Eric Chavez resigned with Arizona.
NY pretty much has no other option but to resign Mark Reynolds to play 3rd now.
NY pretty much has no other option but to resign Mark Reynolds to play 3rd now.
Staying Under $189M: The Impossible Dream
- Thread starter jon abbey
- Start date
- Status
Sabathia no doubt is key and could go either way from ace to bust.Toe Nash said:
Relying on Pineda to be any improvement over what Pettite did last year is a big call in my opinion also. A right-handed pitcher that produces flyballs 45% of the time can get away with a lot in the old (deeper) Safeco, not so much in Yankee stadium. Just ask Phil Hughes how well that works out. Pineda does induce more groundballs than Hughes, but that infield defense isn't getting any better either.
If Tanaka is the next Darvish, he would have really helped the Yankees long term. He's only 26, right? I agree that he wouldn't have made much of a difference this year.jon abbey said:
This may be a good thing for the Yanks in that they can now stay under $189 if the ARod suspension is upheld and if they don't spend anymore money. With Tanaka, they would have definitely been over no matter what. Plus, he will still come available in the next year or two when his contract in Japan is done.
jon abbey said:
Well, Baltimore did finish tied with New York last year, and had a better +/-, as it was.
Sampo Gida said:
They never spent the money when they could. The Red Sox give bonuses over slot and get guys that would fall in the draft. Cecchini, Vasquez, Betts, and Britton are all guys in the system right now that they acquired in this way. You can even argue Ranuado as well.
Christ the Yankees failed to sign Gerrit Cole who was their first round pick in 2008 ten years after doing the same thing to Mark Prior. Cashman spends like a drunken sailor then gets cheap on the draft.
Beltran deal official, Brett Marshall DFAd.
No big loss there in Marshall, who I'd guess will clear waivers and come back to Scranton, but Vernon Wells still taking up a 40 man spot as the sixth OF is just ridiculous. Even if they end up trading Gardner or Ichiro (both unlikely IMO), some spring training cut would be preferable to Wells' corpse.
No big loss there in Marshall, who I'd guess will clear waivers and come back to Scranton, but Vernon Wells still taking up a 40 man spot as the sixth OF is just ridiculous. Even if they end up trading Gardner or Ichiro (both unlikely IMO), some spring training cut would be preferable to Wells' corpse.
Yanks offered Cole a $4M signing bonus as the 11th pick in first round. Definitely over slot. Cole and his family never negotiated with Yanks as they were committed to college at UCLA. If anything, Yanks should have vetted Cole and his family before drafting him. And drafted someone else. But you can't say they were cheap with cole.TomRicardo said:
Yanks drafted Mason Williams in fourth round of 2010, got him to sign with an $800,000 bonus, which was higher than their first-rounder Cito Culver got that year. Culver was a bust. Williams advancing slowly, should be in AA ball this year.
Yanks draft low in first round every year, or not at all. And they make stupid picks. Brackman, Culver, Justin Henry. It is a long list of low first-round blunders.
Wells just tweeted he's wearing No.19 this season. Called it "unimportant" news. At least he still has a sense of humor.jon abbey said:
terrynever said:
The Yankees never made Cole an offer. They tried to wait Boras out and Cole despite being a massive Yankee fan decided he just wanted to go college. The family told to Yankees to not even bother with an offer.
Edit - The point was the Yankees had a massive advantage that they never used. The Red Sox consistently used the strategy and landed guys like Middlebrooks, Rizzo, and Papelbon.
I keep finding stories that put the Yankees and $4M offer in the same sentence with Cole. Like this one. It's possible they never formally offered him, I guess.TomRicardo said:
http://doublegsports.com/2012/08/02/gerrit-cole-the-one-that-got-away-for-the-new-york-yankees/
I believe the deal with Cole was that going into the draft, his dad and he said he definitely wanted to attend college. His being a Yankee fan made him reconsider this somewhat, but in the end, he and his dad never gave NY a chance to bid/negotiate. I guess they could have been more aggressive, but it's hard to know for sure.
"Oppenheimer confirmed the team was prepared to offer Cole a far-above-slot $4M bonus, but they wouldn’t even listen to the offer."
http://riveraveblues.com/2013/05/five-years-later-the-2008-draft-87337/
"Oppenheimer confirmed the team was prepared to offer Cole a far-above-slot $4M bonus, but they wouldn’t even listen to the offer."
http://riveraveblues.com/2013/05/five-years-later-the-2008-draft-87337/
Interesting thought by Sherman (which others may have already said upthread): the MFY will spend like crazy if Slappy's not gone for the year (since that means they can't stay under $189mm) or do whatever it takes to stay under $189mm if Slappy gets suspended for 2014. I suspect this means that guys like Drew and Choo will wait until 1/13 or whenever the arbitration decision is made before signing, since the MFY could become big spenders if Slappy's not suspended for the year.
http://nypost.com/2013/12/19/yanks-could-go-on-shopping-spree-if-pushed-over-luxury-threshold/
http://nypost.com/2013/12/19/yanks-could-go-on-shopping-spree-if-pushed-over-luxury-threshold/
As much as it'd tweak the Steins to have A-Rod back for half of 2014 and passing Mays, his presence and the $$ they'd spend on guys like Ubaldo, Santana, Garza, Drew, etc. (having blown past 189 on A-Rod) would obviously make them a pain in the ass immediately.
I'd rather just lock in them stinking in '14. Let Hal and Hank bank their 10s of millions in tax savings and rebates. Starting in 2015, I'm sure they'll go right back up to $210M or so. Or a bit more. But the point being: I don't see where the savings in coming in once under the 189 means they're gonna pour all of those savings right into payroll and jack it to like an obscene $250 million or something.
Edit: Or, that is, maybe they do crank up payroll -- but they can do that regardless of the 10s of millions they'd get in a rebate. They're not targeting 189 to save money for spending in 2015 and beyond. They're targeting 189 because they're old, mediocre, and choking down that bone of non-contender for one more season is worth a lot of money. And it'd be insane business practice to blow the rebates just to win 87 games.
I'd rather just lock in them stinking in '14. Let Hal and Hank bank their 10s of millions in tax savings and rebates. Starting in 2015, I'm sure they'll go right back up to $210M or so. Or a bit more. But the point being: I don't see where the savings in coming in once under the 189 means they're gonna pour all of those savings right into payroll and jack it to like an obscene $250 million or something.
Edit: Or, that is, maybe they do crank up payroll -- but they can do that regardless of the 10s of millions they'd get in a rebate. They're not targeting 189 to save money for spending in 2015 and beyond. They're targeting 189 because they're old, mediocre, and choking down that bone of non-contender for one more season is worth a lot of money. And it'd be insane business practice to blow the rebates just to win 87 games.
You make it sound like spending money equates to more wins. Not always. Yanks could sign Tanaka and Shoo, go to $220M, and win 80 games if Tanaka is Dice-K and Choo gets the shakes in a big market. Hell, the Yankees won 85 games last year with a $220 payroll. The 2012 Red Sox were a .500 team in August with their biggest payroll ever.LeoCarrillo said:
glennhoffmania said:
Most successful teams have relatively good health and Jeter being injured won't be a bad thing IMO. Obviously, if they have too many significant injuries they won't go anywhere, like the 2010-2012 Red Sox.
You have to appreciate how bad they were last year at every offensive position except CF and 2B. A total of 1.4 WAR at 7 positions (DH, 1B, SS, 3B, C, RF, LF). Right now using steamer projections they are 10 W's stronger (assuming health) at those positions, although they have lost a projected 5 W at 2B. Adding Drew strengthens them by 2 WAR at 2B and 3B, and perhaps 7 wins better at all of the offensive positions than last year.
Kuroda is projected to have a 3.4 WAR by both Steamer and Zips. Last year the rotation had 14.8 WAR. Steamer projections suggest they are at 13.1. Adding Tanaka and that could jump that to 18, or about a 3 W better than last year.
At relief, they could be as good as last year with another strong arm, perhaps 1 win less w/o Benoit.
So yeah, add 10 wins to last years 80 W team and you have a team that could compete. No guarantees. I happen to think some of the projections for guys like Ellsbury, Gardner and Beltran are a bit low since I think their game plays well for that park and Gardner is a much better LF'er than CF'er. If Jeter gets injured, switch Drew to SS and they get even better
The projection business is a pretty uncertain business. By most accounts the Red Sox were not going to compete last year. I had them at 88 myself with a top end of 95 if they could stay healthy and guys off a bad year could rebound, and a low end of 81 if they got hit with a bunch of significant injuries like the previous years. The error bands are smaller for teams with less uncertainty and question marks.
The only thing I am certain about with the Yankees, and you obviously agree, is that the team as currently constructed probably won't compete. I think they are a couple of missing pieces from being able to compete with a bit of luck on the injury front. For fans, that's all you can ask, is a chance. I am more of a fan of the rivalry than a Yankee fan, but would like them to add those extra pieces.
They are probably three pitchers away plus a position player or two, and that is assuming CC stops his downward trend and Kuroda is rejuvenated after an offseason of rest. Betances could certainly be one of those out of the pen, I wonder what the latest on Mark Montgomery is? Jonathan Mayo seems to think he has a chance to help this year here:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/pipeline-inbox-jonathan-mayo-on-yankees-improving-farm-system-and-the-as-young-talent-addison-russell?ymd=20131108&content_id=63774932&vkey=news_mlb
The Betances who dominated in relief in AAA last year and the Montgomery who had Kimbrel-like K/9 numbers before some arm issues late last year would obviously help the pen a ton, Montgomery/Betances/Robertson in 7/8/9 could at their best (potentially) be a strength instead of a weakness, not many of those for NY currently.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/pipeline-inbox-jonathan-mayo-on-yankees-improving-farm-system-and-the-as-young-talent-addison-russell?ymd=20131108&content_id=63774932&vkey=news_mlb
The Betances who dominated in relief in AAA last year and the Montgomery who had Kimbrel-like K/9 numbers before some arm issues late last year would obviously help the pen a ton, Montgomery/Betances/Robertson in 7/8/9 could at their best (potentially) be a strength instead of a weakness, not many of those for NY currently.
Reading all the news on Tanaka and how the Yankees are basically relying in him, it kind of dawned on me that they made another huge mistake.
They should have traded Hughes, Joba, and even Cano last year. If they were going to half-ass their attempt to sign him, was the entire point of not trading him to save some face with fans? Really pisses me off. Same goes for Granderson.
They should have traded Hughes, Joba, and even Cano last year. If they were going to half-ass their attempt to sign him, was the entire point of not trading him to save some face with fans? Really pisses me off. Same goes for Granderson.
crow216 said:
They would not have got much Joba or Hughes. Granderson was not 100% coming off the DL, not sure they would have got much for him. Cano would have got them something, and for all we know they may have dangled him, but how much is a team going to give for a 3 months rental, especially when they no longer get draft pick compensation when he leaves. At least they got a draft pick for Cano, but they gave it away with Beltran.
I think they were intent on trying to make the playoffs in 2013 so they could have room to tank 2014 , but injuries kind of hindered them. They did make a run for it in August but the pitching gave out in the end. Maybe if they did not outperform their pythag so much and were so far out of it at the end of July they would have dealt him.
I am not sure the Yankees will make a serious run at Tanaka, and even if they did there is no guarantee they land him without a significant overpay. However, Tanaka is their only hope for 2014, and even that's no guarantee. I get nervous about 24 yo pitchers whose K/9 declines for 2 years in a row.
With a weak free agent market in 2015, even if they reset the tax rate I am not sure they can spend much for 2015 with Arod back on the books. Unless Pineda and Banuelos become the pitchers they were projected to become, the future is dark for the Yankees.
I started a thread here last June saying they should have traded and/or dumped Hughes and Joba, and I would have done my best to try to get something good from Detroit for Rivera if he was willing to be traded there. If Rivera is on DET, does BOS still win the ALCS? That trade would have been great all around, but it's all ancient history now.
Pretty much no way what they could get for Rivera outweighs ticket sales, right? If you make that argument about Ichiro (which I think is fair) it has to apply to Mo too. Eyeballing it they had pretty strong attendance in September. Plus the ire of their fanbase for trading him during his retirement tour would be a downside even if it's the right baseball move.
And I guess they could have dumped Joba and Hughes and saved money but what do they get? Not to mention that trying to get to the playoffs is always the mandate and with the extra wild card they had a chance to sneak in. They were 3.5 out of the second WC spot as late as August 23.
They have made a mess of things but it's a lot easier to rebuild when you are someone like Houston who doesn't care if they win or not (or when you get a get-out-of-jail-free card like the Sox 2012).
And I guess they could have dumped Joba and Hughes and saved money but what do they get? Not to mention that trying to get to the playoffs is always the mandate and with the extra wild card they had a chance to sneak in. They were 3.5 out of the second WC spot as late as August 23.
They have made a mess of things but it's a lot easier to rebuild when you are someone like Houston who doesn't care if they win or not (or when you get a get-out-of-jail-free card like the Sox 2012).
Forgive me for being late to the party, but do people really believe it was that big of a mistake drafting Cole 28th overall, out of high school?
Everyone knew he’d be incredibly tough to sign, but we all said the same thing about Josh Bell not too long ago, too. When you’re consistently picking late in the first round, you don’t get too many shots at elite talents. Cole qualified. It was risky but what did it really cost them? They received a compensation pick the following year (they selected Slade Heathcott, right after Boston selected Fuentes).
Would the Yankees have been better off having drafted Casey Kelly instead (drafted 30)? Jake Odorizzi (32)? Mike Montgomery (36)? Lance Lynn (39)? Probably. But of those guys, only Lynn has become established. Most of the other guys selected in the first round after pick 28 won’t have careers that the majority of fans will remember.
This isn’t so much a gripe about the Cole thing, as much as a complaint about how even intelligent fans view the draft. Folks tend to overestimate the likelihood of success of a draftee, year in and year out. Posters over at Sox Prospects do this all the time, complaining about how Boston was unable to select a player with a higher ceiling who wasn’t incredibly raw instead of Brian Johnson (if that player existed, he would have been drafted), or asking why Boston felt that Kolbrin Vitek was worthy of a first round pick, a few years back.
The level of talent varies from draft to draft and success rates aren’t so hot once you get passed the first ten picks. Cole was a gamble by New York. It didn’t work out, so they had to wait a year to draft and sign Slade Heathcott. Not a big deal.
Everyone knew he’d be incredibly tough to sign, but we all said the same thing about Josh Bell not too long ago, too. When you’re consistently picking late in the first round, you don’t get too many shots at elite talents. Cole qualified. It was risky but what did it really cost them? They received a compensation pick the following year (they selected Slade Heathcott, right after Boston selected Fuentes).
Would the Yankees have been better off having drafted Casey Kelly instead (drafted 30)? Jake Odorizzi (32)? Mike Montgomery (36)? Lance Lynn (39)? Probably. But of those guys, only Lynn has become established. Most of the other guys selected in the first round after pick 28 won’t have careers that the majority of fans will remember.
This isn’t so much a gripe about the Cole thing, as much as a complaint about how even intelligent fans view the draft. Folks tend to overestimate the likelihood of success of a draftee, year in and year out. Posters over at Sox Prospects do this all the time, complaining about how Boston was unable to select a player with a higher ceiling who wasn’t incredibly raw instead of Brian Johnson (if that player existed, he would have been drafted), or asking why Boston felt that Kolbrin Vitek was worthy of a first round pick, a few years back.
The level of talent varies from draft to draft and success rates aren’t so hot once you get passed the first ten picks. Cole was a gamble by New York. It didn’t work out, so they had to wait a year to draft and sign Slade Heathcott. Not a big deal.
The latest reports say Tanaka will be posted. If so, you can likely kiss $189M goodbye. IMHO the Yankees can't afford to be outbid for his services.
Brickowski said:
I read somewhere that Tanaka expressed a preference for the West Coast. Doesn't mean the Yankees can not persuade him but I am not convinced their heart is in a significant overpay. I expect them to make an offer just good enough to be turned down, like with Cano, so they can tell their fans they tried. Especially if Arod gets suspended for most of the year and 189 is still in reach. Not that I agree with this.
The new posting rules kind of defeated the main advantage of going after Tanaka, which was a lower AAV with most of the cost going to a untaxable posting fee and no competition once they outbid the other teams on the posting fee. Now he is just another free agent really, and a rookie at that, who might approach or even exceed 20 million AAV and cost an additional 10 million in tax and the loss of 15 million in rebates. I have argued before they have the money to spend this and the additional revenues a competitive team will bring should offset the cost, but in recent weeks I have lost confidence in their will to go past 189
I look forward to the next 30 days or so, although I suspect Tanaka might not need that long to find a deal and might be eager to find a new home after the long delay in posting. Maybe the Yankees will surprise me (or the Red Sox).
billy ashley said:
The way I see it, the issue isn't with drafting Cole - it's with not signing him. For reasons I will never understand - and as a Red Sox fan, it is fortunate it happened this way - the MFYs have been content in overspending by multi-millions on aging FAs but were content to keep their draft spending in check. They one place they really could have leveraged their financial advantages was to draft every hard-to-sign prospect and throw money at them - particularly when it became apparent to everyone that a draft salary cap was imminent. But instead - and perhaps this was to appease the Commissioner's office in some way - the MFYs were content to be high spenders but never wanted to be the highest.
For example, while the Red Sox were spending 10,664,400 and 10,978,700 in 2010 and 2011 (respectively), the MFYs were content to spend 6,652,500, and 6,324,500. http://mldraft.com/blog/mlb-draft-spending-in-2011/. I never understood this but was grateful they decided to restrain themselves.
That is all true, but in the specific case of Cole, it seems like they did their best, at least as far as I can tell. I linked this already above, but again, this is the best piece I found on the specifics:
"Oppenheimer confirmed the team was prepared to offer Cole a far-above-slot $4M bonus, but they wouldn’t even listen to the offer."
http://riveraveblues.com/2013/05/five-years-later-the-2008-draft-87337/
"Oppenheimer confirmed the team was prepared to offer Cole a far-above-slot $4M bonus, but they wouldn’t even listen to the offer."
http://riveraveblues.com/2013/05/five-years-later-the-2008-draft-87337/
Not to turn this into the Gerrit Cole thread but I read this piece - http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/04/sports/baseball/04pitcher.html?_r=0&adxnnl=1&pagewanted=2&adxnnlx=1388276179-y86sSArHU2b5kflvO+fhXA - to suggest that if the MFYs really wanted to sign him, there was a path (albeit very very expensive) to do so.
But that's not my point. My point is that if I was Brian Cashman, I would have been #1 (or maybe in the top 3 to keep up appearances) in draft spending every year, instead of being in the top 15. It seems like such a no-brainer, it's kind of unfathomable why they didn't do it.
But that's not my point. My point is that if I was Brian Cashman, I would have been #1 (or maybe in the top 3 to keep up appearances) in draft spending every year, instead of being in the top 15. It seems like such a no-brainer, it's kind of unfathomable why they didn't do it.
I thought the Yankees were historically pretty big spenders on the amateur international market, which is now one less tool available due to the new CBA.
[They were 2nd in 2010 @ $5.27M (Red Sox 19th), but...
They were 11th in 2011 @ $2.93M (Red Sox 9th)]
Can't find earlier stats.
[They were 2nd in 2010 @ $5.27M (Red Sox 19th), but...
They were 11th in 2011 @ $2.93M (Red Sox 9th)]
Can't find earlier stats.
If true, $189 is out the window for good.
"The New York Yankees are reportedly the frontrunner to get free agent hurler Ubaldo Jimenez, regardless of whether or not they win the bidding war for Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, a source close to the situation reported earlier this week."
"The New York Yankees are reportedly the frontrunner to get free agent hurler Ubaldo Jimenez, regardless of whether or not they win the bidding war for Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, a source close to the situation reported earlier this week."
ivanvamp said:
Because they didn't want to sign a 10-year deal. Even if they do decide to go over the $189, I don't think they were ever going to give Cano the length of contract he wanted.
Again, they did want Cano. Just not for years 8-10 when chances are he won't be playing 2B and may not be worth his paycheck.ivanvamp said:
EvilEmpire said:
And again, it was still the wrong decision because he'll be worth so much more for the first half of the contract. An extra three years for Cano would've have zero impact on their ability to spend in 2021 through 2023.
It's still really odd that Cano is the guy the team and the fans chose to all of the sudden become fiscally responsible about.
Not half as odd as a Red Sox fan arguing that an expensive 10 year long contract for a 31 year old player is a good baseball move. The Yankees got burned by the stupid ARod contract and can look at other deals like Pujols' and didn't want to go so far down that path.glennhoffmania said:
Who knows what the roster looks like in 2021-2023?
Reverend said:
Even better, from the article, "According to Boston Herald baseball insider Nick Cafardo..."
EvilEmpire said:
I don't think a 10 year deal for Cano *is* a good baseball move. But since when has that ever stopped the Yankees from spending money? I think we all may have believed them when they let Cano walk and they said they were staying under $189 million. But with the Ubaldo story (if it's even half-true), if it's got legs, then it means that the Yankees may truly not care about blowing right by the $189 million mark, and if they're going to do that, then letting Cano walk seems to make very little sense. He was by FAR their best player, and would be moving forward for probably the next 4-5 years.
What does the $189 million threshold have to do with letting Cano walk? I think the 7 years they offered at a higher AAV than Seattle is a pretty good indicator that the luxury tax had nothing to do with the decision to not offer more. If the Yankees were good with that luxury tax hit for the next 7 years, then 3 more probably wouldn't be an issue...if they thought Cano would be one of the best players in the game in years 8-10. But they don't. The Yankees have said they are still willing to spend if it addresses an area of need, and they are. That still doesn't mean that they want to take on too much risk of having a lot of payroll tied up in unproductive players.ivanvamp said:
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