Stop hoarding TP(E) - the what should the Celtics do with the TPE thread
- Thread starter NomarsFool
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Kelly Oubre sucks. His name was used as a metaphor for the Warriors ownership spending well over the cap. I'm sorry I ever used it
Yes. I'm aware of how a TPE works as a portal.
You skipped right on past the point I was making, where you argue the Celtics can't possibly get anyone that can help because all they have are low first round picks to offer. But, if most of their competition for players can't even offer those low first round picks, that puts a Celtics package offering their picks ahead of those teams.
The other thing to add is that Boston is actually shopping for different things than other contenders. Every team needs more wings but if a two way big on a bad team became available, none of the Lakers, Clippers, Jazz or 76ers are likely to play in that market. You would think that Boston would check in at least.
Ah, but would the Raptors trade him to a division rival?
I think the Celtics can get someone who would help with the TPE and their assets. A noncontending team like the Bulls with an overpriced expiring contract such as Otto Porter might be happy to extract an asset rather than pay that salary. I just don’t see that path as a way to acquire John Collins or some established cornerstone player as others are suggesting.
The Kings play Bjelica for the first time in ages, and he turns in a strong game:
https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401267565
https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401267565
Are the Celtics assets that much worse than those the Nets used to acquire Harden? Or the Lakers to get Davis? Or the Clippers to get George? None of those draft picks are going to be meaningful in the near future either.
Nets parted with LaVert and Jarrett Allen in that deal. Those are two players who'd be in the C's top six or seven.
Clearly the C's should be able to upgrade their roster, especially the bench, without breaking up their core. But I'm not sure someone like John Collins is a realistic target for Boston if offered only low-value draft picks, the TPE and unproven players.
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Maybe this is Danny's plan. Make it look like we are collapsing and our future picks will be in the lottery as we approach the trade deadline.
Then we release our secret weapons, Nesmith and Langford.
Re Collins, it is entirely possible (maybe even likely) that Atlanta does not move him, or will only move him for a proven NBA talent coming back.
At the outset of the season, it is fair to say Collins did not seem like part of the Hawk's long term plan and would be available at the right price. But since then the FA acquisitions have largely underwhelmed and Collins play has continued to improve. Making the playoffs is imperative if the current regime wants to remain employed. So even if you believe it is in the franchise's best interest to move on from Collins, Schlenk has a strong disincentive to move him for a package of picks or unproven guys.
At the outset of the season, it is fair to say Collins did not seem like part of the Hawk's long term plan and would be available at the right price. But since then the FA acquisitions have largely underwhelmed and Collins play has continued to improve. Making the playoffs is imperative if the current regime wants to remain employed. So even if you believe it is in the franchise's best interest to move on from Collins, Schlenk has a strong disincentive to move him for a package of picks or unproven guys.
Since the Celtics operate with fiscal prudence*, Danny should probably figure out a Kemba plan over the next 6 weeks, prior to using cap/assets for a non-needle mover like Harrison Barnes. Try to move Kemba at the deadline (for expirings) or at the latest this Summer. Assets will be needed there (~Horford 2020 deal). Then proceed with the $28.5MM TPE, which could be used in multiple ways (add an asset).
Everything should be built with an eye towards the Jays next 4-5 seasons. If that dents our chances in 2021, it sucks but is understandable. The Kemba deal soured things after 4mths, sometimes it's best to cut losses and move on. Acquiring Barnes just tightens the noose on the Celtics optionality.
To answer your question, the game-changer I'd want is John Collins. He doesn't impact the Hayward TPE and doesn't trip the repeater. I believe Atlanta will lose him by this Summer. IMO the C's have the assets to make it happen. For example, Atlanta getting unprotected 1sts/pick swap + Grant + Nesmith is much better than they'll get in an S&T. Not sure what other contenders are offering for JC, but like @mcpickl noted not many have the picks + young controlled players to offer.
BUT since 99.9% of fake trades don't happen it's probably a pipe dream.
*All my Kemba contract hand wringing could be moot if Wyc is comfortable just burning tax dollars, which would be great as a fan.
I am a fan of getting Collins, but this seems like way excessive value to give for 1/2 year + his restricted rights.
agreed, was trying to exhibit that the Celtics have the assets to make JC happen and have assets left to deal with Kemba's contract
This ownership has consistently spent to acquire and retain talent. I think the key for Ainge is trying to time the tax situation to coincide with the Jays’ championship window.
Would you be comfortable then trading the ‘21/‘23/‘25 picks with ’22/‘24 swaps, like the Davis/Holiday deals, and then give Collins a Jaylenesque contract in the 4 year/$120 million range?
It's a good point. Some guys will clearly be way beyond our means like Beal and LaVine (surprised if the latter is really on the block anyway, but even if he were...). But we have picks and players that have nonzero value. And even more importantly, we have teams that will likely be looking to dump salary, change culture (even if only addition by subtraction), eliminate logjams, or recoup some value for an asset, and we don't force them to take back money.
Maybe Atl wants to get something for a guy that they have no plans to resign. Maybe some other team is willing to let their 5th/6th player go in order to cut down on their luxury payments this year (and mitigate downside revenue risks).
We don't know anything for sure. But with Covid revenue and the weird schedule overall (condensed schedule, psuedo mini road bubbles), we could see unusual things happen in the trade market. We could see guys moved because they rub a star the wrong way, and he is sick of spending his waking life trapped with the SOB. We could see a team dump a half decent player into one of our TPEs for less than normal value just to save cash.
I think that is an excessive amount of picks. I don't see an NBA team offering that.
and the deal I offered was more than generous
JC isn't in the same zip code as AD
You give up that amount of value for any player who has FA rights of any sort, and you have to assume you will be giving up the supermax because otherwise he threatens to walk and you are left with nada.
The idea of moving PP should pain you. One of the great things about the Cs is stable management, and I think it's clear that DA's trying to maximize the Js championship window. The only way to do that is to keep getting young, cost controlled talent. The only way PP gets moved if it's in a jaw-dropping, no brainer trade and I can't even think of one that is realistic.
You're referring to Bjelica, correct? If so, are you saying that Bjelica is an upgrade over The Is? I've not followed Bjelica at all but from reputation, it seems that the only place where Bjelica might be better is long-range shooting so if they are playing the 2-big lineup against a team like MIL, I think BOS plays The Is over Bjelica.
Maybe I am misunderstanding your post.
I was just trying to clarify what that offer was, as you wrote:
As I understand it, the most another team can offer Collins as a RFA is 4/$121M, which is why I floated the $120M range as a question.
He's a much better shooter than Thompson and a better shooter than Theis historically (history matters in terms of gravity/spacing). He's a better passer than both. The Kings have used him as a point forward at times. He's a slightly better rebounder than Theis. I like him as a low cost acquisition. He gives additional flexibility and optionality for CSB. Like our existing bigs his playing time would be matchup dependent. He's got reasonably active hands, but is not a plus defender. Stevens could experiment some fun five out units. Maybe he juices the offense enough to make up for the defensive hit.
If Danny can get a third team to help out so we can use the Kanter TPE (i.e. convert the Kanter TPE into a player who can either be packaged with Waters etc.for matching purposes, or can be stepped up on his own), instead of digging into the Hayward TPE I would be all for it.
I’m saying Bjelica next to Theis (or next to TT or TL) is better than the 2 5s configurations they’ve run. He’s a better shooter and passer than any of them and more of a pure 4.
Against Milwaukee you’d have Bjelica guard Lopez which isn’t great but also isn’t terrible and is much better at other end.
Agree with others too—Theis is a better player, but Bjelica adds a shooting threat and is a better fit in some lineups. So it’s a useful piece who is 10 minutes some games and 20 in others
If there is in fact a twp big lineup out there, I think Thompson/Bjelica is better than Thompson/Theis. Not because I think Bjelica is better than Theis, but he is probably a comparable defender of 4's, perhaps a little wrose, but he spreads the floor in a way that Theis can't.
The Celtics situation is really, really similar to that of the Sixers a year ago. Two young stars, not tons of other internal development (honestly PP is better than anything young the Sixers had), a big contract for a still-useful but overpaid player, and mediocre draft picks going forward indefinitely.
Honestly the Celtics are lucky that they don't have a Tobias Harris deal: they can likely turn the TPE into a similar player but for ~half the price. They also have Smart, who, if engaged defensively, is better than the rest of the Sixers' roster.
The Morey blueprint seems applicable here: spend some assets to ditch the big contract, hopefully taking back useful roleplayer pieces in return. Use other middling assets to acquire role players who look a lot better when playing next to your stars. Hope that you hit some of those late draft picks that you keep (PP is a good start).
It's not the same as adding a 3rd star, and it's definitely worse than having Kemba be good, but these aren't the years of the Warriors' dynasty. If you have two stars + Smart, and add the right roleplayers around them, you can absolutely contend.
Honestly the Celtics are lucky that they don't have a Tobias Harris deal: they can likely turn the TPE into a similar player but for ~half the price. They also have Smart, who, if engaged defensively, is better than the rest of the Sixers' roster.
The Morey blueprint seems applicable here: spend some assets to ditch the big contract, hopefully taking back useful roleplayer pieces in return. Use other middling assets to acquire role players who look a lot better when playing next to your stars. Hope that you hit some of those late draft picks that you keep (PP is a good start).
It's not the same as adding a 3rd star, and it's definitely worse than having Kemba be good, but these aren't the years of the Warriors' dynasty. If you have two stars + Smart, and add the right roleplayers around them, you can absolutely contend.
Tobias Harris is averaging 20 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists. He's shooting 52 percent from the floor and 42 percent from 3-point range. I'll believe the TPE brings the C's anything close to Harris when I see it, but I hope you're right.
What do people here think of Lauri Markkanen anyway? He's currently out but he's been mentioned as available. There's a fit, but I'm not sure how good the fit is or what kind of contract he'll get.
His defense has been really bad. I'd rather just keep Theis and pay him than rent Lauri and potentially have to match a contract.
He could be available as an S&T RFA this Summer if Danny really likes him?
His stock has really plummeted, hasn't it? There was a ton of buzz around him when he was a rookie.
if Lauri is a buy-low guy then nothing wrong in adding a 7' that will eventually shoot 40% from 3.
Offensively seems like he bounced back this season (62.2 eFG%).
He's young, timelines well...not the worst move if he could be added, just hard to hide his D.
I'm a broken record on this but Danny needs to figure out the Kemba conundrum before they can be using assets to acquire more bad defenders
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/markkla01.html
Markanen is good offense bad defense. The next contract would be the concern, but on the other hand, he's a year older than Grant and to me a much better player with a much higher ceiling.
I don't know that he's a fit, but if he was cheap... sure.
I don't know that he's a fit, but if he was cheap... sure.
40% from 3 at ridiculous volume for a 7 footer. That's why I see a fit, but there are flaws. Theis is up at the end of the year too. It really is about acquisition price. His contract right now is only $6.7 million too. He wouldn't take much of the TPE.
What is buy low though? I'd gladly give up a 1st round pick for him but I doubt that gets it done. Is he really a much worse option than John Collins? Seems like a far more reasonable get and that he'd sign for much less.
Career 3PA/36 and 3pt %: Lauri 7.4, .360. Collins 2.8, .374.
Lauri 414/1151 for his career, Collins is 166/444. Lauri also hasn't really been able to stay healthy, but Collins was also using steroids.
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Is Markkanen a bad defender because he’s incapable of playing better defense, or is he a bad defense because he plays for a bad team that plays bad defense? That is, would be be a more acceptable defender in a better situation? I haven’t seen enough of him to know either way, but his offense plus acceptable defense would be a solid acquisition, and Chicago hasn’t been a great place to play while he’s been there.
Can't say I've watched Lauri much, how does he move on the perimeter? I'm open-minded, especially with players aged within the JayCrew timeline.
While I've pumped Collins, he's pretty pipe dreamy.
I mean... yes Collins is much better.
Last 3 years (and that's helpful to Lauri, last 2 and the differences on defense are more pronounced):
Lauri shoots more 3s, that's basically it.
Collins is a much more efficient scorer, better rebounder, better passer, draws more fouls.
BPM thinks he's a much better player
RAPTOR thinks he's been the better player each of those 3 years
DARKO thinks he's been better.
I don't put a ton into all-in-one's but all of them agreeing, and the category stats backing it up is a useful check.
John Collins is good, really good. It's why he'll be expensive and may well get maxed. Lauri is more of a 1 skill guy, but that skill is useful, and he probably won't get anywhere near as big a contract.
With the caveat I haven't see much either.. on offense, he moves very well. The more I look into him, he's a perfect fit offensively. The last 2 years, 54% of his FGA have been 3PA and coming out of college, some considered him the best shooter in the draft. He's a legit stretch big on offense. He has "gravity." He doesn't shoot 40% from 3 in the way Daniel Theis shoots 40% from 3.
On D, he has legit size. Unfortunately, he's not very long and he's not that strong. I think if he can hit 40% of his 3s while attempt 7-8 a night and playing 30+ minutes, the C's can live with the defense, although that may be compounded with Kemba. Lauri isn't really strong enough to play against 5s and not quick enough to play 4s. He will probably always be below average, but possibly can be hidden.
On O though... the C's would be unstoppable if Lauri was playing as a stretch 4 or 5. At least imo. I think he is a much better fit than Collins. Neither are that good on D, the C's don't really need Collins rebounding, and Collins game isn't mostly living behind the arc. He would also cost a lot more and doesn't have Lauri's size. I think both would be playing 30+ minutes a night and would require moving one of Theis/TL/TT, while another in that group would never play. It would turn the big man rotation into a 2 man rotation instead of 3. I guess they could continue to go with the 2 big lineup, too. Even if they do, Lauri/John should be playing considerably more minutes than any of Theis/TL/TT are playing now.
I'm actually really talking myself into Lauri. I saw his name mentioned in a blurb about a week ago and looked him up in passing and thought no. Now that I look closer, I think he's a really good fit. Not perfect, but good.
If they somehow managed to add Lauri and Lonzo and extend both of them... How awesome would that be? That might require moving Smart though, unless they could somehow unload Kemba. If they could keep Smart, running a lineup of Jay/Jay/Lauri/Lonzo/Smart would be ridiculous.
Thing is, I'm not sure Lauri+ Lonzo is more of a pipe dream than Collins. I'm not sure the acquisition cost would be more either. I'm also not sure the combined cost of signing both would be all that much more. Still a pipedream though.
edit: I could be wrong on the combined price. I'm not sure what the max would be for JC and I'm not really sure how much LM or Ball will get. I'm not even entirely sure JC gets the max. Hard to gauge.
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This is fair, but I think Lauri is still the better fit and I'd rather acquire him. Partly because the contract will be much cheaper, because he'd require less assets in a trade, and because I think a lot of Collins skill set will be wasted here. Lauri's skillset will be maximized to its fullest.
That isn't really what I asked though. I asked if Collins was much better, and yeah. He is.
This is a question I always ask as well. I go back to a players physical skills along with his motor to project how a functional system would help him defensively. In Markkanen’s case he has always struggled with physical play dating back to college and has never shown that extra competitiveness you want to see for a player to grow. He isn’t that long so he can’t compensate with additional wingspan. He’s always been a “finesse” player which usually means......he’s soft. I’d say that is accurate in this case.
Summary: He is what he looks like. Good shooter, soft interior defender, poor rebounder, a guy who is likely at his ceiling. If the opportunity presents itself he may be a good rotation player on winning team but for what his price tag will be it’s more likely he’ll continue being a numbers guy on lottery teams until he’s available for lesser dollars down the road.
Do you have any guesses as to how much Collins, Lonzo and Lauri will sign for?
My guesses.....
Collins will certainly sign a max offer sheet with someone (not a guess here, he will) and I wouldn’t expect Atlanta to match so I expect him to either be traded by the deadline or the Hawks arrange for a sign-and-trade during FA to ensure the signing team that they won’t match. Either way, the Hawks will receive “something” in return but it will be far below what his trade market value would be if not for the contract situation.
I’d guess Ball’s value is similar to Rozier’s two years ago so between $15-20m AAV is going to be his range. Anything more than 20 or less than 15 would shock the hell out of me.
Markkanen is the guy I think will be the beneficiary of the top FA having already signed extensions. He’s gonna get paid and I wouldn’t be shocked if he signed with a lottery team for a number that will blow people’s minds. Maybe not max but close to it. Obviously I don’t value him nearly this high but if you are a lottery team with cap space and want to be as competitive as possible I can see Markkannen being the big winner this summer.
Yeah, I don't value Lauri that high either. In my pipe dream scenario where the C's acquired both Lonzo and Lauri, they both sign for around 4/60 to 4/80 and they unload Kemba. In the more realistic pipe dream scenario, they trade Smart, TT+. I could see Ball possibly getting Marcus Smart money too but if he's still hitting 3s at a league average rate on 7.5 attempts a game for the rest of the season, he's going to get paid a lot closer to the $20 figure.
Aaron Gordon, Zach Lavine, Oladipo strike me as Lauri financial comps but it only takes 1 gm.
I could see why some people would be against replacing Smart with Ball but it's very possible Ball is a considerably better 3 point shooter than Marcus Smart. He's also younger and potentially has more room for improvement. I'd be for it anyway, even without Lauri. Ball + Smart may even be a better combo if Ball is really a league average+ 3 point shooter on heavy volume. They should be able to play together at that point. Could also go with Lauri and Smart. I'd prefer Lauri and Ball though if it could be worked. Looking into it, it would be difficult.
Just as a thought process, If Lauri was a .400 3 point shooter for his career his numbers change from
.437/.360/.848, .522 EFG, .562 TS%
to
.455/.400/.848, .550 EFG%, .588 TS%
He also shoots .663 from inside 3 feet, .809 this year in limited sample size. One would think he would stop shooting as many 3-10 foot jumpers on the C's but you never know. 15% of his FGA come from 3-10 ft, where he a .396 shooter. He's at .552 this year but that is not sustainable. Last season and so far this season, 4.1% and 4.3% of his FGA came from 10-3p. He's also not that bad a defensive rebounder, but he is a bad offensive rebounder. How much of that is system, I don't know.
With the volume he shoots, only shooting more is a pretty huge deal. Still wouldn't be close to Collins .603 EFG% and .634 TS%, but over their careers, the NBA average was .526 and .561. Lauri would be well above average. With less 3-10 ft shoots, it would improve drastically. With the C's, it's also possible he attempts even less FGs within 3 ft too, so that would be a trade off. .663 inside 0-3 works out better than a .400 from 3.
.437/.360/.848, .522 EFG, .562 TS%
to
.455/.400/.848, .550 EFG%, .588 TS%
He also shoots .663 from inside 3 feet, .809 this year in limited sample size. One would think he would stop shooting as many 3-10 foot jumpers on the C's but you never know. 15% of his FGA come from 3-10 ft, where he a .396 shooter. He's at .552 this year but that is not sustainable. Last season and so far this season, 4.1% and 4.3% of his FGA came from 10-3p. He's also not that bad a defensive rebounder, but he is a bad offensive rebounder. How much of that is system, I don't know.
With the volume he shoots, only shooting more is a pretty huge deal. Still wouldn't be close to Collins .603 EFG% and .634 TS%, but over their careers, the NBA average was .526 and .561. Lauri would be well above average. With less 3-10 ft shoots, it would improve drastically. With the C's, it's also possible he attempts even less FGs within 3 ft too, so that would be a trade off. .663 inside 0-3 works out better than a .400 from 3.
Collins is my favorite. But interested in Ball, Markkanen. All timeline w/JayCrew & have the potential to improve in a better situation. RFA is a place the Celtics could exploit the Hayward TPE, at a lower cost in terms of assets/talent than a trade deadline deal. Danny should also consider other FA/RFA like Gary Trent Jr, Norman Powell, Jarret Allen. Even keep an eye on Malik Monk, Josh Hart or Devonte Graham.
This summer would be a good time for Danny to consolidate our young guys/assets and surround the Jays with competent, ascending players. Plus move Kemba
This summer would be a good time for Danny to consolidate our young guys/assets and surround the Jays with competent, ascending players. Plus move Kemba
Yes to all of this, he's been the guy most people thought he would be coming out of Arizona- a one-dimensional 7 footer who's one skill is the most important one in the game. I would've expected his 3pt% to be a bit higher, but going forward I expect he'll be closer to 40% than 35%. There's a lot of Rashard Lewis to his game- a finesse SG in a PF's body, who typically looks better in shoot-arounds than in games. I do think he's a really good fit for this roster to upgrade the Semi/Grant minutes.
More generally, the past two weeks have made me pretty wary of trading Marcus. Even in a subpar season for him, I think he really does elevate the team's intensity and energy. I'm probably putting too much stock into Marcus the hype-man intangible god, but when he's at his best- playing next to a PG and not tasked with too much offensive responsibility- the team just operates differently. They've been so flat without him. Maybe that's accentuated by the empty arenas, and when the fans are back teams won't have to manufacture energy as much, but I worry about it becoming a thing.
CLE and TOR nearing a deal for Drummond? i dont see how TOR gets up to the 23 million in salary needed though.
https://theathletic.com/2387459/2021/02/15/nba-trade-news-andre-drummond-to-raptors-coming-lonzo-ball-interest-and-more/
Ainge ins't going to panic and throw a second to CLE for Drummond is he?
https://theathletic.com/2387459/2021/02/15/nba-trade-news-andre-drummond-to-raptors-coming-lonzo-ball-interest-and-more/
Ainge ins't going to panic and throw a second to CLE for Drummond is he?