Braves were reportedly interested in JBJ last Feb......of course they could have been just looking at him as a buy low candidate.
http://www.overthemonster.com/2015/2/17/8051711/red-sox-trade-rumors-jackie-bradley-jr-braves
Start, Sit, Trade: Play Along with Dave
- Thread starter nothumb
- Start date
http://www.overthemonster.com/2015/2/17/8051711/red-sox-trade-rumors-jackie-bradley-jr-braves
All depends on what Atlanta is looking for. If they are willing to close the deal for say Owens Johnson and one or two other pieces then you highly consider that. You still add a guy like Price but then you have a rotation that stacks up with anyone. I don't necessarily think it's realistic however I could see an outside chance of a deal like this being done considering the roster crunch coming up for the 40 man.
Remember that you're trading 5 years of control for 3 with the hope that the guy you're acquiring has more value than what you give up. If you're a contender there are worse deals that you can make.
After the Price deal, if Opening Day was tomorrow the roster would look something like this:
Starting lineup:
Betts rf
Pedroia 2b
Ortiz dh
Ramirez 1b
Sandoval 3b
Bogaerts ss
Bradley cf
Castillo lf
Swihart c
Bench: Young, Holt, Shaw, Hanigan
Rotation: Price, Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, Rodriguez
Bullpen: Kimbrel, Uehara, Tazawa, Ross, Layne, Kelly, Barnes
Pitching depth: Owens, Wright, Workman, Johnson, N. Ramirez, Aro, Hembree, Escobar, Light
Is that enough? Is DD done?
Starting lineup:
Betts rf
Pedroia 2b
Ortiz dh
Ramirez 1b
Sandoval 3b
Bogaerts ss
Bradley cf
Castillo lf
Swihart c
Bench: Young, Holt, Shaw, Hanigan
Rotation: Price, Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, Rodriguez
Bullpen: Kimbrel, Uehara, Tazawa, Ross, Layne, Kelly, Barnes
Pitching depth: Owens, Wright, Workman, Johnson, N. Ramirez, Aro, Hembree, Escobar, Light
Is that enough? Is DD done?
The only realistic "upgrades" left would be to replace Ramirez/Sandoval with a better option. The team could also lower the budget by trading Porcello and promoting Owens, with Wright/Workman as the starting options. Wright's out of options though, so he'd have to be in the BP. We could reach Wright pretty quickly if Buchholz and another SP goes on the DL.
However, Ramirez, Sandoval, and Porcello would be selling low at this point.
I still think the answer to that is no. Can't see DD dropping $250m on pitching and then making a prioritized choice to stand pat on a lineup filled with so many major question marks (regardless what he's saying right now and before having secured our #1 priority). Simply too much of dice rolling factor involved in going that route.
Nothing may ultimately come out of it, but a serious attempt to upgrade somewhere/somehow will be made.
Yes, for now. He'll likely look for another cheap veteran arm or two to compete for a BP spot.
Also, I'll be really annoyed if X is batting below Sandoval in the line-up.
I would be disappointed if he were done. This team is great on paper but still has significant bust potential. So I could see him still working the phones to see if he can upgrade here or there, and also seeing if someone decides they NEED RH Power and ask about Ramirez, etc.
Though he is not the type to do this, I also wouldn't mind seeing if the 4-10 spots in the rotation couldn't be thinned out a little by picking up some A or AA guys that could be the next generation of this level.
Though he is not the type to do this, I also wouldn't mind seeing if the 4-10 spots in the rotation couldn't be thinned out a little by picking up some A or AA guys that could be the next generation of this level.
They'll certainly try to move one of the bad 2014 deals, but it's hard to expect any success there. Realistically, apart from looking for a bullpen arm and/or maybe moving Miley, it's hard to imagine what more they can do from here.
On another subject, with that lineup it looks like they'll be among the preseason favorites, and the hype machine will be running full bore. I hope Farrell knows how to manage a team under such weighty expectations.
Lets see
- will Castillo hit enough to be the regular LF
- will JBJ hit enough .. Which really doesn't require much - to be the regular CF
- will Pablo not be the worst player in baseball
- will Hanley not be the second worst player in baseball.
You have to think that all of these are likely outcomes .. So it just comes down to degree. But I can say with 100% certainty that Sandoval will not repeat his 2015 .. why? Because he won't get the chance to. Either Shaw or Holt will get his ABs. The same is true for Hanley.
as for Castillo .. How much does he have to hit to be a useful player given his defensive abilities. Maybe an ops of .750?
And Bradley? I think clearing a .700 ops makes him a good player.
So I guess I don't see these glaring holes. Sure there are question marks .. But it's easy to fix them.
As for remaining moves .. before the Price signing I thought Miley was going to be the one to go. And I still think this. Could Miley fetch the likes of Herrera?
That's a logical suggestion in a vacuum, although KC's organizational plan revolves a lot around a shut-down bullpen. Fans probably wouldn't like it. But statistically speaking, Miley was worth double that of Herrera this year, and would probably do fine in a spacious park with a strong D.
I'd love to see them sign Sipp and bump Layne or Ross, but that might be getting greedy. Otherwise, let's enjoy the winter and then go to war.
I would add Mr. Anderson to your list of three. I really want to see that kid pitch at Fenway for the Red Sox.
Let's not overreact here. The Red Sox had the 4th or 5th best offense in the AL last season with the corpse of Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino getting almost 500 ABs. The only real "question marks" involve immovable objects Hanley and Pablo. You expect Betts, Xander and Swihart to keep growing as most 22 and 23-year-old players do. Castillo is also still learning and really came on in the end last year and you'd hope for him to continue.
Every team has "major question marks" leading up to opening day. However, we have top offensive players at DH, SS, RF and catcher.
I'd say the part of our team with the LEAST question marks would be our lineup.
I'd like a little more bullpen help and I don't like the idea of using Kelly there so I'd argue that there's a trade to be made that sends a starting pitcher somewhere for something and another arm to add, but for the most part, yeah, we're done. Trading a starter can and maybe should wait until spring training for health reasons so signing a bullpen guy is really just about it before march.
Tony Sipp who Papelbon's Poutine mentioned no more than 7 posts above this...would be an awesome pickup. LH setup man in the Houston pen and this past year got both Lefties (.227/.290/.309) and Righties (.190/.243/.370) out. Over the last three he's had a very slight reverse split LH OPS against .642 and RH OPS against .611.
(I didn't quote, but this is in response to BCsMightyJoeYoung.)
Two thoughts:
Two thoughts:
- Bradley doesn't have to break a .700 OPS to be useful in CF. Remember, he was above replacement level in 2014, with a .531. His glove with a .650 OPS is a respectable player. His glove with a .750 OPS is an elite player, and I think he can do that.
- Miley is worth a lot, with his IP track record and favorable contract. If we're dealing pitching, I think I would rather turn him into a high-end prospect, to either develop or flip for a need midseason.
Correct me if I'm wrong (and I'm sure someone will), but the way I see it is the Sox have 4 guys that will be in the bullpen: Kimbrel, Ue, Taz and Ross. That leaves 3 spots. Of the potential bullpen arms, I think that there are 6 guys that are likely to make the cut: Layne, Kelly, Barnes, Wright, Workman and Escobar.
According to Sox Prospects, Escobar and Wright have no options left, the other 4 have 1 or more option. Considering that the 2016 Sox are likely better with those two than without them (via return on trade or DFA) and that they fit two roles (2nd lefty and swing man), I'd reason they have the inside track on two of those spots.
That leaves the other 3 guys fighting for 1 spot. Unless, the Sox plan on going with 3 LHP, the last spot likely comes down to Barnes, Kelly and Workman. WIth Workman coming off injury and starting pitching depth in AAA thin behind Owens and Johnson (also coming off injury), I see him as the longshot and the Sox instead stretching him out in AAA. So, that leaves Kelly and Barnes. I could see either guy making it. However, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if the Sox wanted to continue to shoot for Kelly's upside and send him down to AAA to start. This would allow him to continue his work from 2015 and gain some confidence. It would also let Owens continue to get reps and slide in as the 7th starter and Johnson rehab and fall in as the 8th. I think this may even be likely if Barnes performs well out of spring training.
As for your last question about DD being done. My guess is that he likely is done with the 25 man roster, but may make a few peripheral moves to the 40-man. He came in with a plan - acquire a frontline starter and a high leverage reliever through trade and free agency and acquire a RHH 4th OF - and he executed it by getting the best of each available.
There is a possibility that he either trades a starter or trades for a starter. However, SP depth is important this year with EdRo, Porcello and Buchholz filling in between Price and Miley and the cost for a starter seems prohibitive based on the Sox moving to trade some high leverage pieces for a reliever, so I don't think either type of trade will happen before spring training. Th
In my opinion Papi retiring rules out moving Hanley at all.
With DH opening up after this year and the loss of lineup thump (not that there would necessarily be a lot left in Papis tank in 2017 and onwards) I can't see them moving him especially as it would be sell low (as already mentioned).
With DH opening up after this year and the loss of lineup thump (not that there would necessarily be a lot left in Papis tank in 2017 and onwards) I can't see them moving him especially as it would be sell low (as already mentioned).
Ortiz is going to be playing out his age 40 season, Pedroia will be a year older, Xander's breakout season came on the back of a .372 babip, and Bradley/Castillo ( the latter who hit .194/.236/.232 for September btw) are hardly a sure thing to be that improvement over the corpses of Napoli and Victorino.
I wasn't really arguing against a notion that *most* teams have their own major question marks leading up to opening day. Just pointing out and as Smastroyin stated in his as a whole evaluation, for as good as this lineup looks on paper there seems to be a significant amount of bust potential attached to it. If DD can find a reasonable way to downgrade that risk I'm personally in favor of such, and am expecting him to do so is all.
You certainly were arguing against that notion. Rather than comparing the Red Sox lineup on paper right now to other lineups on paper right now, which is all we can do during the offseason, you are comparing the Red Sox lineup to a mythic one where everyone is healthy, trending up, and above average. And no team has that. Not even the Blue Jays. You could go down Toronto's roster tick by tick and point out 5 or 6 players with a chance to get hurt or suck in 2016. And yet, they project to have the best offense in baseball. To some degree, every team has to "roll the dice" every year on human baseball players, who are by their nature impossible to predict with certainty. But I think it's hard to make the case that the projected Red Sox lineup carries significantly more risk than any of the other clubs intent on winning in 2016.
I agree with what NDame616 said: the lineup, especially with Shaw, Holt, and Young on the bench, is the least of our problems. There is very good offensive talent 1-9 and the bench is deep. Not sure what else you are expecting.
Where did I make an outside comparison to anybody, much less this mythical team you speak of.
You do also realize that your same general argument being presented there about our offense could probably been made on the pitching staff....before we just went out and signed David Price. Right? Heck, it's actually somewhat similar (imo) to the one that was indeed commonly made last winter. I mean if DD is going to make every individual upgrade decision primarily based on how they compare up against the rest of the league as a whole, our pitching staff was already probably "good enough" in the potential department...so why bother. Oh that's right, the ultimate goal is to field a team that is better then everybody else, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with trying to improve your chances of doing that when the reasonable possibility presents itself.
Again, and to repeat the fairly relevant 2nd half you conveniently cut off: Just pointing out that for as good as this lineup looks on paper there seems to be a significant amount of bust potential attached to it. If DD can find a reasonable way to downgrade that risk I'm personally in favor of such, and am expecting him to do so is all.
So with the Price and Young signings, are the Sox done?
C: Swihart
1b: Hanley
2b: Pedroia
3b: Sandoval
SS: X
LF: Castillo
CF: JBJ
RF: Betts
DH: Ortiz
Backup C: Hannigan
Util IF: Holt
4th OF: Young
Util IF/OF: Shaw
SP: Price
SP: Porcello
SP: Buccholz
SP: EdRod
SP: Miley
CL: Kimbrel
SU: Koji
SU: Tazawa
MR: Ross
MR: Layne
SP/MR: Kelly
Vazquez and Workman hopefully get healthy at some point, plus Owens, Hembree, Brian Johnson, Wright, Noe Ramirez can fight for bullpen slots.
I don't see any big needs left, so I'm guessing any remaining moves would be to get out from contracts (Panda/Hanley) and replace them, or try to upgrade somewhere (mid/back of bullpen? end of rotation? not really clear where else this is viable). I'm generally happy letting the kids fight over the end of the bullpen spots, and I'd be pretty shocked if they can improve their rotation further (short of including Miley plus an uncomfortable package of prospects for Carrasco), so it really feels like it's December 2nd and we have a pretty good sense of what the team should look like come April, save injuries.
C: Swihart
1b: Hanley
2b: Pedroia
3b: Sandoval
SS: X
LF: Castillo
CF: JBJ
RF: Betts
DH: Ortiz
Backup C: Hannigan
Util IF: Holt
4th OF: Young
Util IF/OF: Shaw
SP: Price
SP: Porcello
SP: Buccholz
SP: EdRod
SP: Miley
CL: Kimbrel
SU: Koji
SU: Tazawa
MR: Ross
MR: Layne
SP/MR: Kelly
Vazquez and Workman hopefully get healthy at some point, plus Owens, Hembree, Brian Johnson, Wright, Noe Ramirez can fight for bullpen slots.
I don't see any big needs left, so I'm guessing any remaining moves would be to get out from contracts (Panda/Hanley) and replace them, or try to upgrade somewhere (mid/back of bullpen? end of rotation? not really clear where else this is viable). I'm generally happy letting the kids fight over the end of the bullpen spots, and I'd be pretty shocked if they can improve their rotation further (short of including Miley plus an uncomfortable package of prospects for Carrasco), so it really feels like it's December 2nd and we have a pretty good sense of what the team should look like come April, save injuries.
I want one to two more bullpen power arms who can actually strike people out in jams and handle high leverage situations in general.
Taz has to be creeping up on some sort of arm issue with all his wear and tear and repeated 2nd half ineffectiveness.
If it means moving a nice piece - so be it. There is a dearth of power arms in their system. Not even guys whose stuff may play up when being moved out of the starter role. There are some fringe candidates like Barnes, Hembree, and the two fellas in AAA but would rather not go into the season thinking a guy like Alexi Ogando was the solution.
I still want Lind too, as he is the perfect bridge guy and balances the lineup.
Taz has to be creeping up on some sort of arm issue with all his wear and tear and repeated 2nd half ineffectiveness.
If it means moving a nice piece - so be it. There is a dearth of power arms in their system. Not even guys whose stuff may play up when being moved out of the starter role. There are some fringe candidates like Barnes, Hembree, and the two fellas in AAA but would rather not go into the season thinking a guy like Alexi Ogando was the solution.
I still want Lind too, as he is the perfect bridge guy and balances the lineup.
https://twitter.com/PeteAbe
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 24m24 minutes ago
Dombrowski said the #RedSox were likely done with “major moves” this offseason
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 24m24 minutes ago
Dombrowski said the #RedSox were likely done with “major moves” this offseason
I'd venture to guess that claim holds up as far as free agent signings go. Maybe we check in on some smaller guys like Sipp or Parra (if we end up dealing Castillo), but I doubt DD takes the same gung ho approach on acquiring anything else out of FA with a highly competitive interest surrounding it.
I still really like the concept of a LHB starting corner outfielder though, especially after signing Young. One who can bat 5th (ideally pushing Panda down to 7th in that lineup posted above) and offers better middle of the order insurance to Hanley busting out. Wouldn't be surprised in the least to see us attached to names like CarGo and Reddick if/when they start popping up as being on the trade block.
Joe Kelly seems like a good candidate to be dealt as well imo. I personally like him as a bullpen arm, but we looked to give zero thought to that last year and I seem to recall a few people making a decent case that he wouldn't project well there. Don't see us trading Miley, and not sure they'll go the stash Kelly in AAA route now that he's due some non-min money. Like my overall thoughts on Castillo, Kelly probably could make for a better overall fit elsewhere.
I still really like the concept of a LHB starting corner outfielder though, especially after signing Young. One who can bat 5th (ideally pushing Panda down to 7th in that lineup posted above) and offers better middle of the order insurance to Hanley busting out. Wouldn't be surprised in the least to see us attached to names like CarGo and Reddick if/when they start popping up as being on the trade block.
Joe Kelly seems like a good candidate to be dealt as well imo. I personally like him as a bullpen arm, but we looked to give zero thought to that last year and I seem to recall a few people making a decent case that he wouldn't project well there. Don't see us trading Miley, and not sure they'll go the stash Kelly in AAA route now that he's due some non-min money. Like my overall thoughts on Castillo, Kelly probably could make for a better overall fit elsewhere.
Know what? Despite my musings about Miley and his dominant hand, I could easily be on board for stopping here.
Assumption 1: Bullpen depth is created, not bought
Assumption 2: Neither Ramirez nor Sandoval are going to bring anything of value back, and their absence just creates more holes
Assumption 3: BBC has such potential upside that it'd be foolish to go a different route before 1/3 of the season has passed
Assumption 4: Any other needs will be addressed at the non-waiver deadline
Assumption 5: They're not signing Greinke or Cueto this week
Assumption 1: Bullpen depth is created, not bought
Assumption 2: Neither Ramirez nor Sandoval are going to bring anything of value back, and their absence just creates more holes
Assumption 3: BBC has such potential upside that it'd be foolish to go a different route before 1/3 of the season has passed
Assumption 4: Any other needs will be addressed at the non-waiver deadline
Assumption 5: They're not signing Greinke or Cueto this week
100% agree. Great post and to the point.
Unless the RS get bowled over with an offer that is not going to happen (Punto deal for Panda), I think the moves from here on out will be minor.
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan 25s26 seconds ago
Potentially great arm out there to be had: Marlins have non-tendered Henderson Alvarez, source tells Yahoo Sports.
Potentially great arm out there to be had: Marlins have non-tendered Henderson Alvarez, source tells Yahoo Sports.
This could end up being interesting. I'm not sure he fits the DD profile but could really help out in the back end of the rotation
Pass. He was one or two starts from completely blowing out his arm last year. He also had shoulder surgery.
From 5-22-15
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that Henderson Alvarez has been pitching through a "90 percent tear" of his right ulnar collateral ligament "for years."
It makes it less painful going foward but if its possible to trade him now, you do it without hesitation.
Why is that?
Is he blocking someone who would be better?
Not to save money unless you get some sucker to pay most (no way does anyone pay all of it) of his contract.
Whats so great about him to keep him around? Doesnt have a position as of yet, his contract is terrible, his attitude as well. He is injury prone. And he is a DH-to-be, dont see whats so valuable about that to keep him if we can unload him right away.
Power right handed bat. An elite one regularly in the not too distant past.
DH-to-be when we have a DH position wide open after this upcoming season, and if/when an ageing Papi gets a DL stint.
And the terrible contract cuts both ways. Guys on terrible contracts have a habit of being hard to get rid of.
I was more thinking Carter or Alvarez as a bench role. They strike out too much but the power would be a useful tool off the bench. Though some team will most likley offer them a DH role.
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I have to think the non-tenderings of Carter and Alvarez are going to put a serious damper on the Hanley trade market (to the extent that it existed).
I would look into an incentive based deal with a 2017 team option for Greg Holland. He just recently had TJ surgery so there is clearly some risk, but a fully recovered Holland would be perfect to replace Koji, along side Kimbrel in 2017...... Anyone know what kind of relationship (if any) Bannister might have with him to maybe help facilitate a deal?
What sort of incentives do you offer a guy who is going to miss the season? And why would he settle for a team option instead of guaranteed money?
Someone will sign him to a 2 year deal paying him the minimum in 2016 and a large guaranteed salary in 2017 and that team wont be the Sox.
It probably barely existed, and I agree that the availability of those two probably comes close to killing it for the time being. While it's true that Hanley's demonstrated ceiling is considerably higher than either of those guys, at this point it's not at all clear that he can reach that ceiling again or stay there for long. No reason for a team to take on that contract until he's shown that he can do that, especially when those two guys are now available for pennies on the dollar.
(Incidentally, doing a FG comparison shows that Carter and Alvarez are remarkably similar hitters. Same age, similar skill sets, closely aligned career arcs--their graph lines are joined at the hip.)