode because he thinks he's supposed to be a power hitter, but instead of his power improving, everything else suffers. Swing percentages up, contact rate down. K rate way up (almost a 50% increase from last year), ISO down. FB% up, but HR/FB down (and that in a year when the MLB-wide HR/FB spiked) and IFFB rate up.
Fortunately, he's 25 years old so he has room to grow and fix that.
 

JMDurron

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I’m more concerned long-term about what his defensive drop off might represent. He looks sluggish out in LF to my eye, like his lower body has been off somehow for most of the season. If this is just a lost defensive season for him due to whatever reason, that’s not necessarily a big deal. A 25 year old corner OF possibly regressing both offensively and defensively is a concern.
 

the count

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Sep 20, 2019
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Greenwell also wasn't just a better hitter, he was a far, far better hitter up to this point and then fell off something smaller than a cliff.

After his first 2 full seasons, he had an OPS+ of 155 in 331 games, 1223 PA. After that, he had an OPS+ of 111, 14.0 WAR for the rest of his career (938 games, 3943 PA) until he was out of the league at 32. I was really young at the time so I don't remember what caused the drop off after 1988. Looking at the stats, it looks like he temporary lost the ability to hit lefties. It wasn't health related, at least not until his age 28 season. Someone want to fill me in?

Meanwhile, Benintendi has an OPS+ of 113 after 444 games, 1951 PA. I don't think they are very good comps at all. Greenwell is kind of an island of his own.

Benny's also been just as good vs L as righties this year and had pretty much no split in the minors so hopefully that's a trend going forward.
vs RHP: 373 PA, .287/.358/.473, 8 HR, 33bb/86k, 8.8% BB%, 23.1% K%
vs LHP: 141 PA, .283/.371/.458, 4 HR, 17bb/33k, 12.1% BB%, 23.4% K%.

Last 26 games: 115 PA, .368/.417/.641, .447 BAbip, 8bb/25k, 5 HR. Raised his overall line from .261/.345/.414 to .286/.361/.469.

If I had to pick a Sox player to compare him to up to age 24, I'd probably pick Ellis Burks. After age 24, Burks had a 130+ OPS in 1344 games, 5345 PA and 38.0 WAR. I'd gladly take a Burks like career, I'd be pretty disappointed with Greenwell.

Side note: Burks finished 3rd in MVP voting in 1996 and Greenwell finished 2nd in 1988. While Benny may never win an MVP award, I wouldn't be shocked if he had a top 5 finish.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I don't know if it was ever seriously considered between the two clubs... but someone on here mentioned a straight up 10D for Yellich deal that at the time looked like it would have been a slight win for Miami... slight. At that point, I didn't like the idea. Yellich looked like he was going to be what his 3 year numbers said he was - a good, borderline very good, consistent all around player, Benintendi looked like he was going to be about the same (to put it in numbers, I'd say a consistent .850 OPS with 25 HR's). If that deal went through at this point, the Sox would be looking brilliant and the Marlins would be looking.... well... just fine, but not the winners of the deal.
Here's the thing though... Yellich just got hurt. Not horribly, but he did. He has two years remaining on his current deal. 10D has three more years. Would it surprise me if Yellich played closer to Benintendi's currrent 3 year trend the next two years while Benintendi turned in to Christian Yellich's past two seasons? Well... somewhat... but I don't think anyone predicted Yellich to turn into Yellich's past two seasons based off what he was prior to the trade.... The potential was there, but it still is right there with 10D.
 

nvalvo

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I am of two minds with Benintendi:

I worry that when he was put into left field, he changed his body to hit for more power and ended up ruining his defense without actually hitting for more power. That's ominous. He's posted two straight years of negative dWAR, and although that includes a positional adjustment that does not favor him, I also don't think he would do well in CF at this point. He's striking out a bit more and walking a bit less, while producing less ISO and worse results, despite a higher BABIP. Yikes.

But then again, good young players have setback seasons all the time, and many go on to return to their prior trajectory. Had Benintendi been a 24 year old rookie in 2019, and posted a .781 OPS, we'd probably be ecstatic!

Here's every outfielder in the expansion era to have a season with 4 or more oWAR (Beni's 2018 total) before age 24. Just clicking through there, many of them had a season like Benintendi's 2019 in their mid 20s, where they declined from what probably looked like a new career level. Barry Bonds at 24 posted a pedestrian .777 OPS following two seasons where he had averaged .840. Andruw Jones fell off at age 24, before bouncing back. Tim Raines had a down year at 22. Boog Powell disappeared at 23. Dykstra had a grim age-25 season. Plenty more had down years that were linked to obvious health issues (e.g. Grady Sizemore, Giancarlo Stanton — same initials!). The guys who didn't have a down season, and just built or maintained their level of play, are guys like Trout and Griffey, Jr. and Manny Ramirez and Rickey Henderson and Andrew McCutchen.

But I haven't seen a lot of guys here who achieved that level of offensive production so young and then just completely fell apart, absent a health issue like Sizemore's. Dion James? Eric Hinske? There are guys like Justin Upton, who have had some great seasons and some mediocre seasons, whose distribution suggests no particular pattern or sequence. But young outfielders who hit like Benintendi before age 24 rarely just disappear.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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This is a skewed sample, though, as it includes some guys who did much better than that, and nobody who did even slightly worse. If we're looking for a matching set of guys using this metric, it might be better to look for everybody who had at least one season between, say, 3.5 and 4.5. That list includes several guys who could serve as rational-pessimist comps for Beni at this point in his career, such as Ben Grieve and Bobby Tolan.
 

nvalvo

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This is a skewed sample, though, as it includes some guys who did much better than that, and nobody who did even slightly worse. If we're looking for a matching set of guys using this metric, it might be better to look for everybody who had at least one season between, say, 3.5 and 4.5. That list includes several guys who could serve as rational-pessimist comps for Beni at this point in his career, such as Ben Grieve and Bobby Tolan.
This is a good point.