Starting Rotation '21

Cesar Crespo

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ERod's last 4: 2.38 era, 22.2 ip, 4bb/27k. .926 WHIP. Hitters slashing .200/.236/.318 on a .255 BAbip.

Good to see.
 

shaggydog2000

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ERod's last 4: 2.38 era, 22.2 ip, 4bb/27k. .926 WHIP. Hitters slashing .200/.236/.318 on a .255 BAbip.

Good to see.
He had a really bad run from 5/18-6/15 where he had a 9.11 ERA, but his FIP and xFIP were still good at 3.75 and 3.41. His BABIP was .450 over that stretch. Is that luck? I find it less likely if it's a month long and consistently that bad, but maybe.

Since then, he's been great as you've noted. And he had a 4.15 ERA and 3.55 FIP across his first 7 games. He started out decently well. If that bad stretch wasn't just bad luck and something was wrong, he looks to be past it. I'm optimistic about the rest of his season.
 

Cesar Crespo

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He had a really bad run from 5/18-6/15 where he had a 9.11 ERA, but his FIP and xFIP were still good at 3.75 and 3.41. His BABIP was .450 over that stretch. Is that luck? I find it less likely if it's a month long and consistently that bad, but maybe.

Since then, he's been great as you've noted. And he had a 4.15 ERA and 3.55 FIP across his first 7 games. He started out decently well. If that bad stretch wasn't just bad luck and something was wrong, he looks to be past it. I'm optimistic about the rest of his season.
His FIP for the year is 3.52 (Which would be a career best) so I'm guessing there is some bad luck involved. I doubt it was all bad luck though. Is it possible he was tipping again? The only numbers that really stick out over year's past is the ISO against. That has been trending down lately and isn't that out of line with his career rate. This year it's .177. Career it's .155.

The BAbip too. It's .355 for the year. For his career it's .307. Whether it's noise or not, his BAbip has gotten worse every single year since 2016. It's a weird year. Maybe it'll keep his price down and the Sox can sign him up on the cheap.
 

Monbonthbump

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Anyone having a true migraine attack is not able to function. Has he had them in the past? I don't think there is any correlation between migraines and COVID.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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ERod's last 4: 2.38 era, 22.2 ip, 4bb/27k. .926 WHIP. Hitters slashing .200/.236/.318 on a .255 BAbip.

Good to see.
Hey.... uh.... don't know if it's been discussed anywhere other than a game thread, which I try to avoid after the game actually starts, but WTF is with ERod? He seemed to be rounding back into decent shape prior to his previous start and then had that "injury" that made him leave the game but Cora said he was fine. Then last night was just horrifying.
Even earlier in the season when he was struggling it seemed due to some bad BABiP luck. Any commentary or insight into his outing last night and then what he could be moving forward? I really like him but have always been frustrated by his inability to become consistently the pitcher that he could be. Injuries happen but he has always seemed unfocused at times too.
 
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He could still be struggling with post-Covid health issues, who knows. Health aside, Erod is who he is at this point. Someone whom the Sox hoped could be a #2 or #3 starter but in reality is a backend/fringe starter.
 

mfried

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Hey.... uh.... don't know if it's been discussed anywhere other than a game thread, which I try to avoid after the game actually starts, but WTF is with ERod? He seemed to be rounding back into decent shape prior to his previous start and then had that "injury" that made him leave the game but Cora said he was fine. Then last night was just horrifying.
Even earlier in the season when he was struggling it seemed due to some bad BABiP luck. Any commentary or insight into his outing last night and then what he could be moving forward? I really like him but have always been frustrated by his inability to become consistently the pitcher that he could be. Injuries happen but he has always seemed unfocused at times too.
He chooses to throw his fastball at 92-93 rather than 94-95, presumably for reasons of endurance. That means he’s threading a needle with location, and he’s often scared to throw inside to RH batters. He can’t limit himself to arm-side location, or he won’t have consistent success.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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He chooses to throw his fastball at 92-93 rather than 94-95, presumably for reasons of endurance. That means he’s threading a needle with location, and he’s often scared to throw inside to RH batters. He can’t limit himself to arm-side location, or he won’t have consistent success.
Not a good general outlook for him going forward. I'm pretty bummed about where he's landed after his very promising 2019.... I still haven't read anything about him feeling weak or tired though... or about any other injury. He just doesn't seem like his energy is focused (but obviously IANAPsychologist).
 

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ookami7m

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He could still be struggling with post-Covid health issues, who knows. Health aside, Erod is who he is at this point. Someone whom the Sox hoped could be a #2 or #3 starter but in reality is a backend/fringe starter.
You sir must be watching a different E-Rod than I am. His 2018 and 19 seasons were much more #2/3 than fringe starter. Last year was lost due to Covid and there's no telling how much of this years struggles may be related to that. I'd still put Erod ahead of Pivetta/Richardson/Houck/Perez if I needed to win a game today.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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You sir must be watching a different E-Rod than I am. His 2018 and 19 seasons were much more #2/3 than fringe starter. Last year was lost due to Covid and there's no telling how much of this years struggles may be related to that. I'd still put Erod ahead of Pivetta/Richardson/Houck/Perez if I needed to win a game today.
While I would generally agree with you... I'll take Houck RIGHT NOW, over ERod, and possibly Pivetta or Perez. I'm just not sure if ERod is actually healthy. Or at best I'd have to be ready to Houck him out of there at the earliest sign of trouble and I wouldn't worry if I was panicking
 

BaseballJones

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I think Houck is excellent. Of course he could have a bad game in the playoffs, but he's nasty. If Sale is 90% of CHRIS SALE, then I'd feel pretty good going into a playoff series with Sale, Eovaldi, and Houck, with Pivetta or ERod or even Perez as the fourth guy.
 

cantor44

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I think Houck is excellent. Of course he could have a bad game in the playoffs, but he's nasty. If Sale is 90% of CHRIS SALE, then I'd feel pretty good going into a playoff series with Sale, Eovaldi, and Houck, with Pivetta or ERod or even Perez as the fourth guy.
Houck's stuff is goddamn electric. Curious to me why his minor league stats are only decent and not dominant ... feel like there's gotta be some achilles heal we haven't seen yet ...
 

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Houck's stuff is goddamn electric. Curious to me why his minor league stats are only decent and not dominant ... feel like there's gotta be some achilles heal we haven't seen yet ...
My understanding is he's been working on stuff in the minors, like adding a viable third pitch to go with his fastball and slider. I get the impression that when he's on a big league mound, he's just cutting loose and going with his strengths more. Maybe that catches up with him at some point, but I also think being in a big league ballpark can flip a switch for some guys. He may thrive in the bigger spotlight.
 

Apisith

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He’s electric first time through the order, which might be okay in the playoffs as Cora is typically aggressive with bullpen use. Glasnow is also a two-pitch pitcher but of course the fastball velocity is 100mph instead of 94mph. Hopefully he makes progress with his splitter if he’s going to be effective against lefties. Or maybe learn the change up that Whitlock learnt this year.
 

BaseballJones

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Both Houck and Whitlock have outstanding stuff. Plus fastballs, dynamic sliders, and especially for Whitlock, a devastating change.

They have bright futures but they are also performing at a high level now. I have a ton of confidence in both of them. Not that my confidence level matters a hill of beans, but still.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I have little to no faith in Richards or Perez.... I still think Pivetta can be a mid rotation guy going forward.
As for the entire complete 5 man rotation? I'm in somewhat agreement that the problems are too big right now and the offense too dinged up to have sold major pieces of the farm to put a band-aid on. If the team can continue to win and not falter it's because they're somehow still finding some magic.
Sale has to return to at least "80%" Sale.
Eovaldi has to continue to be healthy.
ERod has to get better (whatever the problem is)
Houck has to be able to look as good as he has.
Lots of "ifs" and I won't be surprised to find the team stumble into 4th place by the end of the season.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Amazing what a 2-game losing streak does to this board. Yep, ERod had a migraine and then a bad start. So naturally he's toast and will be shut down imminently or should be. We can't win if Richards or Perez starts. No hope. Why oh why didn't Bloom get Scherzer and maybe Freddie Freeman to play 1st?

Look, since the ASB when the Sox were 19 games above .500 and in 1st by 1.5 games and tied with the Astros for the best record in the AL they've gone a catastrophic 8-6 where all 14 games were against AL East competitors with >.500 records. Meanwhile the Rays have gone 9-5, the Yankees 8-5 and the Jays 7-6. Of the other decent teams in the AL only the Astros (9-4) have outperformed the Sox by as much as 1.5 games. The ChiSox have gone 7-8, Indians 5-8, A's 7-6, Angels 6-8 and M's 8-5. So the Sox have lost 1 game off its division lead and fallen 1 1/2 off the pace to get the top seed going into the playoffs.

As for that awful pitching staff here are the Red Sox records for games in which each pitcher starts as well as their average game score and the Sox' record in games where the offense scored 4 or more runs:

Starter
Sox Record
AGS
Record with 4+ RS
Eovaldi​
11-9​
54.4​
8-1​
Rodriguez​
13-7​
47.8​
12-2​
Richards​
11-9​
44.8​
10-1​
Pivetta​
14-6​
51.7​
12-1​
Perez​
12-9​
47.2​
12-2​
Houck​
2-2​
53.8​
2-0​


So I don't know about you guys but I think that a staff that has given the team a 56-7 record in games when the offense has scored 4 or more runs is good enough. The Sox offense has reached that threshold in 60% of the games its played and Bloom has added a bat that should increase that percentage going forward. We're also due to see a new starting pitcher that I've heard has a pretty nasty fastball-slider combo. I, for one, am optimistic.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Amazing what a 2-game losing streak does to this board. Yep, ERod had a migraine and then a bad start. So naturally he's toast and will be shut down imminently or should be. We can't win if Richards or Perez starts. No hope. Why oh why didn't Bloom get Scherzer and maybe Freddie Freeman to play 1st?

Look, since the ASB when the Sox were 19 games above .500 and in 1st by 1.5 games and tied with the Astros for the best record in the AL they've gone a catastrophic 8-6 where all 14 games were against AL East competitors with >.500 records. Meanwhile the Rays have gone 9-5, the Yankees 8-5 and the Jays 7-6. Of the other decent teams in the AL only the Astros (9-4) have outperformed the Sox by as much as 1.5 games. The ChiSox have gone 7-8, Indians 5-8, A's 7-6, Angels 6-8 and M's 8-5. So the Sox have lost 1 game off its division lead and fallen 1 1/2 off the pace to get the top seed going into the playoffs.

As for that awful pitching staff here are the Red Sox records for games in which each pitcher starts as well as their average game score and the Sox' record in games where the offense scored 4 or more runs:

Starter
Sox Record
AGS
Record with 4+ RS
Eovaldi​
11-9​
54.4​
8-1​
Rodriguez​
13-7​
47.8​
12-2​
Richards​
11-9​
44.8​
10-1​
Pivetta​
14-6​
51.7​
12-1​
Perez​
12-9​
47.2​
12-2​
Houck​
2-2​
53.8​
2-0​


So I don't know about you guys but I think that a staff that has given the team a 56-7 record in games when the offense has scored 4 or more runs is good enough. The Sox offense has reached that threshold in 60% of the games its played and Bloom has added a bat that should increase that percentage going forward. We're also due to see a new starting pitcher that I've heard has a pretty nasty fastball-slider combo. I, for one, am optimistic.
While I guess you are responding directly to my post in which I said I would not be surprised to find the sox in fourth place at the end of the season. I also still wouldn’t be surprised if they stayed in first place and advance their lead the other way too. Perhaps I should have said that in my post. All I was trying to say is that with the recent pitching there are I think more “what if” Situation with them then with their direct competitors. But at the same time that was the same situation going into the season and here they are in first place so to me they are still surprising.
 

cantor44

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[/TABLE]

So I don't know about you guys but I think that a staff that has given the team a 56-7 record in games when the offense has scored 4 or more runs is good enough. The Sox offense has reached that threshold in 60% of the games its played and Bloom has added a bat that should increase that percentage going forward. We're also due to see a new starting pitcher that I've heard has a pretty nasty fastball-slider combo. I, for one, am optimistic.
[/QUOTE]

But I think this is because the bullpen has been excellent and Cora has had a quick hook all year for the starters. That seems unsustainable, and a bit of bullpen fraying has already been evident. They need their starters to go deeper into games down the stretch run to keep the pen from being over taxed. ALSO, once in the post season, the competition improves, obviously, and the quality of starting pitching we've seen (sans Eovaldi) won't cut it ...Can't quickly be down 4 runs by the third ..Yes, the team will rely MORE on the pen in the post season ... but all the more reason to measure their use now.
 

uk_sox_fan

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But I think this is because the bullpen has been excellent and Cora has had a quick hook all year for the starters. That seems unsustainable, and a bit of bullpen fraying has already been evident. They need their starters to go deeper into games down the stretch run to keep the pen from being over taxed. ALSO, once in the post season, the competition improves, obviously, and the quality of starting pitching we've seen (sans Eovaldi) won't cut it ...Can't quickly be down 4 runs by the third ..Yes, the team will rely MORE on the pen in the post season ... but all the more reason to measure their use now.
The Sox's starters are 5th in the AL in IP/start (5.16 IP/gm). 4th place Yankees starters have averaged 1 more out every 5 games. Yes, the Astros (and A's) have been dominant in that category but their superiority to the Red Sox in that regard is still only 1 out per game (0.35 IP/gm). That doesn't smack off burning out the BP to me.

As for how they hold up against stronger competition the Sox are 32-2 when scoring 4+ runs against teams with .500 or better record (and 5-23 when scoring 3 runs or less).

Team opp rec vs all others besides BOS pct HTH rec (Sox-opp) rec when Sox 0-3 run scored rec when Sox 4+ rs
NYY 51-28 0.646 10-3 0-3 10-0
HOU 59-38 0.608 2-5 0-5 2-0
TBR 59-38 0.608 4-3 0-3 4-0
CHW 59-41 0.590 2-2 0-2 2-0
OAK 56-43 0.566 3-3 2-2 1-1
TOR 47-39 0.547 9-6 1-5 8-1
NYM 54-46 0.540 2-0 2-0 -
SEA 54-46 0.540 2-2 0-2 2-0
ATL 50-50 0.500 3-1 0-1 3-0


My point wasn't that the bullpen isn't a big part of the team's winning success - it obviously is. My point is that the current starters, flawed as they may be, haven't been costing Boston many games. They key seems to be whether the offense can score 4 or more runs. They've done so quite consistently (60% of the time) and when they do the Sox usually win.
 

cantor44

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The Sox's starters are 5th in the AL in IP/start (5.16 IP/gm). 4th place Yankees starters have averaged 1 more out every 5 games. Yes, the Astros (and A's) have been dominant in that category but their superiority to the Red Sox in that regard is still only 1 out per game (0.35 IP/gm). That doesn't smack off burning out the BP to me.

As for how they hold up against stronger competition the Sox are 32-2 when scoring 4+ runs against teams with .500 or better record (and 5-23 when scoring 3 runs or less).

Team opp rec vs all others besides BOS pct HTH rec (Sox-opp) rec when Sox 0-3 run scored rec when Sox 4+ rs
NYY 51-28 0.646 10-3 0-3 10-0
HOU 59-38 0.608 2-5 0-5 2-0
TBR 59-38 0.608 4-3 0-3 4-0
CHW 59-41 0.590 2-2 0-2 2-0
OAK 56-43 0.566 3-3 2-2 1-1
TOR 47-39 0.547 9-6 1-5 8-1
NYM 54-46 0.540 2-0 2-0 -
SEA 54-46 0.540 2-2 0-2 2-0
ATL 50-50 0.500 3-1 0-1 3-0


My point wasn't that the bullpen isn't a big part of the team's winning success - it obviously is. My point is that the current starters, flawed as they may be, haven't been costing Boston many games. They key seems to be whether the offense can score 4 or more runs. They've done so quite consistently (60% of the time) and when they do the Sox usually win.
these are good stats and enlightening ... thanks for this ... though we all have seen the starting pitching really fray the last two months, serious regression to mean and ERod obviously dealing with stuff ...
 

JimD

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I think some folks are too quick to write off Pivetta - he has shown some flashes of real promise. If he can even just minimize the poor outings, he could lock down the #4 rotation slot at reasonable money for the next few years.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Seabold was filthy last night. Do we see him in September?

Worth noting that rosters no longer expand significantly in September. They get two extra roster spots after September 1 rather than expanding to the full 40-man roster. Assuming everyone is generally healthy, and the race is tight, I don't expect too much experimentation with prospects like Seabold.
 

A Bad Man

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Worth noting that rosters no longer expand significantly in September. They get two extra roster spots after September 1 rather than expanding to the full 40-man roster. Assuming everyone is generally healthy, and the race is tight, I don't expect too much experimentation with prospects like Seabold.
Yes, thank you, I should have made that clear. Do we see him on the 28-man? Given where he’s at in his development, if he shows like this for a few more starts, I think he’ll be with the team.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Seabold was filthy last night. Do we see him in September?
He has 20 innings under his belt this season, 14 1/3 at AAA level

His innings last night were about as good as EdRo's were.

I'm not sure anyone is prepared to project Connor Seabold in the major leagues based on that resume. His prior outing in AAA was 5 innings, 8 hits, and 4 ER.
 

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He has 20 innings under his belt this season, 14 1/3 at AAA level

His innings last night were about as good as EdRo's were.

I'm not sure anyone is prepared to project Connor Seabold in the major leagues based on that resume. His prior outing in AAA was 5 innings, 8 hits, and 4 ER.
I could have used you in the Minor League thread last night!

I'm hopeful that Seabold is in our future. But he has to have a GREAT August to factor into this season.
 

A Bad Man

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My mistake for not reading the Minor League thread; I see now there was some convo about Seabold's start last night.

FWIW, Cora had the following to say about Seabold (and others) today:

The health of those kids is very important to us. We've been healthy throughout the season. Those kids were hurt. So now, Tanner is healthy, Seabold is healthy, Brasier is trending in the right direction. That's always good. We're here for August and September. You guys see it. Everybody is playing good baseball. We're gonna need, at one point, probably all of these guys to make a difference up here. It's good to see him healthy and pitching the way he did...
Certainly reading the tea leaves a bit here, but it seems that Seabold is on Cora's mind as a potential option down the stretch.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I know I've said it once, maybe twice... if we see any pitchers debut from the farm, it's Kaleb Ort and/or Kutter Crawford. Both would have to be added to the 40 so maybe not even them.

Crawford made his second AAA start on 8/3. 5.0 ip, 1 hit, 1r/1er, 3bb/9k, 0 HRA. The 3 BB was a season high. 87 pitches, 19 whiffs.

Up to 57.1 ip for the year, 9bb/78k. 36.3% K rate,

I spend an unhealthy amount of time on analyzing the Sox farm system in general, but I especially love the guys who don't get much prospect hype but who should at least reach the major leagues. A lot of times, people fall in love with the rankings while scouting reports get lazy and don't evolve. Those scouting reports still impact the rankings, and those rankings impact how we see prospects because there is so minimal information out there. This is a long winded way of saying Kutter Crawford is a different pitcher after his TJ surgery. I don't know if he's going to have a successful major league career, but he's most likely going to have one.

If he puts up 2 more good starts in AAA, it becomes interesting. It's just funny how people completely overlook him because of his pedigree. He probably would have missed all of 2020 but there wasn't a 2020 to miss.

The TJS may also be reason why they decide not to call him up to MLB. He may need to be added on the 40 for next season, too, but I'm not entirely sure.
 

grimshaw

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I'm going to disagree on Seabold. I think he'll be the next new face up and has the best (non-Sale) chance at helping the team down the stretch. He's their #6 prospect, and is already 25. Bloom clearly had him targeted last season and I don't think he's going to waste another season without seeing him up.

Crawford's had a nice mini-run but he only has 11 innings in Worcester. Guys like Ort and him have a better shot at slipping through now. Especially with Ort going to be 30. He's very likely not getting grabbed in a Rule 5. Not every guy having a nice season in AAA can be protected.

Cora doesn't just throw around quotes like that either.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm going to disagree on Seabold. I think he'll be the next new face up and has the best (non-Sale) chance at helping the team down the stretch. He's their #6 prospect, and is already 25. Bloom clearly had him targeted last season and I don't think he's going to waste another season without seeing him up.

Crawford wasn't even in their top 60 before last month. He's had a nice mini-run but he only has 11 innings in Worcester. Guys like Ort and him have a better shot at slipping through now. Especially with Ort going to be 30. He's very likely not getting grabbed in a Rule 5. Not every guy having a nice season in AAA can be protected.

Cora doesn't just throw around quotes like that either.
It's possible, but if not Seabold, who? Isn't it Crawford?

And I'm sure most people disagree with me about Crawford.
 

grimshaw

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It's possible, but if not Seabold, who? Isn't it Crawford?

And I'm sure most people disagree with me about Crawford.
I follow Crawford too and liked him before TJ when their system was worse and root for him now. I just think it's the unfortunate numbers game of them having a lot of interesting depth. I'm hoping he's off team's radars.

They can IL any marginal player to the 60 day DL before the end of the season to make room, right?
 
Last edited:

Lose Remerswaal

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I'm going to disagree on Seabold. I think he'll be the next new face up and has the best (non-Sale) chance at helping the team down the stretch. He's their #6 prospect, and is already 25. Bloom clearly had him targeted last season and I don't think he's going to waste another season without seeing him up.

Crawford's had a nice mini-run but he only has 11 innings in Worcester. Guys like Ort and him have a better shot at slipping through now. Especially with Ort going to be 30. He's very likely not getting grabbed in a Rule 5. Not every guy having a nice season in AAA can be protected.

Cora doesn't just throw around quotes like that either.
Crawford has more innings in AAA than SeaboLDS does
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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They can IL any marginal player to the 60 day DL before the end of the season to make room, right?
Not if they're healthy they can't. Players on that IL accrue major league service time, which is why Mata is out for the year with Tommy John and is not on the 60-day IL. They don't want to start his service time clock until he's contributing to the big club.

If guys like Andriese or Santana are still injured in a month, they could be moved to the 60-day IL. But they might as well DFA them at that stage. Their time in Boston would be done anyway.
 

grimshaw

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Seabold was listed as having 10.1 innings this AM. now he shows 14.1

the point is the same. Both are extremely small sample sizes.
Right, and one guy is an actual prospect who went 6. If they think he can help, I think he has an edge on the rest of the guys based on his stuff.
If it's Crawford, good for him. We'll see in a month.
 

cantor44

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Right, and one guy is an actual prospect who went 6. If they think he can help, I think he has an edge on the rest of the guys based on his stuff.
If it's Crawford, good for him. We'll see in a month.
Remember they can only add two players. One will be Wong, probably. So, one pitcher ...
 

Farty Barrett

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Remember they can only add two players. One will be Wong, probably. So, one pitcher ...
Wouldn’t Schwarber’s history behind the plate allow for the Sox to settle on two September catchers?
And I would think he’d take Dalbec’s spot with Marwin as the backup 1B.