Stretch Run 2017: is the glass half full or that other thing?

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,376
And for the "glass half empty" folks, if the Sox go 4-7, NY has to go 7-4 to tie. Two days ago, you could come up with a scenario where the Sox could play pretty well and it would still take only ordinary heroics for the Yanks to catch them; it's now approaching the point where the Sox can play pretty badly and still force the Yankees to stay hot to have a chance.
Yep, as I said a couple of posts above, I think 7-4 should be the goal, given that 7 games left are home. They do that, NY has to go 10-1 to tie. That's possible, but man it would require them to play lights out for nearly two weeks. And 7-4 should be doable, even with Houston on the schedule those last four games.
 

Unin10D

New Member
Feb 7, 2017
257
The last couple games have made me a believer, to where I will be extremely disappointed in the Sox don't close out the East. But, 11 games left, anything can happen.

I'm not as optimistic about the playoffs, facing either the Astros or the Indians in a best of 5. But last year I thought Cleveland would be pretty straight forward and that blew up in my face.

This must be how Yankees fans felt all those years (1996-2006) watching us claw in the rear view mirror. Feels good man. But win tonight
 

jcaz

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 8, 2009
383
It's too bad DDom can't put together a bullpen. In September, the Red Sox bullpen has thrown 75 innings with a 2.28 ERA, fourth-best in the majors.

More impressively, over the last 13 games (Red Sox are 10-3),the bullpen has thrown 63 innings with 16 walks, 80 strikeouts, a 1.29 ERA and a .168 average against.

Wow.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2017/09/red_sox_bullpen_backs_drew_pomeranz_in_extra_innings_shutout_of_orioles
I went back to August 1 looking at bullpen performance. Here are the stats in that time:
Games: 43
IP: 155.2
IP/GM: 3.34
ERA: 3.24
WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 10.87
K/BB: 3.84

That set of games included some incredible work by the bullpen:
9.1 IP, 7H 2R 2ER 4BB 15K September 15, BOS 13 TBR 6 (15)
13 IP, 6H 0R 0ER 3BB 15k September 5, BOS 6 TOR 5 (19)

These results make me a glass half full guy, though the number of scoreless and 1-2-3 innings this offense has continues to worry me.
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
23,482
Garden City
Everything feels really good when you’re playing the Orioles and Twins. Things are too good to be true. All of the terrible hitters are suddenly destroying pitching, all of the slumping pitchers are lights out. That’s a comment toward both Yankees and Sox fans alike. We’d be mistaken to assume our teams will perform anywhere on this level vs the top teams. Great to build momentum but this is a year of pick your poison playoffs.
 

Unin10D

New Member
Feb 7, 2017
257
Everything feels really good when you’re playing the Orioles and Twins. Things are too good to be true. All of the terrible hitters are suddenly destroying pitching, all of the slumping pitchers are lights out. That’s a comment toward both Yankees and Sox fans alike. We’d be mistaken to assume our teams will perform anywhere on this level vs the top teams. Great to build momentum but this is a year of pick your poison playoffs.
I agree. I think there are three really good teams (Indians, Astros, D-Backs) five pretty good teams (Sox, Rockies, Dodgers, Nats, Yankees) and then teams that are just stoked to be there (NL Central, Twins). I would be a little surprised but not in any way shocked if a team other than the Indians, Astros, or D-Backs was holding the trophy at the end of the year.

In a dream scenario, the Sox knock off the Astros and the Yankees get lucky against the Indians. I think the Sox match up best against the Yankees, and match up well against whoever comes out of the NL. Running the gauntlet of beating the Astros and Indians will be tough.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,484
Rogers Park
I agree. I think there are three really good teams (Indians, Astros, D-Backs) five pretty good teams (Sox, Rockies, Dodgers, Nats, Yankees) and then teams that are just stoked to be there (NL Central, Twins). I would be a little surprised but not in any way shocked if a team other than the Indians, Astros, or D-Backs was holding the trophy at the end of the year.

In a dream scenario, the Sox knock off the Astros and the Yankees get lucky against the Indians. I think the Sox match up best against the Yankees, and match up well against whoever comes out of the NL. Running the gauntlet of beating the Astros and Indians will be tough.
I don't understand why the Astros and Diamondbacks are really good teams, and the Dodgers aren't.

I guess key trade acquisitions have shored up the rotation in Houston and the lineup in Arizona, but surely the Dodgers — with four 4+-WAR position players, a great rotation led by a consensus ace, and the best reliever in the NL — aren't a bad team now just because they scuffled for two weeks in September. They're still going to win 100 games in a division that produced both WC teams.

FWIW:

Cleveland +231
HUGE GAP
NY +186
LA +166
Houston +154
Washington +150
Arizona +143
Boston +123
Chicago +100

Cleveland has no obvious weaknesses, and should be favored in a playoff series against any of these teams.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,376
I agree. I think there are three really good teams (Indians, Astros, D-Backs) five pretty good teams (Sox, Rockies, Dodgers, Nats, Yankees) and then teams that are just stoked to be there (NL Central, Twins). I would be a little surprised but not in any way shocked if a team other than the Indians, Astros, or D-Backs was holding the trophy at the end of the year.

In a dream scenario, the Sox knock off the Astros and the Yankees get lucky against the Indians. I think the Sox match up best against the Yankees, and match up well against whoever comes out of the NL. Running the gauntlet of beating the Astros and Indians will be tough.
The Cubs are the defending World Series champs, with a TON of talent. You think they're not at least in the "pretty good teams" category? You think they'd just be stoked to be in the playoffs? Virtually the same record as NY, just 3 behind Arizona, who you put in the "really good teams" category. Huge playoff experience. Playoff Lester and Lackey.

It wouldn't shock me at all if the Cubs repeated.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,484
Rogers Park
On that note, I've been poking around NY's underperformance of their pythag. Boston has slightly over-performed their good run differential; NY has massively underperformed their excellent one.

The Red Sox have been shut out 10 times; NY only 3. But NY has been held to 1 run 17 times, Boston only 12. So Boston has scored one or fewer 22 times to NY's 20, while scoring 72 fewer runs. (Also Boston won one of those games.) On the other side, Boston has scored 10+ 14 times, and NY 20 times. Boston is 20-17 in one-run games; NY is 17-25.

A huge chunk of NY's run differential has been hung on Baltimore, whom the Yanks outscored 154-88. I'm not sure hanging 150 runs on a team with an unreliable pitching is really all that predictive of anything, especially when they only won 12 of 19 against them; i.e. that 66 run difference only amounted to a three win swing over .500.
 

bobesox

New Member
Jul 19, 2005
151
Any possibility that Cleveland's run differential is aided by 2 divisional opponents roughly 30 games under .500?
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
8,681
I agree. I think there are three really good teams (Indians, Astros, D-Backs) five pretty good teams (Sox, Rockies, Dodgers, Nats, Yankees) and then teams that are just stoked to be there (NL Central, Twins). I would be a little surprised but not in any way shocked if a team other than the Indians, Astros, or D-Backs was holding the trophy at the end of the year.

In a dream scenario, the Sox knock off the Astros and the Yankees get lucky against the Indians. I think the Sox match up best against the Yankees, and match up well against whoever comes out of the NL. Running the gauntlet of beating the Astros and Indians will be tough.
Between July 31st and August 24th, the Red Sox and Indians played 7 times. Boston won four of those games and might have won a fifth game were it not for Brock Holt's ninth-inning throwing error. I respect Tito and his team immensely and would see them as a favorite in any series with the Sox but they are not an unbeatable juggernaut.
 

luckysox

Indiana Jones
SoSH Member
Apr 21, 2009
8,076
S.E. Pennsylvania
It's like we're all new to playoff baseball. Anything can happen. Crazy things DO happen. If your team gets there, take a deep breath and hold on tight because the ride is the whole reason we pay attention starting during snow squalls and hail storms and 38 degree nights with cold winds coming in off the the ocean or lake or mountains. It's the reason we watch in late June when it's hot and and the fun of summer is at our fingertips and we could find other things to occupy our time some nights, but we always sneak a peak at the score. It's why we watch when school starts back up and pitchers are as weary as our 7 year olds after their first week of 2nd grade. This is the good stuff.

The newsflash is, all of these teams are really good. All are flawed, too. Sometimes the statistics of an entire year for a team and for it's individual players don't end up meaning jack squat in October, and as a fan you can feel the momentum of a game or series shift with the very movement of the earth itself, rotating on its axis. When a team grabs that momentum, it really does not matter if they outscored their pythag or not that season. They may well run away with the game, the series, the title. Now, of course, I know momentum is not everything. But neither is the label of "fantastic" or "backed into the playoffs" on a team who pulls their stirrups on come Autumn. There is no man on any of these teams who believes their team won't be victorious. Schilling was right in the year of our Sox redemption: Why Not Us? Every team thinks it, wildcard winner or 103 game winner. And in such short clips of competition, every team has a real chance.

Glass. Half. Full.
 

Stanley Steamer

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 11, 2012
1,436
Rossland, BC
So far, so good. Really good.
Though the Sox have qualified for the playoffs, I'm not ready to talk match ups yet. Nor is anyone on the team.
10 games left, still with a 3 game lead, but still with the sense that any slip up would be punished by the MFY.
On to Cincinnati! Battle of the awesome CFs!
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,376
Last 7 games, this is pretty remarkable. Following a day when the Yankees cut the Red Sox lead down to 3.0 games...

9/14 - Sox win 6-2, Yanks win 13-5, lead stays 3.0
9/15 - Sox win 13-6, Yanks win 8-2, lead stays 3.0
9/16 - Sox win 3-1, Yanks win 9-3, lead stays 3.0
9/17 - Sox lose 3-2, Yanks lose 6-4, lead stays 3.0
9/18 - Sox win 10-8, Yanks win 2-1, lead stays 3.0
9/19 - Sox win 1-0, Yanks win 5-2, lead stays 3.0
9/20 - Sox win 9-0, Yanks win 11-3, lead stays 3.0

The Yankees, since they beat the Sox in their last matchup of the season to cut the lead to 3.5 games, have gone 12-4, outscoring their opponents 105-58, and have only picked up a half game in the standings, because the Sox have gone 11-4 over that same time frame.
 

Rough Carrigan

reasons within Reason
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
This'll be a really interesting playoffs season.

In April and May the Houston Astros were nearly as white hot as the 1984 Tigers building up to a 42-16 record at one point. Surely the Astros were on their way to a 105 win season and at least a very good shot at a world series title.

Then starting in June the L.A. Dodgers got incredibly hot, destroying everything put in front of them to the tune of building up a 91-36 record. Their ascension to the world series was just a matter of procedure. Could any AL team possibly beat them?

And then we had the Cleveland Indians real off a 22 game win streak, so Cleveland is the team to beat, right?

I don't know that we've had a recent season where three different teams went on streaks like this that, in most years, would have everyone thinking that they're the team to beat.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,484
Rogers Park
Any possibility that Cleveland's run differential is aided by 2 divisional opponents roughly 30 games under .500?
Oh, absolutely. Their numbers against Detroit in particular are pretty eye-popping. But that's a big lead over a Yankees team that hung a ludicrous number on the Baltimore pitching staff.

What impresses me most about Cleveland looking through the differentials is that they took 5 of 6 from Houston on a 29-22 RS-RA. That's efficient.
 

uk_sox_fan

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 11, 2006
1,273
London, England
:)
Sometimes the statistics of an entire year for a team and for it's individual players don't end up meaning jack squat in October, and as a fan you can feel the momentum of a game or series shift with the very movement of the earth itself, rotating on its axis. When a team grabs that momentum, it really does not matter if they outscored their pythag or not that season. They may well run away with the game, the series, the title. Now, of course, I know momentum is not everything. But neither is the label of "fantastic" or "backed into the playoffs" on a team who pulls their stirrups on come Autumn. There is no man on any of these teams who believes their team won't be victorious. Schilling was right in the year of our Sox redemption: Why Not Us? Every team thinks it, wildcard winner or 103 game winner. And in such short clips of competition, every team has a real chance.

Glass. Half. Full.
Anyone have historicals on Vegas odds for winning the WS at the end of the regular season for the last few years (preferably dating back to the beginning of the wild card era)? I'd be interested to see how much playoffs results can be predicted above the proverbial coin flip.

This'll be a really interesting playoffs season.

In April and May the Houston Astros were nearly as white hot as the 1984 Tigers building up to a 42-16 record at one point. Surely the Astros were on their way to a 105 win season and at least a very good shot at a world series title.

Then starting in June the L.A. Dodgers got incredibly hot, destroying everything put in front of them to the tune of building up a 91-36 record. Their ascension to the world series was just a matter of procedure. Could any AL team possibly beat them?

And then we had the Cleveland Indians real off a 22 game win streak, so Cleveland is the team to beat, right?

I don't know that we've had a recent season where three different teams went on streaks like this that, in most years, would have everyone thinking that they're the team to beat.
Don't forget the Red Sox' 12-0 October!
 

uk_sox_fan

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 11, 2006
1,273
London, England
So for this year, taking odds from an ESPN article that cites Westgate Superbook as of Sep 18 and comparing it to FanGraphs, it seems that the Astros, Cubs and Sox are being undervalued by Vegas.

(Westgate implied odds sum to ~133% reflecting the VIG) so the 'true' implied odds are less than the mathematical ones I've posted. Obviously, that makes the 'undervalued' teams even more so.

Code:
   Westgate  Implied     FG     diff
CLE    9-4    30.8%    20.4%   +10.4%
LAD    5-2    28.6%    16.2%   +12.4%
HOU    5-1    16.7%    18.5%    -1.8%
WSN    7-1    12.5%     7.2%    +5.3%
CHC    8-1    11.1%    13.1%    -2.0%
BOS   10-1     9.1%    13.3%    -4.2%
NYY   12-1     7.7%     5.4%    +2.3%
ARI   14-1     6.7%     2.9%    +3.8%
COL   25-1     3.8%     0.8%    +3.0%
MIN   50-1     2.0%     0.8%    +1.2%
MIL   80-1     1.2%     0.2%    +1.0%
LAA  100-1     1.0%     0.3%    +0.7%
STL  100-1     1.0%     0.7%    +0.3%
SEA  200-1     0.5%     0.0%    +0.5%
TEX  300-1     0.3%     0.0%    +0.3%
KCR  300-1     0.3%     0.0%    +0.3%
 

uk_sox_fan

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 11, 2006
1,273
London, England
So for this year, taking odds from an ESPN article that cites Westgate Superbook as of Sep 18 and comparing it to FanGraphs, it seems that the Astros, Cubs and Sox are being undervalued by Vegas.

(Westgate implied odds sum to ~133% reflecting the VIG) so the 'true' implied odds are less than the mathematical ones I've posted. Obviously, that makes the 'undervalued' teams even more so.

Code:
   Westgate  Implied     FG     diff
CLE    9-4    30.8%    20.4%   +10.4%
LAD    5-2    28.6%    16.2%   +12.4%
HOU    5-1    16.7%    18.5%    -1.8%
WSN    7-1    12.5%     7.2%    +5.3%
CHC    8-1    11.1%    13.1%    -2.0%
BOS   10-1     9.1%    13.3%    -4.2%
NYY   12-1     7.7%     5.4%    +2.3%
ARI   14-1     6.7%     2.9%    +3.8%
COL   25-1     3.8%     0.8%    +3.0%
MIN   50-1     2.0%     0.8%    +1.2%
MIL   80-1     1.2%     0.2%    +1.0%
LAA  100-1     1.0%     0.3%    +0.7%
STL  100-1     1.0%     0.7%    +0.3%
SEA  200-1     0.5%     0.0%    +0.5%
TEX  300-1     0.3%     0.0%    +0.3%
KCR  300-1     0.3%     0.0%    +0.3%
Actually, I should use the FG odds from the 17th rather than the 21st that I used above for the best comparison. Not that the results look that much different...

Code:
   Westgate  Implied     FG     diff
CLE    9-4    30.8%    18.2%   +12.6%
LAD    5-2    28.6%    16.8%   +11.8%
HOU    5-1    16.7%    19.1%    -2.4%
WSN    7-1    12.5%     8.2%    +4.3%
CHC    8-1    11.1%    13.0%    -1.9%
BOS   10-1     9.1%    13.0%    -3.9%
NYY   12-1     7.7%     5.8%    +1.9%
ARI   14-1     6.7%     2.9%    +3.8%
COL   25-1     3.8%     1.5%    +2.3%
MIN   50-1     2.0%     0.7%    +1.3%
MIL   80-1     1.2%     0.2%    +1.0%
LAA  100-1     1.0%     0.4%    +0.6%
STL  100-1     1.0%     0.2%    +0.8%
SEA  200-1     0.5%     0.1%    +0.4%
TEX  300-1     0.3%     0.0%    +0.3%
KCR  300-1     0.3%     0.1%    +0.2%
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,376
To those people who have said how unlikable this team is....

Are you staring to like them a little better now?
 

Unin10D

New Member
Feb 7, 2017
257
If the Red Sox win the World Series, I won't be surprised.

If they lose in the ALCS, I won't be surprised.

If they lose the division to the Yankees and get beat in the play in game, I'll be a little surprised. A lot of teams feel close-ish and it's hard to say who's hottest right now. Red Sox are playing .800 ball the last 10 games, so they're pretty hot right now right?
 

Wallball Tingle

union soap
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
2,518
I'm still triggered by statistics like this; have been since 2011.

What were they then? 99.
WHEN were they 99, though? And for what? Making the postseason at all at the beginning of September?

Because they are 100% for the play-in now and I doubt their probability of winning the WC in 2011 was similar to their chances at the division now. Just checked: on September 19, 2011, the Sox had 8 to play and the Rays 10. The Sox were up by 2 (division was a pipe dream as the Yanks were up 5, and 5 was also the Sox' tragic # for the division). The Sox magic # for the WC at the time was 8, and it's 6 for the division now.

(EDIT, this paragraph inserted: So closer to the same odds than I would have thought... but the magic number is 25% lower with the same combined number of games to play--18--for the leading and trailing team.)

I'm NOT saying it's over. 2004 and 2011 have taught me to take nothing for granted, but their circumstances are a LOT better at a similar time in the season than they were in 2011.
 
Last edited:

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,348
That victory... another comeback, coupled with the Yanks loss was it. Glass is full and ready to be guzzled.
But yeah.... playoffs? Playoffs? Playoffs?!?!!??! PLAYOFFS?!??!!
Anything can happen-
 

Humphrey

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2010
3,163
I just looked at the Sox in 2011 with 9 games left to go. Their September record up to then was 4-14. Do you think a 4-14 team has a better chance of going 3-6 the rest of the way than a 14-4 team? And 3-6 at this point might win the division anyway, the Yanquis have to go 7-2 just to tie that.

They were starting a severely injured John Lackey, a should-have-retired-in-July Tim Wakefield and "Cooney" (ERA over 7) Weiland...bad as Porcello's been he's still getting the ball before any of those three. Not only that, but your up-to-then solid 8th inning guy imploded that month, ending his career as it turned out.

Bottom Line: apples and oranges between then and now.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
Last night was important. Ideally, we want the last 4 games to be irrelevant, for planning and resting, apart from peace of mind.

Cleveland and Houston may make them less important, but Sox need to do their part here. I would not be counting on the Yanks to lose.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,243
Last night was important. Ideally, we want the last 4 games to be irrelevant, for planning and resting, apart from peace of mind.

Cleveland and Houston may make them less important, but Sox need to do their part here. I would not be counting on the Yanks to lose.
In the context of "sox would rather play Houston than Cleveland" how tough do they go against Houston -- to make sure they finish behind Cleveland -- if they sew up the division before the weekend?
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,376
Sox Remaining Schedule
2 at Cin
3 vs Tor
4 vs Hou

NY Remaining Schedule
2 at Tor
1 vs KC
3 vs TB
3 vs Tor

Four up with nine to play.

Yanks are 6-8 vs Tor this year. 2-1 vs KC. 10-6 against TB. The way they're playing, and given that they're home, figure they go 7-2 or 8-1 the rest of the way. That means that Boston would have to go 3-6 or 4-5 to tie. Given that two of their remaining games are against Cincy, and the last 7 are home, they stand a pretty good shot at getting 4 wins. Sox are 2-1 against Hou, 1-0 against Cin, and 12-4 against Tor. I know you never know, but I'd be shocked if they don't get 4 more wins, which if they do, means that NY would have to just about be perfect to tie.

It's not over yet, but the fat lady is at least in the dressing room clearing her throat.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Last night was important. Ideally, we want the last 4 games to be irrelevant, for planning and resting, apart from peace of mind.

Cleveland and Houston may make them less important, but Sox need to do their part here. I would not be counting on the Yanks to lose.
So you're saying that the Sox should try to win the games they're playing?

In the context of "sox would rather play Houston than Cleveland" how tough do they go against Houston -- to make sure they finish behind Cleveland -- if they sew up the division before the weekend?
If the Sox actually have the division locked up, I'll be shocked if they put a premium on fighting the Houston/Cleveland battle versus setting their rotation and giving their guys appropriate rest.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,484
Rogers Park
I'm NOT saying it's over. 2004 and 2011 have taught me to take nothing for granted, but their circumstances are a LOT better at a similar time in the season than they were in 2011.
The starting rotation that September included contributions from:
  • Prime Vintage Jon Lester, who seems to have been out of gas after a strong season.
  • An ailing Josh Beckett, who was skipped a few times and lit up a few others.
  • Old Tim Wakefield, immediately prior to retirement
  • The pre-surgery version of John Lackey
  • Andrew Miller, Starting Pitcher
  • The Immortal Kyle Weiland
  • ERIK BEDARD
So, um, that's your problem right there.

edited to clarify my point: namely, that the projected standings can't have known that the Sox rotation had completely fallen apart in the second half. You don't expect a .614 team through the end of August to play their last month at a .259 clip, but the rare time it happens, this is why.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
So you're saying that the Sox should try to win the games they're playing?


If the Sox actually have the division locked up, I'll be shocked if they put a premium on fighting the Houston/Cleveland battle versus setting their rotation and giving their guys appropriate rest.
I'm saying they would do themselves an enormous service by acting like cold blooded assassins the rest of this road trip. Any Red Sox fan of any vintage recognizes that they tend to elevate doing things the hard way to an art form. There have been several points this year when they could have effectively put the division away, but went cold. Now is not the time for that.

I'm indifferent to the first round matchup. Both Cleve and Hous will be tough, and history tells me I'm a fool if I think I can figure out which will be tougher.

On the other hand, being able to set your rotation and rest people that final series strikes me as an unqualified positive.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
4,736
The starting rotation that September included contributions from:
  • Prime Vintage Jon Lester, who seems to have been out of gas after a strong season.
  • An ailing Josh Beckett, who was skipped a few times and lit up a few others.
  • Old Tim Wakefield, immediately prior to retirement
  • The pre-surgery version of John Lackey
  • Andrew Miller, Starting Pitcher
  • The Immortal Kyle Weiland
  • ERIK BEDARD
So, um, that's your problem right there.

edited to clarify my point: namely, that the projected standings can't have known that the Sox rotation had completely fallen apart in the second half. You don't expect a .614 team through the end of August to play their last month at a .259 clip, but the rare time it happens, this is why.
And that's all before counting the 4 games an imploding Daniel Bard personally lost in the last month.
 

staz

Intangible
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 2, 2004
20,662
The cradle of the game.
It's not over yet, but the fat lady is at least in the dressing room clearing her throat.
Tied with OAK (!) for the longest win streak in MLB (5). I'd be telling my regulars that every day the streak continues means another off day next weekend. Would very much like to get this wrapped up before HOU comes to town.

Successfully defending the AL East crown (first time in team history) is no small feat. Compared to last year's clinch-aster, next week is going to rock.
 

bob burda

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,549
And that's all before counting the 4 games an imploding Daniel Bard personally lost in the last month.
They scored more than 5 runs only 7 times the whole month - they lost one of those games 11-10, and they did eek out a 4-3 win - it was global collapse of the offense and pitching/defense. To go 7-20 you pretty much have to play like the '62 Mets, and they did.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
42,288
AZ
With a bit of a schedule disparity and the Yankees holding home field if there is a play in, tomorrow feels like the biggest day of the year so far in the AL East.

If both teams win, or both lose, or the Sox win and Yankees lose then I think the Yankees really have to start thinking hard about setting things up for the Wild Card game and a potential road matchup soon after. If the Yankees win and the Sox lose, this will likely go to the last weekend and anything's possible. I mean, of course anything's possible either way. And it's not like the Yankees are all of the sudden going to stop trying to win, but with both teams headed home for 7 games tomorrow evening, the situation starts to look like endgame if the Sox chip at least one off of their magic number.

Given these teams' propensity for drama, I'm kind of expecting that the Sox will lose and the Yankees will win tomorrow.
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
38,144
Quietly the Sox have been mowing down pricks.

I have no idea how the playoffs are going to go. I won't be surprised either way. Just glad they didn't blow the season like it seemed they might in July.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,376
Sox' pitching has given up 4 runs in their last 44 innings (0.82 era). And those four runs came on one single swing. Amazing run by the pitching staff. When it ends, it will probably end hard and they'll get lit up, but man, this has been incredible to watch.
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
8,681
What an amazing run. It's so much fun to be following a team that goes into the 8th inning down 4-1 and you're thinking 'What is it, down three runs? They can do this'.

I expect a last gasp from the Yankees this week but it is so nice to be on the other side of one of these situations where the calendar is just running out on the chasing team.
 

Unin10D

New Member
Feb 7, 2017
257
It definitely feels like they aren't quite as strung out and limping to the finish like they were last year. The 2017 Red Sox have been one of the most frustrating baseball teams to watch at times, but they are fun. Excited to see what happens in October
 

pk1627

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 24, 2003
2,515
Boston
This thread started noting the disparity in road games between the two teams. The Sox had 9; other thing 3. It was supposed to be the crucial difference. Many ran about with great wailing.

And it was the crucial difference. Sox brand of baseball and resilience plays well on the road. They went 8-1; MFY 1-2.

Week to go in the stretch run. Initials returns have been outstanding. As has the baseball we've seen.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
33,253
Astros are now 2.5 behind the Indians for the 1 seed with 7 to play, and I forgot the Indians have the head-to-head tiebreaker, so it's effectively 3.5. The Indians get to go home against the Twins and White Sox, while the Astros go to Texas and us.

meanwhile we are 4 behind the Astros, but Texas really has nothing to play for as they're all but out of it (6 behind the Twins with 7 to play). this becomes intriguing if we are 2 back by Thursday - winning 3/4 against them would then give us home field. This is a long shot for sure but it's not astronomically impossible and another score to watch over the next 3 days.

I suspect by Friday both teams will literally have nothing to play for.
 

canyoubelieveit

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 8, 2006
7,711
Astros are now 2.5 behind the Indians for the 1 seed with 7 to play, and I forgot the Indians have the head-to-head tiebreaker, so it's effectively 3.5. The Indians get to go home against the Twins and White Sox, while the Astros go to Texas and us.

meanwhile we are 4 behind the Astros, but Texas really has nothing to play for as they're all but out of it (6 behind the Twins with 7 to play). this becomes intriguing if we are 2 back by Thursday - winning 3/4 against them would then give us home field. This is a long shot for sure but it's not astronomically impossible and another score to watch over the next 3 days.

I suspect by Friday both teams will literally have nothing to play for.
It would be nice for the Sox to have home field advantage, but the Astros have actually been better on the road so far this year...home: 48-33, road: 47-27. (Although if the Sox do manage to get home field advantage, that would mean that the Astros would have added a bunch more road losses to their record before the end of the season).