Starting pitching talent in the low minors

[Paradigm]

With Ryan Dempster unavailable this season, that means that Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo, and Allen Webster will be asked to do even more this year. I think it's reasonable to expect all three to see some major league action this year.
 
Henry Owens probably needs another full season in the minors this year. He could come up in late September, but based on his age and development I think he ends the season in Triple-A and positions himself for a big major league role in 2015.
 
It's got me thinking about the pitchers behind Ranaudo, Webster, Barnes, and Owens. There's some really intriguing talent there -- obviously, Trey Ball's draft profile positions him at the front of the list, but Brian Johnson, Jamie Callahan, and Teddy Stankiewicz all have really intriguing potential. There are other pitchers (Simon Mercedes) that I know nothing about, but every year, on every team, less heralded, further away players break out and end the season at the top of their teams respective prospect lists.
 
Put the Triple-A crew aside for a minute. If you put your forecasting hat on, who do you think ends the season behind Owens as the #2 pitching prospect in the system? And if you choose Trey Ball, give us a second name as well. 

 

[TheGoldenGreek33]

I think you have the right names--Ball, Callahan, Johnson would be my order...
 
One guy I like to burst onto the scene, though, is Joe Gunkel. He doesn't have overpowering stuff -- was 90-92 at the 2012 D2 WS, which he was MVP of, but commanded it extremely well to both sides of the plate and paired it well with a changeup that absolutely nobody could pick up. Big dude -- 6-6, 230. Dominated NYPL hitters last season, which doesn't say much, and will get his first taste of full-season ball this year. Just love the pitchability, his competitiveness, deception, frame, etc -- high floor type dude with a BOTR ceiling. 

 

[Granite Sox]

Sox Prospects and Keith Law were discussing the team's enthusiasm for Stankiewicz. I'd put him in that next group as well. #2 behind Ball, and slightly ahead of Callahan and Johnson.

 

[Troy O'Lovely]

In terms of just people poised to garnish some love and attention from the media, my dark horse pick is going to be Ty Buttrey.  He's one of those guys who gets the dreaded 'projectable' attached to him but from a couple of people who have seen him pitch they say he has the frame and stuff to be a pretty good pitcher.  With a good year he could finish the year in Portland, if he does that I don't know how many true prospects there would be to compete with the honor for him, actually (I'm going to just ignore Ball for the purposes of this argument).
Also, I remember a couple of people saying good things about Corey Littrell after his placement last year.  The SoxProspects report says ominously that his velocity dipped a lot after his sophomore year in college, but he seemed to have a good year last year so maybe it's back, or maybe he doesn't really need it (has 3 off-speeds pitches already in his arsenal, supposedly).

 

[TheGoldenGreek33]

With a good year he could finish the year in Portland, if he does that I don't know how many true prospects there would be to compete with the honor for him, actually (I'm going to just ignore Ball for the purposes of this argument).

 
Buttrey hasn't thrown a pitch above rookie league. With a really good year, he might get a cup of coffee in Salem.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
Buttrey hasn't thrown a pitch above rookie league. With a really good year, he might get a cup of coffee in Salem.

 
I think he's got a shot to turn some head's, though.  Especially if he can recapture his velocity.  Even with an awful k/9 last year, he managed some fairly impressive results.  If nothing else, he's kind of fascinating right now.

 

[OttoC]

Buttrey throws a knuckle-curve, which I suspect many of the players that he faced in the GCL and NYPL have not seen.

 

[Detts]

With Ryan Dempster unavailable this season, that means that Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo, and Allen Webster will be asked to do even more this year. I think it's reasonable to expect all three to see some major league action this year.
 
Henry Owens probably needs another full season in the minors this year. He could come up in late September, but based on his age and development I think he ends the season in Triple-A and positions himself for a big major league role in 2015.
 
It's got me thinking about the pitchers behind Ranaudo, Webster, Barnes, and Owens. There's some really intriguing talent there -- obviously, Trey Ball's draft profile positions him at the front of the list, but Brian Johnson, Jamie Callahan, and Teddy Stankiewicz all have really intriguing potential. There are other pitchers (Simon Mercedes) that I know nothing about, but every year, on every team, less heralded, further away players break out and end the season at the top of their teams respective prospect lists.
 
Put the Triple-A crew aside for a minute. If you put your forecasting hat on, who do you think ends the season behind Owens as the #2 pitching prospect in the system? And if you choose Trey Ball, give us a second name as well. 
 
 
  
 

 
If/when he develops consistent fastball command, he will be in the majors.  

 

[someoneanywhere]

 
Buttrey hasn't thrown a pitch above rookie league. With a really good year, he might get a cup of coffee in Salem.

To me this is a critical thing to bear on mind. Even with a good year, as GG says, he is not going to Portland. Player development involves a lot of things -- and sometimes the least of them is results. Moving from short-season ball to A-ball will be a challenge on and off the field; on the field, the goal is not merely mechanical and physical development but exposure to more innings of greater stress (read: competition). If he ends the year in Salem he will have turned the heads he needs to turn; but he might do that anyway by spending all year in Greenville. Movement into AA would be counter-productive. 

 

[Paradigm]

the goal is not merely mechanical and physical development but exposure to more innings of greater stress (read: competition). 

 
At last year's Saberseminar, an attendee from Toronto asked John Farrell a really interesting question. Paraphrasing, he asked if the reason why Toronto's young pitchers, e.g. Drew Hutchison, were getting injured so frequently, we because they were rushed to the majors and pitched in higher-stress situations. I believe Farrell responded affirmatively, noting that some of those guys came up to the big leagues and were hitting higher velocities on the radar gun, which would indicate that they were overthrowing and giving into the pressure, causing more physical strain. So yes, you have to bring guys along methodically. Let them experience full-season ball. The move them into more advanced competition, maybe a postseason run, put them against top prospects, maybe some quad-a types who know how to hit a little bit. 

 

[Drek717]

I think both Kukuk and McGrath have some nice potential to them.  High K/9 lefties with a lot of room to grow into their frames and add velocity.  It'll be interesting to see if either of them has what it takes to make the jump Owens made in 2013 on his way out of the low minors.