Sterling prediction thread. Deadline 2pm Tues 4/29

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soxfan121

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JimBoSox9 said:
I thought Jnai made a good point. I hadn't considered the potential for litigation from the perspective of how Sterling is viewing this news cycle. Like you, I wasn't really crediting him with any human reactions and didn't consider that he may actually be troubled by his now-magnified racist reputation.

The guy I heard on that recording was unquestionably a racist, but he multiple times vehemently denied it in a way that felt plausible it's sincere in his own twisted head. You'd be surprised how many of these guys really believe they're being fair and logical while at the same time fundamentally conflating economic/class issues with racial ones.

I still can't say a full Sterling seppuku to save his rep feels like the likely path, but it would be fascinating.
 
The Business Insider piece posted up thread details Sterling's long history of racial discrimination. In it, he is likened to a Plantation Owner, with all that entails. It fits. 
 
Of course, his comments about the tenants are the other side of how much he "loves" black people. The man does not operate on the same plane of existence the rest of us do. 
 
Dec 10, 2012
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Temporary suspension.
 
Power granted to someone not related to him in the organization in conjunction with the NBA.
 
Large fine, recipient decided by players and/or city of LA and/or NBA, not the Sterlings.
 
Apology
 
Required counseling (for open-mindedness, non-racism, etc.)
 

jose melendez

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I don't buy this three fourths thing.  What do they do after the vote?  Force him to sell--at what price, to who, how?  
 
If they do get him to sell, I bet it ends up being at the absolute peak of, or even above normal market value  (someone who will pay a premium to be seen as saving the team from the bigot).
 

Jnai

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wutang112878 said:
 
Not to pick on you because a lot of people are doing it, but I dont understand why people are assuming Sterling is a decent, normal human being who take rationale steps.  He publicly flaunts a mistress.  He wasnt concerned with her flaunting those pictures instead he was concerned with the skin color of the person she was flaunting.  He literally said "Don't bring black people, and don't come."  If he was image conscious he probably would have quietly settled the housing discrimination lawsuits against him, but he fought those until the bitter end instead.  I'm sure he's a little concerned about the punishment he might get, but I think its more likely that he is preparing to dig his heels in and fight than being beside himself.
 
I think he's a racist asshole, but he's an incredibly image conscious racist asshole. He changed his name to avoid being associated with being Jewish. He doesn't care about flaunting a mistress because it's not a net negative for his image. He was receiving a *second!* lifetime achievement award from the LA NAACP after likely donating them a ton of money. He has a totally twisted world view - but he cares how he's perceived in that world. The fact is, despite all of his previous racist assholishness, his history of racism wasn't really in the public eye.
 
Maybe the previous stuff never stuck as a result of a different news cycle, TMZ, deadspin, whatever. Maybe because before, there was always a shred of legal doubt - now there's an audio recording of the guy saying racist things. Maybe it wasn't important because the Clippers were awful and there was no reason to really care. Who knows.
 
This is different. The guy is A1 newspaper material right now. He's going to stay A1 newspaper material for as long as he owns that basketball team. Once the season ends, there's going to be a ton of players who flat out refuse to play. There will be sponsors pulling out left and right. There will be new allegations from more audio recordings (heard on the radio driving back from CT yesterday that there are hundreds of hours floating around). Every one of these stories will all be front page news as long as he owns the Clippers. As soon as he stops owning the Clippers, he's no longer news.
 

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jose melendez said:
I don't buy this three fourths thing.  What do they do after the vote?  Force him to sell--at what price, to who, how?  
 
If they do get him to sell, I bet it ends up being at the absolute peak of, or even above normal market value  (someone who will pay a premium to be seen as saving the team from the bigot).
 
Forbes has them at $575m, but that's from January, before the Bucks got $555m. Lakers are at $1.35b. After the Bucks sale the Clips should be around $700,?
 

Stanley Steamer

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Just for variety's sake, I predict that at halftime tonight, he will be paraded out on the court, smeared with honey then covered by an army of fire ants, drawn and quartered by 4 mighty stallions, then hanged by the neck until dead.
 
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Stanley Steamer said:
Just for variety's sake, I predict that at halftime tonight, he will be paraded out on the court, smeared with honey then covered by an army of fire ants, drawn and quartered by 4 mighty stallions, then hanged by the neck until dead.
When does he get covered in a white hood, before the ants or after?
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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Tony C said:
If Silver comes out and says he's going to call for that 3/4 vote, I have a hard time thinking that 1/4 of league owners would dare stand up to the sort of pressure they'd be under to go along. It's his smart move.
 
I think the owners will do everything that they possibly can to keep Silver from doing this, to the point where a few of them get in a room with him and tell him directly "you deal with this."  They want to wash their hands of this as completely as possible, and they want to avoid doing anything that could make them a target of one of Sterling's lawsuits.  It is also a slippery slope that they don't want to go down, and have to deal with the next time an owner says something foolish.    
 

singaporesoxfan

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jose melendez said:
I just want it to be something that makes the Clippers suck. 
For the longest time, that was the ownership of Donald Sterling.

Aside: thinking about the Clippers, I just realised that four members of the Clippers' 1996-97 squad are dead (Kevin Duckworth, Dwayne Schintzius, Malik Sealy, Lorenzen Wright).
 

soxfan121

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bosox79 said:
If they could contract, why couldn't they expand right after? The LA whatever.
 
Lawsuits. 
 
The answer to most of the "what if they do X?" questions in this thread is "lawsuits". Sterling is famously litigious and will absolutely sue if he's suspended, fined or has control of the team taken from him. And he'd most likely win, or at least make it so messy and expensive for the NBA that it would make a league win pyrrhic at best.
 

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Van Everyman said:
What would be interesting is if after one owner blows it bc he fails to realize that rich people don't live in a bubble anymore 29 other owners make the same mistake.

This whole episode, embarrassing as it is, is ultimately a referendum on sports ownership – specifically the end of a century living by a completely different set of rules than everyone else. Rules that permit racism and bigotry, abject cruelty and unethical business practices that were largely eradicated from the workplace decades ago.

Social media may enact a crude form of justice—and these guys will continue, by and large, to be assholes of the highest order—but in the long run, this will be a good thing because it establishes that how these guys conduct themselves—in public and private—matters.

My prediction: he is suspended, fined and the path is paved for transfer of ownership to his lovely wife.
 
excellent post.
 
singaporesoxfan said:
For the longest time, that was the ownership of Donald Sterling.

Aside: thinking about the Clippers, I just realised that four members of the Clippers' 1996-97 squad are dead (Kevin Duckworth, Dwayne Schintzius, Malik Sealy, Lorenzen Wright).
 
and it still is the Sterling ownership -- what a bane to that organization he has been, even its long overdue rise to glory is ruined by this moron.
 

jon abbey

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What I'm expecting today, Part 1: Silver announces lifetime suspension for DS and that he's starting franchise termination process ASAP.
 
What I'm expecting today, Part 2: NBA Players Assoc. demands July free agency for all Clipper players unless NBA sells Clippers ASAP.
 

jon abbey

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What is "franchise termination process"? Disbanding the team?
 

ElUno20

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The league saved my clipps once with the cp3 trade. They'll have to do it again today. Anything that doesn't show a hint of hope that he's going to be forced out is a death nail for the franchise
 

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soxfan121 said:
 
.... Sterling is famously litigious .....
 
If she could have a do-over, do you think his wife would still sue the mistress?  Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind applies to both Sterlings. 
 

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jose melendez said:
I don't buy this three fourths thing.  What do they do after the vote?  Force him to sell--at what price, to who, how?  
 
 
That's exactly where I've been since the 3/4 of owners was confirmed.  OK, he has to sell:  now what?  What if he says No?    What's the time frame?  Does the general public think he's going to accept a below market offer just because the league says he has to sell?  (I understand, in reality the league will do everything in it's power to find a buyer with deep pockets, simply to keep up the value of NBA teams in general)
 

wutang112878

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Dan to Theo to Ben said:
that's the same thing as franchise termination, no?
 
It may be semantics and this is all a guess on my part, but effectively it accomplishes the same thing but does so differently.  I am fairly confident that there is language in the NBA constitution to permit contraction dependent upon a vote from the owners and I would assume they can choose which franchise to contract without major restrictions on the selection process.  Whereas with termination if they are targeting a specific franchise due to retribution or because of conduct detrimental then I dont know if that creates more of a legal fight.  Its all just conjecture because the NBA constitution has never been made public as far as I know.
 

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You're not getting it. The point isn't to be a judge and calmly lay out what is a realistic short term goal, the point is to lay out that he's out of the league and then, sure, if he wants to fight it out, do so. But it's only by going to the maximum out of the shoot that the NBA can save its own image and save the Clippers.  "What if he says no?" is not a question they need to focus on: they need to get on the right side of the issue and make clear they can't be outflanked on that front.
 

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As a Celtics fan, I am liking this free agency thing, though I am skeptical it could actually happen, especially if Sterling is removed. I think going the 3/4 route is really dangerous and will not sit well with owners. This could become a real mess.
 

jon abbey

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I disagree that this is really such a slippery slope (although I certainly understand why Cuban would say that repeatedly), but it took decades of behaving like this to put Sterling in this position. This is just the final, very public, straw.
 

fairlee76

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ElUno20 said:
The league saved my clipps once with the cp3 trade. They'll have to do it again today. Anything that doesn't show a hint of hope that he's going to be forced out is a death nail for the franchise
 
 
Tony C said:
You're not getting it. The point isn't to be a judge and calmly lay out what is a realistic short term goal, the point is to lay out that he's out of the league and then, sure, if he wants to fight it out, do so. But it's only by going to the maximum out of the shoot that the NBA can save its own image and save the Clippers.  "What if he says no?" is not a question they need to focus on: they need to get on the right side of the issue and make clear they can't be outflanked on that front.
I hope Silver chutes Sterling with a death knell.
 
P.S. - Or let him stay, make everyone a free agent, and watch the Celtics profit.
 

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jon abbey said:
I disagree that this is really such a slippery slope (although I certainly understand why Cuban would say that repeatedly), but it took decades of behaving like this to put Sterling in this position. This is just the final, very public, straw.
I think it's really just one public scandal. I don't think his past means much since it didn't hit TMZ. What's happening now would be happening regardless of his past, and that has to scare some owners.
 

bankshot1

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If the franchise is taken from Sterling for what he said in a private conversation, he may end up owning the NBA.
 
Given him a mega fine, suspend him from any role in operations for some indefinite time period, and if you reallt want to punish the guy, cut-off his viagra supply.
 

Average Reds

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jon abbey said:
What is "franchise termination process"? Disbanding the team?
 
The Clippers are an NBA franchise.  Sterling's ownership of the Clippers is governed by a franchise agreement, just like the person who owns a McDonald's is governed by a franchise agreement.   (The NBA may refer to it as a "constitution" or "member agreement" or some such nonsense, but it's a franchise agreement.)
 
Now, the franchise agreement for NBA owners is obviously unique, but the principle is the same.  If they terminate Sterling's franchise, they will not be contracting it - they'll be stripping him of the right to own the franchise.  The franchise will still exist and someone will own it.  He'll be compensated either directly by the NBA if/when they terminate his rights or by the next owner. 
 
Sterling would have the right to contest the termination.  And the question will be whether the NBA has followed the rules for termination laid out in their franchise agreement.   People are speculating that the NBA might not have the right to terminate his franchise rights for private conduct, but unless someone has read the termination clauses in the agreement, it really is just speculation.
 

bakahump

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Suspended from Day to day operations (including attending games) until further notice pending further investigations by the league.
 
Commish continues to investigate so he can get to the bottom.
 
Sterling, as a NAACP lifetime award recipient understands that allegations like this need to be fully investigated and agrees to the suspension. His mouth piece will be sure to also point out that they are confident that in the end the evidence will clear Sterling.
 

jon abbey

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Average Reds said:
 
The Clippers are an NBA franchise.  Sterling's ownership of the Clippers is governed by a franchise agreement, just like the person who owns a McDonald's is governed by a franchise agreement.   (The NBA may refer to it as a "constitution" or "member agreement" or some such nonsense, but it's a franchise agreement.)
 
Now, the franchise agreement for NBA owners is obviously unique, but the principle is the same.  If they terminate Sterling's franchise, they will not be contracting it - they'll be stripping him of the right to own the franchise.  The franchise will still exist and someone will own it.  He'll be compensated either directly by the NBA if/when they terminate his rights or by the next owner. 
 
Sterling would have the right to contest the termination.  And the question will be whether the NBA has followed the rules for termination laid out in their franchise agreement.   People are speculating that the NBA might not have the right to terminate his franchise rights for private conduct, but unless someone has read the termination clauses in the agreement, it really is just speculation.
 
Yeah, thanks, that is the same thing Lester Munson (who has read the agreement) was talking about in his ESPN piece a few days ago. The terminology just confused me a bit. 
 

Average Reds

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jon abbey said:
 
Yeah, thanks, that is the same thing Lester Munson (who has read the agreement) was talking about in his ESPN piece a few days ago. The terminology just confused me a bit. 
Shit, if I'm in agreement with Lester Munson I might have to take back everything.
 

riboflav

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Prediction: Silver credits Goodell specifically for founding a new tradition among newly minted commissioners having to punish those involved in illegal taping. Clippers lose first-round draft pick and Sterling is fined 500,000.
 

bakahump

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riboflav said:
Prediction: Silver credits Goodell specifically for founding a new tradition among newly minted commissioners having to punish those involved in illegal taping. Clippers lose first-round draft pick and Sterling is fined 500,000.
"....And that is why after having consulted with Former commissioner Stern I have decided to confiscate the Clippers 2015 Pick."
 
I am only half kidding.
 

wutang112878

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Tony C said:
You're not getting it. The point isn't to be a judge and calmly lay out what is a realistic short term goal, the point is to lay out that he's out of the league and then, sure, if he wants to fight it out, do so. But it's only by going to the maximum out of the shoot that the NBA can save its own image and save the Clippers.  "What if he says no?" is not a question they need to focus on: they need to get on the right side of the issue and make clear they can't be outflanked on that front.
 
I guess I just think its a balancing act.  If plan A is less ideal from a PR perspective but more likely to succeed, is it better than plan B if its better from a PR perspective but significantly less likely to succeed?  I cant figure out what the NBA prioritizes, getting him out or fixing their PR issue.
 

Jnai

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This guy has all the gravitas of an undergrad doing his first presentation. 
 
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